Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Has anyone suggested the aggressive ultra extremist method to save the library?
AKA people using it?
We ARE using it. The council budget keeps getting cut year on year as their costs on statutory services goes up. They're faced with the need to provide library services but not being able to afford to switch the lights on. Our library is down to 6 hours a week as it is.
Officers (its always the officers) genuinely asking us if there are other places that could be used to put a library. There are not. The fightback is by pushing them to provide the statutory services that have already been cut such as youth services, and put them into the building.
A bit of cash spent - to replace all the florescent lights with LEDs and replace the storage heaters with energy efficient heat pump - would slash operating costs. But they don't have the money to invest in that either.
This isn't even party political at a micro scale - every council is slashing services because the system itself is broken. Which is why I am running for election - we need to make a more fundamental change than tinkering around the edges. What legacy are we bequeathing to my kids when everything we once had it being scrapped because we can't afford it? How can we afford not to have a bus service or libraries or youth work or public toilets or a GP surgery with GPs in it or the police?
Bloody Tories know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
No reversal of Brexit in Starmer's lifetime is simply realistic. There is no way the EU will accept an application to rejoin on any terms that the UK could consider.
So we continue to do deals selling sheep to Australia and poodles to South Africa
The majority size is going to be astonishing for Labour's vote share. I mean I know 2005 was the epitome of that previously but this will take it to another level.
I’m going to treat myself to a little bottle of supermarket whisky for tonights celebrations before Keith taxes my income into oblivion. Any suggestions?
If it's not a single malt, then Famous Grouse perhaps.
The telegraph have an article saying Reform will win 13 seats.
If that's the case who is going to train those MPs to know what to do - i.e. how to run their office and provide support to their constituents...
I doubt they will win that many. Also if Nigel does take Clacton there has to be a reasonable chance that he’s found in breach of Parliamentary rules triggering a recall effort before long.
It is interesting that the Welsh labour government is to introduce a law in the Senedd to make it illegal to lie
There will be few if any politicians left !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
citation needed
No citation possible. The "Welsh labour government" have not done this - its every other party forcing it through. Labour opposed it
Labour are opposed to Plaids version, so are bringing forward their own
A bill backed by your Conservatives and opposed by Labour. Only you could find a way to spin that as something being done by the Welsh labour government.
You are talking nonsense and maybe you will believe the Guardian
Tue 2 Jul 2024 21.06 BST
Welsh government commits to making lying in politics illegal Labour administration says ‘globally pioneering’ legislation will be brought in before next Senedd elections in 2026
The Labour-led Welsh government has committed to introduce “globally pioneering” legislation that would in effect make lying in politics there illegal.
Members of the Senedd described it as a historic moment that would combat the “existential threat” that lying in politics poses to democracy.
After a passionate and dramatic debate in the Welsh parliament on Tuesday evening, the government’s counsel general, Mick Antoniw, said the legislation would be introduced before the next Welsh elections in two years’ time.
He said: “The Welsh government will bring forward legislation before 2026 for the disqualification of members and candidates found guilty of deliberate deception through an independent judicial process.”
None of that quote says that the WG originated the bill. Simply that it is being brought in as a result of a vote in the Senedd.
You're doing the Welsh equivalent of claiming that the SNP government brought in the bill for the Edinburgh trams.
Isn't attempting to assign responsibility for the trams regraded as criminal slander?
Defamation, it's called in Scotland - if it were, then OGH would have been hearing from the lawyers long ago, given how many PBers are convinced the trams were a SNP idea. AQs opposed to having it forced on them by all the other parties. Minority government, remember, despite the equally frequent PBcanard.
Mostly off topic but my daughter's school has this year moved their annual sports day back from September (which they switched to during Covid) to July.
By a weird coincidence this means that their sports day is today, while the last one was on the day of Liz Truss/Kwasi Kwarteng's minibudget.
Quite an amusing two political dates to top and tail with.
I’m going to treat myself to a little bottle of supermarket whisky for tonights celebrations before Keith taxes my income into oblivion. Any suggestions?
If it's not a single malt, then Famous Grouse perhaps.
Black Label is drinkable
My go-to when I still drank. Can't go wrong with it; better than single malts in the same bracket.
Like getting an excellent crement or cava for the same price as a bargain basement hydrochloric champers.
Are the Greens really going to get 9% . I just can’t see it myself .
Unexpected Green voters are everywhere. My daughter explained the reason to me yesterday: tuition fees. Makes perfect sense really. All the other parties are charging half a generation £50k plus to start adulthood. The Green Party isn't.
Personally I think the Greens are a binch of incoherent batshit crazy extreme culture warriors. But maybe £50k plus is rather more important to people.
There are normal people too. Like, er me, and double-er, Dura Ace. Oh, and triple-er - BJO.
I’m going to treat myself to a little bottle of supermarket whisky for tonights celebrations before Keith taxes my income into oblivion. Any suggestions?
If it's not a single malt, then Famous Grouse perhaps.
Black Label is drinkable
Morning, Malky! Still sunny if windy here on the east side.
I'm calling bullsh1t on SNP on 6%... they didn't quite get 4% in 2019 and that equated to 45% in Scotland. So they'd need to be on at least two-thirds of the vote north of the border!
It does suggest that IPSOS might be picking up a late Lab->SNP swing in Scotland though.
The recent Scotland-only poll indicated SNP support stable with Labour dipping, but a slight uptick for Tories and Libs. This is not necessarily good news for SNP as it could reflect unionist tactical voting. But tbh its all MOE.
I’m going to treat myself to a little bottle of supermarket whisky for tonights celebrations before Keith taxes my income into oblivion. Any suggestions?
If it's not a single malt, then Famous Grouse perhaps.
Black Label is drinkable
My go-to when I still drank. Can't go wrong with it; better than single malts in the same bracket.
Like getting an excellent crement or cava for the same price as a bargain basement hydrochloric champers.
Grouse is my family equivalent - but I suddenly realise I don't know if they sell it to the hordes beyond the southern wall.
Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley 🚨 @IpsosUK FINAL CALL: Labour lead at 18 / Tories face historic defeat / Lab share drops in final week. 🚨
Labour 37% (-5) Conservatives 19% (nc) Reform UK 15% (nc) Lib Dems 11% (nc) Greens 9% (+2)
No reversal of Brexit in Keir's lifetime. Incredible when over 60% of the country now want it. Perhaps he really will be as tone deaf as some have predicted
If you ask the Corbynites, all Starmer's ever done is break promises.
We just need to be patient. They'll go to the EU to try and ameliorate the damage. Maybe they'll have some successes. But the inexorable desire of a majority those under 60 to get back what they've lost, and to get back for their kids, will become too electorally powerful to ignore. It'll take some time, and more wasted years, but we'll get there.
Brexit is forever sullied with the last 14 years. Starmer is nothing if not pragmatic.
Are the Greens really going to get 9% . I just can’t see it myself .
Unexpected Green voters are everywhere. My daughter explained the reason to me yesterday: tuition fees. Makes perfect sense really. All the other parties are charging half a generation £50k plus to start adulthood. The Green Party isn't.
Personally I think the Greens are a binch of incoherent batshit crazy extreme culture warriors. But maybe £50k plus is rather more important to people.
There are normal people too. Like, er me, and double-er, Dura Ace. Oh, and triple-er - BJO.
OK, point taken. Any other Green PBers?
I've gone back to voting for losers - my last two GE votes were tactical for the LDs, but because Daisy is going to hold her seat easily, I want to make sure I contribute to our increase in short money.
@Cookie would you vote to pay 9% more tax? Under a proper PR system I'd expect the big winners to be Greens, PC and Reform, big losers Labour and Conservatives with SNP and LDs flat.
I’m going to treat myself to a little bottle of supermarket whisky for tonights celebrations before Keith taxes my income into oblivion. Any suggestions?
If it's not a single malt, then Famous Grouse perhaps.
Black Label is drinkable
Morning, Malky! Still sunny if windy here on the east side.
Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Yes, I heard that Aberdeenshire Council cuts are causing a lot of upset. Do you think it will affect how people vote? BTW Good luck!
Knobhead SNP are trying to make capital of it. Then when its pointed out some of the cuts are directly from their government they try and claim they are against the cuts whilst imploring everyone to vote for the people making the cuts to protest agaist the cuts.
It isn't party political though. Its Tory/LD in the shire and SNP/LD in the city. Both councils are broke due to Holyrood cuts and both are making terrible cuts. The issue is a lack of cash from government. The SNP say INDEPENDENCE as the cure. But Scotland gets more cash per head than any other part of the UK. The money is there, what are they wasting it on?
The whole funding model for local government is broken. That is the problem. Across the whole UK. Government has decided that it can be cut to the bone so that Tories can then blame the council if its Labour and deflect if its Tory. Wazzocks.
I'm calling bullsh1t on SNP on 6%... they didn't quite get 4% in 2019 and that equated to 45% in Scotland. So they'd need to be on at least two-thirds of the vote north of the border!
It does suggest that IPSOS might be picking up a late Lab->SNP swing in Scotland though.
Savanta, Opinium and We Think had them on 2% on basically the same polling dates, with Survation 3% and Norstat 4%.
It's just that GB-wide polls are useless on SNP share. The margin of error is enormous as they tend to be asking fewer than 100 people in Scotland, and there is no balancing within that sample (the adjustment will be GB-wide, not of subsamples).
I just find it amusing when a poll comes up with a mad SNP number - if I were them, I'd not have put it in the tweet as it undermines the overall credibility - hide it in the tables!
I’m going to treat myself to a little bottle of supermarket whisky for tonights celebrations before Keith taxes my income into oblivion. Any suggestions?
If it's not a single malt, then Famous Grouse perhaps.
Black Label is drinkable
Morning, Malky! Still sunny if windy here on the east side.
I'm sticking to beer and popcorn and black coffee later on.
Laura Kuennsberg is “hearing of a surprise late swing to the Tories, with hung parliament now in sight”.
Perhaps those of us who are keen on reversing Brexit think his offer of not reversing it in his lifetime was rather off putting
And perhaps if Labour win a landslide majority those of you who obsess over Brexit are politically insignificant then?
Went down like a bucket of sick on the doorsteps of affirmed supporters last night, it will be apparent what effect it has in 18 hours. No one wants to obsess about Brexit apart from those misguided people who wanted it, it just f**ks up significant aspects of our lives, As it was obvious it would do. Sorry, I forgot, "Big Thanks",
Isn’t the whole point of Starmer that he only promises what he can deliver? I believe it is - and I actually admire him for that. Its one reason I will be eagerly voting for him before I emigrate
And, whatever your views, Rejoin is not practical politics. It’s just not going to happen. Think about everything that has to fall into place
In Britain you’d need five years of solid polls clamouring for rejoin. These polls would have to show acceptance of the euro, free movement, everything. No pm will risk a vote they might lose
So the government that offers the poll will also have to be popular. And Britain will have to be suffering AT THE SAME TIME - so people want this huge change. Think about THAT
Then you need the EU to agree. Negotiations could take a decade. At any time a veto could happen from any country. Spain might demand Gibraltar. On and on
It’s absurd and it is never going to happen - no one will want to expend the political capital and take the endless risk - Sir Kir Royale Starmer is simply telling you the truth. Sorry
Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley 🚨 @IpsosUK FINAL CALL: Labour lead at 18 / Tories face historic defeat / Lab share drops in final week. 🚨
Labour 37% (-5) Conservatives 19% (nc) Reform UK 15% (nc) Lib Dems 11% (nc) Greens 9% (+2)
No reversal of Brexit in Keir's lifetime. Incredible when over 60% of the country now want it. Perhaps he really will be as tone deaf as some have predicted
If you ask the Corbynites, all Starmer's ever done is break promises.
We just need to be patient. They'll go to the EU to try and ameliorate the damage. Maybe they'll have some successes. But the inexorable desire of a majority those under 60 to get back what they've lost, and to get back for their kids, will become too electorally powerful to ignore. It'll take some time, and more wasted years, but we'll get there.
Brexit is forever sullied with the last 14 years. Starmer is nothing if not pragmatic.
Given the state of French and German domestic politics at the moment, a cautious approach is advisable
No reversal of Brexit in Starmer's lifetime is simply realistic. There is no way the EU will accept an application to rejoin on any terms that the UK could consider.
So we continue to do deals selling sheep to Australia and poodles to South Africa
You need to see how Starmer handles the meeting in London of Macron's outer EU grouping proposals as that is likely to be the nearest we get to a good relationship with EU both in trading and cooperation whilst not being a member
If the Greens get anywhere near the 7% they seem to be averaging in polls that will be a huge turnup for the books. They never get more than about 3% at generals. On the other side if Reform get anything like mid to high teens then we will surely have the highest combined vote share for angry edge-case parties.
In this context, and with major two party votes collapsing to the lowest ever, a Lib Dem vote share of 11 or 12% really isn't very impressive. The numbers suggest a degree of revolutionary ferment out there which I'd really not picked up before the campaign. It seemed rather that the public were keen on a period of no-drama competent governance after the chaos of the last 7 years. It's also rather out of kilter with polling on the main issues: economy, inflation, NHS etc. with immigration fairly high but not at the top, and topics like Gaza way down.
Are the Greens really going to get 9% . I just can’t see it myself .
Unexpected Green voters are everywhere. My daughter explained the reason to me yesterday: tuition fees. Makes perfect sense really. All the other parties are charging half a generation £50k plus to start adulthood. The Green Party isn't.
Personally I think the Greens are a binch of incoherent batshit crazy extreme culture warriors. But maybe £50k plus is rather more important to people.
There are normal people too. Like, er me, and double-er, Dura Ace. Oh, and triple-er - BJO.
OK, point taken. Any other Green PBers?
I'm just off with the dog to cast a tactical Green
Where do you intend to cast the poor unfortunate ?
Maybe a new euphemism for what dog owners pick up in a green bag?
Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley 🚨 @IpsosUK FINAL CALL: Labour lead at 18 / Tories face historic defeat / Lab share drops in final week. 🚨
Labour 37% (-5) Conservatives 19% (nc) Reform UK 15% (nc) Lib Dems 11% (nc) Greens 9% (+2)
EC (I know) gives:
Con 69 Lab 462 LD 71 Ref 7 Green 3 SNP 15 PC 3 Others 20
on that Ipsos.
Incredible how routine the sub-20s are for then Tories. I still feel they are being somehow understated, but am running out of evidential basis for it.
The only pollsters who put the Tories below 20% in their final polls are: Ipsos People Polling Lord Ashcroft So there's a definite firming up of Tory support in the closing stages.
Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Has anyone suggested the aggressive ultra extremist method to save the library?
AKA people using it?
We ARE using it. The council budget keeps getting cut year on year as their costs on statutory services goes up. They're faced with the need to provide library services but not being able to afford to switch the lights on. Our library is down to 6 hours a week as it is.
Officers (its always the officers) genuinely asking us if there are other places that could be used to put a library. There are not. The fightback is by pushing them to provide the statutory services that have already been cut such as youth services, and put them into the building.
A bit of cash spent - to replace all the florescent lights with LEDs and replace the storage heaters with energy efficient heat pump - would slash operating costs. But they don't have the money to invest in that either.
This isn't even party political at a micro scale - every council is slashing services because the system itself is broken. Which is why I am running for election - we need to make a more fundamental change than tinkering around the edges. What legacy are we bequeathing to my kids when everything we once had it being scrapped because we can't afford it? How can we afford not to have a bus service or libraries or youth work or public toilets or a GP surgery with GPs in it or the police?
Bloody Tories know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
Apparently true of SNPers too. Council funding is devolved. Just not a priority at Holyrood.
Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Yes, I heard that Aberdeenshire Council cuts are causing a lot of upset. Do you think it will affect how people vote? BTW Good luck!
Library fact: did you know when volunteers step in to run libraries on behalf of local authorities, they no longer have to pay into the PLR (Public Lending Right pool) and so authors lose any income from borrowed books.
Average author earnings dropped 11% in real terms between 2019 and 2021 and that was within a drop of 60% in real terms since 2006.
Eeek! What about the ebooks? I'm now an avid user of Libby, am I impoverishing authors?
"Emma Raducanu says she did not know general election vote was on Thursday
At a press conference, Raducanu was asked if she would vote before practising on Thursday, and if she would keep an eye on the general election in the evening. “No,” she replied, smiling. “I think I’ll have a lie-in, then I’ll come to practise.
“I didn’t even know it was tomorrow, to be honest! Thanks for letting me know.”"
If the Greens get anywhere near the 7% they seem to be averaging in polls that will be a huge turnup for the books. They never get more than about 3% at generals. On the other side if Reform get anything like mid to high teens then we will surely have the highest combined vote share for angry edge-case parties.
In this context, and with major two party votes collapsing to the lowest ever, a Lib Dem vote share of 11 or 12% really isn't very impressive. The numbers suggest a degree of revolutionary ferment out there which I'd really not picked up before the campaign. It seemed rather that the public were keen on a period of no-drama competent governance after the chaos of the last 7 years. It's also rather out of kilter with polling on the main issues: economy, inflation, NHS etc. with immigration fairly high but not at the top, and topics like Gaza way down.
You’ve reminded me I’ve got to take a large root vegetable to the South African rugby training camp this afternoon, after I lunch at the Groucho
Its a chore but it’s also a massive turnip for the Boks
Trying to reply to someone and vanilla's gone mental - telling me the body of the post on 1 character too short and I cannot sort it - so this post is the probably the fruitless attempt at clearing whatever gremlin has infected my tech...
If the post you're replying to has the less than symbol in it, then Vanilla doesn't like that. Oddly enough its OK to post it in your own post, but not to quote it.
If that's the glitch, I typically replace the symbol with the words less than, dislike changing what someone else has written but it doesn't change the meaning and simply means Vanilla doesn't mistake what they wrote for code.
Good point. Sorry that may have been my original post.
Are the Greens really going to get 9% . I just can’t see it myself .
Unexpected Green voters are everywhere. My daughter explained the reason to me yesterday: tuition fees. Makes perfect sense really. All the other parties are charging half a generation £50k plus to start adulthood. The Green Party isn't.
Personally I think the Greens are a binch of incoherent batshit crazy extreme culture warriors. But maybe £50k plus is rather more important to people.
There are normal people too. Like, er me, and double-er, Dura Ace. Oh, and triple-er - BJO.
OK, point taken. Any other Green PBers?
My eco-authoritarian wife. But I persuaded her to vote Labour to get rid of Sir Philip Davies and help him win his bet.
Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Yes, I heard that Aberdeenshire Council cuts are causing a lot of upset. Do you think it will affect how people vote? BTW Good luck!
Library fact: did you know when volunteers step in to run libraries on behalf of local authorities, they no longer have to pay into the PLR (Public Lending Right pool) and so authors lose any income from borrowed books.
Average author earnings dropped 11% in real terms between 2019 and 2021 and that was within a drop of 60% in real terms since 2006.
Eeek! What about the ebooks? I'm now an avid user of Libby, am I impoverishing authors?
"Emma Raducanu says she did not know general election vote was on Thursday
At a press conference, Raducanu was asked if she would vote before practising on Thursday, and if she would keep an eye on the general election in the evening. “No,” she replied, smiling. “I think I’ll have a lie-in, then I’ll come to practise.
“I didn’t even know it was tomorrow, to be honest! Thanks for letting me know.”"
Are the Greens really going to get 9% . I just can’t see it myself .
Unexpected Green voters are everywhere. My daughter explained the reason to me yesterday: tuition fees. Makes perfect sense really. All the other parties are charging half a generation £50k plus to start adulthood. The Green Party isn't.
Personally I think the Greens are a binch of incoherent batshit crazy extreme culture warriors. But maybe £50k plus is rather more important to people.
There are normal people too. Like, er me, and double-er, Dura Ace. Oh, and triple-er - BJO.
OK, point taken. Any other Green PBers?
I've gone back to voting for losers - my last two GE votes were tactical for the LDs, but because Daisy is going to hold her seat easily, I want to make sure I contribute to our increase in short money.
@Cookie would you vote to pay 9% more tax? Under a proper PR system I'd expect the big winners to be Greens, PC and Reform, big losers Labour and Conservatives with SNP and LDs flat.
I saw that polling about voters who would say they'd they be happy to pay more in tax if they knew it went to the NHS etc. It was a pleasant read to see that the idea we are all individuals fighting over resources and there is no such thing as society is more pessimistic than what most people actually feel.
I do feel that we as a body politic could learn something from our Scandi neighbours - it often seems like they view taxation for services as a baseline good and have been less infected by the notion that "scroungers" are "taking advantage" of the system. As someone who earns, after tax, roughly £2k a month - seeing that go down by around £100 a month for the safety of knowing the investment will go into NHS, public transport, public housing, sustainable energy and infrastructure etc. would be a no brainer for me.
Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Yes, I heard that Aberdeenshire Council cuts are causing a lot of upset. Do you think it will affect how people vote? BTW Good luck!
Knobhead SNP are trying to make capital of it. Then when its pointed out some of the cuts are directly from their government they try and claim they are against the cuts whilst imploring everyone to vote for the people making the cuts to protest agaist the cuts.
It isn't party political though. Its Tory/LD in the shire and SNP/LD in the city. Both councils are broke due to Holyrood cuts and both are making terrible cuts. The issue is a lack of cash from government. The SNP say INDEPENDENCE as the cure. But Scotland gets more cash per head than any other part of the UK. The money is there, what are they wasting it on?
The whole funding model for local government is broken. That is the problem. Across the whole UK. Government has decided that it can be cut to the bone so that Tories can then blame the council if its Labour and deflect if its Tory. Wazzocks.
On detail - does local gov funding (or lack of funding) in England get reflected in Barnet Consequentials? If so I assume it is not hypothecated.
Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Yes, I heard that Aberdeenshire Council cuts are causing a lot of upset. Do you think it will affect how people vote? BTW Good luck!
Knobhead SNP are trying to make capital of it. Then when its pointed out some of the cuts are directly from their government they try and claim they are against the cuts whilst imploring everyone to vote for the people making the cuts to protest agaist the cuts.
It isn't party political though. Its Tory/LD in the shire and SNP/LD in the city. Both councils are broke due to Holyrood cuts and both are making terrible cuts. The issue is a lack of cash from government. The SNP say INDEPENDENCE as the cure. But Scotland gets more cash per head than any other part of the UK. The money is there, what are they wasting it on?
The whole funding model for local government is broken. That is the problem. Across the whole UK. Government has decided that it can be cut to the bone so that Tories can then blame the council if its Labour and deflect if its Tory. Wazzocks.
A political wheeze which started during Thatcher's time, and carried on by pretty well every government since.
If the Greens get anywhere near the 7% they seem to be averaging in polls that will be a huge turnup for the books. They never get more than about 3% at generals. On the other side if Reform get anything like mid to high teens then we will surely have the highest combined vote share for angry edge-case parties.
In this context, and with major two party votes collapsing to the lowest ever, a Lib Dem vote share of 11 or 12% really isn't very impressive. The numbers suggest a degree of revolutionary ferment out there which I'd really not picked up before the campaign. It seemed rather that the public were keen on a period of no-drama competent governance after the chaos of the last 7 years. It's also rather out of kilter with polling on the main issues: economy, inflation, NHS etc. with immigration fairly high but not at the top, and topics like Gaza way down.
You’ve reminded me I’ve got to take a large root vegetable to the South African rugby training camp this afternoon, after I lunch at the Groucho
Its a chore but it’s also a massive turnip for the Boks
Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Has anyone suggested the aggressive ultra extremist method to save the library?
AKA people using it?
We ARE using it. The council budget keeps getting cut year on year as their costs on statutory services goes up. They're faced with the need to provide library services but not being able to afford to switch the lights on. Our library is down to 6 hours a week as it is.
Officers (its always the officers) genuinely asking us if there are other places that could be used to put a library. There are not. The fightback is by pushing them to provide the statutory services that have already been cut such as youth services, and put them into the building.
A bit of cash spent - to replace all the florescent lights with LEDs and replace the storage heaters with energy efficient heat pump - would slash operating costs. But they don't have the money to invest in that either.
This isn't even party political at a micro scale - every council is slashing services because the system itself is broken. Which is why I am running for election - we need to make a more fundamental change than tinkering around the edges. What legacy are we bequeathing to my kids when everything we once had it being scrapped because we can't afford it? How can we afford not to have a bus service or libraries or youth work or public toilets or a GP surgery with GPs in it or the police?
Bloody Tories know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
Yup - per capita central funding has dropped circa 20% in real terms in the 14 years of Conservative rule. And one assumes demands for council spending (from aging population, etc.) has only increased. Around 40 odd per cent of households with at least one person working are in poverty. Nearly half of children in families with three kids or more are in poverty.
To be sure there are positive sides of the ledger (pensioner poverty has fallen under the Conservatives). But, they are pretty few and far between (the FT weekend did a page of charts a few weeks ago that starkly demonstrated this).
Not sure we’ll get much better from tomorrow. But, I just hope that we get leadership that stops trying to distract us with chat about a “culture war” and actually starts trying to fix the big things that are failing.
Mostly off topic but my daughter's school has this year moved their annual sports day back from September (which they switched to during Covid) to July.
By a weird coincidence this means that their sports day is today, while the last one was on the day of Liz Truss/Kwasi Kwarteng's minibudget.
Quite an amusing two political dates to top and tail with.
A friend's school did athletics only on its annual sports day. One year a kid knocked 10 seconds off the school half mile record, which was written off as a stopwatch operator error. A couple of years later, he followed up with a gold medal at the Los Angeles Olympics. I shall watch out for your daughter in Paris in a month's time.
Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Yes, I heard that Aberdeenshire Council cuts are causing a lot of upset. Do you think it will affect how people vote? BTW Good luck!
Knobhead SNP are trying to make capital of it. Then when its pointed out some of the cuts are directly from their government they try and claim they are against the cuts whilst imploring everyone to vote for the people making the cuts to protest agaist the cuts.
It isn't party political though. Its Tory/LD in the shire and SNP/LD in the city. Both councils are broke due to Holyrood cuts and both are making terrible cuts. The issue is a lack of cash from government. The SNP say INDEPENDENCE as the cure. But Scotland gets more cash per head than any other part of the UK. The money is there, what are they wasting it on?
The whole funding model for local government is broken. That is the problem. Across the whole UK. Government has decided that it can be cut to the bone so that Tories can then blame the council if its Labour and deflect if its Tory. Wazzocks.
On detail - does local gov funding (or lack of funding) in England get reflected in Barnet Consequentials? If so I assume it is not hypothecated.
Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Yes, I heard that Aberdeenshire Council cuts are causing a lot of upset. Do you think it will affect how people vote? BTW Good luck!
Library fact: did you know when volunteers step in to run libraries on behalf of local authorities, they no longer have to pay into the PLR (Public Lending Right pool) and so authors lose any income from borrowed books.
Average author earnings dropped 11% in real terms between 2019 and 2021 and that was within a drop of 60% in real terms since 2006.
Eeek! What about the ebooks? I'm now an avid user of Libby, am I impoverishing authors?
YES
Absolutely. My other half gets a good slug from the PLR every year. It's a lifeline for most authors.
Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Yes, I heard that Aberdeenshire Council cuts are causing a lot of upset. Do you think it will affect how people vote? BTW Good luck!
Knobhead SNP are trying to make capital of it. Then when its pointed out some of the cuts are directly from their government they try and claim they are against the cuts whilst imploring everyone to vote for the people making the cuts to protest agaist the cuts.
It isn't party political though. Its Tory/LD in the shire and SNP/LD in the city. Both councils are broke due to Holyrood cuts and both are making terrible cuts. The issue is a lack of cash from government. The SNP say INDEPENDENCE as the cure. But Scotland gets more cash per head than any other part of the UK. The money is there, what are they wasting it on?
The whole funding model for local government is broken. That is the problem. Across the whole UK. Government has decided that it can be cut to the bone so that Tories can then blame the council if its Labour and deflect if its Tory. Wazzocks.
'Knobhead SNP are trying to make capital of it'
'It isn't party political though'
'The SNP say INDEPENDENCE as the cure. But Scotland gets more cash per head than any other part of the UK. The money is there, what are they wasting it on?'
For today and tomorrow I am lifting the one photo a day limit but on the following conditions.
1) Only one photo per post
2) The extra photo allowance must be election related. So no photos of what you had for lunch.
I think the one per day policy has been really good, and we get a number of very interesting piccies.
Especially from ... (That's enough. Ed)
I agree. It makes you choose carefully - it’s a plus. However I would raise the limit to two photos per person per day. So you can do one careful political photo - but then you still have a chance for the random photo that you saw just that moment that really illustrates a point - a sight, a graph, an ironic meta-badger attacking Caroline Lucas
If the Greens get anywhere near the 7% they seem to be averaging in polls that will be a huge turnup for the books. They never get more than about 3% at generals. On the other side if Reform get anything like mid to high teens then we will surely have the highest combined vote share for angry edge-case parties.
In this context, and with major two party votes collapsing to the lowest ever, a Lib Dem vote share of 11 or 12% really isn't very impressive. The numbers suggest a degree of revolutionary ferment out there which I'd really not picked up before the campaign. It seemed rather that the public were keen on a period of no-drama competent governance after the chaos of the last 7 years. It's also rather out of kilter with polling on the main issues: economy, inflation, NHS etc. with immigration fairly high but not at the top, and topics like Gaza way down.
I mean, people want their material needs met - that's why people worry about the economy and inflation and the NHS. Labour are basically promising more of the same, which people don't want. Reform are saying the reason material needs aren't being met is because of immigrants; the Greens argue it's because of lack of investment. I don't think it's a surprise then to see more voters opting for parties that claim to try to tackle the issues.
Again, although the Labour lead has dropped it doesn’t really imply it’s down to anything Labour has done.
I'm not sure about that. They're beginning to look like a pretty empty vessel. They're now depending 100% on voters loathing the Tories enough to make it worthwhile voting.
These Suella Braverman photos are going to have their work cutout.
can anyone suggest a method of getting BBC-TV coverage overnight in Germany? I have no traditional TV set, just online streaming and I have no VPN. Well I do but a free one where where I can't specify which country I'm in. BBC i-Player is only available in the UK.
I usually just listen to radio for UK news (no location block) and occasionally stream German TV for visual news. But visual coverage of the election would be so much better.
"Emma Raducanu says she did not know general election vote was on Thursday
At a press conference, Raducanu was asked if she would vote before practising on Thursday, and if she would keep an eye on the general election in the evening. “No,” she replied, smiling. “I think I’ll have a lie-in, then I’ll come to practise.
“I didn’t even know it was tomorrow, to be honest! Thanks for letting me know.”"
I know she's Bromley but I could imagine her living here:
Ennismore Garden Mews in the City of Westminster ward of Knightsbridge and Belgravia (example postcode SW7 1AW). Geographically it is situated in the middle of Knightsbridge, near to both Harrods and the Royal Albert Hall."
Again, although the Labour lead has dropped it doesn’t really imply it’s down to anything Labour has done.
I'm not sure about that. They're beginning to look like a pretty empty vessel. They're now depending 100% on voters loathing the Tories enough to make it worthwhile voting.
These Suella Braverman photos are going to have their work cutout.
How do you explain SKS's ratings improving throughout the campaign?
The Eurozone construction sector is stuck in a recession with no clear path to recovery. The HCOB PMI for June fell to 41.8. The setbacks in the three largest economies in the zone—Germany, France, and Italy—have been particularly severe this month. Subsector activity shows that residential construction remains the weakest, though there was a slight softening in the pace of decline compared to the previous month. The most significant negative correction from May occurred in civil engineering activity.
Continued growth of the UK construction sector in June meant that the sector has recorded sustained expansion throughout the second quarter of the year. While there were signs of a slowdown in the latest survey period, most notably around housing activity, firms indicated that a slowdown in new order growth was in part related to election uncertainty. We may therefore see trends improve once the election period comes to an end.
Moreover, confidence in the year ahead outlook remained strong and firms increased employment to the largest extent in ten months.
In terms of inflation, there remains little sign of cost pressures picking up to any great extent, encouraging firms to expand purchasing activity. Supply-chain conditions also remained favourable.
The great EuroZone construction depression is something which likely connects to other areas of socioeconomic malaise and political disfunction.
can anyone suggest a method of getting BBC-TV coverage overnight in Germany? I have no traditional TV set, just online streaming and I have no VPN. Well I do but a free one where where I can't specify which country I'm in. BBC i-Player is only available in the UK.
I usually just listen to radio for UK news (no location block) and occasionally stream German TV for visual news. But visual coverage of the election would be so much better.
Any suggestions would be great. Thanks.
I suggest you pay for a proper VPN. Most - like NORDVPN - will actually offer you a free trial which you can cancel, if you are determined to be Helmut Scrooge
A long queue out the door, never seen it so brisk. The woman behind me was debating how best to defeat the Tory and hadn't made up her mind when it got to my turn to go in.
Ladbrokes now have the LDs in to evens; Con still just holding on to favoritism at 8/13. Those who followed my advice should now lay off if they have not already done so.
"Emma Raducanu says she did not know general election vote was on Thursday
At a press conference, Raducanu was asked if she would vote before practising on Thursday, and if she would keep an eye on the general election in the evening. “No,” she replied, smiling. “I think I’ll have a lie-in, then I’ll come to practise.
“I didn’t even know it was tomorrow, to be honest! Thanks for letting me know.”"
Nah she is clearly Tory as fuck. The fact she is saying nowt is indicative of a wider trend.
Romanian father - surely a remainer?
There was a funny video which I can't now find on YouTube, of a Romanian television interview after the US Open. The interviewer asked a question, in Romanian, which the interpreter translated to English for Raducanu. But Emma answered in Romanian, and the whole thing descended into farce as the interpreter tried to keep up.
A long queue out the door, never seen it so brisk. The woman behind me was debating how best to defeat the Tory and hadn't made up her mind when it got to my turn to go in.
If the Greens get anywhere near the 7% they seem to be averaging in polls that will be a huge turnup for the books. They never get more than about 3% at generals. On the other side if Reform get anything like mid to high teens then we will surely have the highest combined vote share for angry edge-case parties.
In this context, and with major two party votes collapsing to the lowest ever, a Lib Dem vote share of 11 or 12% really isn't very impressive. The numbers suggest a degree of revolutionary ferment out there which I'd really not picked up before the campaign. It seemed rather that the public were keen on a period of no-drama competent governance after the chaos of the last 7 years. It's also rather out of kilter with polling on the main issues: economy, inflation, NHS etc. with immigration fairly high but not at the top, and topics like Gaza way down.
It's clear that Labour has lost votes on its left flank to the Greens, so it would be a surprise if the overall Green vote share was not up. Where it is up is what matters. I suspect that it will mainly be in very safe, big city, Labour seats where, for now at least, it can do little harm. Whether the same voters would stick with the Greens if this election looked close is a different matter.
A long queue out the door, never seen it so brisk. The woman behind me was debating how best to defeat the Tory and hadn't made up her mind when it got to my turn to go in.
Your dog is staring at you with a sullen, resentful expression as if to say: Oh FFS, another photo?
TBF It’s probably the exact expression many pb-ers adopted when I used to post endless photos of lovely drinks in sunny places
If anyone wants edit rights to the spreadsheets, please send me a PM. I'm obviously not going to allow it to everyone to prevent vandalism but I'll trust regulars here.
Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Has anyone suggested the aggressive ultra extremist method to save the library?
AKA people using it?
We ARE using it. The council budget keeps getting cut year on year as their costs on statutory services goes up. They're faced with the need to provide library services but not being able to afford to switch the lights on. Our library is down to 6 hours a week as it is.
Officers (its always the officers) genuinely asking us if there are other places that could be used to put a library. There are not. The fightback is by pushing them to provide the statutory services that have already been cut such as youth services, and put them into the building.
A bit of cash spent - to replace all the florescent lights with LEDs and replace the storage heaters with energy efficient heat pump - would slash operating costs. But they don't have the money to invest in that either.
This isn't even party political at a micro scale - every council is slashing services because the system itself is broken. Which is why I am running for election - we need to make a more fundamental change than tinkering around the edges. What legacy are we bequeathing to my kids when everything we once had it being scrapped because we can't afford it? How can we afford not to have a bus service or libraries or youth work or public toilets or a GP surgery with GPs in it or the police?
Bloody Tories know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
Yup - per capita central funding has dropped circa 20% in real terms in the 14 years of Conservative rule. And one assumes demands for council spending (from aging population, etc.) has only increased. Around 40 odd per cent of households with at least one person working are in poverty. Nearly half of children in families with three kids or more are in poverty.
To be sure there are positive sides of the ledger (pensioner poverty has fallen under the Conservatives). But, they are pretty few and far between (the FT weekend did a page of charts a few weeks ago that starkly demonstrated this).
Not sure we’ll get much better from tomorrow. But, I just hope that we get leadership that stops trying to distract us with chat about a “culture war” and actually starts trying to fix the big things that are failing.
The problem is all the populist "caps" and "freezes" on council tax. In the Western Isles, council tax raises just 9% of the council's total expenditure - it can't really be argued that the Scottish government contribution is not enough.
A long queue out the door, never seen it so brisk. The woman behind me was debating how best to defeat the Tory and hadn't made up her mind when it got to my turn to go in.
No reversal of Brexit in Starmer's lifetime is simply realistic. There is no way the EU will accept an application to rejoin on any terms that the UK could consider.
That Tony Blair thinktank did some brilliant detailed polling on the issue. Even Remainers who wanted to rejoin were against rejoining if it meant Free Movement.
Most people in the UK probably would favour being in the EU if we could pick and choose which bits apply to us, but on that basis we would never have left in the first place. That's a type of EU membership that does not exist and is never likely to be offered to us.
The EU membership debate isn't really about the EU anymore, it's more symbolic than practical, or reflecting the popularity of the current government. Over the decades it has transformed from a practical economic issue to some weird identity and morality debate.
I forgot to tell PB that yesterday I was offered and accepted a Newly Qualified solicitor job at my current firm, starting in September. Career change (which some of you might remember) very nearly complete.
Very late to the party but I'm delighted to hear your good news. I was around in the early days of your career change and it's lovely to be back to hear this. Congratulations and my very best wishes for the future.
Again, although the Labour lead has dropped it doesn’t really imply it’s down to anything Labour has done.
I'm not sure about that. They're beginning to look like a pretty empty vessel. They're now depending 100% on voters loathing the Tories enough to make it worthwhile voting.
These Suella Braverman photos are going to have their work cutout.
A long queue out the door, never seen it so brisk. The woman behind me was debating how best to defeat the Tory and hadn't made up her mind when it got to my turn to go in.
Your dog is staring at you with a sullen, resentful expression as if to say: Oh FFS, another photo?
TBF It’s probably the exact expression many pb-ers adopted when I used to post endless photos of lovely drinks in sunny places
I said that one of the parties might give him a free ball if we went to vote. But after we voted, they didn't.
Some of the Ipsos numbers look weird. The Greens collect 9%, way above their steady, solid, unchanging range of 5% - 7% from other pollsters. Even stranger is the 6% for the SNP ... is this even possible from their limited population base? It's certainly fully double the 3% they unerringly collect again and again from just about every other poll seen throughout this campaign. These 2 parties therefore together are shown to command 15% of the vote, which appears to be about 5% too high on any sensible comparable basis thus far. Just to round things off, the sum percentage total for all the parties listed is 97%, i.e. 3% short. Oh Dear, how and to where has this disappeared, it surely can't simply be wished away as a "rounding error".
Mostly off topic but my daughter's school has this year moved their annual sports day back from September (which they switched to during Covid) to July.
By a weird coincidence this means that their sports day is today, while the last one was on the day of Liz Truss/Kwasi Kwarteng's minibudget.
Quite an amusing two political dates to top and tail with.
A friend's school did athletics only on its annual sports day. One year a kid knocked 10 seconds off the school half mile record, which was written off as a stopwatch operator error. A couple of years later, he followed up with a gold medal at the Los Angeles Olympics. I shall watch out for your daughter in Paris in a month's time.
Did he win Gold in Athletics in 1984? If so he was Daley Thompson or Seb Coe, both of whom had already won Gold in Moscow.
A long queue out the door, never seen it so brisk. The woman behind me was debating how best to defeat the Tory and hadn't made up her mind when it got to my turn to go in.
She should have been told to shut up. No political discussion is allowed inside and immediately around the polling station.
Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Has anyone suggested the aggressive ultra extremist method to save the library?
AKA people using it?
We ARE using it. The council budget keeps getting cut year on year as their costs on statutory services goes up. They're faced with the need to provide library services but not being able to afford to switch the lights on. Our library is down to 6 hours a week as it is.
Officers (its always the officers) genuinely asking us if there are other places that could be used to put a library. There are not. The fightback is by pushing them to provide the statutory services that have already been cut such as youth services, and put them into the building.
A bit of cash spent - to replace all the florescent lights with LEDs and replace the storage heaters with energy efficient heat pump - would slash operating costs. But they don't have the money to invest in that either.
This isn't even party political at a micro scale - every council is slashing services because the system itself is broken. Which is why I am running for election - we need to make a more fundamental change than tinkering around the edges. What legacy are we bequeathing to my kids when everything we once had it being scrapped because we can't afford it? How can we afford not to have a bus service or libraries or youth work or public toilets or a GP surgery with GPs in it or the police?
Bloody Tories know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
Yup - per capita central funding has dropped circa 20% in real terms in the 14 years of Conservative rule. And one assumes demands for council spending (from aging population, etc.) has only increased. Around 40 odd per cent of households with at least one person working are in poverty. Nearly half of children in families with three kids or more are in poverty.
To be sure there are positive sides of the ledger (pensioner poverty has fallen under the Conservatives). But, they are pretty few and far between (the FT weekend did a page of charts a few weeks ago that starkly demonstrated this).
Not sure we’ll get much better from tomorrow. But, I just hope that we get leadership that stops trying to distract us with chat about a “culture war” and actually starts trying to fix the big things that are failing.
The problem is all the populist "caps" and "freezes" on council tax. In the Western Isles, council tax raises just 9% of the council's total expenditure - it can't really be argued that the Scottish government contribution is not enough.
Why can't it be so argued?
The problem is that the overwhelming majority of Council expenditure is on nationally-set statutory issues. Things like care, SEN etc
If the national government is going to decree the expenditure, why should those not come from nation expenses?
If the Greens get anywhere near the 7% they seem to be averaging in polls that will be a huge turnup for the books. They never get more than about 3% at generals. On the other side if Reform get anything like mid to high teens then we will surely have the highest combined vote share for angry edge-case parties.
In this context, and with major two party votes collapsing to the lowest ever, a Lib Dem vote share of 11 or 12% really isn't very impressive. The numbers suggest a degree of revolutionary ferment out there which I'd really not picked up before the campaign. It seemed rather that the public were keen on a period of no-drama competent governance after the chaos of the last 7 years. It's also rather out of kilter with polling on the main issues: economy, inflation, NHS etc. with immigration fairly high but not at the top, and topics like Gaza way down.
It's clear that Labour has lost votes on its left flank to the Greens, so it would be a surprise if the overall Green vote share was not up. Where it is up is what matters. I suspect that it will mainly be in very safe, big city, Labour seats where, for now at least, it can do little harm. Whether the same voters would stick with the Greens if this election looked close is a different matter.
I suspect the Green vote this time may be the most inefficient of all parties winning seats, possibly even more than Reform if the latter manage to bag 6 or 7 of their own. 3 or 4% per seat potentially. Vs more than 10 seats per 1% for Labour.
Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Has anyone suggested the aggressive ultra extremist method to save the library?
AKA people using it?
We ARE using it. The council budget keeps getting cut year on year as their costs on statutory services goes up. They're faced with the need to provide library services but not being able to afford to switch the lights on. Our library is down to 6 hours a week as it is.
Officers (its always the officers) genuinely asking us if there are other places that could be used to put a library. There are not. The fightback is by pushing them to provide the statutory services that have already been cut such as youth services, and put them into the building.
A bit of cash spent - to replace all the florescent lights with LEDs and replace the storage heaters with energy efficient heat pump - would slash operating costs. But they don't have the money to invest in that either.
This isn't even party political at a micro scale - every council is slashing services because the system itself is broken. Which is why I am running for election - we need to make a more fundamental change than tinkering around the edges. What legacy are we bequeathing to my kids when everything we once had it being scrapped because we can't afford it? How can we afford not to have a bus service or libraries or youth work or public toilets or a GP surgery with GPs in it or the police?
Bloody Tories know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
Yup - per capita central funding has dropped circa 20% in real terms in the 14 years of Conservative rule. And one assumes demands for council spending (from aging population, etc.) has only increased. Around 40 odd per cent of households with at least one person working are in poverty. Nearly half of children in families with three kids or more are in poverty.
To be sure there are positive sides of the ledger (pensioner poverty has fallen under the Conservatives). But, they are pretty few and far between (the FT weekend did a page of charts a few weeks ago that starkly demonstrated this).
Not sure we’ll get much better from tomorrow. But, I just hope that we get leadership that stops trying to distract us with chat about a “culture war” and actually starts trying to fix the big things that are failing.
You mean relative poverty on whatever the current definition is.
Not actual poverty.
If all the rich people left the country then 'poverty' would fall but actual poverty would increase.
A long queue out the door, never seen it so brisk. The woman behind me was debating how best to defeat the Tory and hadn't made up her mind when it got to my turn to go in.
Ok, here's my prediction based on roughly where we seem to be with polling:
CON 85 LAB 446 LIB 70 Reform 5 Green 3 SNP 18 PC 3 NI + other 20
I am a bit sceptical of my own prediction to be honest as I can't shake the idea that a ton of silent tories are waking up this morning and deciding they can't bring themselves to vote reform/libdem and the party needs saving from oblivion/socialist superbollocks etc etc
If the Greens get anywhere near the 7% they seem to be averaging in polls that will be a huge turnup for the books. They never get more than about 3% at generals. On the other side if Reform get anything like mid to high teens then we will surely have the highest combined vote share for angry edge-case parties.
In this context, and with major two party votes collapsing to the lowest ever, a Lib Dem vote share of 11 or 12% really isn't very impressive. The numbers suggest a degree of revolutionary ferment out there which I'd really not picked up before the campaign. It seemed rather that the public were keen on a period of no-drama competent governance after the chaos of the last 7 years. It's also rather out of kilter with polling on the main issues: economy, inflation, NHS etc. with immigration fairly high but not at the top, and topics like Gaza way down.
I mean, people want their material needs met - that's why people worry about the economy and inflation and the NHS. Labour are basically promising more of the same, which people don't want. Reform are saying the reason material needs aren't being met is because of immigrants; the Greens argue it's because of lack of investment. I don't think it's a surprise then to see more voters opting for parties that claim to try to tackle the issues.
Yes, absolutely. Plus the overall result is a foregone conclusion so people feel more free to vote for what they actually believe in rather than voting Lab to stop the Cons and vice versa.
Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Has anyone suggested the aggressive ultra extremist method to save the library?
AKA people using it?
We ARE using it. The council budget keeps getting cut year on year as their costs on statutory services goes up. They're faced with the need to provide library services but not being able to afford to switch the lights on. Our library is down to 6 hours a week as it is.
Officers (its always the officers) genuinely asking us if there are other places that could be used to put a library. There are not. The fightback is by pushing them to provide the statutory services that have already been cut such as youth services, and put them into the building.
A bit of cash spent - to replace all the florescent lights with LEDs and replace the storage heaters with energy efficient heat pump - would slash operating costs. But they don't have the money to invest in that either.
This isn't even party political at a micro scale - every council is slashing services because the system itself is broken. Which is why I am running for election - we need to make a more fundamental change than tinkering around the edges. What legacy are we bequeathing to my kids when everything we once had it being scrapped because we can't afford it? How can we afford not to have a bus service or libraries or youth work or public toilets or a GP surgery with GPs in it or the police?
Bloody Tories know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
If the Greens get anywhere near the 7% they seem to be averaging in polls that will be a huge turnup for the books. They never get more than about 3% at generals. On the other side if Reform get anything like mid to high teens then we will surely have the highest combined vote share for angry edge-case parties.
In this context, and with major two party votes collapsing to the lowest ever, a Lib Dem vote share of 11 or 12% really isn't very impressive. The numbers suggest a degree of revolutionary ferment out there which I'd really not picked up before the campaign. It seemed rather that the public were keen on a period of no-drama competent governance after the chaos of the last 7 years. It's also rather out of kilter with polling on the main issues: economy, inflation, NHS etc. with immigration fairly high but not at the top, and topics like Gaza way down.
You’ve reminded me I’ve got to take a large root vegetable to the South African rugby training camp this afternoon, after I lunch at the Groucho
Its a chore but it’s also a massive turnip for the Boks
"Emma Raducanu says she did not know general election vote was on Thursday
At a press conference, Raducanu was asked if she would vote before practising on Thursday, and if she would keep an eye on the general election in the evening. “No,” she replied, smiling. “I think I’ll have a lie-in, then I’ll come to practise.
“I didn’t even know it was tomorrow, to be honest! Thanks for letting me know.”"
It's refreshing to see a celeb who, rather than confessing to wanting world peace or an end to hunger as a child, says they always dreamed of owning a Porsche 911.
A long queue out the door, never seen it so brisk. The woman behind me was debating how best to defeat the Tory and hadn't made up her mind when it got to my turn to go in.
She should have been told to shut up. No political discussion is allowed inside and immediately around the polling station.
can anyone suggest a method of getting BBC-TV coverage overnight in Germany? I have no traditional TV set, just online streaming and I have no VPN. Well I do but a free one where where I can't specify which country I'm in. BBC i-Player is only available in the UK.
I usually just listen to radio for UK news (no location block) and occasionally stream German TV for visual news. But visual coverage of the election would be so much better.
Any suggestions would be great. Thanks.
I should imagine one or more channels will have it on YouTube.
I've just posted and deleted half a dozen links to election news livestreams. Go to YouTube, search for uk general election or some such, then select live.
A long queue out the door, never seen it so brisk. The woman behind me was debating how best to defeat the Tory and hadn't made up her mind when it got to my turn to go in.
She should have been told to shut up. No political discussion is allowed inside and immediately around the polling station.
"You can't fight here, this is the war room!"
Plus, so Sky News tells me, dogs aren't actually not allowed in polling stations, it's up to the polling station.
can anyone suggest a method of getting BBC-TV coverage overnight in Germany? I have no traditional TV set, just online streaming and I have no VPN. Well I do but a free one where where I can't specify which country I'm in. BBC i-Player is only available in the UK.
I usually just listen to radio for UK news (no location block) and occasionally stream German TV for visual news. But visual coverage of the election would be so much better.
Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley 🚨 @IpsosUK FINAL CALL: Labour lead at 18 / Tories face historic defeat / Lab share drops in final week. 🚨
Labour 37% (-5) Conservatives 19% (nc) Reform UK 15% (nc) Lib Dems 11% (nc) Greens 9% (+2)
No reversal of Brexit in Keir's lifetime. Incredible when over 60% of the country now want it. Perhaps he really will be as tone deaf as some have predicted
If you ask the Corbynites, all Starmer's ever done is break promises.
We just need to be patient. They'll go to the EU to try and ameliorate the damage. Maybe they'll have some successes. But the inexorable desire of a majority those under 60 to get back what they've lost, and to get back for their kids, will become too electorally powerful to ignore. It'll take some time, and more wasted years, but we'll get there.
Brexit is forever sullied with the last 14 years. Starmer is nothing if not pragmatic.
When I need to ask the Corbynites something I'll give you the special signal, which is me being sectioned under the Mental Health Act.
The Eurozone construction sector is stuck in a recession with no clear path to recovery. The HCOB PMI for June fell to 41.8. The setbacks in the three largest economies in the zone—Germany, France, and Italy—have been particularly severe this month. Subsector activity shows that residential construction remains the weakest, though there was a slight softening in the pace of decline compared to the previous month. The most significant negative correction from May occurred in civil engineering activity.
Continued growth of the UK construction sector in June meant that the sector has recorded sustained expansion throughout the second quarter of the year. While there were signs of a slowdown in the latest survey period, most notably around housing activity, firms indicated that a slowdown in new order growth was in part related to election uncertainty. We may therefore see trends improve once the election period comes to an end.
Moreover, confidence in the year ahead outlook remained strong and firms increased employment to the largest extent in ten months.
In terms of inflation, there remains little sign of cost pressures picking up to any great extent, encouraging firms to expand purchasing activity. Supply-chain conditions also remained favourable.
The great EuroZone construction depression is something which likely connects to other areas of socioeconomic malaise and political disfunction.
Do not expect the media to report it.
Us ISM services was also bad at 48.8 yesterday. Starmer will be up against it from day 1.
Comments
Officers (its always the officers) genuinely asking us if there are other places that could be used to put a library. There are not. The fightback is by pushing them to provide the statutory services that have already been cut such as youth services, and put them into the building.
A bit of cash spent - to replace all the florescent lights with LEDs and replace the storage heaters with energy efficient heat pump - would slash operating costs. But they don't have the money to invest in that either.
This isn't even party political at a micro scale - every council is slashing services because the system itself is broken. Which is why I am running for election - we need to make a more fundamental change than tinkering around the edges. What legacy are we bequeathing to my kids when everything we once had it being scrapped because we can't afford it? How can we afford not to have a bus service or libraries or youth work or public toilets or a GP surgery with GPs in it or the police?
Bloody Tories know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
By a weird coincidence this means that their sports day is today, while the last one was on the day of Liz Truss/Kwasi Kwarteng's minibudget.
Quite an amusing two political dates to top and tail with.
Like getting an excellent crement or cava for the same price as a bargain basement hydrochloric champers.
We just need to be patient. They'll go to the EU to try and ameliorate the damage. Maybe they'll have some successes. But the inexorable desire of a majority those under 60 to get back what they've lost, and to get back for their kids, will become too electorally powerful to ignore. It'll take some time, and more wasted years, but we'll get there.
Brexit is forever sullied with the last 14 years. Starmer is nothing if not pragmatic.
Under a proper PR system I'd expect the big winners to be Greens, PC and Reform, big losers Labour and Conservatives with SNP and LDs flat.
It isn't party political though. Its Tory/LD in the shire and SNP/LD in the city. Both councils are broke due to Holyrood cuts and both are making terrible cuts. The issue is a lack of cash from government. The SNP say INDEPENDENCE as the cure. But Scotland gets more cash per head than any other part of the UK. The money is there, what are they wasting it on?
The whole funding model for local government is broken. That is the problem. Across the whole UK. Government has decided that it can be cut to the bone so that Tories can then blame the council if its Labour and deflect if its Tory. Wazzocks.
It's just that GB-wide polls are useless on SNP share. The margin of error is enormous as they tend to be asking fewer than 100 people in Scotland, and there is no balancing within that sample (the adjustment will be GB-wide, not of subsamples).
I just find it amusing when a poll comes up with a mad SNP number - if I were them, I'd not have put it in the tweet as it undermines the overall credibility - hide it in the tables!
If I start on whisky I'll not make 2am!!!
And, whatever your views, Rejoin is not practical politics. It’s just not going to happen. Think about everything that has to fall into place
In Britain you’d need five years of solid polls clamouring for rejoin. These polls would have to show acceptance of the euro, free movement, everything. No pm will risk a vote they might lose
So the government that offers the poll will also have to be popular. And Britain will have to be suffering AT THE SAME TIME - so people want this huge change. Think about THAT
Then you need the EU to agree. Negotiations could take a decade. At any time a veto could happen from any country. Spain might demand Gibraltar. On and on
It’s absurd and it is never going to happen - no one will want to expend the political capital and take the endless risk - Sir Kir Royale Starmer is simply telling you the truth. Sorry
Rishi in the rain.
Ange & Gordo's love-in video.
He's fallen in the water.
Nige speaking as a Putin banner was lowered behind him.
Boris gone to seed.
In this context, and with major two party votes collapsing to the lowest ever, a Lib Dem vote share of 11 or 12% really isn't very impressive. The numbers suggest a degree of revolutionary ferment out there which I'd really not picked up before the campaign. It seemed rather that the public were keen on a period of no-drama competent governance after the chaos of the last 7 years. It's also rather out of kilter with polling on the main issues: economy, inflation, NHS etc. with immigration fairly high but not at the top, and topics like Gaza way down.
Ipsos
People Polling
Lord Ashcroft
So there's a definite firming up of Tory support in the closing stages.
Especially from ... (That's enough. Ed)
Last window allegiance count (from a starting point of zero) on the way to polling station, one Ceasefire Now and one Vote Green plus Palestine flag.
Its a chore but it’s also a massive turnip for the Boks
I do feel that we as a body politic could learn something from our Scandi neighbours - it often seems like they view taxation for services as a baseline good and have been less infected by the notion that "scroungers" are "taking advantage" of the system. As someone who earns, after tax, roughly £2k a month - seeing that go down by around £100 a month for the safety of knowing the investment will go into NHS, public transport, public housing, sustainable energy and infrastructure etc. would be a no brainer for me.
To be sure there are positive sides of the ledger (pensioner poverty has fallen under the Conservatives). But, they are pretty few and far between (the FT weekend did a page of charts a few weeks ago that starkly demonstrated this).
Not sure we’ll get much better from tomorrow. But, I just hope that we get leadership that stops trying to distract us with chat about a “culture war” and actually starts trying to fix the big things that are failing.
'It isn't party political though'
'The SNP say INDEPENDENCE as the cure. But Scotland gets more cash per head than any other part of the UK. The money is there, what are they wasting it on?'
Great to see the LD mo is as strong as ever.
Alliance now favourite in Lagan Valley.
Naomi Long moving towards an easy win within Belfast East.
UUP Ahead in Antrim South but still close.
Alliance have closed the gap within Strangford, however they are likely to fall short.
These Suella Braverman photos are going to have their work cutout.
I have no traditional TV set, just online streaming and I have no VPN. Well I do but a free one where where I can't specify which country I'm in. BBC i-Player is only available in the UK.
I usually just listen to radio for UK news (no location block) and occasionally stream German TV for visual news. But visual coverage of the election would be so much better.
Any suggestions would be great. Thanks.
I know she's Bromley but I could imagine her living here:
Ennismore Garden Mews in the City of Westminster ward of Knightsbridge and Belgravia (example postcode SW7 1AW). Geographically it is situated in the middle of Knightsbridge, near to both Harrods and the Royal Albert Hall."
The Eurozone construction sector is stuck in a recession with no clear path to recovery. The HCOB PMI for June fell to 41.8. The setbacks in the three largest economies in the zone—Germany, France, and Italy—have been particularly severe this month. Subsector activity shows that residential construction remains the weakest, though there was a slight softening in the pace of decline compared to the previous month. The most significant negative correction from May occurred in civil engineering activity.
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases
Continued growth of the UK construction sector in June meant that the sector has recorded sustained expansion
throughout the second quarter of the year. While there were signs of a slowdown in the latest survey period,
most notably around housing activity, firms indicated that a slowdown in new order growth was in part related
to election uncertainty. We may therefore see trends improve once the election period comes to an end.
Moreover, confidence in the year ahead outlook remained strong and firms increased employment to the
largest extent in ten months.
In terms of inflation, there remains little sign of cost pressures picking up to any great extent, encouraging
firms to expand purchasing activity. Supply-chain conditions also remained favourable.
The great EuroZone construction depression is something which likely connects to other areas of socioeconomic malaise and political disfunction.
Do not expect the media to report it.
Ladbrokes now have the LDs in to evens; Con still just holding on to favoritism at 8/13. Those who followed my advice should now lay off if they have not already done so.
It's simply too close to call.
Alun Cairns at the top of the voting slip. Something like 8 candidates to trawl through before finding the Labour candidate in the bottom half.
Voted Labour but for the "life is too shorters" voting Cairns would have saved time.
TBF It’s probably the exact expression many pb-ers adopted when I used to post endless photos of lovely drinks in sunny places
In the Western Isles, council tax raises just 9% of the council's total expenditure - it can't really be argued that the Scottish government contribution is not enough.
Most people in the UK probably would favour being in the EU if we could pick and choose which bits apply to us, but on that basis we would never have left in the first place. That's a type of EU membership that does not exist and is never likely to be offered to us.
The EU membership debate isn't really about the EU anymore, it's more symbolic than practical, or reflecting the popularity of the current government. Over the decades it has transformed from a practical economic issue to some weird identity and morality debate.
Labour's problems start when in government.
The Greens collect 9%, way above their steady, solid, unchanging range of 5% - 7% from other pollsters. Even stranger is the 6% for the SNP ... is this even possible from their limited population base? It's certainly fully double the 3% they unerringly collect again and again from just about every other poll seen throughout this campaign.
These 2 parties therefore together are shown to command 15% of the vote, which appears to be about 5% too high on any sensible comparable basis thus far.
Just to round things off, the sum percentage total for all the parties listed is 97%, i.e. 3% short. Oh Dear, how and to where has this disappeared, it surely can't simply be wished away as a "rounding error".
If it was Steve Cram, he won Silver in LA.
The problem is that the overwhelming majority of Council expenditure is on nationally-set statutory issues. Things like care, SEN etc
If the national government is going to decree the expenditure, why should those not come from nation expenses?
Not actual poverty.
If all the rich people left the country then 'poverty' would fall but actual poverty would increase.
CON 85
LAB 446
LIB 70
Reform 5
Green 3
SNP 18
PC 3
NI + other 20
I am a bit sceptical of my own prediction to be honest as I can't shake the idea that a ton of silent tories are waking up this morning and deciding they can't bring themselves to vote reform/libdem and the party needs saving from oblivion/socialist superbollocks etc etc
I cannot stay up to watch the results tonight as I have a journey to make early tomorrow.
Do I stay up for the exit poll or go to bed early and wake early hours for most of the declarations..,
Decisions decisions… I am worried about severe exit poll FOMO but imagine if it’s wrong and I miss all the drama and set pieces.
I've just posted and deleted half a dozen links to election news livestreams. Go to YouTube, search for uk general election or some such, then select live.
https://news.sky.com/story/polling-station-rules-dont-get-caught-out-on-election-day-13144499
(C) M Tucker