Prediction: Lab: 8,912 (41.9%) / UKIP 7,780 (36.6%) / Con 3,381 (15.9%) / LD 801 (3.8%) / Greens 373 (1.8%). Make that a 14.5% swing. 1/2
If that turns out to be near then its seriously a bad result for Labour.
By comparison some local election data for Oldham West – this is perhaps a more relevant comparison than the general election because of the low turnout:
2008 – when Conservatives led Labour 20% nationally:
@DMcCaffreySKY: FROM OLDHAM: Senior UKIP sources tell me party had strong showing today, probably beating Labour but postal ballots may count against them.
"It was going to happen regardless" to quote an official at the Heywood and Middleton by-election.
The senior UKIP sources better be right otherwise they are not close to managing expectations properly.
I don't think any prominent UKIP figure has predicted a gain here.
Jeremy Corbyn has made his MPs targets for home-grown jihadists in the wake of the vote to back Syrian air strikes, a shadow cabinet minister has warned.
The accusation that MPs are being left open to revenge attacks came as a backbencher made a formal complaint to Labour’s chief whip over Mr Corbyn’s “despicable and deliberate” threats over the Syria vote which he said will lead to “personal violence” against MPs.
re Low Turnout. I could be wrong but wasn't Mr Corbyn's USP meant to be re-invigorating politics and bringing back to voting and to Labour all those who hadn't turned out?
Jeremy Corbyn has made his MPs targets for home-grown jihadists in the wake of the vote to back Syrian air strikes, a shadow cabinet minister has warned.
The accusation that MPs are being left open to revenge attacks came as a backbencher made a formal complaint to Labour’s chief whip over Mr Corbyn’s “despicable and deliberate” threats over the Syria vote which he said will lead to “personal violence” against MPs.
I always remember the Dunfermline by-election where everyone thought Labour was going to win, even as the candidates walked onto the stage for the result.
I won a packet on that. Too much speculation and assumption, based on little information. The odds for labour winning it looked like value, and bungee money on at about 11ish.
re Low Turnout. I could be wrong but wasn't Mr Corbyn's USP meant to be re-invigorating politics and bringing back to voting and to Labour all those who hadn't turned out?
True enough. Though the result will probably be a comfortable labour hold (disappointing for Lab, but hardly calamitous), low turnout would refute that sort of claim at least partly.
@faisalislam: Labour confident that it has won in Oldham: but have had a wobble over low postal vote turnout, low turnout generally
Not really sure how the first assertion can be true if the second and third are...
Easy enough - the low postal vote and low turnout generally gives them cause for concern, but they started from such a strong position that their canvassing has them confident it will see them over the line.
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics 56s56 seconds ago Betting markets seem convinced Labour has won #OldhamWest . Just taken a £1,000 bet at 1/12.
If the 2015 General Election taught us anything, it's that betting markets are not a good indicator of political results
that's betting markets who'd been fed dreadfully inaccurate polls.
this time we have no polls so must be nailed on 100% accurate.
Last time we had inaccurate polls as input. This time we have no input at all... ...except for Corbyn's ginormous disapproval, it's pissing rain, Labour canvassers tweeted doorstep disapproval, the postal votes are too low, the turnout is too low... ...so other than goss, what actual data have we got to say that Labour are winning?
Thanks to Harry once more who is to local government elections what Wisden is to cricket.A couple of one-party states tonight,one Con and one Lab,where it would be interesting to see what an equivalent vote on an STV basis would bring as I'm sure the electorate is best served by competitive,multi-party politics.
For the record I did not predict a UKIP win tonight. I sait it would be Labour by tens or UKIP by hundreds. Good hedging, I thought. I'm hoping for a UKIP win, but I fear they won't do it. You never know, though.
I'm looking at photos from the count, the Labour pile is about twice the UKIP pile so far:
Arif Ansari @ArifBBC 6m6 minutes ago View from the balcony in Oldham as the by-election count gets underway. An update on @BBCNWT at 2230
Sounds representative. Not.
Most of the early votes to be counted will be (a) postal votes and (b) from the central part of Oldham, both of which will be much better than average for Labour.
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics 56s56 seconds ago Betting markets seem convinced Labour has won #OldhamWest . Just taken a £1,000 bet at 1/12.
If the 2015 General Election taught us anything, it's that betting markets are not a good indicator of political results
that's betting markets who'd been fed dreadfully inaccurate polls.
this time we have no polls so must be nailed on 100% accurate.
Last time we had inaccurate polls as input. This time we have no input at all... ...except for Corbyn's ginormous disapproval, it's pissing rain, Labour canvassers tweeted doorstep disapproval, the postal votes are too low, the turnout is too low... ...so other than goss, what actual data have we got to say that Labour are winning?
Hardly any data one way or another (someone tweets about disapproval, someone else tweets they think they will still win). So it is all on gut instinct, notoriously wrong though it can be. But Lab losing requires a lot of factors coming together for an enormous change. Not impossible, granted, but in the absence of much evidence at all (barring the turnout I suppose, but people have been arguing how significant that will be) 'incumbent opposition party wins' is the safe option.
22.28: My Oldham moles were all a bit edgier today than they were earlier in the week. How much of that is polling day nerves remains to be seen.
It seems turnout is a little higher than expected. On Tuesday, I was told we were looking at under 30% – now it seems 35% is likelier.
Unfortunately, that seems to be down to a big turnout of the UKIP vote on the day. There are even whispers that more ‘Kippers turned out to the polling stations than Labour today. However, Labour’s strong postal ballot game should see us through. (labourlist)
My Lab MP said last week that his feeling was actually that the Labour vote was holding up reasonably well, but that the reasons for thinking it might be close were (a) Tory voters tactically going UKIP, and (b) the possibility of a low turnout meaning even those people who were saying on the doorstep that they were satisfied enough with Labour not showing on the day.
Time will tell if it was optimistic spin.
That's pretty similar to what Nick Plamer was saying just before GE2015.
Ann Clwyd (Cynon Valley) - Unable to attend Helen Goodman (Bishop Auckland) - Unable to attend Lindsay Hoyle (Chorley) - Deputy Speaker Mike Gapes (Ilford South) - Unable to attend - was in hospital at weekend Natascha Engel (North East Derbyshire) - Deputy Speaker Rosie Cooper (West Lancashire) - Unable to attend Thangam Debbonaire (Bristol West) - Unable to attend - ongoing breast cancer treatment.
Well as the count progresses, a little bit of history, the first TV appearance of a Desktop Computer to count votes on US Election Night 1968 with added amusement from the journalists ( from minute 13 onwards):
Newsnight:- John McCain wonderfully dismissive of the point of British airstrikes. "I'm not saying they'll achieve nothing - I'm sure they'll achieve a little something"
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics 56s56 seconds ago Betting markets seem convinced Labour has won #OldhamWest . Just taken a £1,000 bet at 1/12.
If the 2015 General Election taught us anything, it's that betting markets are not a good indicator of political results
that's betting markets who'd been fed dreadfully inaccurate polls.
this time we have no polls so must be nailed on 100% accurate.
Last time we had inaccurate polls as input. This time we have no input at all... ...except for Corbyn's ginormous disapproval, it's pissing rain, Labour canvassers tweeted doorstep disapproval, the postal votes are too low, the turnout is too low... ...so other than goss, what actual data have we got to say that Labour are winning?
Hardly any data one way or another (someone tweets about disapproval, someone else tweets they think they will still win). So it is all on gut instinct, notoriously wrong though it can be. But Lab losing requires a lot of factors coming together for an enormous change. Not impossible, granted, but in the absence of much evidence at all (barring the turnout I suppose, but people have been arguing how significant that will be) 'incumbent opposition party wins' is the safe option.
Fair enough. I will continue with my belief that UKIP will win and tomorrow I will look either prescient or foolish...:-)
"My Oldham moles were all a bit edgier today than they were earlier in the week. How much of that is polling day nerves remains to be seen. It seems turnout is a little higher than expected. On Tuesday, I was told we were looking at under 30% – now it seems 35% is likelier.
Unfortunately, that seems to be down to a big turnout of the UKIP vote on the day. There are even whispers that more ‘Kippers turned out to the polling stations than Labour today. However, Labour’s strong postal ballot game should see us through."
I'm often second guessing connotations and implications of things in terms of race and offensiveness, but that's an odd one. Maybe it's the phrasing - if he'd claimed the song 'could' have other connotations, I wouldn't be confused, whether he was right or wrong about the intent, but the blanket statement that it just 'has' other connotations was not something I was aware of.
"My Oldham moles were all a bit edgier today than they were earlier in the week. How much of that is polling day nerves remains to be seen.
It seems turnout is a little higher than expected. On Tuesday, I was told we were looking at under 30% – now it seems 35% is likelier.
Unfortunately, that seems to be down to a big turnout of the UKIP vote on the day. There are even whispers that more ‘Kippers turned out to the polling stations than Labour today. However, Labour’s strong postal ballot game should see us through."
Ann Clwyd (Cynon Valley) - Unable to attend Helen Goodman (Bishop Auckland) - Unable to attend Lindsay Hoyle (Chorley) - Deputy Speaker Mike Gapes (Ilford South) - Unable to attend - was in hospital at weekend Natascha Engel (North East Derbyshire) - Deputy Speaker Rosie Cooper (West Lancashire) - Unable to attend Thangam Debbonaire (Bristol West) - Unable to attend - ongoing breast cancer treatment.
War has broken out at the top of Ukip after MP Douglas Carswell voted to bomb Syria – despite the anti-intervention stance of party boss Nigel Farage.
The Ukip leader said he “disagreed” with his party’s only MP, but was “not disappointed” as Mr Carswell had notified him at the weekend that he intended to vote to expand British airstrikes against ISIS.....
....Yet a senior party source was far more scathing, telling SunNation: “Douglas has lots of principles.
“And if you don’t like these ones, he’s got plenty more…”
What the hell's wrong with playing the tune "White Christmas?" I bet there aren't any Asians in Oldham who have a problem with it, just trendy leftists in London.
Jeremy Corbyn has made his MPs targets for home-grown jihadists in the wake of the vote to back Syrian air strikes, a shadow cabinet minister has warned.
The accusation that MPs are being left open to revenge attacks came as a backbencher made a formal complaint to Labour’s chief whip over Mr Corbyn’s “despicable and deliberate” threats over the Syria vote which he said will lead to “personal violence” against MPs.
"My Oldham moles were all a bit edgier today than they were earlier in the week. How much of that is polling day nerves remains to be seen. It seems turnout is a little higher than expected. On Tuesday, I was told we were looking at under 30% – now it seems 35% is likelier.
Unfortunately, that seems to be down to a big turnout of the UKIP vote on the day. There are even whispers that more ‘Kippers turned out to the polling stations than Labour today. However, Labour’s strong postal ballot game should see us through."
I'm often second guessing connotations and implications of things in terms of race and offensiveness, but that's an odd one. Maybe it's the phrasing - if he'd claimed the song 'could' have other connotations, I wouldn't be confused, whether he was right or wrong about the intent, but the blanket statement that it just 'has' other connotations was not something I was aware of.
I despair! How many people have actually been to a count? Polling stops at 10. Then the boxes get collected and brought to the counters. This process alone can take 45 minutes or more. As boxes come in the counters will start the verification process. It is possible to try and pick up sample tallies at this stage, but you have to combine that knowledge with what you know about that particular polling district. Only once both postal votes and votes cast have been counted, and there isn't a discrepancy, if there is one, they count again, only then will they be separated into ballots by candidate.
A knowledgable activist with good local nouse can pick up how things are going between 11 and 11:30. But if it is close, you are looking until 1am or longer for a definitive result.
Though it seems to have been written out of history, Glorious Leader David Cameron almost lost his first by-election in a Tory-held seat -- he suffered a 14% swing away from him to the Lib Dems in Bromley and Chislehurst in June 2006.
I'm often second guessing connotations and implications of things in terms of race and offensiveness, but that's an odd one. Maybe it's the phrasing - if he'd claimed the song 'could' have other connotations, I wouldn't be confused, whether he was right or wrong about the intent, but the blanket statement that it just 'has' other connotations was not something I was aware of.
Though it seems to have been written out of history, Glorious Leader David Cameron almost lost his first by-election in a Tory-held seat -- he suffered a 14% swing away from him to the Lib Dems in Bromley and Chislehurst in June 2006.
"My Oldham moles were all a bit edgier today than they were earlier in the week. How much of that is polling day nerves remains to be seen. It seems turnout is a little higher than expected. On Tuesday, I was told we were looking at under 30% – now it seems 35% is likelier.
Unfortunately, that seems to be down to a big turnout of the UKIP vote on the day. There are even whispers that more ‘Kippers turned out to the polling stations than Labour today. However, Labour’s strong postal ballot game should see us through."
On the trays on the low right. Don't forget to open the picture rather that just the tweet to get a better look. Only those for Table 16 are clearly visible.
Though it seems to have been written out of history, Glorious Leader David Cameron almost lost his first by-election in a Tory-held seat -- he suffered a 14% swing away from him to the Lib Dems in Bromley and Chislehurst in June 2006.
@DMcCaffreySKY: FROM OLDHAM: Senior UKIP sources tell me party had strong showing today, probably beating Labour but postal ballots may count against them.
"It was going to happen regardless" to quote an official at the Heywood and Middleton by-election.
The senior UKIP sources better be right otherwise they are not close to managing expectations properly.
Quite agree. If UKIP do win this then is will be against all their own returns and other parties returns too. Still, nowt so queer as folk!
"The Daily Mirror is reporting that Labour’s majority could be reduced to under 1,000. A party figure I spoke to earlier seemed rather more confident than you would expect if that forecast were accurate, but the Mirror figures are broadly in line with this prediction from the elections expert Ian Warren."
Though it seems to have been written out of history, Glorious Leader David Cameron almost lost his first by-election in a Tory-held seat -- he suffered a 14% swing away from him to the Lib Dems in Bromley and Chislehurst in June 2006.
Though it seems to have been written out of history, Glorious Leader David Cameron almost lost his first by-election in a Tory-held seat -- he suffered a 14% swing away from him to the Lib Dems in Bromley and Chislehurst in June 2006.
I love it: first we hear Labour are confident they've won, then a few minutes later we hear they believe they may have lost the vote on the day itself excluding postal votes.
Blimey, the Beeb (Radio 4) just ran a piece on the World Tonight insinuating that Hilary Benn's speech yesterday was 'dangerous rhetoric', comparable to Enoch Powell's Rivers of Blood speech (playing the passage where he said "in 15 or 20 years' time the black man will have the whip hand over the white man"), one of Tony Blair's Iraq speeches, and a particularly partisan Thatcher speech. Even by Beeb standards that's going it a bit.
@faisalislam · 7 mins7 minutes ago A source close to one of the campaigns told me that postal vote turnout was just over half, ordinarily 70-80% #OldhamWest
Do air strike against IS in Syria make you feel more safe, less safe, or no difference
Less 43 More 20 No Diff 38
54/46 Support them though
The war had a 17 point lead just a few days ago with yougov, opinions are changing quickly.
Perfectly understandable IMO.
Before airstrikes = lower threat* therefore more gung-ho in support After airstrikes = threat higher, it's actually happening, therefore more cautious.
*I don't personally think airstrikes makes us any less safe. It's a matter of degree. If now 101 people want us destroyed vs 100 previously, the concept of "less safe" becomes moot.
@faisalislam · 7 mins7 minutes ago A source close to one of the campaigns told me that postal vote turnout was just over half, ordinarily 70-80% #OldhamWest
Probably also a few early senders who wanted to down and reclaim their already submitted postal votes...
"My Oldham moles were all a bit edgier today than they were earlier in the week. How much of that is polling day nerves remains to be seen. It seems turnout is a little higher than expected. On Tuesday, I was told we were looking at under 30% – now it seems 35% is likelier.
Unfortunately, that seems to be down to a big turnout of the UKIP vote on the day. There are even whispers that more ‘Kippers turned out to the polling stations than Labour today. However, Labour’s strong postal ballot game should see us through."
Though it seems to have been written out of history, Glorious Leader David Cameron almost lost his first by-election in a Tory-held seat -- he suffered a 14% swing away from him to the Lib Dems in Bromley and Chislehurst in June 2006.
Comments
Only 20 votes per address instead of 50?
By comparison some local election data for Oldham West – this is perhaps a more relevant comparison than the general election because of the low turnout:
2008 – when Conservatives led Labour 20% nationally:
Lab 11466 41%
LD 8127 29%
Con 6221 22%
Oth 1995 7%
2012 – the seats which will be up for election next May:
Lab 16422 66%
Con 3829 15%
LD 3307 13%
Oth 1431 6%
this time we have no polls so must be nailed on 100% accurate.
As a Tory I've never wanted Labour to win an election more!
Do air strike against IS in Syria make you feel more safe, less safe, or no difference
Less 43
More 20
No Diff 38
54/46 Support them though
You literally could not script it to cause any more damage even if you tried.
http://labourlist.org/2015/12/oldham-west-by-election-liveblog/
Targets for deselection yes, targets for jihadists not, because jihadists are after publicity, unknown Labour MP's are of little publicity value.
The shadow cabinet needs a reshuffle to get rid of those unnamed shadow cabinet ministers.
it keeps getting worse and worse.
I think I had Labour on 45%.
This time we have no input at all...
...except for Corbyn's ginormous disapproval, it's pissing rain, Labour canvassers tweeted doorstep disapproval, the postal votes are too low, the turnout is too low...
...so other than goss, what actual data have we got to say that Labour are winning?
Arif Ansari @ArifBBC 6m6 minutes ago
View from the balcony in Oldham as the by-election count gets underway. An update on @BBCNWT at 2230
Most of the early votes to be counted will be (a) postal votes and (b) from the central part of Oldham, both of which will be much better than average for Labour.
22.28: My Oldham moles were all a bit edgier today than they were earlier in the week. How much of that is polling day nerves remains to be seen.
It seems turnout is a little higher than expected. On Tuesday, I was told we were looking at under 30% – now it seems 35% is likelier.
Unfortunately, that seems to be down to a big turnout of the UKIP vote on the day. There are even whispers that more ‘Kippers turned out to the polling stations than Labour today. However, Labour’s strong postal ballot game should see us through. (labourlist)
Nobody from any other party was reported to be unable to attend.
Seems strange - hope nobody is seriously unwell.
See link (at bottom of page):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34987921
Please, Labour party, mix up the boilerplate victory announcement, I implore you.
Otherwise, good luck UKIP - let's hope you run them close at least, keep this interesting.
Good night.
Ian Warrens prediction seems strangely reminiscent of something. Any one know if there has been a survey of interested political punters?
Helen Goodman (Bishop Auckland) - Unable to attend
Lindsay Hoyle (Chorley) - Deputy Speaker
Mike Gapes (Ilford South) - Unable to attend - was in hospital at weekend
Natascha Engel (North East Derbyshire) - Deputy Speaker
Rosie Cooper (West Lancashire) - Unable to attend
Thangam Debbonaire (Bristol West) - Unable to attend - ongoing breast cancer treatment.
"A UKIP van blasting out ‘I’m Dreaming of a White Christmas’ was spotted in Royton.
The Bing Crosby classic was heard blaring from speakers on a van with a poster of UKIP candidate John Bickley on the side.
The song choice has caused outrage among Labour supporters after it was shared on Twitter by Audenshaw councillor Oliver Ryan.
“It’s a really cynical move. They’ll say there’s nothing wrong with playing Christmas songs, but doing something like that is playing with fire.”
He added: “White Christmas has other connotations. It’s not helpful but it’s what we have come to expect from UKIP in the last three weeks.”
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/ukip-van-playing-bing-crosbys-10546137
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KP8XUqe6AJ0
"My Oldham moles were all a bit edgier today than they were earlier in the week. How much of that is polling day nerves remains to be seen. It seems turnout is a little higher than expected. On Tuesday, I was told we were looking at under 30% – now it seems 35% is likelier.
Unfortunately, that seems to be down to a big turnout of the UKIP vote on the day. There are even whispers that more ‘Kippers turned out to the polling stations than Labour today. However, Labour’s strong postal ballot game should see us through."
http://labourlist.org/2015/12/oldham-west-by-election-liveblog/
The Ukip leader said he “disagreed” with his party’s only MP, but was “not disappointed” as Mr Carswell had notified him at the weekend that he intended to vote to expand British airstrikes against ISIS.....
....Yet a senior party source was far more scathing, telling SunNation: “Douglas has lots of principles.
“And if you don’t like these ones, he’s got plenty more…”
http://bit.ly/1lcPqoG
The shadow cabinet needs a reshuffle to get rid of those unnamed shadow cabinet ministers.
Yes of course you are right, because no Labour MP has ever been stabbed in their own office for having voted for military action.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-11682732
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/live-oldham-west-royton-election-10546128?
Only once both postal votes and votes cast have been counted, and there isn't a discrepancy, if there is one, they count again, only then will they be separated into ballots by candidate.
A knowledgable activist with good local nouse can pick up how things are going between 11 and 11:30. But if it is close, you are looking until 1am or longer for a definitive result.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bromley_and_Chislehurst_by-election,_2006
#justsaying
https://twitter.com/ArifBBC/status/672541982229663744
Belvoir is pronounced "Beaver"
Beaver, fnarr fnarr
Don't forget to open the picture rather that just the tweet to get a better look.
Only those for Table 16 are clearly visible.
Surely this is proof that the lefties at the Beeb are setting UKIP up just to be able to slam them when they don't win.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/dec/03/oldham-byelection-labour-corbyn-ukip-challenge-in-first-test-of-corbyns-popularity-live
John Loony
It'll be low, but not that low.
A source close to one of the campaigns told me that postal vote turnout was just over half, ordinarily 70-80% #OldhamWest
Before airstrikes = lower threat* therefore more gung-ho in support
After airstrikes = threat higher, it's actually happening, therefore more cautious.
*I don't personally think airstrikes makes us any less safe. It's a matter of degree. If now 101 people want us destroyed vs 100 previously, the concept of "less safe" becomes moot.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.121439788