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  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TimGatt: So who will be the first Labour politician to blame Russell Brand for their apparent shocking performance? I reckon Mandelson #SunNation
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    If the figures are right, some sitting Lab MPs could lose seat to Con. As the number of Lab gains from Con is limited, at the margins there will be some movements against the average swing
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Does anyone know how big the exit poll is/are?

    I presume it's tens of thousands?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    As someone who voted Labour, I believe the exit poll, they are usually pretty accurate. Well done to those who continued to believe it might be 1992 all over again, looks like it is. Didn't think the polls could be that wrong again. At least I can now go to bed instead of sitting up all night and am retiring abroad in 4 months so every cloud has a silver lining and at least there will be some stability!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064

    Laura Pitel ‏@laurapitel 5 mins5 minutes ago

    Ukip source says party organisers in Ed Balls's seat (Morley and Outwood) are convinced the Tories are going to take it.

    oh please please please please......

    Well I did tip it!
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,096
    Tonight was always going to be a bit exciting but this ... is the phrase "ups the stakes"?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Will the Lib Dems want to go back with the Tories after losing 49 seats last time?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Are these BBC seat numbers based on constituency polls or swing from the popular vote?

    Radio4 said it was 22,000 voter interviews in about 180 constituencies
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    awwww look at hatties face....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    oh. Harriet looks very stiff upper-lipped.

    Typical aristo.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    edited May 2015
    Tim_B said:

    What's the history of these beeb exit polls? Are they typically good indicators?

    If 1992 is anything to go by the Cons may do even better.

    It is run by Ipsos-Mori for BBC, ITV, Sky.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    awwww look at hatties face....

    I almost want to change channel....
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    LOL Harman - not exactly denying it! :lol::lol::lol:
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Hello Harriet. You look just like you've eaten a shit sandwich. HAHAHAHA!!!
  • glwglw Posts: 9,956
    GIN1138 said:

    Will the UK opinion polling industry still be alive at 5am?

    Well some of them are surely up the creek.
  • Laura Pitel ‏@laurapitel 5 mins5 minutes ago

    Ukip source says party organisers in Ed Balls's seat (Morley and Outwood) are convinced the Tories are going to take it.

    oh please please please please......

    Oh deep joy
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    It looks like it'll be a Con minority government then, with DUP and UKIP support. If the LDs get 10 it looks like Clegg may not even survive as an MP, let alone a leader, alone lead his party into another coalition.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    That'd make my decade.

    Laura Pitel ‏@laurapitel 5 mins5 minutes ago

    Ukip source says party organisers in Ed Balls's seat (Morley and Outwood) are convinced the Tories are going to take it.

    oh please please please please......

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Super weak spinning by Hattie......!!!!!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    Artist said:

    Will the Lib Dems want to go back with the Tories after losing 49 seats last time?

    I don't think there would be any pro-coalition LD MPs left, even Clegg would probably lose his seat on this.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533

    Laura Pitel ‏@laurapitel 5 mins5 minutes ago

    Ukip source says party organisers in Ed Balls's seat (Morley and Outwood) are convinced the Tories are going to take it.

    oh please please please please......

    He wasn't far off going last time. He certainly isn't popular in that neck of the woods.
  • dobbindobbin Posts: 28
    Form an orderly Q to kiss PBs most famous bottom. Compouter can go first!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Another damned long wait for the first results. It's a whisky for me and then a filter coffee.
  • Well surely the next thread on PB should be one about why the Conservatives will not gain seats at this election.
    Innocent face.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Split the difference and the Tories are still on 300-odd. Result for them.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Sturgeon and Hosie say no to 58
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    So Harman would want a coalition of the losers?

  • EICALAF
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Well one of these pollsters is wrong ( if not both!).

    Careers on the line?

    Cannot believe the Beeb's one frankly
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Cracking down on elctoral fraud has really delivered results.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Even if ttories slip a bit, if they can stay above 300 its a victory for Cameron
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    I'm going to faint with joy if this poll is like '92 as well as Cable and Balls out on their arses.
  • ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 165
    GOTV all day in Milton Keynes. Looks like 2 Con holds to me. Our people git out.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    I wonder when the BBC will wake up to the DUP?! The tories' top bedfellows would be their unionist counterparts.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    MaxPB said:

    Laura Pitel ‏@laurapitel 5 mins5 minutes ago

    Ukip source says party organisers in Ed Balls's seat (Morley and Outwood) are convinced the Tories are going to take it.

    oh please please please please......

    Well I did tip it!
    If that was to happen then I would be absolutely ecstatic.

    Big if, though. I still cannot see it. If he didn't lose in 2010 then he won't lose it in 2015.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    S'ok.

    Lab had an excellent campaign.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited May 2015

    It looks like it'll be a Con minority government then, with DUP and UKIP support. If the LDs get 10 it looks like Clegg may not even survive as an MP, let alone a leader, alone lead his party into another coalition.

    The problem with a Conservative minority is that none of the other parties agree with Tory policies apart from DUP maybe.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Has anyone noticed that the Greens are set to gain a seat in the exit poll?
    Which seat?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    So farewell then Ed. You were crap.

    If there was any doubt about the result Harman has ended it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    SLABs ability to wipe itself out is just amazing.

    If one ofn the Tories scrapes in they could be the opposition.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Y0kel said:

    A large slice of the variation here seems to be LD-Tory marginals.

    Very true. The SW of London and the SW of England could make or break the future of the Libdems. If they manage to hold most then they should be ok. If they end up on 10 or similar could be a much changed party in the next 6 months.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Balls losing his seat would be the Portillo moment.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    If Balls's seat really is in danger then the exit poll might be too pessimistic for the Tories.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I was thinking she's had a death in the family.

    She looks poleaxed and uber calm in that I'm In Shock way
    Anorak said:

    Hello Harriet. You look just like you've eaten a shit sandwich. HAHAHAHA!!!

  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Ave_it said:

    CON gain Sunderland and Houghton?

    Ye cannit Mackem
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited May 2015
    Were you up for Balls?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    hahaha Ed already at risk of if he'll have to resign. not the questions labour want
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Harriet Harman is a complete idiot. There's no way Labour can govern on these figures. Personally, I think Cameron will be seriously disappointed at those LDs figure. It pretty much (if true) ruins his plans for another coalition.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064

    So farewell then Ed. You were crap.

    If there was any doubt about the result Harman has ended it.

    Yes, she did didn't she.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,004
    Alistair said:

    Dair said:

    According to the exit polls the last seat in Scotland is LABOUR not Lib Dem.

    Wowzer if true
    Tories save Murphy??? That would be cruel beyongd belief!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Looks like LAB have lost 40 to SNP, gained about 15 from LD and net 5 from CON

    Its possible Nick is the only LAB gain in England outside London!! Probably not tho as I suspect its 10 LAB gain 5 LAB loss England - losses inc Southampton Test, Halifax and possibly Morley & Outwood! :lol:

  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Exit poll is a monumental screw up.

    The final moment of torture for us Tories in GE2015.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Harma trotting out the same line Labour tried in 1992 when exit poll came out that a lost majority automatically means lost right to rule despite being largest party.

    (Oh, hello btw from long time lurker!)
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Oops, posted in old thread. Spreads suspicious.....

    spin Con 302.5, Lab 253.5, LD 18
    sprx Con 303.5, Lab 252.5, LD 16
    lg Con 301.5, Lab 254.5, LD 14
  • Scott_P said:

    @TimGatt: So who will be the first Labour politician to blame Russell Brand for their apparent shocking performance? I reckon Mandelson #SunNation

    No. This will be re-named as the TOMBSTONE election.
    Labour with the heaviest suicide note in history.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    Exit poll is a monumental screw up.

    The final moment of torture for us Tories in GE2015.

    That would indeed be terrible :D
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Dimblebore is shelled shocked...he just talked about a Labour victory.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    PB's collective reaction to the exit poll.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NefM2gVo9mw
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Super weak spinning by Hattie......!!!!!

    She was so weak she must have seen internal polling.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Conservative minority with DUP support, most obvious outcome
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    Harma trotting out the same line Labour tried in 1992 when exit poll came out that a lost majority automatically means lost right to rule despite being largest party.

    (Oh, hello btw from long time lurker!)

    Welcome :)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780


    MichaelWhite ‏@MichaelWhite 34 secs35 seconds ago

    Harriet Harman also cautious on BBC, but her body language does not look optimistic
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Can someone clarify the YouGov poll?

    Exit?

    Sample size?

    Methodology?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    David Miliband was the better option for Labour. From the moment Ed was elected instead I feared Labour would go backwards at this election.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I bought three bottles of cava plonk to dull the dog's breakfast I expected.

    I've just popped the first cork for entirely different reasons. If the exit poll is nonsense, I'm going to anesthetise my sunburn and enjoy the fun until it's debunked.
    Chameleon said:

    I'm going to faint with joy if this poll is like '92 as well as Cable and Balls out on their arses.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    What the hell was Harman wittering on about?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,714
    Well, if the exit is correct then it will vindicate what I've been saying since 2010 - political polling as a concept is now utterly broken backed. Respondents are using them to reinforce the perceived media narrative (Ed's played a blinder etc.) rather than express voting intention.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    rcs1000 said:

    Conservative minority with DUP support, most obvious outcome

    Yep. They're both unionist parties: match made in heaven.

    But lets see. Tories could get over the line. Thats happened before. Or they could dip under 300.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    Artist said:

    It looks like it'll be a Con minority government then, with DUP and UKIP support. If the LDs get 10 it looks like Clegg may not even survive as an MP, let alone a leader, alone lead his party into another coalition.

    The problem with a Conservative minority is that none of the other parties agree with Tory policies apart from DUP maybe.
    On the caveat the exit poll is spot on, with 8 DUP and 2 UKIP does that not create a right-wing majority?

    There is the shocking chance an EU referendum bill could pass.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Do we have a share? 37-29???
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JonBergdahl: **FOR SALE** Granite stone. Some minor cosmetic damage. One careful owner. Best offer accepted #EdStone #GE2015 http://t.co/tDAESSOFy3
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    I suppose this might be the PB Tory's sheffield rally.... :D
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    MikeL said:

    Can someone clarify the YouGov poll?

    Exit?

    Sample size?

    Methodology?

    All down thread.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Artist said:

    It looks like it'll be a Con minority government then, with DUP and UKIP support. If the LDs get 10 it looks like Clegg may not even survive as an MP, let alone a leader, alone lead his party into another coalition.

    The problem with a Conservative minority is that none of the other parties agree with Tory policies apart from DUP maybe.
    So 316 + 8 = 324 MPs. Just a majority when Sinn Fein don't take their seats. Personally, I don't think a Con minority govt is great for the Tories. It's something I thought was possible, but not on these figures.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    This could be the night of the PBtories......
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    £ up 2c against $
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Where are the PB Labour posters?
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    YES
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766

    Well, if the exit is correct then it will vindicate what I've been saying since 2010 - political polling as a concept is now utterly broken backed. Respondents are using them to reinforce the perceived media narrative (Ed's played a blinder etc.) rather than express voting intention.

    Me too. I suggested both online and phone polling were deeply deeply flawed. The online VI are an utter waste of space.
  • Tony_MTony_M Posts: 70
    edited May 2015
    Edit: The Sage Crosby beat me to it
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    Can Labour persuade Nicola to join them? Break the British transfer record. She's got to be worth more than Gareth Bale
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Woman in red dress has a face as if someone is ramming half a raw onion up her rectum
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    This is massive. Little to no swing, if '92 is anything to go by then we could be Con majority. Paging IOS.
    RobD said:

    Exit poll is a monumental screw up.

    The final moment of torture for us Tories in GE2015.

    That would indeed be terrible :D
    Pls no.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    LD 2% Hendon???? LOL
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Split the difference in the exit polls: Tories in the high 290s
  • pinkrosepinkrose Posts: 189
    If the Lib Dems get 10 seats, surely they CANNOT prop up the Tories?????
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Blimey
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Labour struggling to pick up the first target on their list?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    jeeezz.... labour really really struggling to pick up even easy seats on those exit polls
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    Emily Maitlis looks like she is going to cry.....

    If SNP do get 58 seats, how can there not be another SIndy Referendum?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    If the poll is accurate Balls has about a 29% chance of losing.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    Where on earth is Labour picking up seats to offset Scotland on this BBC exit poll? Not Warwicks North, not Cardiff North. Only LD seats?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Roger said:

    Who did the first exit poll?

    GfK. Pukka market research.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,033
    Does match the supposed labour mood music though
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    I hope you all got on my Birmingham Northfield bet.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    SNP hopeful in Rutherglen 21k lab maj.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    any indication of turnout?
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    RodCrosby said:

    Morley

    and

    Outwood

    That is all

    Some Labour seats must be on the line tonight...
    Hopefully the odious Chris Williamson in Derby North will be gone, that is my no1 wish.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Hmmm labour pikcing up votes in places it doesn't matter is that it?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Where's Populus??????
This discussion has been closed.