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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Trump fails to win tonight then his bid will effectively

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    isamisam Posts: 41,009
    edited February 2016
    Pong said:

    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If Bush wins New Hampshire...

    You know the drill, trampoline time for betting markets.
    I'm not big on "picking up pennies in front of the bulldozer", so I never lay outsiders. It's just a stupid way of tying up capital.
    Strange, the most successful gambling traders I know, who dominate Betfair, consider that easy money
    For all those of us of very little brain, can you tell me what "picking up pennies in front of the bulldozer" means please?
    Roberts phrase, but I am supposing it means laying big outsiders
    Someone laid my 3000/1 £1 ew on LCFC winning the league. That is picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer!
    Not if you lay that bet 6000 times and only pay out once.
    If its your thing, I make Costa about 4000/1 to be top Prem scorer and there is £11 wanting to take 99s on the exchanges....
  • Options
    Speedy said:

    CNN has eaten their exit poll, they has a timer that ended 7 minutes ago and now they changed it to "soon".

    Does that mean they simply can't believe the results of their own poll and are having to re-run all the numbers to make sure?

    If so, who/what is the surprise factor?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Blake Gober @blakegober
    CNN Exit Poll- 2/3rd of Late Deciders said debate impacted their vote greatly cnn.com/2016/02/09/pol… #FITN

    It seems that the early numbers are bad for Rubio.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    LucyJones said:

    SeanT said:

    Earlier today I read a fascinating plan for the "rewilding" of a bleak, sterile, agarian landscape. It involved thick copses, new hedgerows, strips of broadleaf woodland - perfect habitats for buzzards, weasels, hedgehogs, now able to live in harmony with farmers.

    The authors?

    The Nazi Party, planning their settlement of conquered Poland, in 1940.

    Just read "Look Who's Back", a satirical novel about modern life and the mass media told through the eyes of Hitler who has just woken up to find himself in modern Germany. Amusing in parts, if disappointing overall.
    Hitler turns out to be a big fan of the Green Party.
    There has always been a green Romantic streak in the German concept of the Fatherland.
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    Robert Smithson: you cock.

    Very succinctly put Casino.
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    SeanT said:

    Earlier today I read a fascinating plan for the "rewilding" of a bleak, sterile, agarian landscape. It involved thick copses, new hedgerows, strips of broadleaf woodland - perfect habitats for buzzards, weasels, hedgehogs, now able to live in harmony with farmers.

    The authors?

    The Nazi Party, planning their settlement of conquered Poland, in 1940.

    They had quite forthright views on urban planning too.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,051
    Why isn't Christie not doing better? I switched a lot of my GOP his way earlier on from Rubio,. but still am very healthy on Donald.
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:
    The most shocking part for me was that Cruz is only a few months older than Rubio.
    One of my POTUS bets looks ill after reading this. Time to lay, especially if he burns out tonight.
    I sold almost all my Rubio within 15 minutes of the debate starting in Saturday night
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074

    Robert Smithson: you cock.

    Very succinctly put Casino.
    Sadly Peter from Putney has also been banned.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Chris_A said:

    SeanT said:

    Earlier today I read a fascinating plan for the "rewilding" of a bleak, sterile, agarian landscape. It involved thick copses, new hedgerows, strips of broadleaf woodland - perfect habitats for buzzards, weasels, hedgehogs, now able to live in harmony with farmers.

    The authors?

    The Nazi Party, planning their settlement of conquered Poland, in 1940.

    They had quite forthright views on urban planning too.
    Particularly in the east end of London....
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Earlier today I read a fascinating plan for the "rewilding" of a bleak, sterile, agarian landscape. It involved thick copses, new hedgerows, strips of broadleaf woodland - perfect habitats for buzzards, weasels, hedgehogs, now able to live in harmony with farmers.

    The authors?

    The Nazi Party, planning their settlement of conquered Poland, in 1940.

    And your point?
    That they combined the most benign Green Party policies (of which I thoroughly approve, as it happens) with a calm desire for brutal genocide.

    The political mind is much more complex than some basic left-right spectrum. We easily forget this.

    Shit Sean, you're developing nuance.
    I do wonder if there were Germans who, like the wiser pb-ers, sat there thinking: hmm, Hitler, I like his stuff with buzzards, but the total-death-of-Jews thing is a bit meh. Or, conversely, they were all for gassing gypsies, but felt he went too far with weasel-friendly farming?
    A contemporary letter to the edior of a German paper said something along the lines of "Dear sir, its pretty much common knowledge that we are systematically killing all the physically and metally disabled German citizens. Why aren't we doing that to the Jews?"
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Only if people have taken the media pundits' lead. They may have done, but for the most part this season voters have not.

    Hoping for a very good Kasich performance myself.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,009
    SeanT said:

    LucyJones said:

    SeanT said:

    Earlier today I read a fascinating plan for the "rewilding" of a bleak, sterile, agarian landscape. It involved thick copses, new hedgerows, strips of broadleaf woodland - perfect habitats for buzzards, weasels, hedgehogs, now able to live in harmony with farmers.

    The authors?

    The Nazi Party, planning their settlement of conquered Poland, in 1940.

    Just read "Look Who's Back", a satirical novel about modern life and the mass media told through the eyes of Hitler who has just woken up to find himself in modern Germany. Amusing in parts, if disappointing overall.
    Hitler turns out to be a big fan of the Green Party.
    It is striking just how INCREDIBLY Green the Nazis were. Take away the race-war and autobahns and they were Caroline Lucas.

    They had plans for liveable garden cities in Poland. Read their internal documents and they sound like Prince Charles talking about Poundbury.

    I wonder how many modern Greens have a dark Nazi streak somewhere. No shame in that. Most of us do.
    People say Hitler was an environmentally friendly vegetarian just to make him look bad?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Blake Gober @blakegober
    CNN Exit Poll- 2/3rd of Late Deciders said debate impacted their vote greatly cnn.com/2016/02/09/pol… #FITN

    Lay Rubio, awooga awooga.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    It looks like 5% of independents have switched from democrat to republican, if that is true then bump Kasich up 5, subtract 5 from Sanders.

    NBC Politics @NBCPolitics
    Exit Poll: Independents Split Between GOP, Democratic Primaries nbcnews.to/20Jm8Aq

    @ABCPolitics Nearly half of GOP primary voters in exit poll results say they only decided in last few days #NHPrimary

    Democratic primary voters that identify as Independents are down by 5% from 2008. #NHPrimary

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    MTimT said:

    Only if people have taken the media pundits' lead. They may have done, but for the most part this season voters have not.

    Hoping for a very good Kasich performance myself.
    Aren't we all :)
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    Sarah Wollaston declares for Leave

    PM’s threadbare EU deal means we are better off Out

    The rhetoric is being ramped up by those who want to stay in

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4686865.ece

    She's a good catch for Leave. Independent-minded, articulate and not obviously mad.
    Great news.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited February 2016
    Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
    Wednesday's Daily Mail front page:
    Britain's trade to EU slumps#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #euref pic.twitter.com/VNEyaJL7hP

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/697182634833788928/photo/1
  • Options
    Decision Desk has "decided to hold our topline results until 7pm Eastern time due to some uncertainly regarding New Hampshire's election laws and exit polling."
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    Pong said:

    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If Bush wins New Hampshire...

    You know the drill, trampoline time for betting markets.
    I'm not big on "picking up pennies in front of the bulldozer", so I never lay outsiders. It's just a stupid way of tying up capital.
    Strange, the most successful gambling traders I know, who dominate Betfair, consider that easy money
    For all those of us of very little brain, can you tell me what "picking up pennies in front of the bulldozer" means please?
    Roberts phrase, but I am supposing it means laying big outsiders
    Someone laid my 3000/1 £1 ew on LCFC winning the league. That is picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer!
    Not if you lay that bet 6000 times and only pay out once.
    If its your thing, I make Costa about 4000/1 to be top Prem scorer and there is £11 wanting to take 99s on the exchanges....
    I am watching TGS fairly closely. There are a few contenders, though Jamie looks in fine fettle. Any of Lukaku, Kane or Aguero could pinch it from him.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Alistair said:

    Blake Gober @blakegober
    CNN Exit Poll- 2/3rd of Late Deciders said debate impacted their vote greatly cnn.com/2016/02/09/pol… #FITN

    Lay Rubio, awooga awooga.
    Seeing as I'm -300 on him I'd liek to see some numbers on what to do next.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    tyson said:

    Why isn't Christie not doing better? I switched a lot of my GOP his way earlier on from Rubio,. but still am very healthy on Donald.

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:
    The most shocking part for me was that Cruz is only a few months older than Rubio.
    One of my POTUS bets looks ill after reading this. Time to lay, especially if he burns out tonight.
    I sold almost all my Rubio within 15 minutes of the debate starting in Saturday night
    Scandals, Obama hug, New Jersey cratering economically.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Decision Desk has "decided to hold our topline results until 7pm Eastern time due to some uncertainly regarding New Hampshire's election laws and exit polling."

    Sweet fucking Jesus H CHRIST
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    MTimT said:

    Only if people have taken the media pundits' lead. They may have done, but for the most part this season voters have not.

    Hoping for a very good Kasich performance myself.
    Aren't we all :)
    No.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,009

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If Bush wins New Hampshire...

    You know the drill, trampoline time for betting markets.
    I'm not big on "picking up pennies in front of the bulldozer", so I never lay outsiders. It's just a stupid way of tying up capital.
    Strange, the most successful gambling traders I know, who dominate Betfair, consider that easy money
    For all those of us of very little brain, can you tell me what "picking up pennies in front of the bulldozer" means please?
    Roberts phrase, but I am supposing it means laying big outsiders
    Someone laid my 3000/1 £1 ew on LCFC winning the league. That is picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer!
    Not if you lay that bet 6000 times and only pay out once.
    If its your thing, I make Costa about 4000/1 to be top Prem scorer and there is £11 wanting to take 99s on the exchanges....
    I am watching TGS fairly closely. There are a few contenders, though Jamie looks in fine fettle. Any of Lukaku, Kane or Aguero could pinch it from him.
    Yeah Im so glad I emailed you Vardy was a good bet at 33/1 and you said cheers and didn't get me any!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Drink driving limit to be cut.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074

    Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
    Wednesday's Daily Mail front page:
    Britain's trade to EU slumps#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #euref pic.twitter.com/VNEyaJL7hP

    Is this taking a single month's data and making a new story? Will they run it on the front page if it goes the other way in February?
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited February 2016

    Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
    Wednesday's Daily Mail front page:
    Britain's trade to EU slumps#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #euref pic.twitter.com/VNEyaJL7hP

    Fantastic news. The Mail are really getting behind Leave.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Actually yes. 63% of GOP voters said the last debate factored into their vote choice...
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    isamisam Posts: 41,009
    Pulpstar said:

    Drink driving limit to be cut.

    Should be zero IMO
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SeanT said:

    LucyJones said:

    SeanT said:

    Earlier today I read a fascinating plan for the "rewilding" of a bleak, sterile, agarian landscape. It involved thick copses, new hedgerows, strips of broadleaf woodland - perfect habitats for buzzards, weasels, hedgehogs, now able to live in harmony with farmers.

    The authors?

    The Nazi Party, planning their settlement of conquered Poland, in 1940.

    Just read "Look Who's Back", a satirical novel about modern life and the mass media told through the eyes of Hitler who has just woken up to find himself in modern Germany. Amusing in parts, if disappointing overall.
    Hitler turns out to be a big fan of the Green Party.
    It is striking just how INCREDIBLY Green the Nazis were. Take away the race-war and autobahns and they were Caroline Lucas.

    They had plans for liveable garden cities in Poland. Read their internal documents and they sound like Prince Charles talking about Poundbury.

    I wonder how many modern Greens have a dark Nazi streak somewhere. No shame in that. Most of us do.
    You should read up on the Soil Association.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Alistair said:

    Blake Gober @blakegober
    CNN Exit Poll- 2/3rd of Late Deciders said debate impacted their vote greatly cnn.com/2016/02/09/pol… #FITN

    Lay Rubio, awooga awooga.
    Or back Kris Akabusi, by the sounds of it...
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    This is leaking through the internet right now:

    "Decision Desk HQ Voter Survey

    We’ve decided to hold our topline results until 7pm Eastern time due to some uncertainly regarding New Hampshire’s election laws and exit polling. Here are some teasers until then:

    Democrats:

    Hillary Clinton is performing strongest with voters over 75 years old.

    Bernie Sanders is seeing Kim Jong-un level support among millennials.

    Republicans:

    Marco Rubio and Chris Christie are doing about the same with Independents, but Rubio is doing about twice as well with Republicans.

    Kasich is doing twice as well with Independents as Republicans.

    Trump is performing slightly better with Republicans than Independents.

    A majority of Jeb Bush’s voters are female thus far. "

    Get your calculators.
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    Terrible sporting day if you're a Liverpool supporting England cricket fan.
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    "Public Anger grows over doctors strike" ....some new polling?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited February 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Blake Gober @blakegober
    CNN Exit Poll- 2/3rd of Late Deciders said debate impacted their vote greatly cnn.com/2016/02/09/pol… #FITN

    Lay Rubio, awooga awooga.
    Seeing as I'm -300 on him I'd liek to see some numbers on what to do next.
    After only betting pennies previously I note find myself -£63 on Rubio. +£30 on the field and plus 60 on trump and Cruz. Oh and plus 120 on Kasich
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    Blake Gober @blakegober
    CNN Exit Poll- 2/3rd of Late Deciders said debate impacted their vote greatly cnn.com/2016/02/09/pol… #FITN

    So... if 1/2 decided in the last few days, and 2/3rd of late deciders say debate impacted their vote greatly, then Rubio isn't exactly going to be knocking it out the park.

    Is he?
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    MP_SE said:

    Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
    Wednesday's Daily Mail front page:
    Britain's trade to EU slumps#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #euref pic.twitter.com/VNEyaJL7hP

    Fantastic news. The Mail are really getting behind Leave.
    The Mail are totally going for it.

    I don't know what the Murdoch press will do.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Drink driving limit to be cut.

    Should be zero IMO
    Using mouthwash would put you over the limit.
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    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Drink driving limit to be cut.

    Should be zero IMO
    Nonsense. Would destroy rural pubs.

    I live in the country. A pint is fine, especially with a meal.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Speedy said:

    This is leaking through the internet right now:

    "Decision Desk HQ Voter Survey

    We’ve decided to hold our topline results until 7pm Eastern time due to some uncertainly regarding New Hampshire’s election laws and exit polling. Here are some teasers until then:

    Democrats:

    Hillary Clinton is performing strongest with voters over 75 years old.

    Bernie Sanders is seeing Kim Jong-un level support among millennials.

    Republicans:

    Marco Rubio and Chris Christie are doing about the same with Independents, but Rubio is doing about twice as well with Republicans.

    Kasich is doing twice as well with Independents as Republicans.

    Trump is performing slightly better with Republicans than Independents.

    A majority of Jeb Bush’s voters are female thus far. "

    Bernie WILL get the youth vote out I think.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Pistonheads...

    But downward trend on accidents, and casualties. Both substantially lower then 1979.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/ras51-reported-drinking-and-driving
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    Speedy said:

    This is leaking through the internet right now:

    "Decision Desk HQ Voter Survey

    We’ve decided to hold our topline results until 7pm Eastern time due to some uncertainly regarding New Hampshire’s election laws and exit polling. Here are some teasers until then:

    Democrats:

    Hillary Clinton is performing strongest with voters over 75 years old.

    Bernie Sanders is seeing Kim Jong-un level support among millennials.

    Republicans:

    Marco Rubio and Chris Christie are doing about the same with Independents, but Rubio is doing about twice as well with Republicans.

    Kasich is doing twice as well with Independents as Republicans.

    Trump is performing slightly better with Republicans than Independents.

    A majority of Jeb Bush’s voters are female thus far. "

    Get your calculators.

    Shit, only three people have voted for Jeb Bush
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    Robert Smithson: you cock.

    Very succinctly put Casino.
    Sadly Peter from Putney has also been banned.
    You vill alzo go on ze list.
  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited February 2016

    MP_SE said:

    Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
    Wednesday's Daily Mail front page:
    Britain's trade to EU slumps#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #euref pic.twitter.com/VNEyaJL7hP

    Fantastic news. The Mail are really getting behind Leave.
    The Mail are totally going for it.

    I don't know what the Murdoch press will do.
    Surely there was never any question, especially considering their headlines over the past two weeks?

    Edit : Hmm, I see that ban didn't last long ..... typical power-crazed son of the boss.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Drink driving limit to be cut.

    Should be zero IMO
    Nonsense. Would destroy rural pubs.

    ...snip...
    That's probably the idea.

  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    This is leaking through the internet right now:

    "Decision Desk HQ Voter Survey

    We’ve decided to hold our topline results until 7pm Eastern time due to some uncertainly regarding New Hampshire’s election laws and exit polling. Here are some teasers until then:

    Democrats:

    Hillary Clinton is performing strongest with voters over 75 years old.

    Bernie Sanders is seeing Kim Jong-un level support among millennials.

    Republicans:

    Marco Rubio and Chris Christie are doing about the same with Independents, but Rubio is doing about twice as well with Republicans.

    Kasich is doing twice as well with Independents as Republicans.

    Trump is performing slightly better with Republicans than Independents.

    A majority of Jeb Bush’s voters are female thus far. "

    Get your calculators.

    Shit, only three people have voted for Jeb Bush
    There was an African American crossbreak in NH which involved the figures "16.67%" and "66%"
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Blake Gober @blakegober
    CNN Exit Poll- 2/3rd of Late Deciders said debate impacted their vote greatly cnn.com/2016/02/09/pol… #FITN

    Lay Rubio, awooga awooga.
    Seeing as I'm -300 on him I'd liek to see some numbers on what to do next.
    After only betting pennies previously I note find myself -£63 on Rubio. +£30 on the field and plus 60 on trump and Cruz. Oh and plus 120 on Kasich
    That's increased from the sub £10 you had before. You'll wake up one morning and find some big numbers in Betfair.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    edited February 2016
    A really nice, ever changing result with Bush and Kasich alternating 1st and 2nd, with a late surge from Cruz, combined with Hilary winning, would do nicely.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,998
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Earlier today I read a fascinating plan for the "rewilding" of a bleak, sterile, agarian landscape. It involved thick copses, new hedgerows, strips of broadleaf woodland - perfect habitats for buzzards, weasels, hedgehogs, now able to live in harmony with farmers.

    The authors?

    The Nazi Party, planning their settlement of conquered Poland, in 1940.

    And your point?
    That they combined the most benign Green Party policies (of which I thoroughly approve, as it happens) with a calm desire for brutal genocide.

    The political mind is much more complex than some basic left-right spectrum. We easily forget this.

    Shit Sean, you're developing nuance.
    I do wonder if there were Germans who, like the wiser pb-ers, sat there thinking: hmm, Hitler, I like his stuff with buzzards, but the total-death-of-Jews thing is a bit meh. Or, conversely, they were all for gassing gypsies, but felt he went too far with weasel-friendly farming?
    Gassing Jews was a bit OTT. But, Hitler's views on animals and the environment were ahead of their time.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,031
    MP_SE said:

    ...The Mail are really getting behind Leave...

    I read the Daily Mail most days (we get the papers at work). It's bean solid LEAVE for years.

  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    This is leaking through the internet right now:

    "Decision Desk HQ Voter Survey

    We’ve decided to hold our topline results until 7pm Eastern time due to some uncertainly regarding New Hampshire’s election laws and exit polling. Here are some teasers until then:

    Democrats:

    Hillary Clinton is performing strongest with voters over 75 years old.

    Bernie Sanders is seeing Kim Jong-un level support among millennials.

    Republicans:

    Marco Rubio and Chris Christie are doing about the same with Independents, but Rubio is doing about twice as well with Republicans.

    Kasich is doing twice as well with Independents as Republicans.

    Trump is performing slightly better with Republicans than Independents.

    A majority of Jeb Bush’s voters are female thus far. "

    Bernie WILL get the youth vote out I think.
    With a quick calculation according to that exit poll Rubio could have a 3-5 point lead over Christie.

    No clue about Kasich or Trump.
  • Options
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Drink driving limit to be cut.

    Should be zero IMO
    Besides mouthwash you could have trace amounts driving the morning after the night before - and some people's bodies are known to produce trace amounts of alcohol without drinking. It needs to be non-zero because of all these issues but not far above zero is fine.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    This is leaking through the internet right now:

    "Decision Desk HQ Voter Survey

    We’ve decided to hold our topline results until 7pm Eastern time due to some uncertainly regarding New Hampshire’s election laws and exit polling. Here are some teasers until then:

    Democrats:

    Hillary Clinton is performing strongest with voters over 75 years old.

    Bernie Sanders is seeing Kim Jong-un level support among millennials.

    Republicans:

    Marco Rubio and Chris Christie are doing about the same with Independents, but Rubio is doing about twice as well with Republicans.

    Kasich is doing twice as well with Independents as Republicans.

    Trump is performing slightly better with Republicans than Independents.

    A majority of Jeb Bush’s voters are female thus far. "

    Get your calculators.

    Shit, only three people have voted for Jeb Bush
    Rubio twice as well as Christie amongst Republicans.

    Isn't that a twice of f-all is still f-all argument?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    This is leaking through the internet right now:

    "Decision Desk HQ Voter Survey

    We’ve decided to hold our topline results until 7pm Eastern time due to some uncertainly regarding New Hampshire’s election laws and exit polling. Here are some teasers until then:

    Democrats:

    Hillary Clinton is performing strongest with voters over 75 years old.

    Bernie Sanders is seeing Kim Jong-un level support among millennials.

    Republicans:

    Marco Rubio and Chris Christie are doing about the same with Independents, but Rubio is doing about twice as well with Republicans.

    Kasich is doing twice as well with Independents as Republicans.

    Trump is performing slightly better with Republicans than Independents.

    A majority of Jeb Bush’s voters are female thus far. "

    Get your calculators.

    Shit, only three people have voted for Jeb Bush
    I'm calling it for Bernie.
  • Options
    Alistair said:

    SeanT said:

    LucyJones said:

    SeanT said:

    Earlier today I read a fascinating plan for the "rewilding" of a bleak, sterile, agarian landscape. It involved thick copses, new hedgerows, strips of broadleaf woodland - perfect habitats for buzzards, weasels, hedgehogs, now able to live in harmony with farmers.

    The authors?

    The Nazi Party, planning their settlement of conquered Poland, in 1940.

    Just read "Look Who's Back", a satirical novel about modern life and the mass media told through the eyes of Hitler who has just woken up to find himself in modern Germany. Amusing in parts, if disappointing overall.
    Hitler turns out to be a big fan of the Green Party.
    It is striking just how INCREDIBLY Green the Nazis were. Take away the race-war and autobahns and they were Caroline Lucas.

    They had plans for liveable garden cities in Poland. Read their internal documents and they sound like Prince Charles talking about Poundbury.

    I wonder how many modern Greens have a dark Nazi streak somewhere. No shame in that. Most of us do.
    You should read up on the Soil Association.
    Or the early Fabians or Bloomsbury set for that matter.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    This is leaking through the internet right now:

    "Decision Desk HQ Voter Survey

    We’ve decided to hold our topline results until 7pm Eastern time due to some uncertainly regarding New Hampshire’s election laws and exit polling. Here are some teasers until then:

    Democrats:

    Hillary Clinton is performing strongest with voters over 75 years old.

    Bernie Sanders is seeing Kim Jong-un level support among millennials.

    Republicans:

    Marco Rubio and Chris Christie are doing about the same with Independents, but Rubio is doing about twice as well with Republicans.

    Kasich is doing twice as well with Independents as Republicans.

    Trump is performing slightly better with Republicans than Independents.

    A majority of Jeb Bush’s voters are female thus far. "

    Bernie WILL get the youth vote out I think.
    With a quick calculation according to that exit poll Rubio could have a 3-5 point lead over Christie.

    No clue about Kasich or Trump.
    Christie is on 8 max, more likely 6.

    So it doesn't indeed sound great for Rubio.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If Bush wins New Hampshire...

    You know the drill, trampoline time for betting markets.
    I'm not big on "picking up pennies in front of the bulldozer", so I never lay outsiders. It's just a stupid way of tying up capital.
    Strange, the most successful gambling traders I know, who dominate Betfair, consider that easy money
    For all those of us of very little brain, can you tell me what "picking up pennies in front of the bulldozer" means please?
    Roberts phrase, but I am supposing it means laying big outsiders
    Someone laid my 3000/1 £1 ew on LCFC winning the league. That is picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer!
    Not if you lay that bet 6000 times and only pay out once.
    If its your thing, I make Costa about 4000/1 to be top Prem scorer and there is £11 wanting to take 99s on the exchanges....
    I am watching TGS fairly closely. There are a few contenders, though Jamie looks in fine fettle. Any of Lukaku, Kane or Aguero could pinch it from him.
    Yeah Im so glad I emailed you Vardy was a good bet at 33/1 and you said cheers and didn't get me any!
    I tipped on here a number of Leicester City bets. Winner at 20/1 and Top 4 finish at 2/1 as recently as the end of December.

    Arsenal are a decent side so I don't think there is much value at 9/2 on Leicester win this weekend.
  • Options
    Stupid bloody idea.

    Just as it has in Scotland this will kill rural pubs. Alcohol sales from pubs fell 60% after the limit was reduced there.
  • Options
    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237



    "Public Anger grows over doctors strike" ....some new polling?

    Wishful thinking and an awful lot of spin from the Torygraph.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/nhs/12148360/Junior-doctors-strike-to-go-ahead-on-February-10.html

    Support for the strike has gone up. Percentage of those blaming the government has gone up
  • Options
    Someone just dumped a grand on Betfair to lay Trump at 3.45
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,149

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Drink driving limit to be cut.

    Should be zero IMO
    Besides mouthwash you could have trace amounts driving the morning after the night before
    You can have a lot more than trace amounts the morning after if you've overindulged. A lot of people should think twice before driving in that state.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Drink driving limit to be cut.

    How can you cut it by "a third"?

    Right now you can have two small glasses of wine, or one pint? No?

    So that's 2/3 of a pint, or one and a bit glasses of wine?

    Why don't they just say NO BOOZE. It would have the advantage of clarity. Also stupidity.
    One small glass of wine I think. Wine has got so strong that a 125ml measure is often sold as the 'drivers glass'.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    OllyT said:

    Christ another thread turning into a SeanT promo fiesta, the guy clearly has absolutely no shame Do PB get some sort of rake off from his book sales?

    Sean is our resident scallywag made good. He's quite unbecomingly modest compared to how I would be in his situation.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    More from the exit polls.

    27% of republicans are under 45.
    36% of democrats are under 45.

    Get your calculators.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Dr Sarah Wollaston.

    Why, as a Europhile, I'm heading towards the Brexit Door

    http://www.drsarah.org.uk/sarah's-blog/why-as-a-europhile-im-heading-towards-the-brexit/1627
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Someone just dumped a grand on Betfair to lay Trump at 3.45

    Rubio has gone on a proper drift though.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,009
    edited February 2016

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If Bush wins New Hampshire...

    You know the drill, trampoline time for betting markets.
    I'm not big on "picking up pennies in front of the bulldozer", so I never lay outsiders. It's just a stupid way of tying up capital.
    Strange, the most successful gambling traders I know, who dominate Betfair, consider that easy money
    For all those of us of very little brain, can you tell me what "picking up pennies in front of the bulldozer" means please?
    Roberts phrase, but I am supposing it means laying big outsiders
    Someone laid my 3000/1 £1 ew on LCFC winning the league. That is picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer!
    Not if you lay that bet 6000 times and only pay out once.
    If its your thing, I make Costa about 4000/1 to be top Prem scorer and there is £11 wanting to take 99s on the exchanges....
    I am watching TGS fairly closely. There are a few contenders, though Jamie looks in fine fettle. Any of Lukaku, Kane or Aguero could pinch it from him.
    Yeah Im so glad I emailed you Vardy was a good bet at 33/1 and you said cheers and didn't get me any!
    I tipped on here a number of Leicester City bets. Winner at 20/1 and Top 4 finish at 2/1 as recently as the end of December.

    Arsenal are a decent side so I don't think there is much value at 9/2 on Leicester win this weekend.
    Yes but I said "Have you got a PP acc?"

    You said "Yes"

    I said "Vardy ew at 33s is a great bet, Ill have any you don't want..."

    Still waiting!! :neutral:
  • Options
    NEW: 2/3 of New Hampshire GOP voters favor temporarily banning Muslims who are not US citizens from entry, per preliminary exit poll results
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,998
    edited February 2016

    Stupid bloody idea.

    Just as it has in Scotland this will kill rural pubs. Alcohol sales from pubs fell 60% after the limit was reduced there.
    Who cares, so long as the government can punish people?
  • Options

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Drink driving limit to be cut.

    Should be zero IMO
    Besides mouthwash you could have trace amounts driving the morning after the night before
    You can have a lot more than trace amounts the morning after if you've overindulged. A lot of people should think twice before driving in that state.
    Of course you can and then those people will be over the limit and not reporting trace blood alcohol. However you can have trace amounts even if you haven't overindulged and are perfectly safe to drive.
  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Dr Sarah Wollaston.

    Why, as a Europhile, I'm heading towards the Brexit Door

    http://www.drsarah.org.uk/sarah's-blog/why-as-a-europhile-im-heading-towards-the-brexit/1627

    No doubt Team Remain will be trashing her reputation in the morning.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Looking at the data from 1979, RTAs down, deaths down, casualties down, all substantial falls through the time series.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/ras51-reported-drinking-and-driving
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    2012 GOP exit poll:
    very conservative 21
    somewhat conservative 32
    moderate 47

    2016 GOP exit poll:
    very conservative 29
    somewhat conservative 45
    moderate 24
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    Speedy said:

    More from the exit polls.

    27% of republicans are under 45.
    36% of democrats are under 45.

    Get your calculators.

    Man, I can't believe they let such stupid people vote
  • Options

    Dr Sarah Wollaston.

    Why, as a Europhile, I'm heading towards the Brexit Door

    http://www.drsarah.org.uk/sarah's-blog/why-as-a-europhile-im-heading-towards-the-brexit/1627

    She's obviously on the left of the party, but I do admire her independent thinking and sheer chutzpah.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Someone just dumped a grand on Betfair to lay Trump at 3.45

    Which is pretty much the only depth in the market at the moment. Prices are going to fly when the exit poll is out.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Speedy said:

    2012 GOP exit poll:
    very conservative 21
    somewhat conservative 32
    moderate 47

    2016 GOP exit poll:
    very conservative 29
    somewhat conservative 45
    moderate 24

    Ted Cruz has won o_O ?!
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2016
    SeanT said:

    How many people are now actually run over and killed by people "just over" the limit?

    I'd hazard a guess it's somewhere around zero. So this new, more draconian policy will save no people.

    Britain has some of the safest roads in the world (which is good). But if people are still being mowed down by drunken murdering fools, it is because these irresponsible, uninsured bastards just don't give a fuck, and would drink three bottles of vodka, then drive, kill a kid, and drive on, so what.

    This tightening won't deter them, any more than the present laws do. I fail to see the logic.

    Or how many are killed by people "just under" the current limit (but over the proposed new limit)? Even fewer I suspect.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    NEW: 2/3 of New Hampshire GOP voters favor temporarily banning Muslims who are not US citizens from entry, per preliminary exit poll results

    But how many of them will vote for the only guy proposing that ?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    edited February 2016
    God get on with it CNN....It just want to know the bottom line numbers, not how conservative conservatives think they are.
  • Options
    Ok, so I'm more exposed on Rubio than a nudist convention at the South Pole.

    Can I safely go to bed?
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,048
    Terrible.
    What about the God-given right to drive around a public road after consuming intoxicating drugs.
    Brexit will probably save the UK from drink driving laws too.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    God get on with it CNN....It just want to know the bottom line numbers, not how conservative conservatives think they are.

    Forget CNN, look at the websites, look at twitter, look at other TV channels.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If Bush wins New Hampshire...

    You know the drill, trampoline time for betting markets.
    I'm not big on "picking up pennies in front of the bulldozer", so I never lay outsiders. It's just a stupid way of tying up capital.
    Strange, the most successful gambling traders I know, who dominate Betfair, consider that easy money
    For all those of us of very little brain, can you tell me what "picking up pennies in front of the bulldozer" means please?
    Roberts phrase, but I am supposing it means laying big outsiders
    Someone laid my 3000/1 £1 ew on LCFC winning the league. That is picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer!
    Not if you lay that bet 6000 times and only pay out once.
    If its your thing, I make Costa about 4000/1 to be top Prem scorer and there is £11 wanting to take 99s on the exchanges....
    I am watching TGS fairly closely. There are a few contenders, though Jamie looks in fine fettle. Any of Lukaku, Kane or Aguero could pinch it from him.
    Yeah Im so glad I emailed you Vardy was a good bet at 33/1 and you said cheers and didn't get me any!
    I tipped on here a number of Leicester City bets. Winner at 20/1 and Top 4 finish at 2/1 as recently as the end of December.

    Arsenal are a decent side so I don't think there is much value at 9/2 on Leicester win this weekend.
    Yes but I said "Have you got a PP acc?"

    You said "Yes"

    I said "Vardy ew at 33s is a great bet, Ill have any you don't want..."

    Still waiting!! :neutral:
    I mis-understand, have you no PP a/c?

    If so then sorry!
  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited February 2016
    SeanT said:

    How many people are now actually run over and killed by people "just over" the limit?

    I'd hazard a guess it's somewhere around zero. So this new, more draconian policy will save no people.

    Britain has some of the safest roads in the world (which is good). But if people are still being mowed down by drunken murdering fools, it is because these irresponsible, uninsured bastards just don't give a fuck, and would drink three bottles of vodka, then drive, kill a kid, and drive on, so what.

    This tightening won't deter them, any more than the present laws do. I fail to see the logic.

    Perhaps those just on the limit will have the choice of a Drink Driving awareness course to avoid a ban? Just like those for Speeding. (Lets not talk about the lucrative fees, and threats should one ever question some of the 'facts' presented during the presentations).

    Driving whilst under the influence of drugs, both illegal and prescription is probably a greater threat now. I dread driving when the tranq'd up school run mums are out and about.
  • Options

    SeanT said:

    How many people are now actually run over and killed by people "just over" the limit?

    I'd hazard a guess it's somewhere around zero. So this new, more draconian policy will save no people.

    Britain has some of the safest roads in the world (which is good). But if people are still being mowed down by drunken murdering fools, it is because these irresponsible, uninsured bastards just don't give a fuck, and would drink three bottles of vodka, then drive, kill a kid, and drive on, so what.

    This tightening won't deter them, any more than the present laws do. I fail to see the logic.

    Or how many are killed by people "just under" the current limit (but over the proposed new limit)? Even fewer I suspect.
    As much sympathy as I have, the group of people between the old limit and the new limit is not the group of people taken off the roads by lowering the limit.
  • Options

    Ok, so I'm more exposed on Rubio than a nudist convention at the South Pole.

    Can I safely go to bed?

    He turned third (!) into a victory last time...
  • Options

    NEW: 2/3 of New Hampshire GOP voters favor temporarily banning Muslims who are not US citizens from entry, per preliminary exit poll results

    If that's true, that has to be good for Trump.

    Why would they vote for anyone else?

    Could be a Trumpslide..
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    SeanT said:

    How many people are now actually run over and killed by people "just over" the limit?

    I'd hazard a guess it's somewhere around zero. So this new, more draconian policy will save no people.

    Britain has some of the safest roads in the world (which is good). But if people are still being mowed down by drunken murdering fools, it is because these irresponsible, uninsured bastards just don't give a fuck, and would drink three bottles of vodka, then drive, kill a kid, and drive on, so what.

    This tightening won't deter them, any more than the present laws do. I fail to see the logic.


    Indeed, it will just hurt normal people with draconian punishments for being slightly over the limit - banned from driving and punitive insurance later - while the real culprits won't give a F.

    Having children distracting you in the car can be just as dangerous.

    And I speak as someone who avoids alcohol entirely when I drive.

  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Stupid bloody idea.

    Just as it has in Scotland this will kill rural pubs. Alcohol sales from pubs fell 60% after the limit was reduced there.
    Apparently we're all supposed to be drowning our sorrows at home in splendid isolation. God forbid we go out and actually meet other people for a couple of pints. We're going to lose more of our local boozers, which is a great shame (though why I care, I've no idea - I don't drink anymore).
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    200 wanting to lay Cruz now.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Dr Sarah Wollaston.

    Why, as a Europhile, I'm heading towards the Brexit Door

    http://www.drsarah.org.uk/sarah's-blog/why-as-a-europhile-im-heading-towards-the-brexit/1627

    She's obviously on the left of the party, but I do admire her independent thinking and sheer chutzpah.
    She's great. I would vote for her if I was in her constituency.
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    Stupid bloody idea.

    Just as it has in Scotland this will kill rural pubs. Alcohol sales from pubs fell 60% after the limit was reduced there.
    Who cares, so long as the government can punish people?
    You know you shouldn't be touching the devil's buttermilk, child.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,009

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If Bush wins New Hampshire...

    You know the drill, trampoline time for betting markets.
    I'm not big on "picking up pennies in front of the bulldozer", so I never lay outsiders. It's just a stupid way of tying up capital.
    Strange, the most successful gambling traders I know, who dominate Betfair, consider that easy money
    For all those of us of very little brain, can you tell me what "picking up pennies in front of the bulldozer" means please?
    Roberts phrase, but I am supposing it means laying big outsiders
    Someone laid my 3000/1 £1 ew on LCFC winning the league. That is picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer!
    Not if you lay that bet 6000 times and only pay out once.
    If its your thing, I make Costa about 4000/1 to be top Prem scorer and there is £11 wanting to take 99s on the exchanges....
    I am watching TGS fairly closely. There are a few contenders, though Jamie looks in fine fettle. Any of Lukaku, Kane or Aguero could pinch it from him.
    Yeah Im so glad I emailed you Vardy was a good bet at 33/1 and you said cheers and didn't get me any!
    I tipped on here a number of Leicester City bets. Winner at 20/1 and Top 4 finish at 2/1 as recently as the end of December.

    Arsenal are a decent side so I don't think there is much value at 9/2 on Leicester win this weekend.
    Yes but I said "Have you got a PP acc?"

    You said "Yes"

    I said "Vardy ew at 33s is a great bet, Ill have any you don't want..."

    Still waiting!! :neutral:
    I mis-understand, have you no PP a/c?

    If so then sorry!
    Ha that's it! Nevermind, maybe I wasn't clear

    Still a decent bet at 5/2 IMO, as is Leicester top scoring side at 6/1
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,031
    You know the cause of the 2015 polling debacle? The fact that the poll panel participants were more politically engaged than non-respondents and so, even after weighting, they were still not representative of the voting population?

    So, we know that that method is flawed and the polling organisations are struggling to cope with this (so much, the ICM guy is tearing his hair out). We know that, right?

    So anybody rolling out a new large-scale panel polling application must be really stupid, right?

    Right?

    Ladies and gentlemen, Tim Montgomerie's latest fuckup
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,415

    SeanT said:

    How many people are now actually run over and killed by people "just over" the limit?

    I'd hazard a guess it's somewhere around zero. So this new, more draconian policy will save no people.

    Britain has some of the safest roads in the world (which is good). But if people are still being mowed down by drunken murdering fools, it is because these irresponsible, uninsured bastards just don't give a fuck, and would drink three bottles of vodka, then drive, kill a kid, and drive on, so what.

    This tightening won't deter them, any more than the present laws do. I fail to see the logic.

    Or how many are killed by people "just under" the current limit (but over the proposed new limit)? Even fewer I suspect.
    Probably as many (few) who have been killed on the Westway but that didn't stop the b*st*rds making it a 40mph speed limit with average speed cameras.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/voted-live-hampshire-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=36805930


    "Preliminary results find some support for two of Trump’s more controversial proposals. Two-thirds of New Hampshire GOP voters favor temporarily banning Muslims who are not U.S. citizens from entering the country and four in 10 say undocumented immigrants should be deported.

    In terms of candidate attributes, desire for a candidate who “shares my values” or “can bring needed change” are cited most often, followed by one who “tells it like it is.” Preference for a candidate who can win in November trails far behind.

    Among the top six candidates in New Hampshire, many more say Trump would best handle the economy and an international crisis alike, followed by John Kasich on the economy and a log jam among Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich and Chris Christie on an international crisis.

    Half of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire say they’d be satisfied with Trump as the eventual nominee, vs. about four in 10 for Rubio and Cruz alike."
  • Options
    NH EXIT POLL: Which candidate Democrats support can depend on voters' age #Decision2016 pic.twitter.com/4LABnSgAOY

    (I have no way to verify these!)
This discussion has been closed.