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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is looking like 1992 Redux

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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Beaconsfield, Gravesham and on and on and on...

    Tory vote share now stretch to +3 on seats already announced with lots of Tory safe seats to come.

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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    SeanT said:

    LucyJones said:

    Plato said:

    :sunglasses:

    must be almost time for a thread about how winning a majority is really bad news for Dave.

    I thought this was a good election to lose? Or does that no longer apply?

    PB is in Tory buzz mode right now, where the Tories have a majority, the left in England have been decimated, where Labour will never ever get power ever again, and so on. Let everyone celebrate; we'll see in about two years how that celebration is going. Maybe even less than that.
    Heh.
    What does that mean, exactly?
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Scott_P said:

    @jameschappers: Next Lab leader must surely start by admitting last govt spent too much. When QT audience turned on Ed M for denying so, election was lost

    No shit

    They were interviewing Labour voters when I awoke at 5.30 and they were saying that when Ed went into denial about overspending they couldn't trust Labour on the economy.." Its the economy stupid"

    Looks like the media will be the official opposition for some while. Labour are in for some naval gazing
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,294
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 11s12 seconds ago
    Labour GAIN Bristol West.
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    trubluetrublue Posts: 103
    MikeL said:

    Betfair does not count Speaker as Con.

    BBC does.

    Yep looking like that will be the difference between NOM and Con Majority on Betfair.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,277
    When is Ed Balls?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,928
    Owen Jones on Sky now, not looking too happy with the result....
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,416

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Electoral reform back on agenda. But it won’t be PR or AV, it will be pro-Tory boundary changes to entrench English majority

    Implementing long-overdue boundary changes should be the first Act of the new Parliament.

    PR is dead and buried. Not going to happen.
    It doesn't need a new Act.

    Under the law as of TODAY the Boundary Commission are to do a report on 2015 electorates to report in 2018.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    Con hold Wyre Forest, Poole, Rushcliffe, MK North... now on 248

    They're clocking up every few mins
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Top trolling

    @LouiseMensch: We can all agree that the biggest loser of the night is @rustyrockets. Here is the trews, you are a prat. Now sod off.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,517
    Owen Jones questioning FPTP - now that it isn't working for his party!
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    bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    Owen Jones on Sky. Words Fail Me
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    LucyJones said:

    Plato said:

    :sunglasses:

    must be almost time for a thread about how winning a majority is really bad news for Dave.

    I thought this was a good election to lose? Or does that no longer apply?

    PB is in Tory buzz mode right now, where the Tories have a majority, the left in England have been decimated, where Labour will never ever get power ever again, and so on. Let everyone celebrate; we'll see in about two years how that celebration is going. Maybe even less than that.
    But I thought that EICIPM?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,005
    Metro finally realized there is an GE on.

    Oh God Owen Jones on Sky now...its like an embodiment of my twitter timeline.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    anyone know what final vote shares are projected to be?
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    BALLS IMMINENT --- BALLS IMMINENT
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So Scotland vote share is over 50% for SNP?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    David Butler in the BBC election studio.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Ta ta for now Roger Williams , you had quite a good moustache.

    Night night Steve Webb, some people said you were a whizz with the numbers, so I hope some pension consultancy out there has a paycheque with lots of zeros waiting for you.

    Sod off David Ward, you're a f***ing pillock.
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    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,068
    RobD said:

    Was Berwickshire called for SNP?

    Recount, result around 7.30 they say.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @The_Apocalypse

    'PB is in Tory buzz mode right now, where the Tories have a majority, the left in England have been decimated, where Labour will never ever get power ever again, and so on. Let everyone celebrate; we'll see in about two years how that celebration is going. Maybe even less than that.'

    After the new boundaries come in and the reduction of MP's ?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,277
    Is Owen Jones on Sky still 'savouring the panic' at CCHQ?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    When is Ed Balls?

    5 minutes says Sky
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,005
    edited May 2015
    Owen Jones doesn't like the result, so what does he think should be done...we must change the voting system....
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    *** BALLS IMMINENT ***
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,294
    Scott_P said:

    When is Ed Balls?

    5 minutes says Sky
    tease
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    HOw can Labour survive. They have the Greens to the left, UKIP to the typically WWC extreme right and SNP to the centre. It's a NOrwegian Blue.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Imminent declaration at Morely and Outwood, thank God, I can finally go to bed. Really glad I booked today as holiday :grin:
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Little Jones putting the boot into the Labour leadership/campaign
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,928
    HERE COMES BALLS!!!
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Balls grinning.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Worthing West = 249 vs 211 Lab
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MikeL said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Electoral reform back on agenda. But it won’t be PR or AV, it will be pro-Tory boundary changes to entrench English majority

    Implementing long-overdue boundary changes should be the first Act of the new Parliament.

    PR is dead and buried. Not going to happen.
    It doesn't need a new Act.

    Under the law as of TODAY the Boundary Commission are to do a report on 2015 electorates to report in 2018.
    Why wait to 2018? We have a completed report ready, implement it now.

    We can always have another one, fine, but that will be tweaks compared to the resolving the nonsense of differing sizes seats and it being 15 years out of date.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Funny if Balls loses by one vote...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301
    Someone tell TSE!!
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    SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    With them winning just 1 seat does UKIP fall back now? Without Farage in parliament it's hard to see Carswell keeping them in the news on his own.
    Indeed unless there is an EU referendum they will not be a factor on a national stage until the Euro elections in 2019.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,589

    LucyJones said:

    Plato said:

    :sunglasses:

    must be almost time for a thread about how winning a majority is really bad news for Dave.

    I thought this was a good election to lose? Or does that no longer apply?

    PB is in Tory buzz mode right now, where the Tories have a majority, the left in England have been decimated, where Labour will never ever get power ever again, and so on. Let everyone celebrate; we'll see in about two years how that celebration is going. Maybe even less than that.
    All fair enough, but I think they can have the next couple of months to enjoy this remarkable victory.

    Cameron should take this Tory party by the scruff of its neck and make it do whatever he wants - at the moment, they'd probably go for it.

    Anyway, off to work, although now I've been informed how fix the problem of not being able to log into PB from my iPad, I find I am less productive there.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,005
    Bad feeling that fatty spheroids has scraped home.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301
    Prodicus said:

    Balls grinning.

    Meh.
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,790
    trublue said:

    MikeL said:

    Betfair does not count Speaker as Con.

    BBC does.

    Yep looking like that will be the difference between NOM and Con Majority on Betfair.
    That would be a huge betting story if the Tories just miss out on Betfair but actually get their majority.

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour topped 40,000 votes in East Ham:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000679
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    please... I promise to be good for ever and ever .... please...
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,993
    Lab doing poorly, but still winning Bristol West and coming close in Sheffield Hallam. Labour no longer a working class party, now a party representing urban/metropolitan values.

    (Or conversely, Conservatives doing well but still coming nowhere in affluent seats like Bristol West, Sheffield Hallam, Manchester Withington - no longer a party of the middle classes but a party representing, er, whatever the antithesis of urban/metropolitan values is)

    This is an interesting development for our perceptions of the parties. Conservative voters clearly still at large in the country, yet the Conservatives I personally know are so rare as to be individually remarkable when I discover one. Shows what a lot of people there are in the country beyond the circles I move in.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,928
    please Please PLEASE PLEASE
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Prodicus said:

    Balls grinning.

    resigned to his fate or relieved??
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,589
    Dair said:

    HOw can Labour survive. They have the Greens to the left, UKIP to the typically WWC extreme right and SNP to the centre. It's a NOrwegian Blue.

    The problems that will inevitably emerge in a second Cameron ministry should provide opportunity for Lab to recover a bit in England at least.

    Bad feeling that fatty spheroids has scraped home.

    Damn it.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,277
    Prodicus said:

    Balls grinning.

    Shit. Has he hung on? Again?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Kevin_Maguire: Miliband has two choices: resign today or tomorrow http://t.co/vCmKJUnkgC
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    edited May 2015
    Newsnight's Duncan Weldon observes: Worth noting: if Labour hadn't lost a single seat in Scotland this would still be a big Conservative win.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    George is smiling, not sure about Balls
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    bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    North Norfolk - Norman Lamb - Lamb [LibDem] 19299 Steward [Con] 15256 She got close - he had an 11000 maj last time.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,005
    Owen Jones doesn't get it does he...it was all just messaging that was the problem...if they hadn't cut him off, he would have then banged on about the media.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,864
    We've had over 10,000 comments in the last 9 hours.

    Hats off to Robert and Mike
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Stafford 250 vs 211, SNP 55, LD 6 others 22 so far + 1 Kipper
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    tlg86 said:

    Owen Jones questioning FPTP - now that it isn't working for his party!

    Owen Jones has been saying this for years.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,416

    MikeL said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Electoral reform back on agenda. But it won’t be PR or AV, it will be pro-Tory boundary changes to entrench English majority

    Implementing long-overdue boundary changes should be the first Act of the new Parliament.

    PR is dead and buried. Not going to happen.
    It doesn't need a new Act.

    Under the law as of TODAY the Boundary Commission are to do a report on 2015 electorates to report in 2018.
    Why wait to 2018? We have a completed report ready, implement it now.

    We can always have another one, fine, but that will be tweaks compared to the resolving the nonsense of differing sizes seats and it being 15 years out of date.
    No - the report was not completed.

    The work was abandoned halfway through when the law was changed in 2012.

    The law change abandoned it.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301
    Where can I see the Morley declaration?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Prodicus said:

    Balls grinning.

    Next Labour leader?

    Pretty please?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @joeyjonessky: Such a different feel to 2010. Then DC expected to win, result felt scratchy. Now expected scratchy result, feels like huge win.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    LucyJones said:

    Plato said:

    :sunglasses:

    must be almost time for a thread about how winning a majority is really bad news for Dave.

    I thought this was a good election to lose? Or does that no longer apply?

    PB is in Tory buzz mode right now, where the Tories have a majority, the left in England have been decimated, where Labour will never ever get power ever again, and so on. Let everyone celebrate; we'll see in about two years how that celebration is going. Maybe even less than that.
    But I thought that EICIPM?
    I personally was never among the brigade who thought Miliband would /definitely/ be PM. I thought that there would a second election after a Con minority losing the confidence of the house; and that if Miliband were to become PM it would be through a very short-lived Labour minority government anyway. Towards the end I saw Con minority = second election as the most probable outcome.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,005

    tlg86 said:

    Owen Jones questioning FPTP - now that it isn't working for his party!

    Owen Jones has been saying this for years.
    He voted against AV.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,277

    We've had over 10,000 comments in the last 9 hours.

    Hats off to Robert and Mike

    And to you TSE. You've done us all proud.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    Saltire said:

    With them winning just 1 seat does UKIP fall back now? Without Farage in parliament it's hard to see Carswell keeping them in the news on his own.
    Indeed unless there is an EU referendum they will not be a factor on a national stage until the Euro elections in 2019.

    2019 gets them profile before their '2020 strategy' of converting some of their 100-odd 2nd places into wins...
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Another recount for Balls
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    SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Alistair said:

    So Scotland vote share is over 50% for SNP?

    It will go down a very small amount once BRS declares but it is looking likely with it at 50.2% atm
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,294
    Lib Dems hold on in Norfolk N. sky.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    RobD said:

    Where can I see the Morley declaration?

    On here about 50 ms after it's declared :grin:
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658

    We've had over 10,000 comments in the last 9 hours.

    Hats off to Robert and Mike

    And to Mr Eagles!

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    jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    Congratulations to Jackw and his ARSE he kept the faith to the end.
    Thanks to all posters for all your informed views.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,277
    Plato said:

    Another recount for Balls

    Seriously? How many has he had?

    Blinky bugger.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301
    Blue_rog said:

    RobD said:

    Where can I see the Morley declaration?

    On here about 50 ms after it's declared :grin:
    ARGH that's 50ms too late.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,928
    Plato said:

    Another recount for Balls

    I can't take this any more!!!!!!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Recount Balls
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,908
    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Heh

    Drunk? I hope you are :D
    I had a little Nap! (Parenting today)

    But I have allowed myself an early glass of vino. Brilliant, brilliant result. Tory dreamland. Labour are staring into a total abyss.

    Heh.
    An utterly amazing night. I was despairing last night thinking EICIPM.
    As you say, it is good for the country.

    It was long my belief that as people walked to the polling stations they would have a moment of clarity, and realise what is at stake.

    And they seemed to have.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con GAIN Taunton Deane
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,196
    Since the pollsters seem to have been shafted by people changing their minds on the day, and a lot of people seemed to be a little bit vague about the fact that there was an election on until the last minute, maybe they should try just telling the voters there's an election on today and asking how they're voting?
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,063
    dr_spyn said:

    On today's showing is that BBC claim that the licence fee value for money, given their bloody poor coverage of declarations.

    they almost cover about 15 in total whilst waffling in about the future - someone should tell them its a results programme.
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Bye bye John Archibald Sinclair, 3rd Viscount Thurso, there should be more bearded viscounts in parliament, to increase its appeal as a historical tourist attraction.

    Goodnight Jo Swinson, your relentless campaigning against Easter Egg packaging brought the national spotlight onto an oft-overlooked issue.

    Off you trot Adrian Sanders; for being the only Lib Dem to think that the British people could be trusted in an EU referendum, even though you didn't want to leave it yourself, I will give you a gold star with silver highlights for being a Good Egg.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @itvnews: CON Gain Cheadle #GE2015
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,908
    RobD said:

    Blue_rog said:

    RobD said:

    Where can I see the Morley declaration?

    On here about 50 ms after it's declared :grin:
    ARGH that's 50ms too late.
    I'm sure the Hound of Hounslow could get it down a few ms. Is he still banged up?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Given it was meant to declare at 3AM - one wonders just how close it is!
    Sandpit said:

    Plato said:

    Another recount for Balls

    I can't take this any more!!!!!!
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,063
    Plato said:

    Con GAIN Taunton Deane

    Kerching
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,277
    Is this the 2nd recount for Balls?
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Prodicus said:

    We've had over 10,000 comments in the last 9 hours.

    Hats off to Robert and Mike

    And to Mr Eagles!

    Absolutely! this site has been the highlight of tonight's entertainment. My thanks to everyone that has made this possible. I'll make a contribution to the website upkeep if given a link.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301
    Can Cam reach 11m votes?
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Heh

    Drunk? I hope you are :D
    I had a little Nap! (Parenting today)

    But I have allowed myself an early glass of vino. Brilliant, brilliant result. Tory dreamland. Labour are staring into a total abyss.

    Heh.
    An utterly amazing night. I was despairing last night thinking EICIPM.
    As you say, it is good for the country.

    It was long my belief that as people walked to the polling stations they would have a moment of clarity, and realise what is at stake.

    And they seemed to have.
    it is what I hoped would happen.. but I wasn't confident.. I said to friends last night that I was worried , even though I had a gut feel that the polls had to be wrong.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,928

    dr_spyn said:

    On today's showing is that BBC claim that the licence fee value for money, given their bloody poor coverage of declarations.

    they almost cover about 15 in total whilst waffling in about the future - someone should tell them its a results programme.
    Sky on one screen with sound, BBC and Telegraph update pages on one laptop and PB on another - the best election night ever :D
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Scott_P said:

    Recount Balls

    Recount is because majority is less than how many votes?

    Was it the returning officer or did one of the candidates ask for it?
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Plato said:

    Given it was meant to declare at 3AM - one wonders just how close it is!

    Sandpit said:

    Plato said:

    Another recount for Balls

    I can't take this any more!!!!!!
    I would imagine Balls is fractionally behind but wont give up his career....
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Plato said:

    Given it was meant to declare at 3AM - one wonders just how close it is!

    Sandpit said:

    Plato said:

    Another recount for Balls

    I can't take this any more!!!!!!
    I still think it would be delicious if Balls losing was what gave the Tories their majority. Anyway, they have done it. The markets will be going crazy.
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Osborne maj up. Nice.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301
    Sandpit said:

    dr_spyn said:

    On today's showing is that BBC claim that the licence fee value for money, given their bloody poor coverage of declarations.

    they almost cover about 15 in total whilst waffling in about the future - someone should tell them its a results programme.
    Sky on one screen with sound, BBC and Telegraph update pages on one laptop and PB on another - the best election night ever :D
    I have BBC on the TV. BBC results website & sky results website on another, telegraph & andyJS' spreadhseet on another, and PB on my laptop. Glorious.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,277
    Revisiting what I wrote 6 months ago. I'm still pretty pleased with it, although Northfield didn't work out: https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    Is this the 2nd recount for Balls?

    Oh bugger I need another poo! Perhaps my bowels are reacting to the thought of the Balls result.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,928
    edited May 2015
    Plato said:

    Given it was meant to declare at 3AM - one wonders just how close it is!

    Sandpit said:

    Plato said:

    Another recount for Balls

    I can't take this any more!!!!!!
    The first recount, they usually count the piles, maybe of 100 votes. If it's a second recount then they're recounting the votes individually - could take an hour or two.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories gain Cheadle from LDs.
This discussion has been closed.