politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so now we turn to leader resignations triggering off ma
Comments
-
It is a shame Boris doesn't do detail, because otherwise he'd be ideal with his high profile, experience of press and television, and popularity with the grass roots. It would also make him less of a leadership rival to Osborne and May when Cameron retires in 2017, since he'd have no Cabinet experience.FrancisUrquhart said:Tories need to get rid of Mr Green as their main media man...he is so slimey. They need to get themselves a straight talking no nonsense person to do the media rounds.
Hmm. Has Cameron seen off Miliband, Clegg, Farage AND Boris, all in the same day?0 -
She'd be great.watford30 said:
Kate Hoey?Flightpathl said:
If he does then he Tories should press for a mainstream fair-minded honest broker of a labour MP for the job. We certainly need someone who is willing to do an honest job of reforming the job of Speaker.barnehurst_bob said:will Bercow make it 4? He may jump if he thinks he's about to be pushed.
0 -
But they fell a long way short in Ceredigion. Nobody else seemed to have much trouble dispatching the Lib Dems!AndyJS said:
They failed to knock out Labour in Ynys Mon by 229 votes.Tissue_Price said:
Plaid did woefully given the advantages they had (all others bar UKIP being in government).AndyJS said:
There was a swing of 1% to the Tories in Wales. Cardiff North confounded most expectations.MarqueeMark said:
The Gower was one I pointed out early in the campaign. Consistently said the Tories would do surprisingly well in Wales.AndyJS said:I'm still in a daze over how Labour managed to lose seats like Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Derby North, Bolton West, Telford to the Conservatives.
0 -
Impressive in terms of activists turnout but labour ground game is maybe a bit clueless in reading well the mood on the street.I don't want to blame them, actually, I've lots of sympathy towards them as I suppose they are very disappointed today.
I get the impression they really weren't expecting such poor results in England and Wales.
On election day they were still out in force in seats they lost by big margins (for ex Battarsea or Vale of Glamorgan), while neighbouring seats were lost by small majorities.
0 -
One day I shall have to tot up whether John Bercow or Nick Clegg has made me more money by not leaving their jobs by given dates. I am sad to see Mr Clegg finally go: he's been a small goldmine.0
-
One of my colleagues is friends with Marcus Fysh, the new MP for Yeovil. Apparently, the win was entirely unexpected to him.0
-
I think they helped to provide the LDs with their biggest majority in that seat. Well done to Harry Hayfield of this parish who is a LD campaigner in Ceredigion.Tissue_Price said:
But they fell a long way short in Ceredigion. Nobody else seemed to have much trouble dispatching the Lib Dems!AndyJS said:
They failed to knock out Labour in Ynys Mon by 229 votes.Tissue_Price said:
Plaid did woefully given the advantages they had (all others bar UKIP being in government).AndyJS said:
There was a swing of 1% to the Tories in Wales. Cardiff North confounded most expectations.MarqueeMark said:
The Gower was one I pointed out early in the campaign. Consistently said the Tories would do surprisingly well in Wales.AndyJS said:I'm still in a daze over how Labour managed to lose seats like Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Derby North, Bolton West, Telford to the Conservatives.
0 -
It's more than just scotland, tactical voting didn't exist anywhere apart from UKIP areas against UKIP.antifrank said:
The reason that tactical voting didn't have much impact can be summed up very succinctly: SNP 50%. That's hard for tactical voting to overcome.calum said:The tactical voting crowed are in a bit of a meltdown, hopefully Curtis et al will get to the bottom of what impact, if any, their efforts had. They're already gearing up for Holyrood 2016, they'll need a 3 dimensional model for this instead of a wheel:
https://twitter.com/SNPOut0 -
Backing PC is Ceredigion was my only bet in Wales. :-(Tissue_Price said:
But they fell a long way short in Ceredigion. Nobody else seemed to have much trouble dispatching the Lib Dems!AndyJS said:
They failed to knock out Labour in Ynys Mon by 229 votes.Tissue_Price said:
Plaid did woefully given the advantages they had (all others bar UKIP being in government).AndyJS said:
There was a swing of 1% to the Tories in Wales. Cardiff North confounded most expectations.MarqueeMark said:
The Gower was one I pointed out early in the campaign. Consistently said the Tories would do surprisingly well in Wales.AndyJS said:I'm still in a daze over how Labour managed to lose seats like Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Derby North, Bolton West, Telford to the Conservatives.
0 -
MikeL said:
What a mess Ed made for Lab.
David Miliband would undoubtedly have done much better. Not saying he would have won but Cameron would never have got a majority against David Miliband.
I know many on here don't rate him but, critically, he is a credible PM.
And a myth is borne..!
0 -
watford30
In your dreams. Salmond was a big fish in the HoC when part oif a group of three/six facing Tory/Labour majorities of 100+.
0 -
Extremely annoying. I had tipped and backed that.AndyJS said:
They failed to knock out Labour in Ynys Mon by 229 votes.Tissue_Price said:
Plaid did woefully given the advantages they had (all others bar UKIP being in government).AndyJS said:
There was a swing of 1% to the Tories in Wales. Cardiff North confounded most expectations.MarqueeMark said:
The Gower was one I pointed out early in the campaign. Consistently said the Tories would do surprisingly well in Wales.AndyJS said:I'm still in a daze over how Labour managed to lose seats like Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Derby North, Bolton West, Telford to the Conservatives.
0 -
If they are giving it to Labour, Lindsay Hoyle is probably the favouriteFlightpathl said:
If he does then he Tories should press for a mainstream fair-minded honest broker of a labour MP for the job. We certainly need someone who is willing to do an honest job of reforming the job of Speaker.barnehurst_bob said:will Bercow make it 4? He may jump if he thinks he's about to be pushed.
0 -
Simple solution is a straight swap of opposition LD and SNP surely.oxfordsimon said:Going to be interesting to see how PMQs are reconfigured. Who gets to ask questions every week? In what order?
IE SNP gets two questions a week. LD I think get 1 a fortnight. For leaders obviously.0 -
Depends if they want to go left to take back votes from UKIP or right to take on the Tories. (This assumes that they don't want more of the same!)Patrick said:
Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?HYUFD said:Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis
Hard to see somebody who was part of the 2010 intake winning so who ever it is will probably have some ties to Miliband or Brown.0 -
Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.0
-
Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)0
-
It's a shame Gummo Miliband didn't go into politics.0
-
I've never met a Labour supporter or heard a Labour MP ever show any indication that they don't believe in the magic money tree.Patrick said:
Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?HYUFD said:Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis
You may as well try and teach a dog to speak Chinese.0 -
Gone home to UKIP no doubt. If we thought we'd seen appalling standards from UKIPpers since 2010 what will they be like now??Andrew said:Another nice little positive: the BNP have disappeared entirely. Just 1667 votes nationally, compared to well over half a million last time.
0 -
Yes, I totted up my 'Won't be toast before the GE' bets the other day and they were a fine crop, featuring not only the aforesaid Mr Clegg, but also Mrs May as Home Sec, and Messrs Osborne as Chancellor, Bercow as Speaker, and Miliband as Labour leader. I think my only loser was William Hague as Foreign Sec.antifrank said:One day I shall have to tot up whether John Bercow or Nick Clegg has made me more money by not leaving their jobs by given dates. I am sad to see Mr Clegg finally go: he's been a small goldmine.
0 -
What moved the Tory total from 327 to 328?0
-
Just seen this (added by someone other than me!) in the Wiki Opinion Poll list.
https://docs.google.com/a/surveymonkey.com/spreadsheets/d/1JWLYf5LLfLEMlN-_18WF18nSCK0si5Bfal6WyQwrRaI/edit?pli=1#gid=10614390230 -
Patrick Why? Cameron is an old Etonian, Oxbridge PR man, Blair was a slick Public school educated lawyer, both succeeded state educated PMs. It is not where you come from that matters so much as what you say. I think that list would be a very good list and all of those figures could be a future Labour PM, moderate, telegenic and reasonable. Umunna Britain's first black PM, Cooper Labour's first woman PM, Burnham a northener, Jarvis ex army. Umunna and Jarvis were not even elected until 2010/20110
-
Comprehensive-educated Dan Jarvis is not from Islington, represents Barnsley and certainly had a life before he became an MP:Patrick said:
Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?HYUFD said:Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Jarvis
0 -
Kenilworth & Southam.KentRising said:What moved the Tory total from 327 to 328?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E140007670 -
But who cares (even if you are right).Speedy said:
Now the moaning for what that promise actually is will start.HYUFD said:Speedy He prmised to stick to his pledge for a fair deal for England too
Cameron will have a year of a honeymoon, and then the knifes will come out like Major after 1992.
We are where we are now and whatever it means to be where that is must be faced. Real and political life goes on from where we are. The problems will be there and we have to live with getting through them. Its no use avoiding issues. I believe that is called leadership.0 -
Welcome back, Marcus - and isn't it STUNNING?!Marcus01 said:
Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.
0 -
Shapps knows the law on Boundary changes!
Hardly anyone else does!0 -
"For we are the people of England, that never have spoken yet."OblitusSumMe said:
Assuming that Scotland goes its own way at some point, the Conservative majority in EWNI is forecast to be 70, in England alone 105.logical_song said:
It's a tiny majority, there are still 'awkward squad' tories. No LibDem involvement to restrain them this time.Slackbladder said:
England has and always will be a small-c consverative country. Blair understood that, that why New labour was needed.SouthamObserver said:I think we can now consign the anti-Tory party to history in England and Wales.
This really has been a game-changing election in so many ways. Almost all the old certainties have been laid to waste.
Opposition parties to get new leaders and a new start (except UKIP where Farage is copying his idol Putin).
We have seen the unexpected rebirth of Tory England.
Well, they spoke last night.
They need to skip a generation - to people like Stella Creasey or Liz Kendall. If they have any sense.MarqueeMark said:Polly plugging for Rachel Reeves to succeed Ed. Lol!
Rachel Reeves is just Ed in a fright wig. Exactly not what Labour need.
Just my friendly advice. We told you Ed was a dud. You might want to consult more widely on what constitutes a decent leader.
0 -
IMHO the reason the EU is a still-open wound to the Conservatives is that the then PM (Conservative Edward Heath) mis-sold it to the electorate. We were told it was a trading bloc only, with no political ambitions. That was, quite simply, not true. For this reason it seems to me only right & proper that a fresh referendum should be held. There is every reason to expect that, win or lose, the decision of the electorate will settle the matter. Maybe not for UKIP-inclined people, but for all reasonable people, yes.Cyclefree said:
3. I very much hope those bone-headed EU-obsessed Tories don't ruin things over the next few years. We do not need a rerun of 1992-1997 thank you very much.0 -
It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.Ishmael_X said:Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)
What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.0 -
You always leave George Osborne off your list of magic money tree believers. Now there is no election to win, perhaps it is time for a closer look at the mountain of debt he has racked up.CopperSulphate said:
I've never met a Labour supporter or heard a Labour MP ever show any indication that they don't believe in the magic money tree.Patrick said:
Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?HYUFD said:Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis
You may as well try and teach a dog to speak Chinese.
0 -
Simon Danczuk defection.KentRising said:What moved the Tory total from 327 to 328?
0 -
Wow Labour need to pull their man from Sky, he is making a twit of himself.0
-
Can we entice Sean Fear back into the fold?0
-
Time to call on the third Miliband brother, Steve.Monkeys said:It's a shame Gummo Miliband didn't go into politics.
0 -
Welcome back, Marcus! You were unlucky in timing, but it's come right now.Marcus01 said:Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.
One thing which I believe is very significant is that many of the Con gains from the LibDems look very hard to reverse - they'll become safe Con seats now that the thread has been broken.0 -
ooh my Liz Kendall lay has been matched on Betfair.0
-
I don't know that I buy the 'electoral system is bust' thing completely, I think it works well for the voter 'at the point of use' to borrow a phrase
Complicated voting systems will confuse the average voter who just wants to put an x by the name of his or her preferred candidate
I'd change the number of constituencies to 600 and allocate the other 50 seats by each 2% of votes, so the voters do exactly the same job, they are represented by their local mp, but if there is a large proportion of the country that is underrepresented, that would be remedied
0 -
I'm sitting just two miles from KenilworthAndyJS said:
Kenilworth & Southam.KentRising said:What moved the Tory total from 327 to 328?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000767
0 -
Tories hold Hexham:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000746
Con vote up 9.5%. Maj 12,031.0 -
They need an northern working class social conservative and eurosceptic to take those massive Labour to UKIP voters back.Saltire said:
Depends if they want to go left to take back votes from UKIP or right to take on the Tories. (This assumes that they don't want more of the same!)Patrick said:
Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?HYUFD said:Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis
Hard to see somebody who was part of the 2010 intake winning so who ever it is will probably have some ties to Miliband or Brown.
Compouter2 will get angry, but Simon Danczuck fits that profile.0 -
I sincerely hope that whomever becomes Labour leader - they drop the inverted snobbery and Class War.
I never thought where someone went to school would be turned into a stick to beat them with in every breath in 2015.CopperSulphate said:
I've never met a Labour supporter or heard a Labour MP ever show any indication that they don't believe in the magic money tree.Patrick said:
Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?HYUFD said:Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis
You may as well try and teach a dog to speak Chinese.0 -
May 8th = VE Day
Victory over Ed Day! 0 -
A good value tip.Casino_Royale said:
Extremely annoying. I had tipped and backed that.AndyJS said:
They failed to knock out Labour in Ynys Mon by 229 votes.Tissue_Price said:
Plaid did woefully given the advantages they had (all others bar UKIP being in government).AndyJS said:
There was a swing of 1% to the Tories in Wales. Cardiff North confounded most expectations.MarqueeMark said:
The Gower was one I pointed out early in the campaign. Consistently said the Tories would do surprisingly well in Wales.AndyJS said:I'm still in a daze over how Labour managed to lose seats like Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Derby North, Bolton West, Telford to the Conservatives.
0 -
I have no idea what happened with the polls. Astonishing.antifrank said:
It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.Ishmael_X said:Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)
What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.
Is there not a case to be made that what happened was *just* at the extreme boundaries of the MoE of the final polls that almost all showed a tie?0 -
So - who is annoyed that they didn't back their winners for more and losers for less ?
Whoever is watching my bank account will be a happy bunny today.0 -
Or they could save time and join the Conservative party.SouthamObserver said:Then the people left can start to have a proper debate about what it means to be a centre left party in an age of internationalisation, globalisation and limited resources. Look at aspiration and encourage it, understand how businesses - SMEs especially - function and embrace them as the engines of our economy, but frame arguments that are based on the idea that we all do best when the state acts as a guarantor of minimum standards of living and maximum equality of opportunity. Labour needs to keep its commitment to the state, but it needs to rethink what that state can and should be. At the root of everything is the idea of solidarity: that we are better off as individuals and as family units when we work together and look after each other, that is modern social democracy. No easy slogans, no NHS worship, no Tories this and Tories that, concede past errors - it's time to be grown-up, to accept that the world has moved on and to develop a vision that reflects this. Then sell it, from door to door, from street to street, day in and day out. This is the only way back.
You may not have noticed but they're on this ground. No room for Labour here.
0 -
what a night.
time for work.
i'll let the dust settle before sorting logistics re isam and payment process - no idea how that works!0 -
Speedy The EU referendum and constitutional matters related to the UK will certainly form a key part in the next few years0
-
Whereas Alastair Carmichael is the enemy of PBers.antifrank said:One day I shall have to tot up whether John Bercow or Nick Clegg has made me more money by not leaving their jobs by given dates. I am sad to see Mr Clegg finally go: he's been a small goldmine.
1) He didn't quit the cabinet after the indyref as he said he would costing us money on the next out of the market
2) Which also made me lose a bet on there being a reshuffle before the GE
3) He was probably behind the leak of the Sturgeon memo causing some PBers to close out their SNP position at 42 seats.
If he had any decency, he'd become the next Lib Dem leader, because some of us have him at 40/10 -
If I were the next Labour leader, I'd be looking at how to combine Blue Labour themes with One Nation themes. My working title would be the Social Contract.0
-
I think the polls are useless.Casino_Royale said:
I have no idea what happened with the polls. Astonishing.antifrank said:
It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.Ishmael_X said:Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)
What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.
Is there not a case to be made that what happened was *just* at the extreme boundaries of the MoE of the final polls that almost all showed a tie?
The common theme uniting the SNP and Tories was decent leader ratings.0 -
You should thank UKIP for giving people who vehemently want immigration controlled a reputable party to vote for.Bond_James_Bond said:
Gone home to UKIP no doubt. If we thought we'd seen appalling standards from UKIPpers since 2010 what will they be like now??Andrew said:Another nice little positive: the BNP have disappeared entirely. Just 1667 votes nationally, compared to well over half a million last time.
And before you question 'reputable', I mean a party that at least professes to be non-racist, has a number of activists from ethnic minority backgrounds, and published during this campaign a non-extreme, grown-up manifesto (whatever you think of the policies therein).
0 -
Very Heseltine: Hope he looks into the pension-scheme that Finmeccanica have afforded some Labour hoon of a defence minister....El_Capitano said:Today's arbitrary prediction:
"President of the Board of Trade" title to be separated from BIS, and to be given to BoJo.
0 -
True. Just look At Romsey. It has a 17,000 majority!Richard_Nabavi said:
One thing which I believe is very significant is that many of the Con gains from the LibDems look very hard to reverse - they'll become safe Con seats now that the thread has been broken.Marcus01 said:Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.
0 -
Liz Kendall has energy and ambition, putting in the campaign miles. She is a fresh face and dry on economics, strong on health issues, knows the unions, and is home counties rather than London. Most of all she is an excellent communicator with natural emotional intelligence.Cyclefree said:OblitusSumMe said:
Assuming that Scotland goes its own way at some point, the Conservative majority in EWNI is forecast to be 70, in England alone 105.logical_song said:
It's a tiny majority, there are still 'awkward squad' tories. No LibDem involvement to restrain them this time.Slackbladder said:
England has and always will be a small-c consverative country. Blair understood that, that why New labour was needed.SouthamObserver said:I think we can now consign the anti-Tory party to history in England and Wales.
This really has been a game-changing election in so many ways. Almost all the old certainties have been laid to waste.
Opposition parties to get new leaders and a new start (except UKIP where Farage is copying his idol Putin).
We have seen the unexpected rebirth of Tory England.
They need to skip a generation - to people like Stella Creasey or Liz Kendall. If they have any sense.MarqueeMark said:Polly plugging for Rachel Reeves to succeed Ed. Lol!
Rachel Reeves is just Ed in a fright wig. Exactly not what Labour need.
Just my friendly advice. We told you Ed was a dud. You might want to consult more widely on what constitutes a decent leader.
There would also be the bizarre prospect of Greg Davies as first consort!0 -
Exactly - and that's why Cameron will definitely hold a referendum as scheduled.
It needs knocking on the head as an issue for another generation.AnneJGP said:
IMHO the reason the EU is a still-open wound to the Conservatives is that the then PM (Conservative Edward Heath) mis-sold it to the electorate. We were told it was a trading bloc only, with no political ambitions. That was, quite simply, not true. For this reason it seems to me only right & proper that a fresh referendum should be held. There is every reason to expect that, win or lose, the decision of the electorate will settle the matter. Maybe not for UKIP-inclined people, but for all reasonable people, yes.Cyclefree said:
3. I very much hope those bone-headed EU-obsessed Tories don't ruin things over the next few years. We do not need a rerun of 1992-1997 thank you very much.0 -
isam said:
I don't know that I buy the 'electoral system is bust' thing completely, I think it works well for the voter 'at the point of use' to borrow a phrase
Complicated voting systems will confuse the average voter who just wants to put an x by the name of his or her preferred candidate
I'd change the number of constituencies to 600 and allocate the other 50 seats by each 2% of votes, so the voters do exactly the same job, they are represented by their local mp, but if there is a large proportion of the country that is underrepresented, that would be remedied
You know it was the LibDems who used to complain about the unfairness of FPTP?
I guess UKIP now take up the protest-party mantle.
0 -
Boris can't take a cabinet/ministerial role until next May.
If he does, it would trigger a new Mayoral election.
So he will serve out his full term0 -
50% voted either Tory or UKIP. That includes Scotland.0
-
Just remember that there were far more labour votes to pinch than tory ones.Speedy said:
Well looking at the result, Labour needs a working class northerman, since UKIP took more votes from Labour than the Tories.Patrick said:
Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?HYUFD said:Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis
0 -
antifrank said:
It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.Ishmael_X said:Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)
What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.
What is truly baffling, is that Labour didn't scotch it immediately.antifrank said:
It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.Ishmael_X said:Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)
What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.0 -
I keep thinking it's Lord Levy - he's a dead ringer.FrancisUrquhart said:
Wow Labour need to pull their man from Sky, he is making a twit of himself.
0 -
Choosing a public school Leader is unfortunately something the Conservatives now have to avoid in future.Plato said:I sincerely hope that whomever becomes Labour leader - they drop the inverted snobbery and Class War.
I never thought where someone went to school would be turned into a stick to beat them with in every breath in 2015.CopperSulphate said:
I've never met a Labour supporter or heard a Labour MP ever show any indication that they don't believe in the magic money tree.Patrick said:
Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?HYUFD said:Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis
You may as well try and teach a dog to speak Chinese.
0 -
Anyone else got the bad feeling, now that Galloway has been turfed out in Bradford, that he's going to stand as London Mayor?0
-
I made a very similar point yesterday about how small polling errors akin to those we saw in the Scottish referendum could lead to an overall majority either way. But I think the pollsters need to start from deep humility and a recognition that this has been a catastrophic election for them.Casino_Royale said:
I have no idea what happened with the polls. Astonishing.antifrank said:
It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.Ishmael_X said:Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)
What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.
Is there not a case to be made that what happened was *just* at the extreme boundaries of the MoE of the final polls that almost all showed a tie?0 -
I am saddened to hear you sound so bitter Marcus.Marcus01 said:Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.
This "pointless political party" help to secure the nations future in 2010 and formed an integral part of one of the best post war governments the country has enjoyed.
A little grace might have been more appropriate Marcus. Sadly you couldn't manage it.
0 -
Cameron using "these islands" in his speech - nice nod to Nicola 0
-
I was saying for months the leader and competence ratings would tell. Mike Smithson repeatedly callled me a partisan Tory.Pulpstar said:
I think the polls are useless.Casino_Royale said:
I have no idea what happened with the polls. Astonishing.antifrank said:
It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.Ishmael_X said:Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)
What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.
Is there not a case to be made that what happened was *just* at the extreme boundaries of the MoE of the final polls that almost all showed a tie?
The common theme uniting the SNP and Tories was decent leader ratings.
But, by the end, even I was doubting it (and wobbled all the way down to 285 seats) because the polls simply didn't move as I expected them to do to match that, and actually moved *away* from the Tories in the final 36 hours.0 -
I can't see John Redwood launching a leadership bid this time, can you? Or Bill Cash being a permanent fixture on TV?Speedy said:
John Major's term will look like a picknick.HYUFD said:Speedy The EU referendum and constitutional matters related to the UK will certainly form a key part in the next few years
0 -
Winchester too, and Eastleigh pretty safe looking. In many ways this is a reversal to pre 97 times.TCPoliticalBetting said:
True. Just look At Romsey. It has a 17,000 majority!Richard_Nabavi said:
One thing which I believe is very significant is that many of the Con gains from the LibDems look very hard to reverse - they'll become safe Con seats now that the thread has been broken.Marcus01 said:Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.
0 -
I don't he's smart enough for the job, I'm afraid to say.Speedy said:
They need an northern working class social conservative and eurosceptic to take those massive Labour to UKIP voters back.Saltire said:
Depends if they want to go left to take back votes from UKIP or right to take on the Tories. (This assumes that they don't want more of the same!)Patrick said:
Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?HYUFD said:Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis
Hard to see somebody who was part of the 2010 intake winning so who ever it is will probably have some ties to Miliband or Brown.
Compouter2 will get angry, but Simon Danczuck fits that profile.
*thinks about George W. Bush*
*thinks about Alan Johnson*
Actually, ignore that.0 -
Jesus this is £160 quid isn't it? Did I forget about a big bet we had?Scrapheap_as_was said:what a night.
time for work.
i'll let the dust settle before sorting logistics re isam and payment process - no idea how that works!
You and eagles are buddies if you want to cut out the middle man take it out of what he owes me ?0 -
Another reason to be cheerful... no Labour Islamophobia law.
Hell yeah!0 -
It is Lord LevyPlato said:I keep thinking it's Lord Levy - he's a dead ringer.
FrancisUrquhart said:Wow Labour need to pull their man from Sky, he is making a twit of himself.
0 -
Spot on. We have to move past this ugliness.Plato said:I sincerely hope that whomever becomes Labour leader - they drop the inverted snobbery and Class War.
I never thought where someone went to school would be turned into a stick to beat them with in every breath in 2015.CopperSulphate said:
I've never met a Labour supporter or heard a Labour MP ever show any indication that they don't believe in the magic money tree.Patrick said:
Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?HYUFD said:Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis
You may as well try and teach a dog to speak Chinese.0 -
Plato said:
Welcome back, Marcus - and isn't it STUNNING?!
Well it's been a VERY long time coming, I have been active or standing in every election since 1992 (except this one!) and you get to the point of wondering whether your party will ever win again; even in 2010 it was so borderline and expected to be so difficult in Government that being the largest party felt like we were losers. This time it is victory, pure and simple; our opponents are totally vanquished. Conservatives are in full control of the Government at last.0 -
I can't see Clegg staying in the HoC for long. A by-election is likely within 18 months IMO.0
-
I think I owe you money.isam said:
Jesus this is £160 quid isn't it? Did I forget about a big bet we had?Scrapheap_as_was said:what a night.
time for work.
i'll let the dust settle before sorting logistics re isam and payment process - no idea how that works!
You and eagles are buddies if you want to cut out the middle man take it out of what he owes me ?0 -
worth sending Dave to have pint in the Romsey Working Mens' Conservative Association to make sure he remembers the tory party needs to represent working class people if it is to succeedTCPoliticalBetting said:
True. Just look At Romsey. It has a 17,000 majority!Richard_Nabavi said:
One thing which I believe is very significant is that many of the Con gains from the LibDems look very hard to reverse - they'll become safe Con seats now that the thread has been broken.Marcus01 said:Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.
0 -
A very good point. We are back to the Liberals in the 50s and 60s. Does the Democrat bit serve any purpose anymore?Richard_Nabavi said:
Welcome back, Marcus! You were unlucky in timing, but it's come right now.Marcus01 said:Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.
One thing which I believe is very significant is that many of the Con gains from the LibDems look very hard to reverse - they'll become safe Con seats now that the thread has been broken.
0 -
You'll find a lot of that was coming from inside the Conservative Party, especially those MPs convinced, rightly or wrongly, that the only reason they'd not got a seat in the Cabinet was because they were not part of David Cameron's "set".Plato said:I sincerely hope that whomever becomes Labour leader - they drop the inverted snobbery and Class War.
I never thought where someone went to school would be turned into a stick to beat them with in every breath in 2015.CopperSulphate said:
I've never met a Labour supporter or heard a Labour MP ever show any indication that they don't believe in the magic money tree.Patrick said:
Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?HYUFD said:Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis
You may as well try and teach a dog to speak Chinese.0 -
Yes, an Old Etonian could never be Prime Minister in the 21st century.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Choosing a public school Leader is unfortunately something the Conservatives now have to avoid in future.Plato said:I sincerely hope that whomever becomes Labour leader - they drop the inverted snobbery and Class War.
I never thought where someone went to school would be turned into a stick to beat them with in every breath in 2015.CopperSulphate said:
I've never met a Labour supporter or heard a Labour MP ever show any indication that they don't believe in the magic money tree.Patrick said:
Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?HYUFD said:Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis
You may as well try and teach a dog to speak Chinese.0 -
And the next James Bond will not be a woman.Floater said:Another reason to be cheerful... no Labour Islamophobia law.
Hell yeah!0 -
Perhaps they could just ask Lord Maurice Glassman - the man EdM elevated then dropped like a hot potato.
Stupidest move by any leader in decades re strategyantifrank said:If I were the next Labour leader, I'd be looking at how to combine Blue Labour themes with One Nation themes. My working title would be the Social Contract.
0 -
You could take the view that he's now an 8/1 shot, and so you're holding a bucket-load of value there.TheScreamingEagles said:
Whereas Alastair Carmichael is the enemy of PBers.antifrank said:One day I shall have to tot up whether John Bercow or Nick Clegg has made me more money by not leaving their jobs by given dates. I am sad to see Mr Clegg finally go: he's been a small goldmine.
1) He didn't quit the cabinet after the indyref as he said he would costing us money on the next out of the market
2) Which also made me lose a bet on there being a reshuffle before the GE
3) He was probably behind the leak of the Sturgeon memo causing some PBers to close out their SNP position at 42 seats.
If he had any decency, he'd become the next Lib Dem leader, because some of us have him at 40/10 -
LOL. that is a crackerwatford30 said:
Little fish in a big pond.malcolmg said:
Be nice to hear more of Eck , we will get him on box more often now as he knocks Westminster into shapeAlanbrooke said:
5 years of neutered rage ahoy !CarlottaVance said:
Is Eck drafting Osborne's budget?Alanbrooke said:scotslass said:Alanbrooke
56 out of 59. Get used to it. The NATS won huge and Salmond's back virtue of the people of Gordon. Ho Ho Ho.
how's that holding the balance of power going for you ?
Ed giving in to your demands ?
so no different than the last Parliment.0 -
Why. With Farron as a leader the LD's are a credible left wing replacement party instead of a protest vote...Speedy said:As for the LD, Farron is the probable winner, Lamb is tainted by his coalition association.
However there is no future for the LD, they let Clegg lead them to a huge wipeout thinking that LD incumbency and tactical voting will make it all ok.
The LD and Labour should start merger talks.0 -
Surely you can only play the MoE card for individual polls, and only for one poll in every twenty, and not at all when you are without exception erring in the same direction every single time?Casino_Royale said:
I have no idea what happened with the polls. Astonishing.antifrank said:
It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.Ishmael_X said:Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)
What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.
Is there not a case to be made that what happened was *just* at the extreme boundaries of the MoE of the final polls that almost all showed a tie?
0 -
Just about to message you on that.isam said:
Jesus this is £160 quid isn't it? Did I forget about a big bet we had?Scrapheap_as_was said:what a night.
time for work.
i'll let the dust settle before sorting logistics re isam and payment process - no idea how that works!
You and eagles are buddies if you want to cut out the middle man take it out of what he owes me ?0 -
Jarvis - As SO points out, he may fit the bill. I don't know him but seems, prima facie, to be human. No old stink attaches. Probably the one. Therefore Lasbour will choose another.HYUFD said:Patrick Why? Cameron is an old Etonian, Oxbridge PR man, Blair was a slick Public school educated lawyer, both succeeded state educated PMs. It is not where you come from that matters so much as what you say. I think that list would be a very good list and all of those figures could be a future Labour PM, moderate, telegenic and reasonable. Umunna Britain's first black PM, Cooper Labour's first woman PM, Burnham a northener, Jarvis ex army. Umunna and Jarvis were not even elected until 2010/2011
Umunna - me, me, me, god I'm beautiful. Have you noticed I'm black? My suits are sharper than yours. Tosser. Bye bye white van middle England. Dave's secret hope.
Cooper - Indelibly tainted with Balls' and Brown's stink. Sharp but shouty on TV. Not a warm likeable person. Old and stale.
Burnham - Mid Staffs. Professional northerner. Tosser. Idiot. Virgil from Thunderbirds doppelganger. Old and stale. Not a new idea or appreciation of why Labour failed so utterly in his head. Dave would be delighted.0 -
Next year all those things that made Cameron rise up, will drag him down.williamglenn said:
I can't see John Redwood launching a leadership bid this time, can you? Or Bill Cash being a permanent fixture on TV?Speedy said:
John Major's term will look like a picknick.HYUFD said:Speedy The EU referendum and constitutional matters related to the UK will certainly form a key part in the next few years
Devolution, the EU, the Economy will all make their impact strongly felt.
6 by-elections later and the Tories would be in a minority with Cameron facing not the Referendum party and Redwood, but UKIP and Boris.0 -
Harry, 56 at least you mean...........TGOHF said:
There will be at least one MP laughing at his "jokes". A. Salmond from Gordon.malcolmg said:
Be nice to hear more of Eck , we will get him on box more often now as he knocks Westminster into shapeAlanbrooke said:
5 years of neutered rage ahoy !CarlottaVance said:
Is Eck drafting Osborne's budget?Alanbrooke said:scotslass said:Alanbrooke
56 out of 59. Get used to it. The NATS won huge and Salmond's back virtue of the people of Gordon. Ho Ho Ho.
how's that holding the balance of power going for you ?
Ed giving in to your demands ?
so no different than the last Parliment.0 -
Did you do the decent thing, pour it away, rinse it out and replace with Highland Park 12yo?Sunil_Prasannan said:Celebrated the SNP win up in Scotland by buying a bottle of Irn-Bru on the way into work
0 -
While I don't think we should have so-called never-endums, I don't think any electorate can permanently settle a matter. If we vote to stay in this time, or to leave this time, it's completely fair for the general public to revisit the issue 15 years later and change it.AnneJGP said:
IMHO the reason the EU is a still-open wound to the Conservatives is that the then PM (Conservative Edward Heath) mis-sold it to the electorate. We were told it was a trading bloc only, with no political ambitions. That was, quite simply, not true. For this reason it seems to me only right & proper that a fresh referendum should be held. There is every reason to expect that, win or lose, the decision of the electorate will settle the matter. Maybe not for UKIP-inclined people, but for all reasonable people, yes.Cyclefree said:
3. I very much hope those bone-headed EU-obsessed Tories don't ruin things over the next few years. We do not need a rerun of 1992-1997 thank you very much.0
![[Deleted User]](https://wd.vanillicon.com/d2ea526b1b06ed109333f390c7ae956b_100.png)
