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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB Oldham Prediction and this week’s local by-elections

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP are a busted flush in seats like Oldham, that's true.

    Fabulous result - and so huge that really UKIP grumbling about postal votes is irrelevant. They are a busted flush.

    I did think turnout would be respectable - for some reason it was at a national average level of 60% even at the GE when everyone knew it was a walkover, and after weeks of intensive campaigning it looked likely to be decent even in December.

    BTW, probably reported earlier, but a Standard poll today puts Khan 6 points ahead.

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,088
    Danny565 said:

    David Cameron did not do as well as a 7-point increase in the Tory vote in a byelection until more than 2 years into his leadership.

    #justsayin

    Yes but he had had several poll leads by this stage of his leadership, Corbyn has had none, William Hague's first by-election saw the Tories increase their majority in Uxbridge, in 2001 they were trounced #justsayin Night!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,088
    Speedy said:

    George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 55s55 seconds ago
    Labour vote share up to 62.2% (+7.4%) since May - very good result.

    Best result for Labour in Oldham on record.
    Hilary Benn is toast.

    I have always said Corbyn will hang on until 2017 at least, plenty of time for Hilary still
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    isam said:

    A seat UKIP could never win, that's all there is to it.

    Amazing that bookies had it so close when the result was so emphatic, and predictable really.

    You've got 6 firms on oddschecker taking their politics odds from 2 3rd party odds supplier. Only takes 1 trader to drift lab to flag up 3 firms showing an odds move, the other firms odds alert system will flash up and more than likely they will just get in line with the others out of laziness especially when there isnt much liquidity on bf.

    I dont think the betting industry has been this bad in terms of talent imo, my advice to the knowledgeable lot who post on here, back yourselves.
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    viewcode said:
    Sore loser definitely, but anyone who thinks postal voting is above board is a fool.
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