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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    Have the Panda v. Tory bets been settled already?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    Chameleon85 Morley due at 4.30am may be longer if a recount
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Balls sounded rattled, I hope he's gone.
    Moses_ said:

    Ed Balls on Sky.. If exit poll right Cameron would be clinging on

    Sky ticker -- Labour source stating Labour have wiped out the coalition based on exit poll

    I reckon Balls knows he is fecked

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767
    Ok going to try and grab another hours sleep.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    Will the BBC feed these numbers into their exit poll, and provide an updated one?

    They'll wait for a few more results before modifying the exit poll.
  • trubluetrublue Posts: 103
    Floater said:

    Scott_P said:

    @WikiGuido: Tories pushing Ed Balls out rumour. Surely not...

    s it me or does Balls look rattled?
    He certainly sounded a worried man on Sky News. I think there's a very real chance he's toast.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited May 2015
    SeanT said:

    It is now possible to envisage the entire extinction of Labour, outside London.

    Already dead in Scotland, UKIP harrying them in northern England, PC posed in Wales.

    This is how a great party dies, by electing a quasi-Marxist North London dickhead as leader, then building an Obelisk.

    Okay calm down. Labour have done badly, but they'll be back. People though the Tories would never win again in 1997.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Last GE, Sky were fast on everything, BBC minutes behind. Not mention unpolluted by Guardianista group-think.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    loving behind the scene at Sky News coverage on SKY Arts 1
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Ed B, looking very rattled Sufi g his sky interview. Hopefully he knows something we, yet, don't.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    What about the rumours of losing Maidstone? That sounded bonkers - even more so now.
    Mortimer said:

    Hazel Grove forecast Con Gain?! Good grief, no wonder Cameron hasn't slept for 3 days. He must be sensing a majority.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Plato said:

    Who's Barron?

    Pulpstar said:

    Could Barron be in trouble ?

    Kevin Barron, Labour MP for Rother Valley since 1983.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    Just for a bit of fun, Con to Lab swings at by-elections since 2010:

    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · now
    Just for comparison, #Conservatives to #Labour swings at by-elections since 2010. Average = 7.7%

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596440081554014209







  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    Lets imagine Tories + Lib Dem's end up say 20 short...could we still be looking at another GE in a few months?

    Labour are spinning they could have a Coalition of the losers, but really, really, that wouldn't work.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    SeanT said:

    It is now possible to envisage the entire extinction of Labour, outside London.

    Already dead in Scotland, UKIP harrying them in northern England, PC posed in Wales.

    This is how a great party dies, by electing a quasi-Marxist North London dickhead as leader, then building an Obelisk.

    Okay calm down. Labour have done badly, but they'll be back. People though the Tories would never win again in 1997.
    Well, we still haven't won since then :(
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Not many comments on the Exit Poll giving Plaid 4 seats so far. They could get 5 with the current Lib Dem and Labour destruction.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Two dreadful results for Labour. Flatlining.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    Predicted that Andrew George gone in St Ives - at this rate Paddy will be eating his hat
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393
    odd - yesterday I was reading on here how it was impossible cons to be largest party inc OGH making very firm statements to that effect - where have all those people gone?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Dair said:

    Not many comments on the Exit Poll giving Plaid 4 seats so far. They could get 5 with the current Lib Dem and Labour destruction.

    I'm on PC in Ceridgion
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mind you, if the exit poll is right, tomorrow must be Martin Day.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2015

    Lets imagine Tories + Lib Dem's end up say 20 short...could we still be looking at another GE in a few months?

    Labour are spinning they could have a Coalition of the losers, but really, really, that wouldn't work.

    Yes - I think something that's being missed in this is that, even on the basis of the exit poll, although the Tories would be the "winners", it would still be very hard for the Tories to get things through parliament. A new election would beckon, unless the Tories can get a few more seats than the exit.
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    Artist said:

    If we hadn't had the exit poll, there wouldn't have been anything notable about the first two results.

    Never going to be anything notable in Sunderland, if they were not the first to declare they would get but a passing mention. The Mackem mp wants change in Sunderland, I suggest voting somebody else other than Labour election after election might help in that aim.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Ashen faced Labour monitors in Motherwell count.
  • To echo an ex member of PB. Socialists never learn.
    For almost 5 years Labour have known that they had a duff Leader. Yet they sat back and ignored the problem and never did anything about it. Will they learn?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    This election has seen a return to two party politics if the exit poll is right. Forget Scotland, that now has one party politics and is the same as Northern Ireland and its own little bubble.

    England and Wales has 573 MPs. Tory and Labour would have 555 between them (97% of the seats and just 18 others).
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Labour fast becoming obsolete.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Plato said:

    What about the rumours of losing Maidstone? That sounded bonkers - even more so now.

    Mortimer said:

    Hazel Grove forecast Con Gain?! Good grief, no wonder Cameron hasn't slept for 3 days. He must be sensing a majority.

    Seems unlikely, but there are sometimes strange results...
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Those who were questioning where Cameron was campaigning in the last few days may have to acknowledge he knew what he was doing...
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    rcs1000 said:

    Dair said:

    Not many comments on the Exit Poll giving Plaid 4 seats so far. They could get 5 with the current Lib Dem and Labour destruction.

    I'm on PC in Ceridgion
    ...and you will be collecting shortly.

    CON gain Hampstead and Highgate???
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    SeanT said:

    It is now possible to envisage the entire extinction of Labour, outside London.

    Already dead in Scotland, UKIP harrying them in northern England, PC posed in Wales.

    This is how a great party dies, by electing a quasi-Marxist North London dickhead as leader, then building an Obelisk.

    Yes, a party of the liberal metropolitan elite that betrayed their working men's vote to unlimited immigration. How wonderful to watch it collapse into itself piece by piece, region by region.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676

    murali_s said:

    Terrible exit poll for Labour and a superb one for the Tories.

    I'm a little devastated obviously but if this mirrors the actual results then congrats to all the Tories on here.

    Don't be to downbeat, most of us Tories have doubts about this poll.
    Exactly.

    Not that I'm not enjoying the moment but am braced for an it's all gone horribly wrong moment.

    That said I really do think Natalie is a plonker. "Centre of British politics" on 2 seats (perhaps).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    To echo an ex member of PB. Socialists never learn.
    For almost 5 years Labour have known that they had a duff Leader. Yet they sat back and ignored the problem and never did anything about it. Will they learn?

    They need to be a bit more like PB Tories. They are always right, and always learn.

    A pity.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Agree with RodCrosby. Tories must not be hubristic. Too early, too early for that.

    Fair play to lefties who are fronting up at the moment.

    I still fear a disateously inaccurate exit poll seats outcome

    The exit poll is gold standard, relatively speaking. It has the new political landscape to contend with, but its nuts and bolts methodology is as it always has been: face-to-face, and entirely unaffected by technological changes. I'd trust it every time over the polling companies.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    LD lost deposit count 2

    I have a fair bit on over 200 lost deposits for LD.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    It is now possible to envisage the entire extinction of Labour, outside London.

    Already dead in Scotland, UKIP harrying them in northern England, PC posed in Wales.

    This is how a great party dies, by electing a quasi-Marxist North London dickhead as leader, then building an Obelisk.

    Okay calm down. Labour have done badly, but they'll be back. People though the Tories would never win again in 1997.
    Well, we still haven't won since then :(
    Well that's true - but I thought that mentioning it would be a bit much from a sympathiser of party who are predicted to get 239!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL

    Mind you, if the exit poll is right, tomorrow must be Martin Day.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Mind you, if the exit poll is right, tomorrow must be Martin Day.

    Like.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited May 2015
    Hell yeah...at least I tried....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggA0vSzwRYo
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Ave_it said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dair said:

    Not many comments on the Exit Poll giving Plaid 4 seats so far. They could get 5 with the current Lib Dem and Labour destruction.

    I'm on PC in Ceridgion
    ...and you will be collecting shortly.

    CON gain Hampstead and Highgate???
    I think that's entirely possible. Good LD candidate restricted LD->Lab switching and may have handed it to the Cons.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,678

    SeanT said:

    It is now possible to envisage the entire extinction of Labour, outside London.

    Already dead in Scotland, UKIP harrying them in northern England, PC posed in Wales.

    This is how a great party dies, by electing a quasi-Marxist North London dickhead as leader, then building an Obelisk.

    Okay calm down. Labour have done badly, but they'll be back. People though the Tories would never win again in 1997.
    To be honest, if they lose tonight, Labour will get new leadership and probably more energy and drive. I've always felt that they weren't overkeen on returning to government this time. I'd think they'd probably be in a good position for 2020 if we went the whole parliament.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Brilliant

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul 2m2 minutes ago
    Neil Kinnock has got his party back now.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Ave_it said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dair said:

    Not many comments on the Exit Poll giving Plaid 4 seats so far. They could get 5 with the current Lib Dem and Labour destruction.

    I'm on PC in Ceridgion
    ...and you will be collecting shortly.

    CON gain Hampstead and Highgate???
    Not Hampstead, but Southampton Itchen may be interesting.
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393

    Mind you, if the exit poll is right, tomorrow must be Martin Day.

    HAHA taxi for Nick Clegg - whatever happened to him?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Come on LibDems. Don't get less than 11...
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    LD lost deposit count 2

    I have a fair bit on over 200 lost deposits for LD.
    Think that is absolutely safe - could be nearer 500

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    SeanT said:

    murali_s said:

    Terrible exit poll for Labour and a superb one for the Tories.

    I'm a little devastated obviously but if this mirrors the actual results then congrats to all the Tories on here.

    Don't be to downbeat, most of us Tories have doubts about this poll.
    I have doubts, but I am now fairly sure Cameron will be PM again, and Ed Miliband will be gone.
    This is massively silly speculation at this stage, but if Labour did lose, and lose badly, would Ed have to step down as leader? And if he did, would he also think: "sod this!" and resign his seat, especially if pushed from the leadership?

    Although it would be more fun if Labour lost heavily and Ed stayed on ...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121
    RodCrosby said:

    GIN1138 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Con vote up on 2010, Lab down...

    Wtf?

    Sunderland does not compute.

    Don't forget Brown did well in Scotland. If Lab have barely moved in England and are wiped out in Scotland then...
    Labour have had two excellent results in Sunderland, compared to 2010.

    Something's wrong.
    Curtice said exit poll predicts Lab does well in N/E?

    These little seats in the N/E are always a bit different. I remember in 2010 the Lab/Con swing was huge and for about a couple of hours everyone thought the Tories might just get a majority...

    In 2015 Sunderland pointed to Tony losing his majority, etc...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Bets that are looking good:

    £45 @ 7-2 Dave to see out the year

    Bets that are looking less good:

    Balls Chancellor:

    £50 @ 7-2
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Robinson quoting Labour source: "Farage could come third."
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Twelve, they'll have a new leader, but it could be a case of one bad leader following another if Chuka Umunna gets it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690

    LD lost deposit count 2

    I have a fair bit on over 200 lost deposits for LD.
    I have £2 on that. That was the maximum I was allowed...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    JonathanD said:

    Brilliant

    John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul 2m2 minutes ago
    Neil Kinnock has got his party back now.

    LMAO at the misplaced triumphalism. The main reason for this disaster is Labour being wiped out by a party on their LEFT in Scotland.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The BBC said the exit poll showed the north-east was performing much better for Labour than elsewhere.
    RodCrosby said:

    GIN1138 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Con vote up on 2010, Lab down...

    Wtf?

    Sunderland does not compute.

    Don't forget Brown did well in Scotland. If Lab have barely moved in England and are wiped out in Scotland then...
    Labour have had two excellent results in Sunderland, compared to 2010.

    Something's wrong.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BBC coverage so far fairly dire.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Lets imagine Tories + Lib Dem's end up say 20 short...could we still be looking at another GE in a few months?

    Labour are spinning they could have a Coalition of the losers, but really, really, that wouldn't work.

    Even on the exact exit poll numbers Cameron could only be a couple of lost by-elections from losing a vote of confidence even with the support of the DUP.

    The BBC haven't said whether they are giving the Greens Bristol West or Norwich South.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Danny565 said:

    Lets imagine Tories + Lib Dem's end up say 20 short...could we still be looking at another GE in a few months?

    Labour are spinning they could have a Coalition of the losers, but really, really, that wouldn't work.

    Yes - I think something that's being missed in this is that, even on the basis of the exit poll, although the Tories would be the "winners", it would still be very hard for the Tories to get things through parliament. A new election would beckon, unless the Tories can get a few more seats than the exit.
    That's because Tories are too busy celebrating and thinking Labour will never be the largest party in a parliament ever again. I understand being happy; what I don't understand is why you'd assume based on tonight's results the Tories will govern the UK forever. A tad hyperbolic from many on here.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited May 2015
    Dair said:

    Another huge UKIP in Sunderland Central.

    I think the Tories are getting ahead of themselves and 15 UKIP is actually possible.

    Green beat Lib Dem again.

    I have long held that UKIP will finish on about 12% of the total vote and will do very well indeed to get 6 seats. Their vote may well be very good in safe seats like Sunderland but I expect it to be nowhere near as strong in Con/Lab marginals.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited May 2015
    If the exit poll is right then this could blow apart the political polling industry completely, but not necessarily because they 'got it wrong'. It is perfectly possible that the vote shares will be pretty much in line with the polls, but UNS is even more of a disaster than expected.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    BBC failing to show another result...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    rcs1000 said:

    Come on LibDems. Don't get less than 11...

    And let 2 of the fuckers be Huppert and CLegg !!!!!!!!!!!!
  • Mind you, if the exit poll is right, tomorrow must be Martin Day.

    Brilliant.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    murali_s said:

    Terrible exit poll for Labour and a superb one for the Tories.

    I'm a little devastated obviously but if this mirrors the actual results then congrats to all the Tories on here.

    Cheer up bud, the way the polls have been going, this may be another load of bollocks and your guys storm it.

    P.S. fair play to you showing your face at this stage of the game.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767
    No, no good, I can't sleep
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676
    Ave_it said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dair said:

    Not many comments on the Exit Poll giving Plaid 4 seats so far. They could get 5 with the current Lib Dem and Labour destruction.

    I'm on PC in Ceridgion
    ...and you will be collecting shortly.

    CON gain Hampstead and Highgate???
    Hampstead & Kilburn & I bl**dy well hope so.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    Not counting any chickens, but if this goes as the exit polls predicts, perhaps PBTories could be renamed PBRighties?
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552

    LD lost deposit count 2

    I have a fair bit on over 200 lost deposits for LD.
    Double it.
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Boom
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    RodCrosby said:

    GIN1138 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Con vote up on 2010, Lab down...

    Wtf?

    Sunderland does not compute.

    Don't forget Brown did well in Scotland. If Lab have barely moved in England and are wiped out in Scotland then...
    Labour have had two excellent results in Sunderland, compared to 2010.

    Something's wrong.
    Forecast by the exit poll - Labour piling up votes in the North-East, but forecast to struggle in Yorkshire. National swing is dead...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour vote up just 863 in Washington & Sunderland West.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Could CARMICHAEL be in trouble ?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    #NorthEastIndependenceNow
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    Lab only up 800
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    rcs1000 said:

    Come on LibDems. Don't get less than 11...

    How gutted would you be if your 11-20 bet lost on the downside?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Come on LibDems. Don't get less than 11...

    And let 2 of the fuckers be Huppert and CLegg !!!!!!!!!!!!
    If Huppert goes, I shall be very sad. He's a good MP.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited May 2015

    Dair said:

    Another huge UKIP in Sunderland Central.

    I think the Tories are getting ahead of themselves and 15 UKIP is actually possible.

    Green beat Lib Dem again.

    I have long held that UKIP will finish on about 12% of the total vote and will do very well indeed to get 6 seats. Their vote may well be very good in safe seats like Sunderland but I expect it to be nowhere near as strong in Con/Lab marginals.
    Maybe the makeup of the UKIP vote is totally misunderstood? Despite all the thought that the Tories needed to get them sub 10%, maybe actually a much bigger % of their vote is disgruntled Labour than previously thought (especially in the likes of the North East).
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Just 800 added votes for Labour in Sunderland W since 2010
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    good night for kips
  • So at least Labour get some unique talent from the first three MPs elected. A hint of the old SLAB group of muppets?
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,464
    Danny565 said:

    Tories projected to GAIN HAZEL GROVE - BBC

    Told you guys weeks ago you should get on it ;)

    Well, yeah, if we're only holding 10, I wouldn't expect HG to be one of them.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    Washington & Sunderland W, Con to Lab swing = only 2.5%
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    Swing only 2.5%
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If +863 is the best it gets for Labour...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Apparently the PM was "pleased" with the exit poll.

    Yeah.....
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Labour fast becoming obsolete.

    They said that in the 80s when Michael Foot was leader, it wasn't true then, it isn't true now.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    UKIP's in second in Sunderland West, up 16%.
    Surely Farage will win in South Thanet...
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    We did less well in Sunderland W last time thus the lower swingback this time!

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    Watch those Green scores!!!

    How many seats will they cost Labour?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    Swings

    4.0
    5.5
    2.5

    Average = 4.0

    Exit North East = 5.0
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Hartlepool Labour may be in trouble on these results...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour +2.4%.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    edited May 2015
    RobD said:

    Apparently the PM was "pleased" with the exit poll.

    Yeah.....

    HELL Yeah!!!!

    Okay, an hour's sleep beckons!
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    JackW said:

    BBC coverage so far fairly dire.

    What i saw of Sky wasn't much better - they've all got their pre-prepared scripts/questions which look completely ridiculous on the back of the Exit poll - there is no way there will be a Con/LibDem coalition on these numbers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Balls deep in trouble
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    3rd Sunderland swing to Labour 2.5, UKIP second up 16.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Me, worth considering Yorkshire in three parts. North is very Conservative, South is very Labour [with the notable exception of Sheffield Hallam] and West Yorkshire is crammed with marginals, many red-blue.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Come on LibDems. Don't get less than 11...

    How gutted would you be if your 11-20 bet lost on the downside?
    I won't actually lose money as I had a covering bet at 16-1. But there's a multi thousand pound difference between 10 seats and 11 seats...
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    All over for balls 1/4 loses his seat DYOR
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Could CARMICHAEL be in trouble ?

    Yes, he is/ Everyone is in trouble. They've all got lies - remember the Guardian documentary on Tom Clark. It's all like that, all over Scotland. "Aye, we'll vote for you like always" (Thinking: No chance, I'm SNP).
This discussion has been closed.