Lets imagine Tories + Lib Dem's end up say 20 short...could we still be looking at another GE in a few months?
Labour are spinning they could have a Coalition of the losers, but really, really, that wouldn't work.
Yes - I think something that's being missed in this is that, even on the basis of the exit poll, although the Tories would be the "winners", it would still be very hard for the Tories to get things through parliament. A new election would beckon, unless the Tories can get a few more seats than the exit.
That's because Tories are too busy celebrating and thinking Labour will never be the largest party in a parliament ever again. I understand being happy; what I don't understand is why you'd assume based on tonight's results the Tories will govern the UK forever. A tad hyperbolic from many on here.
No one is making any such assumption.
PS If you'd like me to talk you through the Sheffield Effect and the EdStone again I'm here all night.
Can I just say that, from the reports at least, Cameron, Miliband and Clegg have all been putting in the miles over the last week. They must be absolutely exhausted. It's been quite impressive to watch their travel on TV.
Kudos to all of them, even if at least two are big, stinking losers. ;-)
To echo an ex member of PB. Socialists never learn. For almost 5 years Labour have known that they had a duff Leader. Yet they sat back and ignored the problem and never did anything about it. Will they learn?
Yes, they will. Have.
Their dear leader was bought and paid for by their Paymaster, Unite (against the will of MPs and the constituencies). They could not defenestrate Ed without offending Len McCluskey and thus bankrupting the party. After this, McCluskey will install someone electable. The MPs and constituencies will insist on it. Ed is toast.
I think the Tories are getting ahead of themselves and 15 UKIP is actually possible.
Green beat Lib Dem again.
I have long held that UKIP will finish on about 12% of the total vote and will do very well indeed to get 6 seats. Their vote may well be very good in safe seats like Sunderland but I expect it to be nowhere near as strong in Con/Lab marginals.
Maybe the makeup of the UKIP vote is totally misunderstood? Despite all the thought that the Tories needed to get them sub 10%, maybe actually a much bigger % of their vote is disgruntled Labour than previously thought (especially in the likes of the North East).
That would bear out Rob Ford's 'Revolt on the Right'.
It is now possible to envisage the entire extinction of Labour, outside London.
Already dead in Scotland, UKIP harrying them in northern England, PC posed in Wales.
This is how a great party dies, by electing a quasi-Marxist North London dickhead as leader, then building an Obelisk.
Okay calm down. Labour have done badly, but they'll be back. People though the Tories would never win again in 1997.
To be honest, if they lose tonight, Labour will get new leadership and probably more energy and drive. I've always felt that they weren't overkeen on returning to government this time. I'd think they'd probably be in a good position for 2020 if we went the whole parliament.
Can't believe Labour are really pushing the line that the exit poll would leave Cameron unable to secure a majority in Parliament and so Ed Miliband would get a go. There is no way on earth that Labour would try to govern with 239 MPs.
Thrasher: early results, swing to LAB worse than exit poll. Midlands likely to do worse than exit poll. CONS could put on seats from exit poll. Be still my beating heart.
If this election was any from 1970 till 2010 then Labour would have been on course for a 4% swing based on the results so far, and largest party bang on the thousands of the national and constituency polls. The Exit Poll is disagreeing though.
Thrasher: early results, swing to LAB worse than exit poll. Midlands likely to do worse than exit poll. CONS could put on seats from exit poll. Be still my beating heart.
Looking dire for Labour. With votes lost in Scotland could go backwards.
Thrasher: exit poll showing only a slight swing to Labour in London.
Hi Andy I don't think that's quite what he said. I thought he said the swing in London to Labour is slightly above the national average but not by as much as the opinion polls were suggesting.
Danny565 Labour and the SNP combined are still behind the Tories so that is not strictly correct
Sure, there's no chance at all Labour would get into govt on these figures. But they might still be able to unite to vote against the Tories (hence new election).
Terrible exit poll for Labour and a superb one for the Tories.
I'm a little devastated obviously but if this mirrors the actual results then congrats to all the Tories on here.
Don't be to downbeat, most of us Tories have doubts about this poll.
I have doubts, but I am now fairly sure Cameron will be PM again, and Ed Miliband will be gone.
This is massively silly speculation at this stage, but if Labour did lose, and lose badly, would Ed have to step down as leader? And if he did, would he also think: "sod this!" and resign his seat, especially if pushed from the leadership?
Although it would be more fun if Labour lost heavily and Ed stayed on ...
Kinnock stayed on after 1987, promptly losing in 92.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul 2m2 minutes ago Neil Kinnock has got his party back now.
LMAO at the misplaced triumphalism. The main reason for this disaster is Labour being wiped out by a party on their LEFT in Scotland.
Ludicrous. The SNP do well in Scotland as a leftwing party because they do not have to raise the taxes to finance the public spending they disburse. Their "lefty" popularity is an hallucination.
Cameron, as next PM, should give them Full Fiscal Autonomy, or something close.
The left do well in Scotland because right leaning Scots are more likely to move elsewhere in the UK.
The Shy Tories guy at Number Cruncher AND Kellner BOTH said they have never found a result where the party with the most popular leader lost an election. Dave lead Ed by miles almost down to the wire.
Terrible exit poll for Labour and a superb one for the Tories.
I'm a little devastated obviously but if this mirrors the actual results then congrats to all the Tories on here.
Don't be to downbeat, most of us Tories have doubts about this poll.
I have doubts, but I am now fairly sure Cameron will be PM again, and Ed Miliband will be gone.
This is massively silly speculation at this stage, but if Labour did lose, and lose badly, would Ed have to step down as leader? And if he did, would he also think: "sod this!" and resign his seat, especially if pushed from the leadership?
Although it would be more fun if Labour lost heavily and Ed stayed on ...
Kinnock stayed on after 1987, promptly losing in 92.
To echo an ex member of PB. Socialists never learn. For almost 5 years Labour have known that they had a duff Leader. Yet they sat back and ignored the problem and never did anything about it. Will they learn?
Lets imagine Tories + Lib Dem's end up say 20 short...could we still be looking at another GE in a few months?
Labour are spinning they could have a Coalition of the losers, but really, really, that wouldn't work.
Yes - I think something that's being missed in this is that, even on the basis of the exit poll, although the Tories would be the "winners", it would still be very hard for the Tories to get things through parliament. A new election would beckon, unless the Tories can get a few more seats than the exit.
That's because Tories are too busy celebrating and thinking Labour will never be the largest party in a parliament ever again. I understand being happy; what I don't understand is why you'd assume based on tonight's results the Tories will govern the UK forever. A tad hyperbolic from many on here.
No one is making any such assumption.
PS If you'd like me to talk you through the Sheffield Effect and the EdStone again I'm here all night.
You really think the Conservatives being ahead by 77 is due to EdStone? Really? It's probably the SNP effect combined with Miliband's approval ratings, and people have little confidence in Labour's competence.
And some are making such assumptions, claiming Labour are becoming 'obsolete', and that Labour will become 'extinct' outside of London, and are collapsing 'piece by piece, region by region'.
The exit poll is predicting about 20 Labour gains assuming 40 losses in Scotland. Considering that they are probably going to get atleast 10 Liberal ones that does not leave many from the Tories at all. Will Nick Palmer be one of the few gains??
The reality is that in the N-E so far it has been overwhelmingly Lab (forget the swings, they have huge majorities).
Which means that whole economic communities are not feeling the recovery, such as it is, and perhaps feel left out of economic progress that has been made for the past generation and more.
That is something that any new govt needs to address.
The exit poll is predicting about 20 Labour gains assuming 40 losses in Scotland. Considering that they are probably going to get atleast 10 Liberal ones that does not leave many from the Tories at all. Will Nick Palmer be one of the few gains??
Comments
PS If you'd like me to talk you through the Sheffield Effect and the EdStone again I'm here all night.
Kudos to all of them, even if at least two are big, stinking losers. ;-)
Their dear leader was bought and paid for by their Paymaster, Unite (against the will of MPs and the constituencies). They could not defenestrate Ed without offending Len McCluskey and thus bankrupting the party. After this, McCluskey will install someone electable. The MPs and constituencies will insist on it. Ed is toast.
It took Jim Murphy a few weeks of being SLAB leader to go completely grey.
Dodgy for LAB in London now?
@pollytoynbee: @JohnRentoul Expect much more toxic gloating from the Rentoul Hodges brigade, even before we have the result
Swings lower to Lab in NE than even Exit Poll suggested.
Con just rose by 1 to 308
Hur.....
Be still my beating heart.
The Exit Poll is disagreeing though.
308, 250, 15.5, 54.5
Good luck for 11 then!!
But is Balls himself on a knife edge????????????
JackW looks amazingly accurate at this stage.
Balls talking Balls if Con have 20 or more seats than Lab IMO
And some are making such assumptions, claiming Labour are becoming 'obsolete', and that Labour will become 'extinct' outside of London, and are collapsing 'piece by piece, region by region'.
Will Nick Palmer be one of the few gains??
Which means that whole economic communities are not feeling the recovery, such as it is, and perhaps feel left out of economic progress that has been made for the past generation and more.
That is something that any new govt needs to address.
I was much more accurate: lower on LDs than JackW, higher on the Cons
OGHs prediction profoundly different to the exit poll.
But I almost flipped a coin, could easily have gone for the Blues
If the Exit Poll is correct, then does that make today VE Day - Victory Over Ed day!