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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is looking like 1992 Redux

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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Anyone watching BBC, I've been following SKY all night - how depressed are they?
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Berwickshire is knife edge as is Lamb in Norfolk (as tipped by me)
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    SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    BRS has gone to a recount. Still a chance of the Tories being 2nd in Scotland.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,657
    Cons hold Newark by 18,500. Sorry LibDemmers......there is no silver lining
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Which LD MPs are LEFT??
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    RobD said:

    Slackbladder said:

    So pollsters got the vote shares right, but UNS is completely broken?

    Kelner was saying it'll end up CON+7 :D Only ICM came close (a few weeks out)
    Thats what I thought, must be a lot of safe tory seats to come.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCJLandale: I understand that the PM - if he remains as such once all the results are in - would be expected to see the Queen later this morning
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    Danny Alexander is gutted.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301
    Slackbladder said:

    RobD said:

    Slackbladder said:

    So pollsters got the vote shares right, but UNS is completely broken?

    Kelner was saying it'll end up CON+7 :D Only ICM came close (a few weeks out)
    Thats what I thought, must be a lot of safe tory seats to come.
    Yep.. most of the south west for starters :D

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,277
    SkyNews getting a bit confused.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Could my Lab 226-250 seats bet lose on the downside ?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Scott_P said:

    @LucyMPowell: Pleased and honoured to be re-elected as MP for Manchester Central. But clearly big disappointments for us elsewhere.

    Yes!

    I trust she continues to have an important role in the Labour party......
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,589
    Plato said:

    Which LD MPs are LEFT??

    Who knows, but the less well known the better, if what's happened to the top lot bar Clegg is any indication.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnRentoul: Cameron should get new boundaries through this time. Extra height for Labour's mountain next time.

    And might be able to vote Bercow out
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    Slackbladder said:

    So pollsters got the vote shares right, but UNS is completely broken?

    Nope the projection is CON 38, LAB 30, UKIP 13, LD 8.

    UNS bang on.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    I go to bed...I have a work meeting at 11 AM....
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Rugby, and Dorset West
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    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Looks like my daughter is getting a new car
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,865
    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/596544215171145728
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Presumably Liberal Democrat Ministers' commissions will be determined by the Her Majesty in a few hours.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: Cameron should get new boundaries through this time. Extra height for Labour's mountain next time.

    And might be able to vote Bercow out

    Getting the boundaries is crucial. In fact, changing the law so that Parliament no longer votes on it would be even better.
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    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Sandpit said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Bercow a goner?

    Where are you hearing this??

    Sorry, I meant as Speaker if the numbers stack like it seems they will.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @britainelects: Tories GAIN Rochester & Strood. Mark Reckless OUT.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301
    edited May 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/596544215171145728

    TPDEXMP
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Tories GAIN Rochester & Strood. Mark Reckless OUT.



    Pedant - it's a HOLD.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Hell Yes!
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Tories GAIN Rochester & Strood. Mark Reckless OUT.

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,657
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Tories GAIN Rochester & Strood. Mark Reckless OUT.

    Just rejoice at that news.....
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Politicians like Danny Alexander who have been rejected by their constituents should not be given consolation prizes in the House of Lords.
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    This site has been brilliant tonight. Generally the tv coverage has been awful. Perhaps it has just caught them so unawares they've been incapable of adjusting?

    Pb 10/10
    Sky 7/10
    ITV 5/10
    BBC 3/10
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658

    Contrary to Sky reports, @RobertJenrick in Newark is a CON HOLD #GE2015

    — Mark Wallace (@wallaceme) May 8, 2015
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,925
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Tories GAIN Rochester & Strood. Mark Reckless OUT.

    POMWAS
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    edited May 2015
    How do the Lib Dems recover from this?
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Lamb needs to hold on as the only viable stop Farron candidate
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCJLandale: I understand that the PM - if he remains as such once all the results are in - would be expected to see the Queen later this morning

    He'll kiss her ring and then continue as PM.

    Lots of ministries have opened up for a reshuffle. Lots of Tory MPs getting promotions into jobs the LDs were holding.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Tories GAIN Rochester & Strood. Mark Reckless OUT.

    That should put paid to anymore defections.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,589
    SunnyJim said:

    Sandpit said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Bercow a goner?

    Where are you hearing this??

    Sorry, I meant as Speaker if the numbers stack like it seems they will.
    He has enough support on the backbenchers, surely?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Sky think we have SIX left right now
    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    Which LD MPs are LEFT??

    Who knows, but the less well known the better, if what's happened to the top lot bar Clegg is any indication.
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Tories GAIN Rochester & Strood. Mark Reckless OUT.

    Just rejoice at that news.....
    Hahahaha YESSSS. As soon as someone has a youtube clip please post it.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: Sums up Tory feeling pretty well. RT @claire4devizes: Hallelujah. Mark Reckless out. Don't let the door hit your fat arse as you leave.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,416
    Decision for Cameron.

    Does he just let the boundary review continue and report in 2018 with 600 seats.

    Or does he amend the law to go back to 650?

    Remember he will have to get the Statutory Instrument through the Commons and the LORDS.

    I think 4 Con backbenchers rebelled last time.

    It could still be awkward.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    dyedwoolie said:

    Lamb needs to hold on as the only viable stop Farron candidate

    Doesn't matter, the LD are an ex-party.
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Tories GAIN Rochester & Strood. Mark Reckless OUT.

    That should put paid to anymore defections.
    That's a very very good point.

    And actually it's better for Cameron to have a majority of 4 to 6 than a majority of 20.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con HOLD Chingford
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,925
    Purseybear said:

    This site has been brilliant tonight. Generally the tv coverage has been awful. Perhaps it has just caught them so unawares they've been incapable of adjusting?

    Pb 10/10
    Sky 7/10
    ITV 5/10
    BBC 3/10

    Why the BBC with the vast resources available to them can't even keep a proper running ticker of the results like Sky is unfathomable
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301
    MikeL said:

    Decision for Cameron.

    Does he just let the boundary review continue and report in 2018 with 600 seats.

    Or does he amend the law to go back to 650?

    Remember he will have to get the Statutory Instrument through the Commons and the LORDS.

    I think 4 Con backbenchers rebelled last time.

    It could still be awkward.

    Hopefully he'll sound out the party first, and compromise on the number if necessary. Getting the review done is essential.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,005
    Danny Alexander very humble in defeat.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @camillalong: FAT ARSE DOWN
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Big swing to Tories in Brigg & Goole:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000596
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,294
    Mark Reckless’s ‘fat arse’ (copyright D Cameron) has been removed from Rochester. Tories were so confident diverted resources to other seats..

    Paul Waugh tweet.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    Purseybear said:

    This site has been brilliant tonight. Generally the tv coverage has been awful. Perhaps it has just caught them so unawares they've been incapable of adjusting?

    Pb 10/10
    Sky 7/10
    ITV 5/10
    BBC 3/10

    Sky doing best of the TV by keeping it simple: latest seat movements on a 'vidiprinter' bottom of screen, sharper analysis and light on vapid chat.
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Reckless. Yes.
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    JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    What does a near Conservative majority mean for the Speaker?
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,128
    Schadenfreude :):):):):)
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,517
    Purseybear said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Tories GAIN Rochester & Strood. Mark Reckless OUT.

    That should put paid to anymore defections.
    That's a very very good point.

    And actually it's better for Cameron to have a majority of 4 to 6 than a majority of 20.
    We will see!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,657
    Odd how we never had a thread in five years about the possibility of LibDems NOT defying mathematics and getting obliterated.

    8% was always going to deliver this bloodbath.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,063
    Oh baby..... I'm in serious money. And I'll collect that sink too.


    CCHQ Press Office retweeted
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects · 2m2 minutes ago
    Tories GAIN Rochester & Strood. Mark Reckless OUT.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,887
    Labour unsurprisingly hold Nottingham South.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,865
    I've updated the thread header about Mark Reckless, I absolutely took no pleasure in doing that, NONE WHATSOEVER
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @krishgm: More Q's mounting : What will all those SNP MPs be able to achieve on austerity now Conservatives have won? Oh, and where's the #EdStone ?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    numbertwelve said:

    Purseybear said:

    This site has been brilliant tonight. Generally the tv coverage has been awful. Perhaps it has just caught them so unawares they've been incapable of adjusting?

    Pb 10/10
    Sky 7/10
    ITV 5/10
    BBC 3/10

    Why the BBC with the vast resources available to them can't even keep a proper running ticker of the results like Sky is unfathomable
    Both BBC and Sky very slow to put the figures for the seats up too.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: Sums up Tory feeling pretty well. RT @claire4devizes: Hallelujah. Mark Reckless out. Don't let the door hit your fat arse as you leave.

    The women is a complete idiot. Her flimsy grasp of the real world led to her believing she could ban internet p0rn.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    JamesM said:

    What does a near Conservative majority mean for the Speaker?

    Defenestration with any luck
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,196
    JamesM said:

    What does a near Conservative majority mean for the Speaker?

    Probably nothing, a fair few Tory back-benchers like him.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Betfair thinks Con Maj...
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    Con hold Bournemouth E, and Boston, and Calder Valley
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Speedy said:

    Slackbladder said:

    So pollsters got the vote shares right, but UNS is completely broken?

    Nope the projection is CON 38, LAB 30, UKIP 13, LD 8.

    UNS bang on.
    But but we were told national UNS had no relevance at all ;-)
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Con hold Boston. Another poor kipper gone.
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Balls has lost
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,928
    TPD Reckless out - fuck off and don't come back.
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    bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    North Norfolk coming up. Squeaky bum time for Norman Lamb.
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    I think Sky have been getting their results from PB.com.
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Hey - this could be delicious. Ed Balls could be about to deliver the Conservatives their majority.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301
    Purseybear said:

    Balls has lost

    The ultimate cherry on top. As is a Tory majority (LOL), as is TPD.. the list goes on :D:D:D
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Reckless gone hilarious.. Balls gone.. time for a party!!!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,589
    KentRising said:

    How do the Lib Dems recover from this?

    Much slower than first planned.

    Clegg keeps his seat but disappears from public view (he cannot resign or the seat is lost to the party)
    The others tack to the left hugely - Labour doing worse than expected means there may be an opening there as Lab try to figure out which way they should go.
    Focus in the areas around the few seats they have held and the ones only just lost, and not even stand in the others, with a view to a gentle recovery in 2020, and an attempt to re-enter proper national status in 2025.

    They're bringing Danny Alexander back on to the TV again? Leave the poor man alone, broadcasters. The LDs should not say anything, just hand a note to be read out which just says 'sh*t'.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,908
    Reckless out, Carswell in - hadn't distinguished between the two..

    All these UKIPers look the same to me.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    edited May 2015
    Plato said:

    Con hold Bournemouth E, and Boston, and Calder Valley

    So UKIP's only chance now for a second seat is Farage.

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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Charnwood, and Witham - it's all solid blue + gains from now on in.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    RodCrosby said:

    Betfair thinks Con Maj...

    Betfair's rules on that market say 326 is needed, which might or might not raise awkward questions come settlement time.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,005
    Come Eddie Spheroids decision....I am waiting....
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,063
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've updated the thread header about Mark Reckless, I absolutely took no pleasure in doing that, NONE WHATSOEVER

    we need a daily thread on his fat arse exit until the Ashes start.....

    could

    not

    have gone ANY better.

    Nige out would be the cherry now. Don't care too much ... isam might though...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @carrieapples: Conservative GAIN Lewes
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Con gain Lewes!
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MarqueeMark said:

    Odd how we never had a thread in five years about the possibility of LibDems NOT defying mathematics and getting obliterated.

    8% was always going to deliver this bloodbath.

    I have pointed it out, as has RCS. You can only defy gravity for so long...
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    OK UKIP have only 1 seat.

    So in conclusion.
    All pollsters disastrously wrong, LD finished , UKIP going backwards, Tory majority.
    The SNP won the election for the Tories.

    Cameron will have to now govern alone without allies and plenty of moaning over compromises with the SNP and Europe and a tough economy to come.
    Sound like Major in 1992 alright.

    Good morning.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,416
    Remember if he goes for a New Act to go back to 650 seats he'll also include the clause that the PM can lay the report before the Queen without Statutory Instrument going before Parliament in 2018.

    He tried that amendment last time when the Government was defeated in 2012.

    If passed it eliminates any risk of it going wrong in 2018.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,005
    Seems very quiet on Thanet South after initial Farage outburst.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    Con GAIN Lewes.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    CON GAIN LEWES!!
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Still waiting for Halifax where a Tory gain is strongly tipped.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,657
    Plato said:

    CON GAIN LEWES!!

    Fantastic!
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Con take Lewes.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,589
    edited May 2015
    Damn, Dimbleby, kick a man when he's down:

    You say liberalism never more needed, but also never less wanted it seems
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Seems very quiet on Thanet South after initial Farage outburst.

    Result due at 6-ish, so it's late. Recount?
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Speedy said:

    OK UKIP have only 1 seat.

    So in conclusion.
    All pollsters disastrously wrong, LD finished , UKIP going backwards, Tory majority.
    The SNP won the election for the Tories.

    Cameron will have to now govern alone without allies and plenty of moaning over compromises with the SNP and Europe and a tough economy to come.
    Sound like Major in 1992 alright.

    Good morning.

    And the betting markets right. But but … ;-)
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,005
    edited May 2015
    Norman Baker gone....plenty of time for looking for latest tin foil hat conspiracies.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    RodCrosby said:

    Betfair thinks Con Maj...

    Well played Rod - your doubters will be eating humble pie.

    JackW and also Chesnut deserve praise too.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301
    Speaker HOLD.
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Cons gain LEWES
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,063
    this will cheer any reds up

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul · 9m9 minutes ago
    Cameron should get new boundaries through this time. Extra height for Labour's mountain next time.

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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Is your MP SNP now?
    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: Sums up Tory feeling pretty well. RT @claire4devizes: Hallelujah. Mark Reckless out. Don't let the door hit your fat arse as you leave.

This discussion has been closed.