If the figures are right, some sitting Lab MPs could lose seat to Con. As the number of Lab gains from Con is limited, at the margins there will be some movements against the average swing
As someone who voted Labour, I believe the exit poll, they are usually pretty accurate. Well done to those who continued to believe it might be 1992 all over again, looks like it is. Didn't think the polls could be that wrong again. At least I can now go to bed instead of sitting up all night and am retiring abroad in 4 months so every cloud has a silver lining and at least there will be some stability!
It looks like it'll be a Con minority government then, with DUP and UKIP support. If the LDs get 10 it looks like Clegg may not even survive as an MP, let alone a leader, alone lead his party into another coalition.
It looks like it'll be a Con minority government then, with DUP and UKIP support. If the LDs get 10 it looks like Clegg may not even survive as an MP, let alone a leader, alone lead his party into another coalition.
The problem with a Conservative minority is that none of the other parties agree with Tory policies apart from DUP maybe.
A large slice of the variation here seems to be LD-Tory marginals.
Very true. The SW of London and the SW of England could make or break the future of the Libdems. If they manage to hold most then they should be ok. If they end up on 10 or similar could be a much changed party in the next 6 months.
Harriet Harman is a complete idiot. There's no way Labour can govern on these figures. Personally, I think Cameron will be seriously disappointed at those LDs figure. It pretty much (if true) ruins his plans for another coalition.
Looks like LAB have lost 40 to SNP, gained about 15 from LD and net 5 from CON
Its possible Nick is the only LAB gain in England outside London!! Probably not tho as I suspect its 10 LAB gain 5 LAB loss England - losses inc Southampton Test, Halifax and possibly Morley & Outwood!
Harma trotting out the same line Labour tried in 1992 when exit poll came out that a lost majority automatically means lost right to rule despite being largest party.
Harma trotting out the same line Labour tried in 1992 when exit poll came out that a lost majority automatically means lost right to rule despite being largest party.
I bought three bottles of cava plonk to dull the dog's breakfast I expected.
I've just popped the first cork for entirely different reasons. If the exit poll is nonsense, I'm going to anesthetise my sunburn and enjoy the fun until it's debunked.
Well, if the exit is correct then it will vindicate what I've been saying since 2010 - political polling as a concept is now utterly broken backed. Respondents are using them to reinforce the perceived media narrative (Ed's played a blinder etc.) rather than express voting intention.
It looks like it'll be a Con minority government then, with DUP and UKIP support. If the LDs get 10 it looks like Clegg may not even survive as an MP, let alone a leader, alone lead his party into another coalition.
The problem with a Conservative minority is that none of the other parties agree with Tory policies apart from DUP maybe.
On the caveat the exit poll is spot on, with 8 DUP and 2 UKIP does that not create a right-wing majority?
There is the shocking chance an EU referendum bill could pass.
It looks like it'll be a Con minority government then, with DUP and UKIP support. If the LDs get 10 it looks like Clegg may not even survive as an MP, let alone a leader, alone lead his party into another coalition.
The problem with a Conservative minority is that none of the other parties agree with Tory policies apart from DUP maybe.
So 316 + 8 = 324 MPs. Just a majority when Sinn Fein don't take their seats. Personally, I don't think a Con minority govt is great for the Tories. It's something I thought was possible, but not on these figures.
Well, if the exit is correct then it will vindicate what I've been saying since 2010 - political polling as a concept is now utterly broken backed. Respondents are using them to reinforce the perceived media narrative (Ed's played a blinder etc.) rather than express voting intention.
Me too. I suggested both online and phone polling were deeply deeply flawed. The online VI are an utter waste of space.
Comments
I presume it's tens of thousands?
Typical aristo.
It is run by Ipsos-Mori for BBC, ITV, Sky.
Innocent face.
So Harman would want a coalition of the losers?
Careers on the line?
Cannot believe the Beeb's one frankly
Big if, though. I still cannot see it. If he didn't lose in 2010 then he won't lose it in 2015.
Lab had an excellent campaign.
Which seat?
If there was any doubt about the result Harman has ended it.
If one ofn the Tories scrapes in they could be the opposition.
She looks poleaxed and uber calm in that I'm In Shock way
Its possible Nick is the only LAB gain in England outside London!! Probably not tho as I suspect its 10 LAB gain 5 LAB loss England - losses inc Southampton Test, Halifax and possibly Morley & Outwood!
The final moment of torture for us Tories in GE2015.
(Oh, hello btw from long time lurker!)
spin Con 302.5, Lab 253.5, LD 18
sprx Con 303.5, Lab 252.5, LD 16
lg Con 301.5, Lab 254.5, LD 14
Labour with the heaviest suicide note in history.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NefM2gVo9mw
MichaelWhite @MichaelWhite 34 secs35 seconds ago
Harriet Harman also cautious on BBC, but her body language does not look optimistic
Exit?
Sample size?
Methodology?
I've just popped the first cork for entirely different reasons. If the exit poll is nonsense, I'm going to anesthetise my sunburn and enjoy the fun until it's debunked.
But lets see. Tories could get over the line. Thats happened before. Or they could dip under 300.
There is the shocking chance an EU referendum bill could pass.
If SNP do get 58 seats, how can there not be another SIndy Referendum?