Labour, by the way, got 9.3m votes - 300,000 FEWER than John Major in 1997.
And Labour's total is just 800,000 up on their dismal performance in 2010. Labour got 13.5m in 1997.
The Blair-voting millions have disappeared, perhaps forever.
We have been here before and we know that nothing - not even Tory governments - lasts forever. With the LDs all but wiped out, Labour has an opportunity to build a united, centre-left vote in England and Wales. If Cameron can somehow save the Union, that may then be extended into Scotland - though I suspect SLab will now go its own way and, should it ever return MPs to Westminster in the future, will sit as a separate, though allied, party. Labour is at the start of a hard slog and begins with the disadvantage of having Neolithic trade union leaders to deal with, but there is a way back and at some stage it will be found.
The question is whether the inherent contradictions in the Labour big tent will become untenable. I don't see how they can win back UKIP voters while keeping the Guardianites on board. It wouldn't surprise me to see a rerun of the SDP split in some form.
Unfortunately I hear that the YouGov guys are otherwise engaged. They have been summoned to go and see Murdoch....and "politely" asked WTF HAVE I BEEN PAYING YOU CHUMPS ALL THIS MONEY FOR....YOUR FIRED
Online polling will be a thing of the past. But seriously all pollsters need to ditch D/K reallocation and exclusions, also they need to discount turnout among those employed by 20%.
Constituency specific questions also need to be ditched, along with seat forecasts.
All politics is national and UNS is still supreme.
Unfortunately I hear that the YouGov guys are otherwise engaged. They have been summoned to go and see Murdoch....and "politely" asked WTF HAVE I BEEN PAYING YOU CHUMPS ALL THIS MONEY FOR....YOUR FIRED
YouGov spearheaded the DUEMA initiative - if they'd got it right ed would have been toppled two years back - and won this for the tories.
Has anyone discussed what will happen to Bercow? I can't see him being reinstalled as Speaker.
They're usually returned without a vote. Won't happen, I expect Fabricant to lead the cry of No's and once that happens he'll probably need to stand down. Hoyle will be the favourite to take over and someone upthread suggested McVey to contest his seat. Almost too perfect.
That would be delicious! Even better would be if he wasn't elevated to the Lords
Bloody hell. Just checked the results in Cornwall. The Tory victories were huge.
Previous marginals now have Tory majorities of 6000-8000.
The Tory majority in Truro is.... 14,000.
A lot of these results bodes well for the next election, very defendable barring unforseen circumstances. A 3rd term in office is a mighty achievement with a small majority but they've certainly got some padding in these seats now. Not that we should get too far ahead of ourselves.
What an interesting election for my first PB Dabble. About £400 staked, about £40 down at the end.
Wins: SNP seats, narrow arb - West Wirral at 5%, Gloria to win Ashfield at 1:4. Losses: Lab Most Seats, Composition of New Govt - didn't cover Tory Maj., UKIP to win Basildon S & Thurrock, Lab to win Croydon Central. Last one stake was laid off.
Mistakes: Not laying off UKIP in Basildon. Missing Tory Maj available at good odds.
Now I need a couple of spreadsheets for logging / book tracking and calculations, and a separate bank account.
Looking at the (final-1) %ges the Labour vote went up in percentages more than the Tory vote did - and yet Labour lost. Someone, not a million miles away from electoralcalculus, will have to work out whether Labour voter efficiency has taken a very severe knock (or the tory one has improved substantially.)
Just the result in Scotland would have achieved that to a large extent. But yes, Labour piled up useless additional votes in their safe seats in the North and London, not where they needed them in the battleground seats, primarily the Midlands.
Unfortunately I hear that the YouGov guys are otherwise engaged. They have been summoned to go and see Murdoch....and "politely" asked WTF HAVE I BEEN PAYING YOU CHUMPS ALL THIS MONEY FOR....YOUR FIRED
About Truro - I seriously couldn't understand the 1-4 there available for yonks. It looked too good to be true, and yet it REALLY wasn't. Even a half decent night for the Lib Dems wouldn't have seen this go yellow.
Council results starting to roll in..looks like another bad day for the LibDems.. By the way I just noticed the Watford GE result.There was a lot of talk from OGH about Dorothy Thornhill but she got Absolutley thumped..
Labour really need to keep the likes of her and Bad Al off the telly. Bad Al thinks he is so big and clever and that he is doing a great job sticking it to the Tories, I think he has the opposite effect.
Not sure what will happen re the Speaker. Having got their fingers burned, they may leave Bercow alone, especially seeing he has lost all his 'Labour mates.'
Jarvis is even more left-wing than EdM, he looks a bit lightweight to me.
I hope Labour learn their lesson about running 'a class warfare/politics of envy campaign. I think the public have moved on from this and it is proved now beyond a shadow of doub, that it doesn't work.
Patrick Why? Cameron is an old Etonian, Oxbridge PR man, Blair was a slick Public school educated lawyer, both succeeded state educated PMs. It is not where you come from that matters so much as what you say. I think that list would be a very good list and all of those figures could be a future Labour PM, moderate, telegenic and reasonable. Umunna Britain's first black PM, Cooper Labour's first woman PM, Burnham a northener, Jarvis ex army. Umunna and Jarvis were not even elected until 2010/2011
Umunna: narcissistic oily creep who edits his own wikipedia page Cooper: looks, sounds and is nasty; reminds everyone of Ed Balls Burnham: the Butcher of Mid-Staffs Jarvis: who? is he in the right union?
Labour have a real problem here in that as Miliblob has gone already they are stuck with picking someone quickly from the existing rabble of ghastly dullards. They are now paying the price for implementing racist and sexist candidate selection policies because they've got a PP padded out with totally useless fluff that is there because happens to have the right plumbing, or head covering, or whatever.
I just do not see how they get off this hook. They are like the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1809 trying to come up with a general who can take on Napoleon and settling on of the family clique. The Archduke Charles was, you know, quite good, but he still got owned by the opposition.
The next Labour PM isn't yet in Parliament. Maybe not even in politics.
Labour, by the way, got 9.3m votes - 300,000 FEWER than John Major in 1997.
And Labour's total is just 800,000 up on their dismal performance in 2010. Labour got 13.5m in 1997.
The Blair-voting millions have disappeared, perhaps forever.
We have been here before and we know that nothing - not even Tory governments - lasts forever. With the LDs all but wiped out, Labour has an opportunity to build a united, centre-left vote in England and Wales. If Cameron can somehow save the Union, that may then be extended into Scotland - though I suspect SLab will now go its own way and, should it ever return MPs to Westminster in the future, will sit as a separate, though allied, party. Labour is at the start of a hard slog and begins with the disadvantage of having Neolithic trade union leaders to deal with, but there is a way back and at some stage it will be found.
I wonder how the Lib Dems have done in the locals, rather better I expect actually.
I hope that have not lost 85% of their councillors as well as 85% of their MPs!
What was everyone's most staggering result of the night ?
No one event in particular, just a gradual realisation that the exit polls may just be correct, as one success followed another.
Biggest laugh on the night would go to Ed Balls losing his seat – although to give him his due, he made a fine resignation speech.
I actually feel a bit sorry for Balls (no, really!)
It's obvious he's held Ed's 'strategy' in utter contempt for the last 5 years and he's been vindicated in a highly unfortunate manner...
As I said at the time, Ed Balls would have made a very good caretaker leader during Labour's spell in opposition. - Miliband has proved to be every bit the desaster Henry G said he'd be.
Unfortunately I hear that the YouGov guys are otherwise engaged. They have been summoned to go and see Murdoch....and "politely" asked WTF HAVE I BEEN PAYING YOU CHUMPS ALL THIS MONEY FOR....YOUR FIRED
Online polling will be a thing of the past. But seriously all pollsters need to ditch D/K reallocation and exclusions, also they need to discount turnout among those employed by 20%.
Constituency specific questions also need to be ditched, along with seat forecasts.
All politics is national and UNS is still supreme.
You'd have thought after the last election when this board was obssesed with "its different in the marginal" bollocks, people would have learnt. But no the bollocks was repeated endlessly on here again. Mr Francis if your on here in five years times you will hear the same bollocks all over again.
Watford30 By 2020 Osborne has stated the finances should be fixed and most voters will be weary of austerity and willing to invest in public services again. The Tories are likely to have gone into a civil war regardless of the result of the 2017/18 EU referendum and a more rightwing leader will have succeeded Dave. After 10 years it is likely to be time for change if Labour have a moderate, presentable leader
Labour has a 100 seat shortfall to make up. Elections with that many gains are few and far between. A Labour majority is not on the cards unless an improbably friendly relationship with the Nats develops quickly.
Labour, by the way, got 9.3m votes - 300,000 FEWER than John Major in 1997.
And Labour's total is just 800,000 up on their dismal performance in 2010. Labour got 13.5m in 1997.
The Blair-voting millions have disappeared, perhaps forever.
We have been here before and we know that nothing - not even Tory governments - lasts forever. With the LDs all but wiped out, Labour has an opportunity to build a united, centre-left vote in England and Wales. If Cameron can somehow save the Union, that may then be extended into Scotland - though I suspect SLab will now go its own way and, should it ever return MPs to Westminster in the future, will sit as a separate, though allied, party. Labour is at the start of a hard slog and begins with the disadvantage of having Neolithic trade union leaders to deal with, but there is a way back and at some stage it will be found.
I wonder how the Lib Dems have done in the locals, rather better I expect actually.
Labour, by the way, got 9.3m votes - 300,000 FEWER than John Major in 1997.
And Labour's total is just 800,000 up on their dismal performance in 2010. Labour got 13.5m in 1997.
The Blair-voting millions have disappeared, perhaps forever.
We have been here before and we know that nothing - not even Tory governments - lasts forever. With the LDs all but wiped out, Labour has an opportunity to build a united, centre-left vote in England and Wales. If Cameron can somehow save the Union, that may then be extended into Scotland - though I suspect SLab will now go its own way and, should it ever return MPs to Westminster in the future, will sit as a separate, though allied, party. Labour is at the start of a hard slog and begins with the disadvantage of having Neolithic trade union leaders to deal with, but there is a way back and at some stage it will be found.
I wonder how the Lib Dems have done in the locals, rather better I expect actually.
I hope that have not lost 85% of their councillors as well as 85% of their MPs!
I can't make up my mind, but am generally pessimistic. This feels like a classic Tory election. I can see three possible scenarios from most likely to least
(1) Everything has been overhyped. The SLab/LD collapse is limited. 40 seats change hand in England. Things basically carry on as they were with a much reduced Coalition majority.
(2) Labour do enough to get the Tories out. Anti-Tory tactical voting pattern dominates, boosting Labour (unwinding the Clegg effect of 2010). Labour/LD win where they challenge Tories.
(3) Canadian style tipping point reached, total SLab/LD collapse. Tory small majority based on hoovering up all LD seats and limiting losses to Labour through better turnout (a la 1992)
Unfortunately I hear that the YouGov guys are otherwise engaged. They have been summoned to go and see Murdoch....and "politely" asked WTF HAVE I BEEN PAYING YOU CHUMPS ALL THIS MONEY FOR....YOUR FIRED
Online polling will be a thing of the past. But seriously all pollsters need to ditch D/K reallocation and exclusions, also they need to discount turnout among those employed by 20%.
Constituency specific questions also need to be ditched, along with seat forecasts.
All politics is national and UNS is still supreme.
You'd have thought after the last election when this board was obssesed with "its different in the marginal" bollocks, people would have learnt. But no the bollocks was repeated endlessly on here again. Mr Francis if your on here in five years times you will hear the same bollocks all over again.
My betting success on LDs and UKIP were based on exactly that principle. Local factors are almost always outweighed by national ones.
I know our 'Jockanese troupe of clowns' are not the brightest - :sigh: - but riddle-me-this...:
'Trews' Salmond (not wasted taxes on hiding his failures; no-siree) is quoted as saying that 'the Scottish Lion will roar'. Any fule knows that the Lion is England (and the Scots use an imaginary/joke creature - a Unicorn - as their national symbol). So why is he bigging-up the people that his knuckle-dragging, twin braincells despise...?
Council results starting to roll in..looks like another bad day for the LibDems.. By the way I just noticed the Watford GE result.There was a lot of talk from OGH about Dorothy Thornhill but she got Absolutley thumped..
A personal vote only goes so far, particularly if you aren't the incumbent. Then it most likely doesn't go very far at all.
Flick Drummond trounced Gerald Vernon Jackson too.
Speedy The EU referendum and constitutional matters related to the UK will certainly form a key part in the next few years
John Major's term will look like a picknick.
I can't see John Redwood launching a leadership bid this time, can you? Or Bill Cash being a permanent fixture on TV?
Next year all those things that made Cameron rise up, will drag him down. Devolution, the EU, the Economy will all make their impact strongly felt.
6 by-elections later and the Tories would be in a minority with Cameron facing not the Referendum party and Redwood, but UKIP and Boris.
God loves a trier. You've only just been owned and already you're wet-dreaming about how you're going to do over Dave.
ITYF Dave has done UKIP etc over. He has won from the middle after explicitly insulting the right. Abetted by UKIPpers he has ensured that there will never be traction for any Labour smear that UKIP = the Tories.
I hardly see how 13% of the votes is "doing UKIP over". The only reason we were protected from the UKIP surge is because we protected our flank from the right with the EU referendum, the immigration pledge being repeated and English votes.
Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.
I am saddened to hear you sound so bitter Marcus.
This "pointless political party" help to secure the nations future in 2010 and formed an integral part of one of the best post war governments the country has enjoyed.
A little grace might have been more appropriate Marcus. Sadly you couldn't manage it.
I don't remember the Lib Dems *ever* showing grace when they actually were 'winning here' so I am afraid they (and you) will just have to sup it up. Their trademark style of very personally focused negative campaigning won't be back and politics will be the better for it.
Well I suppose at least for the last five years PB hasn't had to sup up from the bitter cup you've displayed today.
Most PB Tories appreciate the role the LibDems have played in government but you lack the style, intelligence and magnanimity that your colleagues show. Instead your posts today are filled with cheap and trite partisan bile.
Well.. I am still shellshocked.. Everything in my body was telling me the polls had to be wrong, but how could you argue against ALL of them.. So I was right in the end but for the wrong reasons, I didn't think the LD's would be so heavily thumped.. And so to business which I hope is not with undue haste..
If NPXMP would like to donate £40 via gift aid to LUPUS UK. I would be very grateful
Unfortunately I hear that the YouGov guys are otherwise engaged. They have been summoned to go and see Murdoch....and "politely" asked WTF HAVE I BEEN PAYING YOU CHUMPS ALL THIS MONEY FOR....YOUR FIRED
Online polling will be a thing of the past. But seriously all pollsters need to ditch D/K reallocation and exclusions, also they need to discount turnout among those employed by 20%.
Constituency specific questions also need to be ditched, along with seat forecasts.
All politics is national and UNS is still supreme.
You'd have thought after the last election when this board was obssesed with "its different in the marginal" bollocks, people would have learnt. But no the bollocks was repeated endlessly on here again. Mr Francis if your on here in five years times you will hear the same bollocks all over again.
Lord Ashcroft particularly has hit the reputation of polling, out of 150 constituency polls in England and Wales, he hit the result in I think 2.
If I were the next Labour leader, I'd be looking at how to combine Blue Labour themes with One Nation themes. My working title would be the Social Contract.
Would that involve a contract on rock for every garden?
Well it's a very long time since I have posted on here; I have been lurking for about the last 4 years but today I can't resist. What a joyous night it's been, the Lib Dems - Britain's most pointless political party ever - have finally been found out as the two faced hypocrites that they are and routed from the South & South West. My successor in Torbay has done in two short years to do what we didn't manage in ten - ousting Adrian Sanders; so huge respect and admiration to him and the team. Labour in meltdown and a UKIP complete failure to launch; I am happier than a dog with two tails today.
I am saddened to hear you sound so bitter Marcus.
This "pointless political party" help to secure the nations future in 2010 and formed an integral part of one of the best post war governments the country has enjoyed.
A little grace might have been more appropriate Marcus. Sadly you couldn't manage it.
I don't remember the Lib Dems *ever* showing grace when they actually were 'winning here' so I am afraid they (and you) will just have to sup it up. Their trademark style of very personally focused negative campaigning won't be back and politics will be the better for it.
Well I suppose at least for the last five years PB hasn't had to sup up from the bitter cup you've displayed today.
Most PB Tories appreciate the role the LibDems have played in government but you lack the style, intelligence and magnanimity that your colleagues show. Instead your posts today are filled with cheap and trite partisan bile.
In retrospect, maybe Ed's decision to cuddle up with Russell Brand wasn't such a great idea from the point of view of trying to win over floating voters.
I know our 'Jockanese troupe of clowns' are not the brightest - :sigh: - but riddle-me-this...:
'Trews' Salmond (not wasted taxes on hiding his failures; no-siree) is quoted as saying that 'the Scottish Lion will roar'. Any fule knows that the Lion is England (and the Scots use an imaginary/joke creature - a Unicorn - as their national symbol). So why is he bigging-up the people that his knuckle-dragging, twin braincells despise...?
I honestly didn't expect Stephen Lloyd to lose in Eastbourne. The local LDs say they chose him because he's their version of a Tory. He's like a super duper councillor and still lost.
Council results starting to roll in..looks like another bad day for the LibDems.. By the way I just noticed the Watford GE result.There was a lot of talk from OGH about Dorothy Thornhill but she got Absolutley thumped..
A personal vote only goes so far, particularly if you aren't the incumbent. Then it most likely doesn't go very far at all.
Flick Drummond trounced Gerald Vernon Jackson too.
Unfortunately I hear that the YouGov guys are otherwise engaged. They have been summoned to go and see Murdoch....and "politely" asked WTF HAVE I BEEN PAYING YOU CHUMPS ALL THIS MONEY FOR....YOUR FIRED
Online polling will be a thing of the past. But seriously all pollsters need to ditch D/K reallocation and exclusions, also they need to discount turnout among those employed by 20%.
Constituency specific questions also need to be ditched, along with seat forecasts.
All politics is national and UNS is still supreme.
You'd have thought after the last election when this board was obssesed with "its different in the marginal" bollocks, people would have learnt. But no the bollocks was repeated endlessly on here again. Mr Francis if your on here in five years times you will hear the same bollocks all over again.
Lord Ashcroft particularly has hit the reputation of polling, out of 150 constituency polls in England and Wales, he hit the result in I think 2.
Unfortunately I hear that the YouGov guys are otherwise engaged. They have been summoned to go and see Murdoch....and "politely" asked WTF HAVE I BEEN PAYING YOU CHUMPS ALL THIS MONEY FOR....YOUR FIRED
Online polling will be a thing of the past. But seriously all pollsters need to ditch D/K reallocation and exclusions, also they need to discount turnout among those employed by 20%.
Constituency specific questions also need to be ditched, along with seat forecasts.
All politics is national and UNS is still supreme.
You'd have thought after the last election when this board was obssesed with "its different in the marginal" bollocks, people would have learnt. But no the bollocks was repeated endlessly on here again. Mr Francis if your on here in five years times you will hear the same bollocks all over again.
Lord Ashcroft particularly has hit the reputation of polling, out of 150 constituency polls in England and Wales, he hit the result in I think 2.
He was behind the idea that the LD will hold.
And yet his national poll of 26th April (ie. 11 days ago) went like this:
Unfortunately I hear that the YouGov guys are otherwise engaged. They have been summoned to go and see Murdoch....and "politely" asked WTF HAVE I BEEN PAYING YOU CHUMPS ALL THIS MONEY FOR....YOUR FIRED
Online polling will be a thing of the past. But seriously all pollsters need to ditch D/K reallocation and exclusions, also they need to discount turnout among those employed by 20%.
Constituency specific questions also need to be ditched, along with seat forecasts.
All politics is national and UNS is still supreme.
You'd have thought after the last election when this board was obssesed with "its different in the marginal" bollocks, people would have learnt. But no the bollocks was repeated endlessly on here again. Mr Francis if your on here in five years times you will hear the same bollocks all over again.
Lord Ashcroft particularly has hit the reputation of polling, out of 150 constituency polls in England and Wales, he hit the result in I think 2.
Speedy The EU referendum and constitutional matters related to the UK will certainly form a key part in the next few years
John Major's term will look like a picknick.
I can't see John Redwood launching a leadership bid this time, can you? Or Bill Cash being a permanent fixture on TV?
Next year all those things that made Cameron rise up, will drag him down. Devolution, the EU, the Economy will all make their impact strongly felt.
6 by-elections later and the Tories would be in a minority with Cameron facing not the Referendum party and Redwood, but UKIP and Boris.
God loves a trier. You've only just been owned and already you're wet-dreaming about how you're going to do over Dave.
ITYF Dave has done UKIP etc over. He has won from the middle after explicitly insulting the right. Abetted by UKIPpers he has ensured that there will never be traction for any Labour smear that UKIP = the Tories.
I hardly see how 13% of the votes is "doing UKIP over". The only reason we were protected from the UKIP surge is because we protected our flank from the right with the EU referendum, the immigration pledge being repeated and English votes.
I tend to agree. FPTP has been very cruel to UKIP. But they have nearly 4 million votes. They now pose a big threat to Labour's revival.
Well.. I am still shellshocked.. Everything in my body was telling me the polls had to be wrong, but how could you argue against ALL of them.. So I was right in the end but for the wrong reasons, I didn't think the LD's would be so heavily thumped.. And so to business which I hope is not with undue haste..
If NPXMP would like to donate £40 via gift aid to LUPUS UK. I would be very grateful
Unfortunately I hear that the YouGov guys are otherwise engaged. They have been summoned to go and see Murdoch....and "politely" asked WTF HAVE I BEEN PAYING YOU CHUMPS ALL THIS MONEY FOR....YOUR FIRED
Online polling will be a thing of the past. But seriously all pollsters need to ditch D/K reallocation and exclusions, also they need to discount turnout among those employed by 20%.
Constituency specific questions also need to be ditched, along with seat forecasts.
All politics is national and UNS is still supreme.
You'd have thought after the last election when this board was obssesed with "its different in the marginal" bollocks, people would have learnt. But no the bollocks was repeated endlessly on here again. Mr Francis if your on here in five years times you will hear the same bollocks all over again.
Lord Ashcroft particularly has hit the reputation of polling, out of 150 constituency polls in England and Wales, he hit the result in I think 2.
He was behind the idea that the LD will hold.
He got 2 wow, better than I thought (-;
It occurs to me that if he had filled out the surveys manually completely randomly, he would have got more right.
About Truro - I seriously couldn't understand the 1-4 there available for yonks. It looked too good to be true, and yet it REALLY wasn't. Even a half decent night for the Lib Dems wouldn't have seen this go yellow.
Not many kippers in Cornwall despite the hype. Only 14.5% in Cambourne and Redruth, the kipper target in Cornwall.
What did his Question 1 results say, as opposed to the Q2 ones everyone chose to focus on?
Similarly, what would Yougov have projected if it hadn't re-weighted to a phoney Labour lead in early April?
Individuals making false assumptions about 'constituency' questions being more valuable and backing the inaccuracy in their own polls when the phones were saying something different is the problem here.
The 2010:2015 YG ratios were pointing at 36-37 at the end of March until they changed tack.
People making arbitrary choices rather than following the numbers has led to headline inaccuracy.
I know our 'Jockanese troupe of clowns' are not the brightest - :sigh: - but riddle-me-this...:
'Trews' Salmond (not wasted taxes on hiding his failures; no-siree) is quoted as saying that 'the Scottish Lion will roar'. Any fule knows that the Lion is England (and the Scots use an imaginary/joke creature - a Unicorn - as their national symbol). So why is he bigging-up the people that his knuckle-dragging, twin braincells despise...?
Well.. I am still shellshocked.. Everything in my body was telling me the polls had to be wrong, but how could you argue against ALL of them.. So I was right in the end but for the wrong reasons, I didn't think the LD's would be so heavily thumped.. And so to business which I hope is not with undue haste..
If NPXMP would like to donate £40 via gift aid to LUPUS UK. I would be very grateful
I believe Peter from Putney owes me some money too, what is the procedure?
Are the Tories basically boycotting the BBC coverage?
I had it on for hours and hours last night and hardly saw any Tory presence spinning in person. Gove was on for an hour at the start and I think that was it wasn't it?
And I see it is still LABOUR LABOUR LABOUR navel grazing.
Do you think Ed Miliband wonders if it was all worth it? Ripping apart his family, and failing.
If he cared about family he wouldn't have done what he did. He is entitlement sans principle or self-awareness - look at his tax-dodging rule by horses, for example.
Can we take a moment of silence to remember the sacrifice that Ed's Lectern took over the course of this defeat. Dragged from back garden to back garden up and down the country.
He can keep three in the big kitchen and one in the little one upstairs. Perhaps he could use it to prepare tea and snacks on?
Labour, by the way, got 9.3m votes - 300,000 FEWER than John Major in 1997.
And Labour's total is just 800,000 up on their dismal performance in 2010. Labour got 13.5m in 1997.
The Blair-voting millions have disappeared, perhaps forever.
We have been here before and we know that nothing - not even Tory governments - lasts forever. With the LDs all but wiped out, Labour has an opportunity to build a united, centre-left vote in England and Wales. If Cameron can somehow save the Union, that may then be extended into Scotland - though I suspect SLab will now go its own way and, should it ever return MPs to Westminster in the future, will sit as a separate, though allied, party. Labour is at the start of a hard slog and begins with the disadvantage of having Neolithic trade union leaders to deal with, but there is a way back and at some stage it will be found.
So you're now in 1983 and you've probably got two more to lose. When was the last time a majority government lost and made way for a majority government?
To depress you further, look at the list upthread of new Labour MPs, and look how many are women. They have been selected not because they have any talent, but on sexist principles, because they are women. The leader who gets you out of this mess is going to face institutional Labour sexism even getting a seat and many of those in the HoC now are about as useful as the Spanish Army officer corps in 1807.
@Cyclefree - I got the main event completely wrong in outline. I did well in Scotland and in my selection of constituency bets in general, and was early last night to see that the Conservatives were outperforming the exit polls enough to get an overall majority. So I did well financially, but I'm not claiming that I was any great seer of what we got. The exit poll was a bombshell to me.
A decent farewell from Ed, but also one that showed why he was never a very good choice to lead. His lack of self awareness is startling.
It is now time for some major introspection and soul-searching. Sadly, I really don't think that parts of the party are capable of that. Whatever the short term hit it would be best if Len, Unite and other Jurassic unions were to leave and form a Real Labour party or something like that. Then the people left can start to have a proper debate about what it means to be a centre left party in an age of internationalisation, globalisation and limited resources. Look at aspiration and encourage it, understand how businesses - SMEs especially - function and embrace them as the engines of our economy, but frame arguments that are based on the idea that we all do best when the state acts as a guarantor of minimum standards of living and maximum equality of opportunity. Labour needs to keep its commitment to the state, but it needs to rethink what that state can and should be. At the root of everything is the idea of solidarity: that we are better off as individuals and as family units when we work together and look after each other, that is modern social democracy. No easy slogans, no NHS worship, no Tories this and Tories that, concede past errors - it's time to be grown-up, to accept that the world has moved on and to develop a vision that reflects this. Then sell it, from door to door, from street to street, day in and day out. This is the only way back.
They could do with listening to you SO. Great post.
If Cameron implements the boundary review that 6% might become 7 or even 8%.
It is the statutory duty of the Boundary Commissions to submit reports between 1 September and 1 October 2018 (see the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986, s. 3(2)). The draft of an Order in Council giving effect to the new boundaries must be approved by a resolution of both Houses of Parliament (s. 4(3)). The government must therefore survive until the end of 2018 (a year after the Europe referendum) in order to be able to implement the boundary review.
What did his Question 1 results say, as opposed to the Q2 ones everyone chose to focus on?
Similarly, what would Yougov have projected if it hadn't re-weighted to a phoney Labour lead in early April?
Individuals making false assumptions about 'constituency' questions being more valuable and backing the inaccuracy in their own polls when the phones were saying something different is the problem here.
The 2010:2015 YG ratios were pointing at 36-37 at the end of March until they changed tack.
People making arbitrary choices rather than following the numbers has led to headline inaccuracy.
Don't be too pessimistic about the prospects for the Union. BQ had 49 seats in 2008 Canadian election and now have 2. It will take calm heads though. The Tories should definitely be working on the give them enough rope principle.
Comments
But seriously all pollsters need to ditch D/K reallocation and exclusions, also they need to discount turnout among those employed by 20%.
Constituency specific questions also need to be ditched, along with seat forecasts.
All politics is national and UNS is still supreme.
Wins: SNP seats, narrow arb - West Wirral at 5%, Gloria to win Ashfield at 1:4.
Losses: Lab Most Seats, Composition of New Govt - didn't cover Tory Maj., UKIP to win Basildon S & Thurrock, Lab to win Croydon Central. Last one stake was laid off.
Mistakes: Not laying off UKIP in Basildon. Missing Tory Maj available at good odds.
Now I need a couple of spreadsheets for logging / book tracking and calculations, and a separate bank account.
Conservatives @ 5/4
Constituency Betting
St Ives £11.79 Pending
Late winner due in from paddy.
The old timers promised votes by the wheelbarrow load that never materialised, must be gutted.
the ghastly Jacqui Smith is back on TV
cross, midnight, garlic, silver bullet.
Watford result:
Con 24,400
Lab 14,606
LD 10,152
UKIP 5,481
Green 1,332
TUSC 178
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001021
Just sayin'...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001027
By the way I just noticed the Watford GE result.There was a lot of talk from OGH about Dorothy Thornhill but she got Absolutley thumped..
Jarvis is even more left-wing than EdM, he looks a bit lightweight to me.
I hope Labour learn their lesson about running 'a class warfare/politics of envy campaign. I think the public have moved on from this and it is proved now beyond a shadow of doub, that it doesn't work.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZY7Pkcl6v4
Lab 15
UKIP 2
still to be declared 3
I guess they were impressed on how well the council was run....
Brake
Cardigon chap
??
??
Lamb
Carmichael
Farron
Clegg (Bowing out)
'Trews' Salmond (not wasted taxes on hiding his failures; no-siree) is quoted as saying that 'the Scottish Lion will roar'. Any fule knows that the Lion is England (and the Scots use an imaginary/joke creature - a Unicorn - as their national symbol). So why is he bigging-up the people that his knuckle-dragging, twin braincells despise...?
Flick Drummond trounced Gerald Vernon Jackson too.
Con 35 (-2 from GE)
Lab 32 (+1 from GE)
UKIP 14 (+1)
LD 9 (+1)
Grn 4 (spot on)
Most PB Tories appreciate the role the LibDems have played in government but you lack the style, intelligence and magnanimity that your colleagues show. Instead your posts today are filled with cheap and trite partisan bile.
You are a sad sight indeed.
Mulholland in Leeds NW
Lots and lots I expect.
And so to business which I hope is not with undue haste..
If NPXMP would like to donate £40 via gift aid to LUPUS UK. I would be very grateful
He was behind the idea that the LD will hold.
Jack, darling, you're so MoneySupermarket!
Con most seats at 10/11 - tick
Con spread buy at 280 - tick
My seat prediction yesterday was Tories 306, so I even bettered the ARSE!
I was looking forward to a nice tawny called Geoff.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11571601/Pensioner-places-30000-bet-on-Conservative-majority-at-general-election.html
Con 36
Lab 30
UKIP 11
LD 9
Grn 7
It is a fundamental problem which I analysed, it was D/K reallocation and exclusion plus wrong turnout weighting.
A lot of people who said they will definitely vote did not vote and specifically from the under 65's.
Lock up your daughters ( literally ).
So Con were 3 out.
I still can't believe THAT Exit Poll - what a corker.
Stirling:
Labour Johanna Boyd 13,303 25.5 -16.2
Conservative Stephen Kerr[2] 12,051 23.1 -0.9
I bet that was some misguided tacticals that cost me a decent win on Con 2nd there !
Similarly, what would Yougov have projected if it hadn't re-weighted to a phoney Labour lead in early April?
Individuals making false assumptions about 'constituency' questions being more valuable and backing the inaccuracy in their own polls when the phones were saying something different is the problem here.
The 2010:2015 YG ratios were pointing at 36-37 at the end of March until they changed tack.
People making arbitrary choices rather than following the numbers has led to headline inaccuracy.
The clues were always there.
I'm need to sit in my library in quiet contemplation and await a phone call .... If one is called to serve ....
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=scottish+lion
Second entry.
I just can't see how the Tories will lose power as long as the SNP rules scotland.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000685
I had it on for hours and hours last night and hardly saw any Tory presence spinning in person. Gove was on for an hour at the start and I think that was it wasn't it?
And I see it is still LABOUR LABOUR LABOUR navel grazing.
To depress you further, look at the list upthread of new Labour MPs, and look how many are women. They have been selected not because they have any talent, but on sexist principles, because they are women. The leader who gets you out of this mess is going to face institutional Labour sexism even getting a seat and many of those in the HoC now are about as useful as the Spanish Army officer corps in 1807.
Well done on Bury N though !