Sunil Kinnock gained seats in 1987, Miliband is losing them 5 years after Brown's defeat, he is toast, it will be a Burnham Cooper Umunna battle for the successsion
If the exit poll is correct it's a shockingly good yet pyrrhic victory for Cameron.
He won't want to form a government with a tiny majority. His hope of governing with the Lib Dems will be dashed (they'll surely shun it anyway) and he will be facing a difficult Major'esque few years as PM.
If he could get the EU referendum through, I think he might avoid a lot of backbench turmoil. On the projected figures, with UKIP and DUP support he would get a referendum bill (Just!) passed in the Commons.
Average 4% swing to Labour in Sunderland's 3 seats...
Turnout almost exactly 2010 figures.
Any Geordies, Mackems or Foggies care to comment? Was the Scottish question particularly strong in the NE? Did the kippers pledge to end Barnett go down particularly well there?
The SNP would do very well if they had candidates in the NE. I think that says it all.
If the exit poll is correct it's a shockingly good yet pyrrhic victory for Cameron.
He won't want to form a government with a tiny majority. His hope of governing with the Lib Dems will be dashed (they'll surely shun it anyway) and he will be facing a difficult Major'esque few years as PM.
I'm thinking this too. This is why a Conservative minority government isn't so bad.
To echo an ex member of PB. Socialists never learn. For almost 5 years Labour have known that they had a duff Leader. Yet they sat back and ignored the problem and never did anything about it. Will they learn?
Yes, they will. Have.
Their dear leader was bought and paid for by their Paymaster, Unite (against the will of MPs and the constituencies). They could not defenestrate Ed without offending Len McCluskey and thus bankrupting the party. After this, McCluskey will install someone electable. The MPs and constituencies will insist on it. Ed is toast.
If they choose Burnham next time Labour will do worse, McCluskey should learn his lesson and let the more qualified set the agenda.
McClusterf*ck should stop being and listen to his members rather than his ego. Only half of them voted Labour last time.
Lets imagine Tories + Lib Dem's end up say 20 short...could we still be looking at another GE in a few months?
Labour are spinning they could have a Coalition of the losers, but really, really, that wouldn't work.
Yes - I think something that's being missed in this is that, even on the basis of the exit poll, although the Tories would be the "winners", it would still be very hard for the Tories to get things through parliament. A new election would beckon, unless the Tories can get a few more seats than the exit.
That's because Tories are too busy celebrating and thinking Labour will never be the largest party in a parliament ever again. I understand being happy; what I don't understand is why you'd assume based on tonight's results the Tories will govern the UK forever. A tad hyperbolic from many on here.
No one is making any such assumption.
PS If you'd like me to talk you through the Sheffield Effect and the EdStone again I'm here all night.
You really think the Conservatives being ahead by 77 is due to EdStone? Really? It's probably the SNP effect combined with Miliband's approval ratings, and people have little confidence in Labour's competence.
And some are making such assumptions, claiming Labour are becoming 'obsolete', and that Labour will become 'extinct' outside of London, and are collapsing 'piece by piece, region by region'.
the SNP effect = ed is crap (losing 59 seats in one go doesn't for some reason "not count" because they are Scottish seats)
Miliband's approval ratings = ed is crap
the Sheffield Effect = the electorate suddenly takes on board at a specific moment in the fortnight before the election that the LOTO is too crap to govern.
And if Labour collapses it will be replaced by something else, so it won't be tories for ever.
Whenever I've suggested on here that the best leader always wins, citing Thatcher vs Callaghan, Foot and Kinnock, Major versus Kinnock, Blair versus Major, Hague and Howard, and Cameron versus Broon, I always get lefties angrily disagreeing that any of those Labour creeps was a crap leader.
@JournoStephen: Bernard Ponsonby explains the meaning of "gubbed" for those confused by @RuthDavidsonMSP's ultra-Scottish description of Labour's woes.
UKIP position looks like LD's position in the early 90s. Second to Lab in various Northern seats, competing with Tories and Lab (but more Tories) in South. Kudos to their 2020 strategy, methinks......
The next thread might be the draft thread I wrote last June, speculating if the Nats lost the indyref, they might make a net LOSS in seats at the general election.
The question for Conservative HQ is. Have their two headed Chairmen lost Cameron his best chance of a majority due to the shambles in, IT, the ground game, Membership, morale etc etc
Average 4% swing to Labour in Sunderland's 3 seats...
Turnout almost exactly 2010 figures.
Any Geordies, Mackems or Foggies care to comment? Was the Scottish question particularly strong in the NE? Did the kippers pledge to end Barnett go down particularly well there?
The SNP would do very well if they had candidates in the NE. I think that says it all.
Labout got it wrong.
They should have been anti-austerity from the start. Its supported by IFS but they didn;t they want cuts. So they lots their votes to UKIP as the NOTA vote.
How well would the Tories had done if they had actually a decent campaign with some clear policies?
God they are still banging on about twitter / social media effects. If there is one thing we should learn from this...the silent majority don't spend all day posting lies on twitter.
Why does BBC map not give result for individual seat when you click on it (like it did in 2010).
The 2010 map also gave you results for each region which I think is going to be extremely important at this election with very different swings everywhere.
If the exit poll is correct it's a shockingly good yet pyrrhic victory for Cameron.
He won't want to form a government with a tiny majority. His hope of governing with the Lib Dems will be dashed (they'll surely shun it anyway) and he will be facing a difficult Major'esque few years as PM.
I'm thinking this too. This is why a Conservative minority government isn't so bad.
Cameron's off in 2017 anyway... Then it's Bring On Boris who might, just might get the Tories to an overall majority?
I think that Peter Kellner is right. 316 would result in a minority Conservative government. No real worthwhile coalition partner and hard to see how the rest of the parties could agree on enough to stop them. I doubt the DNP,UKIP and the Libdems would vote against a Tory queen speech.
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 15 s 15 secondi fa Plaid Cymru source 'not anticipating taking Ceredigion' but Ynys Môn could still turn on 'toss of a coin.'
Sunil Kinnock gained seats in 1987, Miliband is losing them 5 years after Brown's defeat, he is toast, it will be a Burnham Cooper Umunna battle for the successsion
Inshallah. They're all utterly detestable. Any of them would be a gift.
@JournoStephen: Bernard Ponsonby explains the meaning of "gubbed" for those confused by @RuthDavidsonMSP's ultra-Scottish description of Labour's woes.
If the exit poll is correct it's a shockingly good yet pyrrhic victory for Cameron.
He won't want to form a government with a tiny majority. His hope of governing with the Lib Dems will be dashed (they'll surely shun it anyway) and he will be facing a difficult Major'esque few years as PM.
I'm thinking this too. This is why a Conservative minority government isn't so bad.
Cameron's off in 2017 anyway... Then it's Bring On Boris who might, just might get the Tories to an overall majority?
Boris? I think Boris could either be brilliant or a complete an utter disaster. No in-between.
Really?! Incumbent Conservative Government in a Coalition in difficult economic times looks to be on course to improve their previous position after that shock Exit poll, and totally against the tide of recent polling. And you are bitching about their campaign not being effective enough?!
To echo an ex member of PB. Socialists never learn. For almost 5 years Labour have known that they had a duff Leader. Yet they sat back and ignored the problem and never did anything about it. Will they learn?
Yes, they will. Have.
Their dear leader was bought and paid for by their Paymaster, Unite (against the will of MPs and the constituencies). They could not defenestrate Ed without offending Len McCluskey and thus bankrupting the party. After this, McCluskey will install someone electable. The MPs and constituencies will insist on it. Ed is toast.
If they choose Burnham next time Labour will do worse, McCluskey should learn his lesson and let the more qualified set the agenda.
Butcher Burnham would be my preferred choice as Labour leader by a long way. He'd lose worse than Miliband. So much blood on his hands.
Burnham took over at health in 2009 and started the first Staffs enquiry a month later. The health ministers to blame for Stafford were Milburn, Reid, Hewitt and Johnson.
But I think Labour needs a new generation. Step forward the small yet perfectly formed Liz Kendall (though beware a kipper surge in Leicester West. This is the most WWC of the Leicester seats and with biggest East European community).
Really?! Incumbent Conservative Government in a Coalition in difficult economic times looks to be on course to improve their previous position after that shock Exit poll, and totally against the tide of recent polling. And you are bitching about their campaign not being effective enough?!
Be sad to see the Park Ranger getting the heave ho. He was a very sensible member of the Coalition government (I will let him off the slightly dirty leaking of that document).
Somewhere in the UK, probably in London, there is a man or woman staring *pensively* at the Labour Party's Limestone Policy Obelisk
Hint: lay it engraved side down on the ground over Ed M's grave, carve the five new "Labour must never again....." rules on the visible face and hide for five years.
To echo an ex member of PB. Socialists never learn. For almost 5 years Labour have known that they had a duff Leader. Yet they sat back and ignored the problem and never did anything about it. Will they learn?
Yes, they will. Have.
Their dear leader was bought and paid for by their Paymaster, Unite (against the will of MPs and the constituencies). They could not defenestrate Ed without offending Len McCluskey and thus bankrupting the party. After this, McCluskey will install someone electable. The MPs and constituencies will insist on it. Ed is toast.
If they choose Burnham next time Labour will do worse, McCluskey should learn his lesson and let the more qualified set the agenda.
Butcher Burnham would be my preferred choice as Labour leader by a long way. He'd lose worse than Miliband. So much blood on his hands.
Burnham took over at health in 2009 and started the first Staffs enquiry a month later. The health ministers to blame for Stafford were Milburn, Reid, Hewitt and Johnson.
But I think Labour needs a new generation. Step forward the small yet perfectly formed Liz Kendall (though beware a kipper surge in Leicester West. This is the most WWC of the Leicester seats and with biggest East European community).
She is for even more austerity than the Eds were proposing. She would send the North of England the same way as Scotland.
Really?! Incumbent Conservative Government in a Coalition in difficult economic times looks to be on course to improve their previous position after that shock Exit poll, and totally against the tide of recent polling. And you are bitching about their campaign not being effective enough?!
I wonder what that brewery in Galloway constituency that Galloway got into a fight with will do if he loses? Free beer for all and some non-alcoholic beverages those that can't drink?
Lets remember where that last Conservative Opposition had their base camp compared to Tony Blair in 1997, they were still under 200 seats after the previous three elections. Can we please keep it real about just what an achievement coming from that base to damn near a majority was in one GE?
Really?! Incumbent Conservative Government in a Coalition in difficult economic times looks to be on course to improve their previous position after that shock Exit poll, and totally against the tide of recent polling. And you are bitching about their campaign not being effective enough?!
To echo an ex member of PB. Socialists never learn. For almost 5 years Labour have known that they had a duff Leader. Yet they sat back and ignored the problem and never did anything about it. Will they learn?
Yes, they will. Have.
Their dear leader was bought and paid for by their Paymaster, Unite (against the will of MPs and the constituencies). They could not defenestrate Ed without offending Len McCluskey and thus bankrupting the party. After this, McCluskey will install someone electable. The MPs and constituencies will insist on it. Ed is toast.
If they choose Burnham next time Labour will do worse, McCluskey should learn his lesson and let the more qualified set the agenda.
Butcher Burnham would be my preferred choice as Labour leader by a long way. He'd lose worse than Miliband. So much blood on his hands.
Burnham took over at health in 2009 and started the first Staffs enquiry a month later. The health ministers to blame for Stafford were Milburn, Reid, Hewitt and Johnson.
But I think Labour needs a new generation. Step forward the small yet perfectly formed Liz Kendall (though beware a kipper surge in Leicester West. This is the most WWC of the Leicester seats and with biggest East European community).
Then tried to deny anything had gone wrong. Protecting the producer interest while sick old ladies die of thirst in hospital amid their poo.
Morally incompetent. Bring him on, it'll be 400 seats for the Tories in 2020.
Comments
Poor Old Ed Stone What a Shame.
Yet here we are. Quelle surprise!
@JournoStephen: Bernard Ponsonby explains the meaning of "gubbed" for those confused by @RuthDavidsonMSP's ultra-Scottish description of Labour's woes.
Would be close on these figures..
The next thread might be the draft thread I wrote last June, speculating if the Nats lost the indyref, they might make a net LOSS in seats at the general election.
Have their two headed Chairmen lost Cameron his best chance of a majority due to the shambles in, IT, the ground game, Membership, morale etc etc
They should have been anti-austerity from the start. Its supported by IFS but they didn;t they want cuts. So they lots their votes to UKIP as the NOTA vote.
Although maybe best where she is too.
Click on constituency then when it is highlighted:
Click on Constituency name AGAIN
God they are still banging on about twitter / social media effects. If there is one thing we should learn from this...the silent majority don't spend all day posting lies on twitter.
Don't worry. I wouldn't phone her up first thing in the morning to gloat. That's not my style.
I'd wait until at least seven.
I doubt the DNP,UKIP and the Libdems would vote against a Tory queen speech.
"Predicted headline: "Ed Miliband demands judge led inquiry into election." #GE2015"
Bit early to get cocky, methinks, though it's a good line.
North - Labour admitting defeat to journos.
South - No Comment.
They lost both I think.
Plaid Cymru source 'not anticipating taking Ceredigion' but Ynys Môn could still turn on 'toss of a coin.'
The Sunderland folk like to go home early....rather like at the Stadium of Light
There must be quite a few.
Lord Ashcroft's epitaph: nihil quod tetigit non inquinavit.
Fallon is a dreary man.
But I think Labour needs a new generation. Step forward the small yet perfectly formed Liz Kendall (though beware a kipper surge in Leicester West. This is the most WWC of the Leicester seats and with biggest East European community).
@KirstyWark: Two sources telling us SNP have swept Glasgow . Watching tables one after another after another #GE215
Reaches for hankie.
piteous
Morally incompetent. Bring him on, it'll be 400 seats for the Tories in 2020.