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Emily is fabulous0
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Clearly lots of very, very close seats.0
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Me too. I've been morose all day and didn't bring in any alcohol. Standing to make a lot of money. I bet heavily on LD's under 20 MPs as well as elsewhere.Plato said:I bought three bottles of cava plonk to dull the dog's breakfast I expected.
I've just popped the first cork for entirely different reasons. If the exit poll is nonsense, I'm going to anesthetise my sunburn and enjoy the fun until it's debunked.Chameleon said:I'm going to faint with joy if this poll is like '92 as well as Cable and Balls out on their arses.
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Emily Maitlis projecting a big Labour rise in Sunderland, while a drop in top target North Warwickshire. It seems the "bias" in the electoral system has been totally reversed.0
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It's a poll of 6.000 people, presumably from their panel. It's another poll not an exit poll.MikeL said:Can someone clarify the YouGov poll?
Exit?
Sample size?
Methodology?
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6446050/Tories-set-for-win-exit-poll-suggest.html0 -
Emily Maitlis in a bright red dress!
She will be in tears if the exit polls are correct.0 -
Over at LabourList they are still voiceless0
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welcome and well exactly.Gravitation said:Harma trotting out the same line Labour tried in 1992 when exit poll came out that a lost majority automatically means lost right to rule despite being largest party.
(Oh, hello btw from long time lurker!)
Our ruling parties have always had a 35%-ish share of the electorate. If now Lab are saying that for every election it is the 65% opposition that should have been, um, the ruling party, then they have lost all shame.0 -
Who could have thought that JackW and Rod were underestimating the Conservatives?!0
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Just for a bit of fun, assuming Exit Poll is right!
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 4 mins4 minutes ago
Final ELBOW (week-ending 7th May) Lab 33.6 (-0.3), Con 33.3 (-0.5), UKIP 13.2 (+0.3), LD 9.0 (+0.5), Grn 4.8 (-0.2)
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5964261418477117450 -
Intriguing choice of exit polls, both of them producing an awkward result without an obvious majority, though obviously would be better than expected for Cameron. I can confirm that there were a higher number than usual of expected Labour voters in my patch who declined to say how they were voting, which isn't usually a good sign. But I won't comment more till we see the result.0
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It makes sense now why EdM was campaigning in N Warks...Slackbladder said:
jeeezz.... labour really really struggling to pick up even easy seats on those exit polls
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How many Pollsters will commit sepuku after this election?0
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I'm sitting here watching the odds of a Tory absolute majority shorten at Betfair. They're 9.4 now. They were something like 17 a few hours ago. Oops - already down to 9 as I speak.
How about pundits stop so slavishly following pollsters next time?
Basically yes it is like 1992.0 -
Squirrel down.0
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Perhaps the two polls are not that far apart, the BBC/ITV/Sky poll depends on the LDs doing very badly against the tories and the SNP sweeping the board, if either of those thing is just slightly wrong then it would make yougov more accurate. I am very dubious they have got scotland right, I do think the LDs have done badly in the south west but this seems to far out.
Also note UKIP tweets seeming very down on Thurrock0 -
I'm a Lab sympathizer, I'm here. I think some others (Roger?) are posting too. Don't worryCasino_Royale said:Where are the PB Labour posters?
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The right to rule comes from commanding a majority in the house, not being the largest party.0
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LD President says Clegg is very secure in Hallam0
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Yep You Gov is a VI. Complete load of utter rubbish.Chris123 said:
It's a poll of 6.000 people, presumably from their panel. It's another poll not an exit poll.MikeL said:Can someone clarify the YouGov poll?
Exit?
Sample size?
Methodology?
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6446050/Tories-set-for-win-exit-poll-suggest.html0 -
Where is the Green gain predicted! Norwich South?0
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Ashdown saying 30 LD seats...0
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Uncle Vince must be toast on this, surely !0
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You deserve it! I'm regretting only having a dribble of Islay malt in the house. May have to go down to the bar nearest the count!Plato said:I bought three bottles of cava plonk to dull the dog's breakfast I expected.
I've just popped the first cork for entirely different reasons. If the exit poll is nonsense, I'm going to anesthetise my sunburn and enjoy the fun until it's debunked.Chameleon said:I'm going to faint with joy if this poll is like '92 as well as Cable and Balls out on their arses.
Incidentally, down here I find most tellers understand local politics much better than I do, but are less well versed in the national picture. PB is like the a degree level History course - a great overview for trends, less useful for specifics.
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BEcause that will require an SNP vote in 2016. Obviously it will likely return a mandate for the Second Indyref. But this election has nothing to do with another Indyref.FrancisUrquhart said:Emily Maitlis looks like she is going to cry.....
If SNP do get 58 seats, how can there not be another SIndy Referendum?
It might justify one on the 2016 Manifesto, of course.0 -
The postal votes will favour the Tories, so the BBC exit poll is overstating Labour. This looks like a disaster for Labour.0
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Did Jon Sopel just name the wrong Miliband?0
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Kellner saying well we REINTERVIEWED 6000 people today and we didn't see any movement, so I don't understand.
Could it be that there is something wrong with your sample group?
The BBC Labour spinning is incredibly. If the Exit poll is correct there are all going to be in tears by the end of the night.0 -
I'm surprised IOS isn't here to talk about Labour's ground game.Casino_Royale said:Where are the PB Labour posters?
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For everyones info, the exit poll predicted Lab 60, Con 20, UKIP 16 for the Sunderland seat to declare first.0
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Sunderland seats will show swing to LAB as LD collapses - don't take too much note of this!0
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If it's still true that Labour have done well in London, they must have done horrendously in the rest of England outside the capital.0
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Not like it's a self selecting group or anything...FrancisUrquhart said:Kellner saying well we REINTERVIEWED 6000 people today and we didn't see any movement, so I don't understand.
Could it be that there is something wrong with your sample group?0 -
I think there are a lot of very close seats, so my guess is that the Conservatives will end up very near to JackW, and that the LibDems will end up in the mid teens.0
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NaughtySean_F said:
I'm surprised IOS isn't here to talk about Labour's ground game.Casino_Royale said:Where are the PB Labour posters?
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yes yes yes0
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Question might be needed about the value of yougovs online panel.....Purseybear said:
Yep You Gov is a VI. Complete load of utter rubbish.Chris123 said:
It's a poll of 6.000 people, presumably from their panel. It's another poll not an exit poll.MikeL said:Can someone clarify the YouGov poll?
Exit?
Sample size?
Methodology?
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6446050/Tories-set-for-win-exit-poll-suggest.html
but who knows yet.0 -
Yes Please.JonCisBack said:Morley
and
Outwood
That is all0 -
Nick as per my post this morning, I do hope you do well albeit also that your result is the exception that proves the rule.NickPalmer said:Intriguing choice of exit polls, both of them producing an awkward result without an obvious majority, though obviously would be better than expected for Cameron. I can confirm that there were a higher number than usual of expected Labour voters in my patch who declined to say how they were voting, which isn't usually a good sign. But I won't comment more till we see the result.
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So, it looks like JackW was way too pessimistic, then.0
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Remember the ICM Wisdom was Con 35, Lab 320
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No, I think they take it into account.MonikerDiCanio said:The postal votes will favour the Tories, so the BBC exit poll is overstating Labour. This looks like a disaster for Labour.
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Good to see MARR back on it!0
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If YouGov have been wasting our collective time nightly for the last 5 years, as seems probable even on their own exit poll, I hope for their sake their exit poll does no turn out to be time-wasting crap in itself.0
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Very impressed with my BT Infinity connection - able to watch 5 channels at once via the Net.0
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By the top of the hour we would have the first declaration.
Wait till Nuneaton in about 2.5 hours.0 -
I did say that the stats I was getting in England showed swing to Labour just 1% and Thrasher said that too/. Jack W and Tory stats say so. But, exit poll is not the real vote. However, no way Labour will have more seats.0
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I'm still expecting Ed to be PM. I just don't buy the exit poll.0
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That just says Labour have increased their vote in the places they least need it.Danny565 said:Emily Maitlis projecting a big Labour rise in Sunderland, while a drop in top target North Warwickshire. It seems the "bias" in the electoral system has been totally reversed.
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Is he locked into a house on suicide watch?AndreaParma_82 said:LD President says Clegg is very secure in Hallam
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I would expect posters such as roger and Tyson to front it out - as will sunil!
Might not hear too much from roserees or mukesh!0 -
Polling in the future is going to have to be a lot more regionally based. Looking at England as just one entity is not going to work; doesn't work.0
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"Roll up that map (of the UK): it will not be wanted these ten years (from now)"0
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Kezia Dugdale busy burying the Labour Party in Scotland on BBC Scotland.
Saying Labour will let Tories in.0 -
I bet Marr doesn't get invited in by Cameron :-)0
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My Phone-only ELBOW had the Tories ahead, but only by 0.47%!
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5964282453288673280 -
Although we disagree on most to all things and I've given you a bit of stick recently, the best of luck to you.NickPalmer said:Intriguing choice of exit polls, both of them producing an awkward result without an obvious majority, though obviously would be better than expected for Cameron. I can confirm that there were a higher number than usual of expected Labour voters in my patch who declined to say how they were voting, which isn't usually a good sign. But I won't comment more till we see the result.
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What do the statisticians here think of this exit poll? What degree of MoE can we expect on seat totals?0
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No tic toc? Has your opponent conceded yet?NickPalmer said:Intriguing choice of exit polls, both of them producing an awkward result without an obvious majority, though obviously would be better than expected for Cameron. I can confirm that there were a higher number than usual of expected Labour voters in my patch who declined to say how they were voting, which isn't usually a good sign. But I won't comment more till we see the result.
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Why do you think that? There's been a big change in the pro and anti SNP vote shares between last September and now. Why is it "obviously" true that it's all going to stay static, or keep on moving in the same direction, between now and next year?Dair said:BEcause that will require an SNP vote in 2016. Obviously it will likely return a mandate for the Second Indyref.
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ITV Cymru
Welsh Labour sources tell me they’re confident of taking Cardiff North and Cardiff Central; Vale of Glamorgan still possible.
While Labour sources say Vale of Glamorgan is still possible, Conservative sources say they’re confident of keeping it.
Plaid Cymru sources will only say that Ynys Môn is ‘close.’ Also that UKIP has done well in West Wales but that Carmarthen E & D is safe.0 -
Whichever poll is right, one thing is clear for Lib Dems. You play with the sharks, you get eaten !0
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pretty sure on those numbers 239+58 is less than 316.
Cameron PM with the DUP+LD0 -
Yeah, that's my point. The "bias" was always Labour's vote being distributed very efficiently, but that could've reversed.KentRising said:
That just says Labour have increased their vote in the places they least need it.Danny565 said:Emily Maitlis projecting a big Labour rise in Sunderland, while a drop in top target North Warwickshire. It seems the "bias" in the electoral system has been totally reversed.
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The Exit pollsters themselves say 20-25 seat margin of error.Casino_Royale said:What do the statisticians here think of this exit poll? What degree of MoE can we expect on seat totals?
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Cameron still only 1.24 as next PM.
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bonkers.
I'm gobsmacked. But I believe the exit poll.
Couldn't be worse for labour.0 -
We all said it was a good election to lose. If The Tories end up nearer 290-295 as I expect it still aint an easy hand to play.0
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I just don't believe that exit poll. It is too good to be true. But there is no doubt it is massively better than I feared. I am delighted to be so wrong.0
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@PickardJE: Labour insider. "It's over...it's over."0
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Nice to hear Marr say how cold it is in Oxfordshire - it's 89 here....not crowing even a little bit
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If the tories are 300+ then this afternoons thread will be printed off and on my wall for future laughter and re quoting on here.0
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Sunderland in 10 minutes...
gloomy Labour faces0 -
I'm not. I have a feeling that poll's correct. We'll see later on, but PB Tories (if they wanted a Con minority) can celebrate. Congrats.Bob__Sykes said:I'm still expecting Ed to be PM. I just don't buy the exit poll.
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'only'Andrew said:Cameron still only 1.24 as next PM.
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A gain in seats (and presumably votes) is completely unprecedented - in times of economic hardship or not.0
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Where is the EdStone at the moment?0
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Guys just think.... Dan Hodges might have been right....0
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Yougov not an exit poll aparently, just recontacts to confirm responses of last normal poll.0
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My spiel about London being Labour and Labour London could actually be spot-on. Party on death row.AndyJS said:If it's still true that Labour have done well in London, they must have done horrendously in the rest of England outside the capital.
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YouGov is NOT an exit poll.
It's a recontact.0 -
Did I just hear Kellner questioning the Exit Poll? His and YouGov's reputation could be in tatters in a few hours time.0
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*If* the pollsters are this wrong, I can see a big market for new ways of conducting such research.
... just for those new systems to be proved wrong at the next election. ;-)0 -
In Miliband's garden in Doncaster?numbertwelve said:Where is the EdStone at the moment?
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Turnout can't be THAT high if Sunderland South is already almost finished.0
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Boring question, but where is the list of predictions? I can't remember what mine was....0
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@TimGatt: New #Edstone #SunNation http://t.co/V9SAb668QOnumbertwelve said:Where is the EdStone at the moment?
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2010 result — Houghton & Sunderland South:
Lab 19137 (50.3%)
Con 8147 (21.4%)
LD 5292 (13.9%)
Ind 2462 (6.5%)
BNP 1961 (5.2%)
UKIP 1022 (2.7%)
Turnout: 55.3%
Candidates this time:
Con: Stewart Hay
Lab: Bridget Phillipson
LD: Jim Murray
UKIP: Richard Elvin
Greens: Alan Robinson0 -
Yougov has not covered itself in glory. But has any pollster?Ishmael_X said:If YouGov have been wasting our collective time nightly for the last 5 years, as seems probable even on their own exit poll, I hope for their sake their exit poll does no turn out to be time-wasting crap in itself.
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I wonder what tim saying on twitter 0
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The Tories were down slightly in all the seats that the BBC projected just before on the basis of their exit poll, I think. It's just Labour are also down.Chameleon said:A gain in seats (and presumably votes) is completely unprecedented - in times of economic hardship or not.
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@WikiGuido: Tories pushing Ed Balls out rumour. Surely not...0
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Happy with 58?DavidL said:I just don't believe that exit poll. It is too good to be true. But there is no doubt it is massively better than I feared. I am delighted to be so wrong.
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Shy Tories would explain the difference between YouGov and BBC/ITV/Sky exit0
