If the Conservatives get about 63,000 more votes than Labour in the 4 remaining seats then they will have got 2 million more votes than them nationwide, unlikely but they won't be far off.
A decent farewell from Ed, but also one that showed why he was never a very good choice to lead. His lack of self awareness is startling.
It is now time for some major introspection and soul-searching. Sadly, I really don't think that parts of the party are capable of that. Whatever the short term hit it would be best if Len, Unite and other Jurassic unions were to leave and form a Real Labour party or something like that. Then the people left can start to have a proper debate about what it means to be a centre left party in an age of internationalisation, globalisation and limited resources. Look at aspiration and encourage it, understand how businesses - SMEs especially - function and embrace them as the engines of our economy, but frame arguments that are based on the idea that we all do best when the state acts as a guarantor of minimum standards of living and maximum equality of opportunity. Labour needs to keep its commitment to the state, but it needs to rethink what that state can and should be. At the root of everything is the idea of solidarity: that we are better off as individuals and as family units when we work together and look after each other, that is modern social democracy. No easy slogans, no NHS worship, no Tories this and Tories that, concede past errors - it's time to be grown-up, to accept that the world has moved on and to develop a vision that reflects this. Then sell it, from door to door, from street to street, day in and day out. This is the only way back.
They also need to look beyond London where most of the membership is and have a real close look at the country they live in. The lack of self-awareness among Labour members is staggering. There is a world beyond twitter - they just don't realise it.
If I may in some successive posts I'll try and rationalize these momentous events
ARSE & the "JackW Dozen"
From the moment Ed was elected as LotO it was patently clear that EWNBPM was the order of the day. Ed never had the look, almost literally, of a Prime Minister in waiting and the voters will never elect an individual who cannot appear to command the duties of the Queen's First Minister.
The economic, social and demographic factors fell into place in my ARSE with ease. Importantly unemployment and growth both fell within a whisker of my projections as did most of the other element central to the forecast.
PBers will recall I repeatedly advised that my ARSE was not a nowcast but forecast for 7th May but clearly as the day loomed the polls would play a more important part. Despite my ARSE filter allowing for shy Tories and differential turnout that regularly topped the Conservatives above 300 the failure of the polls, even ICM, notched down the blue seats and overestimated the yellow peril. Essentially the ARSE filter required another turn.
The same is true in Scotland where my ARSE expected a higher differential turnout for the SNP but clearly by not enough.
In late 2013 I started, some said very unwisely, to choose 13 difficult seats that I believed would shape the contest and they certainly did.
Of those "JackW Dozen" 10 were hits but Nick Palmer, and losses in Cambridge (very unexpected) and Cornwall North (less so) bucked the trend.
So overall perhaps a B+ .... I hope adherents of the ARSE punted well, you really should have and now PBers for one final time may I express the view, much derided by many, that :
So, public polls consistently way wrong, private party polls for Lab and Con (ballpark) right. That's a bizarre contrast.
The parties will have something which the pollsters don't, namely a very good idea of how their postal votes are going - not by (illegally) peeking at them, but by the follow-up calls.
Here are my main thoughts on the results, if anyone is interested.
1) It's a fantastic result for the country. We now have a majority Conservative government that can keep on pushing on the issues that need to be sorted out: creating a strong economy, balancing the books, sorting out out relationship with the EU, improving our education system, reforming welfare and curbing immigration. Congratulations and thank you to all the people that made it happen: Cameron, Crosby and Osborne, and of course all those hard working fellow Tory activists around the country.
2) As a party, we can not be complacent. We only have the slimmest of majorities and we will face a lot of struggle passing bills over the next five years. We shouldn't let the sudden change in expectations overcome the big picture. We have not really increased our vote share, and the change in seats is mainly due to other parties failing: Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The underlying surges in actual votes have been the SNP and UKIP. SNP have likely topped out, but UKIP could still grow further. UKIP improvement and a Labour recovery could easily strip us of our majority over the coming years.
3) Populism on social and identity issues is a major force to be reckoned with, as the UKIP and SNP gains show. The most elitist party on such things - the Liberal Democrats - got decimated, and the second most elitist one - Labour - were also hammered. It now looks very wise for the Conservatives to keep their immigration pledge, to promise an EU referendum, and to support English votes for English laws. We managed to keep the UKIP tide at bay, but Labour's failure to do this cost them dearly. They need to seriously think about their positions on these three issues unless they want to crumble in the North as they have done in Scotland. Meanwhile the Conservatives must make sure they do not water down such policies or we will suffer the same fate.
4) London is now a completely different beast to the rest of the country. Labour have suffered dearly from most of their party activists being from the capital, and this completely skewed their sensibilities on what the country wanted. All politicians need to accept the simple reality that strong support among the chattering classes and ethnic minorities can not cope with falling out of touch with voters in the shires.
5) Our electoral system is completely bust. It can not be at all legitimate that the Greens, UKIP and the Liberal Democrats get a quarter of the vote but less than 2% of the seats between them. Meanwhile the SNP get more than 50 seats on under 5% of the vote. It will cause major public disillusionment if action is not taken here. Given the large support for PR, it is intellectually dishonest to pretend the AV referendum has anything do with this.
Cameron's secrets to a majority? 1. Not associated with any policies except a referendum (so he's not even responsible for that). Embodies whatever you like. Like, it seems the third-most important policy after devolution and Europe is now apprenticeships?!? 2. Scots Out of Government.
Also, I thought it would take a successful Scottish independence referendum to see what British politics would look like without Scotland. I guess that wasn't entirely the case.
Well Cameron has 5 very tough years ahead...how he get the Tories through a EU referendum (and there is no more ducking that) and also how to deal with Scotland vs England powers.
They need a minister for poverty. This would ban the term relative poverty which means absolutely nothing and emphasize absolute ( or actual) poverty, and also they would monitor and support food banks. This would prevent the trussell trust misrepresenting the figures. Would have a cross departmental brief to look at and address the issues of poverty which often need a multi party intervention.
For all the talk that it's a narrow majority of, what, 12 is it or 10 it would take a supreme effort to summon all the disparate opposition against the Conservatives. The practical working majority is probably nearer 30 or 40.
Mr Harman should arrange as a celebration of all her work for wimmin, one of his events where the chaps dance on one side of the room and the women on the other, separated by a rope.
For all the talk that it's a narrow majority of, what, 12 is it or 10 it would take a supreme effort to summon all the disparate opposition against the Conservatives. The practical working majority is probably nearer 30 or 40.
Yes, I think that's a very good point. Labour won't have enough MPs to ambush the government.
For all the talk that it's a narrow majority of, what, 12 is it or 10 it would take a supreme effort to summon all the disparate opposition against the Conservatives. The practical working majority is probably nearer 30 or 40.
Indeed. Mr Carswell may well wonder if he is sitting on the correct side of the house!
Tories need to get rid of Mr Green as their main media man...he is so slimey. They need to get themselves a straight talking no nonsense person to do the media rounds.
Assuming the Conservatives gain St Ives, the parliamentary arithmetic is as follows: Conservatives: 329. Opposition: 313. Speaker & Deputies: 4. Working majority of 12.
Speedy He prmised to stick to his pledge for a fair deal for England too
Now the moaning for what that promise actually is will start. Cameron will have a year of a honeymoon, and then the knifes will come out like Major after 1992.
Election 2015: Watch Alex Salmond exchange hilarious banter with ... Scottish Daily Record-1 hour ago ALEX Salmond exchanged some hilarious political banter with Jeremy Paxman on Channel 4's Alternative Election night show. Paxo tried to ...
The above is interesting. It is a brilliant inteview by Salmond but what is even more interesting is the Record's treatment of it. Change in the wind I suspect.
For all the talk that it's a narrow majority of, what, 12 is it or 10 it would take a supreme effort to summon all the disparate opposition against the Conservatives. The practical working majority is probably nearer 30 or 40.
Yes, I think that's a very good point. Labour won't have enough MPs to ambush the government.
If Cameron makes EVEL and devolution to Scotland one of his first acts, he locks in an even bigger one and makes it much easier to govern later in this parliament.
You'd be looking at an overall majority of 80-90 in England alone.
Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis
Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?
Personally I'm slightly disappointed by the result because I think a party ought to get well over 40% in order to govern alone with an overall majority.
The tactical voting crowed are in a bit of a meltdown, hopefully Curtis et al will get to the bottom of what impact, if any, their efforts had. They're already gearing up for Holyrood 2016, they'll need a 3 dimensional model for this instead of a wheel:
Personally I'm slightly disappointed by the result because I think a party ought to get well over 40% in order to govern alone with an overall majority.
India's BJP last year managed an outright majority (ie. no need for regional allies) on just 31% of the vote.
Why are Hexham, Warwick, Kenilworth and St Ives taking so long? Take a leaf out of Sunderland's book LOL!
They only started counting at 10 or 11am. The puzzling thing was why seats like Luton North, Luton South, Cotswolds, Wells, etc. took 14 hours to count since they started last night.
As for the LD, Farron is the probable winner, Lamb is tainted by his coalition association. However there is no future for the LD, they let Clegg lead them to a huge wipeout thinking that LD incumbency and tactical voting will make it all ok.
Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis
Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?
LOL, I wish , it would have been 30p if me. Retired accountant seemingly , some Tory toff who does not even need it given he could afford to risk £30K in the first place. I would have been happy to spend it for him as well.
Personally I'm slightly disappointed by the result because I think a party ought to get well over 40% in order to govern alone with an overall majority.
It's true in England, and that criteria should be validated with further devolution to E&W,Scotland and NI.
The tactical voting crowed are in a bit of a meltdown, hopefully Curtis et al will get to the bottom of what impact, if any, their efforts had. They're already gearing up for Holyrood 2016, they'll need a 3 dimensional model for this instead of a wheel:
will Bercow make it 4? He may jump if he thinks he's about to be pushed.
If he does then he Tories should press for a mainstream fair-minded honest broker of a labour MP for the job. We certainly need someone who is willing to do an honest job of reforming the job of Speaker.
will Bercow make it 4? He may jump if he thinks he's about to be pushed.
If he does then he Tories should press for a mainstream fair-minded honest broker of a labour MP for the job. We certainly need someone who is willing to do an honest job of reforming the job of Speaker.
Andy JS No he is old news now and the Miliband brand damaged. The contest will be Umunna v Burnham v Cooper v Jarvis
Tories would be delighted with that list! Labour need to reflect a bit. And not choose anyone who is at all associated with Brown or Miliband. They need some completely new blood at the top. Someone we've never heard of. A clean sheet. A genuine person, not from Islington, had a real life before politics and who does not believe in the magic money tree. Is there such a person?
Well looking at the result, Labour needs a working class northerman, since UKIP took more votes from Labour than the Tories.
Why are Hexham, Warwick, Kenilworth and St Ives taking so long? Take a leaf out of Sunderland's book LOL!
They only started counting at 10 or 11am. The puzzling thing was why seats like Luton North, Luton South, Cotswolds, Wells, etc. took 14 hours to count since they started last night.
Ah I see. Didn't know they had a late start. Thanks.
David Miliband would undoubtedly have done much better. Not saying he would have won but Cameron would never have got a majority against David Miliband.
I know many on here don't rate him but, critically, he is a credible PM.
The Tories have confounded the polls to finish with a majority for the first time in 23 years yet I can't help but feel sad.
Listening to Clegg's resignation 'If our losses today are part-payment for every family that is more secure because of a job we helped create, every person with depression who is treated with the compassion they deserve, every child who does a little better in school, every apprentice with a long and rewarding career to look forward to, every gay couple who know their love is worth no less than everyone else's, and every pensioner with a little more freedom and dignity in retirement, then I hope our losses can be endured with a little selfless dignity.' combined with this tweet (https://mobile.twitter.com/IainDale/status/596626820398723072) makes me feel that we've made a terrible mistake in destroying the Lib Dems and that history will remember Cleggy as the best PM we never had.
Even with Miliband he seems to have been at ease and even made a few decent jokes.
A true emotional rollercoaster.
I wouldn't go that far, but I agree with those who've said the LDs deserve better. In 2010 they had the moral courage to do what the country needed, and in so doing, they chucked themselves under the bus for the wider good. That is an extraordinary and rare instance in public life of doing the wrong thing by yourself because it's the right thing for everyone else.
I think they will be back next time. The Coalition did a good job.
will Bercow make it 4? He may jump if he thinks he's about to be pushed.
If he does then he Tories should press for a mainstream fair-minded honest broker of a labour MP for the job. We certainly need someone who is willing to do an honest job of reforming the job of Speaker.
Kate Hoey?
With the bonus of taking a London seat out of the reckoning.
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It's actually 12.
So, public polls consistently way wrong, private party polls for Lab and Con (ballpark) right. That's a bizarre contrast.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001014
I see the first backbench rebellion coming.
1. Not associated with any policies except a referendum (so he's not even responsible for that). Embodies whatever you like. Like, it seems the third-most important policy after devolution and Europe is now apprenticeships?!?
2. Scots Out of Government.
You are only seduced by the yellow peril. One tiny weakness.
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They need a minister for poverty. This would ban the term relative poverty which means absolutely nothing and emphasize absolute ( or actual) poverty, and also they would monitor and support food banks. This would prevent the trussell trust misrepresenting the figures. Would have a cross departmental brief to look at and address the issues of poverty which often need a multi party intervention.
For all the talk that it's a narrow majority of, what, 12 is it or 10 it would take a supreme effort to summon all the disparate opposition against the Conservatives. The practical working majority is probably nearer 30 or 40.
Conservatives: 329. Opposition: 313. Speaker & Deputies: 4.
Working majority of 12.
Cameron will have a year of a honeymoon, and then the knifes will come out like Major after 1992.
Why not call themselves Nick Clegg and the seven dwarves?
Scottish Daily Record-1 hour ago
ALEX Salmond exchanged some hilarious political banter with Jeremy Paxman on Channel 4's Alternative Election night show. Paxo tried to ...
The above is interesting. It is a brilliant inteview by Salmond but what is even more interesting is the Record's treatment of it. Change in the wind I suspect.
Get a new Labour speaker
Win the Buckingham by-election
Makes the electoral maths in the Commons just a bit easier
You'd be looking at an overall majority of 80-90 in England alone.
https://twitter.com/SNPOut
FPTP, eh?
However there is no future for the LD, they let Clegg lead them to a huge wipeout thinking that LD incumbency and tactical voting will make it all ok.
The LD and Labour should start merger talks.
"President of the Board of Trade" title to be separated from BIS, and to be given to BoJo.
David Miliband would undoubtedly have done much better. Not saying he would have won but Cameron would never have got a majority against David Miliband.
I know many on here don't rate him but, critically, he is a credible PM.
I think they will be back next time. The Coalition did a good job.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000767
Con vote up 4.8%, Lab up 1.0%.