no GOP nominee since 1976 has won the nomination without taking one of Iowa or New Hampshire
Small sample size.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7cCeAfeLcs
It includes every election since the Iowa caucuses began and a total of 10 elections, so hardly!
Only 6 in which the GOP nomination was contested
6 is pretty clear and given Trump was second in Iowa anyway and Kasich will be crushed in South Carolina I see no chance of the pattern changing! The GOP establishment has left New Hampshire tonight without a viable candidate and with their party heading off on a runaway train, the base have ensured that whichever of Trump or Cruz does win the establishment now is a certain loser!
6 is a small sample imo. And it is an unprecedented election for the reasons you state. Personally I don't feel confident to say it is Trump or Cruz 100%. I'm happy to say Rubiois toast though.
Yes but Rubio was the establishment's great white hope, with him gone Bush, Kasich and Christie will be battling for the scraps left over from Trump and Cruz's bunfight!
no GOP nominee since 1976 has won the nomination without taking one of Iowa or New Hampshire
Small sample size.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7cCeAfeLcs
It includes every election since the Iowa caucuses began and a total of 10 elections, so hardly!
10 is a very small number for drawing inviolable conclusions from.
Rubbish, if Rubio had come a strong second in Iowa and NH you may have a point that the trend could be bucked, he did not and has been trounced tonight and as for Jeb Bush, the man who last summer was the favourite for the nomination, to claim 4th place is some kind of Lazarus like comeback is farcical!
I'm not claiming anything - just saying that (imo) you are wrong to be so certain. Jeb is a poor candidate really. Rubio could yet be a good one, but clearly he needs to improve.
The bottom line is that the GOP can see a winnable election (that's partly why so many of them are running) and they aren't going to want to throw it away to Trump or Cruz. They're leaving it late to get themselves in order though.
no GOP nominee since 1976 has won the nomination without taking one of Iowa or New Hampshire
Small sample size.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7cCeAfeLcs
It includes every election since the Iowa caucuses began and a total of 10 elections, so hardly!
10 is a very small number for drawing inviolable conclusions from.
Reckon Rubio is worth backing at 5.1 now ? Or Bush at 6.2 ?!
Why not dutch them? Trump is probably the value right now, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see HYUFD's Golden Rule broken in 2016.
I've backed Rubio at 5.0 for a ton - plenty of time for a "comeback narrative"
I mean he's only likely to finish about 1% behind Jeb. And evangelical states are alot better for Rubio.
I would rather take 11.5 about Next President. The trouble I've had with this throughout is being pro-Rubio but never feeling the price was big enough - I do have a green book but really I've only been dabbling.
Comments
The bottom line is that the GOP can see a winnable election (that's partly why so many of them are running) and they aren't going to want to throw it away to Trump or Cruz. They're leaving it late to get themselves in order though.