odd - yesterday I was reading on here how it was impossible cons to be largest party inc OGH making very firm statements to that effect - where have all those people gone?
Lets imagine Tories + Lib Dem's end up say 20 short...could we still be looking at another GE in a few months?
Labour are spinning they could have a Coalition of the losers, but really, really, that wouldn't work.
Yes - I think something that's being missed in this is that, even on the basis of the exit poll, although the Tories would be the "winners", it would still be very hard for the Tories to get things through parliament. A new election would beckon, unless the Tories can get a few more seats than the exit.
If we hadn't had the exit poll, there wouldn't have been anything notable about the first two results.
Never going to be anything notable in Sunderland, if they were not the first to declare they would get but a passing mention. The Mackem mp wants change in Sunderland, I suggest voting somebody else other than Labour election after election might help in that aim.
To echo an ex member of PB. Socialists never learn. For almost 5 years Labour have known that they had a duff Leader. Yet they sat back and ignored the problem and never did anything about it. Will they learn?
This election has seen a return to two party politics if the exit poll is right. Forget Scotland, that now has one party politics and is the same as Northern Ireland and its own little bubble.
England and Wales has 573 MPs. Tory and Labour would have 555 between them (97% of the seats and just 18 others).
It is now possible to envisage the entire extinction of Labour, outside London.
Already dead in Scotland, UKIP harrying them in northern England, PC posed in Wales.
This is how a great party dies, by electing a quasi-Marxist North London dickhead as leader, then building an Obelisk.
Yes, a party of the liberal metropolitan elite that betrayed their working men's vote to unlimited immigration. How wonderful to watch it collapse into itself piece by piece, region by region.
To echo an ex member of PB. Socialists never learn. For almost 5 years Labour have known that they had a duff Leader. Yet they sat back and ignored the problem and never did anything about it. Will they learn?
They need to be a bit more like PB Tories. They are always right, and always learn.
Agree with RodCrosby. Tories must not be hubristic. Too early, too early for that.
Fair play to lefties who are fronting up at the moment.
I still fear a disateously inaccurate exit poll seats outcome
The exit poll is gold standard, relatively speaking. It has the new political landscape to contend with, but its nuts and bolts methodology is as it always has been: face-to-face, and entirely unaffected by technological changes. I'd trust it every time over the polling companies.
It is now possible to envisage the entire extinction of Labour, outside London.
Already dead in Scotland, UKIP harrying them in northern England, PC posed in Wales.
This is how a great party dies, by electing a quasi-Marxist North London dickhead as leader, then building an Obelisk.
Okay calm down. Labour have done badly, but they'll be back. People though the Tories would never win again in 1997.
To be honest, if they lose tonight, Labour will get new leadership and probably more energy and drive. I've always felt that they weren't overkeen on returning to government this time. I'd think they'd probably be in a good position for 2020 if we went the whole parliament.
Terrible exit poll for Labour and a superb one for the Tories.
I'm a little devastated obviously but if this mirrors the actual results then congrats to all the Tories on here.
Don't be to downbeat, most of us Tories have doubts about this poll.
I have doubts, but I am now fairly sure Cameron will be PM again, and Ed Miliband will be gone.
This is massively silly speculation at this stage, but if Labour did lose, and lose badly, would Ed have to step down as leader? And if he did, would he also think: "sod this!" and resign his seat, especially if pushed from the leadership?
Although it would be more fun if Labour lost heavily and Ed stayed on ...
Don't forget Brown did well in Scotland. If Lab have barely moved in England and are wiped out in Scotland then...
Labour have had two excellent results in Sunderland, compared to 2010.
Something's wrong.
Curtice said exit poll predicts Lab does well in N/E?
These little seats in the N/E are always a bit different. I remember in 2010 the Lab/Con swing was huge and for about a couple of hours everyone thought the Tories might just get a majority...
In 2015 Sunderland pointed to Tony losing his majority, etc...
Lets imagine Tories + Lib Dem's end up say 20 short...could we still be looking at another GE in a few months?
Labour are spinning they could have a Coalition of the losers, but really, really, that wouldn't work.
Even on the exact exit poll numbers Cameron could only be a couple of lost by-elections from losing a vote of confidence even with the support of the DUP.
The BBC haven't said whether they are giving the Greens Bristol West or Norwich South.
Lets imagine Tories + Lib Dem's end up say 20 short...could we still be looking at another GE in a few months?
Labour are spinning they could have a Coalition of the losers, but really, really, that wouldn't work.
Yes - I think something that's being missed in this is that, even on the basis of the exit poll, although the Tories would be the "winners", it would still be very hard for the Tories to get things through parliament. A new election would beckon, unless the Tories can get a few more seats than the exit.
That's because Tories are too busy celebrating and thinking Labour will never be the largest party in a parliament ever again. I understand being happy; what I don't understand is why you'd assume based on tonight's results the Tories will govern the UK forever. A tad hyperbolic from many on here.
I think the Tories are getting ahead of themselves and 15 UKIP is actually possible.
Green beat Lib Dem again.
I have long held that UKIP will finish on about 12% of the total vote and will do very well indeed to get 6 seats. Their vote may well be very good in safe seats like Sunderland but I expect it to be nowhere near as strong in Con/Lab marginals.
If the exit poll is right then this could blow apart the political polling industry completely, but not necessarily because they 'got it wrong'. It is perfectly possible that the vote shares will be pretty much in line with the polls, but UNS is even more of a disaster than expected.
I think the Tories are getting ahead of themselves and 15 UKIP is actually possible.
Green beat Lib Dem again.
I have long held that UKIP will finish on about 12% of the total vote and will do very well indeed to get 6 seats. Their vote may well be very good in safe seats like Sunderland but I expect it to be nowhere near as strong in Con/Lab marginals.
Maybe the makeup of the UKIP vote is totally misunderstood? Despite all the thought that the Tories needed to get them sub 10%, maybe actually a much bigger % of their vote is disgruntled Labour than previously thought (especially in the likes of the North East).
What i saw of Sky wasn't much better - they've all got their pre-prepared scripts/questions which look completely ridiculous on the back of the Exit poll - there is no way there will be a Con/LibDem coalition on these numbers.
Mr. Me, worth considering Yorkshire in three parts. North is very Conservative, South is very Labour [with the notable exception of Sheffield Hallam] and West Yorkshire is crammed with marginals, many red-blue.
Yes, he is/ Everyone is in trouble. They've all got lies - remember the Guardian documentary on Tom Clark. It's all like that, all over Scotland. "Aye, we'll vote for you like always" (Thinking: No chance, I'm SNP).
Comments
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · now
Just for comparison, #Conservatives to #Labour swings at by-elections since 2010. Average = 7.7%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596440081554014209
Labour are spinning they could have a Coalition of the losers, but really, really, that wouldn't work.
For almost 5 years Labour have known that they had a duff Leader. Yet they sat back and ignored the problem and never did anything about it. Will they learn?
England and Wales has 573 MPs. Tory and Labour would have 555 between them (97% of the seats and just 18 others).
CON gain Hampstead and Highgate???
Not that I'm not enjoying the moment but am braced for an it's all gone horribly wrong moment.
That said I really do think Natalie is a plonker. "Centre of British politics" on 2 seats (perhaps).
A pity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggA0vSzwRYo
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul 2m2 minutes ago
Neil Kinnock has got his party back now.
Although it would be more fun if Labour lost heavily and Ed stayed on ...
These little seats in the N/E are always a bit different. I remember in 2010 the Lab/Con swing was huge and for about a couple of hours everyone thought the Tories might just get a majority...
In 2015 Sunderland pointed to Tony losing his majority, etc...
£45 @ 7-2 Dave to see out the year
Bets that are looking less good:
Balls Chancellor:
£50 @ 7-2
The BBC haven't said whether they are giving the Greens Bristol West or Norwich South.
P.S. fair play to you showing your face at this stage of the game.
Yeah.....
Surely Farage will win in South Thanet...
How many seats will they cost Labour?
4.0
5.5
2.5
Average = 4.0
Exit North East = 5.0
Okay, an hour's sleep beckons!