Warming to a theme, is there now a better correlation between population density and Labour vote than there is between income and Conservative vote? (see Bristol West, Sheffield Hallam etc.)
I modestly accept the title of PB's best pundit, this time round, way ahead of whoever is in second place.
Thanks guys!
You thought Labour would win.
Dair - you must be confusing me with someone else. I think my comments stand up very well:
1) 8.23pm, 3 May
"Since WW2, the Tories have only ever fallen spectacularly - in 1945 and 1997, because of a massive wave of support for LAB; in 1964 and 1974 because they were seen as unfit to govern - in the first case, because they couldn't keep their trousers up; in the second, because millions of people wanted the coalminers to kick Heath's butt out of office; and indeed there was also a 'sleaze' factor in 1997."
"These conditions don't pertain now."
"We are now most likely to get either a CON majority government or what we've got now, a CON-LD (majority) coalition.
2)May 3, 10.07am
"Just look at the headlines (and it's them and the pictures that count most):
I WON'T FORM A LABOUR GOVERNMENT...if blah blah
NO LABOUR GOVERNMENT...if blah blah
"You've got a negative there, and the words "Labour government". That's ideal propaganda for the Tory party, towards both the main market (floating voters) and the chatterer market."
"Few care about the condition clause. They'll read "No Labour government" and they'll go out and vote Tory."
(...)
"I wouldn't be at all surprised if there's a Tory absolute majority."
3) 8.19am, 5 May
"I have just laid no overall majority at Betfair at 1.09, one of the most ridiculous prices I have ever seen in a betting market. (The mid-price, 1.085, gives an implied probability of 8% for an absolute majority. Well they did say gambling is a mug's game! I am happy to risk £90 to gain £1000 if CON or LAB get an absolute majority.)"
And yesterday, after polls had opened:
4) 8.28 am, 7 May
"I think anyone who stakes a lot of money on a hung parliament, hoping for a 7-8% return on their investment by tomorrow, is crazy."
"Which of the two main parties looks like a case of 'tick here for a shambles'? Which option looks like a case of 'tick here to avoid a shambles'?"
If you are really interested in checking through my comments, you can do that here.
If you'd followed my tip yesterday morning, you'd have made about 16 times your stake back when the hung parliament price was at its most ridiculous.
Way back on 19 Apr, 10.49am, I wrote "personally I think there will probably be a majority government, either CON or LAB" Towards the end, it was obvious which of them was way in front.
People need to ask themselves why they followed this "hung parliament a dead cert" expert balderdash and missed how the "chaos" meme helped the Tories in such a big way.
My suggestion for UKIP: elect Nuttal as leader. De-emphasis immigration and Europe and go hell for leather to target Labour's WWC vote in the North/Kent
Real opportunity to establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.
Suggestion to the Tories, de-emphasise conservatism and go hell for leather to become the labour party.
Real opportunity to re-establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.
My suggestion for UKIP: elect Nuttal as leader. De-emphasis immigration and Europe and go hell for leather to target Labour's WWC vote in the North/Kent
Real opportunity to establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.
Suggestion to the Tories, de-emphasise conservatism and go hell for leather to become the labour party.
Real opportunity to re-establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.
My suggestion for UKIP: elect Nuttal as leader. De-emphasis immigration and Europe and go hell for leather to target Labour's WWC vote in the North/Kent
Real opportunity to establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.
My suggestion for UKIP: elect Nuttal as leader. De-emphasis immigration and Europe and go hell for leather to target Labour's WWC vote in the North/Kent
Real opportunity to establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.
My suggestion for UKIP: elect Nuttal as leader. De-emphasis immigration and Europe and go hell for leather to target Labour's WWC vote in the North/Kent
Real opportunity to establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.
I think Suzanne Evans would be better personally. But Nigel really should have stepped back before this GE, brilliant and unfairly maligned as he is.
My suggestion for UKIP: elect Nuttal as leader. De-emphasis immigration and Europe and go hell for leather to target Labour's WWC vote in the North/Kent
Real opportunity to establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.
I think Suzanne Evans would be better personally. But Nigel really should have stepped back before this GE, brilliant and unfairly maligned as he is.
My suggestion for UKIP: elect Nuttal as leader. De-emphasis immigration and Europe and go hell for leather to target Labour's WWC vote in the North/Kent
Real opportunity to establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.
Those are real selling points among WWC in the North, strange as it might sound. They need to get the balance right of protecting benefits without looking like they're for the "scroungers"
My suggestion for UKIP: elect Nuttal as leader. De-emphasis immigration and Europe and go hell for leather to target Labour's WWC vote in the North/Kent
Real opportunity to establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.
Those are real selling points among WWC in the North, strange as it might sound. They need to get the balance right of protecting benefits without looking like they're for the "scroungers"
Comments
19000 Chloe Smith [Con]
14000 Jess Asasto [Lab]
6000 UKIP
2000 Grn
5000 majority
Net polls wrong all the way through?
(pollsters' predictions almost all within a narrow band)
->
(across-the-board 'expert' assumption that they were therefore likely to be close to getting it right)
->
(massive support for the Tory meme that voting LAB would be voting for chaos)
1) 8.23pm, 3 May
"Since WW2, the Tories have only ever fallen spectacularly - in 1945 and 1997, because of a massive wave of support for LAB; in 1964 and 1974 because they were seen as unfit to govern - in the first case, because they couldn't keep their trousers up; in the second, because millions of people wanted the coalminers to kick Heath's butt out of office; and indeed there was also a 'sleaze' factor in 1997."
"These conditions don't pertain now."
"We are now most likely to get either a CON majority government or what we've got now, a CON-LD (majority) coalition.
2)May 3, 10.07am
"Just look at the headlines (and it's them and the pictures that count most):
I WON'T FORM A LABOUR GOVERNMENT...if blah blah
NO LABOUR GOVERNMENT...if blah blah
"You've got a negative there, and the words "Labour government". That's ideal propaganda for the Tory party, towards both the main market (floating voters) and the chatterer market."
"Few care about the condition clause. They'll read "No Labour government" and they'll go out and vote Tory."
(...)
"I wouldn't be at all surprised if there's a Tory absolute majority."
3) 8.19am, 5 May
"I have just laid no overall majority at Betfair at 1.09, one of the most ridiculous prices I have ever seen in a betting market. (The mid-price, 1.085, gives an implied probability of 8% for an absolute majority. Well they did say gambling is a mug's game! I am happy to risk £90 to gain £1000 if CON or LAB get an absolute majority.)"
And yesterday, after polls had opened:
4) 8.28 am, 7 May
"I think anyone who stakes a lot of money on a hung parliament, hoping for a 7-8% return on their investment by tomorrow, is crazy."
"Which of the two main parties looks like a case of 'tick here for a shambles'? Which option looks like a case of 'tick here to avoid a shambles'?"
If you are really interested in checking through my comments, you can do that here.
If you'd followed my tip yesterday morning, you'd have made about 16 times your stake back when the hung parliament price was at its most ridiculous.
People need to ask themselves why they followed this "hung parliament a dead cert" expert balderdash and missed how the "chaos" meme helped the Tories in such a big way.
Real opportunity to re-establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.
Why stop now?
Real opportunity to re-establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.
Why stop now?
They need to get the balance right of protecting benefits without looking like they're for the "scroungers"
They need to get the balance right of protecting benefits without looking like they're for the "scroungers"