Update from the count using photos, UKIP and the Tories are very close on Table 16 (the only one clearly visible), the Labour tray is obscured by the lady in front though: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVVdDSEUwAAcmoN.jpg
Though it seems to have been written out of history, Glorious Leader David Cameron almost lost his first by-election in a Tory-held seat -- he suffered a 14% swing away from him to the Lib Dems in Bromley and Chislehurst in June 2006.
"True, but look at the states that matter, and the percentage of Latinos: Colorado 21.2 Iowa: 5.6 Ohio: 3.5 Nevada: 27.8 Pennsylvania: 6.6 Michigan: 4.8 Virginia: 8.9 N.Carolina: 9 Minnesota: 5.1 Florida: 24.1 (special case, those Latinos are Cuban not Mexican, Cuban's vote differently)
As you can see only Colorado and Nevada have high numbers of latino votes and they only have 6 and 9 Electoral Votes. The problem for the republicans is getting the white working class to vote for them again after the crash of 2008, not the minorities. Example look at Ohio, the drop in Latinos voting for the GOP only cost them max 0.7%, the GOP lost Ohio by much larger percentages than that."
Colorado, Nevada and Florida between them comprise 43 Electoral College votes, fail to win at least one of those states and it is highly likely you lose the presidency. The Republicans would have to win Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, New Hampshire and Michigan to win to compensate, almost impossible, so wrong. In Florida a majority of Hispanics are non-Cuban, with Cubans making up just over a third of the Hispanics there so the GOP cannot ignore the Hispanic vote there either http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/factsheets/9.pdf
"The Daily Mirror is reporting that Labour’s majority could be reduced to under 1,000. A party figure I spoke to earlier seemed rather more confident than you would expect if that forecast were accurate, but the Mirror figures are broadly in line with this prediction from the elections expert Ian Warren."
@MrHarryCole: Talk of Labour 6:1 on postal votes. 6,000 head start and low turnout on day. Add to that them talking it down would point to comfortable win
Do air strike against IS in Syria make you feel more safe, less safe, or no difference
Less 43 More 20 No Diff 38
54/46 Support them though
The war had a 17 point lead just a few days ago with yougov, opinions are changing quickly.
Perfectly understandable IMO.
Before airstrikes = lower threat* therefore more gung-ho in support After airstrikes = threat higher, it's actually happening, therefore more cautious.
*I don't personally think airstrikes makes us any less safe. It's a matter of degree. If now 101 people want us destroyed vs 100 previously, the concept of "less safe" becomes moot.
It's also the case that the previous polls were in the near aftermath of Paris, so may have represented a "spike" in themselves.
Do air strike against IS in Syria make you feel more safe, less safe, or no difference
Less 43 More 20 No Diff 38
54/46 Support them though
The war had a 17 point lead just a few days ago with yougov, opinions are changing quickly.
Perfectly understandable IMO.
Before airstrikes = lower threat* therefore more gung-ho in support After airstrikes = threat higher, it's actually happening, therefore more cautious.
*I don't personally think airstrikes makes us any less safe. It's a matter of degree. If now 101 people want us destroyed vs 100 previously, the concept of "less safe" becomes moot.
It's also the case that the previous polls were in the near aftermath of Paris, so may have represented a "spike" in themselves now reverting to mean.
Though it seems to have been written out of history, Glorious Leader David Cameron almost lost his first by-election in a Tory-held seat -- he suffered a 14% swing away from him to the Lib Dems in Bromley and Chislehurst in June 2006.
Though it seems to have been written out of history, Glorious Leader David Cameron almost lost his first by-election in a Tory-held seat -- he suffered a 14% swing away from him to the Lib Dems in Bromley and Chislehurst in June 2006.
This is a seat UKIP shouldn't be even close to winning, but Corbyn has done his best to try and lose this by election.
So Mr Corbyn has done his best to lose this by-election, yet Labour are still thought to be holding it comfortably.
That's good news for the Corbynites then, surely? It undermines the claims that he's an election-loser.
The Tooting by election is what will seal Mr Corbyn's fate
True, that will be a close one. However Khan might decide to keep his seat and be MP and Mayor like Boris.
London tends to give Corbyn better ratings than the country as a whole so I doubt Labour will lose Tooting, a Labour northern or Midlands seat with a lower Muslim vote is more likely
Though it seems to have been written out of history, Glorious Leader David Cameron almost lost his first by-election in a Tory-held seat -- he suffered a 14% swing away from him to the Lib Dems in Bromley and Chislehurst in June 2006.
Though it seems to have been written out of history, Glorious Leader David Cameron almost lost his first by-election in a Tory-held seat -- he suffered a 14% swing away from him to the Lib Dems in Bromley and Chislehurst in June 2006.
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole 4m4 minutes ago Talk of Labour 6:1 on postal votes. 6,000 head start and low turnout on day. Add to that them talking it down would point to comfortable win
Britain Elects Retweeted Helen Pidd @helenpidd 4m4 minutes ago "We've clearly lost", a Ukip source tells me at the Oldham West & Royton byelection count.
This is a seat UKIP shouldn't be even close to winning, but Corbyn has done his best to try and lose this by election.
So Mr Corbyn has done his best to lose this by-election, yet Labour are still thought to be holding it comfortably.
That's good news for the Corbynites then, surely? It undermines the claims that he's an election-loser.
Michael Foot won Oldham West by over 3,000 votes in 1983 when Margaret Thatcher won a majority of over 140 nationally and Labour got just 27% of the national vote, it may mean Corbyn might scrape 200 seats on a good night but claiming he is an election winner is pushing it a bit, especially as Labour is still likely to see its majority cut since May
Britain Elects Retweeted Helen Pidd @helenpidd 4m4 minutes ago "We've clearly lost", a Ukip source tells me at the Oldham West & Royton byelection count.
They cannot know that at this situation without intricate detailed knowledge of the voting profiles of individual polling stations as they are counted. UKIP will not have that. For it to be accurately assessed they are ,owing at this stage means they are 5,000+ behind labour.
This is a seat UKIP shouldn't be even close to winning, but Corbyn has done his best to try and lose this by election.
So Mr Corbyn has done his best to lose this by-election, yet Labour are still thought to be holding it comfortably.
That's good news for the Corbynites then, surely? It undermines the claims that he's an election-loser.
Michael Foot won Oldham West by over 3,000 votes in 1983 when Margaret Thatcher won a majority of over 140 nationally and Labour got just 27% of the national vote, it may mean Corbyn might scrape 200 seats on a good night but claiming he is an election winner is pushing it a bit, especially as Labour is still likely to see its majority cut since May
Colorado, Nevada and Florida between them comprise 43 Electoral College votes, fail to win at least one of those states and it is highly likely you lose the presidency. The Republicans would have to win Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, New Hampshire and Michigan to win to compensate, almost impossible, so wrong. In Florida a majority of Hispanics are non-Cuban, with Cubans making up just over a third of the Hispanics there so the GOP cannot ignore the Hispanic vote there either http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/factsheets/9.pdf
In Florida mexicans are only 7.5% of the latino vote, 2/3rds of them are puerto-ricans (Puerto Rico is a US territory) and cubans. You have to learn to distinguish the nationality of the latino vote by country of origin. So when lets say Trump insults mexican illegal immigrants we know the magnitude of it's impact. Without Florida which is a special case (as I said Latinos there are not mexicans), Colorado and Nevada together are 15 electoral votes, less that the smallest rust belt state (Michigan 16 E.Votes).
Though it seems to have been written out of history, Glorious Leader David Cameron almost lost his first by-election in a Tory-held seat -- he suffered a 14% swing away from him to the Lib Dems in Bromley and Chislehurst in June 2006.
Though the last opinion poll before that by-election had the Tories on 36% and Labour on 35% and the LDs on 18%, the last opinion poll before this by-election has the Tories on 41% and Labour on 30%, UKIP on 16% and the LDs on 6% http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010
This is a seat UKIP shouldn't be even close to winning, but Corbyn has done his best to try and lose this by election.
So Mr Corbyn has done his best to lose this by-election, yet Labour are still thought to be holding it comfortably.
That's good news for the Corbynites then, surely? It undermines the claims that he's an election-loser.
Michael Foot won Oldham West by over 3,000 votes in 1983 when Margaret Thatcher won a majority of over 140 nationally and Labour got just 27% of the national vote, it may mean Corbyn might scrape 200 seats on a good night but claiming he is an election winner is pushing it a bit, especially as Labour is still likely to see its majority cut since May
Britain Elects Retweeted Helen Pidd @helenpidd 4m4 minutes ago "We've clearly lost", a Ukip source tells me at the Oldham West & Royton byelection count.
23.03: Because of the nature of this seat, we can expect varying reports at different points of the night. 20% of the electorate is British Asian, and are largely condensed to communities in the centre of the seat.
Around that, all across the east of the seat, is white working class communities. It is among these voters that UKIP are taking chunks out of Labour support. In the west of the seat are more middle class areas, where UKIP are likely to be taking votes away from the Tories. Data guru (and former Labour staffer) Ian Warren has an excellent analysis of the constituency in greater depth in The Guardian.
Opening of ballot boxes is already well underway, and while 20 minutes ago Labour appeared to be smashing it, UKIP have now had a few boxes fall heavily in their favour. Don’t let anyone tell you it’s over yet.
An awful lot of people with egg on their faces. How the hell this got talked up to a virtual neck and neck fight I don't know. Anyway I am richer tonight so happy I guess. Corbyn is safe which is great news as well.
Tweet on Britainelects suggests that Labour would do well initially as muslim vote from centre comes in first - and then UKIP would claw back from the areas further out.
And so is his accurate down to the last figure prediction. The question is whether David Herdson will eat Lord Ashdown's hat if Labour get 55+% as he promised on PB.
Colorado, Nevada and Florida between them comprise 43 Electoral College votes, fail to win at least one of those states and it is highly likely you lose the presidency. The Republicans would have to win Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, New Hampshire and Michigan to win to compensate, almost impossible, so wrong. In Florida a majority of Hispanics are non-Cuban, with Cubans making up just over a third of the Hispanics there so the GOP cannot ignore the Hispanic vote there either http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/factsheets/9.pdf
In Florida mexicans are only 7.5% of the latino vote, 2/3rds of them are puerto-ricans (Puerto Rico is a US territory) and cubans. You have to learn to distinguish the nationality of the latino vote by country of origin. So when lets say Trump insults mexican illegal immigrants we know the magnitude of it's impact. Without Florida which is a special case (as I said Latinos there are not mexicans), Colorado and Nevada together are 15 electoral votes, less that the smallest rust belt state (Michigan 16 E.Votes).
Obama swept non-Cuban voters in 2012 in Florida winning 66% of them to 34% for Romney, Cubans split almost equally, 49% for Obama and 47% for Romney, close to the 50% to 49% margin by which Obama won the state, had Obama not won non-Cuban Hispanics as strongly Romney would almost certainly have won Florida
Even among Latino voters with family incomes of $50,000 or more across the US, 59% voted for Obama while 39% voted for Romney.
Colorado, Nevada and Florida between them comprise 43 Electoral College votes, fail to win at least one of those states and it is highly likely you lose the presidency. The Republicans would have to win Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, New Hampshire and Michigan to win to compensate, almost impossible, so wrong. In Florida a majority of Hispanics are non-Cuban, with Cubans making up just over a third of the Hispanics there so the GOP cannot ignore the Hispanic vote there either http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/factsheets/9.pdf
In Florida mexicans are only 7.5% of the latino vote, 2/3rds of them are puerto-ricans (Puerto Rico is a US territory) and cubans. You have to learn to distinguish the nationality of the latino vote by country of origin. So when lets say Trump insults mexican illegal immigrants we know the magnitude of it's impact. Without Florida which is a special case (as I said Latinos there are not mexicans), Colorado and Nevada together are 15 electoral votes, less that the smallest rust belt state (Michigan 16 E.Votes).
You have also proven what I was saying, that Cubans vote differently than Mexicans which is why we must break down the latino vote by state and nationality of origin.
"A conservative party source has told the Telegraph that they expect Labour's majority to plummet to just 2,000 votes. "The majority is going to be slashed, of that there is little doubt," he said. "We expect the majority to drop from 15,000 down to as little as 2,000. That's a hollow victory.""
Though it seems to have been written out of history, Glorious Leader David Cameron almost lost his first by-election in a Tory-held seat -- he suffered a 14% swing away from him to the Lib Dems in Bromley and Chislehurst in June 2006.
If Labour fake enough postal ballots to win the seat, you may wish some cheering up. The second Batman vs Superman trailer is out. Doomsday & Wonder Woman's in it.
Comments
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVVdDSEUwAAcmoN.jpg
https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/672546771588030465
@DPJHodges: Can't remember seeing anyone humiliate themself so comprehensively as Diane Abbott just did over Iraq bombing on QT.
@francesbarber13: Diane Abbott is on my Telly again. That's 3 I've smashed since Tuesday .
"True, but look at the states that matter, and the percentage of Latinos:
Colorado 21.2
Iowa: 5.6
Ohio: 3.5
Nevada: 27.8
Pennsylvania: 6.6
Michigan: 4.8
Virginia: 8.9
N.Carolina: 9
Minnesota: 5.1
Florida: 24.1 (special case, those Latinos are Cuban not Mexican, Cuban's vote differently)
As you can see only Colorado and Nevada have high numbers of latino votes and they only have 6 and 9 Electoral Votes.
The problem for the republicans is getting the white working class to vote for them again after the crash of 2008, not the minorities.
Example look at Ohio, the drop in Latinos voting for the GOP only cost them max 0.7%, the GOP lost Ohio by much larger percentages than that."
Colorado, Nevada and Florida between them comprise 43 Electoral College votes, fail to win at least one of those states and it is highly likely you lose the presidency. The Republicans would have to win Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, New Hampshire and Michigan to win to compensate, almost impossible, so wrong. In Florida a majority of Hispanics are non-Cuban, with Cubans making up just over a third of the Hispanics there so the GOP cannot ignore the Hispanic vote there either
http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/factsheets/9.pdf
I appreciate that if you are on a panel with Diane you are going to need all the strength god gave you not to appear condescending and sanctimonious.
Dave if you're reading. Make me a Peer.
Talk of Labour 6:1 on postal votes. 6,000 head start and low turnout on day. Add to that them talking it down would point to comfortable win
Helen Pidd @helenpidd 4m4 minutes ago
"We've clearly lost", a Ukip source tells me at the Oldham West & Royton byelection count.
You have to learn to distinguish the nationality of the latino vote by country of origin.
So when lets say Trump insults mexican illegal immigrants we know the magnitude of it's impact.
Without Florida which is a special case (as I said Latinos there are not mexicans), Colorado and Nevada together are 15 electoral votes, less that the smallest rust belt state (Michigan 16 E.Votes).
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010
.... AAAAAAAAAAAAAARGGGHHHHHHH she's doing it again. Breeeeeeathe...
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/672549791885340672
George EatonVerified account
@georgeeaton
Lib Dem source at Oldham count: Labour over 50%, Ukip poor second, other parties lost deposits.
Seems the photos from the count were not lying.
Someone might eat Lord Ashdowns hat tonight (David Herdson).
Jez should keep her on TV, rather than sending her on a bike riding trip to Germany.
Sweet.
23.03: Because of the nature of this seat, we can expect varying reports at different points of the night. 20% of the electorate is British Asian, and are largely condensed to communities in the centre of the seat.
Around that, all across the east of the seat, is white working class communities. It is among these voters that UKIP are taking chunks out of Labour support. In the west of the seat are more middle class areas, where UKIP are likely to be taking votes away from the Tories. Data guru (and former Labour staffer) Ian Warren has an excellent analysis of the constituency in greater depth in The Guardian.
Opening of ballot boxes is already well underway, and while 20 minutes ago Labour appeared to be smashing it, UKIP have now had a few boxes fall heavily in their favour. Don’t let anyone tell you it’s over yet.
The question is whether David Herdson will eat Lord Ashdown's hat if Labour get 55+% as he promised on PB.
Even among Latino voters with family incomes of $50,000 or more across the US, 59% voted for Obama while 39% voted for Romney.
http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/07/latino-voters-in-the-2012-election/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida,_2012
Michigan even voted for Kerry, I doubt it will vote for Trump
Yes but "not inclement for the time of year" doesn't have the same ring to it...
George Eaton @georgeeaton 11m11 minutes ago
Lib Dem source at Oldham count: Labour over 50%, Ukip poor second, other parties lost deposits.
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/672552170395467776?lang=en-gb
Just two questions:
1. Al Qaeda or IS?
2. Inspired by or directed by?
That'd be astounding if the Tories have lost their deposit.
"The majority is going to be slashed, of that there is little doubt," he said.
"We expect the majority to drop from 15,000 down to as little as 2,000. That's a hollow victory.""
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/parliamentary-constituencies/oldham-west-and-royton/12031040/oldham-west-royton-by-election-results.html
CON: 63.8% (-8.4)
LAB: 22.9% (+22.9)
UKIP: 13.3% (-14.4)
CON HOLD
And the answer's no.
Is it because the police and authorities are thick, or do they turn a blind eye?
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/672540760651231232
Teme Valley (Malvern Hills) result:
CON: 63.8% (-8.4)
LAB: 22.9% (+22.9)
UKIP: 13.3% (-14.4)