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  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Emily is fabulous
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Clearly lots of very, very close seats.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Plato said:

    I bought three bottles of cava plonk to dull the dog's breakfast I expected.

    I've just popped the first cork for entirely different reasons. If the exit poll is nonsense, I'm going to anesthetise my sunburn and enjoy the fun until it's debunked.

    Chameleon said:

    I'm going to faint with joy if this poll is like '92 as well as Cable and Balls out on their arses.

    Me too. I've been morose all day and didn't bring in any alcohol. Standing to make a lot of money. I bet heavily on LD's under 20 MPs as well as elsewhere.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Emily Maitlis projecting a big Labour rise in Sunderland, while a drop in top target North Warwickshire. It seems the "bias" in the electoral system has been totally reversed.
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    MikeL said:

    Can someone clarify the YouGov poll?

    Exit?

    Sample size?

    Methodology?

    It's a poll of 6.000 people, presumably from their panel. It's another poll not an exit poll.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6446050/Tories-set-for-win-exit-poll-suggest.html
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Emily Maitlis in a bright red dress!

    She will be in tears if the exit polls are correct.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Over at LabourList they are still voiceless
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676

    Harma trotting out the same line Labour tried in 1992 when exit poll came out that a lost majority automatically means lost right to rule despite being largest party.

    (Oh, hello btw from long time lurker!)

    welcome and well exactly.

    Our ruling parties have always had a 35%-ish share of the electorate. If now Lab are saying that for every election it is the 65% opposition that should have been, um, the ruling party, then they have lost all shame.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Who could have thought that JackW and Rod were underestimating the Conservatives?!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    Just for a bit of fun, assuming Exit Poll is right!

    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 4 mins4 minutes ago
    Final ELBOW (week-ending 7th May) Lab 33.6 (-0.3), Con 33.3 (-0.5), UKIP 13.2 (+0.3), LD 9.0 (+0.5), Grn 4.8 (-0.2)

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596426141847711745
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,494
    Intriguing choice of exit polls, both of them producing an awkward result without an obvious majority, though obviously would be better than expected for Cameron. I can confirm that there were a higher number than usual of expected Labour voters in my patch who declined to say how they were voting, which isn't usually a good sign. But I won't comment more till we see the result.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    It makes sense now why EdM was campaigning in N Warks...

    jeeezz.... labour really really struggling to pick up even easy seats on those exit polls

  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,892
    rcs1000 said:

    Conservative minority with DUP support, most obvious outcome

    Would require 100% compliance from every Tory MP on every vote.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    How many Pollsters will commit sepuku after this election?
  • John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    I'm sitting here watching the odds of a Tory absolute majority shorten at Betfair. They're 9.4 now. They were something like 17 a few hours ago. Oops - already down to 9 as I speak.

    How about pundits stop so slavishly following pollsters next time?

    Basically yes it is like 1992.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Squirrel down.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    RodCrosby said:

    £ up 2c against $

    It's going to be a good day for my customers tomorrow...
  • JGCJGC Posts: 64
    Perhaps the two polls are not that far apart, the BBC/ITV/Sky poll depends on the LDs doing very badly against the tories and the SNP sweeping the board, if either of those thing is just slightly wrong then it would make yougov more accurate. I am very dubious they have got scotland right, I do think the LDs have done badly in the south west but this seems to far out.

    Also note UKIP tweets seeming very down on Thurrock
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Where are the PB Labour posters?

    I'm a Lab sympathizer, I'm here. I think some others (Roger?) are posting too. Don't worry ;)
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    LD President says Clegg is very secure in Hallam
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    The right to rule comes from commanding a majority in the house, not being the largest party.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Chris123 said:

    MikeL said:

    Can someone clarify the YouGov poll?

    Exit?

    Sample size?

    Methodology?

    It's a poll of 6.000 people, presumably from their panel. It's another poll not an exit poll.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6446050/Tories-set-for-win-exit-poll-suggest.html
    Yep You Gov is a VI. Complete load of utter rubbish.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Where is the Green gain predicted! Norwich South?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Ashdown saying 30 LD seats...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Uncle Vince must be toast on this, surely !
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    Plato said:

    I bought three bottles of cava plonk to dull the dog's breakfast I expected.

    I've just popped the first cork for entirely different reasons. If the exit poll is nonsense, I'm going to anesthetise my sunburn and enjoy the fun until it's debunked.

    Chameleon said:

    I'm going to faint with joy if this poll is like '92 as well as Cable and Balls out on their arses.

    You deserve it! I'm regretting only having a dribble of Islay malt in the house. May have to go down to the bar nearest the count!

    Incidentally, down here I find most tellers understand local politics much better than I do, but are less well versed in the national picture. PB is like the a degree level History course - a great overview for trends, less useful for specifics.

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Emily Maitlis looks like she is going to cry.....

    If SNP do get 58 seats, how can there not be another SIndy Referendum?

    BEcause that will require an SNP vote in 2016. Obviously it will likely return a mandate for the Second Indyref. But this election has nothing to do with another Indyref.

    It might justify one on the 2016 Manifesto, of course.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    The postal votes will favour the Tories, so the BBC exit poll is overstating Labour. This looks like a disaster for Labour.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    Did Jon Sopel just name the wrong Miliband?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited May 2015
    Kellner saying well we REINTERVIEWED 6000 people today and we didn't see any movement, so I don't understand.

    Could it be that there is something wrong with your sample group?

    The BBC Labour spinning is incredibly. If the Exit poll is correct there are all going to be in tears by the end of the night.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    Where are the PB Labour posters?

    I'm surprised IOS isn't here to talk about Labour's ground game.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    For everyones info, the exit poll predicted Lab 60, Con 20, UKIP 16 for the Sunderland seat to declare first.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Sunderland seats will show swing to LAB as LD collapses - don't take too much note of this!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If it's still true that Labour have done well in London, they must have done horrendously in the rest of England outside the capital.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Kellner saying well we REINTERVIEWED 6000 people today and we didn't see any movement, so I don't understand.

    Could it be that there is something wrong with your sample group?

    Not like it's a self selecting group or anything...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    I think there are a lot of very close seats, so my guess is that the Conservatives will end up very near to JackW, and that the LibDems will end up in the mid teens.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Sean_F said:

    Where are the PB Labour posters?

    I'm surprised IOS isn't here to talk about Labour's ground game.
    Naughty :D
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    yes yes yes
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767

    Chris123 said:

    MikeL said:

    Can someone clarify the YouGov poll?

    Exit?

    Sample size?

    Methodology?

    It's a poll of 6.000 people, presumably from their panel. It's another poll not an exit poll.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6446050/Tories-set-for-win-exit-poll-suggest.html
    Yep You Gov is a VI. Complete load of utter rubbish.
    Question might be needed about the value of yougovs online panel.....

    but who knows yet.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169

    Morley

    and

    Outwood

    That is all

    Yes Please.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676

    Intriguing choice of exit polls, both of them producing an awkward result without an obvious majority, though obviously would be better than expected for Cameron. I can confirm that there were a higher number than usual of expected Labour voters in my patch who declined to say how they were voting, which isn't usually a good sign. But I won't comment more till we see the result.

    Nick as per my post this morning, I do hope you do well albeit also that your result is the exception that proves the rule.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,980
    So, it looks like JackW was way too pessimistic, then.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    Remember the ICM Wisdom was Con 35, Lab 32
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518

    The postal votes will favour the Tories, so the BBC exit poll is overstating Labour. This looks like a disaster for Labour.

    No, I think they take it into account.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Good to see MARR back on it!
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited May 2015
    If YouGov have been wasting our collective time nightly for the last 5 years, as seems probable even on their own exit poll, I hope for their sake their exit poll does no turn out to be time-wasting crap in itself.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,573
    Very impressed with my BT Infinity connection - able to watch 5 channels at once via the Net.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    By the top of the hour we would have the first declaration.
    Wait till Nuneaton in about 2.5 hours.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    I did say that the stats I was getting in England showed swing to Labour just 1% and Thrasher said that too/. Jack W and Tory stats say so. But, exit poll is not the real vote. However, no way Labour will have more seats.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Danny565 said:

    Emily Maitlis projecting a big Labour rise in Sunderland, while a drop in top target North Warwickshire. It seems the "bias" in the electoral system has been totally reversed.

    That just says Labour have increased their vote in the places they least need it.

  • LD President says Clegg is very secure in Hallam

    Is he locked into a house on suicide watch?
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,178
    I'm still expecting Ed to be PM. I just don't buy the exit poll.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    I would expect posters such as roger and Tyson to front it out - as will sunil!

    Might not hear too much from roserees or mukesh!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    Polling in the future is going to have to be a lot more regionally based. Looking at England as just one entity is not going to work; doesn't work.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,976
    "Roll up that map (of the UK): it will not be wanted these ten years (from now)"
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Kezia Dugdale busy burying the Labour Party in Scotland on BBC Scotland.

    Saying Labour will let Tories in.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    I bet Marr doesn't get invited in by Cameron :-)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    My Phone-only ELBOW had the Tories ahead, but only by 0.47%!

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596428245328867328
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Intriguing choice of exit polls, both of them producing an awkward result without an obvious majority, though obviously would be better than expected for Cameron. I can confirm that there were a higher number than usual of expected Labour voters in my patch who declined to say how they were voting, which isn't usually a good sign. But I won't comment more till we see the result.

    Although we disagree on most to all things and I've given you a bit of stick recently, the best of luck to you.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    What do the statisticians here think of this exit poll? What degree of MoE can we expect on seat totals?
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    Intriguing choice of exit polls, both of them producing an awkward result without an obvious majority, though obviously would be better than expected for Cameron. I can confirm that there were a higher number than usual of expected Labour voters in my patch who declined to say how they were voting, which isn't usually a good sign. But I won't comment more till we see the result.

    No tic toc? Has your opponent conceded yet?
  • John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    edited May 2015
    Dair said:

    BEcause that will require an SNP vote in 2016. Obviously it will likely return a mandate for the Second Indyref.

    Why do you think that? There's been a big change in the pro and anti SNP vote shares between last September and now. Why is it "obviously" true that it's all going to stay static, or keep on moving in the same direction, between now and next year?

  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,892
    MikeL said:

    Remember the ICM Wisdom was Con 35, Lab 32

    Wouldn't this result be more like 38/30
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    ITV Cymru

    Welsh Labour sources tell me they’re confident of taking Cardiff North and Cardiff Central; Vale of Glamorgan still possible.

    While Labour sources say Vale of Glamorgan is still possible, Conservative sources say they’re confident of keeping it.

    Plaid Cymru sources will only say that Ynys Môn is ‘close.’ Also that UKIP has done well in West Wales but that Carmarthen E & D is safe.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Whichever poll is right, one thing is clear for Lib Dems. You play with the sharks, you get eaten !
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767
    pretty sure on those numbers 239+58 is less than 316.

    Cameron PM with the DUP+LD
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    Emily Maitlis projecting a big Labour rise in Sunderland, while a drop in top target North Warwickshire. It seems the "bias" in the electoral system has been totally reversed.

    That just says Labour have increased their vote in the places they least need it.

    Yeah, that's my point. The "bias" was always Labour's vote being distributed very efficiently, but that could've reversed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347

    What do the statisticians here think of this exit poll? What degree of MoE can we expect on seat totals?

    The Exit pollsters themselves say 20-25 seat margin of error.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Cameron still only 1.24 as next PM.

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    bonkers.

    I'm gobsmacked. But I believe the exit poll.

    Couldn't be worse for labour.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,777
    We all said it was a good election to lose. If The Tories end up nearer 290-295 as I expect it still aint an easy hand to play.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767
    Alberto Nardelli ‏@AlbertoNardelli 2 mins2 minutes ago

    YouGov is not an exit poll.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    I just don't believe that exit poll. It is too good to be true. But there is no doubt it is massively better than I feared. I am delighted to be so wrong.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: Labour insider. "It's over...it's over."
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Nice to hear Marr say how cold it is in Oxfordshire - it's 89 here....not crowing even a little bit :)
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    If the tories are 300+ then this afternoons thread will be printed off and on my wall for future laughter and re quoting on here.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sunderland in 10 minutes...

    gloomy Labour faces
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    I'm still expecting Ed to be PM. I just don't buy the exit poll.

    I'm not. I have a feeling that poll's correct. We'll see later on, but PB Tories (if they wanted a Con minority) can celebrate. Congrats.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767
    Andrew said:

    Cameron still only 1.24 as next PM.

    'only'
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    A gain in seats (and presumably votes) is completely unprecedented - in times of economic hardship or not.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,678
    Where is the EdStone at the moment?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767
    Guys just think.... Dan Hodges might have been right....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,751
    Yougov not an exit poll aparently, just recontacts to confirm responses of last normal poll.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Ave_it said:

    I would expect posters such as roger and Tyson to front it out - as will sunil!

    Might not hear too much from roserees or mukesh!

    The police are talking Rose down from the Clifton Suspension bridge.

  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    AndyJS said:

    If it's still true that Labour have done well in London, they must have done horrendously in the rest of England outside the capital.

    My spiel about London being Labour and Labour London could actually be spot-on. Party on death row.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    YouGov is NOT an exit poll.

    It's a recontact.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,122
    Did I just hear Kellner questioning the Exit Poll? His and YouGov's reputation could be in tatters in a few hours time.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    *If* the pollsters are this wrong, I can see a big market for new ways of conducting such research.

    ... just for those new systems to be proved wrong at the next election. ;-)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Where is the EdStone at the moment?

    In Miliband's garden in Doncaster?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Turnout can't be THAT high if Sunderland South is already almost finished.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    Boring question, but where is the list of predictions? I can't remember what mine was....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676
    surbiton said:

    Whichever poll is right, one thing is clear for Lib Dems. You play with the sharks, you get eaten !

    It's absurd. The LibDems have played a blinder. From NOTA to party of Govt. Junior partner in a coalition. And Nick has never been forgiven for it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Where is the EdStone at the moment?

    @TimGatt: New #Edstone #SunNation http://t.co/V9SAb668QO
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    2010 result — Houghton & Sunderland South:

    Lab 19137 (50.3%)
    Con 8147 (21.4%)
    LD 5292 (13.9%)
    Ind 2462 (6.5%)
    BNP 1961 (5.2%)
    UKIP 1022 (2.7%)

    Turnout: 55.3%

    Candidates this time:

    Con: Stewart Hay
    Lab: Bridget Phillipson
    LD: Jim Murray
    UKIP: Richard Elvin
    Greens: Alan Robinson
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Ishmael_X said:

    If YouGov have been wasting our collective time nightly for the last 5 years, as seems probable even on their own exit poll, I hope for their sake their exit poll does no turn out to be time-wasting crap in itself.

    Yougov has not covered itself in glory. But has any pollster?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I wonder what tim saying on twitter ;)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Chameleon said:

    A gain in seats (and presumably votes) is completely unprecedented - in times of economic hardship or not.

    The Tories were down slightly in all the seats that the BBC projected just before on the basis of their exit poll, I think. It's just Labour are also down.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @WikiGuido: Tories pushing Ed Balls out rumour. Surely not...
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    DavidL said:

    I just don't believe that exit poll. It is too good to be true. But there is no doubt it is massively better than I feared. I am delighted to be so wrong.

    Happy with 58?

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    Shy Tories would explain the difference between YouGov and BBC/ITV/Sky exit
This discussion has been closed.