corporeal The Tories have never won most seats in Wales, but nonetheless tonight have gained seats like Gower and Vale of Clwyd totally unexpectedly (I did do some phoning in Clwyd myself last Monday, did not expect the Tories to actually take it)
Number Cruncher is the star of this GE...he wrote a very long article about why he though the Tories would win the popular vote by I think 7% and that is looking bang on.
Rod obviously not far out either in terms of seats.
Labour have failed so badly. Ed really is Crap. How can h lose seats in this environment. Worse - how do the Tories deal with Scotland now. This will be fun.
Congratulations to the Green/Labour defectors from Lib Dems who have ushered in this Conservative quasi-majority government. I'm sure that's what you guys wanted.
Monksfield Not at all the SNP have still just fallen a fraction short of 50% and you need 50%+1 to win a referendum, many of their supporters will have voted No but for more powers, indeed last yougov had No winning a rerun indyref 53-47. Devomax on the cards though perhaps in return for EVEL
The Tories massively outspent the other parties in the year running up to polling day and this is a major factor in what has happened. Also I don't think it helped the SNP looking like they would be supporting Labour in government, so English voters have voted to stop that.
that is correct , I heard people talking about the SNP threat.
I think the left needs to sit back and fundamentally re-examine itself. The 'shy Tory' effect in polling has clearly been huge. And it is that way because of the awful nasty demonisation of the right by large sections of the left. We saw overnight that the British people are not chippy, envious, hateful control freaks. Well done the UK! A super result for the country, the pound, our place in the world and our future prospects.
I'm so glad we held Warrington South, we have a great local MP here. I delivered leaflets for the first time last week, to support him as well as the party and seeing him get re-elected is the icing on the cake.
Osborne says SNP proposals for further devolution which are "ready to go" should b welcomed. That's FFA and no more Scottish subsidy to England of £12bn per annum. Sweet.
Osborne says SNP proposals for further devolution which are "ready to go" should b welcomed. That's FFA and no more Scottish subsidy to England of £12bn per annum. Sweet.
You're saying something positive about a Tory? Where's the real Dair gone??
I think the left needs to sit back and fundamentally re-examine itself. The 'shy Tory' effect in polling has clearly been huge. And it is that way because of the awful nasty demonisation of the right by large sections of the left. We saw overnight that the British people are not chippy, envious, hateful control freaks. Well done the UK! A super result for the country, the pound, our place in the world and our future prospects.
Well, we saw 35% aren't. Remember under FPTP, while it's most votes to xyz party, that doesn't represent the British public as a whole - 35% isn't bigger than 65%. Which is why we need electoral reform, although it'll never happen.
I'm so glad we held Warrington South, we have a great local MP here. I delivered leaflets for the first time last week, to support him as well as the party and seeing him get re-elected is the icing on the cake.
Osborne says SNP proposals for further devolution which are "ready to go" should b welcomed. That's FFA and no more Scottish subsidy to England of £12bn per annum. Sweet.
I don't think your maths is right there. No need for billions of welfare cuts now, just FFA and the end of the Barnett formula.
Had 3 hours sleep, just up. Cannot believe what has happened as the bbc show the Tory gains.
Stunning. And stunned.
You and I are losers, Bob. IN THE BEST POSSIBLE WAY.
How did you lose, privately educated rich boy whose career doesn't depend on talent thanks to family ties. A Tory government is your dream. Why not take 20 years to come up with a decent novel when it doesn't matter if you do or not.
I must admit I did not expect my prediction of Conservative 304 to be on the low side! I originally put 319 in the PB.com prediction (round 1) and then downgraded; more fool me.
Labour have failed so badly. Ed really is Crap. How can h lose seats in this environment. Worse - how do the Tories deal with Scotland now. This will be fun.
Please be gentle with us. You've won, you can afford to be magnanimous.
Cameron really said he would bring the UK together after 6 weeks of using the Scots as bogeymen?
1. he used the SNP as bogeymen, not the Scots 2. to say the SNP characterised the Cons as bogeymen would qualify as understatement of the year.
it's politics, innit.
Looking at how the SNP have swept the board, the SNP represent a large part of Scotland's vote. Which in effect means Cameron has demonised a large part of Scotland over this campaign. I sincerely doubt Cameron will bring the UK together - it's more divided than it's ever been before.
It has exacerbated existing indy divisions of course but it has allowed unionists to vote SNP in the knowledge that the union is not at stake.
Cameron really said he would bring the UK together after 6 weeks of using the Scots as bogeymen?
1. he used the SNP as bogeymen, not the Scots 2. to say the SNP characterised the Cons as bogeymen would qualify as understatement of the year.
it's politics, innit.
Looking at how the SNP have swept the board, the SNP represent a large part of Scotland's vote. Which in effect means Cameron has demonised a large part of Scotland over this campaign. I sincerely doubt Cameron will bring the UK together - it's more divided than it's ever been before.
It has exacerbated existing indy divisions of course but it has allowed unionists to vote SNP in the knowledge that the union is not at stake.
I would say the union is pretty much at stake. Many better hope the SNP don't win a majority at Holyrood in 2016....
I modestly accept the title of PB's best pundit, this time round, way ahead of whoever is in second place.
Thanks guys!
You thought Labour would win.
I thought there would be an absolute majority, and that the price of a hung parliament was absolutely ridiculous (it was something like 1/16 yesterday lunchtime) and that it was also absolutely ridiculous that practically the entire commentariat was following the pollsters. I also said there was a big probability of a Tory absolute majority. What I didn't do was make an exact seat prediction as many of the 'experts' here did.
My main message was lay a hung parliament. Some people were even sarcastic in response. By yesterday I was saying that given that there wouldn't be a hung parliament, a Tory absolute majority was likely. Check back through my posts if you wish.
But I won't crow too much at how right I was, because this is an appallingly bad day for the country.
Comments
Con + 20 = 327 with Speaker, 326 without.
So OK IF NO MORE LOSSES.
Plus possibility of more gains!
Majority is nailed on
Thanks guys!
Rod obviously not far out either in terms of seats.
I would urge caution now.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iE8RU4rVmDmtRhjo1Ws3Om3IjrmgUVSbcW-tO7cY-RE/edit#gid=0
They might need to merge...
Stunning. And stunned.
My sources were right - the Tory vote was indeed doing far better in Plymouth than might have been expected!
I hope that in his celebrations Cameron can find a minute to pay tribute to the LDs 2010-15.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000883
There is not that much of a hurry.
But I would still be cautious - almost 10 seats which could go either way.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000684
Con 20,934
LD 20,201
UKIP 6,139
Lab 4,143
Paddy has a hat to eat, I suspect JackW has a portion of humble pie for me...
Agreed about Osborne. Looked very good just now.
Well Done to JackW!
NEW THREAD
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000543
The site's been fab all night so thanks and congratulations to all involved.
UUP havent had a seat in two parliaments. Now the DUP have given them two.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001013
My main message was lay a hung parliament. Some people were even sarcastic in response. By yesterday I was saying that given that there wouldn't be a hung parliament, a Tory absolute majority was likely. Check back through my posts if you wish.
But I won't crow too much at how right I was, because this is an appallingly bad day for the country.