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Sunak’s strategy is working – politicalbetting.com

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    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 494

    Completely off topic, but the dominance of Flemish speakers in Belgium's national teams has always confused me. There's no cultural or demographic reason for it

    59% of Belgians are Dutch speakers.
    Also it's bonkers that Walloon means French speaking. Least French looking word I can imagine.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,832

    kle4 said:

    DougSeal said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs won't be as low as 9% on election night.

    They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.

    Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
    @TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
    I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
    I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.

    Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
    I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.

    As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
    I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
    He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
    He doesn't have a vote...
    In a general?
    Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.

    *Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.

    **This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
    Serious question, do the Royal Family have the vote?
    Technically, there is no law stating that the Queen or members of the royal family cannot vote.

    However, Parliament guidelines state it is considered unconstitutional for the Monarch or their family to vote in an election.

    The official royal guidelines say the Head of State "has to remain strictly neutral with respect to political matters" and is unable to vote or stand for election.
    How far down the tree does that go? Is Mike Tindall going to get criticised for popping in and voting Lib Dem? (he strikes me as a Lib Dem)
    Prince Harry outed himself as a Corbynite in his book
    And, separately, a bit of a fool and an oversharer.
    I enjoyed the read.
    I would hope so, looking foolish and ovresharing should make something a good read.
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    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,531

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs won't be as low as 9% on election night.

    They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.

    Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
    @TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
    I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
    I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.

    Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
    I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.

    As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
    Greensill.
    He was cleared of any wrongdoing.

    https://news.sky.com/story/david-cameron-cleared-of-breaking-lobbying-rules-after-allegedly-texting-sunak-over-greensill-12257682
    "Wrongdoing" Being a shiny man in a shiny suit and lobbying for a complete shit is certainly below what is expected for an ex-PM.

    He sent:

    > Nine WhatsApps to the Chancellor Rishi Sunak

    > Two WhatsApp messages to Richard Sharp, adviser to Rishi Sunak

    > 12 texts to Sir Tom Scholar, the permanent secretary at the Treasury.

    A dozen texts/emails/phone calls and other messages were sent to: the Cabinet Office minister, Michael Gove; the health secretary, Matt Hancock; the vaccines minister, Nadhim Zahawi; the economic secretary, John Glen; and the financial secretary, Jesse Norman.

    Four emails and one text went to Sir Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor of the Bank of England.

    Seven messages and calls went to Sheridan Westlake, a senior adviser to Boris Johnson.

    Cameron often signed off the messages “Dc” or with a simple “👍”

    In a text message to Scholar on 6 March 2020, when the financial markets were in freefall at the start of the pandemic:

    “I am riding to the rescue with supply chain finance with my new friend Lex Greensill”


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/11/greensill-the-scale-of-david-camerons-lobbying-texts-revealed
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,984
    Election news.

    https://walthamforestecho.co.uk/2024/06/21/green-party-suspends-chingford-and-woodford-green-candidate/

    "Green Party suspends Chingford and Woodford Green candidate

    Chris Brody was suspended after the party found a personal blog post where he confessed to a sexual assault while on a secure mental health ward, reports Marco Marcelline"
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,333
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Savanta
    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday @Telegraph

    📉Lowest ever Conservative vote share under Sunak, again

    🌹Lab 42 (+2)
    🌳Con 19 (-2)
    ➡️Reform 16 (+2)
    🔶LD 9 (-2)
    🌍Green 5 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    ⬜️Other 6 (+1)

    2,103 UK adults
    19-21 June (chg from 14-16 June)

    Ha!

    Lab 504
    LD 53
    Con 43
    SNP 21
    PC 4
    Ref 3
    Green 2
    Others 20
    SKS fans please explain
    Explain what that non MRP Polls are exaggerating the Lab lead?

    If anyone wants to bet SKS will get over 500 seats I am happy to oppose that in a charity bet!

    I reckon the 10pm Exit poll is going to be as big a shock to SKS fans as the 2017 one.

    But we will see.
    If you think that Labour is going to do worse in seats than it did when Corbyn humiliatingly lost the 2017 election to a dead duck like Theresa May I’m happy to offer real money. The party led by your boy failed to get as many votes as another party. That’s how politics fucking works. You still fail to grasp that even a good second place is the first loser don’t you?
    I have already got £100 at 8/1 with Sky Bet that SKS gets less than the 12.9m Jezza got in 2017 thanks.

    Current price with them is now 10/11 did you miss the 8/1?
    You spectacularly miss the point I’m making. The 12m Corbyn got in 2017 was less than the 13.6m May’s Tories got. He lost. He fucked up. He’s a failure who condemned us to a whole series of Tory victories. This is about beating the Conservatives, not history. How much have you got on the result that matters, you strange Tory helper?
    12.9m is the bet not 12m.

    I think the art of political betting is spotting a ridiculous price for something to happen.

    Remember GE 2017 was a very profitable night after all and sundry had written Corbyns Labour off in many seats they won.

    Calling me a Tory helper is a bit pathetic given SKS is welcoming vile Tories on a daily basis.

    A vote for SKS is a vote for continuation Tory. Wake up.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,428

    Completely off topic, but the dominance of Flemish speakers in Belgium's national teams has always confused me. There's no cultural or demographic reason for it

    59% of Belgians are Dutch speakers.
    Also it's bonkers that Walloon means French speaking. Least French looking word I can imagine.
    Same etymological origin as Wales, Wallachia, Gaul.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,329

    Completely off topic, but the dominance of Flemish speakers in Belgium's national teams has always confused me. There's no cultural or demographic reason for it

    59% of Belgians are Dutch speakers.
    Also it's bonkers that Walloon means French speaking. Least French looking word I can imagine.
    The community languages of Wallonie are French AND German.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,553

    🚨 New polling with @ObserverUK

    The Labour lead is now 20 points
    •Labour 40% (n/c)
    •Conservatives 20% (-3)
    •Reform 16% (+2)
    •Lib Dems 12% (n/c)
    •Greens 9% (+2)
    •SNP 3% (+1)

    Fieldwork: 19 - 21 June. Changes from 12 - 14 June.

    Getting battered

    @BigJohnOwls fans please explain.
    Explain that Lab are going to get less votes than 2017.

    Massive win on my only decent size bet this GE
    Fewer votes
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,980

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    I’ve just noticed my ferry to St Malo - pedestrian - costs £400 - for ONE person

    Of course I’m not paying but who the heck would pay that when a flight is less than half and takes an hour rather than 10 hours? Keeps out the riff raff I guess

    This is also my first ever trip to Portsmouth. To my intense surprise I quite like it. Gritty and port-y but with a hint of the spectacular. The sun glints on grey metal

    Been bombed to bits and not entirely recovered. My favourite bits are Old Pourtsmouth - the Point where this cartoon was drawn - and the view from the outside coffee tables at Priddy's Hard (the old ammunition depot oppposite). And Portchester Castle.

    https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/788317
    Portchester Castle is the distillation of English history.
    Saxon shore fort built.by the Romans 1600 years ago.
    Rebuilt by Henry Ii iirc.
    Part of Henry V's fleet set sail from here for France.
    Surrounded by Georgian houses.
    Used for Napoleonic prisoners of war who built a theatre in the keep.
    Victorian church in the bailey.
    Cricket ground in the bailey still in use.
    Stand atop the keep and see the whole of Portsmouth harbour.

    One of my favourite places in the world.
    Extremely noomy, Portchester castle

    Also I once had sex in a car near there

    In unrelated news that has nothing to do with my fading virility the fuckers at ******* ferries have just stolen my favourite old knife: a spyderco tenacious

    Ferries are shit. And expensive. Fuck em
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,138

    Completely off topic, but the dominance of Flemish speakers in Belgium's national teams has always confused me. There's no cultural or demographic reason for it

    59% of Belgians are Dutch speakers.
    Also it's bonkers that Walloon means French speaking. Least French looking word I can imagine.
    Walloon is actually a seperate language, but little-spoken these days.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walloon_language
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    stodgestodge Posts: 13,207

    stodge said:


    Not according to Laura Kuenssberg.

    She, and she says Labour do not believe the polls.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c722eezx9n4o

    Neither do I. Shy Tories, Rishi's Labour tax bomb, don't knows, punish Nigel surge and don't let Labour get a landslide surgecould all happen.

    Back to Stodge's Tenth Law of Politics - you may hope and believe something can't happen but that usually means it will.

    It was the same in 1997 - Labour didn't believe what was happening because nothing like it had happened before. The Conservatives were the same. Both were saying even on the cusp of polling day it was close etc, etc.

    Others knew but didn't believe what their eyes, ears and data were telling them.

    It's a similar position now - nobody believes Labour will get 500 seats and the Conservatives 100 seats and yet the data and anecdotal information they must be seeing at Labour and Conservative HQ will be telling them something they still refuse to accept.
    Starting from the numbers is just not the right way to do things

    Mayor of Hiroshima: no single bomb in history has ever caused 1% of the number of casualties you claim. Your report can safely be ignored

    Manchester CID: that would be 25 times as many murders as the previous record for a GP. Safe to close this file.

    Etc etc
    I really don't understand your answer.

    All sorts of information is being fed back to the various Party headquarters from both the so-called air war and the so-called ground war. The question is whether those looking at the information understand what they are seeing and accept it and will act on it.

    Will, for example, Labour activists be diverted into seats which they had never considered as prospects? The Conservatives seem to be falling back to an inner ring of seats with 20,000 majorities or more and are defending those frantically? Will the LDs move their limited resources beyond the obvious targets into areas which have become promising following local success?

    The last 10-11 days of any election are critical - decisions taken this weekend on the data available will have huge impact and significance.

    Tonight's polls continue to slow Conservative support sliding to 20% or below - that's uncharted water for the Party in terms of any election.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,063

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Savanta
    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday @Telegraph

    📉Lowest ever Conservative vote share under Sunak, again

    🌹Lab 42 (+2)
    🌳Con 19 (-2)
    ➡️Reform 16 (+2)
    🔶LD 9 (-2)
    🌍Green 5 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    ⬜️Other 6 (+1)

    2,103 UK adults
    19-21 June (chg from 14-16 June)

    Ha!

    Lab 504
    LD 53
    Con 43
    SNP 21
    PC 4
    Ref 3
    Green 2
    Others 20
    SKS fans please explain
    Explain what that non MRP Polls are exaggerating the Lab lead?

    If anyone wants to bet SKS will get over 500 seats I am happy to oppose that in a charity bet!

    I reckon the 10pm Exit poll is going to be as big a shock to SKS fans as the 2017 one.

    But we will see.
    If you think that Labour is going to do worse in seats than it did when Corbyn humiliatingly lost the 2017 election to a dead duck like Theresa May I’m happy to offer real money. The party led by your boy failed to get as many votes as another party. That’s how politics fucking works. You still fail to grasp that even a good second place is the first loser don’t you?
    I have already got £100 at 8/1 with Sky Bet that SKS gets less than the 12.9m Jezza got in 2017 thanks.

    Current price with them is now 10/11 did you miss the 8/1?
    You spectacularly miss the point I’m making. The 12m Corbyn got in 2017 was less than the 13.6m May’s Tories got. He lost. He fucked up. He’s a failure who condemned us to a whole series of Tory victories. This is about beating the Conservatives, not history. How much have you got on the result that matters, you strange Tory helper?
    Er this is a betting site. BJO should be betting on results that offer value, not on what he wants to happen
    TBF, 2017 was the highest Labour votes ever. I am surprised he got 8/1 on it since Starmer would need to get the highest Labour vote count in history.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,178

    NEW THREAD

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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,070

    Completely off topic, but the dominance of Flemish speakers in Belgium's national teams has always confused me. There's no cultural or demographic reason for it

    59% of Belgians are Dutch speakers.
    Also it's bonkers that Walloon means French speaking. Least French looking word I can imagine.
    That's because it's Wallon in French and Walloon is a different langue d'oïl to French (although hardly anyone speaks it any more)
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,984

    Asking for a friend. What's the magic number when majority becomes "super-majority"?

    Probably 200 seat majority or more. So Blair just missed out in 1997.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,832
    Andy_JS said:

    Election news.

    https://walthamforestecho.co.uk/2024/06/21/green-party-suspends-chingford-and-woodford-green-candidate/

    "Green Party suspends Chingford and Woodford Green candidate

    Chris Brody was suspended after the party found a personal blog post where he confessed to a sexual assault while on a secure mental health ward, reports Marco Marcelline"

    I see the wikipedia page now lists him as an Independent, which is a bit dodgy, it should show him as the Green but include a note about support being withdrawn, as is the case with Labour in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chingford_and_Woodford_Green_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberdeenshire_North_and_Moray_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    🚨 New polling with @ObserverUK

    The Labour lead is now 20 points
    •Labour 40% (n/c)
    •Conservatives 20% (-3)
    •Reform 16% (+2)
    •Lib Dems 12% (n/c)
    •Greens 9% (+2)
    •SNP 3% (+1)

    Fieldwork: 19 - 21 June. Changes from 12 - 14 June.

    Getting battered

    @BigJohnOwls fans please explain.
    Explain that Lab are going to get less votes than 2017.

    Massive win on my only decent size bet this GE
    Fewer votes
    Sigh.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 4,807

    Completely off topic, but the dominance of Flemish speakers in Belgium's national teams has always confused me. There's no cultural or demographic reason for it

    59% of Belgians are Dutch speakers.
    I used to look after the ill gotten Congolese gains of the larger number of the wealthiest Belgian families and there was a very clear differentiation between them in person.

    The frenchies were very sophisticated, artful, maybe just “sly”. Very money driven and materialist, the Flemish ones were delightfully simple.

    The frenchies would turn up looking like royalty and behave in a cod noble way and their richer Flemish equivalents would turn up dressed straight from the farm with dirty fingernails and shabby clothing.

    This doesn’t add anything to anything but just an observation.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,480
    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs won't be as low as 9% on election night.

    They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.

    Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
    @TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
    I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
    I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.

    Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
    I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.

    As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
    I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
    He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
    He doesn't have a vote...
    In a general?
    Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.

    *Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.

    **This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
    Serious question, do the Royal Family have the vote?
    If they are not sitting members of the House of Lords yes they do. Previously most of them were disenfranchised because their various titles gave them a seat in he upper house but that’s not been the case since 1999. Technically even the King can vote but the monarch does not do so in keeping with the no politics tradition.
    Cheers sir
  • Options
    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,070

    Completely off topic, but the dominance of Flemish speakers in Belgium's national teams has always confused me. There's no cultural or demographic reason for it

    59% of Belgians are Dutch speakers.
    Isn’t that usually described as Flemish?
    The official language is Dutch. Belgian Dutch differs very little from Netherlands Dutch. There are a variety of dialects, but not all Dutch-speaking Belgians are Flemings: some are Brabantians or Limburgers
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,480

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs won't be as low as 9% on election night.

    They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.

    Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
    @TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
    I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
    I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.

    Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
    I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.

    As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
    I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
    He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
    He doesn't have a vote...
    In a general?
    Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.

    *Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.

    **This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
    Serious question, do the Royal Family have the vote?
    Proposed electoral reform to modernise the nation:

    Adopt the Eurovision voting system with the Royal Family playing the role of the judges. The points awarded by the Royals would count for 50% of the total.

    Declarations would be made by videolink to a live venue where candidates would sit together in the green room.
    Do they all have to wear spangly leotards?
  • Options
    MustaphaMondeoMustaphaMondeo Posts: 116
    kle4 said:

    🚨 New polling with @ObserverUK

    The Labour lead is now 20 points
    •Labour 40% (n/c)
    •Conservatives 20% (-3)
    •Reform 16% (+2)
    •Lib Dems 12% (n/c)
    •Greens 9% (+2)
    •SNP 3% (+1)

    Fieldwork: 19 - 21 June. Changes from 12 - 14 June.

    Getting battered

    Greens on 9 wow
    The Green support I find most difficult to explain. They are not a fringe political force, but they are not major either. I find it hard to believe all 'true' leftwing people are voting Green as Labour would not be at 40% with centre left and centre (and some centre right) alone. In the South the LDs poll better, and in most of the country the Greens are barely present even with some good local gains in the last few years.

    So how are they getting to 9%?
    I’ve been knocking. Heartened by the number of small c conservatives being positive. I like wildlife and clean rivers. They nod and talk about renationalise the rail and water. Insulate. I nod.

    I would feel bad if I didn’t think I’m sucking up more Cons and Lib Dem, than Labour left.

    I’m getting 1/2 Labour, more Green than Con, but then I smile, listen, and sympathise. I think they may be quite polite.

    Not a bit surprised by 9%.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,360
    EPG said:

    🚨 New polling with @ObserverUK

    The Labour lead is now 20 points
    •Labour 40% (n/c)
    •Conservatives 20% (-3)
    •Reform 16% (+2)
    •Lib Dems 12% (n/c)
    •Greens 9% (+2)
    •SNP 3% (+1)

    Fieldwork: 19 - 21 June. Changes from 12 - 14 June.

    Getting battered

    It's hotting up in that one Reform/Green marginal.
    Funny you should say that. Today I overheard someone saying that they were going to vote Reform to keep the Green out.

    Goodness knows which seat.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,418
    stodge said:


    Not according to Laura Kuenssberg.

    She, and she says Labour do not believe the polls.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c722eezx9n4o

    Neither do I. Shy Tories, Rishi's Labour tax bomb, don't knows, punish Nigel surge and don't let Labour get a landslide surgecould all happen.

    Back to Stodge's Tenth Law of Politics - you may hope and believe something can't happen but that usually means it will.

    It was the same in 1997 - Labour didn't believe what was happening because nothing like it had happened before. The Conservatives were the same. Both were saying even on the cusp of polling day it was close etc, etc.

    Others knew but didn't believe what their eyes, ears and data were telling them.

    It's a similar position now - nobody believes Labour will get 500 seats and the Conservatives 100 seats and yet the data and anecdotal information they must be seeing at Labour and Conservative HQ will be telling them something they still refuse to accept.
    And OK... Of the 400 or so Conservative candidates who were thinking in 2021/2, "next stop Westminster", most (250? 300?) must know, cognitively, that it ain't happening. They, and their opposition counterparts, and their campaign teams, have a pretty clear sense of where the front line is.

    But the only way to endure the next fortnight is to shut those thoughts out, because to give up is to definitely lose.

    We're in the "point of no return" phase of the election. A bit like the ten days after the start of a COVID lockdown. The numbers are happening, we can be pretty sure what will happen next. But it won't show up in the figures yet.
  • Options
    jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 728
    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    I’ve just noticed my ferry to St Malo - pedestrian - costs £400 - for ONE person

    Of course I’m not paying but who the heck would pay that when a flight is less than half and takes an hour rather than 10 hours? Keeps out the riff raff I guess

    This is also my first ever trip to Portsmouth. To my intense surprise I quite like it. Gritty and port-y but with a hint of the spectacular. The sun glints on grey metal

    Been bombed to bits and not entirely recovered. My favourite bits are Old Pourtsmouth - the Point where this cartoon was drawn - and the view from the outside coffee tables at Priddy's Hard (the old ammunition depot oppposite). And Portchester Castle.

    https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/788317
    Portchester Castle is the distillation of English history.
    Saxon shore fort built.by the Romans 1600 years ago.
    Rebuilt by Henry Ii iirc.
    Part of Henry V's fleet set sail from here for France.
    Surrounded by Georgian houses.
    Used for Napoleonic prisoners of war who built a theatre in the keep.
    Victorian church in the bailey.
    Cricket ground in the bailey still in use.
    Stand atop the keep and see the whole of Portsmouth harbour.

    One of my favourite places in the world.
    Also, the site of the now sadly defunct "Mighty Fine" pub. Once voted Britain's roughest pub where the stripper would gob in your mouth for a fiver on "Forces Only" nights. At one point the bouncer was a dwarf who would regularly get hung on a coat hook from which eyrie he would lash out in impotent rage at anybody within range with a pool cue. The landlord was trans years before JK Rowling started going on about them.
    I believe I know people who know that stripper.
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    TresTres Posts: 2,360

    Completely off topic, but the dominance of Flemish speakers in Belgium's national teams has always confused me. There's no cultural or demographic reason for it

    59% of Belgians are Dutch speakers.
    Isn’t that usually described as Flemish?
    flemish is just a dialect of Dutch
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,781

    a

    IanB2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Good evening

    To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition

    I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative

    Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority

    Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
    Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
    At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
    In the case of Tower Hamlets, the criminal theft of votes was proven in court.
    Friend of mine used to live in Tower Hamlets, and was registered for a postal vote. One year it didn’t arrive, so she went to the Office to complain, and was told to go straight to the police.
    She did, and a large bundle of voting forms was subsequently found in the house of the Council official who was supposed to distribute them.
    That’s what she told me, anyway.

    IanB2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Good evening

    To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition

    I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative

    Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority

    Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
    Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
    At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
    In the case of Tower Hamlets, the criminal theft of votes was proven in court.
    Friend of mine used to live in Tower Hamlets, and was registered for a postal vote. One year it didn’t arrive, so she went to the Office to complain, and was told to go straight to the police.
    She did, and a large bundle of voting forms was subsequently found in the house of the Council official who was supposed to distribute them.
    That’s what she told me, anyway.
    My flatmate had his vote stolen - polling card sent to a different flat. That apparently had dozens of people living there. When he tried to report it to the police a curious saga ensued.

    He was first told that it wasn’t a crime. Yes, really. He was told nothing would be done.

    He insisted on making a statement. When asked to sign it, he read it. It bore no relation to what he had said, included an addition of a fictitious kicking on the door of the flat his vote had been registered to (he never went there) and was full of crude and racist language. He was a Lib Dem of the kind who would stop a conversation to correct someone for not using First Australians to refer to the original inhabitants - not exactly the chap to call people P**i….

    When asked, they claimed that the statement was accurate, it would take too much time to change it and they would change it later. He said he would wait. In the end they managed to write down his recorded words accurately.

    All in all it took him the better part of a day to record a crime.

    Oh, and no further action was taken.
    That is a shocking anecdote. And yet I’m not full of doubt. Any organisation with that little trust must go.

    It is time to end the Met.
    Why is it shocking? Because it happened to a nice middle class chap?

    During the Rotherham comedy, a step-dad (IIRC) made repeated complaints to the police. In response, a policeman warned him that if the complaints continued, they would write him up as a racist. And then under the legislation for dealing with “unacceptable” neighbours, have the family thrown out of their council house.

    I can tell you another fun one about a friend, a watch, a policeman, £1.21 and another policeman.
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    MustaphaMondeoMustaphaMondeo Posts: 116

    EPG said:

    🚨 New polling with @ObserverUK

    The Labour lead is now 20 points
    •Labour 40% (n/c)
    •Conservatives 20% (-3)
    •Reform 16% (+2)
    •Lib Dems 12% (n/c)
    •Greens 9% (+2)
    •SNP 3% (+1)

    Fieldwork: 19 - 21 June. Changes from 12 - 14 June.

    Getting battered

    It's hotting up in that one Reform/Green marginal.
    Funny you should say that. Today I overheard someone saying that they were going to vote Reform to keep the Green out.

    Goodness knows which seat.
    Mine probably.
    I had a farmer stand for the conservatives locally because he don’t want no greens round here. Which was galling. I was already his cllr and I care more about his soil than he does.


    I’m sure there’s an appropriate Shaky quote but the only one I can think of is “My second hit was a flop”.
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    MustaphaMondeoMustaphaMondeo Posts: 116
    I’d like this thing where you start a new thread while I’m writing a post to stop.
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    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,169
    DougSeal said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Good evening

    To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition

    I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative

    Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority

    Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
    Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
    At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
    Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you

    And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting

    Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
    I will not support the conservatives with Farage as leader and to suggest such a thing is just your bitterness sadly

    Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless

    Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage

    And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
    The issue is, you have said you would not support the Conservatives after Partygate, after Truss, after the D-Day debacle, yet in the end you still find a reason to support them.

    That is your absolute right of course but don't be surprised if no one believes you wouldn't support them under Farage.
    I have said I will not support Farage and to suggest I would is just an exercise in trying to discredit my change 9f view which was 3xplained on here and indeed @Heathener and others supported that decision

    I have been married to my dear wife for 60 years and I can affirm on that marriage I will not support Farage
    BS
    You are making a mistake here. For you, Johnson and Farage are more or less in the same category and you are failing to account for the fact that many other people see them as very different characters.
    That’s missing the point.

    Every PB’er can see that G, or G’s wife, or both of them, are tribal Tory voters who when it comes to it will always find whatever reason they can to justify voting Tory. There’s nothing wrong with that - it’s essentially the HY position (who incidentally G has spent many of his own posts criticising). What is so insulting to the rest of us is that everything he posts meantime is essentially dishonest, whether deliberately or otherwise.
    Spare us all from this tedious feud you have with him.
    What would PB be without tedious feuds? Not sure there’s a poster on here without one.
    I don't have any as far as I know everyone just hates me equally nods
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,242
    Dura_Ace said:

    Observations...

    Ukraine does not appear to be militarised from top to bottom. It's not Berlin 1945 yet.

    Kharkov was quiet-ish. All I got was the distant crump of 152mm arty, maybe 10km away and very low UAF Frogfoot spamming the ASO-2V like the US tax payer was buying the flares. Hang on, they are. No glide bomb or flying Iranian lawnmower shenanigans for the few hours I was there.

    When I lived and worked in Ukraine in the noughties it was a highly stratified society. Basically, if you had access to hard currency through crime, foreign remittances or putting your little sister on the game you were sorted for Es and Whizz. If you didn't have access to hard currency then your life probably sucked. This seems to apply to the SMO in spades and there are plenty of Ukrainians getting very rich of the back of it (SF90 Stradale on UA plates at my hotel) but the vast majority are struggling. According to the kid who worked in my Kiev hotel the price of getting out conscription is down to 3,000 euros because that's all the market will stand. He was clearly angling for a loan and remained disappointed.

    There are massive recruitment posters for Azov in Kiev that are not at all fascist in tone. In fact they are very similar in the design language to the PMC Wagner posters that used to proliferate in Moscow. Azov are clearly the glamour unit and they obviously think they can get CoD enthusiasts to sign up voluntarily.

    Kharkov was half empty. Most of the zhdany, the ones who wait (for the Russians), appear to have scarpered for Russia.

    I did get a sense of enduring resolve but that seems to attenuate the farther east I got. I sort of understand Green T-Shirt's act a little better now. Hope is the only currency he has so that's what he trades in, specifically investing it in new and marvelous weapons from the West. Remember when the Abrams would punch through the RF lines and sever the land border with with Crimea like an inexorable iron tide? He's repeating similar shit about F-16s now.

    Only a fucking idiot would pretend that they know what happens next.

    You need to get a travel writer gig on the symmetrical opposite of the Spectator.

    Anyway, I thought you were missing in action on your mission to rescue an M5 from Leaverdom. A much scarier adventure, I have no doubt
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