Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Trump fails to win tonight then his bid will effectively

124678

Comments

  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    SeanT said:

    How many people are now actually run over and killed by people "just over" the limit?

    I'd hazard a guess it's somewhere around zero. So this new, more draconian policy will save no people.

    Britain has some of the safest roads in the world (which is good). But if people are still being mowed down by drunken murdering fools, it is because these irresponsible, uninsured bastards just don't give a fuck, and would drink three bottles of vodka, then drive, kill a kid, and drive on, so what.

    This tightening won't deter them, any more than the present laws do. I fail to see the logic.


    Indeed, it will just hurt normal people with draconian punishments for being slightly over the limit - banned from driving and punitive insurance later - while the real culprits won't give a F.

    Having children distracting you in the car can be just as dangerous.

    And I speak as someone who avoids alcohol entirely when I drive.

    Your last sentence says it all though. What's the attraction of drinking some homeopathic amount of booze in the first place? Just share the driving around, punish the J2O when it's your turn. What's the problem?
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    NEW: 2/3 of New Hampshire GOP voters favor temporarily banning Muslims who are not US citizens from entry, per preliminary exit poll results

    If that's true, that has to be good for Trump.

    Why would they vote for anyone else?

    Could be a Trumpslide..
    With £1,600 available to lay Trump I thought the Trump Train may have derailed.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Speedy said:

    NEW: 2/3 of New Hampshire GOP voters favor temporarily banning Muslims who are not US citizens from entry, per preliminary exit poll results

    But how many of them will vote for the only guy proposing that ?
    Fewer than you'd think.

    There is a great West Wing episode where Joh Lyman gets mad at polls because they indicate that some people think one thing but then vote diametrically opposite.

    One of my closest mates couldn't be more Tory. He'd make Redwood look like a liberal. But he thinks that his views match with socialism.

    I despair.

  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/voted-live-hampshire-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=36805930

    "Nearly half of Republicans say they’re looking for a candidate from “outside the political establishment” – sentiment that’s boosted Donald Trump in Iowa and in national polls alike. On the Democratic side, fewer, about a quarter, are looking for an outsider.

    As usual for New Hampshire, turnout by evangelicals is lower than in Iowa, where they were key to Ted Cruz’s first-place finish. Evangelicals account for about a quarter of Republican voters in these preliminary New Hampshire results, vs. 64 percent in Iowa.

    Strong conservatives account for three in 10 GOP voters in New Hampshire, vs. 40 percent in Iowa. That said, three-quarters in New Hampshire are conservatives overall in these preliminary results, up sharply from 53 percent in the 2012 primary."
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005

    NH EXIT POLL: Which candidate Democrats support can depend on voters' age #Decision2016 pic.twitter.com/4LABnSgAOY

    (I have no way to verify these!)

    I'm really not surprised at the support for Sanders amongst under 30s.

    It's quite heartening and definitely tugs at my inner lefty.
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    NH EXIT POLL: Which candidate Democrats support can depend on voters' age #Decision2016 pic.twitter.com/4LABnSgAOY

    (I have no way to verify these!)

    I'm really not surprised at the support for Sanders amongst under 30s.

    It's quite heartening and definitely tugs at my inner lefty.
    You have an inner lefty?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    edited February 2016

    Pulpstar said:

    NH EXIT POLL: Which candidate Democrats support can depend on voters' age #Decision2016 pic.twitter.com/4LABnSgAOY

    (I have no way to verify these!)

    I'm really not surprised at the support for Sanders amongst under 30s.

    It's quite heartening and definitely tugs at my inner lefty.
    You have an inner lefty?
    Yeah on some stuff I definitely dress to the left.

    I'm glad I don't have a stupid amount of debt from uni for instance. I think the £12k I graduated with was fair enough, but people under 30 have eye watering amounts. Even bigger amounts in the US.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If Bush wins New Hampshire...

    You know the drill, trampoline time for betting markets.
    I'm not big on "picking up pennies in front of the bulldozer", so I never lay outsiders. It's just a stupid way of tying up capital.
    Strange, the most successful gambling traders I know, who dominate Betfair, consider that easy money
    For all those of us of very little brain, can you tell me what "picking up pennies in front of the bulldozer" means please?
    Roberts phrase, but I am supposing it means laying big outsiders
    Someone laid my 3000/1 £1 ew on LCFC winning the league. That is picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer!
    Not if you lay that bet 6000 times and only pay out once.
    If its your thing, I make Costa about 4000/1 to be top Prem scorer and there is £11 wanting to take 99s on the exchanges....
    I am watching TGS fairly closely. There are a few contenders, though Jamie looks in fine fettle. Any of Lukaku, Kane or Aguero could pinch it from him.
    Yeah Im so glad I emailed you Vardy was a good bet at 33/1 and you said cheers and didn't get me any!
    I tipped on here a number of Leicester City bets. Winner at 20/1 and Top 4 finish at 2/1 as recently as the end of December.

    Arsenal are a decent side so I don't think there is much value at 9/2 on Leicester win this weekend.
    Yes but I said "Have you got a PP acc?"

    You said "Yes"

    I said "Vardy ew at 33s is a great bet, Ill have any you don't want..."

    Still waiting!! :neutral:
    I mis-understand, have you no PP a/c?

    If so then sorry!
    Ha that's it! Nevermind, maybe I wasn't clear

    Still a decent bet at 5/2 IMO, as is Leicester top scoring side at 6/1
    After Sunday we have no more top 4 sides to play (though both ManU and Chelsea away) the rest of our matches are mostly lower half sides. I reckon 7 wins and 3 draws to clinch the title out of 13 remaining matches.
  • Options
    Exit poll: fra chi non aveva mai votato alle primarie Trump 36% Kasich 18% Cruz 13% Rubio 13% #NHprimary

    That's "vote among people who haven't voted before" (which is itself, according to another tweet, 13%).
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Mortimer said:

    Speedy said:

    NEW: 2/3 of New Hampshire GOP voters favor temporarily banning Muslims who are not US citizens from entry, per preliminary exit poll results

    But how many of them will vote for the only guy proposing that ?
    Fewer than you'd think.

    There is a great West Wing episode where Joh Lyman gets mad at polls because they indicate that some people think one thing but then vote diametrically opposite.

    One of my closest mates couldn't be more Tory. He'd make Redwood look like a liberal. But he thinks that his views match with socialism.

    I despair.

    daveweigel ‏@daveweigel 24h24 hours ago
    Talked to a voter at Rubio rally who disliked Cruz bc he had been a Gang of 8 member then flipped. Had to inform him he mixed up his Cubans.

    daveweigel ‏@daveweigel 24h24 hours ago
    So, having just explained to me why he didn't expect Cruz's flip, once it was RUBIO's flip, he immediately justified it. lol nothing matters
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838


    After Sunday we have no more top 4 sides to play (though both ManU and Chelsea away) the rest of our matches are mostly lower half sides. I reckon 7 wins and 3 draws to clinch the title out of 13 remaining matches.

    It's the losses in games you expect to win that crush title dreams. Just sayin'
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Pulpstar said:

    NH EXIT POLL: Which candidate Democrats support can depend on voters' age #Decision2016 pic.twitter.com/4LABnSgAOY

    (I have no way to verify these!)

    I'm really not surprised at the support for Sanders amongst under 30s.

    It's quite heartening and definitely tugs at my inner lefty.
    You have an inner lefty?
    Everyone has an inner lefty. Wouldn't it be lovely to spend infinite amounts of money just by taxing the rich?
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,753

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If Bush wins New Hampshire...

    You know the drill, trampoline time for betting markets.
    I'm not big on "picking up pennies in front of the bulldozer", so I never lay outsiders. It's just a stupid way of tying up capital.
    Strange, the most successful gambling traders I know, who dominate Betfair, consider that easy money
    For all those of us of very little brain, can you tell me what "picking up pennies in front of the bulldozer" means please?
    Roberts phrase, but I am supposing it means laying big outsiders
    Someone laid my 3000/1 £1 ew on LCFC winning the league. That is picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer!
    Not if you lay that bet 6000 times and only pay out once.
    If its your thing, I make Costa about 4000/1 to be top Prem scorer and there is £11 wanting to take 99s on the exchanges....
    I am watching TGS fairly closely. There are a few contenders, though Jamie looks in fine fettle. Any of Lukaku, Kane or Aguero could pinch it from him.
    Yeah Im so glad I emailed you Vardy was a good bet at 33/1 and you said cheers and didn't get me any!
    I tipped on here a number of Leicester City bets. Winner at 20/1 and Top 4 finish at 2/1 as recently as the end of December.

    Arsenal are a decent side so I don't think there is much value at 9/2 on Leicester win this weekend.
    Yes but I said "Have you got a PP acc?"

    You said "Yes"

    I said "Vardy ew at 33s is a great bet, Ill have any you don't want..."

    Still waiting!! :neutral:
    I mis-understand, have you no PP a/c?

    If so then sorry!
    Ha that's it! Nevermind, maybe I wasn't clear

    Still a decent bet at 5/2 IMO, as is Leicester top scoring side at 6/1
    After Sunday we have no more top 4 sides to play (though both ManU and Chelsea away) the rest of our matches are mostly lower half sides. I reckon 7 wins and 3 draws to clinch the title out of 13 remaining matches.
    I'm sure you never thought you'd be posting that!

  • Options
    NH Exit poll: Trump does best among self described GOP moderates - winning 34% of them.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Exit poll: fra chi non aveva mai votato alle primarie Trump 36% Kasich 18% Cruz 13% Rubio 13% #NHprimary

    That's "vote among people who haven't voted before" (which is itself, according to another tweet, 13%).

    Hmm - surely Trump would've been hoping for more than that, given how crucial "non-voters" were to his overall polling numbers?
  • Options
    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    EPG said:

    Terrible.
    What about the God-given right to drive around a public road after consuming intoxicating drugs.
    Brexit will probably save the UK from drink driving laws too.

    Erm what have drink driving laws got to do with the EU. You are aware aren't you that the Scots have already reduced to 50µg/100ml blood?
  • Options
    Phuket. I'm tired, and I'm ill.

    If I lose money, I lose money.

    I'm going to bed. Good luck nightowls.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005

    Phuket. I'm tired, and I'm ill.

    If I lose money, I lose money.

    I'm going to bed. Good luck nightowls.

    Goodnight mate
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    BBC Newsnight ✔ @BBCNewsnight
    Do you think (benefits brake) would put anybody off coming here? "No. Frankly not.": Jose Manuel Barroso #Newsnight
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/new-hampshire-early-exit-poll-results-are-democrats-more-liberal-n515011

    "In 2008 in New Hampshire, 20 percent identified as "very liberal" — this year, 26 percent see themselves that way. Overall, liberals in the New Hampshire Democratic primary are up from 56 percent in 2008 to 68 percent today."

    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/new-hampshire-exit-poll-results-new-hampshire-republicans-look-very-n515006

  • Options
    John_M said:

    Pulpstar said:

    NH EXIT POLL: Which candidate Democrats support can depend on voters' age #Decision2016 pic.twitter.com/4LABnSgAOY

    (I have no way to verify these!)

    I'm really not surprised at the support for Sanders amongst under 30s.

    It's quite heartening and definitely tugs at my inner lefty.
    You have an inner lefty?
    Everyone has an inner lefty. Wouldn't it be lovely to spend infinite amounts of money just by taxing the rich?
    I don't. I'm very right-wing.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005

    NH Exit poll: Trump does best among self described GOP moderates - winning 34% of them.

    Which twitter or w/e are you following for this.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,753

    NH Exit poll: Trump does best among self described GOP moderates - winning 34% of them.

    God help us when the 'ban all muslims' candidate is the choice of moderates.

    The USA is truly a world away from the UK.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    John_M said:


    Everyone has an inner lefty. Wouldn't it be lovely to spend infinite amounts of money just by taxing the rich?

    https://twitter.com/ninjaeconomics/status/697190629776883712
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    NH Exit poll: Trump does best among self described GOP moderates - winning 34% of them.

    Which twitter or w/e are you following for this.
    I've got tweet deck doing a search for "Exit poll"
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    Scott_P said:

    John_M said:


    Everyone has an inner lefty. Wouldn't it be lovely to spend infinite amounts of money just by taxing the rich?

    https://twitter.com/ninjaeconomics/status/697190629776883712
    I was bang centre (Auth/liberal), and one square to the right when I took that test last.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Wanderer said:


    After Sunday we have no more top 4 sides to play (though both ManU and Chelsea away) the rest of our matches are mostly lower half sides. I reckon 7 wins and 3 draws to clinch the title out of 13 remaining matches.

    It's the losses in games you expect to win that crush title dreams. Just sayin'
    I have been watching Leicester City for many years, and certainly seen some surprising defeats, but the current side and tactics are a class above, but we shall see.

  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    NH Exit poll: Trump does best among self described GOP moderates - winning 34% of them.

    Only 24% are moderate though.
  • Options
    Half of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire say they’d be satisfied with Trump as the eventual nominee, vs. about four in 10 for Rubio and Cruz alik
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    Speedy said:

    NH Exit poll: Trump does best among self described GOP moderates - winning 34% of them.

    Only 24% are moderate though.
    So we know Trump will beat Chris Christie at this point.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    https://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/697187881907957761

    Get your calculators.
    1/7th are under 30.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    I'd laugh my socks off if Cruz has won this.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Off topic. Amazon have just released a game engine (Lumberyard). Love this clause in the ToS:

    57.10 Acceptable Use; Safety-Critical Systems. Your use of the Lumberyard Materials must comply with the AWS Acceptable Use Policy. The Lumberyard Materials are not intended for use with life-critical or safety-critical systems, such as use in operation of medical equipment, automated transportation systems, autonomous vehicles, aircraft or air traffic control, nuclear facilities, manned spacecraft, or military use in connection with live combat.

    However, this restriction will not apply in the event of the occurrence (certified by the United States Centers for Disease Control or successor body) of a widespread viral infection transmitted via bites or contact with bodily fluids that causes human corpses to reanimate and seek to consume living human flesh, blood, brain or nerve tissue and is likely to result in the fall of organized civilization.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    Speedy said:
    That is a definite win for Bernie.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    I'm -500 Christie GOP nom, +1500 POTUS :D
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Speedy said:

    https://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/697187881907957761

    Get your calculators.
    1/7th are under 30.

    The 65 or over looks pretty respectable for sanders.

    Any idea of the exit poll sample size?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187
    edited February 2016

    NH Exit poll: Trump does best among self described GOP moderates - winning 34% of them.

    God help us when the 'ban all muslims' candidate is the choice of moderates.

    The USA is truly a world away from the UK.
    That is GOP moderates, Americans as a whole disagreed with Trump's comments by 46% to 40%, Republicans backed the idea 66% to 24%. As for the UK the majority disagreed with his comments too by 64% to 25% but UKIP voters backed Trump's comments by 61% to 32%!
    http://www.infowars.com/poll-most-voters-in-us-agree-with-trump-on-muslim-ban/
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/12/09/brits-oppose-muslim-policy-pockets-approval/
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016

    Half of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire say they’d be satisfied with Trump as the eventual nominee, vs. about four in 10 for Rubio and Cruz alik

    They really don't like Rubio and Cruz there.
    That talk about abortion and God may be good for Iowa but is a bad fit for N.H.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    John_M said:

    Off topic. Amazon have just released a game engine (Lumberyard). Love this clause in the ToS:

    57.10 Acceptable Use; Safety-Critical Systems. Your use of the Lumberyard Materials must comply with the AWS Acceptable Use Policy. The Lumberyard Materials are not intended for use with life-critical or safety-critical systems, such as use in operation of medical equipment, automated transportation systems, autonomous vehicles, aircraft or air traffic control, nuclear facilities, manned spacecraft, or military use in connection with live combat.

    However, this restriction will not apply in the event of the occurrence (certified by the United States Centers for Disease Control or successor body) of a widespread viral infection transmitted via bites or contact with bodily fluids that causes human corpses to reanimate and seek to consume living human flesh, blood, brain or nerve tissue and is likely to result in the fall of organized civilization.

    So what games are we supposed to play mid zombie apocalypse? Have these people no sense?
  • Options
    FNC Exit Poll pic.twitter.com/GmD4B4sewg among late deciders (numbers looks suspicious though)
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    edited February 2016
    Remember @Pong, the CNN exit had Trump as a 1-10 shot you reckoned 'if accurate' in Iowa.

    They CAN be wrong !
  • Options
    Fox News exit poll: Trump at 29% among indies, Kasich 18%, Bush 14%, Cruz 13%

    Exit poll: Late deciders go to Kasich21 Trump21 Bush13 Rubio13
    Shares values Cruz 23 Kasich 18 bush & Rubio 15
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005

    FNC Exit Poll pic.twitter.com/GmD4B4sewg among late deciders (numbers looks suspicious though)

    Bush on 13% you mean ;p ?

    Trump did terribly with late breakers in Iowa don't forget so that looks pretty good for him.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    CNN's Wolf Blitzer just called Rubio a bunch of malfunctioning circuit boards.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    edited February 2016
    John_M said:

    Off topic. Amazon have just released a game engine (Lumberyard). Love this clause in the ToS:

    57.10 Acceptable Use; Safety-Critical Systems. Your use of the Lumberyard Materials must comply with the AWS Acceptable Use Policy. The Lumberyard Materials are not intended for use with life-critical or safety-critical systems, such as use in operation of medical equipment, automated transportation systems, autonomous vehicles, aircraft or air traffic control, nuclear facilities, manned spacecraft, or military use in connection with live combat.

    However, this restriction will not apply in the event of the occurrence (certified by the United States Centers for Disease Control or successor body) of a widespread viral infection transmitted via bites or contact with bodily fluids that causes human corpses to reanimate and seek to consume living human flesh, blood, brain or nerve tissue and is likely to result in the fall of organized civilization.

    More evidence that Amazon ain't interested in the business of flogging books and crap made in China long term. Somebody else can do that, while they have the cloud tech and the logistics tech.

    I wonder how much they had to play Crytek to license the core CryEngine tech. Given their recent financial troubles, surprised they didn't just buy them.
  • Options
    Speedy said:

    CNN's Wolf Blitzer just called Rubio a bunch of malfunctioning circuit boards.

    Wolf Blitzer - great name!
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016

    Fox News exit poll: Trump at 29% among indies, Kasich 18%, Bush 14%, Cruz 13%

    Exit poll: Late deciders go to Kasich21 Trump21 Bush13 Rubio13
    Shares values Cruz 23 Kasich 18 bush & Rubio 15

    Late deciders are around 40-45%, same number for independents.
    And Trump does better with republicans than independents according to other parts of the exit polls.

    If Rubio does 2 times better with republicans than independents and Kasich the reverse, you know the math.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,372
    FWIW (replying to SeanT), Finland does have a nice simple 0 alcohol limit for drivers (actually I think it's 0.01 or something to allow for people who inadvertently take some item that has a tiny element of alcohol). I have no idea whether it's popular, or has resulted in very low accident rates. But I do know lots of people who simply don't drink and drive, rather than fret about units and hours since last meal and all that stuff.

    Back on topic, was that 51-48 report for Sanders confirmed? Sounds like a Clinton moral win if so.
  • Options

    FWIW (replying to SeanT), Finland does have a nice simple 0 alcohol limit for drivers (actually I think it's 0.01 or something to allow for people who inadvertently take some item that has a tiny element of alcohol). I have no idea whether it's popular, or has resulted in very low accident rates. But I do know lots of people who simply don't drink and drive, rather than fret about units and hours since last meal and all that stuff.

    Back on topic, was that 51-48 report for Sanders confirmed? Sounds like a Clinton moral win if so.

    Very much not confirmed. Level of Sanders victory far from clear at the moment.

    (Also - I know plenty of 20 somethings who literally don't drink if they are driving that evening. Although some will still have alcohol in the blood the morning after the night before.)
  • Options

    FWIW (replying to SeanT), Finland does have a nice simple 0 alcohol limit for drivers (actually I think it's 0.01 or something to allow for people who inadvertently take some item that has a tiny element of alcohol). I have no idea whether it's popular, or has resulted in very low accident rates. But I do know lots of people who simply don't drink and drive, rather than fret about units and hours since last meal and all that stuff.

    Back on topic, was that 51-48 report for Sanders confirmed? Sounds like a Clinton moral win if so.

    If I am arrested here in Japan for drink driving I will be sacked from my job. It's a pretty good incentive not to take any chances. The limit is also v.low, so there's no debate about just the one etc.

    You can also get a special taxi service that takes you and drives your car home too.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    This bloody exit poll is like a cryptic crossword and fucking sudoku rolled into 1.
  • Options
    Exit Poll compared to FPU poll (Sanders +7): Sanders improves by 13% in under age 30. Clinton improves by 5% in 65+. #NHPrimary
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Some idiot on CNN has said that "Bloomberg although he wont win a single state will try to get delegates to throw the presidential election to the house of representatives".

    It's the Electoral College and you get electoral votes only by winning states you idiot, it's not a primary.
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    This bloody exit poll is like a cryptic crossword and fucking sudoku rolled into 1.

    The stuff they are releases is everything but the bottom line numbers. I am seriously waiting for them to report "boxers or briefs" %'s before the real numbers.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    This bloody exit poll is like a cryptic crossword and fucking sudoku rolled into 1.

    Why not just spit out the result!
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    THIS IS A GUESS:

    Trump 28
    Kasich 15
    Rubio 14
    Bush 13
    Cruz 12 ?!
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    This bloody exit poll is like a cryptic crossword and fucking sudoku rolled into 1.

    When I was younger I used to go a lot of puzzles, which had a big chart where you had to get {name, choice of sandwich; choice of venue} where Jane doesn't want the same sandwich as the person who is going to the park.

    Reminds me of that.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016

    Exit Poll compared to FPU poll (Sanders +7): Sanders improves by 13% in under age 30. Clinton improves by 5% in 65+. #NHPrimary

    FPU poll?
    Oh.

    Sanders 51+7=58%
    So that's Hillary 42% then.
  • Options
    NH predicts : Bernie by 20, Trump by 10 (MOE +/- 3)
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Pulpstar said:

    This bloody exit poll is like a cryptic crossword and fucking sudoku rolled into 1.

    The stuff they are releases is everything but the bottom line numbers. I am seriously waiting for them to report "boxers or briefs" %'s before the real numbers.
    Imagine they had done this on May 7th here.

    "The number of predicted Liberal Democrat seats is a palindrome adding up to one more than the sum of the digits of the Conservative seats ..."
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    This bloody exit poll is like a cryptic crossword and fucking sudoku rolled into 1.

    It's detective work, I love it.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,372
    So what's the timing again - CNN finally cough up at 12 our time, and actual results at 3?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005

    NH predicts : Bernie by 20, Trump by 10 (MOE +/- 3)

    Who is second in GOP race tho xD

    And that looks to be a stonking result for Bernie.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016

    NH predicts : Bernie by 20, Trump by 10 (MOE +/- 3)

    Could be.
    We know that Sanders is leading by 16 in one exit poll.

    And Trump leading by 11 with the 40-45% of independents.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2016
    edit
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,372
    Interesting and good that there doesn't seem to be any insider trading - Betfair has Kasich without Trump at 1.64, hasn't changed much for ages.
  • Options
    watford30 said:

    Dr Sarah Wollaston.

    Why, as a Europhile, I'm heading towards the Brexit Door

    http://www.drsarah.org.uk/sarah's-blog/why-as-a-europhile-im-heading-towards-the-brexit/1627

    No doubt Team Remain will be trashing her reputation in the morning.
    Three comments on her blog so far. One constructive, two "how very dare you"....
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,372

    Pulpstar said:

    This bloody exit poll is like a cryptic crossword and fucking sudoku rolled into 1.

    Why not just spit out the result!
    It's the new fashion, specially for PB - tantric polling.
  • Options
    Speedy said:

    Exit Poll compared to FPU poll (Sanders +7): Sanders improves by 13% in under age 30. Clinton improves by 5% in 65+. #NHPrimary

    FPU poll?
    Oh.

    Sanders 51+7=58%
    So that's Hillary 42% then.
    Well, maybe. Th FPU figures where 51/44; Sanders looks to have done slightly better than that.
  • Options

    FWIW (replying to SeanT), Finland does have a nice simple 0 alcohol limit for drivers (actually I think it's 0.01 or something to allow for people who inadvertently take some item that has a tiny element of alcohol). I have no idea whether it's popular, or has resulted in very low accident rates. But I do know lots of people who simply don't drink and drive, rather than fret about units and hours since last meal and all that stuff.

    Back on topic, was that 51-48 report for Sanders confirmed? Sounds like a Clinton moral win if so.

    If I am arrested here in Japan for drink driving I will be sacked from my job. It's a pretty good incentive not to take any chances. The limit is also v.low, so there's no debate about just the one etc.

    You can also get a special taxi service that takes you and drives your car home too.
    You can do that taxi thing here, Top Gear did it one year.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Interesting and good that there doesn't seem to be any insider trading - Betfair has Kasich without Trump at 1.64, hasn't changed much for ages.

    Well Rubio is at most 5th with independents with the Fox exit poll.
  • Options

    Speedy said:

    Exit Poll compared to FPU poll (Sanders +7): Sanders improves by 13% in under age 30. Clinton improves by 5% in 65+. #NHPrimary

    FPU poll?
    Oh.

    Sanders 51+7=58%
    So that's Hillary 42% then.
    Well, maybe. Th FPU figures where 51/44; Sanders looks to have done slightly better than that.
    Using UMass (Sanders by 16)

    23/77 <30 => 16/83 (Sanders doing better)
    52/40 >65 => 58/41 (Clinton doing better)

    Since those are pretty equal =, Sanders by 16 must be approx the exit poll
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Speedy said:

    Some idiot on CNN has said that "Bloomberg although he wont win a single state will try to get delegates to throw the presidential election to the house of representatives".

    It's the Electoral College and you get electoral votes only by winning states you idiot, it's not a primary.

    Maine and Nebraska potentially split their EVs...
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Finally a CNN political contributor said that Trump looks like he's going to win tonight.
    And they said that Sanders looks like he's going to do very well tonight.

    It's like torture to try to get the info out of them.
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    edited February 2016

    Interesting and good that there doesn't seem to be any insider trading - Betfair has Kasich without Trump at 1.64, hasn't changed much for ages.

    1.55 now, but it's not very liquid
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    Speedy said:

    Finally a CNN political contributor said that Trump looks like he's going to win tonight.
    And they said that Sanders looks like he's going to do very well tonight.

    It's like torture to try to get the info out of them.

    I think you and our furry friend @TheWhiterabbit are the best commentators !
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    Speedy said:

    Some idiot on CNN has said that "Bloomberg although he wont win a single state will try to get delegates to throw the presidential election to the house of representatives".

    It's the Electoral College and you get electoral votes only by winning states you idiot, it's not a primary.

    Maine and Nebraska potentially split their EVs...
    What are the chances that a billionaire from Wall Street running as an independent will win a single EV in Nebraska or Maine?
  • Options

    NH predicts : Bernie by 20, Trump by 10 (MOE +/- 3)

    If true, that sounds like good news for the second placed candidate with probably between 18% - 20% of the vote ..... but who will it be (as if we don't know)?
  • Options
    Incidentally a put a few quid on Shadsy's vote share market for Sanders (principally <60%). Not sure about that one.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Speedy said:

    Some idiot on CNN has said that "Bloomberg although he wont win a single state will try to get delegates to throw the presidential election to the house of representatives".

    It's the Electoral College and you get electoral votes only by winning states you idiot, it's not a primary.

    Maine and Nebraska potentially split their EVs...
    What are the chances that a billionaire from Wall Street running as an independent will win a single EV in Nebraska or Maine?
    Hillary might pick up a few. I thought Bill Clinton, Madeleine Albright's comments were seriously sad today.
  • Options
    "New Hampshire primary exit polls: It looks like a ~60:40 split towards Sanders. Probably a few %closer, but *WHEW*! "
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump consolidates his national lead in a large poll

    Morning Consult 3-7 Feb
    Asked of 4,287 registered voters

    Jeb Bush (R) 6%
    Ben Carson (R) 9%
    Chris Christie (R) 3%
    Ted Cruz (R) 17%
    Carly Fiorina (R) 2%
    John Kasich (R) 2%
    Marco Rubio (R) 15%
    Donald Trump (R) 38%
    Other 1%
    Undecided 8%
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Speedy said:

    Finally a CNN political contributor said that Trump looks like he's going to win tonight.
    And they said that Sanders looks like he's going to do very well tonight.

    It's like torture to try to get the info out of them.

    I always though New Hampshire a fairly sensible sort of place, but it goes for Trump and Saunders.

    American politics is weird.
  • Options
    Reading the exit runes Bernie clearly a big win and seeing the ad spend and Hillary changing her campaign staff I'm think 20% blow out. Exits look good for Trump - I was worried about his turnout operation but the exits breakdowns show he's going to win 10% is a good result for him. Cruz looks good for 3rd with Kasich 2nd. Rubio needs to be at least 4th to carry on and that's between him and Bush. Christie wont feature but will stay in so he can be at the next debate and do over Rubio again - he really hates Rubio.
  • Options
    Speedy said:

    Some idiot on CNN has said that "Bloomberg although he wont win a single state will try to get delegates to throw the presidential election to the house of representatives".

    It's the Electoral College and you get electoral votes only by winning states you idiot, it's not a primary.

    You can win two (possibly three?) Votes without winning a state due to Maine and Nebraska's allocations.

    However, throwing the election to the House is hardly the way for an independent to win the election either!
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Speedy said:

    Some idiot on CNN has said that "Bloomberg although he wont win a single state will try to get delegates to throw the presidential election to the house of representatives".

    It's the Electoral College and you get electoral votes only by winning states you idiot, it's not a primary.

    Maine and Nebraska potentially split their EVs...
    What are the chances that a billionaire from Wall Street running as an independent will win a single EV in Nebraska or Maine?
    Dunno, but it remains a possibility.
  • Options
    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,780
    Evening all.
  • Options

    NH predicts : Bernie by 20, Trump by 10 (MOE +/- 3)

    If true, that sounds like good news for the second placed candidate with probably between 18% - 20% of the vote ..... but who will it be (as if we don't know)?
    If Trump only wins by 10, it's because he's got 26%
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005

    Reading the exit runes Bernie clearly a big win and seeing the ad spend and Hillary changing her campaign staff I'm think 20% blow out. Exits look good for Trump - I was worried about his turnout operation but the exits breakdowns show he's going to win 10% is a good result for him. Cruz looks good for 3rd with Kasich 2nd. Rubio needs to be at least 4th to carry on and that's between him and Bush. Christie wont feature but will stay in so he can be at the next debate and do over Rubio again - he really hates Rubio.

    I do hope Chris Christie stays in. He's amazing on a debate stage. And a clear lay at 65.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    "New Hampshire primary exit polls: It looks like a ~60:40 split towards Sanders. Probably a few %closer, but *WHEW*! "

    Were did you see it?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005

    NH predicts : Bernie by 20, Trump by 10 (MOE +/- 3)

    If true, that sounds like good news for the second placed candidate with probably between 18% - 20% of the vote ..... but who will it be (as if we don't know)?
    If Trump only wins by 10, it's because he's got 26%
    Someone 20, Trump 30
  • Options

    Speedy said:

    Finally a CNN political contributor said that Trump looks like he's going to win tonight.
    And they said that Sanders looks like he's going to do very well tonight.

    It's like torture to try to get the info out of them.

    I always though New Hampshire a fairly sensible sort of place, but it goes for Trump and Saunders.

    American politics is weird.
    We've already got Corbyn - and who knows who will replace Cameron.......
  • Options
    YossariansChildYossariansChild Posts: 536
    edited February 2016

    Speedy said:

    Some idiot on CNN has said that "Bloomberg although he wont win a single state will try to get delegates to throw the presidential election to the house of representatives".

    It's the Electoral College and you get electoral votes only by winning states you idiot, it's not a primary.

    You can win two (possibly three?) Votes without winning a state due to Maine and Nebraska's allocations.

    However, throwing the election to the House is hardly the way for an independent to win the election either!
    Bloomberg aint winning a single vote in either Nebraska or Maine. If it goes to the House whoever is the Republican candidate wins. GOP Representatives wont vote down a GOP Presidential candidate under any circs since they wont win a Primary re-election. This they know.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    stjohn said:

    Evening all.

    Evening StJohn - Any antepost for Cheltenham ?

    I've got Vautour and Don Poli from a year back in the Gold cup xD !
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    NH predicts : Bernie by 20, Trump by 10 (MOE +/- 3)

    If true, that sounds like good news for the second placed candidate with probably between 18% - 20% of the vote ..... but who will it be (as if we don't know)?
    If Trump only wins by 10, it's because he's got 26%
    Someone 20, Trump 30
    I don't see it. But let's go halves and say 18/28 is a possibility.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Speedy said:

    Finally a CNN political contributor said that Trump looks like he's going to win tonight.
    And they said that Sanders looks like he's going to do very well tonight.

    It's like torture to try to get the info out of them.

    I always though New Hampshire a fairly sensible sort of place, but it goes for Trump and Saunders.

    American politics is weird.
    The main thing about New Hampshire is they like their mavericks and strong personalities, more than they like specific political philosophies. That was probably the reason for, for example, John McCain's success in NH in the past, rather than his "moderate" politics.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
    RodCrosby said:


    John Kasich (R) 2%

    The latest ABT candidate isn't doing too well on those numbers.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005

    Pulpstar said:

    NH predicts : Bernie by 20, Trump by 10 (MOE +/- 3)

    If true, that sounds like good news for the second placed candidate with probably between 18% - 20% of the vote ..... but who will it be (as if we don't know)?
    If Trump only wins by 10, it's because he's got 26%
    Someone 20, Trump 30
    I don't see it. But let's go halves and say 18/28 is a possibility.
    18-28 sounds very plausible
  • Options
    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,780
    Pulpstar said:

    stjohn said:

    Evening all.

    Evening StJohn - Any antepost for Cheltenham ?

    I've got Vautour and Don Poli from a year back in the Gold cup xD !
    Hi Pulpstar.

    The only Cheltenham antepost bet I've placed is Coneygree. Now sadly injured and a non runner.

    :-(
  • Options
    Danny565 said:

    Speedy said:

    Finally a CNN political contributor said that Trump looks like he's going to win tonight.
    And they said that Sanders looks like he's going to do very well tonight.

    It's like torture to try to get the info out of them.

    I always though New Hampshire a fairly sensible sort of place, but it goes for Trump and Saunders.

    American politics is weird.
    The main thing about New Hampshire is they like their mavericks and strong personalities, more than they like specific political philosophies. That was probably the reason for, for example, John McCain's success in NH in the past, rather than his "moderate" politics.
    It's been 30 years since they picked the future candidate, for either party
This discussion has been closed.