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  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    SWing 4.5% Lab To Con! in Swing-don!

    Not sure if my ballot made it to Swindon South. It may not matter :D
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    foxinsoxuk said:

    These worried Labour MPs do make me wonder if it is not just from the LDs that the Tories will be winning.

    Will those putting the boot into Lynton Crosby now speak up?

    Was it Crosby or was it better voter targeting and social media, down to the American, ex-Obama, Jim Messina?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Bob__Sykes said:

    Is tonight really happening or am I dreaming?

    Just cannot believe it. But as AJ just said, Swindon South will be more interesting.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    antifrank said:

    Some of us pointed this out when Labour sat out by-elections in Eastleigh and Rochester & Strood and were pooh-poohed. This is the result.

    Quite. And some of us pointed out there were problems within Scottish Labour - 'nothing to see here' we were told. But in fairness, I don't think any of us quite anticipated the scale of the drubbing......
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    SeanT said:

    OK Labour are being UTTERLY destroyed.

    But the SNP are also rampant.

    For the sake of the Union the Tories need to be generous and magnanimous with the Nats, and sort out a Federal Britain, which helpfully excludes Labour from government forever, and for all time, everywhere.

    The problem with that is that the Tories have a real difficulty replacing the Lords with a Senate of the Nations and Regions.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited May 2015
    Speedy said:

    Artist said:

    There were signs of swings to the Tories in the South even with Lord Ashcroft.

    There was nothing of the sort of this, in none of the 170 constituency polls that LordA ever conducted, even in his latest Swindon poll.
    LordA is rubbish in his polls, utter trash.
    North East Somerset for one.

    Edit- and Kingswood
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited May 2015
    Tissue_Price said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 16s16 seconds ago

    Swindon North constituency result:
    CON - 50.3% (+5.7)
    LAB - 27.8% (-2.7)
    UKIP - 15.4% (+11.7)
    LDEM - 3.3% (-14.0)
    GRN - 3.3% (+2.3)

    4.2% swing TO CON

    If things go as they are you have to admit the tories have played an exceptional long game.

    1) Set up Labour as patsys for the Scottish Referendum
    2) Promise the referendum to pull back blue kippers
    3) Used the effect of 1 to frighten middle England back to them.

    Pretty much everything else has been noise.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Shame that compouter isn't here smugly saying EICIPM every 5 minutes.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Philip Cowley ‏@philipjcowley 2 mins2 minutes ago

    According to the exit poll, there should have been a 1% swing to Labour in Swindon N. There was a 4.3% swing to the Conservatives.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @philipjcowley: According to the exit poll, there should have been a 1% swing to Labour in Swindon N. There was a 4.3% swing to the Conservatives.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    LordWakefield said:

    isam said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 16s16 seconds ago

    Swindon North constituency result:
    CON - 50.3% (+5.7)
    LAB - 27.8% (-2.7)
    UKIP - 15.4% (+11.7)
    LDEM - 3.3% (-14.0)
    GRN - 3.3% (+2.3)

    4.2% swing TO CON

    19/19/19/15

    Peak Kipper has passed
    UKIP currently polling 70% higher than the exits. I don't see a much downside in buying seats @ 3.6 even taking S Thanet and Thurrock as no gain.
    There's maximum downside of 2.6, but it's quite possible there is upside of 4 or 5.
  • trubluetrublue Posts: 103
    Con majority into 5/1 on Betfair
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Gravitation said:

    Shame that compouter isn't here smugly saying EICIPM every 5 minutes.

    Basil rides again!!!
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    I can't believe the country is rewarding the Tories for this negative, repetitive, nasty, lacklustre campaign. 2020 campaign will be terrible.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    What's the point in opinion polls now? Will the lib dems win any seats?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2015
    If the UKIP vote is mainly coming from Lab and some LD going to Con, how unlikely is a majority?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978

    NEW THREAD

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    antifrank said:

    Since Labour didn't make the slightest attempt in five years to reach out to southern England, it is hardly surprising to see swings away from them in southern marginals. Some of us pointed this out when Labour sat out by-elections in Eastleigh and Rochester & Strood and were pooh-poohed. This is the result.

    Absolutely right. Terrible complacency.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The Labour line is amazing. Still pushing 'Cameron is a loser'
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Congratulations to Tories its all over.

    JackW was right all along polls and myself miles out by the looks of it
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    antifrank said:

    Since Labour didn't make the slightest attempt in five years to reach out to southern England, it is hardly surprising to see swings away from them in southern marginals. Some of us pointed this out when Labour sat out by-elections in Eastleigh and Rochester & Strood and were pooh-poohed. This is the result.

    I said the same. A one nation party needs to be relevant everywhere.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    Swindon North — 4.3% swing from Lab to Con.

    BBC and other networks completely failing to report on the significance of the Swindon North result.

    The Exit Poll looks correct, UKIP maybe a bit underestimated, they are up 12% even if the Tories rose by 6% in Swindon.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Balllllllllllllls! Please!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    NEW THREAD

    Thanks
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tory majority very possible.
    Slackbladder said:

    Philip Cowley ‏@philipjcowley 2 mins2 minutes ago

    According to the exit poll, there should have been a 1% swing to Labour in Swindon N. There was a 4.3% swing to the Conservatives.

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Slackbladder said:

    Gravitation said:

    Shame that compouter isn't here smugly saying EICIPM every 5 minutes.

    Basil rides again!!!
    I think Basil is on track to be elected as a Tory councillor in Newcastle
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Green beat LD in Swindon North!
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    BBC Scotland reporting that Bradford west has gone to a recount
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    SeanT said:

    I'm going to stay up all night.

    If it lasts longer than 4 hours, call a doctor. :)
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Tissue_Price said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 16s16 seconds ago

    Swindon North constituency result:
    CON - 50.3% (+5.7)
    LAB - 27.8% (-2.7)
    UKIP - 15.4% (+11.7)
    LDEM - 3.3% (-14.0)
    GRN - 3.3% (+2.3)

    4.2% swing TO CON

    against LAB predicted 7% swing to LAB.

  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Labour will find it really hard to get Scotland back. I don't it'll be impossible for Labour to win seats there, but I doubt they'll ever recover their dominance of Scotland. It could be like the Tories' situation with the NE of England. Which means both parties will obsess over the Midlands and the South of England even more than they've done before.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Gravitation said:

    Shame that compouter isn't here smugly saying EICIPM every 5 minutes.

    That's BJO... Compouter was all about Basil and his goalposts, tissues and Lynton Crosby.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    I can't believe what I'm seeing and reading. Will be up all night, no chance of sleep now.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Putney about to declare...
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Fascinating. Actually managed to sleep six hours so I can stay up all night.

    Wandsworth coming up.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Labour only need to take TEN seats off the Tories that the Exit Poll (margin 25 seats) doesn't predict for the ONLY government to form be dependent on the 62/63 SNP/Plaid MPs.

    Labour now conceding ALL except Edinburgh South in Edinburgh's five seats.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Scott_P said:

    @philipjcowley: According to the exit poll, there should have been a 1% swing to Labour in Swindon N. There was a 4.3% swing to the Conservatives.

    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive,
    But to be young was very heaven!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Swindon swing - Kin L!!!!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Wow, 4.3% swing TO the Tories in Swindon North.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    I'm guessing Freer in Finchley is going not just to hold on but to wallop Sackman.

    Nice the way Labour campaigned there - reminding all the orthodox Jews Freer is gay, hoping this would make them hate him, and vote for the candidate with bigots on the ground.

    Really thoughtful stuff by Labour there.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Recount in Bradford West.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Funny Twitter feed.
    https://twitter.com/libdemdeposits
    https://twitter.com/LibDemDeposits/status/596460798265917442
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    +5.8% swing to the blues in Swindon North & -14% for the yellows. - Predicted or not?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Dair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Dair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Looks like Eck won't be writing the budget after all.

    Nope, he'll be writing the Tory Budget or there will be a Second Referendum.
    Not a chance - he'll be languishing on the oppo benches.
    That's fine. As Matthew Parris says BOTH parties need to talk to the SNP. Refuse? Well that's grounds for Independence.
    No it is not.

    It was the SNP being so anti-Tory that killed Labour in England
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    so is it Con min govt?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    foxinsoxuk said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Incidentally, the reason I'm posting here is that the Broxtowe count doesn't start till 2. They're currently separating GE and local government votes and verifying each (why they don't have separate boxes, who knows?).

    Best of luck Nick. You would have had my vote.
    I sincerely hope Nick loses (nothing personal) but I really can't stand Soubry either.
    What a shame they can't both lose.

    Stand by for Nick telling us for months how he wasn't really bothered anyway.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour up 1,700 in Putney.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    SeanT said:

    I'm going to stay up all night.

    Viagra?

    :)
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Putney 23k cons
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories up 1,800 in Putney.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Swing in Putney very close to 0%
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Putney a good result for Tories
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Putney result Lab 12838 Con 23018 LD 2717 Green 2067 UKIP 1989
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Justine Greening home and hosed in Putney.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Thrasher: Swindon swing to CON larger than exit poll's.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited May 2015
    are we experiencing the death of labour?
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Ave_it said:

    bazzer said:

    what sort of swing to Tories needed for an overall maj? Is this out of question now? Might 4.2% be enough?

    1% is enough if in the right seats. Assuming LD collapse which we know has happened.

    Shocking result for LAB in Swindon N - 1987 scenario possible 229 seats
    Appalling. Why were the opinion polls wrong? But in fact IIRC then Ashcroft's regional breakdown was predicting just this sort of result even if his national %ages were closer.
    This is head popping stuff.

    (recount Bradford West!!!)
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Ishmael_X said:

    What a shame IOS' internet connection is down on this night of all nights.

    Compouter's squirrel chewed through the cable.

    The pair of them are now desperately trying to find a ladder to repair the break, though the furry little fellow might be a goner after taking 50 volts of BritishTelecom's finest DC through his choppers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    AndyJS said:

    Recount in Bradford West.

    Please can we get rid of the scumbag Galloway.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Con Maj 5.3
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Con jump 2 on SPIN - now 310
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    could we get Con majority?
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,596
    Lib Dems save deposit in Putney!!
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Methinks exit poll wrong - banging for Tory majority.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    R5L: George Galloway reported by the returning officer for the constituency for retweeting exit poll information before the polls closed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Good speech from Justine. Levelling up and equality of opportunity.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    UKIP donor: Con win Thanet South
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Slow counts tonight.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Lib Dems save deposit in Putney!!

    And our first 3rd place.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Mathematical quasi-paradox: Tory majority up in Putney but swing to Labour.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    watford30 said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    What a shame IOS' internet connection is down on this night of all nights.

    Compouter's squirrel chewed through the cable.

    The pair of them are now desperately trying to find a ladder to repair the break, though the furry little fellow might be a goner after taking 50 volts of BritishTelecom's finest DC through his choppers.
    The answer is simple.
    Labour are being squeezed by two kinds of nationalism.
    There are three losers in this election.
    4 if you count Lord Mandelson.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Kellner: If Farage loses, Tory right will be less dangerous.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    BBC saying that UKIP donor suggesting Farage is toast in Thanet South, Cons victorious there.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Prodicus said:

    Thrasher: Swindon swing to CON larger than exit poll's.

    Swindon sells cars to Europe.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    NEW THREAD
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MikeL said:

    UKIP donor: Con win Thanet South

    Probably with strong tactical voting from Labour supporters.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    SeanT said:

    I'm going to stay up all night.

    Me too. I broke out the bubbly. Sod it. Plenty more where that came from, to see me right through the night. Cheers!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    Recount in Bradford West.

    Please can we get rid of the scumbag Galloway.
    Labour have an excellent candidate there. I hope she wins.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    well I'm going to bed, so goodnight all.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    NEW THREAD
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Newcastle East:

    Lab 19,378 (17,043)
    Con 6,884 (6,068)
    UKIP 4,910 (-)
    LD 4,332 (12,590)
    Greens 3,426 (620)
    TUSC 170 (-)
    Comm Brit 122 (177)

    Lab vote +4.8%
  • pinball13pinball13 Posts: 83
    When can we expect an update to the exit poll? Still think it's not right - but how wrong?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Yvette Cooper on Sky pretending everyone watching is a moron.

    Reckons Cameron couldn't be PM if he won 316 seats.

    Yep - give it to the party with 250 !! muppets
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Wrexham swing!! FFS the exit poll may well be right!!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    foxinsoxuk said:

    AndyJS said:

    Swindon North:

    Con 26,295
    Lab 14,509
    UKIP 8,011
    Green 1,723
    LD 1,704

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/may/07/live-uk-election-results-in-full#c=E14000851

    Changes:

    Con +5.7%
    Lab -2.7%

    Swing, Lab to Con: 4.2%

    that looks like con majority in reach to me.
    Friend just texted that he hears 323 for tories if forcasted now... waiting to hear who by
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    CON hold Broxbourne
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Spreadex now have Tories winning 323 seats ...... game over effectively.
This discussion has been closed.