Looks like Jezza has dodged the first bullet. A shame, but not entirely unexpected. Labour won't lose everywhere all the time under his leadership - just when and where it matters.
Colorado, Nevada and Florida between them comprise 43 Electoral College votes, fail to win at least one of those states and it is highly likely you lose the presidency. The Republicans would have to win Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, New Hampshire and Michigan to win to compensate, almost impossible, so wrong. In Florida a majority of Hispanics are non-Cuban, with Cubans making up just over a third of the Hispanics there so the GOP cannot ignore the Hispanic vote there either http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/factsheets/9.pdf
In Florida mexicans are only 7.5% of the latino vote, 2/3rds of them are puerto-ricans (Puerto Rico is a US territory) and cubans. You have to learn to distinguish the nationality of the latino vote by country of origin. So when lets say Trump insults mexican illegal immigrants we know the magnitude of it's impact. Without Florida which is a special case (as I said Latinos there are not mexicans), Colorado and Nevada together are 15 electoral votes, less that the smallest rust belt state (Michigan 16 E.Votes).
You have also proven what I was saying, that Cubans vote differently than Mexicans which is why we must break down the latino vote by state and nationality of origin.
Yes they do but as I pointed out it is now the non-Cuban Hispanic vote in Florida which plays a key role in determining which way the state goes
If Labour fake enough postal ballots to win the seat, you may wish some cheering up. The second Batman vs Superman trailer is out. Doomsday & Wonder Woman's in it.
Oh no, not another crappy superhero movie. They ran out of superheroes so now they are merging the franchises. Star Wars vs Star Trek next.
Looks like Jezza has dodged the first bullet. A shame, but not entirely unexpected. Labour won't lose everywhere all the time under his leadership - just when and where it matters.
Alex Carey @AlexCareyOC 3 mins3 minutes ago Spoken to local contacts from both parties. UKIP contact said they're not expecting a win. Labour contact says they may have 50% of vote
If Labour fake enough postal ballots to win the seat, you may wish some cheering up. The second Batman vs Superman trailer is out. Doomsday & Wonder Woman's in it.
Oh no, not another crappy superhero movie. They ran out of superheroes so now they are merging the franchises. Star Wars vs Star Trek next.
Maybe they can incorporate the Superman/Invisible Man/Wonder Woman joke.
If Labour fake enough postal ballots to win the seat, you may wish some cheering up. The second Batman vs Superman trailer is out. Doomsday & Wonder Woman's in it.
Oh no, not another crappy superhero movie. They ran out of superheroes so now they are merging the franchises. Star Wars vs Star Trek next.
If Labour fake enough postal ballots to win the seat, you may wish some cheering up. The second Batman vs Superman trailer is out. Doomsday & Wonder Woman's in it.
Oh no, not another crappy superhero movie. They ran out of superheroes so now they are merging the franchises. Star Wars vs Star Trek next.
Maybe they can incorporate the Superman/Invisible Man/Wonder Woman joke.
Well there is already a Star Trek porn movie, they might have already done it.
Labour offer a free vote, which Cameron wins. Labour squeak Oldham No member of the shadow cabinet resigns Corbyn remains in post, and those members of the PLP not deselected by Momentum get hammered by the voters
1. Al Qaeda 2. Inspired. Do i win a book or a Ladbrokes free bet?
You win a subscription to Dabiq, the IS in-house magazine. The lifestyle pieces are particularly popular. Glamping in the Caliphate was a great article.
Newham London @NewhamLondon 5m5 minutes ago A total of 1,997 votes were cast in the Boleyn Ward by-election. Veronica Oakehsott (Labour), Newham's new councillor received 1,440 votes.
@joncraig: Last-minute surge in postal votes at Oldham by-election, up from 55% to 70% in final days. UKIP sources suggest that's good news for Labour.
I think it's time Tory supporters started lying to those pesky opinion pollsters as well... Have been getting a bit concerned that the Con lead it getting too large.
@joncraig: Last-minute surge in postal votes at Oldham by-election, up from 55% to 70% in final days. UKIP sources suggest that's good news for Labour.
LOL! Hope they check these postal votes against the register...
@stephenkb: What's worth watching for: in first three by-elections (Oldham E, Barnsley Central, Leicester South) of Miliband era, Labour up 10+ points.
@joncraig: Last-minute surge in postal votes at Oldham by-election, up from 55% to 70% in final days. UKIP sources suggest that's good news for Labour.
LOL! Hope they check these postal votes against the register...
They did - there was a perfect 2:1 correspondence as expected. (TIC)
@joncraig: Last-minute surge in postal votes at Oldham by-election, up from 55% to 70% in final days. UKIP sources suggest that's good news for Labour.
LOL! Hope they check these postal votes against the register...
What register? Labour councils don't keep registers.
A Labour win in Oldham probably means a Tory win in London next May and horrible results for Labour in Scotland and Wales. Cameron and Osborne must be pleased.
If Labour fake enough postal ballots to win the seat, you may wish some cheering up. The second Batman vs Superman trailer is out. Doomsday & Wonder Woman's in it.
Oh no, not another crappy superhero movie. They ran out of superheroes so now they are merging the franchises. Star Wars vs Star Trek next.
@stephenkb: What's worth watching for: in first three by-elections (Oldham E, Barnsley Central, Leicester South) of Miliband era, Labour up 10+ points.
Are some projecting that Labour's vote might be up from the GE ? That is critical for the odds of David Herdson eating Lord Ashdowns hat.
I remember Dr Palmer was never all that fond of Diane... I wonder how he feels now about getting into bed with her (in a strictly political sense of course) ?
@stephenkb: What's worth watching for: in first three by-elections (Oldham E, Barnsley Central, Leicester South) of Miliband era, Labour up 10+ points.
But could possibly still outstrip Dave's 11-point drop in his first byelection
A Labour win in Oldham probably means a Tory win in London next May and horrible results for Labour in Scotland and Wales. Cameron and Osborne must be pleased.
Labour will do badly in Scotland, well in Wales, and London is too close to call. That's according to the opinion polls of course.
I remember Dr Palmer was never all that fond of Diane... I wonder how he feels now about getting into bed with her (in a strictly political sense of course) ?
Stirring Jezza's ethically produced Gluten free organic porridge?
joncraigSKYVerified account @joncraig Turnout in Oldham by-election officially declared by returning officer as 40.26%, higher than some predictions & not bad for December poll.
Comments
Of course the turnout bet was the real zinger.
CON: 52.5% (-17.1)
IND: 18.5% (+18.5)
LAB: 15.2% (-15.1)
UKIP: 13.8% (+13.8)
They ran out of superheroes so now they are merging the franchises.
Star Wars vs Star Trek next.
CON: 52.5% (-17.1)
IND: 18.5% (+18.5)
LAB: 15.2% (-15.1)
UKIP: 13.8% (+13.8)
Jezza bounce
2. Inspired.
Do i win a book or a Ladbrokes free bet?
Anyway UKIP realistically never had a chance, it was the anti-Corbynites who where dreaming of it.
Spoken to local contacts from both parties. UKIP contact said they're not expecting a win. Labour contact says they may have 50% of vote
Reminds me of indyref when I was able to lay 95%+ turnout @ 5/2
Just even referring to Labour and terrorists / intimidation / death threats in the same sentence is going to do massive damage.
A total of 1,997 votes were cast in the Boleyn Ward by-election. Veronica Oakehsott (Labour), Newham's new councillor received 1,440 votes.
Oldham West & Royton turnout:
27,795 (40.3%)
Much higher than expected.
Pong LAB MARGIN 10@9 25+
Tissue Price LAB MARGIN 20@13/2 5 to 10
Fat Steve LAB MARGIN 10@8 0 to 5
Fat Steve LAB MARGIN 10@6 5 to 10
RCS LAB UO 100@5/6 u16
FOX Con/UKIP 10@7/2
Pulpstar Con/LD 120@1/6
Andy JS Lab to Lose 5@8
FOX LAB MARGIN 10@4 10 to 15
Oldham West & Royton turnout:
27,795 (40.3%)
Much higher than expected.
40.26% turnout with 27,795 votes means the electorate has dropped a couple of thousand since the general election.
Oldham West & Royton turnout:
27,795 (40.3%)
Much higher than expected.
I lost that one.
Lib Dem source at Oldham count predicts Labour just over 60%.
This Lib Dem is either very well-informed or deluded!
That is critical for the odds of David Herdson eating Lord Ashdowns hat.
With @RachaelMaskell MP, @johnmcdonnellMP & Labour members phoning people in #Oldham for @CllrJimMcMahon #IbackJim
He tweeted at 10.30. Probably to busy phoning earlier...or they let him phone only when polls were closed
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George EatonVerified account
@georgeeaton
Lib Dem source at Oldham count predicts Labour just over 60%.
Jezza bounce Danczuk will be disappointed
That's according to the opinion polls of course.
Lib Dem source at Oldham count predicts Labour just over 60%.
David Herdson will eat Lord Ashdown's hat it seems.
Full photographic evidence to be posted on PB, Mr.Herdson.
Though I was a bit more cautious on NoJam
No one ever gets rich backing spurs or ukip.
All is well
joncraigSKYVerified account
@joncraig
Turnout in Oldham by-election officially declared by returning officer as 40.26%, higher than some predictions & not bad for December poll.
Lab 15500 55%
UKIP 8500 30%
Oth 4000 14%