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  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Danny565 said:

    Lets imagine Tories + Lib Dem's end up say 20 short...could we still be looking at another GE in a few months?

    Labour are spinning they could have a Coalition of the losers, but really, really, that wouldn't work.

    Yes - I think something that's being missed in this is that, even on the basis of the exit poll, although the Tories would be the "winners", it would still be very hard for the Tories to get things through parliament. A new election would beckon, unless the Tories can get a few more seats than the exit.
    That's because Tories are too busy celebrating and thinking Labour will never be the largest party in a parliament ever again. I understand being happy; what I don't understand is why you'd assume based on tonight's results the Tories will govern the UK forever. A tad hyperbolic from many on here.
    No one is making any such assumption.

    PS If you'd like me to talk you through the Sheffield Effect and the EdStone again I'm here all night.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    Can I just say that, from the reports at least, Cameron, Miliband and Clegg have all been putting in the miles over the last week. They must be absolutely exhausted. It's been quite impressive to watch their travel on TV.

    Kudos to all of them, even if at least two are big, stinking losers. ;-)
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658

    To echo an ex member of PB. Socialists never learn.
    For almost 5 years Labour have known that they had a duff Leader. Yet they sat back and ignored the problem and never did anything about it. Will they learn?

    Yes, they will. Have.

    Their dear leader was bought and paid for by their Paymaster, Unite (against the will of MPs and the constituencies). They could not defenestrate Ed without offending Len McCluskey and thus bankrupting the party. After this, McCluskey will install someone electable. The MPs and constituencies will insist on it. Ed is toast.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    I ended up voting LAB in Ilford North. Turnout was supposedly "rather good" according to polling station staff.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767
    pollsters will have to focus on regional swings from now on
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Pulpstar said:

    Could CARMICHAEL be in trouble ?

    Yes. But I can't reckon that seat was exit polled, so hard to tell.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited May 2015
    WTF Ed Balls has literally gone completely grey TONIGHT. He is going to lose.

    It took Jim Murphy a few weeks of being SLAB leader to go completely grey.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Plato said:

    Which has the best coverage - BBC ITV or Sky?

    Al Jazeera?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Thrasher: exit poll showing only a slight swing to Labour in London.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    If Balls loses his seat what does that say about Labour seatcount?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121
    AndyJS said:

    Labour +2.4%.

    That's pathetic for Lab, IMO.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Josias, If Huppert loses by one vote, and that leaves the LDs on 10 seats, then I'm afraid you may be banned from the site.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    I ended up voting LAB in Ilford North. Turnout was supposedly "rather good" according to polling station staff.

    Hello Sunil - thanks for all the charts and humour!

    Dodgy for LAB in London now?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Dair said:

    Another huge UKIP in Sunderland Central.

    I think the Tories are getting ahead of themselves and 15 UKIP is actually possible.

    Green beat Lib Dem again.

    I have long held that UKIP will finish on about 12% of the total vote and will do very well indeed to get 6 seats. Their vote may well be very good in safe seats like Sunderland but I expect it to be nowhere near as strong in Con/Lab marginals.
    Maybe the makeup of the UKIP vote is totally misunderstood? Despite all the thought that the Tories needed to get them sub 10%, maybe actually a much bigger % of their vote is disgruntled Labour than previously thought (especially in the likes of the North East).
    That would bear out Rob Ford's 'Revolt on the Right'.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Thrasher: Tories to do well in East Midlands, their vote share rising.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Apparently the PM was "pleased" with the exit poll.

    Yeah.....

    HELL Yeah!!!!

    Okay, an hour's sleep beckons!
    Noooo. you'll miss the inane analysis from Dimbleby et al. :D
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    SeanT said:

    It is now possible to envisage the entire extinction of Labour, outside London.

    Already dead in Scotland, UKIP harrying them in northern England, PC posed in Wales.

    This is how a great party dies, by electing a quasi-Marxist North London dickhead as leader, then building an Obelisk.

    Okay calm down. Labour have done badly, but they'll be back. People though the Tories would never win again in 1997.
    To be honest, if they lose tonight, Labour will get new leadership and probably more energy and drive. I've always felt that they weren't overkeen on returning to government this time. I'd think they'd probably be in a good position for 2020 if we went the whole parliament.
    I hope you're right.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    JonathanD said:

    Brilliant

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul 2m2 minutes ago
    Neil Kinnock has got his party back now.

    This even better...

    @pollytoynbee: @JohnRentoul Expect much more toxic gloating from the Rentoul Hodges brigade, even before we have the result
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Watch those Green scores!!!

    How many seats will they cost Labour?

    None - Labour will have lost them by their own failures and shortcomings.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,652
    Is it just me or is Mr Balls speaking through a terrified rictus?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Fox jr just texted me. He reckons Green take Norwich South.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Pulpstar, Thrasher (on Sky) reckons the NE and Yorkshire swings from Con to Lab are better than elsewhere, which should aid Balls.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Thrasher: swing in first three results is less than exit poll was predicting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    Danny565 Labour and the SNP combined are still behind the Tories so that is not strictly correct
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited May 2015
    East Midlands strong for Tories...vote up...according to Thrasher on Exit Poll.

    Swings lower to Lab in NE than even Exit Poll suggested.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Can't believe Labour are really pushing the line that the exit poll would leave Cameron unable to secure a majority in Parliament and so Ed Miliband would get a go. There is no way on earth that Labour would try to govern with 239 MPs.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    LOL "swing worse than exit poll was suggesting" LOL
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302
    Thrasher on Sky saying possible Tory gains in the Midlands.

  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    No tory surge in Aberdeen and West Kincardine.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Conservatives increase votes in E Midlands
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676
    AndyJS said:

    Thrasher: exit poll showing only a slight swing to Labour in London.

    Plus he didn't think it would look good for NickP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    rcs1000 said:

    Josias, If Huppert loses by one vote, and that leaves the LDs on 10 seats, then I'm afraid you may be banned from the site.

    Harry voted Tory "THOUGHT HUPPERT WAS SAFE"
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Average 4% swing to Labour in Sunderland's 3 seats...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    SPIN

    Con just rose by 1 to 308
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207

    Is it just me or is Mr Balls speaking through a terrified rictus?

    Not his usual bullish self is he?

    Hur.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    No tory surge in Aberdeen and West Kincardine.

    :'(
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    Conservative doing better than 2010 in the East Midlands according to SKY, music to my ears but no great surprise to me.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Thrasher: early results, swing to LAB worse than exit poll. Midlands likely to do worse than exit poll. CONS could put on seats from exit poll.
    Be still my beating heart.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Guy on Sky who does the exit poll stating they are very confident in its outcome.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    If this election was any from 1970 till 2010 then Labour would have been on course for a 4% swing based on the results so far, and largest party bang on the thousands of the national and constituency polls.
    The Exit Poll is disagreeing though.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,162
    Greens in 4 figures in all NE seats so far. Looking good for them overall.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    surbiton said:

    Conservatives increase votes in E Midlands

    If true, bad news for Nick.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    SPIN

    308, 250, 15.5, 54.5
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Labour civil war. Polly on Rentoul action!
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    edited May 2015
    Prodicus said:

    Thrasher: early results, swing to LAB worse than exit poll. Midlands likely to do worse than exit poll. CONS could put on seats from exit poll.
    Be still my beating heart.

    Looking dire for Labour. With votes lost in Scotland could go backwards.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    Mr. Pulpstar, Thrasher (on Sky) reckons the NE and Yorkshire swings from Con to Lab are better than elsewhere, which should aid Balls.

    He's part of a fairly unlikely contingency bet right now so it shouldn't matter
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Come on LibDems. Don't get less than 11...

    How gutted would you be if your 11-20 bet lost on the downside?
    I won't actually lose money as I had a covering bet at 16-1. But there's a multi thousand pound difference between 10 seats and 11 seats...
    Ha, like father like son. :)
    Good luck for 11 then!!
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    AndyJS said:

    Thrasher: exit poll showing only a slight swing to Labour in London.

    Hi Andy I don't think that's quite what he said. I thought he said the swing in London to Labour is slightly above the national average but not by as much as the opinion polls were suggesting.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    It will be a very fractious Parliament, that is for sure. Can't see it lasting five years.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    surbiton said:

    Conservatives increase votes in E Midlands

    If true, bad news for Nick.
    If Labour only wins one seat from Tories in East Midlands it'll be Broxtowe IMO.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Average UKIP rise 17.2%
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    Time for a new thread maybe - BALLS DEEP IN TROUBLE?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Balls coherent and impressive on BBC.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 Labour and the SNP combined are still behind the Tories so that is not strictly correct

    Sure, there's no chance at all Labour would get into govt on these figures. But they might still be able to unite to vote against the Tories (hence new election).
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Wishing I had a spread bet on Lib Dem lost deposits ...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: Essentially the exit poll says that Labour are putting on votes in the wrong places on an epic scale... And not enough votes generally.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531

    SeanT said:

    murali_s said:

    Terrible exit poll for Labour and a superb one for the Tories.

    I'm a little devastated obviously but if this mirrors the actual results then congrats to all the Tories on here.

    Don't be to downbeat, most of us Tories have doubts about this poll.
    I have doubts, but I am now fairly sure Cameron will be PM again, and Ed Miliband will be gone.
    This is massively silly speculation at this stage, but if Labour did lose, and lose badly, would Ed have to step down as leader? And if he did, would he also think: "sod this!" and resign his seat, especially if pushed from the leadership?

    Although it would be more fun if Labour lost heavily and Ed stayed on ...
    Kinnock stayed on after 1987, promptly losing in 92.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    JonathanD said:

    Brilliant

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul 2m2 minutes ago
    Neil Kinnock has got his party back now.

    LMAO at the misplaced triumphalism. The main reason for this disaster is Labour being wiped out by a party on their LEFT in Scotland.
    Ludicrous. The SNP do well in Scotland as a leftwing party because they do not have to raise the taxes to finance the public spending they disburse. Their "lefty" popularity is an hallucination.

    Cameron, as next PM, should give them Full Fiscal Autonomy, or something close.
    The left do well in Scotland because right leaning Scots are more likely to move elsewhere in the UK.

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767
    Prodicus said:

    Labour civil war. Polly on Rentoul action!

    Is Rentoul deemed labour still. Didn't think he was pure of heart enough these days
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Ed Balls looks and sounds awful. He must be out.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    The Shy Tories guy at Number Cruncher AND Kellner BOTH said they have never found a result where the party with the most popular leader lost an election. Dave lead Ed by miles almost down to the wire.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,678
    Ed Balls reminding me why I'd dearly love him to do a Portillo right now on BBC
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    Balls saying Cameron on knife edge.

    But is Balls himself on a knife edge????????????
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Balls describes Miliband as "Centre centre left"
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    RodCrosby said:

    surbiton said:

    Conservatives increase votes in E Midlands

    If true, bad news for Nick.
    Oh please let it be
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Odds on ukip are drifting in south thanet.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    Time for a new thread maybe - BALLS DEEP IN TROUBLE?

    Paging TSE.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Come on LibDems. Don't get less than 11...

    How gutted would you be if your 11-20 bet lost on the downside?
    I won't actually lose money as I had a covering bet at 16-1. But there's a multi thousand pound difference between 10 seats and 11 seats...
    Ha, like father like son. :)
    Good luck for 11 then!!
    Oi! I win big on 11-20 but I win even bigger on 1-10 :-)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: Essentially the exit poll says that Labour are putting on votes in the wrong places on an epic scale... And not enough votes generally.

    As predicted by yours truly ;-)

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    SeanT said:

    murali_s said:

    Terrible exit poll for Labour and a superb one for the Tories.

    I'm a little devastated obviously but if this mirrors the actual results then congrats to all the Tories on here.

    Don't be to downbeat, most of us Tories have doubts about this poll.
    I have doubts, but I am now fairly sure Cameron will be PM again, and Ed Miliband will be gone.
    This is massively silly speculation at this stage, but if Labour did lose, and lose badly, would Ed have to step down as leader? And if he did, would he also think: "sod this!" and resign his seat, especially if pushed from the leadership?

    Although it would be more fun if Labour lost heavily and Ed stayed on ...
    Kinnock stayed on after 1987, promptly losing in 92.
    He was alllllrrriiiiggghhhhtttt
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690

    Ed Balls looks and sounds awful. He must be out.

    He knows he won't be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121
    Balls know's the games up for Labour, IMO.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    To echo an ex member of PB. Socialists never learn.
    For almost 5 years Labour have known that they had a duff Leader. Yet they sat back and ignored the problem and never did anything about it. Will they learn?

    What other leaders were available?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    Looks like an early night.

    JackW looks amazingly accurate at this stage.

    Balls talking Balls if Con have 20 or more seats than Lab IMO
  • JazJaz Posts: 21
    If cons hold Broxtowe, it will be a miracle. It's not going to happen folks.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Even after picking up in recent days, Ed Mil is STILL not even as popular as Dave's worst ratings.
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361

    Is it just me or is Mr Balls speaking through a terrified rictus?

    Not his usual bullish self is he?

    Hur.....
    He's not quite with it is he?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Ishmael_X said:

    Danny565 said:

    Lets imagine Tories + Lib Dem's end up say 20 short...could we still be looking at another GE in a few months?

    Labour are spinning they could have a Coalition of the losers, but really, really, that wouldn't work.

    Yes - I think something that's being missed in this is that, even on the basis of the exit poll, although the Tories would be the "winners", it would still be very hard for the Tories to get things through parliament. A new election would beckon, unless the Tories can get a few more seats than the exit.
    That's because Tories are too busy celebrating and thinking Labour will never be the largest party in a parliament ever again. I understand being happy; what I don't understand is why you'd assume based on tonight's results the Tories will govern the UK forever. A tad hyperbolic from many on here.
    No one is making any such assumption.

    PS If you'd like me to talk you through the Sheffield Effect and the EdStone again I'm here all night.
    You really think the Conservatives being ahead by 77 is due to EdStone? Really? It's probably the SNP effect combined with Miliband's approval ratings, and people have little confidence in Labour's competence.

    And some are making such assumptions, claiming Labour are becoming 'obsolete', and that Labour will become 'extinct' outside of London, and are collapsing 'piece by piece, region by region'.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    They keep talking about a majority being 326. How many Sinn Fein MPs are there, and do they still not turn up?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Speedy said:

    3rd Sunderland swing to Labour 2.5, UKIP second up 16.

    You'd expect swing in safe seats to be much smaller than average. Simply less votes to move across to them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    What time's Nuneaton expected? Around 1.30am?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    NoEasyDay said:

    RodCrosby said:

    surbiton said:

    Conservatives increase votes in E Midlands

    If true, bad news for Nick.
    Oh please let it be
    As much as I like our Nick, I'd prefer Soubry to win. Always enjoy watching her gesticulate from the back benches in PMQs.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    The exit poll is predicting about 20 Labour gains assuming 40 losses in Scotland. Considering that they are probably going to get atleast 10 Liberal ones that does not leave many from the Tories at all.
    Will Nick Palmer be one of the few gains??
  • Farage in trouble
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676
    The reality is that in the N-E so far it has been overwhelmingly Lab (forget the swings, they have huge majorities).

    Which means that whole economic communities are not feeling the recovery, such as it is, and perhaps feel left out of economic progress that has been made for the past generation and more.

    That is something that any new govt needs to address.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    What time's Nuneaton expected? Around 1.30am?

    election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_by_time.php
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582

    Thrasher on Sky saying possible Tory gains in the Midlands.

    Ahem ...

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690

    Looks like an early night.

    JackW looks amazingly accurate at this stage.

    Balls talking Balls if Con have 20 or more seats than Lab IMO

    Oi!

    I was much more accurate: lower on LDs than JackW, higher on the Cons
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    If you're reading this, Prime Minister... *waves*
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: Essentially the exit poll says that Labour are putting on votes in the wrong places on an epic scale... And not enough votes generally.

    As predicted by yours truly ;-)

    We discussed this earlier - Lord Ashcrofts 3k poll highlighted it.

    OGHs prediction profoundly different to the exit poll.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Saltire said:

    The exit poll is predicting about 20 Labour gains assuming 40 losses in Scotland. Considering that they are probably going to get atleast 10 Liberal ones that does not leave many from the Tories at all.
    Will Nick Palmer be one of the few gains??

    I really hope not. His complacency was pretty sad
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Thanks, Miss Plato.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,892
    edited May 2015
    Didn't the DUP poll even worse than the SNP in polls of prospective coalition partners?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    DUP being honest 'there will be a price to pay'

  • paulyorkpaulyork Posts: 50
    Can ukip get over 2 seats even without farage. I think they can.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    edited May 2015
    RobD said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    RodCrosby said:

    surbiton said:

    Conservatives increase votes in E Midlands

    If true, bad news for Nick.
    Oh please let it be
    As much as I like our Nick, I'd prefer Soubry to win. Always enjoy watching her gesticulate from the back benches in PMQs.
    I agree entirely: Nick is one of the best posters on PB, but I'm afraid Soubry is a class act. I expect her to be promoted if she wins.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    Ave_it said:

    I ended up voting LAB in Ilford North. Turnout was supposedly "rather good" according to polling station staff.

    Hello Sunil - thanks for all the charts and humour!

    Dodgy for LAB in London now?
    You're welcome!

    But I almost flipped a coin, could easily have gone for the Blues :)

    If the Exit Poll is correct, then does that make today VE Day - Victory Over Ed day!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    What time's Nuneaton expected? Around 1.30am?

    Around 1am, could be 1:30.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    A 1,000 comments in less than two hours.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Jack W, apologies I thought weird Ed was going to be in the moving truck on Friday, should have had faith.
This discussion has been closed.