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Sunak’s strategy is working – politicalbetting.com
Sunak’s strategy is working – politicalbetting.com
No, that headline isn’t a typo but based on this YouGov poll of undecided voters conducted for The Times.
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And, after this election, it appears our scope for what is possible is about to be significantly expanded. If Labour can gain 250 seats in an election they can lose them again. We just have to accept that things are more volatile than they were.
Happy Bday M8! London shows are off to a splendid start 🇬🇧🇺🇸🤝
@KensingtonRoyal
So the future King is a Swiftie, the future PM is a Swiftie.
It is a regret of mine that I only ever did work for the second most famous woman in the World (the late Queen Elizabeth) and not the most famous woman in the World (Taylor Swift)
There is no point doing a deal with a party of one - the practical difference between being one short of a majority and having a majority of one is essentially non-existent.
A majority of 250 means you can absolutely dictate.
It was true, and remains true.
Question for PB Tories leaning towards accommodation with Reform. Have the Farage remarks on Putin and Ukraine changed your minds?
Thankfully there’s no majority in the Lords, their role of providing pushback to the government of the day is most important at a time like that.
Another argument against Lords being elected, is that, as in the US, you can get a situation where one party has a majority everywhere and can do what the hell they like.
https://www.markpack.org.uk/173220/the-sad-puppy-gambit-and-other-general-election-news-ldn-185/
https://www.reddit.com/r/LibDem/comments/1dl2jtk/the_sad_puppy_gambit_and_other_general_election/
https://www.clivejames.com/general-election-sequence-2001.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jun/04/worlddispatch.election2001
Sorry I want electoral reform but it's not a priority I can think of 20-30 other issues that are more pressing because the previous Government did nothing to solve any of those issues.
And yes these remarks make me question that. Setting aside the veracity of his statement - I know I am in the minority in thinking he has a point in a narrow sense - it’s the crass way he’s done it, he’s meant to be clever
More importantly it makes me wonder about those rumours of Putin funding him. And that’s not good at all
I’d also insist on House of Lords reform as part of the change to the voting system.
Bonkers to have more unelected peers than actual MPs.
Of course, lots of people think alarge majorities are a bad idea, but will it really have an impact. You say Psephologists suggest it will, but there's not a lot of time left, 'up to 2 weeks' to do so could mean that things just to have effect by the election, but not enough to be significant.
A quick scan at one american study suggested a couple of percent was possible.
If and when people enter the ballot box this is not the question that is in front of them on the ballot paper. It's a series of candidates from whom to select in a parliamentary election.
So you're asking people to switch out from that box crossing exercise back to a hypothetical question that they may, or may not, have even asked themselves. Something indeed that they have never previously had to consider in all their lives. And then to make a jump that the answer to the hypothetical question is enough to affect the way they answer the actual exercise in front of them.
Is Sunak's strategy "working" therefore? Unproven I'm afraid m'lord.
@TSE
Sure, in the long term it could be unwieldy and fractious, but most MPs are loyalists or go with the flow - of course they do, most will not be experts on every issue and have loyalty to the party if the whip instructions are given.
Two posts this morning, one going after Labour on housing taxes, and another going after Labour on motoring taxes.
Nothing at all on Farage.
https://x.com/conservatives/status/1804490205593731378?s=12
https://x.com/conservatives/status/1804450095636562228?s=12
It seems to me to be bad, at most, in the long term, which a government will believe it can avoid, or in a theoretical sense. When the reality is it is always better to win an election and see if you can in fact overcome problems than lose, and it is better to have a big majority which might be unwieldy than have a small one which limits your options.
… and they're exciting to watch
My new bestie Dan does offer a powerful argument.
https://conservativehome.com/2024/06/19/daniel-hannan-why-telling-voters-to-stop-the-landslide-wont-work/
I’m off to play with my Wilbur. 🥰
Bit of a sidetrack- the two weeks thing. Yes, it's true. And now we're less than a fortnight from polling day. Even ignoring postal voters, the campaign is running out of time to have an effect on voters. The government is in a similar position to Captain Blackadder in the final five minutes of the final episode. Good luck, everyone.
Lord Avebury had died, and there needed to be a replacement, and the only eligible voters were other Liberal Democrat heriditary peers (why some are elected by the whole house and others are not I do not know).
The election was under AV, with 3 eligible voters able to choose from 7 candidates. The winner received all 3 1st preference votes.
To make it even more fun, the winner was Viscount Thurso, previous member of the Lords from 1995-1999, and then MP from 2001-2015.
https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/publications-records/House-of-Lords-Publications/By-elections/Result-Liberal-Democrat-hereditary-peers-by-election-result-Avebury.pdf.pdf?shiftFileName=Result-Liberal-Democrat-hereditary-peers-by-election-result-Avebury.pdf.pdf&shiftSavePath=/documents/publications-records/House-of-Lords-Publications/By-elections
If you ask me, such a hilarious outcome is itself worth retaining the current arrangements.
edit … yay!
The more I think about it, the more Farage's comments feel like a huge mistake the Tories should be exploiting. NOT because of his views on the origins of the war, but because it can be painted as proof that he is literally a paid Putinite puppet. He has appeared on Russia Today, he did so after Crimea
That will be deadly for a lot of his potential voters. That's not "deeply patriotic", is it?
I guess the Tories have to be wary of the libel laws, but they could surely chuck out some innuendo. A screenshot of him on Russia Today, his quotes about Ukraine, and just a question - "who is he working for"?
That could be brutally effective and drive down the Reform vote well under 15%, potentially saving the Tories from disaster. This is a gift. Are they going to take it?
Nothing much so far seems to have made Reform minded people waver - sure, some people will still agree with Farage over it, but it's about the only thing he's offered up which might shake a few voters loose if the Tories go after it.
James Sinclair
Alexander Sinclair
James Sinclair (not the same one)
George Sinclair
William Cavendish-Bentinck
Archibald Sinclair
George Murray
John Sinclair
Robin Sinclair
Graham Dunnett
Margaret Dunnett
John Sinclair (not the same one)
If they don't go for it not only do they think it won't help get them get re-elected, but they have no other ideas on how the might.
This is - potentially - the first bit of real luck the Tories have had in the entire campaign. But gaining the benefit requires them to go on the offensive, against Farage. "He's in Putin's pocket, here is the proof"
And I loathe the Tories and want them destroyed, so this is not cheerleading; I can simply perceive a major opportunity. Same as I saw for the Lib Dems on the EU (which they have not taken, either)
If the Tories don't exploit this it means
1. They really have given up
or
2. Their entire campaign team really is infested with Labour/Reform traitors, trying to sabotage them from the inside
It’s good to see people finally linking Farage and Corbyn on foreign policy, both the far-left and far-right have identical positions on Russia, Ukraine and Syria.
Farage, Galloway, Corbyn and Cummings, all have virtually indistinguishable opinions on appeasing Russian fascism.
https://nitter.poast.org/OzKaterji/status/1804440423613538623#m
It's a bit like court cases. No one appeals cases that they have won.
Perhaps a few quotes from photogenic young refugees in Clacton, of what they think caused the war?
Thou shalt not speak ill of another Republican.
Made famous by Ronnie Regan, originally coined by Gaylord Parkinson in the 1960s.
For a meaningful chunk of the Conservative Party, Farage is a Conservative who tragically happens to be the wrong side of the Iron Curtain for now. Therefore not to be crticised.
But yes. Photoshop of Putin doing to Farage what Harry Corbett did to Sooty.
They only cost about a quarter as much, and are far more civilised and considered.
Labour leads Reform by 29% in Wales.
New lowest Conservative %.
Welsh Westminster Voting Intention (19-20 June):
Labour 46% (+1)
Reform 17% (-1)
Conservative 15% (-3)
Plaid Cymru 10% (-1)
Lib Dem 7% (+2)
Green 4% (–)
Other 1% (+1)
Changes +/- 5-7 June
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1804515291700871477
I think some people have a tendency to really overplay the effect of harmless eccentricities or ceremony, and fool themselves that if we only got rid of Black Rod having a door shut in their face the common people would engage much more with democracy, or not being able to refer directly to other Members of the House is so archaic a custom it is holding back said engagement.
If a convention or system works well enough, then oddities give it interest and flavour. If it doesn't work, sure, adapt. That's why MPs are allowed to read notes from an Ipad but are not supposed to read a speech verbatim for example, because no notes is not helpful, but they are supposed to be listening to each other, not just reading a speech.
Enabling them to fall out of tenth storey windows is more his style, I thought.
You mean they apologise as Putin's lackeys are dangling them out of a sixth floor window?
Sunak seems to make it worse every time he appears, but hiding him away is not helpful either. They are stuck.
The post-truth world is a tricky place. It's one reason - I realise - people cling to black and white opinions when, in fact, disappointing grey is the reality. Moral certainty is now seen as superior, and definitely more satisfying, than difficult truth. The lived experience triumphs over actual experience. What you feel is more important than facts
We see it on PB, we see it everywhere
The Farage thing isn't really about Putin. It's about what moral responsibility Farage thinks Britain has to help people in other countries enjoy what should be universal democratic freedoms. And the answer, for him, is none whatsoever. There's not even a threshold. Zero. Zilch.
It's incredibly revealing. It's also a feature of the new far right, everywhere. Not even "our people first" but "our people only". It is absolutely appeasement and alien to Western diplomatic ethics since WW2. And don't imagine it would have been any different IN WW2, either.
Is their vote holding up better than expected, or worse? Is the national Tory situation so terrible than early predictions that they could in fact hold some Scottish seats from the SNP now out of the question? Are the LDs making any inroads anywhere? Are Labour underperforming compared to the national position?
He invades places, he's quite good at that, or he was until his Ukraine disaster
If it reduces the Labour lead over the Tories at all, I doubt it will do so by very much. The impression from the polls is that the growth in Reform support since Farage's putsch has drawn from both Labour and the Tories.
https://x.com/BettinaSRoss1/status/1804426537405464606
That alone could save a dozen Tory seats? And when you are as close to wipe out as the Tories are, then a dozen seats is quite something
But again, it needs the Tories to be aggressive and ruthless, traits of which we have zero sign, to date
I don't think it is quite the same thing as the extreme offensiveness and odiousness that Trump displays, where is just so vulgar and unpleasant all the time even if you agree with him on 90% of things, as Farage does have a kind of chummy, earnest kind of charismatic appeal. He can come across as pretty ordinary, despite being a professional politician for decades.
Anyway here is a breadcrumb for you. Where is his pal Arron Banks these days? Hasnt been much prominent in recent times, doesnt want the attention for some reason.
Entering WW1 we were the richest and most powerful country in the world. Entering WW2, whilst damaged by WW1 to the point of no longer being the world's leading economy, still very wealthy comparitively (with the Empire to liquidate), with an economy that had recovered well during the 1930s (under very strict non-socialist policies please note), and a leader in manufacturing and military technology.
Now, we're what we are now. Nobody is more patriotic than myself here - sometimes I think I'm one of the few here who believes in our potential as an independent nation - but we are simply not in a position to fight, or even contribute meaningfully, to world conflict. We just abolished virgin steel production. We have no large scale manufacturing base. We're massively indebted with a large structural deficit. Net zero, immigration, and welfare commitments are crippling us. It's not a case of nasty people like Nigel Farage undermining our resolve, and people not being willing to work as ARP wardens or build Anderson shelters because they've been listening to nasty Nigel, it's that their "our people only" approach is literally the ONLY feasible stance we have at this time.
In Con/Lab seats (like Romford, say), getting Reform-curious voters to stay at home instead doesn't help a bit with the main battle.