politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is looking like 1992 Redux

Options
2456789

Comments

  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Anyone watching BBC, I've been following SKY all night - how depressed are they?
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Berwickshire is knife edge as is Lamb in Norfolk (as tipped by me)
  • Saltire
    Saltire Posts: 525
    BRS has gone to a recount. Still a chance of the Tories being 2nd in Scotland.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Cons hold Newark by 18,500. Sorry LibDemmers......there is no silver lining
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Which LD MPs are LEFT??
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    RobD said:

    Slackbladder said:

    So pollsters got the vote shares right, but UNS is completely broken?

    Kelner was saying it'll end up CON+7 :D Only ICM came close (a few weeks out)
    Thats what I thought, must be a lot of safe tory seats to come.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCJLandale: I understand that the PM - if he remains as such once all the results are in - would be expected to see the Queen later this morning
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Danny Alexander is gutted.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Slackbladder said:

    RobD said:

    Slackbladder said:

    So pollsters got the vote shares right, but UNS is completely broken?

    Kelner was saying it'll end up CON+7 :D Only ICM came close (a few weeks out)
    Thats what I thought, must be a lot of safe tory seats to come.
    Yep.. most of the south west for starters :D

  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    SkyNews getting a bit confused.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Could my Lab 226-250 seats bet lose on the downside ?
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Scott_P said:

    @LucyMPowell: Pleased and honoured to be re-elected as MP for Manchester Central. But clearly big disappointments for us elsewhere.

    Yes!

    I trust she continues to have an important role in the Labour party......
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Plato said:

    Which LD MPs are LEFT??

    Who knows, but the less well known the better, if what's happened to the top lot bar Clegg is any indication.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnRentoul: Cameron should get new boundaries through this time. Extra height for Labour's mountain next time.

    And might be able to vote Bercow out
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    Slackbladder said:

    So pollsters got the vote shares right, but UNS is completely broken?

    Nope the projection is CON 38, LAB 30, UKIP 13, LD 8.

    UNS bang on.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    I go to bed...I have a work meeting at 11 AM....
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Rugby, and Dorset West
  • currystar
    currystar Posts: 1,171
    Looks like my daughter is getting a new car
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/596544215171145728
  • Life_ina_market_town
    Life_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Presumably Liberal Democrat Ministers' commissions will be determined by the Her Majesty in a few hours.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: Cameron should get new boundaries through this time. Extra height for Labour's mountain next time.

    And might be able to vote Bercow out

    Getting the boundaries is crucial. In fact, changing the law so that Parliament no longer votes on it would be even better.
  • SunnyJim
    SunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Sandpit said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Bercow a goner?

    Where are you hearing this??

    Sorry, I meant as Speaker if the numbers stack like it seems they will.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @britainelects: Tories GAIN Rochester & Strood. Mark Reckless OUT.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    edited May 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/596544215171145728

    TPDEXMP
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Tories GAIN Rochester & Strood. Mark Reckless OUT.



    Pedant - it's a HOLD.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Hell Yes!
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Tories GAIN Rochester & Strood. Mark Reckless OUT.

  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Tories GAIN Rochester & Strood. Mark Reckless OUT.

    Just rejoice at that news.....
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    Politicians like Danny Alexander who have been rejected by their constituents should not be given consolation prizes in the House of Lords.
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    This site has been brilliant tonight. Generally the tv coverage has been awful. Perhaps it has just caught them so unawares they've been incapable of adjusting?

    Pb 10/10
    Sky 7/10
    ITV 5/10
    BBC 3/10
  • Prodicus
    Prodicus Posts: 658

    Contrary to Sky reports, @RobertJenrick in Newark is a CON HOLD #GE2015

    — Mark Wallace (@wallaceme) May 8, 2015
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Tories GAIN Rochester & Strood. Mark Reckless OUT.

    POMWAS
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    edited May 2015
    How do the Lib Dems recover from this?
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Lamb needs to hold on as the only viable stop Farron candidate
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCJLandale: I understand that the PM - if he remains as such once all the results are in - would be expected to see the Queen later this morning

    He'll kiss her ring and then continue as PM.

    Lots of ministries have opened up for a reshuffle. Lots of Tory MPs getting promotions into jobs the LDs were holding.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Tories GAIN Rochester & Strood. Mark Reckless OUT.

    That should put paid to anymore defections.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    SunnyJim said:

    Sandpit said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Bercow a goner?

    Where are you hearing this??

    Sorry, I meant as Speaker if the numbers stack like it seems they will.
    He has enough support on the backbenchers, surely?
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Sky think we have SIX left right now
    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    Which LD MPs are LEFT??

    Who knows, but the less well known the better, if what's happened to the top lot bar Clegg is any indication.
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Tories GAIN Rochester & Strood. Mark Reckless OUT.

    Just rejoice at that news.....
    Hahahaha YESSSS. As soon as someone has a youtube clip please post it.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: Sums up Tory feeling pretty well. RT @claire4devizes: Hallelujah. Mark Reckless out. Don't let the door hit your fat arse as you leave.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Decision for Cameron.

    Does he just let the boundary review continue and report in 2018 with 600 seats.

    Or does he amend the law to go back to 650?

    Remember he will have to get the Statutory Instrument through the Commons and the LORDS.

    I think 4 Con backbenchers rebelled last time.

    It could still be awkward.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    dyedwoolie said:

    Lamb needs to hold on as the only viable stop Farron candidate

    Doesn't matter, the LD are an ex-party.
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Tories GAIN Rochester & Strood. Mark Reckless OUT.

    That should put paid to anymore defections.
    That's a very very good point.

    And actually it's better for Cameron to have a majority of 4 to 6 than a majority of 20.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Con HOLD Chingford
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    Purseybear said:

    This site has been brilliant tonight. Generally the tv coverage has been awful. Perhaps it has just caught them so unawares they've been incapable of adjusting?

    Pb 10/10
    Sky 7/10
    ITV 5/10
    BBC 3/10

    Why the BBC with the vast resources available to them can't even keep a proper running ticker of the results like Sky is unfathomable
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    MikeL said:

    Decision for Cameron.

    Does he just let the boundary review continue and report in 2018 with 600 seats.

    Or does he amend the law to go back to 650?

    Remember he will have to get the Statutory Instrument through the Commons and the LORDS.

    I think 4 Con backbenchers rebelled last time.

    It could still be awkward.

    Hopefully he'll sound out the party first, and compromise on the number if necessary. Getting the review done is essential.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,736
    Danny Alexander very humble in defeat.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @camillalong: FAT ARSE DOWN
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Big swing to Tories in Brigg & Goole:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000596
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Mark Reckless’s ‘fat arse’ (copyright D Cameron) has been removed from Rochester. Tories were so confident diverted resources to other seats..

    Paul Waugh tweet.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Purseybear said:

    This site has been brilliant tonight. Generally the tv coverage has been awful. Perhaps it has just caught them so unawares they've been incapable of adjusting?

    Pb 10/10
    Sky 7/10
    ITV 5/10
    BBC 3/10

    Sky doing best of the TV by keeping it simple: latest seat movements on a 'vidiprinter' bottom of screen, sharper analysis and light on vapid chat.
  • JamesM
    JamesM Posts: 221
    What does a near Conservative majority mean for the Speaker?
  • Prodicus
    Prodicus Posts: 658
    Reckless. Yes.
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    Schadenfreude :):):):):)
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Purseybear said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Tories GAIN Rochester & Strood. Mark Reckless OUT.

    That should put paid to anymore defections.
    That's a very very good point.

    And actually it's better for Cameron to have a majority of 4 to 6 than a majority of 20.
    We will see!
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Odd how we never had a thread in five years about the possibility of LibDems NOT defying mathematics and getting obliterated.

    8% was always going to deliver this bloodbath.
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    Labour unsurprisingly hold Nottingham South.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Oh baby..... I'm in serious money. And I'll collect that sink too.


    CCHQ Press Office retweeted
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects · 2m2 minutes ago
    Tories GAIN Rochester & Strood. Mark Reckless OUT.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    I've updated the thread header about Mark Reckless, I absolutely took no pleasure in doing that, NONE WHATSOEVER
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @krishgm: More Q's mounting : What will all those SNP MPs be able to achieve on austerity now Conservatives have won? Oh, and where's the #EdStone ?
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    numbertwelve said:

    Purseybear said:

    This site has been brilliant tonight. Generally the tv coverage has been awful. Perhaps it has just caught them so unawares they've been incapable of adjusting?

    Pb 10/10
    Sky 7/10
    ITV 5/10
    BBC 3/10

    Why the BBC with the vast resources available to them can't even keep a proper running ticker of the results like Sky is unfathomable
    Both BBC and Sky very slow to put the figures for the seats up too.
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: Sums up Tory feeling pretty well. RT @claire4devizes: Hallelujah. Mark Reckless out. Don't let the door hit your fat arse as you leave.

    The women is a complete idiot. Her flimsy grasp of the real world led to her believing she could ban internet p0rn.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    JamesM said:

    What does a near Conservative majority mean for the Speaker?

    Defenestration with any luck
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    JamesM said:

    What does a near Conservative majority mean for the Speaker?

    Probably nothing, a fair few Tory back-benchers like him.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Betfair thinks Con Maj...
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    Con hold Bournemouth E, and Boston, and Calder Valley
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    Speedy said:

    Slackbladder said:

    So pollsters got the vote shares right, but UNS is completely broken?

    Nope the projection is CON 38, LAB 30, UKIP 13, LD 8.

    UNS bang on.
    But but we were told national UNS had no relevance at all ;-)
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Con hold Boston. Another poor kipper gone.
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    Balls has lost
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    TPD Reckless out - fuck off and don't come back.
  • bunnco
    bunnco Posts: 169
    North Norfolk coming up. Squeaky bum time for Norman Lamb.
  • Prodicus
    Prodicus Posts: 658
    I think Sky have been getting their results from PB.com.
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    Hey - this could be delicious. Ed Balls could be about to deliver the Conservatives their majority.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Purseybear said:

    Balls has lost

    The ultimate cherry on top. As is a Tory majority (LOL), as is TPD.. the list goes on :D:D:D
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Reckless gone hilarious.. Balls gone.. time for a party!!!
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    KentRising said:

    How do the Lib Dems recover from this?

    Much slower than first planned.

    Clegg keeps his seat but disappears from public view (he cannot resign or the seat is lost to the party)
    The others tack to the left hugely - Labour doing worse than expected means there may be an opening there as Lab try to figure out which way they should go.
    Focus in the areas around the few seats they have held and the ones only just lost, and not even stand in the others, with a view to a gentle recovery in 2020, and an attempt to re-enter proper national status in 2025.

    They're bringing Danny Alexander back on to the TV again? Leave the poor man alone, broadcasters. The LDs should not say anything, just hand a note to be read out which just says 'sh*t'.
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    Reckless out, Carswell in - hadn't distinguished between the two..

    All these UKIPers look the same to me.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    edited May 2015
    Plato said:

    Con hold Bournemouth E, and Boston, and Calder Valley

    So UKIP's only chance now for a second seat is Farage.

  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Charnwood, and Witham - it's all solid blue + gains from now on in.
  • DecrepitJohnL
    DecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    RodCrosby said:

    Betfair thinks Con Maj...

    Betfair's rules on that market say 326 is needed, which might or might not raise awkward questions come settlement time.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,736
    Come Eddie Spheroids decision....I am waiting....
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've updated the thread header about Mark Reckless, I absolutely took no pleasure in doing that, NONE WHATSOEVER

    we need a daily thread on his fat arse exit until the Ashes start.....

    could

    not

    have gone ANY better.

    Nige out would be the cherry now. Don't care too much ... isam might though...
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @carrieapples: Conservative GAIN Lewes
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Con gain Lewes!
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MarqueeMark said:

    Odd how we never had a thread in five years about the possibility of LibDems NOT defying mathematics and getting obliterated.

    8% was always going to deliver this bloodbath.

    I have pointed it out, as has RCS. You can only defy gravity for so long...
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    OK UKIP have only 1 seat.

    So in conclusion.
    All pollsters disastrously wrong, LD finished , UKIP going backwards, Tory majority.
    The SNP won the election for the Tories.

    Cameron will have to now govern alone without allies and plenty of moaning over compromises with the SNP and Europe and a tough economy to come.
    Sound like Major in 1992 alright.

    Good morning.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Remember if he goes for a New Act to go back to 650 seats he'll also include the clause that the PM can lay the report before the Queen without Statutory Instrument going before Parliament in 2018.

    He tried that amendment last time when the Government was defeated in 2012.

    If passed it eliminates any risk of it going wrong in 2018.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Con GAIN Lewes.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,736
    Seems very quiet on Thanet South after initial Farage outburst.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    CON GAIN LEWES!!
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Still waiting for Halifax where a Tory gain is strongly tipped.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Plato said:

    CON GAIN LEWES!!

    Fantastic!
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Con take Lewes.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited May 2015
    Damn, Dimbleby, kick a man when he's down:

    You say liberalism never more needed, but also never less wanted it seems
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Seems very quiet on Thanet South after initial Farage outburst.

    Result due at 6-ish, so it's late. Recount?
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    Speedy said:

    OK UKIP have only 1 seat.

    So in conclusion.
    All pollsters disastrously wrong, LD finished , UKIP going backwards, Tory majority.
    The SNP won the election for the Tories.

    Cameron will have to now govern alone without allies and plenty of moaning over compromises with the SNP and Europe and a tough economy to come.
    Sound like Major in 1992 alright.

    Good morning.

    And the betting markets right. But but … ;-)
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,736
    edited May 2015
    Norman Baker gone....plenty of time for looking for latest tin foil hat conspiracies.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    RodCrosby said:

    Betfair thinks Con Maj...

    Well played Rod - your doubters will be eating humble pie.

    JackW and also Chesnut deserve praise too.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Speaker HOLD.
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    Cons gain LEWES
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    this will cheer any reds up

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul · 9m9 minutes ago
    Cameron should get new boundaries through this time. Extra height for Labour's mountain next time.

  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    Is your MP SNP now?
    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: Sums up Tory feeling pretty well. RT @claire4devizes: Hallelujah. Mark Reckless out. Don't let the door hit your fat arse as you leave.

This discussion has been closed.

Categories