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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    791 for lib dem??
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    Universities will be taking applications for new PhD's to start in the autumn to analyze this election, the exit polls vs pollsters performance, etc. Be fascinating opportunity for somebody.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,039
    First of how many UKIP seconds tonight?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    Lib Dems got smashed.
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    EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    LD LOL Sunderland S
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The official in charge of our polling station wouldn't let us inside = even for toilet break and even if we didn't wear a rosette!

    It was in a youth centre - is that legal? I'm going to poke enormous fun at Mrs Po Face in the local press over it. How ridiculous.

    Plato said:

    Fun anecdote - one of my LD teller compatriots told me of a spoilt ballot paper that was accepted.

    A voter had expertly drawn a cannabis leaf in the box and everyone agreed that this was fair.

    Another voter was the wife of a returning officer who was having an affair - she wrote all about it in the little box at the same count. Hilariously awkward there.

    Evening Plato - Keep the 'teller' anecdotes comming, they're hilarious. :lol:
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour only up 2,000 in a North East constituency where they're supposed to be doing better than anywhere else.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623
    Lab have at least 1 MP :lol:
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    A labour hold... I'm shocked, shocked...
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    So thats UKIP second in Sunderland?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,548
    chuffin' hell well done the Kippers. No wonder Nuttall was advocating voting reform.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    Sunderland broadly in line with the exit poll as well.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    While BBC World News is giving us Dimbleby and co BBC America is running back to back episodes of "Kitchen Nightmares"...
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Greens beat Lib dems in Sunderland Houghton ?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,245

    Curtice seems to be full of contradictions.

    If labour are taking most LD seats why arethey on 239. And where do Tory gains come from?

    Labour have to be taking 15 from LDs, if exit polls are correct.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Danny565 said:

    Could Ed Balls really be in trouble? Was the source accurate?

    Probably best for Labour if he is. It's time for a very serious rethink.

    I am not sure the exit poll is 100% accurate, but the Tories are clearly going to be well ahead.

    But Balls is the one of a very very few Labour front benchers who really do know what they are talking about when it comes to economics / business. He has just had to go along with a lot of the anti-business nonsense that Ed has been spouting, while he and Chukka have been running around telling businessmen no no it won't be like that.
    Flipper Balls is up there with Al Campbell. Defenestration couldn't happen to a more deserving individual, if it happens.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Great result for UKIP in Sunderland.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Labour are ahead on actual results!
    (Sunderland)
    :)
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Tim_B said:

    While BBC World News is giving us Dimbleby and co BBC America is running back to back episodes of "Kitchen Nightmares"...

    You got the better deal.

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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    Roger said:

    SO. It looks like you might have hit lucky!!

    No luck in it. This result was never in doubt. Though even I would be slightly surprised if the Tories hit 316.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Sunderland UKIP 2nd 21% I was spot on. LOL :D
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    Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    LD lost deposit count 1
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    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    edited May 2015
    UKIP need some close seconds in those rotten Labour seats in the north, good start.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,039
    And first of how many LD lost deposits?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,718
    First Lib Dem deposit loss of the night
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    UKIP % up but in the wrong place.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,232
    Sunderland Comfortable Labour hold, majority of 13,000 over second placed UKIP, Tories narrowly behind on 3rd, LDs overtaken by the Greens
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Lovely hair :lol:
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Sunderland is not that good for the Tories but very good for UKIP compared with the exit poll.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour putting on just 2,081 votes in Houghton.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623
    I did post the other night:

    Cameron = Major?

    :)
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    Wow.

    Good result for UKIP there.

    Poor turnout in Sunderland H though. 56%
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    BTW, when it is Lib Dem GE campaign starting?
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Turnout level on 2010.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Labour woman doesn't sound confident
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,950
    Sunderland backs the exit poll?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,027
    The exit poll predicted 60 for Lab.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Labour falling short of the exit poll in Sunderland...
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    isamisam Posts: 41,096
    edited May 2015
    @CountfromSesameSt: One lost Lib Dem deposit ah-ah-ah
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    EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    SELL CONS
    SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623
    Swing Con to Lab 4% in Sunderland S
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    4% swing to Labour.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    edited May 2015
    AndyJS said:

    Labour only up 2,000 in a North East constituency where they're supposed to be doing better than anywhere else.

    Con majority? :D
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    BBC focussing on the minutiae...


    The important swing is Con to Lab 4%
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    What was UKIP's highest percentage in a seat at the 2010 election?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    H&SS

    Looks like Labour didn't turn out for them - they got 55% not the predicted 60%. UKIP on 21.5% vs 16% predicted - presumably a lot from Labour and some from the Tories (who under performed)

    Swing of 3.9% vs exit poll prediction of 5%

    LibDems lost first deposit of the night
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,232
    edited May 2015
    Lab up 5% UKIP up 19% Tories down 3% LD down 12% in Sunderland, 4% swing to Labour, but Labour doing best in NE
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,548
    Emily is blending in with Lab hold/gains.

    Where's @SandraM ? What was she thinking?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    Bad omen for Ed Balls as well.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322
    Actual swing 4%

    Exit said swing of 5%
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Thanks Curtice I take it back
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    isamisam Posts: 41,096
    rcs1000 said:

    "Nigel Farage has won and by a bigger margin than people think."

    over 6.5??????
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Swing of 4% to Labour, but UKIP leapfrogged the exit poll prediction for Sunderland.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    V good point regarding the UKIP vote - swing from the major parties to them and making marginals more so
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    edited May 2015
    Ave_it said:

    BBC focussing on the minutiae...


    The important swing is Con to Lab 4%

    and that's in the area where they are supposed to be doing best...
    5% anticipated in exit poll.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    Danny565 said:

    Could Ed Balls really be in trouble? Was the source accurate?

    Probably best for Labour if he is. It's time for a very serious rethink.

    I am not sure the exit poll is 100% accurate, but the Tories are clearly going to be well ahead.

    But Balls is the one of a very very few Labour front benchers who really do know what they are talking about when it comes to economics / business. He has just had to go along with a lot of the anti-business nonsense that Ed has been spouting, while he and Chukka have been running around telling businessmen no no it won't be like that.

    No, Labour needs to start again. Best for all if the old guard goes.

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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    MaxPB said:

    Sunderland broadly in line with the exit poll as well.

    Yes.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Sandpit said:

    First of how many UKIP seconds tonight?

    A shit-load.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    Speedy said:

    Swing of 4% to Labour, but UKIP leapfrogged the exit poll prediction for Sunderland.

    But UKIP only 7% better than the BNP result in 2010
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,718
    Friend just texted

    If Jose Mourinho was Labour Leader, Labour would win this election now
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Will the story be labour boosting votes in places it doesn't matter?
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Terrible for the LDs, Sunderland. Having a feeling they are going to get smashed tonight....
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 48 secs49 seconds ago

    Curtice says that the swing to Lab in Sunderland is actually worse than the exit poll for Lab
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,596
    I have a hat and some ketchup. And I will eat it, if these exit polls are right.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    Will the story be labour boosting votes in places it doesn't matter?

    Yes.

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Farage only needs about 32% to win Thanet South and they've just got 22% in Houghton.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,596
    Greens on 4 figures in Sunderland is good result.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902

    Will the story be labour boosting votes in places it doesn't matter?

    Yep.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Absent minded professor says 'one swallow doesn't make a summer'. Gripping stuff.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,950
    I remember when Tony got his landslide Sunderland gave Labour 30,000+ votes.

    Ed seem's to have barely improved on what Brown did...
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,039

    Friend just texted

    If Jose Mourinho was Labour Leader, Labour would win this election now

    But they have Ed Miliband.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    We can deduce the overall swing should be between -11 or +3.

    i.e. we can deduce nothing, although it's a good result for Labour.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Judging by the Sunderland result compared to the projection, it seems the exit poll slightly overstated both Tories and Labour, and understated UKIP.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,027
    Annoyingly, the BBC page doesn't autorefresh.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    I have a hat and some ketchup. And I will eat it, if these exit polls are right.

    Photos please! :)
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    About 2 hours till Nuneaton.
    The result that will determine if the exit poll is right or wrong.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    On the basis of Sunderland lost deposit, Clegg must be a little worried.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rosschawkins: UKIP second in Sunderland - they'll hope to win councillors tonight in locals, challenge in future in north
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,942
    Farron to be Lib Dem leader by next week?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,096

    Speedy said:

    Swing of 4% to Labour, but UKIP leapfrogged the exit poll prediction for Sunderland.

    But UKIP only 7% better than the BNP result in 2010
    eh?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Won't have to wait long for the Scottish Labour old guard to go...

    Danny565 said:

    Could Ed Balls really be in trouble? Was the source accurate?

    Probably best for Labour if he is. It's time for a very serious rethink.

    I am not sure the exit poll is 100% accurate, but the Tories are clearly going to be well ahead.

    But Balls is the one of a very very few Labour front benchers who really do know what they are talking about when it comes to economics / business. He has just had to go along with a lot of the anti-business nonsense that Ed has been spouting, while he and Chukka have been running around telling businessmen no no it won't be like that.

    No, Labour needs to start again. Best for all if the old guard goes.

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    56% turnout, 55% in 2010.

    BNP 5.2 and UKIP 2.7 in 2010 was one of highest scoring BNP seats.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    Just a word of caution.

    The swing to Tories in early declarations in 2010 was much better than overall...it resulted in lots of Tories early on becoming convinced Exit Poll understating Tories, but in reality Tories missed in a lot of "easy" seats.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: Looks like my pessimistic blog about Labour yesterday may not have been pessimistic enough.... http://t.co/o5KA28iTu5
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Swing of 4% to Labour, but UKIP leapfrogged the exit poll prediction for Sunderland.

    But UKIP only 7% better than the BNP result in 2010
    6% higher than the exit poll.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Roger said:

    Farron to be Lib Dem leader by next week?

    If he holds his seat!
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,245
    Roger said:

    Farron to be Lib Dem leader by next week?

    Hearing Westmoreland is close...
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,039
    MaxPB said:

    Bad omen for Ed Balls as well.

    Please, PLEASE PLEASE can we have an Ed Balls 'moment' tonight!
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Speedy said:

    Swing of 4% to Labour, but UKIP leapfrogged the exit poll prediction for Sunderland.

    But UKIP only 7% better than the BNP result in 2010
    Eh? UKIP got 22%. BNP got 5% in 2010...
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    RodCrosby said:

    We can deduce the overall swing should be between -11 or +3.

    i.e. we can deduce nothing, although it's a good result for Labour.

    It's actually worse than the exit poll predicted...
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Sunderland result points to Tory majority IMO.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2015
    ITV Cymru

    Lib Dem sources aren’t conceding Cardiff Central which they say is ‘very close’ and in recount territory.

    Welsh Conservative sources not giving up on Cardiff North saying it’s on a knife edge + ‘We can’t read it at all
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,071
    Yorkshire bad for Labour.

    Balls losing really would be a silver lining.
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    SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Sandpit said:

    And first of how many LD lost deposits?

    200+? A fair chunk of change for the party to shell out no matter what.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Mandelson accuses Cameron of whipping up a frenzy of English nationalism.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Just a word of caution.

    The swing to Tories in early declarations in 2010 was much better than overall...it resulted in lots of Tories early on becoming convinced Exit Poll understating Tories, but in reality Tories missed in a lot of "easy" seats.

    Nuneaton will tell, 2 hours till then though.
This discussion has been closed.