The BPC REALLY needs to get a grip and ban arsehattery by clients in misrepresenting polls as things which they aren't, right wing newspapers and self-important billionaires not excluded.
Just been chatting with a group of friends in Hamilton. Labour has got a kicking because they did not look after their voters. This was not a vote on independence. It was clear that the SNP won the ground war. At my polling station there were 2 SNP tellers and no Labour teller. Where were the Labour ground troops?
The voter turnout will be nowhere near the polls. However it is the direct switching of committed Labour voters that is killing them not the introduction of new voters.
Fun anecdote - one of my LD teller compatriots told me of a spoilt ballot paper that was accepted.
A voter had expertly drawn a cannabis leaf in the box and everyone agreed that this was fair.
Another voter was the wife of a returning officer who was having an affair - she wrote all about it in the little box at the same count. Hilariously awkward there.
If YouGov have been wasting our collective time nightly for the last 5 years, as seems probable even on their own exit poll, I hope for their sake their exit poll does no turn out to be time-wasting crap in itself.
Yougov has not covered itself in glory. But has any pollster?
No, but this latest stunt is - potentially - seriously adding insult to injury.
Well done to the Tories,Well done to Cameron and Osborne.Well done to Lynton Crosby.Well done to Dan Hodges.Well done to our own JackW,Rodcrosby,Southam and others for getting it right.
BEcause that will require an SNP vote in 2016. Obviously it will likely return a mandate for the Second Indyref.
Why do you think that? There's been a big change in the pro and anti SNP vote shares between last September and now. Why is it "obviously" true that it's all going to stay static, or keep on moving in the same direction, between now and next year?
Dair will answer for himself, but don't forget the completely different viting system in Hoyrood allows the Greens and SSP, and the new truly independent Scottish Labour Party (which I assume Mr Murphy will now be busy founding, his chums having secured the URL some months ago) to weigh in and help achieve a pro-indy majority. And we have yet to see what happens in Westminster. It's not just the SNP who drive the voting.
Well done to the Tories,Well done to Cameron and Osborne.Well done to Lynton Crosby.Well done to Dan Hodges.Well done to our own JackW,Rodcrosby,Southam and others for getting it right.
Now off to the pub to drown my sorrows...
Hello mukesh - I take back my earlier comment - well done for fronting it out!
@JohnRentoul: Not only was there no late swing, I don't think public opinion changed much since the trade unions elected wrong candidate five years ago.
@DPJHodges: Tories quietly confident they've won South Thanet.
If Farage doesn't win South Thanet it'll be hilarious. Strangely I'm not feeling as sad I thought I'd be, and am looking forward to seeing what happens.
1992 didn't surprise me - this one does (assuming that the exit poll is correct). Either lots of people were misleading the pollsters,or the regional swings are very different from each other.
Intriguing choice of exit polls, both of them producing an awkward result without an obvious majority, though obviously would be better than expected for Cameron. I can confirm that there were a higher number than usual of expected Labour voters in my patch who declined to say how they were voting, which isn't usually a good sign. But I won't comment more till we see the result.
Can't remember whether it was Neil or Glynis Kinnock talking about the last hours coming into the '92 vote saying they'd noticed something similar.
Please God, that would be an eight out of ten, Cooper nine out of ten, Balls ten out of ten, reckless eleven out of ten.
But if I really had to pick a result it would be Cooper and Balls signing on.
Could you imagine Ed and Harriet negotiating a rainbow coalition 80 seats behind the Tories and with Dougie, Jim Murphy and Ed Balls all out of parliament. That would be mega lol.
I just don't believe that exit poll. It is too good to be true. But there is no doubt it is massively better than I feared. I am delighted to be so wrong.
Happy with 58?
No. Gutted. Presumably Carmichael is the survivor.
Fun anecdote - one of my LD teller compatriots told me of a spoilt ballot paper that was accepted.
A voter had expertly drawn a cannabis leaf in the box and everyone agreed that this was fair.
Another voter was the wife of a returning officer who was having an affair - she wrote all about it in the little box at the same count. Hilariously awkward there.
Evening Plato - Keep the 'teller' anecdotes comming, they're hilarious.
I just don't believe that exit poll. It is too good to be true. But there is no doubt it is massively better than I feared. I am delighted to be so wrong.
Happy with 58?
No. Gutted. Presumably Carmichael is the survivor.
It's a Labourite according to Exit Poll.
I might chuckle if it is Anne McLaughlin not that I dislike her but that she is such an inveterate loser.
1992 didn't surprise me - this one does (assuming that the exit poll is correct). Either lots of people were misleading the pollsters,or the regional swings are very different from each other.
No. It's because the pollsters' methodology is awful and outdated. There's no wriggle room. Look it's so simple:
online panels self-select and are totally unrepresentative and very few people use a landline
Could Ed Balls really be in trouble? Was the source accurate?
Probably best for Labour if he is. It's time for a very serious rethink.
I am not sure the exit poll is 100% accurate, but the Tories are clearly going to be well ahead.
But Balls is the one of a very very few Labour front benchers who really do know what they are talking about when it comes to economics / business. He has just had to go along with a lot of the anti-business nonsense that Ed has been spouting, while he and Chukka have been running around telling businessmen no no it won't be like that.
Have they released the shares underpinning that Exit poll?
No, they never do.
Any reason?
If you just ask people how they voted as they come out of the polling booth, you don't collect the data to balance the sample. They rely on sampling in key, mostly marginal, constituencies. So just as a normal VI poll doesn't give seats to any degree of accuracy, an exit poll can't do percentage VI to any degree of accuracy.
I'm shocked but this is truly a fantastic result for the country. A disastrous result for Ed Miliband and the polling companies. This is gonna be a helluva a night as the results come in. I'm definitely going to stay up all night drinking this in.
Well done everyone who got out the blue vote today!
@janemerrick23: People who might be considering resigning tonight: Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband, Nigel Farage, every polling chief, Sunderland counting people
Well done to the Tories,Well done to Cameron and Osborne.Well done to Lynton Crosby.Well done to Dan Hodges.Well done to our own JackW,Rodcrosby,Southam and others for getting it right.
Comments
The BPC REALLY needs to get a grip and ban arsehattery by clients in misrepresenting polls as things which they aren't, right wing newspapers and self-important billionaires not excluded.
Having said that, since last post Cameron is down to 1.17 :-)
If people on their panel were lying about what they intended to do before the poll, chances are they will lie about what they did AFTER the poll.
#spanners
Don't believe this exit poll.
The voter turnout will be nowhere near the polls. However it is the direct switching of committed Labour voters that is killing them not the introduction of new voters.
In line with Ave it projections!!
Pollsters were weighting wrong.
People really don't comprehend how extensive electoral fraud became in this country under the last government.
It looks to be driven by tech gimmicks not getting information out.
Can't we have Jeremy Vine with his six gun shooting up the studio.
A voter had expertly drawn a cannabis leaf in the box and everyone agreed that this was fair.
Another voter was the wife of a returning officer who was having an affair - she wrote all about it in the little box at the same count. Hilariously awkward there.
Balls going would be the icing on the cake.
But if I really had to pick a result it would be Cooper and Balls signing on.
Con 306 .. Lab 252 .. LibDem 26.5 .. SNP 46.5
Very ARSE like ....
Now off to the pub to drown my sorrows...
Hmm...
ICM wisdom does indeed look good, gold standard.
:-)
I am not sure the exit poll is 100% accurate, but the Tories are clearly going to be well ahead.
I might chuckle if it is Anne McLaughlin not that I dislike her but that she is such an inveterate loser.
The pollsters will really need to go back to the drawing board after this.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596430863920996352
online panels self-select and are totally unrepresentative and
very few people use a landline
:-)
If the exit poll is wildly wrong then a lot of us will have egg on our faces . :-)
@SavidgeReads: This. http://t.co/DLlMX0piWL
Well done everyone who got out the blue vote today!
If labour are taking most LD seats why arethey on 239. And where do Tory gains come from?
If this continues, exit poll will look very wrong :-)
Exit poll overstating Conservatives relative to UKIP.