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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is looking like 1992 Redux

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,005
    Tories going to need DUP...
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,277
    Those 3 Labour gains might have just killed off the overall majority.

    Also still Pudsey et al to come. If they're late, they're close..
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GPW_Portland: All Labour figures pulling out of broadcasts. Ominous.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con HOLD Nhants S and Suffolk South - 266 vs 215
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,163
    Having slept on it it seems obvious what's happened. The English are fed up with the Scots. Sorry but this is ugly and I find it hard to see how anyone can find it very appealing.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    SNP Gain Berwickshire from LDs
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    SNP get Berwickshire.
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Berwickshire goes SNP.

    Drat.

    Just Balls left.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,928
    Berwickshire SNP from LD - Tie for Lab and Con in Scotland!!
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    No Berwickshire
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301
    MEH. We had a golden chance to be the second party in Scotland. :(
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    BRS goes SNP.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    SNP gain Berwickshire by 328 votes over Tories.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Con-Lab tie in Scotland cops @ 8/1
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,231
    Charles said:

    My suggestion for UKIP: elect Nuttal as leader. De-emphasis immigration and Europe and go hell for leather to target Labour's WWC vote in the North/Kent

    Real opportunity to establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.

    I think Suzanne Evans would be better personally. But Nigel really should have stepped back before this GE, brilliant and unfairly maligned as he is.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    But the Pandas win :-(
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,277

    Tories going to need DUP...

    There are two UUP MPs to call upon first.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    So there is 1 MP each in Scotland for Libs, Tories and SLAB - hilarious.

    CON HOLD PUDSEY and Warrington S
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    Con hold Warrington South, and Pudsey.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,867
    Con hold Pudsey.

    You can all thank me now
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2015

    Having slept on it it seems obvious what's happened. The English are fed up with the Scots. Sorry but this is ugly and I find it hard to see how anyone can find it very appealing.

    Not fed up with Scots, just fed up with the SNP moanathon.
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    JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    edited May 2015
    Well at least we know who the next Secretary of State for Scotland is! Step forward David Mundell
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,277
    SeanT said:

    Those two Labour gains are not good for the Tory overall majority.

    Might actually be useful for PRIME MINISTER CAMERON. Keeps his MPs disciplined. Reliance on DUP will make him focus on the Union.
    Err... Some of us have bets on it, my man.
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    FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Hmmm,

    I know feck-owl about betting but I did place this:
    28 Jan 12 / 09:31 Single 1 May 2015 UK General Election Result – General Election Result Conservative Majority @ 13/8 – £AB.CD O/********/########/F
    Foresight maybe...?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Shock Tory hold in Warrington South.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    TGOHF said:

    Hearing from good source that recount requested by Ed Balls. He's behind by 300. #GE2015

    James Mates ITV tweet.

    Something special from the cellar will be chilled to toast his possible demise, tonight.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,867

    But the Pandas win :-(

    How much would it cost to hire a gunman to visit Edinburgh Zoo?
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Berwickshire nailed on Tory gain in 2020!! lmao
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Final Scotland totals:

    SNP 56
    Con 1
    LD 1
    Lab 1
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,005
    Paddy Ashdown ranting about the Tories on Sky.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,073
    So close to 2 tories in Scotland. So close.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Cameron really said he would bring the UK together after 6 weeks of using the Scots as bogeymen?
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    Anyone heard from IOS, Surbiton or the rest of the PBKinnocks ?
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Scotland really did finish with that perfect 56 - 1 - 1 - 1 .
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,416
    This is key now.

    If DUP won't agree to boundary changes under current Act he'll need new Act of Parliament to go back to 650 seats.

    Absolute knife edge because there could be Con rebels so 327ish not enough - new Act required to GUARANTEE they go through.

    He can't risk Statutory Instrument losing in 2018.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    2010 wasn't a 'proper loss'?

    New Statesman:

    The feeling here in the New Statesman office is that this may end up being good for the left; a "proper loss" might prompt some self-examination. Let's wait and see.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/terrible-night-labour-cameron-cruises-victory-ns-liveblog
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,005
    So Miliband's inner circle all going...they are probably still wondering how the free owls for all policy went so wrong....
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301
    Dair said:

    Scotland really did finish with that perfect 56 - 1 - 1 - 1 .

    Greedy SNP :(
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited May 2015
    I had £570 on this election an barring an amazing LD rally I am looking at £738 profit, £748 if Con take the Borders.

    Bugger, spotted an Edinburgh South bet there, take another £15 quid off my total.
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    It's been a rough night.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Oh, it's declared - £738 it is then.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,540
    Scott_P said:

    Is your MP SNP now?

    The MP for the Scottish seat I used to live in is now SNP, yes.
    Ha Ha Ha poetry
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,231
    edited May 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Senior Ed Miliband aide tells me that it is 'news to them' that they have all resigned

    Not their fault, they were polishing the proverbial.
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    shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    Watched from a counting table as EdM, Justine & entourage walked out of the count after his speech @ Doncaster.

    Didn't have the heart to say: Good speech David!..

    Their faces said it all. They know it's the end.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    But the Pandas win :-(

    How much would it cost to hire a gunman to visit Edinburgh Zoo?
    Pandas are going on a grand tour of Scotland to view endangered MPs.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,908
    Freggles said:

    Cameron really said he would bring the UK together after 6 weeks of using the Scots as bogeymen?

    1. he used the SNP as bogeymen, not the Scots
    2. to say the SNP characterised the Cons as bogeymen would qualify as understatement of the year.

    it's politics, innit.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270
    edited May 2015
    Plato Still a little better than the exit poll was predicting for the unionist parties when the SNP were forecast to take every Scottish seat but 1, nonetheless clearly the SNP's night in Scotland, the Tories in England and Wales
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Nicola is very intelligent, focussed and disciplined.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,005
    Tories now 5% clear in the national vote share...Those pollsters who were on BBC and Sky still claiming that they still got the national vote share right are looking even more stupid.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    Con Hold Reading West, Somerset North, Plymouth Sutton, Sittingbourne & Sheppey and Leicestershire S 273 vs 215
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,657
    DavidL said:

    So close to 2 tories in Scotland. So close.

    So close to Tories having twice as many Scottish seats as Labour.....
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    TOPPING said:

    Freggles said:

    Cameron really said he would bring the UK together after 6 weeks of using the Scots as bogeymen?

    1. he used the SNP as bogeymen, not the Scots
    2. to say the SNP characterised the Cons as bogeymen would qualify as understatement of the year.

    it's politics, innit.
    And now there will be real consequences
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,928
    Ashdown had half a point about the LDs doing what the country needed them to do 5 years ago; they did it well, and have suffered at the ballot box for it.

    He then blew it by blaming the Tories for everything and calling them scumbags.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SNP have won 50% of the vote in Scotland.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,540

    The SNP DID NOT win the election for the Tories.

    Speedy said:

    OK UKIP have only 1 seat.

    So in conclusion.
    All pollsters disastrously wrong, LD finished , UKIP going backwards, Tory majority.
    The SNP won the election for the Tories.

    Cameron will have to now govern alone without allies and plenty of moaning over compromises with the SNP and Europe and a tough economy to come.
    Sound like Major in 1992 alright.

    Good morning.

    I think they did. SNP MPs may now be powerless on the opposition benches and tire fairly quickly of turning up, particularly if EVFEL passed, and how can it not now?
    Dream on , with a wafer thin majority I think they will do very well. Certainly better than the previous Labour donkeys. Will be interesting to see old red face having to work for his money.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Still no news from Bedford...or Waveney...
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    AndyJS said:

    SNP gain Berwickshire by 328 votes over Tories.

    Just think how many Tories voted Lib Dem for tactical reasons/
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    trubluetrublue Posts: 103
    Majority still looks too close to call for betting purposes with the speaker rule on Betfair. I wonder how many punters are getting suckered in using TV projections that include the speaker.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    TOPPING said:

    Freggles said:

    Cameron really said he would bring the UK together after 6 weeks of using the Scots as bogeymen?

    1. he used the SNP as bogeymen, not the Scots
    2. to say the SNP characterised the Cons as bogeymen would qualify as understatement of the year.

    it's politics, innit.
    Looking at how the SNP have swept the board, the SNP represent a large part of Scotland's vote. Which in effect means Cameron has demonised a large part of Scotland over this campaign. I sincerely doubt Cameron will bring the UK together - it's more divided than it's ever been before.
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    When is Paddy Ashdown going to eat his hat?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    IT was very close - it would've been so sweet to have 2 MPs in Scotland and go NaNaNa to Slab. Still one each is still hilarious karma.
    HYUFD said:

    Plato Still a little better than the exit poll was predicting for the unionist parties when the SNP were forecast to take every Scottish seat but 1, nonetheless clearly the SNP's night in Scotland, the Tories in England and Wales

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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    edited May 2015
    Third recount at Derby North.

    Luckyguy1983 - Evans is too smarmy.

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,928
    So last month's ICM wins the pollsters' prize? :p
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    Malc

    Congrats to the Nats!

    Ein Reich
    Ein Volk
    Irn Bru
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AndyJS said:

    SNP have won 50% of the vote in Scotland.

    ARSE deniers vindicated.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    How many hats have been eaten?

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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Sandpit said:

    So last month's ICM wins the pollsters' prize? :p

    No. No pollster can possibly possibly even pretend for one second that this is anything other than an unmitigated disaster.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,459
    Terrible night. Not because the Tories won but because we are now into the end game for the UK.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories win Weaver Vale by 806 votes compared to 991 last time:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001024
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301

    Sandpit said:

    So last month's ICM wins the pollsters' prize? :p

    No. No pollster can possibly possibly even pretend for one second that this is anything other than an unmitigated disaster.
    And we mustn't forget how right PB Tories were (because they always learn, obviously)... :D:D
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AndyJS said:
    Nice canvassing TSE.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,928
    Caroline Lucas up now in Pavillion
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,416
    edited May 2015
    trublue said:

    Majority still looks too close to call for betting purposes with the speaker rule on Betfair. I wonder how many punters are getting suckered in using TV projections that include the speaker.

    Might still be OK.

    Con + 20 = 327 with Speaker, 326 without.

    So OK IF NO MORE LOSSES.

    Plus possibility of more gains!
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories hold Plymouth Sutton & Devonport by 523 votes:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000880
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    So who has won the election? JackW!

    Polling disaster. Millions spent and all the pollsters badly, badly underperform the ARSE of a very very old man. A very cool old man.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2015
    Results so far: - Tory 278 – LAB 216 – SNP 56 – LD 8 - UKiP 1.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101

    Nicola is very intelligent, focussed and disciplined.

    I don't doubt she's done significantly better than Salmond would have done. Salmond was always limited by his small c conservative North East roots. Glasgow Nicola had no qualms about driving her tanks straight onto Labour's lawn.....
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    HYUFD said:

    Plato Still a little better than the exit poll was predicting for the unionist parties when the SNP were forecast to take every Scottish seat but 1, nonetheless clearly the SNP's night in Scotland, the Tories in England and Wales

    Tories gained 3 seats in Wales, but Labour still have 25 seats to their 11. So not exactly their night in Wales overall.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,908

    TOPPING said:

    Freggles said:

    Cameron really said he would bring the UK together after 6 weeks of using the Scots as bogeymen?

    1. he used the SNP as bogeymen, not the Scots
    2. to say the SNP characterised the Cons as bogeymen would qualify as understatement of the year.

    it's politics, innit.
    Looking at how the SNP have swept the board, the SNP represent a large part of Scotland's vote. Which in effect means Cameron has demonised a large part of Scotland over this campaign. I sincerely doubt Cameron will bring the UK together - it's more divided than it's ever been before.
    It has exacerbated existing indy divisions of course but it has allowed unionists to vote SNP in the knowledge that the union is not at stake.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270
    Of the 29 seats I've polled in Scotland, the leading party in my snapshot won the seat in 25. Average error on parties’ vote shares was 3.3% @LordAshcroft
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Really pleased for Caroline Lucas. Lot of time for her.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,887
    Greens flatlining.
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    edited May 2015
    So as many Green MPs as UKIP ;-)

    (if the rumours in Thanet South are right.)
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited May 2015
    Huge majority for Caroline Lucas.

    Nearly 8000.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,657

    Con hold Pudsey.

    You can all thank me now

    The nation thanks you.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Massive increase in Lucas's majority in Pavilion.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    damn, I was on the tories to come 2nd @ 19/1 in brighton pavillion.

    another value loser!
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    SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    SNP finish just short of 50% on 1,454,436 vs 1,456,029 for the rest. According to the figures on the BBC.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    looks like the lowest swing in Scotland was Moray where SNP got a 2.5% or so swing from Con to hold.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,277
    I have eight key Con-Lab marginals still to come in:

    Lancaster, Waveney, Plymouth Sutton, Bedford, Keighley, Warwick & Leamington, Norwich North, and Crewe & Nantwich.

    Several of those could go either way.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,928
    One that I think was lost earlier.
    Portsmouth South - Con gain from LD.
    Mike Hancock loses his deposit as an indy but gains his 30k redundancy payment.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/constituencies/E14000884
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,163

    Terrible night. Not because the Tories won but because we are now into the end game for the UK.

    Yep. I wonder how Labour and the Lib Dems will now react. Will they abandon Scotland. I wouldn't be surprised if they support the Tories on EV4EL now.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    Wow, I wake up to a Tory majority!

    Southam Observer completely vindicated!
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    ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 165
    Great results in Portsmouth for the blue army. Taken the Council too.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833

    I have eight key Con-Lab marginals still to come in:

    Lancaster, Waveney, Plymouth Sutton, Bedford, Keighley, Warwick & Leamington, Norwich North, and Crewe & Nantwich.

    Several of those could go either way.

    Plymouth is a Con hold...
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    edited May 2015

    I have eight key Con-Lab marginals still to come in:

    Lancaster, Waveney, Plymouth Sutton, Bedford, Keighley, Warwick & Leamington, Norwich North, and Crewe & Nantwich.

    Several of those could go either way.

    And Morley and Outwood :) Haha

    Or have you already factored it in?
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Freggles said:

    Cameron really said he would bring the UK together after 6 weeks of using the Scots as bogeymen?

    1. he used the SNP as bogeymen, not the Scots
    2. to say the SNP characterised the Cons as bogeymen would qualify as understatement of the year.

    it's politics, innit.
    Looking at how the SNP have swept the board, the SNP represent a large part of Scotland's vote. Which in effect means Cameron has demonised a large part of Scotland over this campaign. I sincerely doubt Cameron will bring the UK together - it's more divided than it's ever been before.
    It has exacerbated existing indy divisions of course but it has allowed unionists to vote SNP in the knowledge that the union is not at stake.
    I would say the union is pretty much at stake. Many better hope the SNP don't win a majority at Holyrood in 2016....
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,270
    Berwick must be nailed on Tory gain now. Lazy buggers in Northumberland not started counting yet.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,657
    Sandpit said:

    One that I think was lost earlier.
    Portsmouth South - Con gain from LD.
    Mike Hancock loses his deposit as an indy but gains his 30k redundancy payment.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/constituencies/E14000884

    Can't we change the law retrospectively on Monday morning? We have the votes.....
This discussion has been closed.