Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Many congratulations to those who called it right

189111314

Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,388
    edited May 2015
    100,000 comment thread! :open_mouth:
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    taffys said:

    Andyjs
    Parts of GOwer are pretty upmarket. Conundrum now for Blues. Do they slash welsh seat numbers to equalize constituencies having done so well here?

    A normal boundary review would knock the numbers of seats without a reduction in size of Parliament. Last numbers suggested a reduction to about 30.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited May 2015
    calum said:

    I'm looking forward to Holyrood 2016, lets hope the bookies open up the markets soon !!

    Aren't you going to be in Las Vegas for the next year with all those winnings?
  • dyingswandyingswan Posts: 189
    Do you think that people will understand the problem that shy Tories give the pollsters? I believe that it is this. The media and people in the arts and entertainment have made it very uncool for anyone to admit to Conservative views particularly amongst the young. I call it the Jeremy Hardy factor. There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless. They will mislead pollsters and express themselves only in the privacy of the polling booth. Whilst News Quiz and its leftie comedians push out the party line people will go on staying quiet about their true allegiances and the polls will underrate Tory VI.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Ken Livingston BBC - this result for Labour shows we cannot return to New Labour.

    Obelisk of stone not to laugh.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Alex Wickham ‏@WikiGuido 16m16 minutes ago
    Labour source: "Ed doing what Brownites do - lose."

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Some people argued that the coalition was more stable than a small majority last time, now we get to see!
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited May 2015
    Fenster said:

    It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.

    UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.

    I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.

    As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.

    And which aspects of Government would suffer due to additional reductions in funding?

    (O/T - noticed that the bloggers in the Guardian are taking this defeat with their usual good grace - they never learn.)
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Moses_ said:

    Ken Livingston BBC - this result for Labour shows we cannot return to New Labour.

    Obelisk of stone not to laugh.

    on itv: the only labour leader to win an election in last 40 years: tony blair and yet ken livingstone thinks staying on the left will win elections
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    AndyJS said:

    Turnout up just 1 point from 2010 at 66%:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results

    Which probably disguises a large fall, given the registration changes. Sky reported turnout of young voters was up, so which groups stayed at home? Perhaps that is where the election was decided.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    GIN1138 said:

    So David Cameron.

    Since he became leader of the Tories, David Cameron seen off Charles Kennedy, Tony Blair, Ming Campbell, Gordon Brown, and now Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage.

    And he has given the Tories their first majority government for 23 years.

    Turns out, for all the abuse I and everyone else has given him over the years, he's actually a bloody leader isn't he?

    So, without Blair as leader, Labour haven't won a GE since 1974.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    AndyJS said:

    Tories are on 36.8% now. They got 36.9% in 2010. I think the remaining 14 results will take them above 37%, so an increased vote share in GB compared to the last election.

    Maybe some people placed bets on that outcome.

    36.8% is UK.

    Con is up 0.8%.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,401
    kjohnw said:

    Scott_P said:

    @ewenmacaskill: Labour's defeated Scottish leader Jim Murphy not standing down. to stay on as leader and fight for seat in Scottish Parliament next year.

    thats a landslide for the SNP next year then
    Depends what his legal advice was about having to be a MP or MSP to be leader. Ian Davidson ex-MP was not at all happy with Mr Murphy in an interview this am and I got the impression he for one would not let that happen. Of course nobody else might want to volunteer ...
  • Patrick said:

    Are the LibDems now basically dead? 8 MPs and a pitiful share of the vote - where can they go from here? I assume the media will soon enough just stop talking about them. They have the same number of MPs as the DUP and look set to be as relevant! For so long they stood for nothing and everything. One hung parliament was all it took to expose that. They'll fade from our memories PDQ I suspect.

    Politics abhors a vacuum, and somebody needs to be the opposition to the Tories in the South of England. In theory there's an opening for Labour there with the right leader, but they still have a lot of residual brand damage, and it's not obvious who they can pick who could appeal. Meanwhile the Greens seem determined to be resolutely lefty and a lot of voters are allergic to UKIP.

    So they go back to councils, then hope for a good by-election...
    I agree. I think the country needs a coherent left of centre opposition. I don't think the LibDems will be it. Labour may yet. But they need first to become coherent. Drop the union link. Admit past errors properly. Rethink who they are and who they are for. And push for a sensible as well as principled lefty opposition. For me the bottom line to 'sensible' is balanced budgets. Lefties can coherently argue for balance at high levels of tax and spend, while righties deliver balance at lower levels of tax and spend. Labour's undoing, in hindsight obvious from the GT audience's audible gasp when Red Ed denied ever overspending, was that they still resolutely believe in the magic money tree and simply don't see the need to balance budgets. They really do believe we can borrow forever. If they are honest with themselves in the inevtiable soul searching to come they will see that deficit denial must stop. Or they will never be able to build a coherent platform.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Another thank you. Well done to the Vanilla system for coping easily with 1k+ threads. It costs but I think the past 24 hours have shown its worth
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    dyingswan said:

    Do you think that people will understand the problem that shy Tories give the pollsters? I believe that it is this. The media and people in the arts and entertainment have made it very uncool for anyone to admit to Conservative views particularly amongst the young. I call it the Jeremy Hardy factor. There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless. They will mislead pollsters and express themselves only in the privacy of the polling booth. Whilst News Quiz and its leftie comedians push out the party line people will go on staying quiet about their true allegiances and the polls will underrate Tory VI.

    Utterly agree.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    Another thank you. Well done to the Vanilla system for coping easily with 1k+ threads. It costs but I think the past 24 hours have shown its worth

    Thanks again for the site OGH. Great place to be on election night.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JoeWatts_: The 1st edition of today's Evening Standard #GE2015 http://t.co/IlZJtRiVCE
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653

    fascinating to see combined nationalist / republican vote share in NI has fallen

    SF fell mainly because of losses to the People Before Profit Alliance in one constituency, which is definitely nationalist.

    SDLP is bleeding all over the statelet.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Fenster said:

    It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.

    UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.

    I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.

    As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.

    Absolutely spot on.

    Only Cameron could have won this victory and he must follow through on what he believes.

    Everyone who has spent the last 5 years criticising him now looks ridiculous.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Fenster said:

    It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.

    UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.

    I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.

    As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.

    Yes, we'll now see Cameron's Tory Party in its true colours. Will it be 'One Nation' as he promised at his count or will that be like Thatcher's promise "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony.", whatever happened to that idea?
    I suspect that he will be forced to swing rightward by his party because of the small majority and I suspect that we'll see Labour and the LibDems, both under new leaders, gaining votes and whittling away at that majority within a year. I expect UKIP to wither.
    So enjoy your triumph Dave, I hope you prove me wrong.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    dyingswan said:

    Do you think that people will understand the problem that shy Tories give the pollsters? I believe that it is this. The media and people in the arts and entertainment have made it very uncool for anyone to admit to Conservative views particularly amongst the young. I call it the Jeremy Hardy factor. There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless. They will mislead pollsters and express themselves only in the privacy of the polling booth. Whilst News Quiz and its leftie comedians push out the party line people will go on staying quiet about their true allegiances and the polls will underrate Tory VI.

    Unlike 1992 they don't seem to have been shy to the exit poll. The problem seems to be how to measure how the voters will change their minds on the day.

    The best solution I can think of is to lie to them and tell them the election's today.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Farage coming up, some time soon please?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2015
    Leaders vote shares:

    Cameron 60%
    Miliband 52%
    Salmond 48%
    Clegg 40%
    Farage ?

    Cameron a great tip from someone @ 5/2 - probably @antifrank

    Edit - just found an even earlier bet at 7/1 :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    dyingswan said:

    Do you think that people will understand the problem that shy Tories give the pollsters? I believe that it is this. The media and people in the arts and entertainment have made it very uncool for anyone to admit to Conservative views particularly amongst the young. I call it the Jeremy Hardy factor. There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless. They will mislead pollsters and express themselves only in the privacy of the polling booth. Whilst News Quiz and its leftie comedians push out the party line people will go on staying quiet about their true allegiances and the polls will underrate Tory VI.

    Unlike 1992 they don't seem to have been shy to the exit poll. The problem seems to be how to measure how the voters will change their minds on the day.

    The best solution I can think of is to lie to them and tell them the election's today.
    You'd have people running out desperately trying to find the polling place on a daily basis :D
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780

    Another thank you. Well done to the Vanilla system for coping easily with 1k+ threads. It costs but I think the past 24 hours have shown its worth

    Hope you can afford it with your losses! Do you need another donate button (even if i'm a bit skint now)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Sandpit said:

    Farage coming up, some time soon please?

    Yaeh.. I need to go to bed!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    BBC 'expert' panel

    Kate Hoey
    John Reid
    Bad Al

    Dan Hannan

    Fair and balanced at all times
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Why on earth are they still counting in The Cotswolds? It can't be close and a lost deposit query shouldn't hold up the process for 12 hours.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    saddened said:

    Very nice to see, with one obvious exception, that all the Labour supporters have stuck around and accepted the result with good grace. It's a reflection on their integrity.

    Thanks for being so magnanimous. This is 1992 redux for me (but probably not as bad - there were signs things weren't going to plan early this week - obvious signals were being obscured by the love-in with the opinion polls)

    And to be honest, the short term future is so poor for Labour. There is a dearth of talent within the Patliamentary Labour Party - Ed Milliband is arguably one of the more talented ones - that's the brutal truth and that's why I am pessimistic in the short term.

    Tories - enjoy your win. It's a very long way back for Labour.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    edited May 2015
    Who are the non-SNP MPs?

    Edited extra bit: in Scotland, I mean :tongue:

    Also, the emoticons have changed a bit.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,401
    Didn't someone want a turnout map? Here's an interactive one - party strength too.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32624405
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,388
    Scott_P said:

    BBC 'expert' panel

    Kate Hoey
    John Reid
    Bad Al

    Dan Hannan

    Fair and balanced at all times

    How's Bad Al taking it? ;)

  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited May 2015
    weejonnie said:

    Fenster said:

    It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.

    UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.

    I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.

    As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.

    And which aspects of Government would suffer due to additional reductions in funding?

    (O/T - noticed that the bloggers in the Guardian are taking this defeat with their usual good grace - they never learn.)
    From memory, the welfare budget is £111billion next year. Cameron should be very persuasive in saying that he is happy to spend that huge amount of money, provided it goes to the neediest first.

    IDS made some good headway with tackling benefits/work deprived; now the Tories need to win hearts and minds on it.

    My Dad was getting interrogated by the DWP lot after having to leave work with Alzheimers at 56. We felt as though we had to prove he was ill (he's already in a care home, can't speak or walk). It was cruel. I'm pretty open-minded and understand that incidents like that (ATOS did some awful stuff apparently) stem from people abusing the system, but honestly, there is a cruel, shitty, depressing world out there which I wasn't aware of until my Dad's demise. It's inhabited by carers who are trapped, often without money or hope, and often too ashamed to ask for hand-outs - and these people need attention. Especially as we have an ageing population with dementia on the rise.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Who are the non-SNP MPs?

    David Mundell
    Alistair Carmichael
    Ian Murray
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Here we go. Thanet South.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    dyingswan said:

    Do you think that people will understand the problem that shy Tories give the pollsters? I believe that it is this. The media and people in the arts and entertainment have made it very uncool for anyone to admit to Conservative views particularly amongst the young. I call it the Jeremy Hardy factor. There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless. They will mislead pollsters and express themselves only in the privacy of the polling booth. Whilst News Quiz and its leftie comedians push out the party line people will go on staying quiet about their true allegiances and the polls will underrate Tory VI.

    There's a leap here, and to be fair it is the same leap that the shy Tory factor has always required. The leap is to explain why one would feel social pressure about public expression when responding to a poll.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    I'm still shocked. After yesterday's polls I was preparing for a Labour minority government and Ed as PM. But today it's a Tory majority! Unbelievable
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Christopher Hope ‏@christopherhope 1 min1 minute ago

    BREAKING Nigel Farage has failed to win in South Thanet by 1700 votes according to Ukip sources. #GE2015

    Bye bye Nige
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Thanet South!!!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Con HOLD South Thanet
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited May 2015
    Here's Nigel...

    ... there goes Nigel.

    Beaten by an Ex Kipper.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Millsy said:

    I'm still shocked. After yesterday's polls I was preparing for a Labour minority government and Ed as PM. But today it's a Tory majority! Unbelievable

    Blue Dawn :)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,401

    Who are the non-SNP MPs?

    Edited extra bit: in Scotland, I mean :tongue:

    Also, the emoticons have changed a bit.

    Carmichael (O&S), Murray (S. Edin.) and Mundell (DCT).

  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Alistair said:

    calum said:

    I'm looking forward to Holyrood 2016, lets hope the bookies open up the markets soon !!

    They can't make the same mistakes again.

    Maybe they'll massively undershoot the Green figure?
    My thoughts exactly, the 3 "mainstream parties" are likely to get squeezed in a pincer movement by the SNP, Greens and rather bizarrely UKIP. No doubt some of the SLAB and SLID losers will try and fight their way into Holyrood, sadly there will be no room for any of them, Jim Murphy will need someone to fall on their sword.

    One thing we do need for next year is a seat predictor which works at a regional level. The best calculator I've come across is:

    http://www.scotlandvotes.com/holyrood
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,388

    Fenster said:

    It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.

    UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.

    I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.

    As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.

    Yes, we'll now see Cameron's Tory Party in its true colours. Will it be 'One Nation' as he promised at his count or will that be like Thatcher's promise "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony.", whatever happened to that idea?
    I suspect that he will be forced to swing rightward by his party because of the small majority and I suspect that we'll see Labour and the LibDems, both under new leaders, gaining votes and whittling away at that majority within a year. I expect UKIP to wither.
    So enjoy your triumph Dave, I hope you prove me wrong.
    Get boundary reform through though (this has to the Tories first act) and the Tory majority will be notionally significantly greater...
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The thing that struck me most last night wasn't the defeats but the bitter wins. Clegg. Carswell.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Quality line up in Thanet South..
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    Nige gone
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    isam said:

    Some people argued that the coalition was more stable than a small majority last time, now we get to see!

    As a coalitionista, that's been my argument. But I think Cameron might have an easier time than Major did, even with a smaller majority. The death of Scottish Labour is key.
    In 1992, Con had 336, Labour 271. This time, Conservatives are about 15 behind that, but Labour are over 40 behind.

    The more Labour and SNP vote together, the more Scottish people will wonder what the point of SLab is.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. JS, and Mr. Carnyx, thanks.

    Surprised the Conservative chap, if I've remembered the name right, held on.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Oh what sheer bliss. Love it!!!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Farage out
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2015
    Morning. Still feeling somewhat dazed here; occasional outbreaks of hysterical laughter and punching the air. Ave 'it called it at 330 very early last night when everyone else was still massively sceptical and deserves some sort of award for clairvoyancy. My ledger:

    Good:
    Tory majority
    Vince Cable toast
    Labour destroyed in Scotland; now the three main parties are in panda-land
    Balls gone
    Vince Cable toast
    UKIP's abject failure
    Paddy Ashdown's braised fedora
    Vince Cable toast (did I mention that)
    Harriet Harman having to suck it up on live TV
    Galloway - almost forgot that gem!

    Bad:
    LD's hammered a little too hard, some excellent MPs punished for doing nothing wrong
    My consituency (Brentford) going Labour by 500 votes
    London in general
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    Nigel lost !!!!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    BOOOOOOOM that the UKIP implosion
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    YES! What an end to a spectacular night.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    I was up for Farage too.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723

    Christopher Hope ‏@christopherhope 1 min1 minute ago

    BREAKING Nigel Farage has failed to win in South Thanet by 1700 votes according to Ukip sources. #GE2015

    Bye bye Nige

    2,800 in fact.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    Cheerio, cheerio, cheerio......
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    LOL

    Al Murray closet Conservative
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    QuaLOLity.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Labour NOWHERE in Thanet South.

  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    Having dozed off, just woke up for this. The perfect evening. Up for
    Ed Balls
    Chloe Smith
    Vince Cable
    and now Farage.
    GE2015 - the gift that keeps on giving.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    ... and that leaves a far more sane person as the head figure of UKIP ...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    edited May 2015
    Little surprised Labour did so badly in South Thanet.

    Edited extra bit: Thanet South*, sorry.

    Edited extra bit 2: and at least I'm not making a winning speech getting the name wrong :tongue:
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,388
    edited May 2015
    The end of Farage... How the mighty have fallen...

    He had a shocker of a campaign though.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    So Cameron has now seen off Salmond, Clegg, Miliband and Farage (+ Gordon Brown)
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Isam is not very good at tips and Mike may have overstated ukip seat numbers a touch
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Ed, Clegg and Farage to be gone by lunchtime, probably.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,401
    edited May 2015

    Mr. JS, and Mr. Carnyx, thanks.

    Surprised the Conservative chap, if I've remembered the name right, held on.

    Yes, Mr Mundell did, if only by his opposable pseudothumb:

    http://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/article/analogy_06

    Edit: not sure what the definition of a marginal is, but there were only a couple of percentage points in his win ((40%/38%).
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    The BBC have talked over the top of almost every acceptance speech.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    JonathanD said:

    So Cameron has now seen off Salmond, Clegg, Miliband and Farage (+ Gordon Brown)

    And Davis, May & Johnson.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited May 2015
    murali_s said:

    saddened said:

    Very nice to see, with one obvious exception, that all the Labour supporters have stuck around and accepted the result with good grace. It's a reflection on their integrity.

    Thanks for being so magnanimous. This is 1992 redux for me (but probably not as bad - there were signs things weren't going to plan early this week - obvious signals were being obscured by the love-in with the opinion polls)

    And to be honest, the short term future is so poor for Labour. There is a dearth of talent within the Patliamentary Labour Party - Ed Milliband is arguably one of the more talented ones - that's the brutal truth and that's why I am pessimistic in the short term.

    Tories - enjoy your win. It's a very long way back for Labour.
    Good for you for sticking up for your beliefs. I think it was a late late ( like walking to the polling booth) swing making it tough to pick up. I too only decided finally 200yds from the polling booth!
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525

    marke09 said:

    Final Welsh share
    Labour 37% (-1)
    Cons 27% (+1)
    UKIP 14% (+12)
    Plaid Cymru 12% (-1)
    Lib Dems 7% (-13)
    Others 3% (+2)

    But Leanne said on the tv this morning that PC had a great campaign. WTF. Maths not a key skill in Wales?
    Plaid have to be very disappointed at going backwards despite being given inflated status for the debates. To finish behind UKIP in number of votes is very poor
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    GIN1138 said:

    Fenster said:

    It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.

    UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.

    I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.

    As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.

    Yes, we'll now see Cameron's Tory Party in its true colours. Will it be 'One Nation' as he promised at his count or will that be like Thatcher's promise "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony.", whatever happened to that idea?
    I suspect that he will be forced to swing rightward by his party because of the small majority and I suspect that we'll see Labour and the LibDems, both under new leaders, gaining votes and whittling away at that majority within a year. I expect UKIP to wither.
    So enjoy your triumph Dave, I hope you prove me wrong.
    Get boundary reform through though (this has to the Tories first act) and the Tory majority will be notionally significantly greater...
    They can't. Boundary Commissions will only report in 2018.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Been trying not to gloat too much, but can't help this one. MikeK, Farage, hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha etc.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    Paradoxically could this be better news for BOO, as Carswell is now the face of UKIP.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    GIN1138 said:

    Fenster said:

    It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.

    UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.

    I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.

    As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.

    Yes, we'll now see Cameron's Tory Party in its true colours. Will it be 'One Nation' as he promised at his count or will that be like Thatcher's promise "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony.", whatever happened to that idea?
    I suspect that he will be forced to swing rightward by his party because of the small majority and I suspect that we'll see Labour and the LibDems, both under new leaders, gaining votes and whittling away at that majority within a year. I expect UKIP to wither.
    So enjoy your triumph Dave, I hope you prove me wrong.
    Get boundary reform through though (this has to the Tories first act) and the Tory majority will be notionally significantly greater...
    Also loads Scottish MPs, since they've massively out-registered everybody else.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 4 mins4 minutes ago

    So three party leaders now likely to resign in ONE DAY?!


    Cameron Rampant.....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    So it's only Carswell then?
  • Another thank you. Well done to the Vanilla system for coping easily with 1k+ threads. It costs but I think the past 24 hours have shown its worth

    Thank you Mike,

    Really great site last night-I was with 3 friends who had never heard of the site-I can safely say you now have 3 more lurkers!

    Also a BIG thank you to TSE :)
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653

    isam said:

    Some people argued that the coalition was more stable than a small majority last time, now we get to see!

    As a coalitionista, that's been my argument. But I think Cameron might have an easier time than Major did, even with a smaller majority. The death of Scottish Labour is key.
    In 1992, Con had 336, Labour 271. This time, Conservatives are about 15 behind that, but Labour are over 40 behind.

    The more Labour and SNP vote together, the more Scottish people will wonder what the point of SLab is.
    Doesn't matter. SLab is irrelevant. At Westminster, they have no further to fall. As Francis Maude put it about his party in Scotland, "we had very little downside". That's now Labour.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    edited May 2015
    dyingswan

    "There is a relentless barrage of propaganda on the BBC from Hardy, Brands Jo and Russell etc etc preaching the sanctimonious line that the left is virtuous and the Conservatives are not. In the end that takes its toll. Conservative minded people will keep their views concealed for fear of being branded -pun intended- heartless."

    I don't think it's that at all. It's all the old fashioned paraphernalia that goes with it. The patriotism the harping back to empire and wrapping themselves in the flag that's uncool. The clue is in the name.

    The problem is that people who like their financial acumen are embarrassed to be associated with their reactionary side. No need for Russell Brand to tell them that.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2015
    Green deposit bet is a loser - I think they've saved 125 out of 561 or thereabouts so far = 22%
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    edited May 2015
    Carswell now looking prudent having spent all that time campaigning in Clacton
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Lord Ashcroft seat polls are a bit of an embarrassment
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Faisal Islam

    Farage defeated in South Thanet ... Will he resign in ten minutes, as promised?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Murray had a book to sell and did an extra show in Bristol on Wednesday. Time waster.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Oh dear

    Farage

    Byeeee..... love ya baby
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    GIN1138 said:

    The end of Farage... How the mighty have fallen...

    He had a shocker of a campaign though.

    To be fair he spent a lot of the campaign in hospital with back problems.
  • Farage losing is a shame in a way. I think he would have livened up the HoC. Burden now falls on Carswell alone. Assume he will now lead UKIP. What a night!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,388
    MikeL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Fenster said:

    It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.

    UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.

    I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.

    As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.

    Yes, we'll now see Cameron's Tory Party in its true colours. Will it be 'One Nation' as he promised at his count or will that be like Thatcher's promise "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony.", whatever happened to that idea?
    I suspect that he will be forced to swing rightward by his party because of the small majority and I suspect that we'll see Labour and the LibDems, both under new leaders, gaining votes and whittling away at that majority within a year. I expect UKIP to wither.
    So enjoy your triumph Dave, I hope you prove me wrong.
    Get boundary reform through though (this has to the Tories first act) and the Tory majority will be notionally significantly greater...
    They can't. Boundary Commissions will only report in 2018.
    Can't they just instruct an immediate review of the boundaries like they did in 2010?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    People's Army? Hmmm.... More like the Walmington-On-Sea Home Guard
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    Farage is a good speaker.
  • TGOHF said:

    Quality line up in Thanet South..

    We had some proper loons!!!!

    Al Murray was probably the most sane :)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2015
    Survation buried accurate poll!

    'Survation Telephone, Ballot Paper Prompt:
    CON 37%
    LAB 31%
    LD 10
    UKIP 11
    GRE 5
    Others (including the SNP) 6%
    Which would have been very close to the final result.

    We had flagged that we were conducting this poll to the Daily Mirror as something we might share as an interesting check on our online vs our telephone methodology, but the results seemed so “out of line” with all the polling conducted by ourselves and our peers – what poll commentators would term an “outlier” – that I “chickened out” of publishing the figures – something I’m sure I’ll always regret.'

    http://survation.com/snatching-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,662
    Patrick said:

    Farage losing is a shame in a way. I think he would have livened up the HoC. Burden now falls on Carswell alone. Assume he will now lead UKIP. What a night!

    Which is probably good for BOO.

    But which is almost certainly bad for UKIP's chances of taking seats off Labour in the North of England.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    currystar said:

    Lord Ashcroft seat polls are a bit of an embarrassment

    Snapshots ;)

    What was his score ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Farage whining about the electoral system.

    He knew the rules, he just buggered up his performance.
This discussion has been closed.