There is a lot of cigar smoke coming out from DUP headquarters right now....
Ok lets say that this does over egg the Conservative seats a bit, a still sizeable gap to Labour does make it harder to go for the legitimate right to govern for Labour.
But we will see. Whilst I can understand why the polls were wrong this does seem to the very highest end of Conservative expectations.
I'd like to take this opportunity to resubmit the prediction I made yesterday on this forum:
I was predicting a Labour minority government but I've changed my mind in the last few days and think the election will result in a Conservative minority government. My reasoning is that opinion polls indicate the voters trust them more with the economy and prefer Cameron to Miliband. Another factor is that UKIP voters overwhelmingly indicate that they'd prefer to see a Conservative government and I expect many of them to vote tactically in the marginals. (They will still have the chance of voting for UKIP in the local elections.)
Seats are more difficult to predict. I think Labour will be completely wiped out in Scotland and will struggle to get beyond 260 seats.
The SNP will take all seats in Scotland save Shetland and Orkney which will go down to the wire.
The Liberal Democrats will be down to less than 20 seats and in no mood to join another coalition.
The amazing thing is, even on the basis of the bombshell exit poll, Labour would still gain about 20 seats from the Tories. That shows the calamity of Scotland and, apparently, how beneficial to the Tories the LibDem collapse was.
TUD Not at all, Cameron has made clear he would implement the Smith Commission Plans and Quebec nationalists won over 50 seats in the 1993 Canadian general election and Quebec still remains in Canada. Sturgeon has made clear she would only call a referendum in the short term if Brexit and Scotland votes In
1. SNP have stormed through 2. Collapse of LD's. Across the board regardless of incumbency 3. Crucial part is that in E&W Labour have not really made inroads into the Cons vote share and not destined to make many seats: just a handful. 1% swing from Con to Lab in E&W
Labour over-estimated in polls and Cons under-estimated.
If I were John Curtice, Stephen Fisher et al I would be very nervous, they might be right but unless populus backs them up every pollster and all the parties think they are wrong. It will be a very embarrassing episode for someone
Comments
I had 302!!!
Somebody is going to look like a right tw@t come when the morning comes.
End of the Union pier show if the exit poll is right.
Also, it would blast out of the water any SLab narrative that voting SNP let the Tories in.
This is 1992 all over again.
Farron, Laws, Lamb...?
Actually feel sorry for them. just...wow
Ok lets say that this does over egg the Conservative seats a bit, a still sizeable gap to Labour does make it harder to go for the legitimate right to govern for Labour.
But we will see. Whilst I can understand why the polls were wrong this does seem to the very highest end of Conservative expectations.
If anybody would like to check my prediction PB competition from 10 days ago or so you will find somebody who got those 2 much closer....
No poll predicted the complete collapse of the LD in favour of the Tories for 5 years now.
But whilst we can please think of how Owen, polly and al are feeling right now.
It's taken me 10 minutes just to take it in, and think of something other than swearing about it.
Except the Kipper two...
I had 300 vs 255.
I am a hopeless forecaster.
(come on Harriet!!)
I was predicting a Labour minority government but I've changed my mind in the last few days and think the election will result in a Conservative minority government. My reasoning is that opinion polls indicate the voters trust them more with the economy and prefer Cameron to Miliband. Another factor is that UKIP voters overwhelmingly indicate that they'd prefer to see a Conservative government and I expect many of them to vote tactically in the marginals. (They will still have the chance of voting for UKIP in the local elections.)
Seats are more difficult to predict. I think Labour will be completely wiped out in Scotland and will struggle to get beyond 260 seats.
The SNP will take all seats in Scotland save Shetland and Orkney which will go down to the wire.
The Liberal Democrats will be down to less than 20 seats and in no mood to join another coalition.
THE VALUE NOW IS ON CON MINORITY GOVERNMENT.
Please don't do an IOS, at least until we've got the first 300 results in.
and
Outwood
That is all
The SNP are predicted on 58 seats, so that leaves 1.
Insane.
GE- The English grannies won it for Dave
Number Cruncher is plainly a genius!
If he is wrong, he will go do in history as badly as the BBC exit poll.
Paddy says he will eat a hat if Lib Dem get anywhere near 10...will it be worth staying up for?
Danny Alex gone
Berwickshire gone
Cable gone?
Baker gone?
Kennedy gone?
I still think Lloyd has a chance - lots of voters seemed to name him today.
1. SNP have stormed through
2. Collapse of LD's. Across the board regardless of incumbency
3. Crucial part is that in E&W Labour have not really made inroads into the Cons vote share and not destined to make many seats: just a handful. 1% swing from Con to Lab in E&W
Labour over-estimated in polls and Cons under-estimated.
Oh, please, please, please...
So which Scottish seat won't be SNP?
Ukip source says party organisers in Ed Balls's seat (Morley and Outwood) are convinced the Tories are going to take it.
oh please please please please......