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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB Oldham Prediction and this week’s local by-elections
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB Oldham Prediction and this week’s local by-elections
Ash South and Tongham on Guildford (Con defence)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 35, Liberal Democrats 9, Guildford Greenbelt 3, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 22)
Result of ward at last election (2015):
0
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Except the more I think about it, the analogy doesn't work.
I will look shrewd and it means UKIP wont become an ee-by-gum whippets and hotpot party
Essex and Kent is our heartland!
This is a seat UKIP shouldn't be even close to winning, but Corbyn has done his best to try and lose this by election.
That was what I was trying to avoid laying at first, but wwhen UKIP shortened so much, I had to push it out
That said, Ill take it!
That's good news for the Corbynites then, surely? It undermines the claims that he's an election-loser.
The north is where there are votes going begging.
And mining there means you also get Tory governments. Which is in everyone's interest.
A loss of this seat for Labour and Benn's speech yesterday would be the death knell for Corbyn's leadership.
Except they will probably keep the seat, even on a reduced margin, and blame everyone else but themselves.
Failed Corbyn => More Corbyn.
@foxinsoxuk Thanks for the reply.
To pass time here is a 30 minute version of the Matrix:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPOXR4dXxDQ
Clacton, Thurrock, South Thanet, Rochester, Dagenham, Hornchurch, etc etc
https://www.thevenusproject.com/en/
There are large swathes of the semi-urban north where there will be less opposition and a good amount of the can't be arsed party vote to tap into...
Anyway I am not going to let you wind me up. I am off until nearer result time.
;-)
Which means that Corbyn is safe until next May's local elections resulting in serious damage to Labour around the country. Followed by Labour's civil war.
Constituency betting brings a lot better return than any bank account.
Well, 22 now
I think you might be right, then.
Loads of mates live in tooting. It's turned from dodgy to yummy-mummy central in the last 5 years. Isn't the council Walthamstow pretty blue, too?
We can all look forward to a By Election in the West Country, where they'll ponce about dressed in smocks like the Worzels, and wonder why they lose again.
However Khan might decide to keep his seat and be MP and Mayor like Boris.
On the by-election, I fear PB may have been a bit over optimistic about UKIP's chances of a close result out of desire for it to be interesting. But they apparently love Labour, and had a hard left MP for yonks, even losing a sizable chunk of support thanks to recent events was not going to impact the result enough to make it less than comfortable to Labour, probably.
We'll see if that makes me look silly in the morning.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/oldham-west-and-royton/winning-party
Maybe they're on to something.
Or maybe not.
Down here, I doubt if they'd be able to find a place to buy a Wurzel smock. I've never seen one in a shop.
But let us not forget, counting hasn't even started.
Have you seen Hitler versus Khan!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Su12yhLT2o
http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2015/42/
Labour have won all nine wards in the constituency in each election from 2010 onwards.
OTOH one of the closest times UKIP have come to actually winning a seat of their own was Heywood and Middleton. That was pre Corbyn too before Labour went into meltdown and did as much as possible to ostracise voters. If UKIP were to be serious about winning seats then looking down your nose at whippets and hotpot is not the answer.
Betting markets seem convinced Labour has won #OldhamWest . Just taken a £1,000 bet at 1/12.
http://www.nrm.org.uk/flyingscotsman/see/photos.aspx
@DMcCaffreySKY: FROM OLDHAM: Senior UKIP sources tell me party had strong showing today, probably beating Labour but postal ballots may count against them.
Time will tell if it was optimistic spin.
Prediction: Lab: 8,912 (41.9%) / UKIP 7,780 (36.6%) / Con 3,381 (15.9%) / LD 801 (3.8%) / Greens 373 (1.8%). Make that a 14.5% swing. 1/2
Either this weekend or next weekend, I'm doing a thread on David Hasselhoff
I've backed the tories above 250/1, although the value is pretty marginal.
It's a bit like a buy-one-get-one-free on lottery tickets, or something.
Just for fun.
I've just watched the Hilary Benn speech on YouTube. From his visits to town here I've always thought him competent and clever. Now I think he has the punch to lead the party. And he's Labour through & through.
Hilarious conversations with mates in Earlsfield recently - they all love what the Tories are doing for council tax but wouldn't dream of voting blue in the general.
Earlsfield is Yummy Mummy central TSE - I think you'd like it!
The senior UKIP sources better be right otherwise they are not close to managing expectations properly.
Lab 11,633 (40.9%)
UKIP 11,016 (38.7)
Con 3,496 (12.3)
LD 1,457 (5.1)
Grn 870 (3.1)
Swing 18.5% Lab - UKIP
Turnout 36.0%