politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Many congratulations to those who called it right

RepublicanTory said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Con HOLD BEDFORD

Poor old OGH

It really has been a shocking night for him

Wasn't rewarded for his subversion of democracy. Good.

Scott_P said:

@GuidoFawkes: BBC: Miliband to tell staff he's resigning shortly, will do it in public at 12 in speech.

Were you up for Ed?

Hell Yes !!!!

It is now clear why there was a space at the bottom of the Ed Stone. A monumental mason is currently chiseling

"Well, he tried..."

The_Apocalypse said:

EPG said:

Purseybear said:

Quick post re. comparisons to 1992-7. You have to remember that came at the fag-end of a 11 year rule and the Conservatives were in internal warfare over the deposition of Margaret Thatcher. In addition the ERM fiasco so early on derailed them for the remainder of the parliament.

I think Cameron will have a very different experience with a lot more self-discipline based on a desire to win next time. Also don't forget that 230 Lab + 55 SNP is a very different opposition from 285 Lab. Quite apart from anything else SNP MP's will not attend and vote at Westminster the whole time.

But they've got literally one thing to fight for together. What manifesto did they run on? Out of Europe referendum, and... ? ? ? ? This gap weakens Cameron's authority to tell them to do anything.

Exactly. There are three things which are significant obstacles for the Tories; EU ref, austerity impact, and Scotland. On top of that, if Cameron goes after 2017 it will feel like the end of an era and the 'fag-end' of a government.

Or if Cameron goes after 2017 it feels as a fresher, rejuvenated government.

Tories almost at 11m votes

Vince Cable's loser speech was probably the least gracious of those made by high profile losers. He also did least well in hiding his disappointment. The tearful Tory who defeated him looked like she could not believe it.

"I can't help but think Miliband and Balls refusal to acknowledge the mess they made of the economy has come back to haunt them."

I don't think that was it.

I didn't meet anyone who said they were voting Labour from the beginning of the campaign.

The more I read the polls the more out of touch I thought I was. I assumed there must be vast estates of people I never came into contact with.

It seemed so counter intuitive that people would vote for a pig in a poke when things were rolling along OK. It just isn't the British way. Why the polls didn't pick it up is a mystery.

(My kiss of death; Chuka Ummuna for new Labour leader.)

MikeL said:

Con still +21

Any more Con seats at risk? Warwick only I think? And that looks unlikely.

Excellent chance of 331 if they get the 3 last LD seats.

Big Tory Banner hanging on student accommodation in Leamington. Pretty much sums up Warwick Uni.

— Alan Carr (@NotTheChattyMan) May 8, 2015

RobD said:

Tories almost at 11m votes

Pah! Major got over 14m in 1992.

Rogue spacecraft burns up on re-entry.

The Labour space agency says that its out-of-control campaign has burnt up as it re-entered the Earth's atmosphere.

Re-entry was over the Highlands, it said, and only a few fragments were expected to hit the Commons.

The leaderless campaign was launched from a stone slab on 28 April, but control was lost soon afterwards.

Labour space agency Hopealllostosmos said: "The BackToKinnock M-27M campaign ceased to exist at 05:04 Miliband time (02:04 GMT) on 8 May 2015. It entered the atmosphere... over the central part of the Highlands."

Plato said:

22 seats left to declare. Apart from Thanet South - what's left?

Wells will be a tory gain.

Philip_Thompson said:

The_Apocalypse said:

EPG said:

Purseybear said:

Quick post re. comparisons to 1992-7. You have to remember that came at the fag-end of a 11 year rule and the Conservatives were in internal warfare over the deposition of Margaret Thatcher. In addition the ERM fiasco so early on derailed them for the remainder of the parliament.

I think Cameron will have a very different experience with a lot more self-discipline based on a desire to win next time. Also don't forget that 230 Lab + 55 SNP is a very different opposition from 285 Lab. Quite apart from anything else SNP MP's will not attend and vote at Westminster the whole time.

But they've got literally one thing to fight for together. What manifesto did they run on? Out of Europe referendum, and... ? ? ? ? This gap weakens Cameron's authority to tell them to do anything.

Exactly. There are three things which are significant obstacles for the Tories; EU ref, austerity impact, and Scotland. On top of that, if Cameron goes after 2017 it will feel like the end of an era and the 'fag-end' of a government.

Or if Cameron goes after 2017 it feels as a fresher, rejuvenated government.

Really? Cameron by far is their biggest asset. Boris isn't a sure-fire bet to succeed and the likes of Osborne are walking electoral disasters.

Pulpstar said:

News from North Norfolk ?

Lamb Hung on by 4k

SouthamObserver said:

Vince Cable's loser speech was probably the least gracious of those made by high profile losers. He also did least well in hiding his disappointment. The tearful Tory who defeated him looked like she could not believe it.

I agree about Vince. A bad loser underneath his "elderly statesman" veneer. Having spent his time talking about nuking his partners, he got his just deserts for his duplicity and whining.

17 seats to come:

7 counting this morning: Hexham, Berwick, Blyth Valley, Wansbeck, Warwick, Kenilworth, St Ives.

10 still counting from overnight: Wells, Devon West, Luton North, Luton South, Broadland, Thanet North, Thanet South, Devon Central, Beds NE, Harborough, Cotswolds.

Moses_ said:

BBC stating Tories now need 8 to win an overall majority

Edit - 17 seats still to declare

Financier said:

Scott_P said:

@WillHillBet: Next Labour Party Leader http://t.co/DNw3WBnJyf
7/4 Chuka Umunna
5/2 Andy Burnham
3/1 Yvette Cooper
8/1 Dan Jarvis
12 David Miliband

All disastrous choices

Why would Dan Jarvis or even David Miliband be 'disastrous'?

Life_ina_market_town said:

..... the first session of Parliament must see the passage of a bill providing for a referendum on Europe and a constitutional bill on Scotland. With the Conservatives' perilously small majority, passing one will be an uphill struggle. Passing two will require serious commitment.

Yes. But what happens to the attempts to pass those bills will be much clearer to the electorate now. As long as the Conservatives bring forward the bills to which they have committed the electorate will have a clear view of what people/parties blocked them. As long as the Conservatives themselves vote for the bills, they will be in the clear with the electorate. Won't they?

RepublicanTory said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Con HOLD BEDFORD

Poor old OGH

It really has been a shocking night for him

If he looks back at some of his posts, especially regarding how labour would do much better in the marginals and how polls showing any decent Tory leads were rogues, he will cringe.

Oh, fantabulous day!

Balls losing: Yay!
Reckless losing: Yay!
Nick losing: Yay!

I wonder how much Nick would have lost by if Soubry hadn't given up? The lady must have been in cruise control. ;-)

My concern about the pollsters seems to have been proved right. We're going to have to see some massive changes, but I cannot really see how they can improve things.

Financier said:

Scott_P said:

@WillHillBet: Next Labour Party Leader http://t.co/DNw3WBnJyf
7/4 Chuka Umunna
5/2 Andy Burnham
3/1 Yvette Cooper
8/1 Dan Jarvis
12 David Miliband

All disastrous choices

Yvette Cooper and Dan Jarvis would both be excellent choices.

MARTIN !!

@PickardJE: Andrew Rawnsley: "The Lib Dem MPs will all fit in one taxi."

Jonathan said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The_Apocalypse said:

EPG said:

Purseybear said:

Quick post re. comparisons to 1992-7. You have to remember that came at the fag-end of a 11 year rule and the Conservatives were in internal warfare over the deposition of Margaret Thatcher. In addition the ERM fiasco so early on derailed them for the remainder of the parliament.

I think Cameron will have a very different experience with a lot more self-discipline based on a desire to win next time. Also don't forget that 230 Lab + 55 SNP is a very different opposition from 285 Lab. Quite apart from anything else SNP MP's will not attend and vote at Westminster the whole time.

But they've got literally one thing to fight for together. What manifesto did they run on? Out of Europe referendum, and... ? ? ? ? This gap weakens Cameron's authority to tell them to do anything.

Exactly. There are three things which are significant obstacles for the Tories; EU ref, austerity impact, and Scotland. On top of that, if Cameron goes after 2017 it will feel like the end of an era and the 'fag-end' of a government.

Or if Cameron goes after 2017 it feels as a fresher, rejuvenated government.

Really? Cameron by far is their biggest asset. Boris isn't a sure-fire bet to succeed and the likes of Osborne are walking electoral disasters.

Well we get to find out now. Doesn't always go so well. Brown, Home, Callaghan and Major were not exactly "fresh" three years in.

Agreed.

Conservatives hold Bedfordshire NE.

BBC learns David Milliband is expected to step down as Labour leader....

As an exercise in destructive futility Ed's leadership of the Labour party will take some beating.

Purseybear said:

AndyJS said:

17 seats to come:

7 counting this morning: Hexham, Berwick, Blyth Valley, Wansbeck, Warwick, Kenilworth, St Ives.

10 still counting from overnight: Wells, Devon West, Luton North, Luton South, Broadland, Thanet North, Thanet South, Devon Central, Beds NE, Harborough, Cotswolds.

Wouldn't it be delicious if Farage lost to give the Cons 326?!

That'd be worth the wait!

The_Apocalypse said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The_Apocalypse said:

EPG said:

Purseybear said:

Quick post re. comparisons to 1992-7. You have to remember that came at the fag-end of a 11 year rule and the Conservatives were in internal warfare over the deposition of Margaret Thatcher. In addition the ERM fiasco so early on derailed them for the remainder of the parliament.

I think Cameron will have a very different experience with a lot more self-discipline based on a desire to win next time. Also don't forget that 230 Lab + 55 SNP is a very different opposition from 285 Lab. Quite apart from anything else SNP MP's will not attend and vote at Westminster the whole time.

But they've got literally one thing to fight for together. What manifesto did they run on? Out of Europe referendum, and... ? ? ? ? This gap weakens Cameron's authority to tell them to do anything.

Exactly. There are three things which are significant obstacles for the Tories; EU ref, austerity impact, and Scotland. On top of that, if Cameron goes after 2017 it will feel like the end of an era and the 'fag-end' of a government.

Or if Cameron goes after 2017 it feels as a fresher, rejuvenated government.

Really? Cameron by far is their biggest asset. Boris isn't a sure-fire bet to succeed and the likes of Osborne are walking electoral disasters.

Three to four years is a long time for someone else to emerge. People like Major, Blair or Cameron (or Miliband or IDS for less successful ones) were a long way below the radar that length of time before they became leader of their party.

Just think, we'll only have a few more hours to say

Ed is Crap
and
Ed will never be Prime Minister.

The extra 12-13 seats the Tories got over the exit poll are vital. Having to do a confidence and supply with the DUP would have been electorally unpopular.

The Conservative backbenchers are now the most powerful politicians in Britain and Cameron won't be able to use the Lib Dems as an excuse to not implement traditional Tory policies. There will be a gap there for Labour to fill in the middle ground as the Tories go right.

Slackbladder said:

Just think, we'll only have a few more hours to say

Ed is Crap
and
Ed will never be Prime Minister.

Scott_P said:

@annemcelvoy: Well it's another walk of shame for Labour and the soul searching will be bitter

@jennirsl: Remember - all party leaders; Cameron, Miliband, Clegg, Sturgeon, meet for VE day remembrance service this pm. Excruciating. #GE2015

It may be that Clegg will no longer be Deputy Prime Minister, and that Harman will be Leader of HM Loyal Opposition by this afternoon.

FTSE up 1.6%, 7000

AnneJGP said:

Life_ina_market_town said:

..... the first session of Parliament must see the passage of a bill providing for a referendum on Europe and a constitutional bill on Scotland. With the Conservatives' perilously small majority, passing one will be an uphill struggle. Passing two will require serious commitment.

Yes. But what happens to the attempts to pass those bills will be much clearer to the electorate now. As long as the Conservatives bring forward the bills to which they have committed the electorate will have a clear view of what people/parties blocked them. As long as the Conservatives themselves vote for the bills, they will be in the clear with the electorate. Won't they?

Do the public know what the Conservative policy on Scotland is?

Does David Cameron?

Scott_P said:

MARTIN !!

@PickardJE: Andrew Rawnsley: "The Lib Dem MPs will all fit in one taxi."

How many are there

SouthamObserver said:

As an exercise in destructive futility Ed's leadership of the Labour party will take some beating.

Andy Burnham could give it a good go

ToriesForBurnham

david_herdson said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The_Apocalypse said:

EPG said:

Purseybear said:

Quick post re. comparisons to 1992-7. You have to remember that came at the fag-end of a 11 year rule and the Conservatives were in internal warfare over the deposition of Margaret Thatcher. In addition the ERM fiasco so early on derailed them for the remainder of the parliament.

I think Cameron will have a very different experience with a lot more self-discipline based on a desire to win next time. Also don't forget that 230 Lab + 55 SNP is a very different opposition from 285 Lab. Quite apart from anything else SNP MP's will not attend and vote at Westminster the whole time.

But they've got literally one thing to fight for together. What manifesto did they run on? Out of Europe referendum, and... ? ? ? ? This gap weakens Cameron's authority to tell them to do anything.

Exactly. There are three things which are significant obstacles for the Tories; EU ref, austerity impact, and Scotland. On top of that, if Cameron goes after 2017 it will feel like the end of an era and the 'fag-end' of a government.

Or if Cameron goes after 2017 it feels as a fresher, rejuvenated government.

Really? Cameron by far is their biggest asset. Boris isn't a sure-fire bet to succeed and the likes of Osborne are walking electoral disasters.

Three to four years is a long time for someone else to emerge. People like Major, Blair or Cameron (or Miliband or IDS for less successful ones) were a long way below the radar that length of time before they became leader of their party.

Hardly, for example Blair and Brown were cited as future leaders before 92.

SouthamObserver said:

As an exercise in destructive futility Ed's leadership of the Labour party will take some beating.

I'm shocked at how badly Labour did.

They seem to have lost the aspirational voters. They piled up votes in shitholes and communities with large Asian majorities but struggled everywhere else. They've even performed without enthusiasm in their strongholds in Wales.

I know those on the left of the party don't want to hear it but they need to tap into Blair and find out how he won so many seats in better-off areas.

I hope the new administration scraps postal voting ASAP (or at least restores the old system).

Pulpstar said:

Scott_P said:

MARTIN !!

@PickardJE: Andrew Rawnsley: "The Lib Dem MPs will all fit in one taxi."

How many are there

8

Prodicus said:

Not sure if they really mean 1 am. PM, maybe?

The results for the Warwick @ Leamington and Kenilworth and Southam seats will be announced by 1am today. #GE2015

— Warwick Courier (@Warwick_Courier) May 8, 2015

For some reason we only start counting in the morning. Both will be very easy Tory holds.

david_herdson said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

Vince Cable's loser speech was probably the least gracious of those made by high profile losers. He also did least well in hiding his disappointment. The tearful Tory who defeated him looked like she could not believe it.

I agree about Vince. A bad loser underneath his "elderly statesman" veneer. Having spent his time talking about nuking his partners, he got his just deserts for his duplicity and whining.

Cable personifies what went wrong with the Lib Dems. Rather than bargain hard then stick to the deal, they consistently rolled over and then tried to distance themselves, with the result that they looked neither capable or trustworthy.

Quite. Much better to agree the deal and have everyone stick with it.

If the Tories have any sense, they will repeal the monstrous Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011.

david_herdson said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

Vince Cable's loser speech was probably the least gracious of those made by high profile losers. He also did least well in hiding his disappointment. The tearful Tory who defeated him looked like she could not believe it.

I agree about Vince. A bad loser underneath his "elderly statesman" veneer. Having spent his time talking about nuking his partners, he got his just deserts for his duplicity and whining.

Cable personifies what went wrong with the Lib Dems. Rather than bargain hard then stick to the deal, they consistently rolled over and then tried to distance themselves, with the result that they looked neither capable or trustworthy.

This is the Tory analysis. The Lib Dems should have been nicer to the Tories, and let the Tories do more Tory things. But half their 2010 voters, at least, quit for the Greens and Labour, and a few went to Ukip and Conservative. How would being a Tory-enabler have helped that?

MikeSmithson said:

Fenster said:

dyedwoolie said:

Pulpstar said:

News from North Norfolk ?

Lamb Hung on by 4k

I think he is high quality Norman Lamb. The Lib Dems could coalesce around him and try to make a comeback fighting in by-elections.

I still believe the Lib Dems will bounce back from this.

I agree with that. Lamb is the right person not Farron.

Farron is not the right person for anything political. He is my MP and I constantly feel amazed that fellow voters have failed to see through this lightweight.

His top level is that of the measuring assistant in a Burton Tailoring store.

Tories have a good chance of hitting 330 seats.