Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)
It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.
What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.
I have no idea what happened with the polls. Astonishing.
Is there not a case to be made that what happened was *just* at the extreme boundaries of the MoE of the final polls that almost all showed a tie?
I made a very similar point yesterday about how small polling errors akin to those we saw in the Scottish referendum could lead to an overall majority either way. But I think the pollsters need to start from deep humility and a recognition that this has been a catastrophic election for them.
One or two pundits and tipsters might be a bit more reticent in the future as well. We could do with hearing a bit less about the LD incumbency factor, etc
So using the UK Polling Report advanced swingometer UNS on the vote shares with adjustments for Scotland and Wales would have given about CON 321 LAB 240 SNP 55 LIB 11.
Not bad. National polls are more than mood music, if they're actually right.
Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)
It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.
What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.
I have no idea what happened with the polls. Astonishing.
Is there not a case to be made that what happened was *just* at the extreme boundaries of the MoE of the final polls that almost all showed a tie?
How far off was the Ashcroft poll about a week ago that had the Tories up 6%? I don't recall the full set of numbers on that, but IIRC it was close to the actual result.
For me, this has to be a death knell for online panel-based polling in its current form. I suspect that post mortems will show anchoring to have been a problem - that people's past responses to a poll will frame their answers to the next thereby introducing an inertia to their VI responses that is not present in the un-polled population.
As for the LD, Farron is the probable winner, Lamb is tainted by his coalition association. However there is no future for the LD, they let Clegg lead them to a huge wipeout thinking that LD incumbency and tactical voting will make it all ok.
The LD and Labour should start merger talks.
Why. With Farron as a leader the LD's are a credible left wing replacement party instead of a protest vote...
What credible left wing replacement? There is no LD party left.
The only think that Farron can do is start merger talks with Labour, and Labour would probably accept it because they need a serious revamp as an English only party.
Speedy The EU referendum and constitutional matters related to the UK will certainly form a key part in the next few years
John Major's term will look like a picknick.
I can't see John Redwood launching a leadership bid this time, can you? Or Bill Cash being a permanent fixture on TV?
John Redwood made some eminently sensible comments despite BBC baiting. Really hope Cameron can negotiate a good deal that will make our continued membership sustainable (for the sake of other countries too where the people are concerned with the current arrangement).
Karin Smyth Colleen Fletcher Mattehw Pennycook Tulip Siddiq Vicky Foxcroft Richard Burgon Kate Hollern Ruth Smeeth Marie Rimmer Helen Hayes Jo Cox Angela Rayner Melanie Onn Judith Cummins Christina Rees Peter Dowd Harry Harpham Sue Hayman Keir Starmer Gerald Jones Rachel Maskell Conor McGinn Kate Osamor Nick Thomas-Symonds Holly Lynch-Walker Naseem Shah Daniel Zeichner Margaret Greenwood Thangam Debbonaire Chris Matheson Paula Sherriff Jess Philips Imran Hussain Jeff Smith Clive Lewis Peter Kyle Ruth Cadbury Neil Coyle Catherine West Wes Streeting Anna Turley Jo Stevens Rupa Huq Julie Cooper Cat Smith
What was everyone's most staggering result of the night ?
Think mine was Nuneaton tbh. I hadn't even had a punt on the seat.
Disappointment of the night was Huppert from a financial perspective ^^;
Moment of the night was Uncle Vince being smoked. Big roar from the pub on that one.
It was a night of VERY long knives.
Ed Balls losing.
Although I'd bet on Julian Huppert, I'd always felt his chances of bucking the trend were being a bit overstated. The polling looked particularly iffy in Cambridge.
Patrick Why? Cameron is an old Etonian, Oxbridge PR man, Blair was a slick Public school educated lawyer, both succeeded state educated PMs. It is not where you come from that matters so much as what you say. I think that list would be a very good list and all of those figures could be a future Labour PM, moderate, telegenic and reasonable. Umunna Britain's first black PM, Cooper Labour's first woman PM, Burnham a northener, Jarvis ex army. Umunna and Jarvis were not even elected until 2010/2011
Jarvis - As SO points out, he may fit the bill. I don't know him but seems, prima facie, to be human. No old stink attaches. Probably the one. Therefore Lasbour will choose another. Umunna - me, me, me, god I'm beautiful. Have you noticed I'm black? My suits are sharper than yours. Tosser. Bye bye white van middle England. Dave's secret hope. Cooper - Indelibly tainted with Balls' and Brown's stink. Sharp but shouty on TV. Not a warm likeable person. Old and stale. Burnham - Mid Staffs. Professional northerner. Tosser. Idiot. Virgil from Thunderbirds doppelganger. Old and stale. Not a new idea or appreciation of why Labour failed so utterly in his head. Dave would be delighted.
What was everyone's most staggering result of the night ?
Think mine was Nuneaton tbh. I hadn't even had a punt on the seat.
Disappointment of the night was Huppert from a financial perspective ^^;
Moment of the night was Uncle Vince being smoked. Big roar from the pub on that one.
It was a night of VERY long knives.
It was a series of staggering results TBH. I don't think any one particularly stands out, because the pattern was remarkably uniform: Labour making virtually no progress (or even going backwards) in Con/Lab marginals, the SNP sweeping nearly all before them, and the LibDems collapsing in strongholds as well as no-hope seats.
Patrick Why? Cameron is an old Etonian, Oxbridge PR man, Blair was a slick Public school educated lawyer, both succeeded state educated PMs. It is not where you come from that matters so much as what you say. I think that list would be a very good list and all of those figures could be a future Labour PM, moderate, telegenic and reasonable. Umunna Britain's first black PM, Cooper Labour's first woman PM, Burnham a northener, Jarvis ex army. Umunna and Jarvis were not even elected until 2010/2011
Jarvis - As SO points out, he may fit the bill. I don't know him but seems, prima facie, to be human. No old stink attaches. Probably the one. Therefore Lasbour will choose another. Umunna - me, me, me, god I'm beautiful. Have you noticed I'm black? My suits are sharper than yours. Tosser. Bye bye white van middle England. Dave's secret hope. Cooper - Indelibly tainted with Balls' and Brown's stink. Sharp but shouty on TV. Not a warm likeable person. Old and stale. Burnham - Mid Staffs. Professional northerner. Tosser. Idiot. Virgil from Thunderbirds doppelganger. Old and stale. Not a new idea or appreciation of why Labour failed so utterly in his head. Dave would be delighted.
He's black, or a Northerner, or an ex soldier. She's a woman. Image over substance. That's been the problem, seems crazy to repeat it.
The Liberal/Tory seats look alot like the Labour/SNP seats in Scotland. So many of them look like they are very safe for the new MPs. It could take another seismic shift to get the seats back. If the Libdems cannot get back to their by-election winning ways, and UKIP could make that very difficult in the next parliament, it is hard to see them regaining many seats in 2020 unless they can double their share of the popular vote.
What was everyone's most staggering result of the night ?
Think mine was Nuneaton tbh. I hadn't even had a punt on the seat.
Disappointment of the night was Huppert from a financial perspective ^^;
Moment of the night was Uncle Vince being smoked. Big roar from the pub on that one.
It was a night of VERY long knives.
Ed Balls losing.
Although I'd bet on Julian Huppert, I'd always felt his chances of bucking the trend were being a bit overstated. The polling looked particularly iffy in Cambridge.
Where DZ found those 4000 voters from is a mystery - suspect much registration activity at the polytechnic. Huppert was static - his rival came back at the expense of the Cons.
What was everyone's most staggering result of the night ?
Think mine was Nuneaton tbh. I hadn't even had a punt on the seat.
Disappointment of the night was Huppert from a financial perspective ^^;
Moment of the night was Uncle Vince being smoked. Big roar from the pub on that one.
It was a night of VERY long knives.
Ed Balls losing.
Although I'd bet on Julian Huppert, I'd always felt his chances of bucking the trend were being a bit overstated. The polling looked particularly iffy in Cambridge.
Rod Crosby had repeatedly tipped it up. Ages ago, when Labour were 10% ahead in the polls. He was the only one who used the original version of the Lebo-Norpoth model even when it's own creators had tweaked it to unrecognisability.
I got this totally and utterly wrong. sucked in by the polls so close together, especially on the day. Genuinely thought it would be a toss up....
In hindsight it was just obvious Labour risked a drubbing, the biggest giveaways were what party in any country has ever polled respectably when that far behind on leadership ratings and economic competence?
However, I just ignored the overwhelming evidence in front of me. These were two, huge, flashing warning signs that I ignored...coupled with the historic issue of Labour's lead being overstated, it was a BIG hole in Labour's propsects....Well done to those with far better foresight!
i'll let the dust settle before sorting logistics re isam and payment process - no idea how that works!
Jesus this is £160 quid isn't it? Did I forget about a big bet we had?
You and eagles are buddies if you want to cut out the middle man take it out of what he owes me ?
Just about to message you on that.
im heading out but will be back later, yes you may have forgotten some I fear but need to check my notes for the amounts. I've got Tories within Farage, LDems x4 UKIP, Reckless losing and that's just off the top of my head.
Patrick Why? Cameron is an old Etonian, Oxbridge PR man, Blair was a slick Public school educated lawyer, both succeeded state educated PMs. It is not where you come from that matters so much as what you say. I think that list would be a very good list and all of those figures could be a future Labour PM, moderate, telegenic and reasonable. Umunna Britain's first black PM, Cooper Labour's first woman PM, Burnham a northener, Jarvis ex army. Umunna and Jarvis were not even elected until 2010/2011
Umunna: narcissistic oily creep who edits his own wikipedia page Cooper: looks, sounds and is nasty; reminds everyone of Ed Balls Burnham: the Butcher of Mid-Staffs Jarvis: who? is he in the right union?
Labour have a real problem here in that as Miliblob has gone already they are stuck with picking someone quickly from the existing rabble of ghastly dullards. They are now paying the price for implementing racist and sexist candidate selection policies because they've got a PP padded out with totally useless fluff that is there because happens to have the right plumbing, or head covering, or whatever.
I just do not see how they get off this hook. They are like the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1809 trying to come up with a general who can take on Napoleon and settling on of the family clique. The Archduke Charles was, you know, quite good, but he still got owned by the opposition.
The next Labour PM isn't yet in Parliament. Maybe not even in politics.
Marr: it was ed in nicola's pocket wot won it (on basis of what gen public have been saying to marr personally)
It cut through to the public in a way that very few political messages ever do. It was a masterstroke.
What is baffling is that the pollsters didn't pick it up.
I have no idea what happened with the polls. Astonishing.
Is there not a case to be made that what happened was *just* at the extreme boundaries of the MoE of the final polls that almost all showed a tie?
I think the polls are useless.
The common theme uniting the SNP and Tories was decent leader ratings.
Um. ELBOW was a snapshot, not a prediction, as I frequently reminded Lord Ashcroft (kidding!).
The final week of polls was surely a case of quantity over quality, even among the phone pollsters.
Ipsos MORI on polling day got close to the Tories on 36%, but overstated Lab on 35%. ComRes the same day had Con 35%, Lab 34%. , as did online pollster Opinium.
But ComRes on the 5th, had Con 35%, Lab 32%, so not too bad a shout.
The Phone polls last week (week-ending 1st) were a bit better:
His Lordship had Con 36, Lab 30 on 26th April, so not bad at all! ICM the same day had Con 35, Lab 32. And Ipsos MORI had Con 35 Lab 30 on the 29th April
And even some of the online polls had Cons on 35:
BMG's maiden poll (27th) was Con 35, Lab 32 YouGov 27th April was Con 35, Lab 34 They repeated this on 29th April And another 35 v. 34 with Opinium on 30th April.
Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.
I am saddened to hear you sound so bitter Marcus.
This "pointless political party" help to secure the nations future in 2010 and formed an integral part of one of the best post war governments the country has enjoyed.
A little grace might have been more appropriate Marcus. Sadly you couldn't manage it.
I don't remember the Lib Dems *ever* showing grace when they actually were 'winning here' so I am afraid they (and you) will just have to sup it up. Their trademark style of very personally focused negative campaigning won't be back and politics will be the better for it.
The Liberal/Tory seats look alot like the Labour/SNP seats in Scotland. So many of them look like they are very safe for the new MPs. It could take another seismic shift to get the seats back. If the Libdems cannot get back to their by-election winning ways, and UKIP could make that very difficult in the next parliament, it is hard to see them regaining many seats in 2020 unless they can double their share of the popular vote.
The LD will go down further in 2020. Now that they are out of contention in almost all their former seats, they will never get that tactical vote and have too few seats for any coalition prospects.
What was everyone's most staggering result of the night ?
Think mine was Nuneaton tbh. I hadn't even had a punt on the seat.
Disappointment of the night was Huppert from a financial perspective ^^;
Moment of the night was Uncle Vince being smoked. Big roar from the pub on that one.
It was a night of VERY long knives.
Ed Balls losing.
Although I'd bet on Julian Huppert, I'd always felt his chances of bucking the trend were being a bit overstated. The polling looked particularly iffy in Cambridge.
Rod Crosby had repeatedly tipped it up. Ages ago, when Labour were 10% ahead in the polls. He was the only one who used the original version of the Lebo-Norpoth model even when it's own creators had tweaked it to unrecognisability.
He's a man who called this right.
Hat tip to Rod. A brave man to steadfastly withstand the ridicule of the herd and stand by his own analysis. Bravo.
Also, congrats to the PB community as a whole. I have to say Labour supporters on here have been gracious in defeat to an extent one would never see on a US political site. Thanks to Mike, Robert and TSE for their work to make this such a thoughtful and stimulating site.
I'll bite - yes for the time being. They'll have trouble keeping their support without Farage over the summer since they thrive on publicity. However - aren't there council elections in many places - have there been any announcements of results or aren't they being counted yet?
As for the LD, Farron is the probable winner, Lamb is tainted by his coalition association. However there is no future for the LD, they let Clegg lead them to a huge wipeout thinking that LD incumbency and tactical voting will make it all ok.
The LD and Labour should start merger talks.
Why. With Farron as a leader the LD's are a credible left wing replacement party instead of a protest vote...
Farron is the energetic and ambitious communicator from the Northern modest background, strong on social conservatism that can recapture the kipper vote. A surprising number of kippers had voted LD previously. He is strong on free speech and advocated repealling blasphemy laws despite being a Christian himself.
I am not particularly a fan but cometh the hour cometh the man. He will rebuild the LDs as a left of centre party that would be a real alternative to Labour.
The LibDems will revive, but it will take a while.
Well done to the Tories. No denying they ran an effective campaign. As gutted as I am, maybe it's for the best that they stay in government with Labour still so confused about what they stand for. I hope the Tories stick to the hints they dropped in the campaign about genuinely trying to share the recovery out more equally and hopefully ease off the austerity.
As for Labour, I'm still far from convinced that this defeat was caused by them being too "left-wing" and I fear that a shift rightwards will send Northern England the same way as Scotland in time.
I'll bite - yes for the time being. They'll have trouble keeping their support without Farage over the summer since they thrive on publicity. However - aren't there council elections in many places - have there been any announcements of results or aren't they being counted yet?
Can we take a moment of silence to remember the sacrifice that Ed's Lectern took over the course of this defeat. Dragged from back garden to back garden up and down the country.
Went to bed at 5.30am and woke up at 10.30am and WOW!! The most positive thing to come out of this in my opinion, is that there has been a massive 'clearout' of all the 'old faces, especially on the Labour side. You can't renew a party with all the old baggage hanging around.
The biggest losers for me are the broadcasters and their mediocre presenters. Every time Kay Burley and Anna Botting (SKY) came on, I just turned the sound off, their faces said it all. I didn't watch much of BBC but I would hazard a guess it was just as dire.
I have just watched Grant Shapps being subjected to two very belligerent interviews by Dermot Murnaghan and Andrew Neil. They seemed more interested in his 'Wiki' problems than anything else.
Not sorry to see Vince Cable go, so much for 'demanding' the Lib Dems have at least 24 ministers!!!
Sorry to see Ed Balls go but better for the Labour party in the long run. One of the few 'characters' in parliament.
Speedy The EU referendum and constitutional matters related to the UK will certainly form a key part in the next few years
John Major's term will look like a picknick.
I can't see John Redwood launching a leadership bid this time, can you? Or Bill Cash being a permanent fixture on TV?
Next year all those things that made Cameron rise up, will drag him down. Devolution, the EU, the Economy will all make their impact strongly felt.
6 by-elections later and the Tories would be in a minority with Cameron facing not the Referendum party and Redwood, but UKIP and Boris.
People who have underestimated Cameron have repeatedly been wrong.
We'll vote to stay in the EU. Nailed on, and because it is not integral to people's being in the way nationality is, it'll shoot UkIP's fox I reckon.
The consequences will be even more interesting that that in my opinion. Ex-Tory euroscepticism as the raison d'etre for UKIP will be dead, but they are already morphing into the opposition to Labour in working class areas. Long-term the threat to Labour is much greater and this would not go away after losing a referendum. Labour could even face a similar existential crisis to what has played out in Scotland after the independence referendum was lost.
The Liberal/Tory seats look alot like the Labour/SNP seats in Scotland. So many of them look like they are very safe for the new MPs. It could take another seismic shift to get the seats back. If the Libdems cannot get back to their by-election winning ways, and UKIP could make that very difficult in the next parliament, it is hard to see them regaining many seats in 2020 unless they can double their share of the popular vote.
The LD will go down further in 2020. Now that they are out of contention in almost all their former seats, they will never get that tactical vote and have too few seats for any coalition prospects.
They will definitely lose Sheffield Hallam then.
They will also find it very difficult to get funding.
I'll bite - yes for the time being. They'll have trouble keeping their support without Farage over the summer since they thrive on publicity. However - aren't there council elections in many places - have there been any announcements of results or aren't they being counted yet?
I think they will do ok without Farage as long as they have a charismatic but less divisive leader. Well they might get Carswell, he will stir the anti-UKIP vote less than Farage while being equally populist but without all the racist bits.
With the next 5 years being all about the EU and devolution, Carswell is the expert on that so they will do ok.
Bloody hell. Just checked the results in Cornwall. The Tory victories were huge.
Previous marginals now have Tory majorities of 6000-8000.
The Tory majority in Truro is.... 14,000.
It would appear that far from not being conservative enough, in the SW particularly but also nationwide, Cameron is just the right amount of conservative.
I'll bite - yes for the time being. They'll have trouble keeping their support without Farage over the summer since they thrive on publicity. However - aren't there council elections in many places - have there been any announcements of results or aren't they being counted yet?
And of course the Euro-ref to keep them entertained.
Though on this I think "In" will win. Not because of the merits of the arguments, but because referenda are usually treated as a way to kick a mid term government where it hurts. One of many reasons that referendums are a poor form of decision making.
I'll bite - yes for the time being. They'll have trouble keeping their support without Farage over the summer since they thrive on publicity. However - aren't there council elections in many places - have there been any announcements of results or aren't they being counted yet?
Looking at the (final-1) %ges the Labour vote went up in percentages more than the Tory vote did - and yet Labour lost. Someone, not a million miles away from electoralcalculus, will have to work out whether Labour voter efficiency has taken a very severe knock (or the tory one has improved substantially.)
Unfortunately I hear that the YouGov guys are otherwise engaged. They have been summoned to go and see Murdoch....and "politely" asked WTF HAVE I BEEN PAYING YOU CHUMPS ALL THIS MONEY FOR....YOUR FIRED
Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.
I am saddened to hear you sound so bitter Marcus.
This "pointless political party" help to secure the nations future in 2010 and formed an integral part of one of the best post war governments the country has enjoyed.
A little grace might have been more appropriate Marcus. Sadly you couldn't manage it.
Clegg really is a class act. Thoguht he was a great leader and deserves a huge amount of respect
Entering into a coalition with The Conservatives was the act of a principled, courageous man.
I truly hope history looks favourably upon Nick Clegg for the part he and his party played in the rebuilding of this country from the rubble of the last Labour government.
Has anyone discussed what will happen to Bercow? I can't see him being reinstalled as Speaker.
They're usually returned without a vote. Won't happen, I expect Fabricant to lead the cry of No's and once that happens he'll probably need to stand down. Hoyle will be the favourite to take over and someone upthread suggested McVey to contest his seat. Almost too perfect.
Patrick Dave will not be standing again in 2020. Umunna does not need to win over white van man, he needs to win back the middle class suburbs, women and get a large lead in the growing ethnic vote. After all Joe the Plumber voted for McCain, but Obama still won.
Can we take a moment of silence to remember the sacrifice that Ed's Lectern took over the course of this defeat. Dragged from back garden to back garden up and down the country.
Labour, by the way, got 9.3m votes - 300,000 FEWER than John Major in 1997.
And Labour's total is just 800,000 up on their dismal performance in 2010. Labour got 13.5m in 1997.
The Blair-voting millions have disappeared, perhaps forever.
We have been here before and we know that nothing - not even Tory governments - lasts forever. With the LDs all but wiped out, Labour has an opportunity to build a united, centre-left vote in England and Wales. If Cameron can somehow save the Union, that may then be extended into Scotland - though I suspect SLab will now go its own way and, should it ever return MPs to Westminster in the future, will sit as a separate, though allied, party. Labour is at the start of a hard slog and begins with the disadvantage of having Neolithic trade union leaders to deal with, but there is a way back and at some stage it will be found.
Labour, by the way, got 9.3m votes - 300,000 FEWER than John Major in 1997.
And Labour's total is just 800,000 up on their dismal performance in 2010. Labour got 13.5m in 1997.
The Blair-voting millions have disappeared, perhaps forever.
So much for the amazing Labour GOTV operation that was going to win them the election.
GOTV was also going to win Indyref for Yes and R&S by election for the tories. Last refuge of the scoundrel.
Tory get out the vote consisted of highlighting SNP would have Miliband's arm behind his back.
To b honest the SNP played a blunder be cause they positioned themselves for all outcomes. If Ed had enough seats they could hold to account and Tory coalition / majority they could demand devolution n settlement to better represent the people.
Went to bed at 5.30am and woke up at 10.30am and WOW!! The most positive thing to come out of this in my opinion, is that there has been a massive 'clearout' of all the 'old faces, especially on the Labour side. You can't renew a party with all the old baggage hanging around.
The biggest losers for me are the broadcasters and their mediocre presenters. Every time Kay Burley and Anna Botting (SKY) came on, I just turned the sound off, their faces said it all. I didn't watch much of BBC but I would hazard a guess it was just as dire.
I have just watched Grant Shapps being subjected to two very belligerent interviews by Dermot Murnaghan and Andrew Neil. They seemed more interested in his 'Wiki' problems than anything else.
Not sorry to see Vince Cable go, so much for 'demanding' the Lib Dems have at least 24 ministers!!!
Sorry to see Ed Balls go but better for the Labour party in the long run. One of the few 'characters' in parliament.
Shapps may well be a rather obvious huckster, but credit is due to his targetting of resources. Unlike Labour they were in the right place at the right time.
Best kept out of the front office, but very very good at selling tat!
Dan565 Labour needs Old and New Labour to win, just as the Tories need Thatcherites and One Nation types under FPTP
By the way - nice to see you so devoted to commenting on Wings now. I knew that we couldn't keep you away from the evidence-based analysis there. (And, seriously, good to see more of a mix on any internet politics site.)
Labour, by the way, got 9.3m votes - 300,000 FEWER than John Major in 1997.
And Labour's total is just 800,000 up on their dismal performance in 2010. Labour got 13.5m in 1997.
The Blair-voting millions have disappeared, perhaps forever.
We have been here before and we know that nothing - not even Tory governments - lasts forever. With the LDs all but wiped out, Labour has an opportunity to build a united, centre-left vote in England and Wales. If Cameron can somehow save the Union, that may then be extended into Scotland - though I suspect SLab will now go its own way and, should it ever return MPs to Westminster in the future, will sit as a separate, though allied, party. Labour is at the start of a hard slog and begins with the disadvantage of having Neolithic trade union leaders to deal with, but there is a way back and at some stage it will be found.
I wonder how the Lib Dems have done in the locals, rather better I expect actually.
Pleased to say that as poorly as I did predicting the overall result and the money I lost on that, I will end up very slightly ahead thanks to predicting UKIP would win less than 5 seats thank goodness.
Watford30 By 2020 Osborne has stated the finances should be fixed and most voters will be weary of austerity and willing to invest in public services again. The Tories are likely to have gone into a civil war regardless of the result of the 2017/18 EU referendum and a more rightwing leader will have succeeded Dave. After 10 years it is likely to be time for change if Labour have a moderate, presentable leader
Speedy The EU referendum and constitutional matters related to the UK will certainly form a key part in the next few years
John Major's term will look like a picknick.
I can't see John Redwood launching a leadership bid this time, can you? Or Bill Cash being a permanent fixture on TV?
Next year all those things that made Cameron rise up, will drag him down. Devolution, the EU, the Economy will all make their impact strongly felt.
6 by-elections later and the Tories would be in a minority with Cameron facing not the Referendum party and Redwood, but UKIP and Boris.
God loves a trier. You've only just been owned and already you're wet-dreaming about how you're going to do over Dave.
ITYF Dave has done UKIP etc over. He has won from the middle after explicitly insulting the right. Abetted by UKIPpers he has ensured that there will never be traction for any Labour smear that UKIP = the Tories.
Comments
(Chucks large ginger tomcat at the pigeons...)
Not bad. National polls are more than mood music, if they're actually right.
For me, this has to be a death knell for online panel-based polling in its current form. I suspect that post mortems will show anchoring to have been a problem - that people's past responses to a poll will frame their answers to the next thereby introducing an inertia to their VI responses that is not present in the un-polled population.
There is no LD party left.
The only think that Farron can do is start merger talks with Labour,
and Labour would probably accept it because they need a serious revamp as an English only party.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3w1TzLR2tYc
People who have underestimated Cameron have repeatedly been wrong.
Think mine was Nuneaton tbh. I hadn't even had a punt on the seat.
Disappointment of the night was Huppert from a financial perspective ^^;
Moment of the night was Uncle Vince being smoked. Big roar from the pub on that one.
It was a night of VERY long knives.
Karin Smyth
Colleen Fletcher
Mattehw Pennycook
Tulip Siddiq
Vicky Foxcroft
Richard Burgon
Kate Hollern
Ruth Smeeth
Marie Rimmer
Helen Hayes
Jo Cox
Angela Rayner
Melanie Onn
Judith Cummins
Christina Rees
Peter Dowd
Harry Harpham
Sue Hayman
Keir Starmer
Gerald Jones
Rachel Maskell
Conor McGinn
Kate Osamor
Nick Thomas-Symonds
Holly Lynch-Walker
Naseem Shah
Daniel Zeichner
Margaret Greenwood
Thangam Debbonaire
Chris Matheson
Paula Sherriff
Jess Philips
Imran Hussain
Jeff Smith
Clive Lewis
Peter Kyle
Ruth Cadbury
Neil Coyle
Catherine West
Wes Streeting
Anna Turley
Jo Stevens
Rupa Huq
Julie Cooper
Cat Smith
Retreads
Rob Marris
Joan Ryan
Dawn Butler
Though he will probably replace him with the SNP.
Although I'd bet on Julian Huppert, I'd always felt his chances of bucking the trend were being a bit overstated. The polling looked particularly iffy in Cambridge.
If he had more than that about him, he'd be very successful - but I feel he has no personal substance at all.
I called it then when it declared with a swing to the Tories about half an hour before Nuneaton.
If the Libdems cannot get back to their by-election winning ways, and UKIP could make that very difficult in the next parliament, it is hard to see them regaining many seats in 2020 unless they can double their share of the popular vote.
Result: Con 37%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 13%, Green 4%
So only the Greens significantly off, and UKIP understated a bit as could have been expected given they are a surging party with a shy voter factor.
He's a man who called this right.
In hindsight it was just obvious Labour risked a drubbing, the biggest giveaways were what party in any country has ever polled respectably when that far behind on leadership ratings and economic competence?
However, I just ignored the overwhelming evidence in front of me. These were two, huge, flashing warning signs that I ignored...coupled with the historic issue of Labour's lead being overstated, it was a BIG hole in Labour's propsects....Well done to those with far better foresight!
Cooper: looks, sounds and is nasty; reminds everyone of Ed Balls
Burnham: the Butcher of Mid-Staffs
Jarvis: who? is he in the right union?
Labour have a real problem here in that as Miliblob has gone already they are stuck with picking someone quickly from the existing rabble of ghastly dullards. They are now paying the price for implementing racist and sexist candidate selection policies because they've got a PP padded out with totally useless fluff that is there because happens to have the right plumbing, or head covering, or whatever.
I just do not see how they get off this hook. They are like the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1809 trying to come up with a general who can take on Napoleon and settling on of the family clique. The Archduke Charles was, you know, quite good, but he still got owned by the opposition.
The next Labour PM isn't yet in Parliament. Maybe not even in politics.
The final week of polls was surely a case of quantity over quality, even among the phone pollsters.
Ipsos MORI on polling day got close to the Tories on 36%, but overstated Lab on 35%. ComRes the same day had Con 35%, Lab 34%. , as did online pollster Opinium.
But ComRes on the 5th, had Con 35%, Lab 32%, so not too bad a shout.
The Phone polls last week (week-ending 1st) were a bit better:
His Lordship had Con 36, Lab 30 on 26th April, so not bad at all!
ICM the same day had Con 35, Lab 32.
And Ipsos MORI had Con 35 Lab 30 on the 29th April
And even some of the online polls had Cons on 35:
BMG's maiden poll (27th) was Con 35, Lab 32
YouGov 27th April was Con 35, Lab 34
They repeated this on 29th April
And another 35 v. 34 with Opinium on 30th April.
Kinnock
Now that they are out of contention in almost all their former seats, they will never get that tactical vote and have too few seats for any coalition prospects.
They will definitely lose Sheffield Hallam then.
Also, congrats to the PB community as a whole. I have to say Labour supporters on here have been gracious in defeat to an extent one would never see on a US political site. Thanks to Mike, Robert and TSE for their work to make this such a thoughtful and stimulating site.
Biggest laugh on the night would go to Ed Balls losing his seat – although to give him his due, he made a fine resignation speech.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001019
Just waiting now for St Ives.
It's obvious he's held Ed's 'strategy' in utter contempt for the last 5 years and he's been vindicated in a highly unfortunate manner...
I am not particularly a fan but cometh the hour cometh the man. He will rebuild the LDs as a left of centre party that would be a real alternative to Labour.
The LibDems will revive, but it will take a while.
As for Labour, I'm still far from convinced that this defeat was caused by them being too "left-wing" and I fear that a shift rightwards will send Northern England the same way as Scotland in time.
The biggest losers for me are the broadcasters and their mediocre presenters. Every time Kay Burley and Anna Botting (SKY) came on, I just turned the sound off, their faces said it all. I didn't watch much of BBC but I would hazard a guess it was just as dire.
I have just watched Grant Shapps being subjected to two very belligerent interviews by Dermot Murnaghan and Andrew Neil. They seemed more interested in his 'Wiki' problems than anything else.
Not sorry to see Vince Cable go, so much for 'demanding' the Lib Dems have at least 24 ministers!!!
Sorry to see Ed Balls go but better for the Labour party in the long run. One of the few 'characters' in parliament.
Con are on 36.9 in UK. I don't have GB figure but it will be near to 38.
Lab 9 wards
UKIP 1
11 still to be declared
Well, not from anyone legit.... ;-)
Well they might get Carswell, he will stir the anti-UKIP vote less than Farage while being equally populist but without all the racist bits.
With the next 5 years being all about the EU and devolution, Carswell is the expert on that so they will do ok.
How big a lead does Lab now need for a majority on UNS?
It might well be over 6%.
If so, system is now biased to Con on EXISTING boundaries!
Though on this I think "In" will win. Not because of the merits of the arguments, but because referenda are usually treated as a way to kick a mid term government where it hurts. One of many reasons that referendums are a poor form of decision making.
When is the televised hat eating due to be shown?
Jo Swinson sent the pub very quiet and covering her was quite correct with the result.
Couldn't quite believe how close Carmichael was to going.
I missed that! >:(
I truly hope history looks favourably upon Nick Clegg for the part he and his party played in the rebuilding of this country from the rubble of the last Labour government.
Common theme with Scottish Labour and Lib Dems = Into bed with the Cons = kersplat.
http://www.talent-lab.com/mp/
To b honest the SNP played a blunder be cause they positioned themselves for all outcomes. If Ed had enough seats they could hold to account and Tory coalition / majority they could demand devolution n settlement to better represent the people.
Best kept out of the front office, but very very good at selling tat!
ITYF Dave has done UKIP etc over. He has won from the middle after explicitly insulting the right. Abetted by UKIPpers he has ensured that there will never be traction for any Labour smear that UKIP = the Tories.