Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is looking like 1992 Redux

1246789

Comments

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm too tired to do maths. What is the grand total of Conservative gains we expect from the LDs?

    My 0-10 band bet looking err "shaky"
    I'm on 0-10 LD MPs with Skybet at 16/1
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658

    The Day the Polls turned?

    //twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/596547836487020544

    FP of the Guardian. My oh my. Oh that is so very very delicious.. Right. Another bottle, I think. To toast the Guardian's editorial conference today. Hahahahahahahahahahaha. Sod the sleep deficit. Morning, Pollywolly. Lovely day.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Paging tim !!!!

    @matthewchampion: at least George is happy right guys http://t.co/cwllFbrLDu
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Martin Freeman, Russell Brand, Steve Coogan, Eddie Izzard, Ed Miliband can you hear me, Ed Miliband! Your boys took one hell of a beating! Your boys took one hell of a beating!'
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    BBC - Balls not due for 90 mins and TCTC

    FFS, what are they doing in Morley??
    They want as many people as possible to be up for it.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    weejonnie said:

    For sale - 100 bottles of champagne - not needed.

    Contact BBC Catering Department - Salford.

    wanted 100 bottles of Jim Jones koolaid...
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    Saltire said:

    CON hold Maidstone with 10k majority. And some were tipping the Libdems being close....

    The Tories got about 90% of the vote in the mock elections at my daughter's school (in Maidstone). That suggested to me that Ms Grant was safe. That and the fact that my daughter asked me how Helen Grant could afford to pay for so many election posters which were, according to my daughter, just about everywhere you looked.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Which BPC pollster was closest on the UKIP total btw ?
  • must be almost time for a thread about how winning a majority is really bad news for Dave.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    She's still at it !

    @jameskirkup: Lucy Powell: "I don't think we got it wrong in Scotland." Seriously. She actually said that. Now. Tonight.

    Oh, it's a 'misquote'

    @LucyMPowell: @jameskirkup I didn't say that. I said we didn't get (the polls) wrong on Scotland as heavy losses widely predicted. I was asked about polls
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm too tired to do maths. What is the grand total of Conservative gains we expect from the LDs?

    My 0-10 band bet looking err "shaky"
    I'm on 0-10 LD MPs with Skybet at 16/1
    Covered that the other day
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    TORY takes Nick Harvey's seat - that's them all gone in SW IIRC
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    conGain North Devon
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Let's just rejoice at the fact Ed can't enact any of his policies.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Was my only profitable Lib Dem band left !
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,035
    Nick Harvey out in Devon North too.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Con GAIN North Devon.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Martin Freeman, Russell Brand, Steve Coogan, Eddie Izzard, Ed Miliband can you hear me, Ed Miliband! Your boys took one hell of a beating! Your boys took one hell of a beating!'

    LIKE
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    SeanT said:

    Heh

    Drunk? I hope you are :D
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    CONS gain Devon North. Nick Harvey goes.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    must be almost time for a thread about how winning a majority is really bad news for Dave.

    Dave can't win here...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Plato said:

    Eastbourne TO was well up

    More than 78,000 people cast their vote in the Eastbourne Parliamentary election yesterday (Thursday, May 7).

    The official figure - 78,262 - represents 67.94 per cent of the town’s electorate.

    The number is up on the previous election, in 2010, when 60.07 per cent of Eastbourne’s electorate turned out to vote.
    That's wrong - total vote only 52,000.

    78,000 must be the electorate.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766

    must be almost time for a thread about how winning a majority is really bad news for Dave.

    Hahahaha :-D
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @itvnews: CON Gain Dorset Mid & Poole North #GE2015
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Eat your hat paddy
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Looks like the Comres SW marginals poll was the best poll of the entire election
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Devon North gone, that was LDs only hope in SW surely.

    Map is going to be almost solidly blue outside London from the Bristol Channel to the wash, bar some city red dots
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Pulpstar said:

    Which BPC pollster was closest on the UKIP total btw ?

    Not sure, I reckon ComRes, Populus or YouGov, depends on the final figure
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @itvnews: CON Hold Oxford West & Abingdon #GE2015
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    :sunglasses:

    must be almost time for a thread about how winning a majority is really bad news for Dave.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Pulpstar said:

    Which BPC pollster was closest on the UKIP total btw ?

    Not sure, I reckon ComRes, Populus or YouGov, depends on the final figure
    :D
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,035
    Cookie said:

    How many Lib Dem lost deposits so far?

    https://twitter.com/LibDemDeposits/status/596518336244088833
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 6s6 seconds ago
    Graham Stringer 1st out of traps: Labour needs ‘fundamental rethink’ about policy. Rightly says not about 5-wk campaign but last few years.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited May 2015
    William_H said:

    Ashcroft had Labour leading MK South.

    Actually Tories with a majority of 8672

    If he's so rich, how come he ain't smart?

    £5m. Fnarrr.

  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    SeanT said:

    Fucking amazing result for the TORIES. No question.

    Were you here for Galloway? :-) Cable?
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    Plato said:

    :sunglasses:

    must be almost time for a thread about how winning a majority is really bad news for Dave.

    I thought this was a good election to lose? Or does that no longer apply?

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,035
    Caroline in Brighton next!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    LucyJones said:

    Plato said:

    :sunglasses:

    must be almost time for a thread about how winning a majority is really bad news for Dave.

    I thought this was a good election to lose? Or does that no longer apply?

    Eh, better than not winning :D
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Greens probably cost Labour in Brighton Kempton.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    eastbourneherald.co.uk/news/local/election-2015-turnout-of-67-94-per-cent-for-eastbourne-parliamentary-election-1-6732690
    MikeL said:

    Plato said:

    Eastbourne TO was well up

    More than 78,000 people cast their vote in the Eastbourne Parliamentary election yesterday (Thursday, May 7).

    The official figure - 78,262 - represents 67.94 per cent of the town’s electorate.

    The number is up on the previous election, in 2010, when 60.07 per cent of Eastbourne’s electorate turned out to vote.
    That's wrong - total vote only 52,000.

    78,000 must be the electorate.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jessicaelgot: Lab gain Bristol West, blow to the Greens who had hoped to snatch more ex-Lib Dems
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    CON Gain Dorset Mid-West
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    Great Yarmouth - UKIP not even close: 10000 votes to Brandon Lewis's 19000. A poor third place.

    As Bunnco told everyone on Wednesday - the UKIP vote was evaporating here but the bogus PastVoteWeighting for UKIP [from council elections] that knocked-off 5pts from Lewis's raw parliamentary data without touching the Labour data is something that needs to be looked into. Here is the root of the systemic problem in the polling.

    As foretold.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories hold Brighton Kemptown by 690 votes.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    Brighton Kemptown - Con hold under 1000
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Pulpstar said:

    Which BPC pollster was closest on the UKIP total btw ?

    Not sure, I reckon ComRes, Populus or YouGov, depends on the final figure
    Is there a YouGov tonight?

    I predict Lab ahead by 1.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Con +20 now I THINK

    327 with NO MORE GAINS
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Heh

    Drunk? I hope you are :D
    I had a little Nap! (Parenting today)

    But I have allowed myself an early glass of vino. Brilliant, brilliant result. Tory dreamland. Labour are staring into a total abyss.

    Heh.
    An utterly amazing night. I was despairing last night thinking EICIPM.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    Lib Dem HOLD!!!!

    Bristol West
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    LDs hold Bristol W...
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LDs HOLD Bristol W
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Lib Dems hold Bristol West
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @NCPoliticsUK: CON vote share running at +0.7 vs 2010. Wld be first increase in vote % for a govt after >2y term since 1955, first with same PM since 1900
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    MikeL said:

    Con +20 now I THINK

    327 with NO MORE GAINS

    Tory majority. Can't believe it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    WTF......they just showed on Sky that Lib Dem held Bristol West.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    must be almost time for a thread about how winning a majority is really bad news for Dave.

    Hahahaha :-D
    Oh, we'll see them in some places at least.

    Has Cameron done too well? Tory leader to struggle to pass legislation bereft of allies.

    Scotbergs ahead - how Cameron has steered himself to triumphant disaster in taking on the rampant SNP

    And so on.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Lib Dem HOLD Bristol West.

    Thanet South count only just beginning.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Ishmael_X said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Which BPC pollster was closest on the UKIP total btw ?

    Not sure, I reckon ComRes, Populus or YouGov, depends on the final figure
    Is there a YouGov tonight?

    I predict Lab ahead by 1.
    LOL :smile:
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    LucyJones said:

    Plato said:

    :sunglasses:

    must be almost time for a thread about how winning a majority is really bad news for Dave.

    I thought this was a good election to lose? Or does that no longer apply?

    PB is in Tory buzz mode right now, where the Tories have a majority, the left in England have been decimated, where Labour will never ever get power ever again, and so on. Let everyone celebrate; we'll see in about two years how that celebration is going. Maybe even less than that.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: Electoral reform back on agenda. But it won’t be PR or AV, it will be pro-Tory boundary changes to entrench English majority
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Damn, I thought the Lib Dems would win 12 seats.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    On a brighter note, Eddie Izzard’s success rate remains unbroken. :lol:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    WTF......they just showed on Sky that Lib Dem held Bristol West.....

    You what? Another mistake, surely?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    Tories on 242 (+20) now vs 209 Lab (-29)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Saltire said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Which BPC pollster was closest on the UKIP total btw ?

    Not sure, I reckon ComRes, Populus or YouGov, depends on the final figure
    Is there a YouGov tonight?

    I predict Lab ahead by 1.
    LOL :smile:
    I had a little cackle when I read that. HEH
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    The Exit Poll wrongly got the Greens hopes up for a second seat.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Heh

    Drunk? I hope you are :D
    I had a little Nap! (Parenting today)

    But I have allowed myself an early glass of vino. Brilliant, brilliant result. Tory dreamland. Labour are staring into a total abyss.

    Heh.
    An utterly amazing night. I was despairing last night thinking EICIPM.
    EICIPM now seems so far away, merely a nightmare...

    I still want to know where the obelisk is
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Plato said:

    eastbourneherald.co.uk/news/local/election-2015-turnout-of-67-94-per-cent-for-eastbourne-parliamentary-election-1-6732690

    MikeL said:

    Plato said:

    Eastbourne TO was well up

    More than 78,000 people cast their vote in the Eastbourne Parliamentary election yesterday (Thursday, May 7).

    The official figure - 78,262 - represents 67.94 per cent of the town’s electorate.

    The number is up on the previous election, in 2010, when 60.07 per cent of Eastbourne’s electorate turned out to vote.
    That's wrong - total vote only 52,000.

    78,000 must be the electorate.


    Sorry - that link is wrong.

    See BBC results.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Another error: Lab in fact GAIN Bristol West.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    How the f##k have the Lib Dem held Bristol West....they should have been pounded like the proverbial.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jameschappers: Next Lab leader must surely start by admitting last govt spent too much. When QT audience turned on Ed M for denying so, election was lost

    No shit
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Spare a thought for those punters who unloaded on NOM.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Bye bye Simon Wright, I liked your ears, and we need more MPs who went to Imperial instead of Oxbridge.

    Goodbye Jenny Willott, I admired your optimal use of expense allowances.

    Farewell Stephen Williams, I thought your recognition of the Cornish as a national minority was very quaint and a vital use of your ministerial responsibilities for race relations.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,596
    BBC Scotland ticker says LAB gain in Bristol West.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Bristol West won by Labour - so much for that Green surge.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    Lab gain Bristol West!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Was Berwickshire called for SNP?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    CORRECTION LABOUR GAIN BRISTOL WEST
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    So if Cameron offers the SNP FFS/EV4EL does that have the net effect of hugely bulking his majority for things like English boundary changes etc?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Another error: Lab in fact GAIN Bristol West.

    Why do they keep tormenting the LDs with these things, there was no way they were holding that seat?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,035
    AndyJS said:
    Wow, that's an increased majority on 2010 - after the Tories lost the mid-term by-election to Labour following Louise's resignation.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Betfair does not count Speaker as Con.

    BBC does.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,035
    UKIP 94 second places so far.....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Electoral reform back on agenda. But it won’t be PR or AV, it will be pro-Tory boundary changes to entrench English majority

    Implementing long-overdue boundary changes should be the first Act of the new Parliament.

    PR is dead and buried. Not going to happen.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    LDs hold Bristol W...

    That really does cause a problem for Ashcroft. This was his poll for Bristol West:
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/bristol-west/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    Tory vote share now stretch to +3 on seats already announced with lots of Tory safe seats to come.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Right, I'm off to bed, you've all been a wonderful audience.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    RobD said:

    Was Berwickshire called for SNP?

    Still not called.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour have gained Bristol West according to the BBC:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000602
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @MikeL

    'Betfair does not count Speaker as Con.'

    Soon to be ex Speaker.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Heh

    Drunk? I hope you are :D
    I had a little Nap! (Parenting today)

    But I have allowed myself an early glass of vino. Brilliant, brilliant result. Tory dreamland. Labour are staring into a total abyss.

    Heh.
    You may have missed the remark from Lab HQ unattrib.: Ed will be gone by Friday lunchtime.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    LDs hold Bristol W...

    That really does cause a problem for Ashcroft. This was his poll for Bristol West:
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/bristol-west/
    It was a Lab gain.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    Tory vote share now stretch to +3 on seats already announced with lots of Tory safe seats to come.

    Yep, Tories due another 90 seats. Labour only 20 :D
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Heh

    Drunk? I hope you are :D
    I had a little Nap! (Parenting today)

    But I have allowed myself an early glass of vino. Brilliant, brilliant result. Tory dreamland. Labour are staring into a total abyss.

    Heh.
    An utterly amazing night. I was despairing last night thinking EICIPM.
    EICIPM now seems so far away, merely a nightmare...

    I still want to know where the obelisk is

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Heh

    Drunk? I hope you are :D
    I had a little Nap! (Parenting today)

    But I have allowed myself an early glass of vino. Brilliant, brilliant result. Tory dreamland. Labour are staring into a total abyss.

    Heh.
    An utterly amazing night. I was despairing last night thinking EICIPM.
    I still want to know where the obelisk is
    You can buy it here.... for 99p

    http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/291457433121?ssPageName=STRK:MESELX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1555.l2649
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Nothing Cameron offers the SNP will be enough. He could offer then what is clearly everything but the legal fiction of independence, and they would find something with it they would object to, no deal would be done, and they will go for proper independence.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    Right, I'm off to bed, you've all been a wonderful audience.

    Good luck sleeping :D
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,035
    Scott_P said:

    @jameschappers: Next Lab leader must surely start by admitting last govt spent too much. When QT audience turned on Ed M for denying so, election was lost

    No shit

    Thank God, maybe the people woke up to the reality at the last minute...
This discussion has been closed.