EPG, one important lesson is that Cameron has won without the right-wing fringe that has gone over to UKIP. He won without them. He doesn't need them. A divided right was supposed to be doomed to defeat. He has shown it is possible to build up sufficient support in the centre-right to get a majority.
But all analysts agree that Tory Ukippers went home to save England from Scotland, while northern Ukippers quit Labour.
Frankly the analysts have demonstrated pretty decisively in the last 24 hours that they know and understand very little.
more importantly the electorate was nowhere near as stupid as Labour hoped they would be.
Celebrated the SNP win up in Scotland by buying a bottle of Irn-Bru on the way into work
Tremendous congrats on ELBOW, it was in retrospect the most valuable and consistent scrutiny of what the polls were up to (esp after the phone/online split). and ace graphs!
Polly Toynbee has moved from being stuck in the seventies to being stuck in the nineties. There is no great division on Europe in the party - we'll have a referendum. Let the people decide.
I think they'll decide by two to one to stay in and David Cameron will then retire as the man who won two elections (second outright) and two referendums (AV and Europe).
Since the LDs lost 28 seats to the Tories - I think that bears out your point. Going into Coalition exposed the protest voters who were hiding in LD seats.
I think @Richard_Nabavi is also right in terms of the mood music - the LDs didn't give (m)any of their voters good reasons to hold their nose and remain in the Yellow Peril column either.
A double whammy. Oh and then there was Tuition Fees just to make things worse.
I don't understand why the junior member of a coalition usually ends up taking most of the blame for its unpopularity.
They handled it incredibly badly. They spent most of the 5 years looking thoroughly miserable about being in government, laying into their coalition partners in intemperate terms, and generally giving the strong impression that coalition is a bad idea, in direct contradiction to what they had been telling us for previous 50 years. As a result they didn't get the credit they deserved both for ensuring stability and for the LibDem policies which they did get implemented. They thought they needed to differentiate themselves by implying (and in many cases actually saying) that the Tories were dreadful heartless people interested only in helping the rich - a message which put centre-right voters off, and invited the response from the left "So why are you keeping this dreadful Tory party in government then?"
The needed above all to sell the concept of coalition as a Good Thing. Only in the last few weeks did they begin to get that message right, but by then it was too late.
I'm not sure that's the main reason for the LD collapse. I think it was a lot more due to their support in LD-CON marginal relying on tactical votes from Labour supporters, which disappeared after the coalition "betrayal."
Perhaps Labour should have made more of the fact that the easiest route to a Tory majority was them hovering up the LD seats.
Toires on 41% in England, up 1.4% on 2010 and same sort of increase in Wales, and this is with the UKIP surge. That is just utter utter bonkers.
Holes the 'progressive consensus' argument below the waterline, doesn't it.
Considering that Ukip were propelled upward by high immigration, gay marriage and foreign aid, that is debatable. The Tories may be progressives merely shunned for social reasons by Labour types.
EPG, one important lesson is that Cameron has won without the right-wing fringe that has gone over to UKIP. He won without them. He doesn't need them. A divided right was supposed to be doomed to defeat. He has shown it is possible to build up sufficient support in the centre-right to get a majority.
But all analysts agree that Tory Ukippers went home to save England from Scotland, while northern Ukippers quit Labour.
Frankly the analysts have demonstrated pretty decisively in the last 24 hours that they know and understand very little.
more importantly the electorate was nowhere near as stupid as Labour hoped they would be.
Celebrated the SNP win up in Scotland by buying a bottle of Irn-Bru on the way into work
Tremendous congrats on ELBOW, it was in retrospect the most valuable and consistent scrutiny of what the polls were up to (esp after the phone/online split). and ace graphs!
Thanks very much! I thought I was onto something with the phone/online split, but the polls this week, even the Phone ones, were a tad dire, to put it mildly; the aggregate Con lead for the Phones being only 0.5%.
Last week, the Phones were much better, with a Con lead of 2.7%., and the Phone month-of-April aggregate Con lead was 2.2%.
Ed Miliband, Keir Hardy, Eddie Izzard, Aneurin Bevan, Martin Freeman....can you hear me Martin Freeman? Your boys (and girls) took one HELL of a beating!
Wonder what Queen is saying to family member Cameron...
Thank f##k it isn't that other one. Prrrrrhhhhhhh.....Right Chubby. this time don't be such a lazy sod. No excuses this time as you don't have those Limp Dum ones this time.
EPG, one important lesson is that Cameron has won without the right-wing fringe that has gone over to UKIP. He won without them. He doesn't need them. A divided right was supposed to be doomed to defeat. He has shown it is possible to build up sufficient support in the centre-right to get a majority.
But all analysts agree that Tory Ukippers went home to save England from Scotland, while northern Ukippers quit Labour.
Frankly the analysts have demonstrated pretty decisively in the last 24 hours that they know and understand very little.
more importantly the electorate was nowhere near as stupid as Labour hoped they would be.
I take comfort in that.
Yep. Isn't democracy great?
In all seriousness despite all its shortcomings - HELL YEAH!
Further thoughts: this experience is going to scar a new generation of Labour politicians in even worse ways than 1992. However, if it teaches them not to take core voters for granted and to reach out to the unconverted, it will in the long run be good for Labour and good for Britain.
Have to admire how British parties quickly and cleanly dispose of failed leaders (or they dispose of themselves) and move on, compared to the U.S. Gives real hope for renewal and adaptation.
In the U.S., who leads the House Dems? Nancy Pelosi. Who leads the Senate Dems? Harry Reid. Who's leading the charge to be next president? Hillary who flopped spectacularly in 2008 and Jeb of the unending Bush dynasty.
The voters did a pretty through de-dynastificiation job, too. Ended the career of the younger Miliband, booted out half the Balls-Cooper family, fended off Will Straw. The only black mark is Neil Kinnock's son - pity Labour couldn't put up his wife instead.
Yes, that's another way in which democracy seems to be functioning better in the UK than in the U.S. Thanks to the recent trend to extreme polarization in U.S. politics, parties and their leaders feel free to disregard popular will and common sense to an extent that would have been unimaginable even a decade or so ago.
Did the shy kipper theory work out? I was lambasted for saying I have never met a shy kipper ( how would I know) but I seriously believe that the self confident right wingers have gone Ukip and the centre right is now plodding Tories getting on with their lives and difficult to measure for polling companies.
A decent farewell from Ed, but also one that showed why he was never a very good choice to lead. His lack of self awareness is startling.
It is now time for some major introspection and soul-searching. Sadly, I really don't think that parts of the party are capable of that. Whatever the short term hit it would be best if Len, Unite and other Jurassic unions were to leave and form a Real Labour party or something like that. Then the people left can start to have a proper debate about what it means to be a centre left party in an age of internationalisation, globalisation and limited resources. Look at aspiration and encourage it, understand how businesses - SMEs especially - function and embrace them as the engines of our economy, but frame arguments that are based on the idea that we all do best when the state acts as a guarantor of minimum standards of living and maximum equality of opportunity. Labour needs to keep its commitment to the state, but it needs to rethink what that state can and should be. At the root of everything is the idea of solidarity: that we are better off as individuals and as family units when we work together and look after each other, that is modern social democracy. No easy slogans, no NHS worship, no Tories this and Tories that, concede past errors - it's time to be grown-up, to accept that the world has moved on and to develop a vision that reflects this. Then sell it, from door to door, from street to street, day in and day out. This is the only way back.
Toires on 41% in England, up 1.4% on 2010 and same sort of increase in Wales, and this is with the UKIP surge. That is just utter utter bonkers.
Thank god for the intellectual self confidence of Ed Milliband.
I have never enjoyed an election night so much in all my life.
Well I can agree with that, because there is nothing wrong with celebrating a victory. However the reason for the delight is because of all the misrepresentation which went on before. I have never been so disgusted by a PPB as the one (the only PPB I stumbled on this time round) by Steve Coogan for Labour. Will Labour start to behave in a grown up manner and stop politicising and weaponising the NHS? Will they argue rationally not with lies?
But we have just sat through history. History on so many levels. As for Miliband resigning. He should never have stood and he should have never been elected.
But I am delighted to see that despite provocation the Tories did not counter UIKIP by playing the race card. This does not change the situation we are in or the problems we face. But let us hope and pray the problems can be faced rationally.
56 out of 59. Get used to it. The NATS won huge and Salmond's back virtue of the people of Gordon. Ho Ho Ho.
how's that holding the balance of power going for you ?
Ed giving in to your demands ?
Is Eck drafting Osborne's budget?
5 years of neutered rage ahoy !
so no different than the last Parliment.
Actually it's a far, far better position for the SNP to be in opposition against a small Tory majority than to have to shoulder responsibility for anything.
Starz Though to be fair neither Hillary nor Jeb Bush, if they were to be the candidates, have run in a general election before. Of the recent defeated general election candidates in the US, Romney, McCain, Kerry, Gore, Dole, Dukakis, Mondale etc none have even attempted to run in the presidential primaries for their party after a general election defeat.
Primary elections are different, indeed Reagan lost his first 2 primary battles
Further thoughts: this experience is going to scar a new generation of Labour politicians in even worse ways than 1992. However, if it teaches them not to take core voters for granted and to reach out to the unconverted, it will in the long run be good for Labour and good for Britain.
Could not agree more. The idea that you can win elections by shouting NHS and Tories has be tested to death and it has been shown to be wrong. You do not win with a core vote strategy.
Polly Toynbee has moved from being stuck in the seventies to being stuck in the nineties. There is no great division on Europe in the party - we'll have a referendum. Let the people decide.
I think they'll decide by two to one to stay in and David Cameron will then retire as the man who won two elections (second outright) and two referendums (AV and Europe).
Technically she's right. They fought 631 and lost net 48 more than Brown lost.
No. They failed to win as many seats as Brown.
Which is the same as losing more than Brown.
We win the pedant award. I can only lose a seat that I hold. I can fail to win a seat that I do not hold. If you ignore the concept that no one holds the seat then all are racing for a new seat and at the end of the race there is a winner and lots of losers.
The Tories have confounded the polls to finish with a majority for the first time in 23 years yet I can't help but feel sad.
Listening to Clegg's resignation 'If our losses today are part-payment for every family that is more secure because of a job we helped create, every person with depression who is treated with the compassion they deserve, every child who does a little better in school, every apprentice with a long and rewarding career to look forward to, every gay couple who know their love is worth no less than everyone else's, and every pensioner with a little more freedom and dignity in retirement, then I hope our losses can be endured with a little selfless dignity.' combined with this tweet (https://mobile.twitter.com/IainDale/status/596626820398723072) makes me feel that we've made a terrible mistake in destroying the Lib Dems and that history will remember Cleggy as the best PM we never had.
Even with Miliband he seems to have been at ease and even made a few decent jokes.
A true emotional rollercoaster.
The Lib Dems were a completely pernicious force in British politics; their flushing is long overdue.
Here are my main thoughts on the results, if anyone is interested.
1) It's a fantastic result for the country. We now have a majority Conservative government that can keep on pushing on the issues that need to be sorted out: creating a strong economy, balancing the books, sorting out out relationship with the EU, improving our education system, reforming welfare and curbing immigration. Congratulations and thank you to all the people that made it happen: Cameron, Crosby and Osborne, and of course all those hard working fellow Tory activists around the country.
2) As a party, we can not be complacent. We only have the slimmest of majorities and we will face a lot of struggle passing bills over the next five years. We shouldn't let the sudden change in expectations overcome the big picture. We have not really increased our vote share, and the change in seats is mainly due to other parties failing: Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The underlying surges in actual votes have been the SNP and UKIP. SNP have likely topped out, but UKIP could still grow further. UKIP improvement and a Labour recovery could easily strip us of our majority over the coming years.
3) Populism on social and identity issues is a major force to be reckoned with, as the UKIP and SNP gains show. The most elitist party on such things - the Liberal Democrats - got decimated, and the second most elitist one - Labour - were also hammered. It now looks very wise for the Conservatives to keep their immigration pledge, to promise an EU referendum, and to support English votes for English laws. We managed to keep the UKIP tide at bay, but Labour's failure to do this cost them dearly. They need to seriously think about their positions on these three issues unless they want to crumble in the North as they have done in Scotland. Meanwhile the Conservatives must make sure they do not water down such policies or we will suffer the same fate.
4) London is now a completely different beast to the rest of the country. Labour have suffered dearly from most of their party activists being from the capital, and this completely skewed their sensibilities on what the country wanted. All politicians need to accept the simple reality that strong support among the chattering classes and ethnic minorities can not cope with falling out of touch with voters in the shires.
5) Our electoral system is completely bust. It can not be at all legitimate that the Greens, UKIP and the Liberal Democrats get a quarter of the vote but less than 2% of the seats between them. Meanwhile the SNP get more than 50 seats on under 5% of the vote. It will cause major public disillusionment if action is not taken here. Given the large support for PR, it is intellectually dishonest to pretend the AV referendum has anything do with this.
Further thoughts: this experience is going to scar a new generation of Labour politicians in even worse ways than 1992. However, if it teaches them not to take core voters for granted and to reach out to the unconverted, it will in the long run be good for Labour and good for Britain.
Could not agree more. The idea that you can win elections by shouting NHS and Tories has be tested to death and it has been shown to be wrong. You do not win with a core vote strategy.
Labour need to start to really consider policy. Ed had all those policy committees and ultimately they went into the election with basically nothing that stood up to any close inspection, most were rehashes of old failed ones.
Still stand by that Tory GE was crap, but Cameron is very lucky the twin threat of Ed and Sturgeon had people running to Tories in England and Wales.
Toires on 41% in England, up 1.4% on 2010 and same sort of increase in Wales, and this is with the UKIP surge. That is just utter utter bonkers.
Thank god for the intellectual self confidence of Ed Milliband.
I have never enjoyed an election night so much in all my life.
Well I can agree with that, because there is nothing wrong with celebrating a victory. However the reason for the delight is because of all the misrepresentation which went on before. I have never been so disgusted by a PPB as the one (the only PPB I stumbled on this time round) by Steve Coogan for Labour. Will Labour start to behave in a grown up manner and stop politicising and weaponising the NHS? Will they argue rationally not with lies?
But we have just sat through history. History on so many levels. As for Miliband resigning. He should never have stood and he should have never been elected.
But I am delighted to see that despite provocation the Tories did not counter UIKIP by playing the race card. This does not change the situation we are in or the problems we face. But let us hope and pray the problems can be faced rationally.
I think that Labour went for emotional responses rather than rationality on the campaign. It was all about values and emotions rather than the cold reality of government. In this way the #edstone was very significant. All six statements were the sort of bland mission statements that mean nothing.
@iainmartin1: Resignation latest: I'm very proud of what we've achieved (not much) at DUEMA (Don't Underestimate Ed Mili Assoc) but is right that we close
Then the people left can start to have a proper debate about what it means to be a centre left party in an age of internationalisation, globalisation and limited resources. ... No easy slogans, no NHS worship, no Tories this and Tories that, concede past errors - it's time to be grown-up, to accept that the world has moved on and to develop a vision that reflects this. Then sell it, from door to door, from street to street, day in and day out. This is the only way back.
I agree with what you say, but I don't see Labour taking much notice any time soon.
Well I've done some preliminary analysis with the exit poll of what is needed to correct the polls:
1. Online polls need to be banned, panel surveys are clearly not the future.
2. There should be no reallocation or exclusion of D/K from the final figures, pollsters should report them in the final figures . 3. Turnout weighting should reduce the figure of those in employment or university by 20% from what they say, due to the election being on a working day.
4. Constituency specific questions should be banned, they clearly distort polls to a massive degree.
Also, I thought it would take a successful Scottish independence referendum to see what British politics would look like without Scotland. I guess that wasn't entirely the case.
If I may in some successive posts I'll try and rationalize these momentous events
ARSE & the "JackW Dozen"
From the moment Ed was elected as LotO it was patently clear that EWNBPM was the order of the day. Ed never had the look, almost literally, of a Prime Minister in waiting and the voters will never elect an individual who cannot appear to command the duties of the Queen's First Minister.
The economic, social and demographic factors fell into place in my ARSE with ease. Importantly unemployment and growth both fell within a whisker of my projections as did most of the other element central to the forecast.
PBers will recall I repeatedly advised that my ARSE was not a nowcast but forecast for 7th May but clearly as the day loomed the polls would play a more important part. Despite my ARSE filter allowing for shy Tories and differential turnout that regularly topped the Conservatives above 300 the failure of the polls, even ICM, notched down the blue seats and overestimated the yellow peril. Essentially the ARSE filter required another turn.
The same is true in Scotland where my ARSE expected a higher differential turnout for the SNP but clearly by not enough.
In late 2013 I started, some said very unwisely, to choose 13 difficult seats that I believed would shape the contest and they certainly did.
Of those "JackW Dozen" 10 were hits but Nick Palmer, and losses in Cambridge (very unexpected) and Cornwall North (less so) bucked the trend.
So overall perhaps a B+ .... I hope adherents of the ARSE punted well, you really should have and now PBers for one final time may I express the view, much derided by many, that :
Further thoughts: this experience is going to scar a new generation of Labour politicians in even worse ways than 1992. However, if it teaches them not to take core voters for granted and to reach out to the unconverted, it will in the long run be good for Labour and good for Britain.
Could not agree more. The idea that you can win elections by shouting NHS and Tories has be tested to death and it has been shown to be wrong. You do not win with a core vote strategy.
Labour need to start to really consider policy. Ed had all those policy committees and ultimately they went into the election with basically nothing that stood up to any close inspection, most were rehashes of old failed ones.
Still stand by that Tory GE was crap, but Cameron is very lucky the twin threat of Ed and Sturgeon had people running to Tories in England and Wales.
Tory GE was crap? Even though they won their first majoriy since 1992, and vote share was also up (just!).
@iainmartin1: Resignation latest: I'm very proud of what we've achieved (not much) at DUEMA (Don't Underestimate Ed Mili Assoc) but is right that we close
Toires on 41% in England, up 1.4% on 2010 and same sort of increase in Wales, and this is with the UKIP surge. That is just utter utter bonkers.
Thank god for the intellectual self confidence of Ed Milliband.
I have never enjoyed an election night so much in all my life.
Well I can agree with that, because there is nothing wrong with celebrating a victory. However the reason for the delight is because of all the misrepresentation which went on before. I have never been so disgusted by a PPB as the one (the only PPB I stumbled on this time round) by Steve Coogan for Labour. Will Labour start to behave in a grown up manner and stop politicising and weaponising the NHS? Will they argue rationally not with lies?
But we have just sat through history. History on so many levels. As for Miliband resigning. He should never have stood and he should have never been elected.
But I am delighted to see that despite provocation the Tories did not counter UIKIP by playing the race card. This does not change the situation we are in or the problems we face. But let us hope and pray the problems can be faced rationally.
Amen brother and a great post by Southam too.
If only Labour / the left could grow up a bit.
The State should be a backstop, but all of us as citizens have to take responsibility for ourselves too.
I want choice too, the education system failed my youngest utterly yet it cost me a small fortune to force the State to provide an appropriate education.
I could afford it.... just. The majority of families could not.
Comments
This man , the architect, the genius behind the Labour wipe out. All Jim Murphy's idea.
Even if there was no other reason for Murphy resigning then this appointment would be the one.
I have never enjoyed an election night so much in all my life.
I think @Richard_Nabavi is also right in terms of the mood music - the LDs didn't give (m)any of their voters good reasons to hold their nose and remain in the Yellow Peril column either.
A double whammy. Oh and then there was Tuition Fees just to make things worse.
Last week, the Phones were much better, with a Con lead of 2.7%., and the Phone month-of-April aggregate Con lead was 2.2%.
So much for Labour's much vaunted 'ground game'.
It was traditionally around Guy Fawkes Day wasn't it, but I think its changed now hasn't it?
Thank f##k it isn't that other one. Prrrrrhhhhhhh.....Right Chubby. this time don't be such a lazy sod. No excuses this time as you don't have those Limp Dum ones this time.
The Tories have never won an election since - ahem - yesterday. Yet Labour won one ten-years ago....
© redrag/ios/compouter/compouter2/chilon/any-other-troll
my sell of cons at 290.5 less so.
net result - a small loss..
If Mike puts out his PB begging bowl then I am happy to contribute from the foxinsox beer fund.
It is now time for some major introspection and soul-searching. Sadly, I really don't think that parts of the party are capable of that. Whatever the short term hit it would be best if Len, Unite and other Jurassic unions were to leave and form a Real Labour party or something like that. Then the people left can start to have a proper debate about what it means to be a centre left party in an age of internationalisation, globalisation and limited resources. Look at aspiration and encourage it, understand how businesses - SMEs especially - function and embrace them as the engines of our economy, but frame arguments that are based on the idea that we all do best when the state acts as a guarantor of minimum standards of living and maximum equality of opportunity. Labour needs to keep its commitment to the state, but it needs to rethink what that state can and should be. At the root of everything is the idea of solidarity: that we are better off as individuals and as family units when we work together and look after each other, that is modern social democracy. No easy slogans, no NHS worship, no Tories this and Tories that, concede past errors - it's time to be grown-up, to accept that the world has moved on and to develop a vision that reflects this. Then sell it, from door to door, from street to street, day in and day out. This is the only way back.
But we have just sat through history. History on so many levels.
As for Miliband resigning. He should never have stood and he should have never been elected.
But I am delighted to see that despite provocation the Tories did not counter UIKIP by playing the race card. This does not change the situation we are in or the problems we face. But let us hope and pray the problems can be faced rationally.
Burnham favourite for Lab leader.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000554
Primary elections are different, indeed Reagan lost his first 2 primary battles
I can only lose a seat that I hold. I can fail to win a seat that I do not hold.
If you ignore the concept that no one holds the seat then all are racing for a new seat and at the end of the race there is a winner and lots of losers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000575
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHFJ8oju9u0
Here are my main thoughts on the results, if anyone is interested.
1) It's a fantastic result for the country. We now have a majority Conservative government that can keep on pushing on the issues that need to be sorted out: creating a strong economy, balancing the books, sorting out out relationship with the EU, improving our education system, reforming welfare and curbing immigration. Congratulations and thank you to all the people that made it happen: Cameron, Crosby and Osborne, and of course all those hard working fellow Tory activists around the country.
2) As a party, we can not be complacent. We only have the slimmest of majorities and we will face a lot of struggle passing bills over the next five years. We shouldn't let the sudden change in expectations overcome the big picture. We have not really increased our vote share, and the change in seats is mainly due to other parties failing: Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The underlying surges in actual votes have been the SNP and UKIP. SNP have likely topped out, but UKIP could still grow further. UKIP improvement and a Labour recovery could easily strip us of our majority over the coming years.
3) Populism on social and identity issues is a major force to be reckoned with, as the UKIP and SNP gains show. The most elitist party on such things - the Liberal Democrats - got decimated, and the second most elitist one - Labour - were also hammered. It now looks very wise for the Conservatives to keep their immigration pledge, to promise an EU referendum, and to support English votes for English laws. We managed to keep the UKIP tide at bay, but Labour's failure to do this cost them dearly. They need to seriously think about their positions on these three issues unless they want to crumble in the North as they have done in Scotland. Meanwhile the Conservatives must make sure they do not water down such policies or we will suffer the same fate.
4) London is now a completely different beast to the rest of the country. Labour have suffered dearly from most of their party activists being from the capital, and this completely skewed their sensibilities on what the country wanted. All politicians need to accept the simple reality that strong support among the chattering classes and ethnic minorities can not cope with falling out of touch with voters in the shires.
5) Our electoral system is completely bust. It can not be at all legitimate that the Greens, UKIP and the Liberal Democrats get a quarter of the vote but less than 2% of the seats between them. Meanwhile the SNP get more than 50 seats on under 5% of the vote. It will cause major public disillusionment if action is not taken here. Given the large support for PR, it is intellectually dishonest to pretend the AV referendum has anything do with this.
They have Con 332 buy and sell.
But total will be 331 (inc Speaker).
Still stand by that Tory GE was crap, but Cameron is very lucky the twin threat of Ed and Sturgeon had people running to Tories in England and Wales.
L
1. Online polls need to be banned, panel surveys are clearly not the future.
2. There should be no reallocation or exclusion of D/K from the final figures, pollsters should report them in the final figures
.
3. Turnout weighting should reduce the figure of those in employment or university by 20% from what they say, due to the election being on a working day.
4. Constituency specific questions should be banned, they clearly distort polls to a massive degree.
ARSE & the "JackW Dozen"
From the moment Ed was elected as LotO it was patently clear that EWNBPM was the order of the day. Ed never had the look, almost literally, of a Prime Minister in waiting and the voters will never elect an individual who cannot appear to command the duties of the Queen's First Minister.
The economic, social and demographic factors fell into place in my ARSE with ease. Importantly unemployment and growth both fell within a whisker of my projections as did most of the other element central to the forecast.
PBers will recall I repeatedly advised that my ARSE was not a nowcast but forecast for 7th May but clearly as the day loomed the polls would play a more important part. Despite my ARSE filter allowing for shy Tories and differential turnout that regularly topped the Conservatives above 300 the failure of the polls, even ICM, notched down the blue seats and overestimated the yellow peril. Essentially the ARSE filter required another turn.
The same is true in Scotland where my ARSE expected a higher differential turnout for the SNP but clearly by not enough.
In late 2013 I started, some said very unwisely, to choose 13 difficult seats that I believed would shape the contest and they certainly did.
Of those "JackW Dozen" 10 were hits but Nick Palmer, and losses in Cambridge (very unexpected) and Cornwall North (less so) bucked the trend.
So overall perhaps a B+ .... I hope adherents of the ARSE punted well, you really should have and now PBers for one final time may I express the view, much derided by many, that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
If only Labour / the left could grow up a bit.
The State should be a backstop, but all of us as citizens have to take responsibility for ourselves too.
I want choice too, the education system failed my youngest utterly yet it cost me a small fortune to force the State to provide an appropriate education.
I could afford it.... just. The majority of families could not.