Can someone crunch the numbers to find out what swing Labour would now need to get a majority?
It's too early to give a precise answer, but I'd guess around 6%.
Indeed Labour now will need a massive swing to gain a majority. I just can't see how the Tories will lose power as long as the SNP rules scotland.
He needs to implement the review its in the 2010 and 2015 manifesto. But he also needs to start getting his arse up Scotland and find a way to win seats up there.
I would just like to show my appreciation for OGH Mike and the team of moderators for operating the site. I am unsure as to where else you could go to get such a wide range of views, and whilst it can get partisan at times it is still fun reading the threads, and picking up on the unique insights offered by contributors.
Speedy If Labour look likely to win a majority in England and Wales then the SNP threat would not not be an issue eventually the pendulum will turn, Labour need a better leader to exploit it. Blair, Attlee, Wilson all won in England, it can be done.
Meantime after a sweeping night time flanking move, the valiant bastion of 37 was captured with a sudden rush by the forlorn hope and found in the end to be deserted. The victorious Tories stand proud on Hill 38 from which they can view leaderless and dispirited enemies retreating in all directions.
Can someone crunch the numbers to find out what swing Labour would now need to get a majority?
It's too early to give a precise answer, but I'd guess around 6%.
Indeed Labour now will need a massive swing to gain a majority. I just can't see how the Tories will lose power as long as the SNP rules scotland.
He needs to implement the review its in the 2010 and 2015 manifesto. But he also needs to start getting his arse up Scotland and find a way to win seats up there.
He doesn't need to. All he can do is use the SNP to gain seats in the rest of the country.
And by the way turnout was 66%, lower than expected and much lower from what the polls said.
Do Labour need to get back on Murdoch's good side? The consistently negative news narrative has been a constant problem for them, and you need non-hostile newspapers other than the Guardian to get that.
The resignations mean that Cameron will become the first leader of any of the three main established parties to face at least four opposite numbers in both others (not counting temporary leaders), since Stanley Baldwin. And, indeed, the only other.
Speedy Ashcroft had far more than 2 Tory holds, he also got Scotland pretty right
I said outside of Scotland. And look at the Tory-Labour marginals, the LD seats, the UKIP targets, all his numbers were completely wrong by more that double digits.
In the Tory-Labour marginals he got I think only Illford North and Wirral West right. A disgrace.
No free owls today! Tories, what on Earth have you done! Hang your heads in shame.
I was looking forward to a nice tawny called Geoff.
Generally feeling sanguine and not too surprised. This election felt 'wrong' from the start, nowhere near the mood music you expect for a change of govt. Let alone a Labour one.
Will take a lot hard work to dismantle a Tory majority. It's been done before, now my generation get to do it all over again. But I expect a long slog and politics will look quite different at the end of it.
If Cameron implements the boundary review that 6% might become 7 or even 8%.
It is the statutory duty of the Boundary Commissions to submit reports between 1 September and 1 October 2018 (see the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986, s. 3(2)). The draft of an Order in Council giving effect to the new boundaries must be approved by a resolution of both Houses of Parliament (s. 4(3)). The government must therefore survive until the end of 2018 (a year after the Europe referendum) in order to be able to implement the boundary review.
Shapps said they may speed this up.
Obviously that would require an Act of Parliament but it may be worth going for a quick one.
If they do I'm certain they'll go for the amendment whereby Cameron can lay reports directly to the Queen without any votes in Parliament in 2018. They tabled that amendment in 2012 when Lab/LD ganged up to amend the Act to cancel the last review.
Speedy Ashcroft had far more than 2 Tory holds, he also got Scotland pretty right
I said outside of Scotland. And look at the Tory-Labour marginals, the LD seats, the UKIP targets, all his numbers were completely wrong by more that double digits.
In the Tory-Labour marginals he got I think only Illford North and Wirral West right.
Do Labour need to get back on Murdoch's good side? The consistently negative news narrative has been a constant problem for them, and you need non-hostile newspapers other than the Guardian to get that.
Dead-tree press don't matter anymore, or another meme proved to be codswallop?
I know our 'Jockanese troupe of clowns' are not the brightest - :sigh: - but riddle-me-this...:
'Trews' Salmond (not wasted taxes on hiding his failures; no-siree) is quoted as saying that 'the Scottish Lion will roar'. Any fule knows that the Lion is England (and the Scots use an imaginary/joke creature - a Unicorn - as their national symbol). So why is he bigging-up the people that his knuckle-dragging, twin braincells despise...?
No free owls today! Tories, what on Earth have you done! Hang your heads in shame.
I was looking forward to a nice tawny called Geoff.
Generally feeling sanguine and not too surprised. This election felt 'wrong' from the start, nowhere near the mood music you expect for a change of govt. Let alone a Labour one.
Will take a lot hard work to dismantle a Tory majority. It's been done before, now my generation get to do it all over again. But I expect a long slog and politics will look quite different at the end of it.
The resignations mean that Cameron will become the first leader of any of the three main established parties to face at least four opposite numbers in both others (not counting temporary leaders), since Stanley Baldwin. And, indeed, the only other.
Cameron's place in the history books looks like it will be a much better entry today than it did yesterday.
Speedy Ashcroft had far more than 2 Tory holds, he also got Scotland pretty right
I said outside of Scotland. And look at the Tory-Labour marginals, the LD seats, the UKIP targets, all his numbers were completely wrong by more that double digits.
In the Tory-Labour marginals he got I think only Illford North and Wirral West right.
Did he do Ilford North?
Sorry I mixed it up with another London seat Croydon Central, oh and he got Battersea right so that's 3 seats.
Fox I always expected Cameron to remain PM, though not that he would win outright, but in many ways this discussion reminds me of dissection of the Tory Party's future in 2001, Labour's in 1992, the Democrats in 2004 etc, all parties supposedly doomed to eternal opposition, within a decade all were returned to power, the pundulum does turn
Do Labour need to get back on Murdoch's good side? The consistently negative news narrative has been a constant problem for them, and you need non-hostile newspapers other than the Guardian to get that.
Dead-tree press don't matter anymore, or another meme proved to be codswallop?
The thing with the deadtree press is despite falling circulation they still set the agenda for the news channels, and their influence is not proportional to circulation.
Perhaps the problem was that the second question was more seen as an "are you sure?" one, which made the voter needlessly (and falsely) re-think? No one likes to think they've given the wrong answer.
No free owls today! Tories, what on Earth have you done! Hang your heads in shame.
I was looking forward to a nice tawny called Geoff.
Generally feeling sanguine and not too surprised. This election felt 'wrong' from the start, nowhere near the mood music you expect for a change of govt. Let alone a Labour one.
Will take a lot hard work to dismantle a Tory majority. It's been done before, now my generation get to do it all over again. But I expect a long slog and politics will look quite different at the end of it.
Everyone should cut their teeth in a losing seat. Hope he stays involved. Feel strongly that many of the answers to Labours (or the left's) future will come from us Southern Labour types. The party has been fishing from too narrow a gene pool for too long (sometimes literally).
I don't think Labour can deny they lost the aspirational voters in England.
I suppose all elections are won among those 10% of undefinable swing voters in the middle, the ones who Thacher and Blair were so good at garnering votes from, Cameron has now won an impressive amount of them over too. They've given him a majority, a chance to have another five years at it.
10 years ago Labour had Blair, Campbell, Mandelson, Blunkett, John Reid, Jack Straw, David Miliband, James Purnell, Pat Hewitt (the list is almost endless of big hitter after big hitter) who all appealed to the pragmatic centre.
Who was appealing to those voters in this election? Harriet Harman? Chuka Ummuna? Rachel Reeves? Even Burnham seemed to accentuate his northern working class'ness.
Ed Miliband thought he was on to something by moving to the left and getting involved in rent controls and Russell Brand. Retreating to what Hodges continually called his comfort zone.
I think it's clear elections just aren't won on the left or the right, so Labour needs to re-occupy that centre ground. To do so they will need to undergo some serious soul-searching.
Labour also need to be careful not to ride two horses, one in England and one in Scotland. Scottish voters clearly want something more socialist leaning, but angling their pitch towards the Scots will screw it for Labour in England.
Labour will be back and will be a force again, probably soon, but there's no denying the next leader and front bench have a hell of a job on their hands appealing to those aspirational classes again.
Perhaps the problem was that the second question was more seen as an "are you sure?" one, which made the voter needlessly (and falsely) re-think? No one likes to think they've given the wrong answer.
Fox I always expected Cameron to remain PM, though not that he would win outright, but in many ways this discussion reminds me of dissection of the Tory Party's future in 2001, Labour's in 1992, the Democrats in 2004 etc, all parties supposedly doomed to eternal opposition, within a decade all were returned to power, the pundulum does turn
I agree. But it is rarely a swift or easy recovery. Usually two terms, (though we may see this govt syruggle to manage 5 years).
Obviously that would require an Act of Parliament but it may be worth going for a quick one.
If they do I'm certain they'll go for the amendment whereby Cameron can lay reports directly to the Queen without any votes in Parliament in 2018. They tabled that amendment in 2012 when Lab/LD ganged up to amend the Act to cancel the last review.
The Tories will need to be careful that the recommendations don't get tied up in legal challenges, as occurred before the 1983 election (on which, see Regina v Boundary Commission for England [1983] QB 600 (CA)). Interesting times.
Cameron will also have a lot of jobs to doll out amongst the successful Conservative's with the loss of the Lib-dems and retirement of the likes of Hague from parliament.
Perhaps the problem was that the second question was more seen as an "are you sure?" one, which made the voter needlessly (and falsely) re-think? No one likes to think they've given the wrong answer.
The Labour Party postmortems are all overlooking the main reason why they were so far behind the Conservatives. Once I heard, on Have I Got News for You I think it was, that Ed Miliband was transcribed in subtitles as "the Ed Miller Band", I could never take him seriously. Just as I stopped going to church when I head that the Bishop of Bath and Wells had been rendered as the "Bitch of Bath and Wells".
Until Labour get a leader whose name is immune to such mis-hearing, they will never break out of their 30%-32% band.
Well.. I am still shellshocked.. Everything in my body was telling me the polls had to be wrong, but how could you argue against ALL of them.. So I was right in the end but for the wrong reasons, I didn't think the LD's would be so heavily thumped.. And so to business which I hope is not with undue haste..
If NPXMP would like to donate £40 via gift aid to LUPUS UK. I would be very grateful
The TVLF was past it's sell-by date in the 90s - and needed a serious review, but it was kicked into touch, then again a decade later. I can't see them avoiding a big change now.
Having a browse through last nights threads reminiscing on all the twists and turns this election has brought. Also re-reading the piece by http://www.ncpolitics.uk/ - at the time, I was utterly unconvinced by the article because of the continual herding of the polls. Looking back, it was utterly spot on and a great bit of analysis.
I heavily tipped Cheltenham on here on that basis. And we spoke about Bath a lot too.
Both big earners for me.
yup, he still wears that lucky general hat.
It remains to be seen now what he will do with power. He has a lot of things going for him;
- outright majority - limited timeframe in job ( so nothing to lose ) - leaderless opposition ( bar the Scottish eunnuchs ) - economy on the up
It remains to be seen if his near death experience of recent weeks might galvanise him in to doing something worthwhile and leaving a legacy or if he just squanders his time on minutiae again.
The challenge is that as well as these, there is a need to recover the red kippers (who in my initial assessment seem to out number blue kippers), while keeping the BME vote onside and also the green leaning guardianistas, without losing the core vote.
New Labour did it. It needs doing again.
Tony Blair said that:"the Labour party will have only truly changed when it has learned to love Peter Mandelson". He may be a snake, but he is a very capable snake.
Well.. I am still shellshocked.. Everything in my body was telling me the polls had to be wrong, but how could you argue against ALL of them.. So I was right in the end but for the wrong reasons, I didn't think the LD's would be so heavily thumped.. And so to business which I hope is not with undue haste..
If NPXMP would like to donate £40 via gift aid to LUPUS UK. I would be very grateful
Must be an outlier...
Oh, wait!
I think last night's "National Poll" seriously overstated the Tories and understated Labour!
Labour also need to be careful not to ride two horses, one in England and one in Scotland. Scottish voters clearly want something more socialist leaning, but angling their pitch towards the Scots will screw it for Labour in England.
Might Labour consider spinning off Scottish Labour and letting them have their own manifesto etc.
It seems like scots want a distinctly scottish voice, and that's one way to achieve it. And it'd allow Scottish Labour to make moves to the left.
Of course, it'd also allow the Tories even more opportunity to scare people with the scottish spectre.
Cameron will also have a lot of jobs to doll out amongst the successful Conservative's with the loss of the Lib-dems and retirement of the likes of Hague from parliament.
A good point that is.
The Tories were very disciplined in the run up to the GE despite the unlikelihood of a majority. Cameron can reward people for that now.
Just filled in a long YouGov that asked lots of questions about how I voted, why, and how interested I am in politics (did you put up a poster, how many days last week did you talk about politics etc)
Labour also need to be careful not to ride two horses, one in England and one in Scotland. Scottish voters clearly want something more socialist leaning, but angling their pitch towards the Scots will screw it for Labour in England.
Might Labour consider spinning off Scottish Labour and letting them have their own manifesto etc.
It seems like scots want a distinctly scottish voice, and that's one way to achieve it. And it'd allow Scottish Labour to make moves to the left.
Of course, it'd also allow the Tories even more opportunity to scare people with the scottish spectre.
Mr Murphy's chums (presumably) booked a separate Scottish Labour Party-type trade mark some months ago. I wonder.
Mystig Meg of UK politics? Clegg 5th May ""We all know that no-one is going to win the election outright on Thursday, despite what Ed Miliband and David Cameron says."
Well.. I am still shellshocked.. Everything in my body was telling me the polls had to be wrong, but how could you argue against ALL of them.. So I was right in the end but for the wrong reasons, I didn't think the LD's would be so heavily thumped.. And so to business which I hope is not with undue haste..
If NPXMP would like to donate £40 via gift aid to LUPUS UK. I would be very grateful
Must be an outlier...
Oh, wait!
I think last night's "National Poll" seriously overstated the Tories and understated Labour!
Have you had an apology from the polling companies yet Sunil ? Your elbow suffered from "GIGO"
Just filled in a long YouGov that asked lots of questions about how I voted, why, and how interested I am in politics (did you put up a poster, how many days last week did you talk about politics etc)
Looks like the postmortem is beginning.
I think I'm so atypical and switchy in vote behaviour that I'm fairly useless on a panel tbh, but hey ho.
Fox I always expected Cameron to remain PM, though not that he would win outright, but in many ways this discussion reminds me of dissection of the Tory Party's future in 2001, Labour's in 1992, the Democrats in 2004 etc, all parties supposedly doomed to eternal opposition, within a decade all were returned to power, the pundulum does turn
Labour is much further from the winning post now though than they were in 1992. They had 271 seats then. (off the point but Kinnock's Labour got more votes in 1992 than Cameron's Conservatives this time).
Election 2015: Who is going to win the 2015 general election?
The exit poll will be out very shortly, and then we’ll have a good idea (or a false one). But first, here’s the game. No one is going to win an overall majority, so it’s all about who can cobble together 323 seats – the number needed for a majority – by banding together with other parties.
Second, Labour seem the most likely to win that game. May2015’s Poll of Polls, which has averaged all the latest polls since September, has finally finished adding numbers up. It’s conclusion? The Tories are going to win 33.8 per cent of the vote, and Labour are going to win 33.7.
This election is as close as everyone has long advertised. And it will close on seats too. May2015’s model predicts the Tories will win 273 seats, with Labour on 268. But, remember, that isn’t the game. Who can rely on other parties to vote with them, and get to 323 seats?
Well.. I am still shellshocked.. Everything in my body was telling me the polls had to be wrong, but how could you argue against ALL of them.. So I was right in the end but for the wrong reasons, I didn't think the LD's would be so heavily thumped.. And so to business which I hope is not with undue haste..
If NPXMP would like to donate £40 via gift aid to LUPUS UK. I would be very grateful
Must be an outlier...
Oh, wait!
I think last night's "National Poll" seriously overstated the Tories and understated Labour!
Have you had an apology from the polling companies yet Sunil ? Your elbow suffered from "GIGO"
Although in the end they did underestimate the Tory lead by 3% or more, I really thought the phone companies were on to something.
The Phone pollsters' ELBOW leads in recent weeks were:
26th April = Con 2.8% lead 1st May = Con 2.7% lead
but this last 7 days they seem to have messed up 7th May = Con 0.5% lead
And remember when the Tories got their only really significant lead in the full ELBOW, 0.4% on Easter Sunday? That week the Phone pollsters had the Tories 3.2% ahead.
And now on the BBC...back from 5 minutes of VE service....back to navel grazing about Labour....
Funny that - I just watched 40 minutes of BBC VE coverage. Must be a different Beeb!
BBC News...they spent no more than 5 mins (Sky News covering it)...it was far more important to hear John Mann and Jacqui Smith talk to Marr about Labour.
As predicted, the claims of high turnout were bollocks outside Scotland. I never understand why tellers' reports of polling stations being "busier than expected" have any meaning. Unless they've worked in the same polling booth for at least the 2 previous GEs, how could they know what "unusually high" looked like?
Comments
All about 'people south of the border cheering on the SNP'!
56 SNP can sit in a little gathering on the benches at Westminster and be totally ignored!
In the pub, with a glass of your favourite beverage?
Meantime after a sweeping night time flanking move, the valiant bastion of 37 was captured with a sudden rush by the forlorn hope and found in the end to be deserted. The victorious Tories stand proud on Hill 38 from which they can view leaderless and dispirited enemies retreating in all directions.
All he can do is use the SNP to gain seats in the rest of the country.
And by the way turnout was 66%, lower than expected and much lower from what the polls said.
Boy's got form...
The Tories are in charge and the SNP can just huff and puff for most of the next 5yrs!
John Pugh in Southport.
Ceredigion is held by Mark Williams.
And look at the Tory-Labour marginals, the LD seats, the UKIP targets, all his numbers were completely wrong by more that double digits.
In the Tory-Labour marginals he got I think only Illford North and Wirral West right.
A disgrace.
Will take a lot hard work to dismantle a Tory majority. It's been done before, now my generation get to do it all over again. But I expect a long slog and politics will look quite different at the end of it.
Obviously that would require an Act of Parliament but it may be worth going for a quick one.
If they do I'm certain they'll go for the amendment whereby Cameron can lay reports directly to the Queen without any votes in Parliament in 2018. They tabled that amendment in 2012 when Lab/LD ganged up to amend the Act to cancel the last review.
As it does around the world.
Both big earners for me.
Ilford North and Carshalton called for the Tories by Dale
Kingston and Twickenham called for the yellow peril.
Perhaps the problem was that the second question was more seen as an "are you sure?" one, which made the voter needlessly (and falsely) re-think? No one likes to think they've given the wrong answer.
May even get involved again myself somehow.
I suppose all elections are won among those 10% of undefinable swing voters in the middle, the ones who Thacher and Blair were so good at garnering votes from, Cameron has now won an impressive amount of them over too. They've given him a majority, a chance to have another five years at it.
10 years ago Labour had Blair, Campbell, Mandelson, Blunkett, John Reid, Jack Straw, David Miliband, James Purnell, Pat Hewitt (the list is almost endless of big hitter after big hitter) who all appealed to the pragmatic centre.
Who was appealing to those voters in this election? Harriet Harman? Chuka Ummuna? Rachel Reeves? Even Burnham seemed to accentuate his northern working class'ness.
Ed Miliband thought he was on to something by moving to the left and getting involved in rent controls and Russell Brand. Retreating to what Hodges continually called his comfort zone.
I think it's clear elections just aren't won on the left or the right, so Labour needs to re-occupy that centre ground. To do so they will need to undergo some serious soul-searching.
Labour also need to be careful not to ride two horses, one in England and one in Scotland. Scottish voters clearly want something more socialist leaning, but angling their pitch towards the Scots will screw it for Labour in England.
Labour will be back and will be a force again, probably soon, but there's no denying the next leader and front bench have a hell of a job on their hands appealing to those aspirational classes again.
Good day to all you fellow pb-ers!!
Lord A may need to rethink his polling.
Assuming he carries on.
ComGov
YouRes
Ipsos PANEL
Moribase
TCM
BNS
IMG
Lord Surcroft
Ashvation
Opulus
Popinium
Until Labour get a leader whose name is immune to such mis-hearing, they will never break out of their 30%-32% band.
Oh, wait!
Lab down 2 council and +4 councillors
Lid down 1 council and -38 councillors
UKIP +22 councillors
Early weekend.
It remains to be seen now what he will do with power. He has a lot of things going for him;
- outright majority
- limited timeframe in job ( so nothing to lose )
- leaderless opposition ( bar the Scottish eunnuchs )
- economy on the up
It remains to be seen if his near death experience of recent weeks might galvanise him in to doing something worthwhile and leaving a legacy or if he just squanders his time on minutiae again.
I agree what you say about aspirational voters.
The challenge is that as well as these, there is a need to recover the red kippers (who in my initial assessment seem to out number blue kippers), while keeping the BME vote onside and also the green leaning guardianistas, without losing the core vote.
New Labour did it. It needs doing again.
Tony Blair said that:"the Labour party will have only truly changed when it has learned to love Peter Mandelson". He may be a snake, but he is a very capable snake.
It seems like scots want a distinctly scottish voice, and that's one way to achieve it. And it'd allow Scottish Labour to make moves to the left.
Of course, it'd also allow the Tories even more opportunity to scare people with the scottish spectre.
The Tories were very disciplined in the run up to the GE despite the unlikelihood of a majority. Cameron can reward people for that now.
Looks like the postmortem is beginning.
England = CON
Wales = LAB
Scotland = SNP
NI = DUP*
*SF lose their poll-topping position of 2010.
Clegg 5th May
""We all know that no-one is going to win the election outright on Thursday, despite what Ed Miliband and David Cameron says."
The SNP are going to have to ask Mr Cameron nicely if he might consider their views.
The football indicator holds good.
Election 2015: Who is going to win the 2015 general election?
The exit poll will be out very shortly, and then we’ll have a good idea (or a false one). But first, here’s the game. No one is going to win an overall majority, so it’s all about who can cobble together 323 seats – the number needed for a majority – by banding together with other parties.
Second, Labour seem the most likely to win that game. May2015’s Poll of Polls, which has averaged all the latest polls since September, has finally finished adding numbers up. It’s conclusion? The Tories are going to win 33.8 per cent of the vote, and Labour are going to win 33.7.
This election is as close as everyone has long advertised. And it will close on seats too. May2015’s model predicts the Tories will win 273 seats, with Labour on 268. But, remember, that isn’t the game. Who can rely on other parties to vote with them, and get to 323 seats?
The Phone pollsters' ELBOW leads in recent weeks were:
26th April = Con 2.8% lead
1st May = Con 2.7% lead
but this last 7 days they seem to have messed up
7th May = Con 0.5% lead
And remember when the Tories got their only really significant lead in the full ELBOW, 0.4% on Easter Sunday? That week the Phone pollsters had the Tories 3.2% ahead.
Um, is that Victory Over Ed Day?
isam can you confirm you're not a Nigerian prince ?