Chuck Todd @chucktodd 3m3 minutes ago Between the age gap in the Dem exit poll and the issue matrix of important issues, this exit poll electorate looks like a Sanders electorate
I've got Vautour and Don Poli from a year back in the Gold cup xD !
Hi Pulpstar.
The only Cheltenham antepost bet I've placed is Coneygree. Now sadly injured and a non runner.
:-(
Ouch. I had an entire £1 on him last year in the GC but his run was so amazing I didn't care that I'd backed for such a tiny amount. It was a great race.
NH predicts : Bernie by 20, Trump by 10 (MOE +/- 3)
If true, that sounds like good news for the second placed candidate with probably between 18% - 20% of the vote ..... but who will it be (as if we don't know)?
If Trump only wins by 10, it's because he's got 26%
Reading the exit runes Bernie clearly a big win and seeing the ad spend and Hillary changing her campaign staff I'm think 20% blow out. Exits look good for Trump - I was worried about his turnout operation but the exits breakdowns show he's going to win 10% is a good result for him. Cruz looks good for 3rd with Kasich 2nd. Rubio needs to be at least 4th to carry on and that's between him and Bush. Christie wont feature but will stay in so he can be at the next debate and do over Rubio again - he really hates Rubio.
I do hope Chris Christie stays in. He's amazing on a debate stage. And a clear lay at 65.
Chuck Todd @chucktodd 3m3 minutes ago Between the age gap in the Dem exit poll and the issue matrix of important issues, this exit poll electorate looks like a Sanders electorate
Increasingly vacuous comments. Clinton was 33/1 to win... it's Sanders' margin of victory that's important now
NH predicts : Bernie by 20, Trump by 10 (MOE +/- 3)
If true, that sounds like good news for the second placed candidate with probably between 18% - 20% of the vote ..... but who will it be (as if we don't know)?
If Trump only wins by 10, it's because he's got 26%
Someone 20, Trump 30
Agree though for Someone i'd put in Kasich.
Trump 30 Kasich 20 Cruz, Rubio, Bush 10s Chris 8
I don't want to speculate given I've got big fat gypsy reds on Bush and Rubio and am +1800 Kasich or so.
Kasich strikes me as a more articulate version of Andy Burnham (for droning on about Ohio see droning on about Liverpool) I think both Kasich and Christie are after a VP slot.
Trump / Kasich makes Ohio GOP. Trump / Christie makes great entertainment. Both beat Hillary.
If Kasich is 2nd, then it matters less for Trump he is sub 30 actually. It will be bloody hard for Kasich in the south.
I don't expect him to be far short of 30% if at all - that 10% lead strongly suggests something close to 30% vs 20% for the two front runners ..... run the numbers for yourself.
Only 12% of GOP primary NH voters are first timers. That doesn't sound too good for Trump. Probably still win, but I am thinking his margin will again be below his polling numbers
Chuck Todd @chucktodd 3m3 minutes ago Between the age gap in the Dem exit poll and the issue matrix of important issues, this exit poll electorate looks like a Sanders electorate
Increasingly vacuous comments. Clinton was 33/1 to win... it's Sanders' margin of victory that's important now
She was 250/1 at one point in 2008. Not that I expect a repeat.
Kasich strikes me as a more articulate version of Andy Burnham (for droning on about Ohio see droning on about Liverpool) I think both Kasich and Christie are after a VP slot.
Trump / Kasich makes Ohio GOP. Trump / Christie makes great entertainment. Both beat Hillary.
Hillary beat Trump in a Florida poll earlier this week, if she wins there almost impossible for Trump to win whoever he picks
In exit poll 25% of NH GOP voters are evangelicals (was 62 in Iowa) -- Cruz 26%, Trump 23%, Rubio 14%, Bush 10%
So we got moderates who are 24% go to Trump with 34, and evangelicals that are 25% who have Trump at 23. We are getting data.
Doesn't seem that great for The Donald, compared to expectations, IMO.
Independents who are 40-45% give him 29%, but he gets slightly more from republicans. I think he will get in the exit poll somewhere around 29-31%, around the polling average.
This CNN breaking news on US intel saying ISIS to attack US this year and use migrants to get into Europe while stating the obvious puts it out there for the chap on the Clapham Omnibus and if it happens Trump and Leave win certain.
Isn't this all hinting at a better-than-expected night for Cruz?
Just taken a bit of 22.0 on Cruz for Prez.
Having somewhat screwed up my position earlier, I've been doing a bit of rebalancing in the last couple of weeks and I think I'm OK. My worst scenarios are Rubio Rep Nom and Sanders Prez.
There are rumors reported on the news networks of a major shake up in the Clinton campaign this week. There is apparently concern over the lack of a coherent message.
Two developments in the Clinton email investigation today.
Firstly a federal judge rejected the State Depts request to delay further Clinton email releases for a month.
Secondly the FBI informed the State Dept that it cannot release Hillary related documents requested by State because it would "interfere with an ongoing investigation".
Bernie Sanders is developing a southern strategy. He is having breakfast with Al Sharpton tomorrow.
If it does seem like ~30% for Trump, then that still suggests he could be very vulnerable in future primaries IF the anti-Trump vote consolidates behind one candidate.
That's a very big "if" though, especially after Rubio's "these strikes are WRONG" moment.
Kasich, to win the NH GOP Primary, excl the Donald, last matched at 1.3 on Betfair.
PfP. Your Kasich bet looking to be very good value - as things stand.
I had 6 figure green on bloomberg kasich and Biden all on at very long odds. I have cashed in on bloomberg but I fancy kasich and Biden have more to run. Indeed a Kasich v Biden election would suit me well. It can't be impossible .
There are rumors reported on the news networks of a major shake up in the Clinton campaign this week. There is apparently concern over the lack of a coherent message.
Two developments in the Clinton email investigation today.
Firstly a federal judge rejected the State Depts request to delay further Clinton email releases for a month.
Secondly the FBI informed the State Dept that it cannot release Hillary related documents requested by State because it would "interfere with an ongoing investigation".
Bernie Sanders is developing a southern strategy. He is having breakfast with Al Sharpton tomorrow.
IMO, not enough attention has been paid to Sanders' chances in the Rust Belt states.
I think he could have a good chance of besting Hillary in the likes of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio, since he now seems to be making big inroads into the white low-income vote.
There are rumors reported on the news networks of a major shake up in the Clinton campaign this week. There is apparently concern over the lack of a coherent message.
Two developments in the Clinton email investigation today.
Firstly a federal judge rejected the State Depts request to delay further Clinton email releases for a month.
Secondly the FBI informed the State Dept that it cannot release Hillary related documents requested by State because it would "interfere with an ongoing investigation".
Bernie Sanders is developing a southern strategy. He is having breakfast with Al Sharpton tomorrow.
IMO, not enough attention has been paid to Sanders' chances in the Rust Belt states.
I think he could have a good chance of besting Hillary in the likes of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio, since he now seems to be making big inroads into the white low-income vote.
I'm more concerned about the assault on my senses once SC and NV have had their primary and caucus, and the focus turns to the S.E.C. Primary, which puts me right in the crosshairs.
On the other hand I'm looking forward to going to several events.
Once we get to the SEC Primary with blacks and hispanics, Hillary will clean up big time. Her only threat is the Feds.
Seeing those lines at polling stations and traffic queues as folk try and vote in the snow, it's great to see democracy in action. Whatever views we disagree on seeing people exercise their franchise is a wonderful thing.
Seeing those lines at polling stations and traffic queues as folk try and vote in the snow, it's great to see democracy in action. Whatever views we disagree on seeing people exercise their franchise is a wonderful thing.
Seeing those lines at polling stations and traffic queues as folk try and vote in the snow, it's great to see democracy in action. Whatever views we disagree on seeing people exercise their franchise is a wonderful thing.
So we still don't actually have the CNN exit poll, only this mysterious one? I see Cruz has shot in from 7 to 2 on the "win without Trump" Betfair exchange - I got £20 at 7 before that happened.
So we still don't actually have the CNN exit poll, only this mysterious one? I see Cruz has shot in from 7 to 2 on the "win without Trump" Betfair exchange - I got £20 at 7 before that happened.
Seeing those lines at polling stations and traffic queues as folk try and vote in the snow, it's great to see democracy in action. Whatever views we disagree on seeing people exercise their franchise is a wonderful thing.
Would you favour primaries in the UK?
Open Primaries like in NH and like in Totnes (for Conservatives) yes very much. I think it would benefit our democracy - both in terms of participation in the democratic process and in terms of quality of candidate.
This 'heading towards a record turnout' do we know what side this is on? Presumably it's GOP rather than Dem (cant see Dem turnout being higher than 2008)? Or is it overall? Any ideas?
Comments
Between the age gap in the Dem exit poll and the issue matrix of important issues, this exit poll electorate looks like a Sanders electorate
Trump 30 Kasich 20 Cruz, Rubio, Bush 10s Chris 8
Kasich getting 2% in S.Carolina will not have much impact.
Trump / Kasich makes Ohio GOP. Trump / Christie makes great entertainment. Both beat Hillary.
@Shadsy are you here
We are getting data.
I think he will get in the exit poll somewhere around 29-31%, around the polling average.
Who's second though, and how low will Rubio go?
Just taken a bit of 22.0 on Cruz for Prez.
Having somewhat screwed up my position earlier, I've been doing a bit of rebalancing in the last couple of weeks and I think I'm OK. My worst scenarios are Rubio Rep Nom and Sanders Prez.
I think I'll go to bed and not lose any sleep!
Two developments in the Clinton email investigation today.
Firstly a federal judge rejected the State Depts request to delay further Clinton email releases for a month.
Secondly the FBI informed the State Dept that it cannot release Hillary related documents requested by State because it would "interfere with an ongoing investigation".
Bernie Sanders is developing a southern strategy. He is having breakfast with Al Sharpton tomorrow.
Rubio ?
That's a very big "if" though, especially after Rubio's "these strikes are WRONG" moment.
.
I think he could have a good chance of besting Hillary in the likes of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio, since he now seems to be making big inroads into the white low-income vote.
DDHQ bellwether results:
Clinton 36.52%
Sanders 61.98%
Trump 35.84%
Cruz 15.12%
Kasich 14.94%
Rubio 10.72%
Bush 9.62%
#DDNHbellwether #NH
twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/697208373524221952
Trump 35.84%
Cruz 15.12%
Kasich 14.94%
Rubio 10.72%
Bush 9.62%
Clinton 36.52%
Sanders 61.98%
Bernie Sanders is developing a southern strategy. He is having breakfast with Al Sharpton tomorrow.
Al's not very southern though, is he? A bit 'New York' for yer'average South Carolinan, no? Good bloke, though, and, yes, I have met him.
Backer's
odds
Backer's
stake
Your
liability
Marco Rubio 2.7 £8.00 £13.60
Surely value lol
On the other hand I'm looking forward to going to several events.
Once we get to the SEC Primary with blacks and hispanics, Hillary will clean up big time. Her only threat is the Feds.
Edit: lol on the two decimal places
I've met him too. A more odious tax evading race hustler you could not imagine.
Good for Trump, Cruz
Bad for Rubio
Poorish for Kasich
OK for Bush
Good for Bernie
Poorish but tolerable for Hillary
Last time I shared a TV link here, it was shut down 5 minutes afterwards.
http://www.openprocessing.org/sketch/306571/embed/?width=900&height=350&border=true
http://abcnews.go.com/Live
No dispute there, but there aren't many better ways of spending an hour than arguing the toss with the Rev.
edit still 2nd with 1723 votes in
http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/
1.3% in:
Trump 54
Bush 11
Rubio 10
Cruz 10
Kasich 7
Christie 6
Carson 2
Fiorina 2
http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/
Sanders 72
Hillary 28
That one
This link works for anyone who wants to watch CNN online - the best US channel for election nights for my money.
Sanders 87.5%
Clinton 12.0%
Age: 35-54
Sanders 60.7%
Clinton 37.4%
Age: 55-74
Sanders 51.5%
Clinton 46.9%
Age: 75+
Sanders 39.5%
Clinton 57.9%
I need to sleep now, up in 6 hours. Night all.