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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is looking like 1992 Redux

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  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    Norwich North - CON HOLD
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509
    SeanT said:

    Miliband has to resign, today, surely. The Leader that lost Scotland, and did worse than Gordon Brown.

    How crap is he, and what joy that Murphy , Alexander and Balls are available as pall bearers
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,081
    Warming to a theme, is there now a better correlation between population density and Labour vote than there is between income and Conservative vote? (see Bristol West, Sheffield Hallam etc.)
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    NORWICH NORTH
    19000 Chloe Smith [Con]
    14000 Jess Asasto [Lab]
    6000 UKIP
    2000 Grn
    5000 majority
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    SeanT said:

    Osborne looking very statesmanlike on BBC. A good bet to replace Cameron in 2018?

    Now we know PB Tories have reached insane drunk levels once they start thinking George Osborne will be a credible leader for them.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509
    HYUFD said:

    Plato After years of demonising the Tories in Scotland perhaps only fair they end up with the same number of Scottish MPs

    It is an injustice that they held on to even one seat.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Phone polls were right pre bank holiday - 4-6 point leads.

    Net polls wrong all the way through?
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Is NPXMP still XMP ....
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    My only GE bet just came in; Con over 299.5
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    SeanT said:

    Had 3 hours sleep, just up. Cannot believe what has happened as the bbc show the Tory gains.

    Stunning. And stunned.

    You and I are losers, Bob. IN THE BEST POSSIBLE WAY.
    I admire your understatements....
  • John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    The big story should be

    (pollsters' predictions almost all within a narrow band)

    ->

    (across-the-board 'expert' assumption that they were therefore likely to be close to getting it right)

    ->

    (massive support for the Tory meme that voting LAB would be voting for chaos)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Final position +£712
  • John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    edited May 2015
    Dair said:

    John_N said:

    I modestly accept the title of PB's best pundit, this time round, way ahead of whoever is in second place.

    Thanks guys!

    You thought Labour would win.
    Dair - you must be confusing me with someone else. I think my comments stand up very well:

    1) 8.23pm, 3 May

    "Since WW2, the Tories have only ever fallen spectacularly - in 1945 and 1997, because of a massive wave of support for LAB; in 1964 and 1974 because they were seen as unfit to govern - in the first case, because they couldn't keep their trousers up; in the second, because millions of people wanted the coalminers to kick Heath's butt out of office; and indeed there was also a 'sleaze' factor in 1997."

    "These conditions don't pertain now."

    "We are now most likely to get either a CON majority government or what we've got now, a CON-LD (majority) coalition.

    2)May 3, 10.07am

    "Just look at the headlines (and it's them and the pictures that count most):

    I WON'T FORM A LABOUR GOVERNMENT...if blah blah

    NO LABOUR GOVERNMENT...if blah blah

    "You've got a negative there, and the words "Labour government". That's ideal propaganda for the Tory party, towards both the main market (floating voters) and the chatterer market."

    "Few care about the condition clause. They'll read "No Labour government" and they'll go out and vote Tory."

    (...)

    "I wouldn't be at all surprised if there's a Tory absolute majority."

    3) 8.19am, 5 May

    "I have just laid no overall majority at Betfair at 1.09, one of the most ridiculous prices I have ever seen in a betting market. (The mid-price, 1.085, gives an implied probability of 8% for an absolute majority. Well they did say gambling is a mug's game! I am happy to risk £90 to gain £1000 if CON or LAB get an absolute majority.)"

    And yesterday, after polls had opened:

    4) 8.28 am, 7 May

    "I think anyone who stakes a lot of money on a hung parliament, hoping for a 7-8% return on their investment by tomorrow, is crazy."

    "Which of the two main parties looks like a case of 'tick here for a shambles'? Which option looks like a case of 'tick here to avoid a shambles'?"

    If you are really interested in checking through my comments, you can do that here.

    If you'd followed my tip yesterday morning, you'd have made about 16 times your stake back when the hung parliament price was at its most ridiculous.




  • John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    Way back on 19 Apr, 10.49am, I wrote "personally I think there will probably be a majority government, either CON or LAB" Towards the end, it was obvious which of them was way in front.

    People need to ask themselves why they followed this "hung parliament a dead cert" expert balderdash and missed how the "chaos" meme helped the Tories in such a big way.
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    Charles said:

    My suggestion for UKIP: elect Nuttal as leader. De-emphasis immigration and Europe and go hell for leather to target Labour's WWC vote in the North/Kent

    Real opportunity to establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.

    Suggestion to the Tories, de-emphasise conservatism and go hell for leather to become the labour party.

    Real opportunity to re-establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.

    Why stop now?
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    Charles said:

    My suggestion for UKIP: elect Nuttal as leader. De-emphasis immigration and Europe and go hell for leather to target Labour's WWC vote in the North/Kent

    Real opportunity to establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.

    Suggestion to the Tories, de-emphasise conservatism and go hell for leather to become the labour party.

    Real opportunity to re-establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.

    Why stop now?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Charles said:

    My suggestion for UKIP: elect Nuttal as leader. De-emphasis immigration and Europe and go hell for leather to target Labour's WWC vote in the North/Kent

    Real opportunity to establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.

    I think Suzanne Evans would be better personally.
    Too smarmy.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Charles said:

    My suggestion for UKIP: elect Nuttal as leader. De-emphasis immigration and Europe and go hell for leather to target Labour's WWC vote in the North/Kent

    Real opportunity to establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.

    I think Suzanne Evans would be better personally.
    Too smarmy.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Charles said:

    My suggestion for UKIP: elect Nuttal as leader. De-emphasis immigration and Europe and go hell for leather to target Labour's WWC vote in the North/Kent

    Real opportunity to establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.

    I think Suzanne Evans would be better personally. But Nigel really should have stepped back before this GE, brilliant and unfairly maligned as he is.
    Evans is too smarmy.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Charles said:

    My suggestion for UKIP: elect Nuttal as leader. De-emphasis immigration and Europe and go hell for leather to target Labour's WWC vote in the North/Kent

    Real opportunity to establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.

    I think Suzanne Evans would be better personally. But Nigel really should have stepped back before this GE, brilliant and unfairly maligned as he is.
    Evans is too smarmy.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Charles said:

    My suggestion for UKIP: elect Nuttal as leader. De-emphasis immigration and Europe and go hell for leather to target Labour's WWC vote in the North/Kent

    Real opportunity to establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.

    Those are real selling points among WWC in the North, strange as it might sound.
    They need to get the balance right of protecting benefits without looking like they're for the "scroungers"
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Charles said:

    My suggestion for UKIP: elect Nuttal as leader. De-emphasis immigration and Europe and go hell for leather to target Labour's WWC vote in the North/Kent

    Real opportunity to establish your self as one of the major 2 parties.

    Those are real selling points among WWC in the North, strange as it might sound.
    They need to get the balance right of protecting benefits without looking like they're for the "scroungers"
This discussion has been closed.