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Sunak’s strategy is working – politicalbetting.com

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  • MustaphaMondeoMustaphaMondeo Posts: 181

    EPG said:

    🚨 New polling with @ObserverUK

    The Labour lead is now 20 points
    •Labour 40% (n/c)
    •Conservatives 20% (-3)
    •Reform 16% (+2)
    •Lib Dems 12% (n/c)
    •Greens 9% (+2)
    •SNP 3% (+1)

    Fieldwork: 19 - 21 June. Changes from 12 - 14 June.

    Getting battered

    It's hotting up in that one Reform/Green marginal.
    Funny you should say that. Today I overheard someone saying that they were going to vote Reform to keep the Green out.

    Goodness knows which seat.
    Mine probably.
    I had a farmer stand for the conservatives locally because he don’t want no greens round here. Which was galling. I was already his cllr and I care more about his soil than he does.


    I’m sure there’s an appropriate Shaky quote but the only one I can think of is “My second hit was a flop”.
  • MustaphaMondeoMustaphaMondeo Posts: 181
    I’d like this thing where you start a new thread while I’m writing a post to stop.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,870
    DougSeal said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Good evening

    To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition

    I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative

    Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority

    Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
    Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
    At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
    Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you

    And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting

    Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
    I will not support the conservatives with Farage as leader and to suggest such a thing is just your bitterness sadly

    Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless

    Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage

    And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
    The issue is, you have said you would not support the Conservatives after Partygate, after Truss, after the D-Day debacle, yet in the end you still find a reason to support them.

    That is your absolute right of course but don't be surprised if no one believes you wouldn't support them under Farage.
    I have said I will not support Farage and to suggest I would is just an exercise in trying to discredit my change 9f view which was 3xplained on here and indeed @Heathener and others supported that decision

    I have been married to my dear wife for 60 years and I can affirm on that marriage I will not support Farage
    BS
    You are making a mistake here. For you, Johnson and Farage are more or less in the same category and you are failing to account for the fact that many other people see them as very different characters.
    That’s missing the point.

    Every PB’er can see that G, or G’s wife, or both of them, are tribal Tory voters who when it comes to it will always find whatever reason they can to justify voting Tory. There’s nothing wrong with that - it’s essentially the HY position (who incidentally G has spent many of his own posts criticising). What is so insulting to the rest of us is that everything he posts meantime is essentially dishonest, whether deliberately or otherwise.
    Spare us all from this tedious feud you have with him.
    What would PB be without tedious feuds? Not sure there’s a poster on here without one.
    I don't have any as far as I know everyone just hates me equally nods
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Dura_Ace said:

    Observations...

    Ukraine does not appear to be militarised from top to bottom. It's not Berlin 1945 yet.

    Kharkov was quiet-ish. All I got was the distant crump of 152mm arty, maybe 10km away and very low UAF Frogfoot spamming the ASO-2V like the US tax payer was buying the flares. Hang on, they are. No glide bomb or flying Iranian lawnmower shenanigans for the few hours I was there.

    When I lived and worked in Ukraine in the noughties it was a highly stratified society. Basically, if you had access to hard currency through crime, foreign remittances or putting your little sister on the game you were sorted for Es and Whizz. If you didn't have access to hard currency then your life probably sucked. This seems to apply to the SMO in spades and there are plenty of Ukrainians getting very rich of the back of it (SF90 Stradale on UA plates at my hotel) but the vast majority are struggling. According to the kid who worked in my Kiev hotel the price of getting out conscription is down to 3,000 euros because that's all the market will stand. He was clearly angling for a loan and remained disappointed.

    There are massive recruitment posters for Azov in Kiev that are not at all fascist in tone. In fact they are very similar in the design language to the PMC Wagner posters that used to proliferate in Moscow. Azov are clearly the glamour unit and they obviously think they can get CoD enthusiasts to sign up voluntarily.

    Kharkov was half empty. Most of the zhdany, the ones who wait (for the Russians), appear to have scarpered for Russia.

    I did get a sense of enduring resolve but that seems to attenuate the farther east I got. I sort of understand Green T-Shirt's act a little better now. Hope is the only currency he has so that's what he trades in, specifically investing it in new and marvelous weapons from the West. Remember when the Abrams would punch through the RF lines and sever the land border with with Crimea like an inexorable iron tide? He's repeating similar shit about F-16s now.

    Only a fucking idiot would pretend that they know what happens next.

    You need to get a travel writer gig on the symmetrical opposite of the Spectator.

    Anyway, I thought you were missing in action on your mission to rescue an M5 from Leaverdom. A much scarier adventure, I have no doubt
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