The exit poll is predicting about 20 Labour gains assuming 40 losses in Scotland. Considering that they are probably going to get atleast 10 Liberal ones that does not leave many from the Tories at all. Will Nick Palmer be one of the few gains??
I really hope not. His complacency was pretty sad
Clearly false bravado, if he was so confident he would need to have said very little.
It seems we need to wait for the Nuneaton result to gauge if the exit poll is anywhere near correct. If what Thrasher is saying is correct then Labour will struggle to win this, if they do win in line with projected national swing then the rest of the polling industry can breath a bit easier and perhaps the thing aint over
Bernard Ponsonby to Willie Rennie while joking about it still being evening not quite morning "you might not want to wake up in the morning to face this".
The reality is that in the N-E so far it has been overwhelmingly Lab (forget the swings, they have huge majorities).
Which means that whole economic communities are not feeling the recovery, such as it is, and perhaps feel left out of economic progress that has been made for the past generation and more.
That is something that any new govt needs to address.
Labour have picked up a couple of hundred votes in their strongest area. Get real. Going backwards.
To echo an ex member of PB. Socialists never learn. For almost 5 years Labour have known that they had a duff Leader. Yet they sat back and ignored the problem and never did anything about it. Will they learn?
Yes, they will. Have.
Their dear leader was bought and paid for by their Paymaster, Unite (against the will of MPs and the constituencies). They could not defenestrate Ed without offending Len McCluskey and thus bankrupting the party. After this, McCluskey will install someone electable. The MPs and constituencies will insist on it. Ed is toast.
If they choose Burnham next time Labour will do worse, McCluskey should learn his lesson and let the more qualified set the agenda.
Danny565 Labour and the SNP combined are still behind the Tories so that is not strictly correct
Sure, there's no chance at all Labour would get into govt on these figures. But they might still be able to unite to vote against the Tories (hence new election).
If the SNP have 58 seats then there's no way they would want another election. They'd have to find some way to back track on their "anti-Tory" rhetoric. Probably some sort of deal for extra powers (which the Tories would probably be quite happy to give them if it cost Scotland money).
Really, really, honestly don't see Labour winning Soton Itchen. It is a southern seat, and Labour are simply done down here. No tellers today. Have seen only 2 posters in 2 constituencies down here.
If the exit poll is correct it's a shockingly good yet pyrrhic victory for Cameron.
He won't want to form a government with a tiny majority. His hope of governing with the Lib Dems will be dashed (they'll surely shun it anyway) and he will be facing a difficult Major'esque few years as PM.
@BBCAllegra: Watching list of poss Tory gains: Mary MacLeoud hangs on! Senior Tory strategist told me they'd get Norman Baker Lewes. I laughed. Silly me?
Lets imagine Tories + Lib Dem's end up say 20 short...could we still be looking at another GE in a few months?
Labour are spinning they could have a Coalition of the losers, but really, really, that wouldn't work.
Yes - I think something that's being missed in this is that, even on the basis of the exit poll, although the Tories would be the "winners", it would still be very hard for the Tories to get things through parliament. A new election would beckon, unless the Tories can get a few more seats than the exit.
That's because Tories are too busy celebrating and thinking Labour will never be the largest party in a parliament ever again. I understand being happy; what I don't understand is why you'd assume based on tonight's results the Tories will govern the UK forever. A tad hyperbolic from many on here.
No one is making any such assumption.
PS If you'd like me to talk you through the Sheffield Effect and the EdStone again I'm here all night.
You really think the Conservatives being ahead by 77 is due to EdStone? Really? It's probably the SNP effect combined with Miliband's approval ratings, and people have little confidence in Labour's competence.
And some are making such assumptions, claiming Labour are becoming 'obsolete', and that Labour will become 'extinct' outside of London, and are collapsing 'piece by piece, region by region'.
the SNP effect = ed is crap (losing 59 seats in one go doesn't for some reason "not count" because they are Scottish seats)
Miliband's approval ratings = ed is crap
the Sheffield Effect = the electorate suddenly takes on board at a specific moment in the fortnight before the election that the LOTO is too crap to govern.
And if Labour collapses it will be replaced by something else, so it won't be tories for ever.
Mrs Urquhart, somebody who fits exactly the demographic Miliband was trying to woo and agrees with many of the problems he identified and was going to vote Labour.
She informed me earlier in the end she couldn't do it...her description was "In the end, I wouldn't trust him to open a packet of crisps"...I said, but you might get Cameron then and she said so be it.
I honestly shocked at the time, but maybe there has been a hell of a lot more "Mrs Urquhart"'s up and down the country..
Average 4% swing to Labour in Sunderland's 3 seats...
Turnout almost exactly 2010 figures.
Any Geordies, Mackems or Foggies care to comment? Was the Scottish question particularly strong in the NE? Did the kippers pledge to end Barnett go down particularly well there?
To echo an ex member of PB. Socialists never learn. For almost 5 years Labour have known that they had a duff Leader. Yet they sat back and ignored the problem and never did anything about it. Will they learn?
Yes, they will. Have.
Their dear leader was bought and paid for by their Paymaster, Unite (against the will of MPs and the constituencies). They could not defenestrate Ed without offending Len McCluskey and thus bankrupting the party. After this, McCluskey will install someone electable. The MPs and constituencies will insist on it. Ed is toast.
If they choose Burnham next time Labour will do worse, McCluskey should learn his lesson and let the more qualified set the agenda.
Butcher Burnham would be my preferred choice as Labour leader by a long way. He'd lose worse than Miliband. So much blood on his hands.
Lets imagine Tories + Lib Dem's end up say 20 short...could we still be looking at another GE in a few months?
Labour are spinning they could have a Coalition of the losers, but really, really, that wouldn't work.
Yes - I think something that's being missed in this is that, even on the basis of the exit poll, although the Tories would be the "winners", it would still be very hard for the Tories to get things through parliament. A new election would beckon, unless the Tories can get a few more seats than the exit.
That's because Tories are too busy celebrating and thinking Labour will never be the largest party in a parliament ever again. I understand being happy; what I don't understand is why you'd assume based on tonight's results the Tories will govern the UK forever. A tad hyperbolic from many on here.
No one is making any such assumption.
PS If you'd like me to talk you through the Sheffield Effect and the EdStone again I'm here all night.
You really think the Conservatives being ahead by 77 is due to EdStone? Really? It's probably the SNP effect combined with Miliband's approval ratings, and people have little confidence in Labour's competence.
And some are making such assumptions, claiming Labour are becoming 'obsolete', and that Labour will become 'extinct' outside of London, and are collapsing 'piece by piece, region by region'.
the SNP effect = ed is crap (losing 59 seats in one go doesn't for some reason "not count" because they are Scottish seats)
Miliband's approval ratings = ed is crap
the Sheffield Effect = the electorate suddenly takes on board at a specific moment in the fortnight before the election that the LOTO is too crap to govern.
And if Labour collapses it will be replaced by something else, so it won't be tories for ever.
If were're looking at the polls, the Sheffield Effect has been going on for five years now. Miliband's ratings, for the most part have always been pretty bad. And who do think will replace Labour as the main centre-left party in England - unless of course, you think the centre-left are no longer viable in England....
Comments
every dog has his day ! If this result is right Romney is history :-)
I'd reckon they'll also get Thurrock and Castle Point
@alstewitn: #GE2015 David Blunkett pretty well concedes on @itvnews but knows how the numbers work. Good man, & numerate.
Comment of the night, so far?
Lewes
Thornbury
Gedling
Kingston
Southport
Derby North
Derbyshire NE
Brighton Kemptown
Colne Valley
Hove
Enfield North
Croydon Central
Ipswich
Nuneaton
Wolv' SW
Warwicks N
Hendon
Cambridge
Cardiff North
Also Mr S was on for 23 seats or less between Con and Lab? OUCH.
I hope Clegg, Alexander, Laws lose. Its difficult to think who these 10 are.
2015 electorate: 46.425m
2010 electorate: 45.608m
Up 1.8%
Per me: I think it is up less than population.
So what is the second UKIP seat?
He won't want to form a government with a tiny majority. His hope of governing with the Lib Dems will be dashed (they'll surely shun it anyway) and he will be facing a difficult Major'esque few years as PM.
Miliband's approval ratings = ed is crap
the Sheffield Effect = the electorate suddenly takes on board at a specific moment in the fortnight before the election that the LOTO is too crap to govern.
And if Labour collapses it will be replaced by something else, so it won't be tories for ever.
But what a stunning exit poll.
Mrs Urquhart, somebody who fits exactly the demographic Miliband was trying to woo and agrees with many of the problems he identified and was going to vote Labour.
She informed me earlier in the end she couldn't do it...her description was "In the end, I wouldn't trust him to open a packet of crisps"...I said, but you might get Cameron then and she said so be it.
I honestly shocked at the time, but maybe there has been a hell of a lot more "Mrs Urquhart"'s up and down the country..
Exit poll based on LibDems losing Cambridge, Lewes and Thornbury & Yate .... Hhhmmm
Any Geordies, Mackems or Foggies care to comment? Was the Scottish question particularly strong in the NE? Did the kippers pledge to end Barnett go down particularly well there?
I did put £30 on a Conservative majority at 13/2. That does look lost but worth a punt.
Best Tory ever.