Ah thanks Rob C, really appreciate. The thing is, there's just so much involved, even for a simple game like say the NH primary. It's suspended for now, but not saying it will never come back. Right now though it's nice being able to follow everything without having to do games. Hope all is good with you!
I can only imagine what a mammoth task it is. I am glad you are ok. Im good thanks back in the UK now. Really appreciate your efforts and as I said happy to help (as are, im sure, many) give a shout if we can help as I, and I know others, really enjoyed the game. All the best fella!
FWIW - Jeb is 10/1 to win the GOP nomination and 20/1 to become the next POTUS.
6th in Iowa and third in NH does not the next GOP nominee make, let alone the next president, all he has done is avoid humiliation and kept enough of the brand in tact for his son, George P
"They'll be singing in the streets of Richmond, Virginia tonight"
I think we can all agree; It is a terrrrrrible night for the Tories.....
Somewhere Paddy Ashdown is saying "I'll eat my hat if Jim doesn't get 3 digits tonight"
I just don't understand why he isn't included with others.
Reminds me of my school batting scores - I was behind extras for every single match of every season.
School boy error. I was the same then I moved to Peru (back in the UK now) and so despite being shite at cricket am an International Cricketer for Peru - Oh Yes!!!
You're impressing me more than Jim Gilmore tonight.
Who is, now, I am pleased to say, back up to 9 VOTES!
"They'll be singing in the streets of Richmond, Virginia tonight"
I think we can all agree; It is a terrrrrrible night for the Tories.....
Somewhere Paddy Ashdown is saying "I'll eat my hat if Jim doesn't get 3 digits tonight"
I just don't understand why he isn't included with others.
Reminds me of my school batting scores - I was behind extras for every single match of every season.
School boy error. I was the same then I moved to Peru (back in the UK now) and so despite being shite at cricket am an International Cricketer for Peru - Oh Yes!!!
"They'll be singing in the streets of Richmond, Virginia tonight"
I think we can all agree; It is a terrrrrrible night for the Tories.....
Somewhere Paddy Ashdown is saying "I'll eat my hat if Jim doesn't get 3 digits tonight"
I just don't understand why he isn't included with others.
Reminds me of my school batting scores - I was behind extras for every single match of every season.
School boy error. I was the same then I moved to Peru (back in the UK now) and so despite being shite at cricket am an International Cricketer for Peru - Oh Yes!!!
You're impressing me more than Jim Gilmore tonight.
Who is, now, I am pleased to say, back up to 9 VOTES!
Don;t jinx it dude- the double figures dream is still alive!
"They'll be singing in the streets of Richmond, Virginia tonight"
I think we can all agree; It is a terrrrrrible night for the Tories.....
Somewhere Paddy Ashdown is saying "I'll eat my hat if Jim doesn't get 3 digits tonight"
I just don't understand why he isn't included with others.
Reminds me of my school batting scores - I was behind extras for every single match of every season.
School boy error. I was the same then I moved to Peru (back in the UK now) and so despite being shite at cricket am an International Cricketer for Peru - Oh Yes!!!
You're impressing me more than Jim Gilmore tonight.
Who is, now, I am pleased to say, back up to 9 VOTES!
Don;t jinx it dude- the double figures dream is still alive!
Kasich and Bush IMO worth little nibbles for the nomination, though Kasich probably just a trading bet (he's at 22 on Betfair, vs 4 for Rubio).
NP -hopefully your running £2 profit on Kasich of a couple of days ago has increased somewhat. I've dumped my bet on him over the past hour for a £30 profit. I really don't see him going much below 18-20 to lay. I was hoping that he might achieve 19% or 20% of the vote tonight but he's well short of that level and therefore his prospects appear severely limited.
"They'll be singing in the streets of Richmond, Virginia tonight"
I think we can all agree; It is a terrrrrrible night for the Tories.....
Somewhere Paddy Ashdown is saying "I'll eat my hat if Jim doesn't get 3 digits tonight"
I just don't understand why he isn't included with others.
Reminds me of my school batting scores - I was behind extras for every single match of every season.
School boy error. I was the same then I moved to Peru (back in the UK now) and so despite being shite at cricket am an International Cricketer for Peru - Oh Yes!!!
You're impressing me more than Jim Gilmore tonight.
Who is, now, I am pleased to say, back up to 9 VOTES!
Don;t jinx it dude- the double figures dream is still alive!
"They'll be singing in the streets of Richmond, Virginia tonight"
I think we can all agree; It is a terrrrrrible night for the Tories.....
Somewhere Paddy Ashdown is saying "I'll eat my hat if Jim doesn't get 3 digits tonight"
I just don't understand why he isn't included with others.
Reminds me of my school batting scores - I was behind extras for every single match of every season.
School boy error. I was the same then I moved to Peru (back in the UK now) and so despite being shite at cricket am an International Cricketer for Peru - Oh Yes!!!
You're impressing me more than Jim Gilmore tonight.
Who is, now, I am pleased to say, back up to 9 VOTES!
Don;t jinx it dude- the double figures dream is still alive!
I had a good titter reading this comment chain
Edit: WHY is he doing so badly??
Got to try to get up to your 10k mark somehow....
You surely can't be talking about Gilmore's total in all primaries?
Not sure I agree with the idea that Jeb! is the "big winner" of tonight. Sure, it looks like he'll beat the recent abysmal expectations, but New Hampshire is about as Jeb-friendly a state as you can get (bar PERHAPS Florida), so only coming 3rd still hardly indicates he's going to seriously challenge for the nomination.
Rubio really needs Jeb! to throw in the towel sooner rather than later though, both for the vote transfers and the $$$. Since the Establishment clearly isn't going to go for Trump or Cruz then I'd have thought one of them must survive past Super Tuesday - before the debate it was pretty clear that it would be Rubio, but now it's looking much tighter.
Rubio could win a lot of establishment goodwill by dropping out at this point. He's probably the only candidate who will get another shot at the nomination in the future so it would make sense for him.
Even if he did it would make little difference, now Cruz has won Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and Rubio is in fifth it is between those two for the GOP nomination with South Carolina likely to be a bitter battle between them, the GOP establishment has been well and truly humbled by the base!
"They'll be singing in the streets of Richmond, Virginia tonight"
I think we can all agree; It is a terrrrrrible night for the Tories.....
Somewhere Paddy Ashdown is saying "I'll eat my hat if Jim doesn't get 3 digits tonight"
I just don't understand why he isn't included with others.
Reminds me of my school batting scores - I was behind extras for every single match of every season.
School boy error. I was the same then I moved to Peru (back in the UK now) and so despite being shite at cricket am an International Cricketer for Peru - Oh Yes!!!
You're impressing me more than Jim Gilmore tonight.
Who is, now, I am pleased to say, back up to 9 VOTES!
Don;t jinx it dude- the double figures dream is still alive!
"They'll be singing in the streets of Richmond, Virginia tonight"
I think we can all agree; It is a terrrrrrible night for the Tories.....
Somewhere Paddy Ashdown is saying "I'll eat my hat if Jim doesn't get 3 digits tonight"
I just don't understand why he isn't included with others.
Reminds me of my school batting scores - I was behind extras for every single match of every season.
School boy error. I was the same then I moved to Peru (back in the UK now) and so despite being shite at cricket am an International Cricketer for Peru - Oh Yes!!!
You're impressing me more than Jim Gilmore tonight.
Who is, now, I am pleased to say, back up to 9 VOTES!
Don;t jinx it dude- the double figures dream is still alive!
I had a good titter reading this comment chain
Edit: WHY is he doing so badly??
Got to try to get up to your 10k mark somehow....
Receipts to the end of last year = $214,440
Votes in Iowa = 12
But why has he done so much worse than the other 'others'? Only 12 votes in the entire state!
Kasich and Bush IMO worth little nibbles for the nomination, though Kasich probably just a trading bet (he's at 22 on Betfair, vs 4 for Rubio).
NP -hopefully your running £2 profit on Kasich of a couple of days ago has increased somewhat. I've dumped my bet on him over the past hour for a £30 profit. I really don't see him going much below 18-20 to lay. I was hoping that he might achieve 19% or 20% of the vote tonight but he's well short of that level and therefore his prospects appear severely limited.
I put £60 on Kasich coming second, and a saver of £20 on Cruz, so I'm well green.
Wow ..... it looks like CNN's exit poll was way adrift. They had Cruz edging out Kasich for 2nd place, but currently the Ohio Governor is 6% ahead - that's rather more than can readily be explained away as MoE!
"They'll be singing in the streets of Richmond, Virginia tonight"
I think we can all agree; It is a terrrrrrible night for the Tories.....
Somewhere Paddy Ashdown is saying "I'll eat my hat if Jim doesn't get 3 digits tonight"
I just don't understand why he isn't included with others.
Reminds me of my school batting scores - I was behind extras for every single match of every season.
School boy error. I was the same then I moved to Peru (back in the UK now) and so despite being shite at cricket am an International Cricketer for Peru - Oh Yes!!!
You're impressing me more than Jim Gilmore tonight.
Who is, now, I am pleased to say, back up to 9 VOTES!
Don;t jinx it dude- the double figures dream is still alive!
I had a good titter reading this comment chain
Edit: WHY is he doing so badly??
Seriously? You think he's doing badly? I pity your false conscientiousness Just wait until Gilmentaltom takes the selectorate by storm!
Wow ..... it looks like CNN's exit poll was way adrift. They had Cruz edging out Kasich for 2nd place, but currently the Ohio Governor is 6% ahead - that's rather more than can readily be explained away as MoE!
I'm not CNN reported the figures you suggest(?) There were DDH ones though.
"They'll be singing in the streets of Richmond, Virginia tonight"
I think we can all agree; It is a terrrrrrible night for the Tories.....
Somewhere Paddy Ashdown is saying "I'll eat my hat if Jim doesn't get 3 digits tonight"
I just don't understand why he isn't included with others.
Reminds me of my school batting scores - I was behind extras for every single match of every season.
School boy error. I was the same then I moved to Peru (back in the UK now) and so despite being shite at cricket am an International Cricketer for Peru - Oh Yes!!!
You're impressing me more than Jim Gilmore tonight.
Who is, now, I am pleased to say, back up to 9 VOTES!
Don;t jinx it dude- the double figures dream is still alive!
I had a good titter reading this comment chain
Edit: WHY is he doing so badly??
Seriously? You think he's doing badly? I pity your false conscientiousness Just wait until Gilmentaltom takes the selectorate by storm!
Not sure I agree with the idea that Jeb! is the "big winner" of tonight. Sure, it looks like he'll beat the recent abysmal expectations, but New Hampshire is about as Jeb-friendly a state as you can get (bar PERHAPS Florida), so only coming 3rd still hardly indicates he's going to seriously challenge for the nomination.
Rubio really needs Jeb! to throw in the towel sooner rather than later though, both for the vote transfers and the $$$. Since the Establishment clearly isn't going to go for Trump or Cruz then I'd have thought one of them must survive past Super Tuesday - before the debate it was pretty clear that it would be Rubio, but now it's looking much tighter.
Hi Tissue Price. If Bush beats Rubio here, could Rubio be persuaded to step aside? Personally, after the last debate debacle, I don't think Rubio is able enough to win the nomination or the Presidency. He probably wouldn't agree with me of course!
Trump and Sanders are winning all N.H counties right now. Rubio still 5th behind Cruz, he's actually right in the middle between Cruz and Christie. It's a terminal hit for him, he will lose most of his support to other candidates.
He can't brag for coming 3rd in Iowa and 5th or 6th in N.H.
You doubters, you slackers, you limp wristed, guardian reading, latte quaffing, hummus knitting, quinoa smoking, working class hating, white guilt ejaculating, arse trumpets. The Gilmore SURGE is on!!! 13 votes is just the beginning!
You doubters, you slackers, you limp wristed, guardian reading, latte quaffing, hummus knitting, quinoa smoking, working class hating, white guilt ejaculating, arse trumpets. The Gilmore SURGE is on!!! 13 votes is just the beginning!
"They'll be singing in the streets of Richmond, Virginia tonight"
I think we can all agree; It is a terrrrrrible night for the Tories.....
Somewhere Paddy Ashdown is saying "I'll eat my hat if Jim doesn't get 3 digits tonight"
I just don't understand why he isn't included with others.
Reminds me of my school batting scores - I was behind extras for every single match of every season.
School boy error. I was the same then I moved to Peru (back in the UK now) and so despite being shite at cricket am an International Cricketer for Peru - Oh Yes!!!
You're impressing me more than Jim Gilmore tonight.
Who is, now, I am pleased to say, back up to 9 VOTES!
Don;t jinx it dude- the double figures dream is still alive!
I had a good titter reading this comment chain
Edit: WHY is he doing so badly??
Seriously? You think he's doing badly? I pity your false conscientiousness Just wait until Gilmentaltom takes the selectorate by storm!
ABC commentary summary: - Great night for Trump and Sanders, but Clinton doing less badly than she might have feared. - Not much about Kasich - Christie seen as the big loser, but maybe Rubio too
But generally fairly moronic, like the worst of BBC election nights - endless interviews with random individuals.
Not sure I agree with the idea that Jeb! is the "big winner" of tonight. Sure, it looks like he'll beat the recent abysmal expectations, but New Hampshire is about as Jeb-friendly a state as you can get (bar PERHAPS Florida), so only coming 3rd still hardly indicates he's going to seriously challenge for the nomination.
Rubio really needs Jeb! to throw in the towel sooner rather than later though, both for the vote transfers and the $$$. Since the Establishment clearly isn't going to go for Trump or Cruz then I'd have thought one of them must survive past Super Tuesday - before the debate it was pretty clear that it would be Rubio, but now it's looking much tighter.
Hi Tissue Price. If Bush beats Rubio here, could Rubio be persuaded to step aside? Personally, after the last debate debacle, I don't think Rubio is able enough to win the nomination or the Presidency. He probably wouldn't agree with me of course!
It is utterly irrelevant, it is the Trump v Cruz show now, no GOP nominee since 1976 has won the nomination without taking one of Iowa or New Hampshire. Bill Clinton did it in 1992 but he was second in NH and won South Carolina, Kasich has no chance of beating Trump or Cruz there!
The GOP establishment is facing complete humiliation on a scale similar to that the Labour establishment faced last year!
You doubters, you slackers, you limp wristed, guardian reading, latte quaffing, hummus knitting, quinoa smoking, working class hating, white guilt ejaculating, arse trumpets. The Gilmore SURGE is on!!! 13 votes is just the beginning!
Not sure I agree with the idea that Jeb! is the "big winner" of tonight. Sure, it looks like he'll beat the recent abysmal expectations, but New Hampshire is about as Jeb-friendly a state as you can get (bar PERHAPS Florida), so only coming 3rd still hardly indicates he's going to seriously challenge for the nomination.
Rubio really needs Jeb! to throw in the towel sooner rather than later though, both for the vote transfers and the $$$. Since the Establishment clearly isn't going to go for Trump or Cruz then I'd have thought one of them must survive past Super Tuesday - before the debate it was pretty clear that it would be Rubio, but now it's looking much tighter.
Hi Tissue Price. If Bush beats Rubio here, could Rubio be persuaded to step aside? Personally, after the last debate debacle, I don't think Rubio is able enough to win the nomination or the Presidency. He probably wouldn't agree with me of course!
Hi stjohn - I think Bush would have to beat him in SC and Nevada first. And I think Rubio would beat Hillary, provided he doesn't repeat the debate debacle. I'm expecting this race to go long and it is structurally biased towards the Estabishment candidates, so I wouldn't write either of them off. And I think Rubio would beat Hillary, provided he doesn't repeat the debate debacle. America loves someone who's been tested, beaten, and come back. And I think Rubio would beat Hillary, provided he doesn't repeat the debate debacle.
Not sure I agree with the idea that Jeb! is the "big winner" of tonight. Sure, it looks like he'll beat the recent abysmal expectations, but New Hampshire is about as Jeb-friendly a state as you can get (bar PERHAPS Florida), so only coming 3rd still hardly indicates he's going to seriously challenge for the nomination.
Rubio really needs Jeb! to throw in the towel sooner rather than later though, both for the vote transfers and the $$$. Since the Establishment clearly isn't going to go for Trump or Cruz then I'd have thought one of them must survive past Super Tuesday - before the debate it was pretty clear that it would be Rubio, but now it's looking much tighter.
Hi Tissue Price. If Bush beats Rubio here, could Rubio be persuaded to step aside? Personally, after the last debate debacle, I don't think Rubio is able enough to win the nomination or the Presidency. He probably wouldn't agree with me of course!
Hi stjohn - I think Bush would have to beat him in SC and Nevada first. And I think Rubio would beat Hillary, provided he doesn't repeat the debate debacle. I'm expecting this race to go long and it is structurally biased towards the Estabishment candidates, so I wouldn't write either of them off. And I think Rubio would beat Hillary, provided he doesn't repeat the debate debacle. America loves someone who's been tested, beaten, and come back. And I think Rubio would beat Hillary, provided he doesn't repeat the debate debacle.
So you think he'll run on his broken record all day long?
Not sure I agree with the idea that Jeb! is the "big winner" of tonight. Sure, it looks like he'll beat the recent abysmal expectations, but New Hampshire is about as Jeb-friendly a state as you can get (bar PERHAPS Florida), so only coming 3rd still hardly indicates he's going to seriously challenge for the nomination.
Rubio really needs Jeb! to throw in the towel sooner rather than later though, both for the vote transfers and the $$$. Since the Establishment clearly isn't going to go for Trump or Cruz then I'd have thought one of them must survive past Super Tuesday - before the debate it was pretty clear that it would be Rubio, but now it's looking much tighter.
Hi Tissue Price. If Bush beats Rubio here, could Rubio be persuaded to step aside? Personally, after the last debate debacle, I don't think Rubio is able enough to win the nomination or the Presidency. He probably wouldn't agree with me of course!
It is utterly irrelevant, it is the Trump v Cruz show now, no GOP nominee since 1976 has won the nomination without taking one of those 2 states. Bill Clinton did it in 1992 but he was second in NH and won South Carolina, Kasich has no chance of beating Trump or Cruz there!
The GOP establishment is facing complete humiliation on a scale similar to that the Labour establishment faced last year!
HYUFD. Well, if you are right, you can back both at effectively even money for the nomination.
Current GOP nominee Betfair odds
Trump 2.64-2.66 Rubio 4.5-4.8 Cruz 6.8-7.4 Bush 6.2-7.2
Not sure I agree with the idea that Jeb! is the "big winner" of tonight. Sure, it looks like he'll beat the recent abysmal expectations, but New Hampshire is about as Jeb-friendly a state as you can get (bar PERHAPS Florida), so only coming 3rd still hardly indicates he's going to seriously challenge for the nomination.
Rubio really needs Jeb! to throw in the towel sooner rather than later though, both for the vote transfers and the $$$. Since the Establishment clearly isn't going to go for Trump or Cruz then I'd have thought one of them must survive past Super Tuesday - before the debate it was pretty clear that it would be Rubio, but now it's looking much tighter.
Hi Tissue Price. If Bush beats Rubio here, could Rubio be persuaded to step aside? Personally, after the last debate debacle, I don't think Rubio is able enough to win the nomination or the Presidency. He probably wouldn't agree with me of course!
It is utterly irrelevant, it is the Trump v Cruz show now, no GOP nominee since 1976 has won the nomination without taking one of those 2 states. Bill Clinton did it in 1992 but he was second in NH and won South Carolina, Kasich has no chance of beating Trump or Cruz there!
The GOP establishment is facing complete humiliation on a scale similar to that the Labour establishment faced last year!
HYUFD. Well, if you are right, you can back both at effectively even money for the nomination.
Current GOP nominee Betfair odds
Trump 2.64-2.66 Rubio 4.5-4.8 Cruz 6.8-7.4 Bush 6.2-7.2
South Carolina will be the key, though I think Trump gets it
Not sure I agree with the idea that Jeb! is the "big winner" of tonight. Sure, it looks like he'll beat the recent abysmal expectations, but New Hampshire is about as Jeb-friendly a state as you can get (bar PERHAPS Florida), so only coming 3rd still hardly indicates he's going to seriously challenge for the nomination.
Rubio really needs Jeb! to throw in the towel sooner rather than later though, both for the vote transfers and the $$$. Since the Establishment clearly isn't going to go for Trump or Cruz then I'd have thought one of them must survive past Super Tuesday - before the debate it was pretty clear that it would be Rubio, but now it's looking much tighter.
Hi Tissue Price. If Bush beats Rubio here, could Rubio be persuaded to step aside? Personally, after the last debate debacle, I don't think Rubio is able enough to win the nomination or the Presidency. He probably wouldn't agree with me of course!
Hi stjohn - I think Bush would have to beat him in SC and Nevada first. And I think Rubio would beat Hillary, provided he doesn't repeat the debate debacle. I'm expecting this race to go long and it is structurally biased towards the Estabishment candidates, so I wouldn't write either of them off. And I think Rubio would beat Hillary, provided he doesn't repeat the debate debacle. America loves someone who's been tested, beaten, and come back. And I think Rubio would beat Hillary, provided he doesn't repeat the debate debacle.
That post deserves more than a PB.com audience at 1.30 am can deliver ...... I say that post deserves more than ZZZzzzz.
Not sure I agree with the idea that Jeb! is the "big winner" of tonight. Sure, it looks like he'll beat the recent abysmal expectations, but New Hampshire is about as Jeb-friendly a state as you can get (bar PERHAPS Florida), so only coming 3rd still hardly indicates he's going to seriously challenge for the nomination.
Rubio really needs Jeb! to throw in the towel sooner rather than later though, both for the vote transfers and the $$$. Since the Establishment clearly isn't going to go for Trump or Cruz then I'd have thought one of them must survive past Super Tuesday - before the debate it was pretty clear that it would be Rubio, but now it's looking much tighter.
Hi Tissue Price. If Bush beats Rubio here, could Rubio be persuaded to step aside? Personally, after the last debate debacle, I don't think Rubio is able enough to win the nomination or the Presidency. He probably wouldn't agree with me of course!
Hi stjohn - I think Bush would have to beat him in SC and Nevada first. And I think Rubio would beat Hillary, provided he doesn't repeat the debate debacle. I'm expecting this race to go long and it is structurally biased towards the Estabishment candidates, so I wouldn't write either of them off. And I think Rubio would beat Hillary, provided he doesn't repeat the debate debacle. America loves someone who's been tested, beaten, and come back. And I think Rubio would beat Hillary, provided he doesn't repeat the debate debacle.
Rubio has just come FIFTH in New Hampshire after coming third in Iowa, he has more chance of winning American Idol than becoming the next president now!
no GOP nominee since 1976 has won the nomination without taking one of Iowa or New Hampshire
Small sample size.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7cCeAfeLcs
Nope, modern primaries are held since 1972, all of them in both parties have the winner of Iowa or the winner of N.H. as the nominee, with 2 exceptions McGovern in 1972 and Clinton in 1992.
That's 15 out of 17 contests. So based on that, it's Cruz or Trump with odds of 88%.
Not sure I agree with the idea that Jeb! is the "big winner" of tonight. Sure, it looks like he'll beat the recent abysmal expectations, but New Hampshire is about as Jeb-friendly a state as you can get (bar PERHAPS Florida), so only coming 3rd still hardly indicates he's going to seriously challenge for the nomination.
Rubio really needs Jeb! to throw in the towel sooner rather than later though, both for the vote transfers and the $$$. Since the Establishment clearly isn't going to go for Trump or Cruz then I'd have thought one of them must survive past Super Tuesday - before the debate it was pretty clear that it would be Rubio, but now it's looking much tighter.
Hi Tissue Price. If Bush beats Rubio here, could Rubio be persuaded to step aside? Personally, after the last debate debacle, I don't think Rubio is able enough to win the nomination or the Presidency. He probably wouldn't agree with me of course!
Hi stjohn - I think Bush would have to beat him in SC and Nevada first. And I think Rubio would beat Hillary, provided he doesn't repeat the debate debacle. I'm expecting this race to go long and it is structurally biased towards the Estabishment candidates, so I wouldn't write either of them off. And I think Rubio would beat Hillary, provided he doesn't repeat the debate debacle. America loves someone who's been tested, beaten, and come back. And I think Rubio would beat Hillary, provided he doesn't repeat the debate debacle.
Let's dispel this myth, Tissue_Price knows exactly what he is doing!!
no GOP nominee since 1976 has won the nomination without taking one of Iowa or New Hampshire
Small sample size.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7cCeAfeLcs
Nope, modern primaries are held since 1972, all of them in both parties have the winner of Iowa or the winner of N.H. as the nominee, with 2 exceptions McGovern in 1972 and Clinton in 1992.
That's 15 out of 17 contests. So based on that, it's Cruz or Trump with odds of 88%.
no GOP nominee since 1976 has won the nomination without taking one of Iowa or New Hampshire
Small sample size.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7cCeAfeLcs
Nope, modern primaries are held since 1972, all of them in both parties have the winner of Iowa or the winner of N.H. as the nominee, with 2 exceptions McGovern in 1972 and Clinton in 1992.
That's 15 out of 17 contests. So based on that, it's Cruz or Trump with odds of 88%.
CNN saying the GOP nominee has always been 1st or 2nd in NH since - a long time ago! So combining both this stat and the Iowa/NH stat, Trump's across the line. (Assuming Cruz doesn't improve to 2nd in NH).
What the stats don't allow for of course is that we have never had a GOP election with Trump as a candidate. It's far from a statistically typical race!
no GOP nominee since 1976 has won the nomination without taking one of Iowa or New Hampshire
Small sample size.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7cCeAfeLcs
It includes every election since the Iowa caucuses began and a total of 10 elections, so hardly!
Only 6 in which the GOP nomination was contested
6 is pretty clear and given Trump was second in Iowa anyway and Kasich will be crushed in South Carolina I see no chance of the pattern changing! The GOP establishment has left New Hampshire tonight without a viable candidate and with their party heading off on a runaway train, the base have ensured that whichever of Trump or Cruz does win the establishment now is a certain loser!
If Bush really is on the way back, punters would be well advised not to under estimate the pulling power of his family's dynasty, not to mention the huge sums of money it would be able to call in.
no GOP nominee since 1976 has won the nomination without taking one of Iowa or New Hampshire
Small sample size.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7cCeAfeLcs
It includes every election since the Iowa caucuses began and a total of 10 elections, so hardly!
10 is a very small number for drawing inviolable conclusions from.
Rubbish, if Rubio had come a strong second in Iowa and NH you may have a point that the trend could be bucked, he did not and has been trounced tonight and as for Jeb Bush, the man who last summer was the favourite for the nomination, to claim 4th place is some kind of Lazarus like comeback is farcical!
no GOP nominee since 1976 has won the nomination without taking one of Iowa or New Hampshire
Small sample size.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7cCeAfeLcs
It includes every election since the Iowa caucuses began and a total of 10 elections, so hardly!
Only 6 in which the GOP nomination was contested
6 is pretty clear and given Trump was second in Iowa anyway and Kasich will be crushed in South Carolina I see no chance of the pattern changing! The GOP establishment has left New Hampshire tonight without a viable candidate and with their party heading off on a runaway train, the base have ensured that whichever of Trump or Cruz does win the establishment now is a certain loser!
6 is a small sample imo. And it is an unprecedented election for the reasons you state. Personally I don't feel confident to say it is Trump or Cruz 100%. I'm happy to say Rubiois toast though.
Comments
Who is, now, I am pleased to say, back up to 9 VOTES!
Pause.
We did say that yesterday!
Donald Trump 6,993 votes (--) 31.3%
John Kasich 3,967 votes (-3,026) 17.7%
Jeb Bush 2,810 votes (-4,183) 12.6%
Ted Cruz 2,609 votes (-4,384) 11.7%
Marco Rubio 2,341 votes (-4,652) 10.5%
Chris Christie 1,739 votes (-5,254) 7.8%
Carly Fiorina 1,060 votes (-5,933) 4.7%
Ben Carson 535 votes (-6,458) 2.4%
Other 296 votes (-6,697) 1.3%
Jim Gilmore 9 votes (-6,984) 0.0%
8.6% Precincts Reporting
22,329 Votes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peru_national_cricket_team
Edit: WHY is he doing so badly??
"Let's dispel once and for all with this fiction that Marco Rubio knows what he's doing. Marco Rubio has no idea what he's doing."
Votes in Iowa = 12
Trump 34
Kasich 16
Bush 12
Cruz 11
Rubio 10
Christie 8
Sanders 56
Hillary 42
Donald Trump 10,815 votes (--) 33.7%
John Kasich 5,158 votes (-5,657) 16.1%
Ted Cruz 3,869 votes (-6,946) 12.1%
Jeb Bush 3,827 votes (-6,988) 11.9%
Marco Rubio 3,343 votes (-7,472) 10.4%
Chris Christie 2,461 votes (-8,354) 7.7%
Carly Fiorina 1,434 votes (-9,381) 4.5%
Ben Carson 788 votes (-10,027) 2.5%
Other 363 votes (-10,452) 1.1%
Jim Gilmore 13 votes (-10,802) 0.0%
9.3% Precincts Reporting
31,962 Votes
Rubio still 5th behind Cruz, he's actually right in the middle between Cruz and Christie.
It's a terminal hit for him, he will lose most of his support to other candidates.
He can't brag for coming 3rd in Iowa and 5th or 6th in N.H.
Seriously though - thanks for the electoral excitement. It beats late night talk about the NHS!
- Great night for Trump and Sanders, but Clinton doing less badly than she might have feared.
- Not much about Kasich
- Christie seen as the big loser, but maybe Rubio too
But generally fairly moronic, like the worst of BBC election nights - endless interviews with random individuals.
Donald Trump 11,928 votes (--) 34.4%
John Kasich 5,573 votes (-6,355) 16.1%
Ted Cruz 4,182 votes (-7,746) 12.1%
Jeb Bush 4,130 votes (-7,798) 11.9%
Marco Rubio 3,616 votes (-8,312) 10.4%
Chris Christie 2,510 votes (-9,418) 7.2%
Carly Fiorina 1,537 votes (-10,391) 4.4%
Ben Carson 801 votes (-11,127) 2.3%
Other 381 votes (-11,547) 1.1%
Jim Gilmore 14 votes (-11,914) 0.0%
10.3% Precincts Reporting
32,427 Votes
Share Results
I'd say places are pretty much set now.
The GOP establishment is facing complete humiliation on a scale similar to that the Labour establishment faced last year!
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/nh/Dem
www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7cCeAfeLcs
Current GOP nominee Betfair odds
Trump 2.64-2.66
Rubio 4.5-4.8
Cruz 6.8-7.4
Bush 6.2-7.2
Bernie Sanders 21,846 votes (--) 59.2%
Hillary Clinton 14,764 votes (-7,082) 40.0%
Other 291 votes (-21,555) 0.8%
9.9% Precincts Reporting
36,901 Votes GOP 10.6 Reporting
Donald Trump 12,145 votes (--) 34.0%
John Kasich 5,754 votes (-6,391) 16.1%
Ted Cruz 4,280 votes (-7,865) 12.0%
Jeb Bush 4,193 votes (-7,952) 11.7%
Marco Rubio 3,706 votes (-8,439) 10.4%
Chris Christie 2,760 votes (-9,385) 7.7%
Carly Fiorina 1,580 votes (-10,565) 4.4%
Ben Carson 863 votes (-11,282) 2.4%
Other 399 votes (-11,746) 1.1%
Jim Gilmore 14 votes (-12,131) 0.0%
10.6% Precincts Reporting
34,908 Votes
Anyone know why there's a difference in GOP and Dem reporting?
That's 15 out of 17 contests.
So based on that, it's Cruz or Trump with odds of 88%.
Donald Trump 12,216 votes (--) 34.0%
John Kasich 5,790 votes (-6,426) 16.1%
Ted Cruz 4,320 votes (-7,896) 12.0%
Jeb Bush 4,193 votes (-8,023) 11.7%
Marco Rubio 3,734 votes (-8,482) 10.4%
Chris Christie 2,780 votes (-9,436) 7.7%
Carly Fiorina 1,591 votes (-10,625) 4.4%
Ben Carson 863 votes (-11,353) 2.4%
Other 399 votes (-11,817) 1.1%
Jim Gilmore 14 votes (-12,202) 0.0%
10.9% Precincts Reporting
36,029 Votes
Bernie Sanders 22,518 votes (--) 59.2%
Hillary Clinton 15,209 votes (-7,309) 40.0%
Other 310 votes (-22,208) 0.8%
15.2% Precincts Reporting
38,037 Votes
Trump 36
Cruz 19
Rubio 13
Bush 10
Carson 9
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html
What the stats don't allow for of course is that we have never had a GOP election with Trump as a candidate. It's far from a statistically typical race!
Donald Trump 12,329 votes (--) 33.9%
John Kasich 5,877 votes (-6,452) 16.2%
Ted Cruz 4,363 votes (-7,966) 12.0%
Jeb Bush 4,258 votes (-8,071) 11.7%
Marco Rubio 3,776 votes (-8,553) 10.4%
Chris Christie 2,808 votes (-9,521) 7.7%
Carly Fiorina 1,611 votes (-10,718) 4.4%
Ben Carson 887 votes (-11,442) 2.4%
Other 409 votes (-11,920) 1.1%
Jim Gilmore 14 votes (-12,315) 0.0%
16.9% Precincts Reporting
36,386 Votes
Share Results
With 16% in.
Sanders 58
Hillary 40
Trump 35
Kasich 16
Cruz 12
Bush 11
Rubio 10
Christie 8
Bernie Sanders 22,994 votes (--) 59.2%
Hillary Clinton 15,516 votes (-7,478) 40.0%
Other 317 votes (-22,677) 0.8%
16.9% Precincts Reporting
38,827 Votes
Bernie 20% lead steady
Donald Trump 12,529 votes (--) 33.9%
John Kasich 5,992 votes (-6,537) 16.2%
Ted Cruz 4,413 votes (-8,116) 12.0%
Jeb Bush 4,311 votes (-8,218) 11.7%
Marco Rubio 3,858 votes (-8,671) 10.5%
Chris Christie 2,857 votes (-9,672) 7.7%
Carly Fiorina 1,628 votes (-10,901) 4.4%
Ben Carson 895 votes (-11,634) 2.4%
Other 414 votes (-12,115) 1.1%
Jim Gilmore 15 votes (-12,514) 0.0%
17.9% Precincts Reporting
38,954 Votes
New thread
But a good night either way.
I mean he's only likely to finish about 1% behind Jeb. And evangelical states are alot better for Rubio.