Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so now we turn to leader resignations triggering off ma

13468911

Comments

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Tories need to get rid of Mr Green as their main media man...he is so slimey. They need to get themselves a straight talking no nonsense person to do the media rounds.

    It is a shame Boris doesn't do detail, because otherwise he'd be ideal with his high profile, experience of press and television, and popularity with the grass roots. It would also make him less of a leadership rival to Osborne and May when Cameron retires in 2017, since he'd have no Cabinet experience.

    Hmm. Has Cameron seen off Miliband, Clegg, Farage AND Boris, all in the same day?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    She'd be great.
    watford30 said:

    will Bercow make it 4? He may jump if he thinks he's about to be pushed.

    If he does then he Tories should press for a mainstream fair-minded honest broker of a labour MP for the job. We certainly need someone who is willing to do an honest job of reforming the job of Speaker.
    Kate Hoey?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm still in a daze over how Labour managed to lose seats like Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Derby North, Bolton West, Telford to the Conservatives.

    The Gower was one I pointed out early in the campaign. Consistently said the Tories would do surprisingly well in Wales.
    There was a swing of 1% to the Tories in Wales. Cardiff North confounded most expectations.
    Plaid did woefully given the advantages they had (all others bar UKIP being in government).
    They failed to knock out Labour in Ynys Mon by 229 votes.
    But they fell a long way short in Ceredigion. Nobody else seemed to have much trouble dispatching the Lib Dems!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Impressive in terms of activists turnout but labour ground game is maybe a bit clueless in reading well the mood on the street.I don't want to blame them, actually, I've lots of sympathy towards them as I suppose they are very disappointed today.
    I get the impression they really weren't expecting such poor results in England and Wales.

    On election day they were still out in force in seats they lost by big margins (for ex Battarsea or Vale of Glamorgan), while neighbouring seats were lost by small majorities.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    One day I shall have to tot up whether John Bercow or Nick Clegg has made me more money by not leaving their jobs by given dates. I am sad to see Mr Clegg finally go: he's been a small goldmine.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    One of my colleagues is friends with Marcus Fysh, the new MP for Yeovil. Apparently, the win was entirely unexpected to him.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm still in a daze over how Labour managed to lose seats like Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Derby North, Bolton West, Telford to the Conservatives.

    The Gower was one I pointed out early in the campaign. Consistently said the Tories would do surprisingly well in Wales.
    There was a swing of 1% to the Tories in Wales. Cardiff North confounded most expectations.
    Plaid did woefully given the advantages they had (all others bar UKIP being in government).
    They failed to knock out Labour in Ynys Mon by 229 votes.
    But they fell a long way short in Ceredigion. Nobody else seemed to have much trouble dispatching the Lib Dems!
    I think they helped to provide the LDs with their biggest majority in that seat. Well done to Harry Hayfield of this parish who is a LD campaigner in Ceredigion.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    antifrank said:

    calum said:

    The tactical voting crowed are in a bit of a meltdown, hopefully Curtis et al will get to the bottom of what impact, if any, their efforts had. They're already gearing up for Holyrood 2016, they'll need a 3 dimensional model for this instead of a wheel:

    https://twitter.com/SNPOut

    The reason that tactical voting didn't have much impact can be summed up very succinctly: SNP 50%. That's hard for tactical voting to overcome.
    It's more than just scotland, tactical voting didn't exist anywhere apart from UKIP areas against UKIP.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm still in a daze over how Labour managed to lose seats like Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Derby North, Bolton West, Telford to the Conservatives.

    The Gower was one I pointed out early in the campaign. Consistently said the Tories would do surprisingly well in Wales.
    There was a swing of 1% to the Tories in Wales. Cardiff North confounded most expectations.
    Plaid did woefully given the advantages they had (all others bar UKIP being in government).
    They failed to knock out Labour in Ynys Mon by 229 votes.
    But they fell a long way short in Ceredigion. Nobody else seemed to have much trouble dispatching the Lib Dems!
    Backing PC is Ceredigion was my only bet in Wales. :-(
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    MikeL said:

    What a mess Ed made for Lab.

    David Miliband would undoubtedly have done much better. Not saying he would have won but Cameron would never have got a majority against David Miliband.

    I know many on here don't rate him but, critically, he is a credible PM.


    And a myth is borne..! :lol:
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    watford30

    In your dreams. Salmond was a big fish in the HoC when part oif a group of three/six facing Tory/Labour majorities of 100+.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm still in a daze over how Labour managed to lose seats like Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Derby North, Bolton West, Telford to the Conservatives.

    The Gower was one I pointed out early in the campaign. Consistently said the Tories would do surprisingly well in Wales.
    There was a swing of 1% to the Tories in Wales. Cardiff North confounded most expectations.
    Plaid did woefully given the advantages they had (all others bar UKIP being in government).
    They failed to knock out Labour in Ynys Mon by 229 votes.
    Extremely annoying. I had tipped and backed that.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    If they are giving it to Labour, Lindsay Hoyle is probably the favourite

    will Bercow make it 4? He may jump if he thinks he's about to be pushed.

    If he does then he Tories should press for a mainstream fair-minded honest broker of a labour MP for the job. We certainly need someone who is willing to do an honest job of reforming the job of Speaker.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Going to be interesting to see how PMQs are reconfigured. Who gets to ask questions every week? In what order?

    Simple solution is a straight swap of opposition LD and SNP surely.

    IE SNP gets two questions a week. LD I think get 1 a fortnight. For leaders obviously.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Patrick said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis

    Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?
    Depends if they want to go left to take back votes from UKIP or right to take on the Tories. (This assumes that they don't want more of the same!)
    Hard to see somebody who was part of the 2010 intake winning so who ever it is will probably have some ties to Miliband or Brown.
  • Marcus01Marcus01 Posts: 42
    Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 758
    It's a shame Gummo Miliband didn't go into politics.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Patrick said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis

    Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?
    I've never met a Labour supporter or heard a Labour MP ever show any indication that they don't believe in the magic money tree.

    You may as well try and teach a dog to speak Chinese.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Andrew said:

    Another nice little positive: the BNP have disappeared entirely. Just 1667 votes nationally, compared to well over half a million last time.

    Gone home to UKIP no doubt. If we thought we'd seen appalling standards from UKIPpers since 2010 what will they be like now??

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2015
    antifrank said:

    One day I shall have to tot up whether John Bercow or Nick Clegg has made me more money by not leaving their jobs by given dates. I am sad to see Mr Clegg finally go: he's been a small goldmine.

    Yes, I totted up my 'Won't be toast before the GE' bets the other day and they were a fine crop, featuring not only the aforesaid Mr Clegg, but also Mrs May as Home Sec, and Messrs Osborne as Chancellor, Bercow as Speaker, and Miliband as Labour leader. I think my only loser was William Hague as Foreign Sec.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    What moved the Tory total from 327 to 328?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    Patrick Why? Cameron is an old Etonian, Oxbridge PR man, Blair was a slick Public school educated lawyer, both succeeded state educated PMs. It is not where you come from that matters so much as what you say. I think that list would be a very good list and all of those figures could be a future Labour PM, moderate, telegenic and reasonable. Umunna Britain's first black PM, Cooper Labour's first woman PM, Burnham a northener, Jarvis ex army. Umunna and Jarvis were not even elected until 2010/2011
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ishmael_X said:

    Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)

    Would break Marr's heart to admit it was the Cons running the country well.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Patrick said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis

    Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?

    Comprehensive-educated Dan Jarvis is not from Islington, represents Barnsley and certainly had a life before he became an MP:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Jarvis

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015

    What moved the Tory total from 327 to 328?

    Kenilworth & Southam.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000767
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy He prmised to stick to his pledge for a fair deal for England too

    Now the moaning for what that promise actually is will start.
    Cameron will have a year of a honeymoon, and then the knifes will come out like Major after 1992.
    But who cares (even if you are right).
    We are where we are now and whatever it means to be where that is must be faced. Real and political life goes on from where we are. The problems will be there and we have to live with getting through them. Its no use avoiding issues. I believe that is called leadership.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Welcome back, Marcus - and isn't it STUNNING?!
    Marcus01 said:

    Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Shapps knows the law on Boundary changes!

    Hardly anyone else does!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
    edited May 2015

    I think we can now consign the anti-Tory party to history in England and Wales.

    This really has been a game-changing election in so many ways. Almost all the old certainties have been laid to waste.

    England has and always will be a small-c consverative country. Blair understood that, that why New labour was needed.
    It's a tiny majority, there are still 'awkward squad' tories. No LibDem involvement to restrain them this time.
    Opposition parties to get new leaders and a new start (except UKIP where Farage is copying his idol Putin).
    Assuming that Scotland goes its own way at some point, the Conservative majority in EWNI is forecast to be 70, in England alone 105.

    We have seen the unexpected rebirth of Tory England.
    "For we are the people of England, that never have spoken yet."

    Well, they spoke last night.

    Polly plugging for Rachel Reeves to succeed Ed. Lol!

    Rachel Reeves is just Ed in a fright wig. Exactly not what Labour need.

    Just my friendly advice. We told you Ed was a dud. You might want to consult more widely on what constitutes a decent leader.

    They need to skip a generation - to people like Stella Creasey or Liz Kendall. If they have any sense.

  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,097
    Cyclefree said:


    3. I very much hope those bone-headed EU-obsessed Tories don't ruin things over the next few years. We do not need a rerun of 1992-1997 thank you very much.

    IMHO the reason the EU is a still-open wound to the Conservatives is that the then PM (Conservative Edward Heath) mis-sold it to the electorate. We were told it was a trading bloc only, with no political ambitions. That was, quite simply, not true. For this reason it seems to me only right & proper that a fresh referendum should be held. There is every reason to expect that, win or lose, the decision of the electorate will settle the matter. Maybe not for UKIP-inclined people, but for all reasonable people, yes.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Ishmael_X said:

    Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)

    It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.

    What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Patrick said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis

    Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?
    I've never met a Labour supporter or heard a Labour MP ever show any indication that they don't believe in the magic money tree.

    You may as well try and teach a dog to speak Chinese.
    You always leave George Osborne off your list of magic money tree believers. Now there is no election to win, perhaps it is time for a closer look at the mountain of debt he has racked up.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    What moved the Tory total from 327 to 328?

    Simon Danczuk defection.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Wow Labour need to pull their man from Sky, he is making a twit of himself.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Can we entice Sean Fear back into the fold?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Monkeys said:

    It's a shame Gummo Miliband didn't go into politics.

    Time to call on the third Miliband brother, Steve.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Marcus01 said:

    Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.

    Welcome back, Marcus! You were unlucky in timing, but it's come right now.

    One thing which I believe is very significant is that many of the Con gains from the LibDems look very hard to reverse - they'll become safe Con seats now that the thread has been broken.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    ooh my Liz Kendall lay has been matched on Betfair.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2015
    I don't know that I buy the 'electoral system is bust' thing completely, I think it works well for the voter 'at the point of use' to borrow a phrase

    Complicated voting systems will confuse the average voter who just wants to put an x by the name of his or her preferred candidate

    I'd change the number of constituencies to 600 and allocate the other 50 seats by each 2% of votes, so the voters do exactly the same job, they are represented by their local mp, but if there is a large proportion of the country that is underrepresented, that would be remedied
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    AndyJS said:

    What moved the Tory total from 327 to 328?

    Kenilworth & Southam.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000767
    I'm sitting just two miles from Kenilworth :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Tories hold Hexham:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000746

    Con vote up 9.5%. Maj 12,031.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Saltire said:

    Patrick said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis

    Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?
    Depends if they want to go left to take back votes from UKIP or right to take on the Tories. (This assumes that they don't want more of the same!)
    Hard to see somebody who was part of the 2010 intake winning so who ever it is will probably have some ties to Miliband or Brown.
    They need an northern working class social conservative and eurosceptic to take those massive Labour to UKIP voters back.

    Compouter2 will get angry, but Simon Danczuck fits that profile.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I sincerely hope that whomever becomes Labour leader - they drop the inverted snobbery and Class War.

    I never thought where someone went to school would be turned into a stick to beat them with in every breath in 2015.

    Patrick said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis

    Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?
    I've never met a Labour supporter or heard a Labour MP ever show any indication that they don't believe in the magic money tree.

    You may as well try and teach a dog to speak Chinese.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    May 8th = VE Day

    Victory over Ed Day! :lol:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm still in a daze over how Labour managed to lose seats like Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Derby North, Bolton West, Telford to the Conservatives.

    The Gower was one I pointed out early in the campaign. Consistently said the Tories would do surprisingly well in Wales.
    There was a swing of 1% to the Tories in Wales. Cardiff North confounded most expectations.
    Plaid did woefully given the advantages they had (all others bar UKIP being in government).
    They failed to knock out Labour in Ynys Mon by 229 votes.
    Extremely annoying. I had tipped and backed that.
    A good value tip.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    antifrank said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)

    It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.

    What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.
    I have no idea what happened with the polls. Astonishing.

    Is there not a case to be made that what happened was *just* at the extreme boundaries of the MoE of the final polls that almost all showed a tie?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    So - who is annoyed that they didn't back their winners for more and losers for less :D ?

    Whoever is watching my bank account will be a happy bunny today.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    edited May 2015

    Then the people left can start to have a proper debate about what it means to be a centre left party in an age of internationalisation, globalisation and limited resources. Look at aspiration and encourage it, understand how businesses - SMEs especially - function and embrace them as the engines of our economy, but frame arguments that are based on the idea that we all do best when the state acts as a guarantor of minimum standards of living and maximum equality of opportunity. Labour needs to keep its commitment to the state, but it needs to rethink what that state can and should be. At the root of everything is the idea of solidarity: that we are better off as individuals and as family units when we work together and look after each other, that is modern social democracy. No easy slogans, no NHS worship, no Tories this and Tories that, concede past errors - it's time to be grown-up, to accept that the world has moved on and to develop a vision that reflects this. Then sell it, from door to door, from street to street, day in and day out. This is the only way back.

    Or they could save time and join the Conservative party.

    You may not have noticed but they're on this ground. No room for Labour here.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    what a night.

    time for work.

    i'll let the dust settle before sorting logistics re isam and payment process - no idea how that works!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Speedy The EU referendum and constitutional matters related to the UK will certainly form a key part in the next few years
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    edited May 2015
    antifrank said:

    One day I shall have to tot up whether John Bercow or Nick Clegg has made me more money by not leaving their jobs by given dates. I am sad to see Mr Clegg finally go: he's been a small goldmine.

    Whereas Alastair Carmichael is the enemy of PBers.

    1) He didn't quit the cabinet after the indyref as he said he would costing us money on the next out of the market

    2) Which also made me lose a bet on there being a reshuffle before the GE

    3) He was probably behind the leak of the Sturgeon memo causing some PBers to close out their SNP position at 42 seats.

    If he had any decency, he'd become the next Lib Dem leader, because some of us have him at 40/1
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If I were the next Labour leader, I'd be looking at how to combine Blue Labour themes with One Nation themes. My working title would be the Social Contract.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    antifrank said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)

    It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.

    What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.
    I have no idea what happened with the polls. Astonishing.

    Is there not a case to be made that what happened was *just* at the extreme boundaries of the MoE of the final polls that almost all showed a tie?
    I think the polls are useless.

    The common theme uniting the SNP and Tories was decent leader ratings.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited May 2015

    Andrew said:

    Another nice little positive: the BNP have disappeared entirely. Just 1667 votes nationally, compared to well over half a million last time.

    Gone home to UKIP no doubt. If we thought we'd seen appalling standards from UKIPpers since 2010 what will they be like now??

    You should thank UKIP for giving people who vehemently want immigration controlled a reputable party to vote for.

    And before you question 'reputable', I mean a party that at least professes to be non-racist, has a number of activists from ethnic minority backgrounds, and published during this campaign a non-extreme, grown-up manifesto (whatever you think of the policies therein).

  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420

    Today's arbitrary prediction:

    "President of the Board of Trade" title to be separated from BIS, and to be given to BoJo.

    Very Heseltine: Hope he looks into the pension-scheme that Finmeccanica have afforded some Labour hoon of a defence minister.... :(
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy The EU referendum and constitutional matters related to the UK will certainly form a key part in the next few years

    John Major's term will look like a picknick.
  • Marcus01 said:

    Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.

    One thing which I believe is very significant is that many of the Con gains from the LibDems look very hard to reverse - they'll become safe Con seats now that the thread has been broken.
    True. Just look At Romsey. It has a 17,000 majority!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Cyclefree said:

    I think we can now consign the anti-Tory party to history in England and Wales.

    This really has been a game-changing election in so many ways. Almost all the old certainties have been laid to waste.

    England has and always will be a small-c consverative country. Blair understood that, that why New labour was needed.
    It's a tiny majority, there are still 'awkward squad' tories. No LibDem involvement to restrain them this time.
    Opposition parties to get new leaders and a new start (except UKIP where Farage is copying his idol Putin).
    Assuming that Scotland goes its own way at some point, the Conservative majority in EWNI is forecast to be 70, in England alone 105.

    We have seen the unexpected rebirth of Tory England.

    Polly plugging for Rachel Reeves to succeed Ed. Lol!

    Rachel Reeves is just Ed in a fright wig. Exactly not what Labour need.

    Just my friendly advice. We told you Ed was a dud. You might want to consult more widely on what constitutes a decent leader.

    They need to skip a generation - to people like Stella Creasey or Liz Kendall. If they have any sense.

    Liz Kendall has energy and ambition, putting in the campaign miles. She is a fresh face and dry on economics, strong on health issues, knows the unions, and is home counties rather than London. Most of all she is an excellent communicator with natural emotional intelligence.

    There would also be the bizarre prospect of Greg Davies as first consort!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Exactly - and that's why Cameron will definitely hold a referendum as scheduled.

    It needs knocking on the head as an issue for another generation.
    AnneJGP said:

    Cyclefree said:


    3. I very much hope those bone-headed EU-obsessed Tories don't ruin things over the next few years. We do not need a rerun of 1992-1997 thank you very much.

    IMHO the reason the EU is a still-open wound to the Conservatives is that the then PM (Conservative Edward Heath) mis-sold it to the electorate. We were told it was a trading bloc only, with no political ambitions. That was, quite simply, not true. For this reason it seems to me only right & proper that a fresh referendum should be held. There is every reason to expect that, win or lose, the decision of the electorate will settle the matter. Maybe not for UKIP-inclined people, but for all reasonable people, yes.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    isam said:

    I don't know that I buy the 'electoral system is bust' thing completely, I think it works well for the voter 'at the point of use' to borrow a phrase

    Complicated voting systems will confuse the average voter who just wants to put an x by the name of his or her preferred candidate

    I'd change the number of constituencies to 600 and allocate the other 50 seats by each 2% of votes, so the voters do exactly the same job, they are represented by their local mp, but if there is a large proportion of the country that is underrepresented, that would be remedied


    You know it was the LibDems who used to complain about the unfairness of FPTP?

    I guess UKIP now take up the protest-party mantle.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Boris can't take a cabinet/ministerial role until next May.

    If he does, it would trigger a new Mayoral election.

    So he will serve out his full term
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    50% voted either Tory or UKIP. That includes Scotland.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Speedy said:

    Patrick said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis

    Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?
    Well looking at the result, Labour needs a working class northerman, since UKIP took more votes from Labour than the Tories.
    Just remember that there were far more labour votes to pinch than tory ones.
  • antifrank said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)

    It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.

    What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.
    antifrank said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)

    It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.

    What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.
    What is truly baffling, is that Labour didn't scotch it immediately.
  • Plato said:

    I sincerely hope that whomever becomes Labour leader - they drop the inverted snobbery and Class War.

    I never thought where someone went to school would be turned into a stick to beat them with in every breath in 2015.

    Patrick said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis

    Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?
    I've never met a Labour supporter or heard a Labour MP ever show any indication that they don't believe in the magic money tree.

    You may as well try and teach a dog to speak Chinese.
    Choosing a public school Leader is unfortunately something the Conservatives now have to avoid in future.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I keep thinking it's Lord Levy - he's a dead ringer.

    Wow Labour need to pull their man from Sky, he is making a twit of himself.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Anyone else got the bad feeling, now that Galloway has been turfed out in Bradford, that he's going to stand as London Mayor?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)

    It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.

    What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.
    I have no idea what happened with the polls. Astonishing.

    Is there not a case to be made that what happened was *just* at the extreme boundaries of the MoE of the final polls that almost all showed a tie?
    I made a very similar point yesterday about how small polling errors akin to those we saw in the Scottish referendum could lead to an overall majority either way. But I think the pollsters need to start from deep humility and a recognition that this has been a catastrophic election for them.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Marcus01 said:

    Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.

    I am saddened to hear you sound so bitter Marcus.

    This "pointless political party" help to secure the nations future in 2010 and formed an integral part of one of the best post war governments the country has enjoyed.

    A little grace might have been more appropriate Marcus. Sadly you couldn't manage it.

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Cameron using "these islands" in his speech - nice nod to Nicola :D
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)

    It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.

    What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.
    I have no idea what happened with the polls. Astonishing.

    Is there not a case to be made that what happened was *just* at the extreme boundaries of the MoE of the final polls that almost all showed a tie?
    I think the polls are useless.

    The common theme uniting the SNP and Tories was decent leader ratings.
    I was saying for months the leader and competence ratings would tell. Mike Smithson repeatedly callled me a partisan Tory.

    But, by the end, even I was doubting it (and wobbled all the way down to 285 seats) because the polls simply didn't move as I expected them to do to match that, and actually moved *away* from the Tories in the final 36 hours.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy The EU referendum and constitutional matters related to the UK will certainly form a key part in the next few years

    John Major's term will look like a picknick.
    I can't see John Redwood launching a leadership bid this time, can you? Or Bill Cash being a permanent fixture on TV?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Marcus01 said:

    Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.

    One thing which I believe is very significant is that many of the Con gains from the LibDems look very hard to reverse - they'll become safe Con seats now that the thread has been broken.
    True. Just look At Romsey. It has a 17,000 majority!
    Winchester too, and Eastleigh pretty safe looking. In many ways this is a reversal to pre 97 times.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Speedy said:

    Saltire said:

    Patrick said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis

    Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?
    Depends if they want to go left to take back votes from UKIP or right to take on the Tories. (This assumes that they don't want more of the same!)
    Hard to see somebody who was part of the 2010 intake winning so who ever it is will probably have some ties to Miliband or Brown.
    They need an northern working class social conservative and eurosceptic to take those massive Labour to UKIP voters back.

    Compouter2 will get angry, but Simon Danczuck fits that profile.
    I don't he's smart enough for the job, I'm afraid to say.

    *thinks about George W. Bush*
    *thinks about Alan Johnson*

    Actually, ignore that.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    what a night.

    time for work.

    i'll let the dust settle before sorting logistics re isam and payment process - no idea how that works!

    Jesus this is £160 quid isn't it? Did I forget about a big bet we had?

    You and eagles are buddies if you want to cut out the middle man take it out of what he owes me ?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Another reason to be cheerful... no Labour Islamophobia law.

    Hell yeah!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Plato said:

    I keep thinking it's Lord Levy - he's a dead ringer.

    Wow Labour need to pull their man from Sky, he is making a twit of himself.

    It is Lord Levy
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Plato said:

    I sincerely hope that whomever becomes Labour leader - they drop the inverted snobbery and Class War.

    I never thought where someone went to school would be turned into a stick to beat them with in every breath in 2015.

    Patrick said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis

    Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?
    I've never met a Labour supporter or heard a Labour MP ever show any indication that they don't believe in the magic money tree.

    You may as well try and teach a dog to speak Chinese.
    Spot on. We have to move past this ugliness.
  • Marcus01Marcus01 Posts: 42
    Plato said:

    Welcome back, Marcus - and isn't it STUNNING?!

    Well it's been a VERY long time coming, I have been active or standing in every election since 1992 (except this one!) and you get to the point of wondering whether your party will ever win again; even in 2010 it was so borderline and expected to be so difficult in Government that being the largest party felt like we were losers. This time it is victory, pure and simple; our opponents are totally vanquished. Conservatives are in full control of the Government at last.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I can't see Clegg staying in the HoC for long. A by-election is likely within 18 months IMO.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    what a night.

    time for work.

    i'll let the dust settle before sorting logistics re isam and payment process - no idea how that works!

    Jesus this is £160 quid isn't it? Did I forget about a big bet we had?

    You and eagles are buddies if you want to cut out the middle man take it out of what he owes me ?
    I think I owe you money.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    AndyJS said:

    I can't see Clegg staying in the HoC for long. A by-election is likely within 18 months IMO.

    Con Gain Hallam imo.
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393

    Marcus01 said:

    Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.

    One thing which I believe is very significant is that many of the Con gains from the LibDems look very hard to reverse - they'll become safe Con seats now that the thread has been broken.
    True. Just look At Romsey. It has a 17,000 majority!
    worth sending Dave to have pint in the Romsey Working Mens' Conservative Association to make sure he remembers the tory party needs to represent working class people if it is to succeed
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Marcus01 said:

    Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.

    Welcome back, Marcus! You were unlucky in timing, but it's come right now.

    One thing which I believe is very significant is that many of the Con gains from the LibDems look very hard to reverse - they'll become safe Con seats now that the thread has been broken.

    A very good point. We are back to the Liberals in the 50s and 60s. Does the Democrat bit serve any purpose anymore?

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Plato said:

    I sincerely hope that whomever becomes Labour leader - they drop the inverted snobbery and Class War.

    I never thought where someone went to school would be turned into a stick to beat them with in every breath in 2015.

    Patrick said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis

    Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?
    I've never met a Labour supporter or heard a Labour MP ever show any indication that they don't believe in the magic money tree.

    You may as well try and teach a dog to speak Chinese.
    You'll find a lot of that was coming from inside the Conservative Party, especially those MPs convinced, rightly or wrongly, that the only reason they'd not got a seat in the Cabinet was because they were not part of David Cameron's "set".
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Plato said:

    I sincerely hope that whomever becomes Labour leader - they drop the inverted snobbery and Class War.

    I never thought where someone went to school would be turned into a stick to beat them with in every breath in 2015.

    Patrick said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis

    Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?
    I've never met a Labour supporter or heard a Labour MP ever show any indication that they don't believe in the magic money tree.

    You may as well try and teach a dog to speak Chinese.
    Choosing a public school Leader is unfortunately something the Conservatives now have to avoid in future.
    Yes, an Old Etonian could never be Prime Minister in the 21st century.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Floater said:

    Another reason to be cheerful... no Labour Islamophobia law.

    Hell yeah!

    And the next James Bond will not be a woman.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Perhaps they could just ask Lord Maurice Glassman - the man EdM elevated then dropped like a hot potato.

    Stupidest move by any leader in decades re strategy
    antifrank said:

    If I were the next Labour leader, I'd be looking at how to combine Blue Labour themes with One Nation themes. My working title would be the Social Contract.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    antifrank said:

    One day I shall have to tot up whether John Bercow or Nick Clegg has made me more money by not leaving their jobs by given dates. I am sad to see Mr Clegg finally go: he's been a small goldmine.

    Whereas Alastair Carmichael is the enemy of PBers.

    1) He didn't quit the cabinet after the indyref as he said he would costing us money on the next out of the market

    2) Which also made me lose a bet on there being a reshuffle before the GE

    3) He was probably behind the leak of the Sturgeon memo causing some PBers to close out their SNP position at 42 seats.

    If he had any decency, he'd become the next Lib Dem leader, because some of us have him at 40/1
    You could take the view that he's now an 8/1 shot, and so you're holding a bucket-load of value there.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509
    watford30 said:

    malcolmg said:

    scotslass said:

    Alanbrooke

    56 out of 59. Get used to it. The NATS won huge and Salmond's back virtue of the people of Gordon. Ho Ho Ho.


    how's that holding the balance of power going for you ?

    Ed giving in to your demands ?
    Is Eck drafting Osborne's budget?
    5 years of neutered rage ahoy !

    so no different than the last Parliment.
    Be nice to hear more of Eck , we will get him on box more often now as he knocks Westminster into shape
    Little fish in a big pond.
    LOL. that is a cracker
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    Speedy said:

    As for the LD, Farron is the probable winner, Lamb is tainted by his coalition association.
    However there is no future for the LD, they let Clegg lead them to a huge wipeout thinking that LD incumbency and tactical voting will make it all ok.

    The LD and Labour should start merger talks.

    Why. With Farron as a leader the LD's are a credible left wing replacement party instead of a protest vote...
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    antifrank said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)

    It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.

    What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.
    I have no idea what happened with the polls. Astonishing.

    Is there not a case to be made that what happened was *just* at the extreme boundaries of the MoE of the final polls that almost all showed a tie?
    Surely you can only play the MoE card for individual polls, and only for one poll in every twenty, and not at all when you are without exception erring in the same direction every single time?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    isam said:

    what a night.

    time for work.

    i'll let the dust settle before sorting logistics re isam and payment process - no idea how that works!

    Jesus this is £160 quid isn't it? Did I forget about a big bet we had?

    You and eagles are buddies if you want to cut out the middle man take it out of what he owes me ?
    Just about to message you on that.
  • HYUFD said:

    Patrick Why? Cameron is an old Etonian, Oxbridge PR man, Blair was a slick Public school educated lawyer, both succeeded state educated PMs. It is not where you come from that matters so much as what you say. I think that list would be a very good list and all of those figures could be a future Labour PM, moderate, telegenic and reasonable. Umunna Britain's first black PM, Cooper Labour's first woman PM, Burnham a northener, Jarvis ex army. Umunna and Jarvis were not even elected until 2010/2011

    Jarvis - As SO points out, he may fit the bill. I don't know him but seems, prima facie, to be human. No old stink attaches. Probably the one. Therefore Lasbour will choose another.
    Umunna - me, me, me, god I'm beautiful. Have you noticed I'm black? My suits are sharper than yours. Tosser. Bye bye white van middle England. Dave's secret hope.
    Cooper - Indelibly tainted with Balls' and Brown's stink. Sharp but shouty on TV. Not a warm likeable person. Old and stale.
    Burnham - Mid Staffs. Professional northerner. Tosser. Idiot. Virgil from Thunderbirds doppelganger. Old and stale. Not a new idea or appreciation of why Labour failed so utterly in his head. Dave would be delighted.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy The EU referendum and constitutional matters related to the UK will certainly form a key part in the next few years

    John Major's term will look like a picknick.
    I can't see John Redwood launching a leadership bid this time, can you? Or Bill Cash being a permanent fixture on TV?
    Next year all those things that made Cameron rise up, will drag him down.
    Devolution, the EU, the Economy will all make their impact strongly felt.

    6 by-elections later and the Tories would be in a minority with Cameron facing not the Referendum party and Redwood, but UKIP and Boris.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509
    TGOHF said:

    malcolmg said:

    scotslass said:

    Alanbrooke

    56 out of 59. Get used to it. The NATS won huge and Salmond's back virtue of the people of Gordon. Ho Ho Ho.


    how's that holding the balance of power going for you ?

    Ed giving in to your demands ?
    Is Eck drafting Osborne's budget?
    5 years of neutered rage ahoy !

    so no different than the last Parliment.
    Be nice to hear more of Eck , we will get him on box more often now as he knocks Westminster into shape
    There will be at least one MP laughing at his "jokes". A. Salmond from Gordon.
    Harry, 56 at least you mean...........
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395

    Celebrated the SNP win up in Scotland by buying a bottle of Irn-Bru on the way into work :)

    Did you do the decent thing, pour it away, rinse it out and replace with Highland Park 12yo?

  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    AnneJGP said:

    Cyclefree said:


    3. I very much hope those bone-headed EU-obsessed Tories don't ruin things over the next few years. We do not need a rerun of 1992-1997 thank you very much.

    IMHO the reason the EU is a still-open wound to the Conservatives is that the then PM (Conservative Edward Heath) mis-sold it to the electorate. We were told it was a trading bloc only, with no political ambitions. That was, quite simply, not true. For this reason it seems to me only right & proper that a fresh referendum should be held. There is every reason to expect that, win or lose, the decision of the electorate will settle the matter. Maybe not for UKIP-inclined people, but for all reasonable people, yes.
    While I don't think we should have so-called never-endums, I don't think any electorate can permanently settle a matter. If we vote to stay in this time, or to leave this time, it's completely fair for the general public to revisit the issue 15 years later and change it.
This discussion has been closed.