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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is looking like 1992 Redux

SystemSystem Posts: 11,699
edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is looking like 1992 Redux

We are now predicting a Conservative MAJORITY of 3. Finishing with 327 – with a winning post now of 324 @itvnews

Read the full story here


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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    First!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Hell YES. We are officially "ALLLLRRIIIGGGHHHTTTT"
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Selby & Ainsty
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Galloway gone
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    Looks like the SW likes Cameroonian Toryism even more than the regular stuff - if they keep that up, no way back for the LDs there perhaps.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Galloway GAWN !
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Helen Grant has comfortably retained Maidstone despite speculation she was toast.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    Pollsters still not cracked the shy tory problem it seems.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    How could seven pollsters and the last 600 threads got it so wrong?
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Galloway trounced.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Galloway looks ill.
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Galloway out!
    He can come down and split the leftist vote in London in 2016!
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Helen Grant wins in Maidstone with great ease, despite the hype.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    If it's 1992 I'm looking forward for 5 years of Tory collective suicide over Europe, sleaze scandals and financial crisis till 1997 comes.
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,005
    Brom said:

    Galloway gone

    The one bit of good news!!
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    My 1,000-2,000 majority prediction for the blues in Torbay was not too far off the mark. 3,286 in the end.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    pleeaassseee can we be the second party of Scotland. That'd be utterly delicious end to the night (that, and getting a freakin majority!)
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    People's republic of Bradford west. What a shithole
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    @Andy_JS Thanks for all your hard work since I discovered this site.
    AndyJS said:

    LDs fifth in Totnes:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001001

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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    1983 - The longest suicide note in history
    2015 - The largest tombstone in history
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,401
    TGOHF said:

    Galloway GAWN !

    Not sure if I wouldn't prefer him inside the tent...
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Hell Yeah!!!!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    Well Galloway's out, that's a good result at least.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    edited May 2015
    I'm about to doze off, please dear Allah, let me be up for Reckless Balls
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    SimonStClare said:

    How could seven pollsters and the last 600 threads got it so wrong?

    10 pollsters actually.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    :smiley:
    Philip_Thompson said:

    1983 - The longest suicide note in history
    2015 - The largest tombstone in history

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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Good. He is a loathsome man.
    Brom said:

    Galloway gone

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Galloway out. Only Balls to go now..???
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con HOLD Dartford
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    1992 started out pre-poll 'Labour win'. I got home from the opera to 'Exit polls say Con biggest, minority govt'. Woke to 'Con Maj'......

    Galloway losing one of the best results.....I wonder if he will have the most ungracious concession speech.....
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    I don't dare look at my twitter timeline....
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    CarlottaVance said:

    1992 started out pre-poll 'Labour win'. I got home from the opera to 'Exit polls say Con biggest, minority govt'. Woke to 'Con Maj'......

    Galloway losing one of the best results.....I wonder if he will have the most ungracious concession speech.....

    And the same happened today. Insane!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    Galloway out!
    He can come down and split the leftist vote in London in 2016!

    At the least he can run in Tower Hamlets, there's an opening.
  • Options
    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    SimonStClare said:

    How could seven pollsters and the last 600 threads got it so wrong?

    I have been reviewing them. Some of them are priceless!
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Morgan with EASE
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    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Bercow a goner?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    currystar said:

    SimonStClare said:

    How could seven pollsters and the last 600 threads got it so wrong?

    I have been reviewing them. Some of them are priceless!
    Check out IOS' posts from Tue/Wed.. :D
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @LucyMPowell: Pleased and honoured to be re-elected as MP for Manchester Central. But clearly big disappointments for us elsewhere.

    Yes!
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Confirmed Barwell has held Croydon
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Lab hold Wakefield
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Loughborough inc maj for Nicky Morgan
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    SunnyJim said:

    Bercow a goner?

    Holy hell, that can't be happening?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Colne Valley
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    currystar said:

    SimonStClare said:

    How could seven pollsters and the last 600 threads got it so wrong?

    I have been reviewing them. Some of them are priceless!
    They really are.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    edited May 2015
    I praise the professionalism of LD former MPs able to not just shout 'Fecking hell, that was even worse than we thought!' at a camera.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    Con hold Colne Valley
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Just woken up, my book is deeply disappointed by Mundell holding. Any word on BRS?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Nicky Morgan in Loughborough by nearly 10,000.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    Plato said:

    Con hold Loughborough inc maj for Nicky Morgan

    Story of the night...swings to Tories in seats where all the talk was how big the swing to Labour would be.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,902
    92 Redux. Well that worked out well for the Tories.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    What are the last LD seats left to declare?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,197
    RobD said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Bercow a goner?

    Holy hell, that can't be happening?
    I think he means in terms of still being speaker.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    edited May 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm about to doze off, please dear Allah, let me be up for Reckless Balls

    Builders coming in at 7.30. Really want 40 winks. Can't miss the ultimate tabloid headline, Cant miss the trouncing of the TPD

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    Whut?


    https://twitter.com/skyelections/status/596542803053805568
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    LD GAIN NEWARK!
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    SunnyJim said:

    Bercow a goner?

    Where are you hearing this??
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Bercow a goner?

    Holy hell, that can't be happening?
    I think he means in terms of still being speaker.
    LOL okay. Must calm down.
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Yellow Peril Gain Newark.
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    "We are now predicting a Conservative MAJORITY of 3. Finishing with 327 - with a winning post now of 324" - err, doesn't that mean a Con Maj of 6? Amazing how few people can grasp this basic maths ...
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,302
    Con already +17 would give 324

    (BBC goes from 2010 result - so Clacton is a loss).

    Must surely be several more gains to come.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Surely Newark flash is a mistake
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Plato said:

    Con hold Loughborough inc maj for Nicky Morgan

    Lib Dem Gain Newark!!

    Who saw that coming?

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Speedy said:

    LD GAIN NEWARK!

    HOW??
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Whut?


    https://twitter.com/skyelections/status/596542803053805568

    LOL. Intern getting mixed up perhaps.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con GAIN Portsmouth from LDs
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Lib Dems GAIN GAIN GAIN Newark from Cons
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,500
    Assuming the BBC make the election programme iPlayer-able, I must go back and watch all the sneering comments from Lab and Lib Dem talking heads about the exit poll at the start of the programme, just to give myself a good laugh.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sky saying LDs gain Newark

    Shurrrly.....
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    edited May 2015
    SunnyJim said:

    Bercow a goner?

    Surely not, unless Cameron is some sort of wizard?
    Scott_P said:

    @LucyMPowell: Pleased and honoured to be re-elected as MP for Manchester Central. But clearly big disappointments for us elsewhere.

    Yes!

    Perhaps she is actually great MP for Manchester, but there's one who deserves to have been defeated if she's anything like her media ineptness in her own seat.
    currystar said:

    SimonStClare said:

    How could seven pollsters and the last 600 threads got it so wrong?

    I have been reviewing them. Some of them are priceless!
    In hindsight, perhaps I was a little too sure of a Lab plurality, I see that now.

    Gods, we're going to have really pleased, swaggering SNP MPs on our screens from now until independence is declared, aren't we?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    KentRising said:

    Lib Dems GAIN GAIN GAIN Newark from Cons

    They got 1,000 in the by-election???? :o
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,401
    BBC Weather: I can help - we are heading to the sunlit uplands..
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Plato said:

    Con hold Loughborough inc maj for Nicky Morgan

    Lib Dem Gain Newark!!

    Who saw that coming?

    Lies!
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    macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Plato said:

    Con hold Loughborough inc maj for Nicky Morgan

    Story of the night...swings to Tories in seats where all the talk was how big the swing to Labour would be.
    Not from people working the seats, Loughborough was in the bag from way out.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @Messina2012: Things US&UK have in common: completely broken public polling & re-electing their strong leaders.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Con HOLD HOLD HOLD Newark ;-)
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Whut?


    https://twitter.com/skyelections/status/596542803053805568

    How did that happen?
    From 2.6% last year to victory?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Sky showing Con Hold Newark.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Newark, and Kingswood
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    CORRECTION CON HOLD NEWARK
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky saying LDs gain Newark

    Shurrrly.....

    Cannot be, surely. They only scraped 1000 votes in the by election.....

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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Sky has changed it to CON hold.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Whut?


    https://twitter.com/skyelections/status/596542803053805568

    How did that happen?
    From 2.6% last year to victory?
    lol.

    That was funny.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I loathe this nitwit on twitter

    https://twitter.com/dhothersall?lang=en-gb
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited May 2015
    kippers still without an MP not an ex Conservative MP.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky saying LDs gain Newark

    Shurrrly.....

    I remember Ross Perot being given several states at one point in the BBC's 1992 US presidential election coverage because someone pressed the wrong button. I suspect something similar here.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    Come on Balls decision...I have stuff to do....
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    LOL
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    After 450+ results, can't believe some people thought Newark had really gone Lib Dem...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @skyelections: Full election result for #Newark http://t.co/4WAK6i5kAV #GE2015 http://t.co/3iGdXP9Y9s
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Please God no:

    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/596454770900107265
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CORRECTION CON HOLD NEWARK

    Someone needs to go to bed!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    edited May 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @skyelections: Full election result for #Newark http://t.co/4WAK6i5kAV #GE2015 http://t.co/3iGdXP9Y9s

    Did Helmer stand again? (in another seat)
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,712
    So pollsters got the vote shares right, but UNS is completely broken?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    So going back after Newark, how many LD left to declare?
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Alan Duncun returned
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Slackbladder said:

    So pollsters got the vote shares right, but UNS is completely broken?

    Kelner was saying it'll end up CON+7 :D Only ICM came close (a few weeks out)
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Corby goes from Lab to Con..
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    edited May 2015
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Alan Duncun returned

    Yay
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con HOLD Portsmouth N, and Rutland & Melton
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    bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    Sky news ticker now shows NEWARK as Con-HOLD
This discussion has been closed.