I bought three bottles of cava plonk to dull the dog's breakfast I expected.
I've just popped the first cork for entirely different reasons. If the exit poll is nonsense, I'm going to anesthetise my sunburn and enjoy the fun until it's debunked.
I'm going to faint with joy if this poll is like '92 as well as Cable and Balls out on their arses.
Me too. I've been morose all day and didn't bring in any alcohol. Standing to make a lot of money. I bet heavily on LD's under 20 MPs as well as elsewhere.
Emily Maitlis projecting a big Labour rise in Sunderland, while a drop in top target North Warwickshire. It seems the "bias" in the electoral system has been totally reversed.
Harma trotting out the same line Labour tried in 1992 when exit poll came out that a lost majority automatically means lost right to rule despite being largest party.
(Oh, hello btw from long time lurker!)
welcome and well exactly.
Our ruling parties have always had a 35%-ish share of the electorate. If now Lab are saying that for every election it is the 65% opposition that should have been, um, the ruling party, then they have lost all shame.
Intriguing choice of exit polls, both of them producing an awkward result without an obvious majority, though obviously would be better than expected for Cameron. I can confirm that there were a higher number than usual of expected Labour voters in my patch who declined to say how they were voting, which isn't usually a good sign. But I won't comment more till we see the result.
I'm sitting here watching the odds of a Tory absolute majority shorten at Betfair. They're 9.4 now. They were something like 17 a few hours ago. Oops - already down to 9 as I speak.
How about pundits stop so slavishly following pollsters next time?
Perhaps the two polls are not that far apart, the BBC/ITV/Sky poll depends on the LDs doing very badly against the tories and the SNP sweeping the board, if either of those thing is just slightly wrong then it would make yougov more accurate. I am very dubious they have got scotland right, I do think the LDs have done badly in the south west but this seems to far out.
Also note UKIP tweets seeming very down on Thurrock
I bought three bottles of cava plonk to dull the dog's breakfast I expected.
I've just popped the first cork for entirely different reasons. If the exit poll is nonsense, I'm going to anesthetise my sunburn and enjoy the fun until it's debunked.
I'm going to faint with joy if this poll is like '92 as well as Cable and Balls out on their arses.
You deserve it! I'm regretting only having a dribble of Islay malt in the house. May have to go down to the bar nearest the count!
Incidentally, down here I find most tellers understand local politics much better than I do, but are less well versed in the national picture. PB is like the a degree level History course - a great overview for trends, less useful for specifics.
If SNP do get 58 seats, how can there not be another SIndy Referendum?
BEcause that will require an SNP vote in 2016. Obviously it will likely return a mandate for the Second Indyref. But this election has nothing to do with another Indyref.
It might justify one on the 2016 Manifesto, of course.
I think there are a lot of very close seats, so my guess is that the Conservatives will end up very near to JackW, and that the LibDems will end up in the mid teens.
Intriguing choice of exit polls, both of them producing an awkward result without an obvious majority, though obviously would be better than expected for Cameron. I can confirm that there were a higher number than usual of expected Labour voters in my patch who declined to say how they were voting, which isn't usually a good sign. But I won't comment more till we see the result.
Nick as per my post this morning, I do hope you do well albeit also that your result is the exception that proves the rule.
If YouGov have been wasting our collective time nightly for the last 5 years, as seems probable even on their own exit poll, I hope for their sake their exit poll does no turn out to be time-wasting crap in itself.
I did say that the stats I was getting in England showed swing to Labour just 1% and Thrasher said that too/. Jack W and Tory stats say so. But, exit poll is not the real vote. However, no way Labour will have more seats.
Emily Maitlis projecting a big Labour rise in Sunderland, while a drop in top target North Warwickshire. It seems the "bias" in the electoral system has been totally reversed.
That just says Labour have increased their vote in the places they least need it.
Intriguing choice of exit polls, both of them producing an awkward result without an obvious majority, though obviously would be better than expected for Cameron. I can confirm that there were a higher number than usual of expected Labour voters in my patch who declined to say how they were voting, which isn't usually a good sign. But I won't comment more till we see the result.
Although we disagree on most to all things and I've given you a bit of stick recently, the best of luck to you.
Intriguing choice of exit polls, both of them producing an awkward result without an obvious majority, though obviously would be better than expected for Cameron. I can confirm that there were a higher number than usual of expected Labour voters in my patch who declined to say how they were voting, which isn't usually a good sign. But I won't comment more till we see the result.
BEcause that will require an SNP vote in 2016. Obviously it will likely return a mandate for the Second Indyref.
Why do you think that? There's been a big change in the pro and anti SNP vote shares between last September and now. Why is it "obviously" true that it's all going to stay static, or keep on moving in the same direction, between now and next year?
Emily Maitlis projecting a big Labour rise in Sunderland, while a drop in top target North Warwickshire. It seems the "bias" in the electoral system has been totally reversed.
That just says Labour have increased their vote in the places they least need it.
Yeah, that's my point. The "bias" was always Labour's vote being distributed very efficiently, but that could've reversed.
I just don't believe that exit poll. It is too good to be true. But there is no doubt it is massively better than I feared. I am delighted to be so wrong.
If YouGov have been wasting our collective time nightly for the last 5 years, as seems probable even on their own exit poll, I hope for their sake their exit poll does no turn out to be time-wasting crap in itself.
Yougov has not covered itself in glory. But has any pollster?
A gain in seats (and presumably votes) is completely unprecedented - in times of economic hardship or not.
The Tories were down slightly in all the seats that the BBC projected just before on the basis of their exit poll, I think. It's just Labour are also down.
I just don't believe that exit poll. It is too good to be true. But there is no doubt it is massively better than I feared. I am delighted to be so wrong.
Comments
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6446050/Tories-set-for-win-exit-poll-suggest.html
She will be in tears if the exit polls are correct.
Our ruling parties have always had a 35%-ish share of the electorate. If now Lab are saying that for every election it is the 65% opposition that should have been, um, the ruling party, then they have lost all shame.
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 4 mins4 minutes ago
Final ELBOW (week-ending 7th May) Lab 33.6 (-0.3), Con 33.3 (-0.5), UKIP 13.2 (+0.3), LD 9.0 (+0.5), Grn 4.8 (-0.2)
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596426141847711745
How about pundits stop so slavishly following pollsters next time?
Basically yes it is like 1992.
Also note UKIP tweets seeming very down on Thurrock
Incidentally, down here I find most tellers understand local politics much better than I do, but are less well versed in the national picture. PB is like the a degree level History course - a great overview for trends, less useful for specifics.
It might justify one on the 2016 Manifesto, of course.
Could it be that there is something wrong with your sample group?
The BBC Labour spinning is incredibly. If the Exit poll is correct there are all going to be in tears by the end of the night.
but who knows yet.
Wait till Nuneaton in about 2.5 hours.
Might not hear too much from roserees or mukesh!
Saying Labour will let Tories in.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596428245328867328
Welsh Labour sources tell me they’re confident of taking Cardiff North and Cardiff Central; Vale of Glamorgan still possible.
While Labour sources say Vale of Glamorgan is still possible, Conservative sources say they’re confident of keeping it.
Plaid Cymru sources will only say that Ynys Môn is ‘close.’ Also that UKIP has done well in West Wales but that Carmarthen E & D is safe.
Cameron PM with the DUP+LD
I'm gobsmacked. But I believe the exit poll.
Couldn't be worse for labour.
YouGov is not an exit poll.
gloomy Labour faces
It's a recontact.
... just for those new systems to be proved wrong at the next election. ;-)
Lab 19137 (50.3%)
Con 8147 (21.4%)
LD 5292 (13.9%)
Ind 2462 (6.5%)
BNP 1961 (5.2%)
UKIP 1022 (2.7%)
Turnout: 55.3%
Candidates this time:
Con: Stewart Hay
Lab: Bridget Phillipson
LD: Jim Murray
UKIP: Richard Elvin
Greens: Alan Robinson