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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504

    So, have the haters misunderestimated Dave again?

    I wonder who'll be the first to say he's been a luck general. ;-)

    If, indeed, he has been lucky.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    Plato said:

    My LD contacts said that the LDs were suffering from a lot of unformed hatred that was an incoherent mishmash of Tuition Fees/Coalition and oddly losses to Kippers as protest party fodder.

    I was surprised by the latter.

    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sunderland result points to Tory majority IMO.

    Nonsense. It's a hefty swing to Labour.
    Either a lot of churn or most of those kippers in Sunderland came from UKIP, BNP, LD and Ind. Labour poll up 2000 and Con down 1000.

    Con vote holding up well.
    I've been saying the latter over the past month. It was, IMHO, readable from several of Ashcroft's marginal polls.

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    isam said:

    Speedy said:

    Swing of 4% to Labour, but UKIP leapfrogged the exit poll prediction for Sunderland.

    But UKIP only 7% better than the BNP result in 2010
    eh?
    Tories only 4% better than the BNP result in 2010.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,662
    We're getting more than 100 page views a second...

    I have had to kick the server once :-)
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Tory vote up on 2010!!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sky: Con vote up on 2010, Lab down...

    Wtf?
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    EDW20000 said:

    1st past the post is dead

    You ok hun?
  • Harriet on 5Live can't understand why after 4 million conversations on the doorstep the exit poll suggest something other than she had expected - Yes, Harriet...THEY WERE LYING TO YOU
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Plato said:

    Which has the best coverage - BBC ITV or Sky?

    Sky IMO
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Con vote up on 2010, Lab down...

    Wtf?

    :D:D
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Farage only needs about 32% to win Thanet South and they've just got 22% in Houghton.

    That is an excellent point but Sunderland is a safe Labour seat. And this is a head exploding election. Both exit polls give 2 kipper seats - which 2?
    I reckon they'll get:

    Clacton 100% chance
    Castle Point 75%
    Thurrock 65%
    Thanet South 60%
    Rochester 33%

    We shall see what else...
    Dagenham & Rainham of course
  • The most delicious thought for me is all those lefties in Broadcasting House having to leave untold cases of finest champagne unopened and grumpily making their way home.

    Now let's see some real action from Cameron's new Government mounting a determined effort to eliminate once and for all all that all that deeply entrenched pro-Labour bias.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Has anyone got any sense of the likely vote share from this?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533

    Theresa May on Sky, looking like she's spent the last 4 weeks on a spa vacation.

    I thought that is exactly what everybody in the Tory cabinet had been doing?

    Has anybody seen Pickles, Gove, May, Hague, Hammond, Grayling, IDS, Hunt, Morgan, Greening, etc more than once or twice over the past 6 weeks?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,156
    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 8s8 seconds ago
    Final ELBOW update - Labour % leads split into YouGov v. Non-YG polls. YouGov = 0.2% LAB lead, Non-YG = 0.4% LAB lead

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596437942576553987
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Con vote up on 2010, Lab down...

    Wtf?

    Sunderland does not compute.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223

    Plato said:

    Which has the best coverage - BBC ITV or Sky?

    Sky IMO
    Agreed, they seem more switched on.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Good evening, everyone.

    Must admit I think the exit poll is crackers. Then again, I thought the same in 2010.

    Watched Serenity. Never seen Firefly, but I quite enjoyed the film.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MikeK said:

    AndyJS said:

    My prediction for that first seat was Lab 53%, UKIP 27%.

    When was this?
    At about 9:30pm I posted my constituency predictions for all GB regions apart from the NW (unfortunately I ran out of time to finish it).
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    EDW20000 said:

    1st past the post is dead

    Nonsense. If this exit poll is right, then first past the post is surprisingly safe. Tories have no reason to change voting method (neither do Labour).
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Con vote up on 2010, Lab down...

    Wtf?

    Scottish changes could make that happen
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Agree with RodCrosby. Tories must not be hubristic. Too early, too early for that.

    Fair play to lefties who are fronting up at the moment.

    I still fear a disateously inaccurate exit poll seats outcome
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Danny565 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Who is the next Labour leader?

    Andy Burnham. UKIP look like being the big winners (in votes albeit not seats), making it vital Labour get a real humanbeing in.
    Burnham? I can't see him being PM in 2020 by a long shot!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Danny565 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Who is the next Labour leader?

    Andy Burnham. UKIP look like being the big winners (in votes albeit not seats), making it vital Labour get a real humanbeing in.
    Mr Stafford Hospital himself?
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    Plato said:

    Which has the best coverage - BBC ITV or Sky?

    Sky, Robbo shouldn't be there for the BBC the poor lad isn't well.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour vote up by 1,464 votes in Sunderland Central.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    TSE I got locked on screen then it took me 20 mins to get back in again.. if you are in you are ok..
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Con vote up on 2010, Lab down...

    Wtf?


    Foot was EdM's political hero. It's apt.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited May 2015
    Another huge UKIP in Sunderland Central.

    I think the Tories are getting ahead of themselves and 15 UKIP is actually possible.

    Green beat Lib Dem again.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533

    Plato said:

    Which has the best coverage - BBC ITV or Sky?

    Sky IMO
    Oh its funny on BBC, as most of them look like they are going to burst into tears.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,662
    Great result for the Greens in Sunderland Central...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Tories down quite heavily again in Sunderland Central...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Neil's going to owe you £400 when all this is sadi and done, Eagles.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Con second in Sunderland central.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    SeanT said:

    kjohnw said:

    SeanT said:

    OMG Ed Balls in trouble

    Oh Oh Oh

    *reaches for Kleenex*

    so no longer a labour plurality then eh sean!
    NOPE.

    IF - if if if - IF this exit poll is right, then I am, as regards this election, a TOTAL FUCKWIT.

    And kudos to Southam and, even more, JackW.

    but a happy fuckwit though?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Danny565 said:

    Tories down quite heavily again in Sunderland Central...

    Making for a leaner, more efficient vote :D
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Con vote up on 2010, Lab down...

    Wtf?

    It would make sense if the exit poll is correct.

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    LOL BBC miss the declaration!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Thanx just changed channel

    Sky IMO

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    edited May 2015
    Interesting.

    These are safe seats. Not that the GP necessarily know the nuances of their own seats but will be interesting to see a closely contested seat.

    Will sort out the UKIP sheep from the NOTA lambs.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    Labour vote only up 1000 in Sunderland Central...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Could Barron be in trouble ?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,033
    edited May 2015
    Are ukip taking votes off labour then.?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,156
    Sunderland Central Con to Lab swing = 5.5%
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Tories nearly 10k in Sunderland central ... WTF?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Look out for the Greens. They may well get 5%/6% nationally. I imagine they'll do very well among the under 30s.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    edited May 2015
    whoops
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Painful night so far.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Sunderland Central Con to Lab swing = 5.5%

    ????????
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    In 2010 the average % for UKIP at the GE was 3.3

    In 2015 after two results it was 19

    n-n-n-n-n-n-n-n-nineteen!
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508
    Chameleon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Were you still up for Balls? Ed Balls in trouble in Morley

    When is it declaring?
    4.30am according to here
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If the north-east is Labour's best area according to the exit poll, as they said on BBC, they're heading for a very bad night because they're only up by 4 to 5% in these first two seats.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Second Sunderland 5.5% swing to Labour, UKIP up 17%.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,388
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Con vote up on 2010, Lab down...

    Wtf?

    Sunderland does not compute.

    Don't forget Brown did well in Scotland. If Lab have barely moved in England and are wiped out in Scotland then...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    DAMMIT.

    I can't help but admire, somehow, EdB.

    No one would be happier if he lost his seat but he is a class act.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Sam#s UKIP bet is on a knife edge imo
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Who's Barron?
    Pulpstar said:

    Could Barron be in trouble ?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    @CountfromSesameSt: Two Lib Dem deposits lost.. ah-ah-ah!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    Could Barron be in trouble ?

    Yes I think he's in deep trouble.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Nick Robinson could make a fortune charging for making obscene phone calls......
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    Pulpstar said:

    Sam#s UKIP bet is on a knife edge imo

    Yes, it's one of the most interesting bets of the election.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    @WikiGuido: Tories pushing Ed Balls out rumour. Surely not...

    s it me or does Balls look rattled?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Are ukip taking votes off labour then.?

    I've been saying that for months.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    something wrong.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Look out for the Greens. They may well get 5%/6% nationally. I imagine they'll do very well among the under 30s.

    Yes Greens crapping all over Lib Dems so far.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    If the north-east is Labour's best area according to the exit poll, as they said on BBC, they're heading for a very bad night because they're only up by 4 to 5% in these first two seats.

    Thats why we have to wait for a seat out of the NE.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    The Conservatives losing votes where it does not matter. The inbuilt bias that Labour had in the electoral system may well be gone after this. Indeed it might actually favour the Tories now.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    isam said:

    In 2010 the average % for UKIP at the GE was 3.3

    In 2015 after two results it was 19

    n-n-n-n-n-n-n-n-nineteen!

    LOL!

    Who got on a UKIP second places spread bet?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Terrible exit poll for Labour and a superb one for the Tories.

    I'm a little devastated obviously but if this mirrors the actual results then congrats to all the Tories on here.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,662
    Wow: Somerset & Frome down 22% LDs forecast
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    BBC "still a little bit shell-shocked..."

    LOL
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,662
    rcs1000 said:

    Wow: Somerset & Frome down 22% LDs forecast

    no incumbent, of course
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Will the BBC feed these numbers into their exit poll, and provide an updated one?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    I've got a bad feeling about this
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Lib Dems are looking utterly Norwegian Blue.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Could Barron be in trouble ?

    Yes I think he's in deep trouble.
    Yorkshire could be bad for Labour on the basis of this and Balls.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    If we hadn't had the exit poll, there wouldn't have been anything notable about the first two results.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    murali_s said:

    Terrible exit poll for Labour and a superb one for the Tories.

    I'm a little devastated obviously but if this mirrors the actual results then congrats to all the Tories on here.

    Very gracious of you.

    Still very very early days! have faith
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Tories projected to GAIN HAZEL GROVE - BBC

    Told you guys weeks ago you should get on it ;)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    Pulpstar said:

    Neil's going to owe you £400 when all this is sadi and done, Eagles.

    I hope so.

    I think he'd be delighted to lose that bet.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    In 2010 the average % for UKIP at the GE was 3.3

    In 2015 after two results it was 19

    n-n-n-n-n-n-n-n-nineteen!

    LOL!

    Who got on a UKIP second places spread bet?
    They SPIN guy on here backed over 100 at 2/1
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    something wrong.

    Unfortunately Rod we will have to wait another 90 minutes at least to know.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    Hazel Grove forecast Con Gain?! Good grief, no wonder Cameron hasn't slept for 3 days. He must be sensing a majority.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    CON gaining their 124th target seat???
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Ed Balls on Sky.. If exit poll right Cameron would be clinging on

    Sky ticker -- Labour source stating Labour have wiped out the coalition based on exit poll

    I reckon Balls knows he is fecked
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Don't think LD are that confident in Redcar! :lol::lol::lol:
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    isam said:

    In 2010 the average % for UKIP at the GE was 3.3

    In 2015 after two results it was 19

    n-n-n-n-n-n-n-n-nineteen!

    Paul Hardcastle or Commentators?

    (to save bandwidth):
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3bl4xaFZMM

    On topic: If UKIP get 19% they'll have done superbly.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    That 'why dividends?' remark, soooo Ed Miliband and 1970s Labour, was the end of Ed Miliband for the reality based community of working people.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Hazel Grove going blue?!

    Momentous events...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    murali_s said:

    Terrible exit poll for Labour and a superb one for the Tories.

    I'm a little devastated obviously but if this mirrors the actual results then congrats to all the Tories on here.

    Don't be to downbeat, most of us Tories have doubts about this poll.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Percentages after two results:

    Lab 52.6%
    Con 21.0%
    UKIP 20.3%
    Greens 3.5%
    LD 2.4%

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    isam said:

    In 2010 the average % for UKIP at the GE was 3.3

    In 2015 after two results it was 19

    n-n-n-n-n-n-n-n-nineteen!

    Top post :lol::lol:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    I hope I've done my sums right !
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2015
    St Ives projected to be gained by Tories but on "only" a 4% swing, according to the lovely Emily.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    Tories nearly 10k in Sunderland central ... WTF?

    It was 12000 last time
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    RobD said:

    Will the BBC feed these numbers into their exit poll, and provide an updated one?

    They will have late exit poll returns and first results to add, from memory they made a slight adjustment by a couple of seats last time around midnight.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. S, gracious words, although there's a long way to go and the exit poll came with a health warning the day before it was done.

    No really useful results yet.

    Can't believe the Lib Dems would be down to 10.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Breakdown of the exit poll shows massive LD to Cons swing: 15% swing and also big LD to Lab swings.

    Some incumbency bonus for LDs: 7% swing LD to Con.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    GIN1138 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Con vote up on 2010, Lab down...

    Wtf?

    Sunderland does not compute.

    Don't forget Brown did well in Scotland. If Lab have barely moved in England and are wiped out in Scotland then...
    Labour have had two excellent results in Sunderland, compared to 2010.

    Something's wrong.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    LD lost deposit count 2
This discussion has been closed.