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No one is making any such assumption.The_Apocalypse said:
That's because Tories are too busy celebrating and thinking Labour will never be the largest party in a parliament ever again. I understand being happy; what I don't understand is why you'd assume based on tonight's results the Tories will govern the UK forever. A tad hyperbolic from many on here.Danny565 said:
Yes - I think something that's being missed in this is that, even on the basis of the exit poll, although the Tories would be the "winners", it would still be very hard for the Tories to get things through parliament. A new election would beckon, unless the Tories can get a few more seats than the exit.FrancisUrquhart said:Lets imagine Tories + Lib Dem's end up say 20 short...could we still be looking at another GE in a few months?
Labour are spinning they could have a Coalition of the losers, but really, really, that wouldn't work.
PS If you'd like me to talk you through the Sheffield Effect and the EdStone again I'm here all night.
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Can I just say that, from the reports at least, Cameron, Miliband and Clegg have all been putting in the miles over the last week. They must be absolutely exhausted. It's been quite impressive to watch their travel on TV.
Kudos to all of them, even if at least two are big, stinking losers. ;-)0 -
Yes, they will. Have.TCPoliticalBetting said:To echo an ex member of PB. Socialists never learn.
For almost 5 years Labour have known that they had a duff Leader. Yet they sat back and ignored the problem and never did anything about it. Will they learn?
Their dear leader was bought and paid for by their Paymaster, Unite (against the will of MPs and the constituencies). They could not defenestrate Ed without offending Len McCluskey and thus bankrupting the party. After this, McCluskey will install someone electable. The MPs and constituencies will insist on it. Ed is toast.
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I ended up voting LAB in Ilford North. Turnout was supposedly "rather good" according to polling station staff.0
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pollsters will have to focus on regional swings from now on0
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WTF Ed Balls has literally gone completely grey TONIGHT. He is going to lose.
It took Jim Murphy a few weeks of being SLAB leader to go completely grey.0 -
Al Jazeera?Plato said:Which has the best coverage - BBC ITV or Sky?
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Thrasher: exit poll showing only a slight swing to Labour in London.0
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If Balls loses his seat what does that say about Labour seatcount?
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Josias, If Huppert loses by one vote, and that leaves the LDs on 10 seats, then I'm afraid you may be banned from the site.0
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Hello Sunil - thanks for all the charts and humour!Sunil_Prasannan said:I ended up voting LAB in Ilford North. Turnout was supposedly "rather good" according to polling station staff.
Dodgy for LAB in London now?0 -
That would bear out Rob Ford's 'Revolt on the Right'.FrancisUrquhart said:
Maybe the makeup of the UKIP vote is totally misunderstood? Despite all the thought that the Tories needed to get them sub 10%, maybe actually a much bigger % of their vote is disgruntled Labour than previously thought (especially in the likes of the North East).HurstLlama said:
I have long held that UKIP will finish on about 12% of the total vote and will do very well indeed to get 6 seats. Their vote may well be very good in safe seats like Sunderland but I expect it to be nowhere near as strong in Con/Lab marginals.Dair said:Another huge UKIP in Sunderland Central.
I think the Tories are getting ahead of themselves and 15 UKIP is actually possible.
Green beat Lib Dem again.
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Thrasher: Tories to do well in East Midlands, their vote share rising.0
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I hope you're right.numbertwelve said:
To be honest, if they lose tonight, Labour will get new leadership and probably more energy and drive. I've always felt that they weren't overkeen on returning to government this time. I'd think they'd probably be in a good position for 2020 if we went the whole parliament.The_Apocalypse said:
Okay calm down. Labour have done badly, but they'll be back. People though the Tories would never win again in 1997.SeanT said:It is now possible to envisage the entire extinction of Labour, outside London.
Already dead in Scotland, UKIP harrying them in northern England, PC posed in Wales.
This is how a great party dies, by electing a quasi-Marxist North London dickhead as leader, then building an Obelisk.0 -
This even better...JonathanD said:Brilliant
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul 2m2 minutes ago
Neil Kinnock has got his party back now.
@pollytoynbee: @JohnRentoul Expect much more toxic gloating from the Rentoul Hodges brigade, even before we have the result0 -
None - Labour will have lost them by their own failures and shortcomings.SouthamObserver said:Watch those Green scores!!!
How many seats will they cost Labour?0 -
Is it just me or is Mr Balls speaking through a terrified rictus?0
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Fox jr just texted me. He reckons Green take Norwich South.0
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Mr. Pulpstar, Thrasher (on Sky) reckons the NE and Yorkshire swings from Con to Lab are better than elsewhere, which should aid Balls.0
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Thrasher: swing in first three results is less than exit poll was predicting.0
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Danny565 Labour and the SNP combined are still behind the Tories so that is not strictly correct0
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East Midlands strong for Tories...vote up...according to Thrasher on Exit Poll.
Swings lower to Lab in NE than even Exit Poll suggested.0 -
Can't believe Labour are really pushing the line that the exit poll would leave Cameron unable to secure a majority in Parliament and so Ed Miliband would get a go. There is no way on earth that Labour would try to govern with 239 MPs.0
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LOL "swing worse than exit poll was suggesting" LOL0
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Thrasher on Sky saying possible Tory gains in the Midlands.
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No tory surge in Aberdeen and West Kincardine.0
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Conservatives increase votes in E Midlands0
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SPIN
Con just rose by 1 to 3080 -
Average 4% swing to Labour in Sunderland's 3 seats...0
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Not his usual bullish self is he?Stark_Dawning said:Is it just me or is Mr Balls speaking through a terrified rictus?
Hur.....0 -
Eh_ehm_a_eh said:
No tory surge in Aberdeen and West Kincardine.
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Conservative doing better than 2010 in the East Midlands according to SKY, music to my ears but no great surprise to me.0
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Thrasher: early results, swing to LAB worse than exit poll. Midlands likely to do worse than exit poll. CONS could put on seats from exit poll.
Be still my beating heart.0 -
Guy on Sky who does the exit poll stating they are very confident in its outcome.0
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If this election was any from 1970 till 2010 then Labour would have been on course for a 4% swing based on the results so far, and largest party bang on the thousands of the national and constituency polls.
The Exit Poll is disagreeing though.0 -
Greens in 4 figures in all NE seats so far. Looking good for them overall.0
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SPIN
308, 250, 15.5, 54.50 -
Labour civil war. Polly on Rentoul action!0
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He's part of a fairly unlikely contingency bet right now so it shouldn't matterMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, Thrasher (on Sky) reckons the NE and Yorkshire swings from Con to Lab are better than elsewhere, which should aid Balls.
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Hi Andy I don't think that's quite what he said. I thought he said the swing in London to Labour is slightly above the national average but not by as much as the opinion polls were suggesting.AndyJS said:Thrasher: exit poll showing only a slight swing to Labour in London.
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It will be a very fractious Parliament, that is for sure. Can't see it lasting five years.0
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Average UKIP rise 17.2%0
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Time for a new thread maybe - BALLS DEEP IN TROUBLE?0
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Balls coherent and impressive on BBC.0
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Wishing I had a spread bet on Lib Dem lost deposits ...0
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@faisalislam: Essentially the exit poll says that Labour are putting on votes in the wrong places on an epic scale... And not enough votes generally.0
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Kinnock stayed on after 1987, promptly losing in 92.JosiasJessop said:
This is massively silly speculation at this stage, but if Labour did lose, and lose badly, would Ed have to step down as leader? And if he did, would he also think: "sod this!" and resign his seat, especially if pushed from the leadership?SeanT said:
I have doubts, but I am now fairly sure Cameron will be PM again, and Ed Miliband will be gone.TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't be to downbeat, most of us Tories have doubts about this poll.murali_s said:Terrible exit poll for Labour and a superb one for the Tories.
I'm a little devastated obviously but if this mirrors the actual results then congrats to all the Tories on here.
Although it would be more fun if Labour lost heavily and Ed stayed on ...0 -
The left do well in Scotland because right leaning Scots are more likely to move elsewhere in the UK.SeanT said:
Ludicrous. The SNP do well in Scotland as a leftwing party because they do not have to raise the taxes to finance the public spending they disburse. Their "lefty" popularity is an hallucination.Danny565 said:
LMAO at the misplaced triumphalism. The main reason for this disaster is Labour being wiped out by a party on their LEFT in Scotland.JonathanD said:Brilliant
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul 2m2 minutes ago
Neil Kinnock has got his party back now.
Cameron, as next PM, should give them Full Fiscal Autonomy, or something close.
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Is Rentoul deemed labour still. Didn't think he was pure of heart enough these daysProdicus said:Labour civil war. Polly on Rentoul action!
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Ed Balls looks and sounds awful. He must be out.0
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The Shy Tories guy at Number Cruncher AND Kellner BOTH said they have never found a result where the party with the most popular leader lost an election. Dave lead Ed by miles almost down to the wire.0
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Ed Balls reminding me why I'd dearly love him to do a Portillo right now on BBC0
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Balls saying Cameron on knife edge.
But is Balls himself on a knife edge????????????0 -
Balls describes Miliband as "Centre centre left"0
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Odds on ukip are drifting in south thanet.0
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Paging TSE.MarqueeMark said:Time for a new thread maybe - BALLS DEEP IN TROUBLE?
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He was alllllrrriiiiggghhhhttttSunil_Prasannan said:
Kinnock stayed on after 1987, promptly losing in 92.JosiasJessop said:
This is massively silly speculation at this stage, but if Labour did lose, and lose badly, would Ed have to step down as leader? And if he did, would he also think: "sod this!" and resign his seat, especially if pushed from the leadership?SeanT said:
I have doubts, but I am now fairly sure Cameron will be PM again, and Ed Miliband will be gone.TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't be to downbeat, most of us Tories have doubts about this poll.murali_s said:Terrible exit poll for Labour and a superb one for the Tories.
I'm a little devastated obviously but if this mirrors the actual results then congrats to all the Tories on here.
Although it would be more fun if Labour lost heavily and Ed stayed on ...0 -
As predicted by yours truly ;-)Scott_P said:@faisalislam: Essentially the exit poll says that Labour are putting on votes in the wrong places on an epic scale... And not enough votes generally.
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He knows he won't be the next Chancellor of the ExchequerGravitation said:Ed Balls looks and sounds awful. He must be out.
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Balls know's the games up for Labour, IMO.0
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What other leaders were available?TCPoliticalBetting said:To echo an ex member of PB. Socialists never learn.
For almost 5 years Labour have known that they had a duff Leader. Yet they sat back and ignored the problem and never did anything about it. Will they learn?0 -
Looks like an early night.
JackW looks amazingly accurate at this stage.
Balls talking Balls if Con have 20 or more seats than Lab IMO0 -
If cons hold Broxtowe, it will be a miracle. It's not going to happen folks.0
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Even after picking up in recent days, Ed Mil is STILL not even as popular as Dave's worst ratings.0
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He's not quite with it is he?MarqueeMark said:
Not his usual bullish self is he?Stark_Dawning said:Is it just me or is Mr Balls speaking through a terrified rictus?
Hur.....
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You really think the Conservatives being ahead by 77 is due to EdStone? Really? It's probably the SNP effect combined with Miliband's approval ratings, and people have little confidence in Labour's competence.Ishmael_X said:
No one is making any such assumption.The_Apocalypse said:
That's because Tories are too busy celebrating and thinking Labour will never be the largest party in a parliament ever again. I understand being happy; what I don't understand is why you'd assume based on tonight's results the Tories will govern the UK forever. A tad hyperbolic from many on here.Danny565 said:
Yes - I think something that's being missed in this is that, even on the basis of the exit poll, although the Tories would be the "winners", it would still be very hard for the Tories to get things through parliament. A new election would beckon, unless the Tories can get a few more seats than the exit.FrancisUrquhart said:Lets imagine Tories + Lib Dem's end up say 20 short...could we still be looking at another GE in a few months?
Labour are spinning they could have a Coalition of the losers, but really, really, that wouldn't work.
PS If you'd like me to talk you through the Sheffield Effect and the EdStone again I'm here all night.
And some are making such assumptions, claiming Labour are becoming 'obsolete', and that Labour will become 'extinct' outside of London, and are collapsing 'piece by piece, region by region'.
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They keep talking about a majority being 326. How many Sinn Fein MPs are there, and do they still not turn up?0
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What time's Nuneaton expected? Around 1.30am?0
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The exit poll is predicting about 20 Labour gains assuming 40 losses in Scotland. Considering that they are probably going to get atleast 10 Liberal ones that does not leave many from the Tories at all.
Will Nick Palmer be one of the few gains??0 -
Farage in trouble0
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The reality is that in the N-E so far it has been overwhelmingly Lab (forget the swings, they have huge majorities).
Which means that whole economic communities are not feeling the recovery, such as it is, and perhaps feel left out of economic progress that has been made for the past generation and more.
That is something that any new govt needs to address.0 -
election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_by_time.phpMorris_Dancer said:What time's Nuneaton expected? Around 1.30am?
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Oi!bigjohnowls said:Looks like an early night.
JackW looks amazingly accurate at this stage.
Balls talking Balls if Con have 20 or more seats than Lab IMO
I was much more accurate: lower on LDs than JackW, higher on the Cons0 -
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If you're reading this, Prime Minister... *waves*0
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We discussed this earlier - Lord Ashcrofts 3k poll highlighted it.SouthamObserver said:
As predicted by yours truly ;-)Scott_P said:@faisalislam: Essentially the exit poll says that Labour are putting on votes in the wrong places on an epic scale... And not enough votes generally.
OGHs prediction profoundly different to the exit poll.0 -
I really hope not. His complacency was pretty sadSaltire said:The exit poll is predicting about 20 Labour gains assuming 40 losses in Scotland. Considering that they are probably going to get atleast 10 Liberal ones that does not leave many from the Tories at all.
Will Nick Palmer be one of the few gains??0 -
Thanks, Miss Plato.0
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Didn't the DUP poll even worse than the SNP in polls of prospective coalition partners?0
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DUP being honest 'there will be a price to pay'
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Can ukip get over 2 seats even without farage. I think they can.0
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I agree entirely: Nick is one of the best posters on PB, but I'm afraid Soubry is a class act. I expect her to be promoted if she wins.RobD said:
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You're welcome!Ave_it said:
Hello Sunil - thanks for all the charts and humour!Sunil_Prasannan said:I ended up voting LAB in Ilford North. Turnout was supposedly "rather good" according to polling station staff.
Dodgy for LAB in London now?
But I almost flipped a coin, could easily have gone for the Blues
If the Exit Poll is correct, then does that make today VE Day - Victory Over Ed day!0 -
Around 1am, could be 1:30.Morris_Dancer said:What time's Nuneaton expected? Around 1.30am?
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A 1,000 comments in less than two hours.0
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Jack W, apologies I thought weird Ed was going to be in the moving truck on Friday, should have had faith.0
