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Biden withdraws from the 2024 White House race – politicalbetting.com

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  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Carnyx said:

    I want to talk about tuna mayo sandwiches

    I've just had my mail route changed. I've gone from a town route where Waitrose sold me sandwiches half way round my day, to a rural route where I need to make my own

    I've been making myself the best tuna mayo sandwiches

    I buy decent tinned tuna. Either Ortiz from Spain or Rio Mare from Italy. I think these cost about double the Waitrose own tins, but it's so worth it: the tuna is pink or white, not brown. And the flavour seems to somehow match the colour. Has to be well drained

    I dice, quite finely, salad onions, cucumber and celery into the mix. I'm not a fan of raw celery; I can't imagine wanting to eat a bare, raw stick of it. But it adds a nice complimentary flavour to the tuna salad mix

    More importantly the celery adds crunch. I think I learnt this from Frank Barone on Everybody Loves Raymond - without the crunch of celery, it's tuna slop

    I then add loads of parsley and chives. I try to make up for the fact that these two glorious tasting herbs have been wasted as garnish for as long as I can remember

    Then a dash of Dijon, and enough mayo to make it spread

    I like it best in a fresh, buttered baguette

    I make much better and a bit cheaper sandwiches than Waitrose

    Mayonnaise.

    We're not American.
    Bugger that, what's wrong with British salad cream?

    The sandwich sounds nice, but I like something a bit sweeter in with my tuna mayonnaise - a nice zingy diced apple would be a good addition.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 433
    edited July 21
    Anyway, I've just laboured my way through an hour or so of Liz Truss's triggernometry interview (So you don't have to);

    https://youtu.be/jqN-B4DVUww

    I feel like I did after watching Shoah. At least I got about 22 hours into Shoah before giving up - and it felt somewhat more historically important.

    back to liz;

    2 comments from other people sum it up;

    nolslifegren
    3 weeks ago
    "Bit Spinal Tap this . Next stop end of the pier - Puppet Show + Liz Truss"

    and (Seen on Twitter);

    "You should write to your MP about that"

    Indeed.

    Pure delusion, and desperation from the comedians who once showed promise - and maybe had a point about being cancelled. or whatever. anyway, what has become of them now?

    I wonder if they surrendered editorial control? Anyway, those guys need a new business model. YT Ads every 2 minutes. Inserts flogging gold, shredding their credibility. It's borderline unwatchable.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,701
    edited July 21

    What about the ghost of Jeffrey Epstein?
    Does he write haunting articles for the Speccie?
    The real Epstein appeared in at least 70 - different photos with Trump, plus Trump is evidenced both saying how well he knows him, and outright lying about any association.

    There's material to be mined; the question is whether the MSM will cover it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    Tonight’s events clearly weren’t coordinated.

    Blindsided: Biden team was whipping delegates when he dropped out
    https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/07/21/joe-biden-drops-out-election/biden-team-calling-delegates-drop-out-00170032
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    Ratters said:

    DavidL said:

    A right field suggestion from Aaron Sorkin: https://dnyuz.com/2024/07/21/aaron-sorkin-how-i-would-script-this-moment-for-biden-and-the-democrats/

    The Democrats should nominate.....Mitt Romney.

    Surely better as a VP pick if they wanted to go that way.
    In 1940, Republicans nominated Wendell Willkie who was a registered Democrat until 1939.

    Attractive candidate in many respects, he peaked when the won the GOP nomination, beating the Old Guard represented by Herbert Hoover and Robert Taft. BUT he proved less adept and appealing on the campaign trail.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ABC / Ipsos US (Jul 19-20, 2024)

    Trump
    Favourable 40%
    Unfavourable 51%
    No opinion 7%
    DK 2%

    Harris
    Favourable 35%
    Unfavourable 46%
    No opinion 13%
    DK 5%
    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1815118157151088932

    You're being selective in quoting polling again. You chose not to add from the same poll:

    Biden: 32% favorable, 55% unfavorable, 9% no opinion

    i.e. Opinion significantly more favourable towards Harris than Biden at the point just before he took the decision not to run again.
    Well if Biden felt he couldn't beat Trump again on those numbers Harris sure ain't either!
    Why? She has lower unfavorables as well.

    And in FPTP, having less active dislike of you is often the winning move.
    The Starmer strategy.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,584
    Andy_JS said:
    That strikes me as a surprisingly large implied probability of 'someone else'.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    Harris says she intends ‘to earn and win this nomination’ after Biden drops out
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4784737-kamala-harris-democratic-nomination/
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,701
    edited July 21

    ohnotnow said:

    boulay said:

    I want to talk about tuna mayo sandwiches

    I've just had my mail route changed. I've gone from a town route where Waitrose sold me sandwiches half way round my day, to a rural route where I need to make my own

    I've been making myself the best tuna mayo sandwiches

    I buy decent tinned tuna. Either Ortiz from Spain or Rio Mare from Italy. I think these cost about double the Waitrose own tins, but it's so worth it: the tuna is pink or white, not brown. And the flavour seems to somehow match the colour. Has to be well drained

    I dice, quite finely, salad onions, cucumber and celery into the mix. I'm not a fan of raw celery; I can't imagine wanting to eat a bare, raw stick of it. But it adds a nice complimentary flavour to the tuna salad mix

    More importantly the celery adds crunch. I think I learnt this from Frank Barone on Everybody Loves Raymond - without the crunch of celery, it's tuna slop

    I then add loads of parsley and chives. I try to make up for the fact that these two glorious tasting herbs have been wasted as garnish for as long as I can remember

    Then a dash of Dijon, and enough mayo to make it spread

    I like it best in a fresh, buttered baguette

    I make much better and a bit cheaper sandwiches than Waitrose

    Try horseradish instead of Dijon. Horseradish with certain fish is magnificent. Perfect with mackerel, new potatoes and beetroot weirdly.
    I am quite fond of this stuff :

    https://bonsan.co.uk/products/bonsan-organic-beetroot-horseradish-spread/

    "Bonsan vibrant red Beetroot & Horseradish spread really packs a punch. Made from earthy beetroots, fiery horseradish and sunflower seeds this healthy spread is the perfect accompaniment spread onto toast or in sandwiches, or even used as a dip for crudités."
    I like the sound of that but terrible website, the where to buy link goes nowhere. Any supermarket etc stockists?
    I have beetroot and horseradish sauce in my fridge, and a blender ... why would anyone need a stockist?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,701
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    I want to talk about tuna mayo sandwiches

    I've just had my mail route changed. I've gone from a town route where Waitrose sold me sandwiches half way round my day, to a rural route where I need to make my own

    I've been making myself the best tuna mayo sandwiches

    I buy decent tinned tuna. Either Ortiz from Spain or Rio Mare from Italy. I think these cost about double the Waitrose own tins, but it's so worth it: the tuna is pink or white, not brown. And the flavour seems to somehow match the colour. Has to be well drained

    I dice, quite finely, salad onions, cucumber and celery into the mix. I'm not a fan of raw celery; I can't imagine wanting to eat a bare, raw stick of it. But it adds a nice complimentary flavour to the tuna salad mix

    More importantly the celery adds crunch. I think I learnt this from Frank Barone on Everybody Loves Raymond - without the crunch of celery, it's tuna slop

    I then add loads of parsley and chives. I try to make up for the fact that these two glorious tasting herbs have been wasted as garnish for as long as I can remember

    Then a dash of Dijon, and enough mayo to make it spread

    I like it best in a fresh, buttered baguette

    I make much better and a bit cheaper sandwiches than Waitrose

    Sounds delightful.

    Similar recipes work well with finely sliced cooked chicken instead of tuna, should you have it left over.

    Hope you're scooping out cucumber insides and discarding. Makes it less sloppy.
    Discarding???

    That's the nicest bit!
    Putting your status as my favourite PB lefty in jeopardy with this crazy talk.
    I might suggest treetop onions, which are stronger flavour.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    PBers may wish to consider, the definite possibility that in the minds (and maybe even the hearts) of leading Democrats from Obama down, today is JOE BIDEN's Day.

    With BIG NEWS being his withdrawl from race AND endorsement of Harris.

    KH announcing her candidacy ASAP was imperative (politics like nature abhors a vacuum) so she did it, but that does NOT take the day away from JB.

    Personally think that the Clintons horning in, is attempting to make themselves relevant to the political realities of 2024. Which IMHO they are NOT except as baggage.

    My own Fearless PB Prediction, is that Obama, Pelosi, etc., etc. will be endorsing Kamala Harris in due course.

    We shall see.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,392
    Robert F. Kennedy Jr

    @RobertKennedyJr
    ·
    2h
    I will be giving a press conference today at 5 p.m. ET at the Kennedy Compound, Hyannis Port, Massachusetts.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    Many Republicans are going to say Harris is a “DEI” pick, which will play well with their base, but might make them look obnoxious to the swing voters.

    The pendulum is swinging against DEI in the US much faster than it is here. Ordinary Americans are now generally against the idea of of DEI and if the GOP can successfully label Kamala as the DEI candidate they'll win a landslide.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    MaxPB said:

    Many Republicans are going to say Harris is a “DEI” pick, which will play well with their base, but might make them look obnoxious to the swing voters.

    The pendulum is swinging against DEI in the US much faster than it is here. Ordinary Americans are now generally against the idea of of DEI and if the GOP can successfully label Kamala as the DEI candidate they'll win a landslide.
    Fact that she's been Vice President for last four years makes this attack ad less effective.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    I like Aron Sorkin’s suggestion of Romney. The base would hate it, and some would no doubt abstain in the election, but the result would be Trump soundly thrashed.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,946

    How on Earth after being president, can anyone have a positive view of Trump. Mad.

    I think all of us on here would do well to remember that many people do not share our own political opinions; probably even more so for voters in foreign countries who may live in a polity with some very different values to those of the UK.
    I am not disputing that - I am just saying it's mad.
    Mad to you maybe, but clearly not to millions of Americans.
    Again, that's not in dispute. I am just saying it's still mad.
    Taking the question seriously, I've been in America, and talked about this with some Republicans, in a non-judgemental way. This is what they usually say:

    - the economy was better during Trump's time in office, in particular prices of day-to-day essentials were more affordable
    - Trump appointed hundreds of conservative judges, in particular his three Supreme Court picks, who are getting rid of some of the more egregious liberal overreaches of the last 70 years
    - the world was more peaceful back then
    - he has no time for woke DEI bullshit
    - he's better than the weak and mediocre alternative or is at least more entertaining

    Of course lots of that is rose-tinted spectacles, and some of it is simply wrong, but that's what they seem to think, and it's apparently difficult to persuade them otherwise.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    MaxPB said:

    Many Republicans are going to say Harris is a “DEI” pick, which will play well with their base, but might make them look obnoxious to the swing voters.

    The pendulum is swinging against DEI in the US much faster than it is here. Ordinary Americans are now generally against the idea of of DEI and if the GOP can successfully label Kamala as the DEI candidate they'll win a landslide.
    Fact that she's been Vice President for last four years makes this attack ad less effective.
    And Trump is fairly (neuro)diverse himself.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    MaxPB said:

    Many Republicans are going to say Harris is a “DEI” pick, which will play well with their base, but might make them look obnoxious to the swing voters.

    The pendulum is swinging against DEI in the US much faster than it is here. Ordinary Americans are now generally against the idea of of DEI and if the GOP can successfully label Kamala as the DEI candidate they'll win a landslide.
    Fact that she's been Vice President for last four years makes this attack ad less effective.
    I don't think so because Biden picked her as part of a DEI ticket back then and now she inherits the nomination in a fixed race.

    I really want to see Trump beaten in November and Kamala won't be able to do it. The more people see her the more the dislike her and now she's going to be everywhere as the nominee.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    Fishing said:

    How on Earth after being president, can anyone have a positive view of Trump. Mad.

    I think all of us on here would do well to remember that many people do not share our own political opinions; probably even more so for voters in foreign countries who may live in a polity with some very different values to those of the UK.
    I am not disputing that - I am just saying it's mad.
    Mad to you maybe, but clearly not to millions of Americans.
    Again, that's not in dispute. I am just saying it's still mad.
    Taking the question seriously, I've been in America, and talked about this with some Republicans, in a non-judgemental way. This is what they usually say:

    - the economy was better during Trump's time in office, in particular prices of day-to-day essentials were more affordable
    - Trump appointed hundreds of conservative judges, in particular his three Supreme Court picks, who are getting rid of some of the more egregious liberal overreaches of the last 70 years
    - the world was more peaceful back then
    - he has no time for woke DEI bullshit
    - he's better than the weak and mediocre alternative or is at least more entertaining

    Of course lots of that is rose-tinted spectacles, and some of it is simply wrong, but that's what they seem to think, and it's apparently difficult to persuade them otherwise.
    I’ve had similar conversations, and I’d add to that “he will cut our taxes”. I think they are so used to his craziness that it doesn’t daunt them like it does us in Europe.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,308

    PBers may wish to consider, the definite possibility that in the minds (and maybe even the hearts) of leading Democrats from Obama down, today is JOE BIDEN's Day.

    With BIG NEWS being his withdrawl from race AND endorsement of Harris.

    KH announcing her candidacy ASAP was imperative (politics like nature abhors a vacuum) so she did it, but that does NOT take the day away from JB.

    Personally think that the Clintons horning in, is attempting to make themselves relevant to the political realities of 2024. Which IMHO they are NOT except as baggage.

    My own Fearless PB Prediction, is that Obama, Pelosi, etc., etc. will be endorsing Kamala Harris in due course.

    We shall see.

    As Joe Biden would say: Malarkey!

    Obama's statement explicitly refers to a process from which a nominee will emerge. He declined to endorse Biden's choice and instead leant his weight towards opening a contest.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534

    Representative Debbie Dingell, a Democratic ally of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, said on MSNBC that she had spoken with the governor and that Whitmer was “not a candidate for any office this year.”

    NY Times

    Many have said the like in the history of the Republic, but somehow managed to change their minds IF they are actually asked and/or nominated.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 433

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr

    @RobertKennedyJr
    ·
    2h
    I will be giving a press conference today at 5 p.m. ET at the Kennedy Compound, Hyannis Port, Massachusetts.

    Good for him.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,135

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr

    @RobertKennedyJr
    ·
    2h
    I will be giving a press conference today at 5 p.m. ET at the Kennedy Compound, Hyannis Port, Massachusetts.

    Is he likely to endorse Harris?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,789
    Live stream of RFK Jr's press conference.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXrysxb8_m4
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr

    @RobertKennedyJr
    ·
    2h
    I will be giving a press conference today at 5 p.m. ET at the Kennedy Compound, Hyannis Port, Massachusetts.

    Sideshow Bob.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,578
    Andy_JS said:

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr

    @RobertKennedyJr
    ·
    2h
    I will be giving a press conference today at 5 p.m. ET at the Kennedy Compound, Hyannis Port, Massachusetts.

    Is he likely to endorse Harris?
    No:

    https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1815111490380427481
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    A great day for western democracy.

    Not if it's a stitch up for Harris.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,135
    He should have kept quiet if he'd wanted to most help Harris.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069

    PBers may wish to consider, the definite possibility that in the minds (and maybe even the hearts) of leading Democrats from Obama down, today is JOE BIDEN's Day.

    With BIG NEWS being his withdrawl from race AND endorsement of Harris.

    KH announcing her candidacy ASAP was imperative (politics like nature abhors a vacuum) so she did it, but that does NOT take the day away from JB.

    Personally think that the Clintons horning in, is attempting to make themselves relevant to the political realities of 2024. Which IMHO they are NOT except as baggage.

    My own Fearless PB Prediction, is that Obama, Pelosi, etc., etc. will be endorsing Kamala Harris in due course.

    We shall see.

    As Joe Biden would say: Malarkey!

    Obama's statement explicitly refers to a process from which a nominee will emerge. He declined to endorse Biden's choice and instead leant his weight towards opening a contest.
    Remember the (small integer)th rule of politics.

    Never believe anything until it's been officially denied.

    If the party management plan is to ease Harris into the nomination, it's vital that everyone (including Harris) will talk about a competitive process.

    There are very many good reasons to think that any such process will end up with exactly one candidate.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,701
    It's time for The Westminster Hour on R4 at 10:06pm.

    Might be one worth listening to this week.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_fourfm
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ABC / Ipsos US (Jul 19-20, 2024)

    Trump
    Favourable 40%
    Unfavourable 51%
    No opinion 7%
    DK 2%

    Harris
    Favourable 35%
    Unfavourable 46%
    No opinion 13%
    DK 5%
    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1815118157151088932

    You're being selective in quoting polling again. You chose not to add from the same poll:

    Biden: 32% favorable, 55% unfavorable, 9% no opinion

    i.e. Opinion significantly more favourable towards Harris than Biden at the point just before he took the decision not to run again.
    Well if Biden felt he couldn't beat Trump again on those numbers Harris sure ain't either!
    Why? She has lower unfavorables as well.

    And in FPTP, having less active dislike of you is often the winning move.
    She has 47% unfavourable, just 35% favourable that is a huge net negative for her with none of the enthusiasm for her from Democrats Trump has from his supporters
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,789
    Go on guys. Have a guess who predicted Biden would go on Sunday or Monday.

    Just one guess... :)
    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    If Biden does not go in the next few days, then he's probably destroyed the Democrats' chances in November.

    And done severe damage to my Betfair book.

    Sunday or Monday seem to be the days being most talked about for his exit.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    Andy_JS said:

    He should have kept quiet if he'd wanted to most help Harris.
    You are GREATLY over-estimating antipathy to Soros, outside the rightwing-Putin-MAGA echo chamber. For one thing, most voters don't know OR care who the heck he is.

    What his statement DOES signify, is a signal to major donors - Democratic and Independent - to get on board the Harris Express.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,578
    edited July 21
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ABC / Ipsos US (Jul 19-20, 2024)

    Trump
    Favourable 40%
    Unfavourable 51%
    No opinion 7%
    DK 2%

    Harris
    Favourable 35%
    Unfavourable 46%
    No opinion 13%
    DK 5%
    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1815118157151088932

    You're being selective in quoting polling again. You chose not to add from the same poll:

    Biden: 32% favorable, 55% unfavorable, 9% no opinion

    i.e. Opinion significantly more favourable towards Harris than Biden at the point just before he took the decision not to run again.
    Well if Biden felt he couldn't beat Trump again on those numbers Harris sure ain't either!
    Why? She has lower unfavorables as well.

    And in FPTP, having less active dislike of you is often the winning move.
    She has 47% unfavourable, just 35% favourable that is a huge net negative for her with none of the enthusiasm for her from Democrats Trump has from his supporters
    She has 46% unfavourable according to your earlier post. That's a net -11, same as Trump.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited July 21
    Andy_JS said:

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr

    '@RobertKennedyJr
    ·
    2h
    I will be giving a press conference today at 5 p.m. ET at the Kennedy Compound, Hyannis Port, Massachusetts.

    Is he likely to endorse Harris?
    Anything but, Kennedy like Obama demands an open nomination convention

    'I commend President Biden for stepping down. His infirmities were evident to any unbiased observer from the beginning. It was this progressive deterioration — and his abandonment of Democratic Party principles — that prompted me to enter the race and ensure American voters had a viable, vigorous alternative to Donald Trump.

    Yet the response of the DNC was to try and hide President Biden’s degeneration from the American public and disable democracy to ram him through to his party’s nomination.

    Many Americans fear that the same DNC elites are about to rig the nominating process again to get a monumentally unpopular vice president to step into President Biden’s shoes.

    I call on the Democratic Party to return to its traditional commitment to democracy and exemplify it with an open process. Instead of anointing a candidate hand-picked by DNC elites, the party should use neutral polling to identify the candidate who can best beat Donald Trump. The delegates should then select a nominee based on this information.

    If they had done this to begin with, I would not have had to leave the Democratic Party.'

    https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1815111490380427481
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    viewcode said:

    Go on guys. Have a guess who predicted Biden would go on Sunday or Monday.

    Just one guess... :)

    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    If Biden does not go in the next few days, then he's probably destroyed the Democrats' chances in November.

    And done severe damage to my Betfair book.

    Sunday or Monday seem to be the days being most talked about for his exit.
    Half or more of US media were saying the same. Not sure they got it from our Andy!
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,955
    FWIW, Gretchen Whitmer's second husband, "dentist Marc P. Mallory, [is] a Republican voter who identifies as fiscally conservative but socially liberal."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gretchen_Whitmer#Personal_life

    Judging only from that little Wiki info, the two seem to be making a success of their blended famliy.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    edited July 21
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ABC / Ipsos US (Jul 19-20, 2024)

    Trump
    Favourable 40%
    Unfavourable 51%
    No opinion 7%
    DK 2%

    Harris
    Favourable 35%
    Unfavourable 46%
    No opinion 13%
    DK 5%
    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1815118157151088932

    You're being selective in quoting polling again. You chose not to add from the same poll:

    Biden: 32% favorable, 55% unfavorable, 9% no opinion

    i.e. Opinion significantly more favourable towards Harris than Biden at the point just before he took the decision not to run again.
    Well if Biden felt he couldn't beat Trump again on those numbers Harris sure ain't either!
    Why? She has lower unfavorables as well.

    And in FPTP, having less active dislike of you is often the winning move.
    She has 47% unfavourable, just 35% favourable that is a huge net negative for her with none of the enthusiasm for her from Democrats Trump has from his supporters
    Question for people who know more about US politics than me: why exactly is KH so supposedly unpopular? From what I’ve seen of her she’s OK, a bit bland maybe, certainly not a particularly divisive personality. Contrast with someone like JD Vance, or on the Dem side AOC.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534

    FWIW, Gretchen Whitmer's second husband, "dentist Marc P. Mallory, [is] a Republican voter who identifies as fiscally conservative but socially liberal."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gretchen_Whitmer#Personal_life

    Judging only from that little Wiki info, the two seem to be making a success of their blended famliy.

    Gov. Whitmer's only had two spouses? Trump's gonna call that under-achieving!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509

    Andy_JS said:

    He should have kept quiet if he'd wanted to most help Harris.
    You are GREATLY over-estimating antipathy to Soros, outside the rightwing-Putin-MAGA echo chamber. For one thing, most voters don't know OR care who the heck he is.

    What his statement DOES signify, is a signal to major donors - Democratic and Independent - to get on board the Harris Express.
    Quite a number of congresspeople endorsing.

    My feeling is that the Dems want to avoid the impression of a stitch up, but at some point soon, unless one of the big names throws their hat in the ring (which seems fairly unlikely), it become a fact accompli anyway.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    Joe Biden is one of the handful of truly great presidents in American history and a patriot beyond measure. We Democrats will be unified and focused behind our next President, Kamala Harris, to keep their great success going and to defeat the autocrats, theocrats and plutocrats.
    https://x.com/jamie_raskin/status/1815117782775951597
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 433
    edited July 21
    I love my country.

    Among our people there is an "Asparagus fortune teller"

    https://twitter.com/dannyparkinson/status/1815084737519591547?s=61
  • I've been told @CorrectHorseBattery will NOT be going for the nomination this time.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,789
    Biden. Bye, den.

    Dammit, why didn't I think of that earlier?

    (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L'esprit_de_l'escalier )
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ABC / Ipsos US (Jul 19-20, 2024)

    Trump
    Favourable 40%
    Unfavourable 51%
    No opinion 7%
    DK 2%

    Harris
    Favourable 35%
    Unfavourable 46%
    No opinion 13%
    DK 5%
    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1815118157151088932

    You're being selective in quoting polling again. You chose not to add from the same poll:

    Biden: 32% favorable, 55% unfavorable, 9% no opinion

    i.e. Opinion significantly more favourable towards Harris than Biden at the point just before he took the decision not to run again.
    Well if Biden felt he couldn't beat Trump again on those numbers Harris sure ain't either!
    Why? She has lower unfavorables as well.

    And in FPTP, having less active dislike of you is often the winning move.
    She has 47% unfavourable, just 35% favourable that is a huge net negative for her with none of the enthusiasm for her from Democrats Trump has from his supporters
    Question for people who know more about US politics than me: why exactly is KH so supposedly unpopular? From what I’ve seen of her she’s OK, a bit bland maybe, certainly not a particularly divisive personality. Contrast with someone like JD Vance, or on the Dem side AOC.
    She’s not especially un-popular.

    Just that she looks to lose, fairly narrowly, against Trump.

    She’s not the best political performer. Her prosecutorial history is not liked by blacks or the left of the Democrat Party. Her recent attempts to attach herself to more liberal causes have put off more people than she gained.

    Essentially, she has the CV for a presidential
    candidate. But she doesn’t seem to have the instincts and abilities that make a political star, in the US.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,112
    Nigelb said:

    Joe Biden is one of the handful of truly great presidents in American history and a patriot beyond measure. We Democrats will be unified and focused behind our next President, Kamala Harris, to keep their great success going and to defeat the autocrats, theocrats and plutocrats.
    https://x.com/jamie_raskin/status/1815117782775951597

    Such fawning won't help.

    He doesn't have the support to win again. No mythologising will help his potential successor.

    And electorally, it shouldn't be Kamela. Newsom stands a chance. She doesn't.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    viewcode said:

    Go on guys. Have a guess who predicted Biden would go on Sunday or Monday.

    Just one guess... :)

    Leon?

    :smiley:
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534
    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    He should have kept quiet if he'd wanted to most help Harris.
    You are GREATLY over-estimating antipathy to Soros, outside the rightwing-Putin-MAGA echo chamber. For one thing, most voters don't know OR care who the heck he is.

    What his statement DOES signify, is a signal to major donors - Democratic and Independent - to get on board the Harris Express.
    Quite a number of congresspeople endorsing.

    My feeling is that the Dems want to avoid the impression of a stitch up, but at some point soon, unless one of the big names throws their hat in the ring (which seems fairly unlikely), it become a fact accompli anyway.
    IMHO there is a high degree of choreography re: endorsements of Harris by leading Democratic muckety-mucks.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,534

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ABC / Ipsos US (Jul 19-20, 2024)

    Trump
    Favourable 40%
    Unfavourable 51%
    No opinion 7%
    DK 2%

    Harris
    Favourable 35%
    Unfavourable 46%
    No opinion 13%
    DK 5%
    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1815118157151088932

    You're being selective in quoting polling again. You chose not to add from the same poll:

    Biden: 32% favorable, 55% unfavorable, 9% no opinion

    i.e. Opinion significantly more favourable towards Harris than Biden at the point just before he took the decision not to run again.
    Well if Biden felt he couldn't beat Trump again on those numbers Harris sure ain't either!
    Why? She has lower unfavorables as well.

    And in FPTP, having less active dislike of you is often the winning move.
    She has 47% unfavourable, just 35% favourable that is a huge net negative for her with none of the enthusiasm for her from Democrats Trump has from his supporters
    Question for people who know more about US politics than me: why exactly is KH so supposedly unpopular? From what I’ve seen of her she’s OK, a bit bland maybe, certainly not a particularly divisive personality. Contrast with someone like JD Vance, or on the Dem side AOC.
    She’s not especially un-popular.

    Just that she looks to lose, fairly narrowly, against Trump.

    She’s not the best political performer. Her prosecutorial history is not liked by blacks or the left of the Democrat Party. Her recent attempts to attach herself to more liberal causes have put off more people than she gained.

    Essentially, she has the CV for a presidential
    candidate. But she doesn’t seem to have the instincts and abilities that make a political star, in the US.
    Re: last sentence, we're all gonna find out.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,578
    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Joe Biden is one of the handful of truly great presidents in American history and a patriot beyond measure. We Democrats will be unified and focused behind our next President, Kamala Harris, to keep their great success going and to defeat the autocrats, theocrats and plutocrats.
    https://x.com/jamie_raskin/status/1815117782775951597

    Such fawning won't help.

    He doesn't have the support to win again. No mythologising will help his potential successor.

    And electorally, it shouldn't be Kamela. Newsom stands a chance. She doesn't.
    Of course she stands a chance; she's not a shoo-in, or even favourite, but she stands a fair chance.

    I think she'll win FWIW.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,789

    I love my country.

    Among our people there is an "Asparagus fortune teller"

    https://twitter.com/dannyparkinson/status/1815084737519591547?s=61

    What the fuck. I mean...what the fuck. What the actual fuck. Da-what? Aaargh!

    (for all those of you not following, somebody who claims to be able to tell the future by casting asparagusi predicted that a woman would win the election. Before Biden bye-den'd)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,578

    viewcode said:

    Go on guys. Have a guess who predicted Biden would go on Sunday or Monday.

    Just one guess... :)

    Leon?

    :smiley:
    Don't be silly, we're talking about a correct prediction.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Joe Biden is one of the handful of truly great presidents in American history and a patriot beyond measure. We Democrats will be unified and focused behind our next President, Kamala Harris, to keep their great success going and to defeat the autocrats, theocrats and plutocrats.
    https://x.com/jamie_raskin/status/1815117782775951597

    Such fawning won't help.

    He doesn't have the support to win again. No mythologising will help his potential successor.

    And electorally, it shouldn't be Kamela. Newsom stands a chance. She doesn't.
    Newsom won't win either. I think his appeal is too coastal, will be a rerun of the Al Gore campaign in 2000 which as we know didn't win and many of the swing states have trended to the right since then. Newsom will likely run up huge margins in California, Washington, New York and other liberal parts of the nation but lose swing states.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,392
    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Joe Biden is one of the handful of truly great presidents in American history and a patriot beyond measure. We Democrats will be unified and focused behind our next President, Kamala Harris, to keep their great success going and to defeat the autocrats, theocrats and plutocrats.
    https://x.com/jamie_raskin/status/1815117782775951597

    Such fawning won't help.

    He doesn't have the support to win again. No mythologising will help his potential successor.

    And electorally, it shouldn't be Kamela. Newsom stands a chance. She doesn't.
    Whitmer has the best chance imho.

    But we are where we are and Kamala is 10x better than a far too old Biden.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,578
    A few hours after Joe Biden dropped his re-election bid, his campaign fund was renamed “Harris for President,” a filing with the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) shows.

    Another document filed by the previous Biden for President campaign to the FEC notes that Harris is “no longer a candidate” for vice-president and is instead a candidate for president and “will henceforth be conducting campaign activities only in pursuit of that office.”

    The move gives Harris, already the frontrunner for the presidency among Democrats, access to the Biden campaign coffers. A campaign filing yesterday showed the campaign has nearly $96 million in cash on hand.


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/jul/21/biden-drops-out-presidential-election
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    What is the point of a pay review if you don't implement it?
    If you don't like their recommendations why don't you change the criteria?



  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,392

    Jim Pickard 🐋
    @PickardJE
    ·
    3h
    and now the questions about age and cognitive faculties will - presumably - be about the other candidate
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    He should have kept quiet if he'd wanted to most help Harris.
    You are GREATLY over-estimating antipathy to Soros, outside the rightwing-Putin-MAGA echo chamber. For one thing, most voters don't know OR care who the heck he is.

    What his statement DOES signify, is a signal to major donors - Democratic and Independent - to get on board the Harris Express.
    Quite a number of congresspeople endorsing.

    My feeling is that the Dems want to avoid the impression of a stitch up, but at some point soon, unless one of the big names throws their hat in the ring (which seems fairly unlikely), it become a fact accompli anyway.
    IMHO there is a high degree of choreography re: endorsements of Harris by leading Democratic muckety-mucks.
    Agreed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509


    Jim Pickard 🐋
    @PickardJE
    ·
    3h
    and now the questions about age and cognitive faculties will - presumably - be about the other candidate

    No, he gets a pass on all of that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,392
    "She prosecuted sex predators.

    He is one."


    New Harris ad.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,392
    I have no idea whether Kamala can beat Trump 2.0

    But the dice has been rolled and she has a better chance than someone too old to do four more years.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,879
    Why is no one talking about Trump donating to Harris's campaign?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited July 21
    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Joe Biden is one of the handful of truly great presidents in American history and a patriot beyond measure. We Democrats will be unified and focused behind our next President, Kamala Harris, to keep their great success going and to defeat the autocrats, theocrats and plutocrats.
    https://x.com/jamie_raskin/status/1815117782775951597

    Such fawning won't help.

    He doesn't have the support to win again. No mythologising will help his potential successor.

    And electorally, it shouldn't be Kamela. Newsom stands a chance. She doesn't.
    Newsom won't win either. I think his appeal is too coastal, will be a rerun of the Al Gore campaign in 2000 which as we know didn't win and many of the swing states have trended to the right since then. Newsom will likely run up huge margins in California, Washington, New York and other liberal parts of the nation but lose swing states.
    Same applies to Harris.

    Buttigieg is clearly preparing for a candidacy at the convention, Harris is likely to sack him apparently from the Cabinet if she becomes POTUS and there is no love lost between them.

    At the moment the divide looks like 2008, the Clintons and Democrat old guard behind Harris and trying to make her heir apparent, the Obamas and Kennedys want a younger more dynamic candidate like Buttigieg
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,474
    Nigelb said:

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr

    @RobertKennedyJr
    ·
    2h
    I will be giving a press conference today at 5 p.m. ET at the Kennedy Compound, Hyannis Port, Massachusetts.

    Sideshow Bob.
    Not as sane as that...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    ...
    Nigelb said:


    Jim Pickard 🐋
    @PickardJE
    ·
    3h
    and now the questions about age and cognitive faculties will - presumably - be about the other candidate

    No, he gets a pass on all of that.
    Only with his base. I am not entirely convinced the waverers won't ask that question.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,789
    Who - if anybody - is the straight working-class white male Democratic governor who can balance the ticket? I don't see the South going for Harris/Buttigieg, Newsom is a California liberal so too posh and libby, Whitmer is a woman. How about Roy Cooper? (D-North Carolina)?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,308
    viewcode said:

    Who - if anybody - is the straight working-class white male Democratic governor who can balance the ticket? I don't see the South going for Harris/Buttigieg, Newsom is a California liberal so too posh and libby, Whitmer is a woman. How about Roy Cooper? (D-North Carolina)?

    Have any governors endorsed her yet, or are the all on team Obama and wanting to avoid a coronation?
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 962
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ABC / Ipsos US (Jul 19-20, 2024)

    Trump
    Favourable 40%
    Unfavourable 51%
    No opinion 7%
    DK 2%

    Harris
    Favourable 35%
    Unfavourable 46%
    No opinion 13%
    DK 5%
    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1815118157151088932

    You're being selective in quoting polling again. You chose not to add from the same poll:

    Biden: 32% favorable, 55% unfavorable, 9% no opinion

    i.e. Opinion significantly more favourable towards Harris than Biden at the point just before he took the decision not to run again.
    Well if Biden felt he couldn't beat Trump again on those numbers Harris sure ain't either!
    Why? She has lower unfavorables as well.

    And in FPTP, having less active dislike of you is often the winning move.
    She has 47% unfavourable, just 35% favourable that is a huge net negative for her with none of the enthusiasm for her from Democrats Trump has from his supporters
    Question for people who know more about US politics than me: why exactly is KH so supposedly unpopular? From what I’ve seen of her she’s OK, a bit bland maybe, certainly not a particularly divisive personality. Contrast with someone like JD Vance, or on the Dem side AOC.
    She's tied to Biden
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    dixiedean said:

    What is the point of a pay review if you don't implement it?
    If you don't like their recommendations why don't you change the criteria?

    Same reason my landlord has an agent. Intermediaries can be used to delay, to cajole, to blame, to pointedly ignore etc.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509

    ...

    Nigelb said:


    Jim Pickard 🐋
    @PickardJE
    ·
    3h
    and now the questions about age and cognitive faculties will - presumably - be about the other candidate

    No, he gets a pass on all of that.
    Only with his base. I am not entirely convinced the waverers won't ask that question.
    With most of the media, too.
    That dynamic might change, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    rcs1000 said:

    Why is no one talking about Trump donating to Harris's campaign?

    Who do you think that the public learning that would be good for?
  • "She prosecuted sex predators.

    He is one."


    New Harris ad.

    Fake news. This is from 2020.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    rcs1000 said:

    I am going to create a list of PB's best irrationally over the top hatreds.

    @bigjohnowls and Starmer
    @Luckyguy1983 and Sunak
    @rcs1000 and Zac Goldsmith
    @HYUFD and Kamala Harris

    @malcolmg and turnips.
    @malcolmg adores cask strength turnip juice
    I may throw my hat in the ring for Biden's job
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226

    viewcode said:

    Who - if anybody - is the straight working-class white male Democratic governor who can balance the ticket? I don't see the South going for Harris/Buttigieg, Newsom is a California liberal so too posh and libby, Whitmer is a woman. How about Roy Cooper? (D-North Carolina)?

    Have any governors endorsed her yet, or are the all on team Obama and wanting to avoid a coronation?
    Half of them probably think they can be nominee and are more electable than her
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited July 21
    malcolmg said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I am going to create a list of PB's best irrationally over the top hatreds.

    @bigjohnowls and Starmer
    @Luckyguy1983 and Sunak
    @rcs1000 and Zac Goldsmith
    @HYUFD and Kamala Harris

    @malcolmg and turnips.
    @malcolmg adores cask strength turnip juice
    I may throw my hat in the ring for Biden's job
    Well you would certainly have more appeal in the Appalachians and rustbelt than Harris does Malc!
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Nunu5 said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ABC / Ipsos US (Jul 19-20, 2024)

    Trump
    Favourable 40%
    Unfavourable 51%
    No opinion 7%
    DK 2%

    Harris
    Favourable 35%
    Unfavourable 46%
    No opinion 13%
    DK 5%
    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1815118157151088932

    You're being selective in quoting polling again. You chose not to add from the same poll:

    Biden: 32% favorable, 55% unfavorable, 9% no opinion

    i.e. Opinion significantly more favourable towards Harris than Biden at the point just before he took the decision not to run again.
    Well if Biden felt he couldn't beat Trump again on those numbers Harris sure ain't either!
    Why? She has lower unfavorables as well.

    And in FPTP, having less active dislike of you is often the winning move.
    She has 47% unfavourable, just 35% favourable that is a huge net negative for her with none of the enthusiasm for her from Democrats Trump has from his supporters
    Question for people who know more about US politics than me: why exactly is KH so supposedly unpopular? From what I’ve seen of her she’s OK, a bit bland maybe, certainly not a particularly divisive personality. Contrast with someone like JD Vance, or on the Dem side AOC.
    She's tied to Biden
    She's black and female.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Joe Biden is one of the handful of truly great presidents in American history and a patriot beyond measure. We Democrats will be unified and focused behind our next President, Kamala Harris, to keep their great success going and to defeat the autocrats, theocrats and plutocrats.
    https://x.com/jamie_raskin/status/1815117782775951597

    Such fawning won't help.

    He doesn't have the support to win again. No mythologising will help his potential successor.

    And electorally, it shouldn't be Kamela. Newsom stands a chance. She doesn't.
    Newsom won't win either. I think his appeal is too coastal, will be a rerun of the Al Gore campaign in 2000 which as we know didn't win and many of the swing states have trended to the right since then. Newsom will likely run up huge margins in California, Washington, New York and other liberal parts of the nation but lose swing states.
    Why are you right wingers so convinced Trump will walk it?

    You may of course be correct, nonetheless Trump appears to me to be such a flawed candidate anything can happen now Sleepy Joe is out of the picture.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    WillG said:

    Nunu5 said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ABC / Ipsos US (Jul 19-20, 2024)

    Trump
    Favourable 40%
    Unfavourable 51%
    No opinion 7%
    DK 2%

    Harris
    Favourable 35%
    Unfavourable 46%
    No opinion 13%
    DK 5%
    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1815118157151088932

    You're being selective in quoting polling again. You chose not to add from the same poll:

    Biden: 32% favorable, 55% unfavorable, 9% no opinion

    i.e. Opinion significantly more favourable towards Harris than Biden at the point just before he took the decision not to run again.
    Well if Biden felt he couldn't beat Trump again on those numbers Harris sure ain't either!
    Why? She has lower unfavorables as well.

    And in FPTP, having less active dislike of you is often the winning move.
    She has 47% unfavourable, just 35% favourable that is a huge net negative for her with none of the enthusiasm for her from Democrats Trump has from his supporters
    Question for people who know more about US politics than me: why exactly is KH so supposedly unpopular? From what I’ve seen of her she’s OK, a bit bland maybe, certainly not a particularly divisive personality. Contrast with someone like JD Vance, or on the Dem side AOC.
    She's tied to Biden
    She's black and female.
    So is Michelle Obama but she has far more charisma than Harris
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr

    @RobertKennedyJr
    ·
    2h
    I will be giving a press conference today at 5 p.m. ET at the Kennedy Compound, Hyannis Port, Massachusetts.

    Sideshow Bob.
    Not as sane as that...
    GSOH, though.

    RFK Jr. is giving a press conference in Hyannis Port.

    “I would certainly listen to the [Democrat] party elders if they came to me…I’m the only presidential candidate who can beat Donald Trump, and if I were them I would do that and I would certainly listen to their proposals”

    https://x.com/VeraMBergen/status/1815138567187779858
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I am going to create a list of PB's best irrationally over the top hatreds.

    @bigjohnowls and Starmer
    @Luckyguy1983 and Sunak
    @rcs1000 and Zac Goldsmith
    @HYUFD and Kamala Harris

    @malcolmg and turnips.
    @malcolmg adores cask strength turnip juice
    I may throw my hat in the ring for Biden's job
    Well you would certainly have more appeal in the Appalachians and rustbelt than Harris does Malc!
    get some good moonshine as well, bully bargain
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Nigelb said:

    ...

    Nigelb said:


    Jim Pickard 🐋
    @PickardJE
    ·
    3h
    and now the questions about age and cognitive faculties will - presumably - be about the other candidate

    No, he gets a pass on all of that.
    Only with his base. I am not entirely convinced the waverers won't ask that question.
    With most of the media, too.
    That dynamic might change, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
    Perhaps I watch too many Lincoln Project ads.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    TimS said:

    I like Aron Sorkin’s suggestion of Romney. The base would hate it, and some would no doubt abstain in the election, but the result would be Trump soundly thrashed.

    Was Sorkin on something when he said that ? It’s delusional .
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,584
    viewcode said:

    Who - if anybody - is the straight working-class white male Democratic governor who can balance the ticket? I don't see the South going for Harris/Buttigieg, Newsom is a California liberal so too posh and libby, Whitmer is a woman. How about Roy Cooper? (D-North Carolina)?

    For a glorious moment I read that as Roy Cropper.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Cropper

    That would certainly balance the ticket.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    nico679 said:

    TimS said:

    I like Aron Sorkin’s suggestion of Romney. The base would hate it, and some would no doubt abstain in the election, but the result would be Trump soundly thrashed.

    Was Sorkin on something when he said that ? It’s delusional .
    That it would happen, or that he would win?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr

    @RobertKennedyJr
    ·
    2h
    I will be giving a press conference today at 5 p.m. ET at the Kennedy Compound, Hyannis Port, Massachusetts.

    Sideshow Bob.
    Not as sane as that...
    GSOH, though.

    RFK Jr. is giving a press conference in Hyannis Port.

    “I would certainly listen to the [Democrat] party elders if they came to me…I’m the only presidential candidate who can beat Donald Trump, and if I were them I would do that and I would certainly listen to their proposals”

    https://x.com/VeraMBergen/status/1815138567187779858
    Woof, woof!
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    TimS said:

    I like Aron Sorkin’s suggestion of Romney. The base would hate it, and some would no doubt abstain in the election, but the result would be Trump soundly thrashed.

    And you would get a "severely conservative" presidency.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,392
    edited July 21
    viewcode said:

    Who - if anybody - is the straight working-class white male Democratic governor who can balance the ticket? I don't see the South going for Harris/Buttigieg, Newsom is a California liberal so too posh and libby, Whitmer is a woman. How about Roy Cooper? (D-North Carolina)?

    Shapiro might bring Penn.

    Not working class though.

    Edit: 2.82 on BF
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    HYUFD said:

    WillG said:

    Nunu5 said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ABC / Ipsos US (Jul 19-20, 2024)

    Trump
    Favourable 40%
    Unfavourable 51%
    No opinion 7%
    DK 2%

    Harris
    Favourable 35%
    Unfavourable 46%
    No opinion 13%
    DK 5%
    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1815118157151088932

    You're being selective in quoting polling again. You chose not to add from the same poll:

    Biden: 32% favorable, 55% unfavorable, 9% no opinion

    i.e. Opinion significantly more favourable towards Harris than Biden at the point just before he took the decision not to run again.
    Well if Biden felt he couldn't beat Trump again on those numbers Harris sure ain't either!
    Why? She has lower unfavorables as well.

    And in FPTP, having less active dislike of you is often the winning move.
    She has 47% unfavourable, just 35% favourable that is a huge net negative for her with none of the enthusiasm for her from Democrats Trump has from his supporters
    Question for people who know more about US politics than me: why exactly is KH so supposedly unpopular? From what I’ve seen of her she’s OK, a bit bland maybe, certainly not a particularly divisive personality. Contrast with someone like JD Vance, or on the Dem side AOC.
    She's tied to Biden
    She's black and female.
    So is Michelle Obama but she has far more charisma than Harris
    People saying Harris has no charisma haven't seen her in action. Michelle Obama is very popular because she has no political record and got to spend eight years as First Lady hugging puppies and helping charities.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 962
    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Why is no one talking about Trump donating to Harris's campaign?

    Who do you think that the public learning that would be good for?
    He has never made a secret of donating to Democrats in the past.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,392
    I just put a few £ on Beto as Dem veep.

    500/1

    Campaigning energetic maniac. Next generation. Helps in TX.

  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 962
    WillG said:

    Nunu5 said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ABC / Ipsos US (Jul 19-20, 2024)

    Trump
    Favourable 40%
    Unfavourable 51%
    No opinion 7%
    DK 2%

    Harris
    Favourable 35%
    Unfavourable 46%
    No opinion 13%
    DK 5%
    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1815118157151088932

    You're being selective in quoting polling again. You chose not to add from the same poll:

    Biden: 32% favorable, 55% unfavorable, 9% no opinion

    i.e. Opinion significantly more favourable towards Harris than Biden at the point just before he took the decision not to run again.
    Well if Biden felt he couldn't beat Trump again on those numbers Harris sure ain't either!
    Why? She has lower unfavorables as well.

    And in FPTP, having less active dislike of you is often the winning move.
    She has 47% unfavourable, just 35% favourable that is a huge net negative for her with none of the enthusiasm for her from Democrats Trump has from his supporters
    Question for people who know more about US politics than me: why exactly is KH so supposedly unpopular? From what I’ve seen of her she’s OK, a bit bland maybe, certainly not a particularly divisive personality. Contrast with someone like JD Vance, or on the Dem side AOC.
    She's tied to Biden
    She's black and female.
    I don't think being the first female president has the same significance as Obama being the first Black president, i.e. I doubt it makes a difference
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,644

    I just put a few £ on Beto as Dem veep.

    500/1

    Campaigning energetic maniac. Next generation. Helps in TX.

    Beto Kenobi. Now, that's a name I've not heard in a long time.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,765
    Nunu5 said:

    WillG said:

    Nunu5 said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ABC / Ipsos US (Jul 19-20, 2024)

    Trump
    Favourable 40%
    Unfavourable 51%
    No opinion 7%
    DK 2%

    Harris
    Favourable 35%
    Unfavourable 46%
    No opinion 13%
    DK 5%
    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1815118157151088932

    You're being selective in quoting polling again. You chose not to add from the same poll:

    Biden: 32% favorable, 55% unfavorable, 9% no opinion

    i.e. Opinion significantly more favourable towards Harris than Biden at the point just before he took the decision not to run again.
    Well if Biden felt he couldn't beat Trump again on those numbers Harris sure ain't either!
    Why? She has lower unfavorables as well.

    And in FPTP, having less active dislike of you is often the winning move.
    She has 47% unfavourable, just 35% favourable that is a huge net negative for her with none of the enthusiasm for her from Democrats Trump has from his supporters
    Question for people who know more about US politics than me: why exactly is KH so supposedly unpopular? From what I’ve seen of her she’s OK, a bit bland maybe, certainly not a particularly divisive personality. Contrast with someone like JD Vance, or on the Dem side AOC.
    She's tied to Biden
    She's black and female.
    I don't think being the first female president has the same significance as Obama being the first Black president, i.e. I doubt it makes a difference
    I think it does have an effect, it’s just whether the effect outweighs others (which I doubt).

    There is definitely a demographic in the US who love the thought of voting for a female president. They were very strongly behind Hillary for that reason. But it wasn’t enough to get her over the line.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Who - if anybody - is the straight working-class white male Democratic governor who can balance the ticket? I don't see the South going for Harris/Buttigieg, Newsom is a California liberal so too posh and libby, Whitmer is a woman. How about Roy Cooper? (D-North Carolina)?

    Have any governors endorsed her yet, or are the all on team Obama and wanting to avoid a coronation?
    Half of them probably think they can be nominee and are more electable than her
    And the other half know they are…
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,392
    There has been much speculation about why former President Barack Obama did not endorse Kamala Harris in his statement. A person familiar with his thinking says he is following the same policy of neutrality he adopted in the 2020 Democratic primaries and will stand ready to “help unite the party once we have a nominee.”

    NY Times
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,955
    I'll try again: Is Kamala Harris a black woman? No.

    Through her Jamaican father she is approximately one-fourth black. Calling her black is like me claiming to be Danish because one of my grandmothers was from Denmark.

    She's a mixed-race woman, who came out of the scandal-plagued California Democratic Party.

    Was she part of those scandals? Judge for yourself: "In November 2014, state and federal agents raided the CPUC 's offices in a joint investigation of potential criminal activities related to the permanent closure and settlements proceedings of SONGS. Kamala Harris. California's attorney gneral at the time. either killed or stalled the investigation. The CPUC refused to turn oversixty or more emails from Governor Brown's office."
    source: Michael Shellenberger's "Apocalypse Never", p. 214.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 433

    There has been much speculation about why former President Barack Obama did not endorse Kamala Harris in his statement. A person familiar with his thinking says he is following the same policy of neutrality he adopted in the 2020 Democratic primaries and will stand ready to “help unite the party once we have a nominee.”

    NY Times

    So that tells us that this wasn't particularly orchestrated.
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 542

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Joe Biden is one of the handful of truly great presidents in American history and a patriot beyond measure. We Democrats will be unified and focused behind our next President, Kamala Harris, to keep their great success going and to defeat the autocrats, theocrats and plutocrats.
    https://x.com/jamie_raskin/status/1815117782775951597

    Such fawning won't help.

    He doesn't have the support to win again. No mythologising will help his potential successor.

    And electorally, it shouldn't be Kamela. Newsom stands a chance. She doesn't.
    Newsom won't win either. I think his appeal is too coastal, will be a rerun of the Al Gore campaign in 2000 which as we know didn't win and many of the swing states have trended to the right since then. Newsom will likely run up huge margins in California, Washington, New York and other liberal parts of the nation but lose swing states.
    Why are you right wingers so convinced Trump will walk it?

    You may of course be correct, nonetheless Trump appears to me to be such a flawed candidate anything can happen now Sleepy Joe is out of the picture.
    I'm a right winger, well a One Nation Tory anyway (if that's still allowed), and I'm betting huge on Harris at present. I'm really not sure who will win, but having backed at longer odds I still think she is value so am reluctant to trade out.
This discussion has been closed.