The more I think about it, the more Farage's comments feel like a huge mistake the Tories should be exploiting. NOT because of his views on the origins of the war, but because it can be painted as proof that he is literally a paid Putinite puppet. He has appeared on Russia Today, he did so after Crimea
That will be deadly for a lot of his potential voters. That's not "deeply patriotic", is it?
I guess the Tories have to be wary of the libel laws, but they could surely chuck out some innuendo. A screenshot of him on Russia Today, his quotes about Ukraine, and just a question - "who is he working for"?
That could be brutally effective and drive down the Reform vote well under 15%, potentially saving the Tories from disaster. This is a gift. Are they going to take it?
But if he isn't a paid Putinite puppet (or if there's just no actual evidence that he is), that approach could be very dangerous. Putin is very good at getting apologies off people. CCHQ doesn't want to be in the position at having to apologise publicly to him during an election campaign.
Do you mean Putin is very good at getting apologies off people?
Enabling them to fall out of tenth storey windows is more his style, I thought.
President Putin managed to get an absolutely lovely, heartfelt apology from Prigozhin shortly before he sadly had an accident.
The more I think about it, the more Farage's comments feel like a huge mistake the Tories should be exploiting. NOT because of his views on the origins of the war, but because it can be painted as proof that he is literally a paid Putinite puppet. He has appeared on Russia Today, he did so after Crimea
That will be deadly for a lot of his potential voters. That's not "deeply patriotic", is it?
I guess the Tories have to be wary of the libel laws, but they could surely chuck out some innuendo. A screenshot of him on Russia Today, his quotes about Ukraine, and just a question - "who is he working for"?
That could be brutally effective and drive down the Reform vote well under 15%, potentially saving the Tories from disaster. This is a gift. Are they going to take it?
The Tories are pretty screwed if Reform get anything above 10% (and pretty badly hurt even if it is below that), but they surely should be aiming to drive it down, and that requires both push and pull factors - appeal to what Reform voters want, the pull, but also highlight Farage and his party's unpalatable views on things, the push.
Nothing much so far seems to have made Reform minded people waver - sure, some people will still agree with Farage over it, but it's about the only thing he's offered up which might shake a few voters loose if the Tories go after it.
Quite so
This is - potentially - the first bit of real luck the Tories have had in the entire campaign. But gaining the benefit requires them to go on the offensive, against Farage. "He's in Putin's pocket, here is the proof"
And I loathe the Tories and want them destroyed, so this is not cheerleading; I can simply perceive a major opportunity. Same as I saw for the Lib Dems on the EU (which they have not taken, either)
If the Tories don't exploit this it means
1. They really have given up
or
2. Their entire campaign team really is infested with Labour/Reform traitors, trying to sabotage them from the inside
If this results in a loss of support by Reform, we are just back to the perennial question of where it will go.
If it reduces the Labour lead over the Tories at all, I doubt it will do so by very much. The impression from the polls is that the growth in Reform support since Farage's putsch has drawn from both Labour and the Tories.
I can imagine a lot of potential Reform voters being put-off by the "fucking appeasement of Putin", and deciding to abstain instead
That alone could save a dozen Tory seats? And when you are as close to wipe out as the Tories are, then a dozen seats is quite something
But again, it needs the Tories to be aggressive and ruthless, traits of which we have zero sign, to date
I read a guardian article yesterday about James Forsyth, Rishi’s right hand man and the takeaway was he was someone who is ridiculously polite and quiet. I wonder if the combination of this politeness with Rishi’s maths geekery leaves them unable to fight hard and dirty. Even the fib re the £2000 Labour tax wasn’t pushed home hard (if you are going to lie, lie big and all that).
They seem to have turned up to a gangland shootout with their boxing gloves and a copy of the Queensbury rules.
The Farage thing isn't really about Putin. It's about what moral responsibility Farage thinks Britain has to help people in other countries enjoy what should be universal democratic freedoms. And the answer, for him, is none whatsoever. There's not even a threshold. Zero. Zilch.
It's incredibly revealing. It's also a feature of the new far right, everywhere. Not even "our people first" but "our people only". It is absolutely appeasement and alien to Western diplomatic ethics since WW2. And don't imagine it would have been any different IN WW2, either.
Isn't the point more a simpler one of capability?
Entering WW1 we were the richest and most powerful country in the world. Entering WW2, whilst damaged by WW1 to the point of no longer being the world's leading economy, still very wealthy comparitively (with the Empire to liquidate), with an economy that had recovered well during the 1930s (under very strict non-socialist policies please note), and a leader in manufacturing and military technology.
Now, we're what we are now. Nobody is more patriotic than myself here - sometimes I think I'm one of the few here who believes in our potential as an independent nation - but we are simply not in a position to fight, or even contribute meaningfully, to world conflict. We just abolished virgin steel production. We have no large scale manufacturing base. We're massively indebted with a large structural deficit. Net zero, immigration, and welfare commitments are crippling us. It's not a case of nasty people like Nigel Farage undermining our resolve, and people not being willing to work as ARP wardens or build Anderson shelters because they've been listening to nasty Nigel, it's that their "our people only" approach is literally the ONLY feasible stance we have at this time.
But we're not talking about material aid. We're talking about moral support.
Unequivocally condemning Putin for invading a neighbour.
In Farage I see someone who from a public platform has never uttered one word of kindness towards the fellow citizens he is not trying to recruit, never extended a conciliating hand to anyone who differs, never built a bridge or talked about compromise, and never indicated sympathy with (or even interest in) a contrary opinion, or any willingness to reconsider his own. The grin is broad but the vive is negativeL whom or what do we hate? Come hate with me.
I don't think it is quite the same thing as the extreme offensiveness and odiousness that Trump displays, where is just so vulgar and unpleasant all the time even if you agree with him on 90% of things, as Farage does have a kind of chummy, earnest kind of charismatic appeal. He can come across as pretty ordinary, despite being a professional politician for decades.
In a different time, Would you want Nigel Farage to marry your daughter? would be an excellent attack slogan. It gets to the heart of the matter.
The more I think about it, the more Farage's comments feel like a huge mistake the Tories should be exploiting. NOT because of his views on the origins of the war, but because it can be painted as proof that he is literally a paid Putinite puppet. He has appeared on Russia Today, he did so after Crimea
That will be deadly for a lot of his potential voters. That's not "deeply patriotic", is it?
I guess the Tories have to be wary of the libel laws, but they could surely chuck out some innuendo. A screenshot of him on Russia Today, his quotes about Ukraine, and just a question - "who is he working for"?
That could be brutally effective and drive down the Reform vote well under 15%, potentially saving the Tories from disaster. This is a gift. Are they going to take it?
But if he isn't a paid Putinite puppet (or if there's just no actual evidence that he is), that approach could be very dangerous. Farage is very good at getting apologies off people. CCHQ doesn't want to be in the position at having to apologise publicly to him during an election campaign.
The election will be over before anything is proven or disproven. He has dug himself a hole with his comments and will hopefully have him and his party's balls roasted.
Anyway here is a breadcrumb for you. Where is his pal Arron Banks these days? Hasnt been much prominent in recent times, doesnt want the attention for some reason.
Gloating over his victory from suing Carole Cadwallader?
The more I think about it, the more Farage's comments feel like a huge mistake the Tories should be exploiting. NOT because of his views on the origins of the war, but because it can be painted as proof that he is literally a paid Putinite puppet. He has appeared on Russia Today, he did so after Crimea
That will be deadly for a lot of his potential voters. That's not "deeply patriotic", is it?
I guess the Tories have to be wary of the libel laws, but they could surely chuck out some innuendo. A screenshot of him on Russia Today, his quotes about Ukraine, and just a question - "who is he working for"?
That could be brutally effective and drive down the Reform vote well under 15%, potentially saving the Tories from disaster. This is a gift. Are they going to take it?
The Tories are pretty screwed if Reform get anything above 10% (and pretty badly hurt even if it is below that), but they surely should be aiming to drive it down, and that requires both push and pull factors - appeal to what Reform voters want, the pull, but also highlight Farage and his party's unpalatable views on things, the push.
Nothing much so far seems to have made Reform minded people waver - sure, some people will still agree with Farage over it, but it's about the only thing he's offered up which might shake a few voters loose if the Tories go after it.
Quite so
This is - potentially - the first bit of real luck the Tories have had in the entire campaign. But gaining the benefit requires them to go on the offensive, against Farage. "He's in Putin's pocket, here is the proof"
And I loathe the Tories and want them destroyed, so this is not cheerleading; I can simply perceive a major opportunity. Same as I saw for the Lib Dems on the EU (which they have not taken, either)
If the Tories don't exploit this it means
1. They really have given up
or
2. Their entire campaign team really is infested with Labour/Reform traitors, trying to sabotage them from the inside
If this results in a loss of support by Reform, we are just back to the perennial question of where it will go.
If it reduces the Labour lead over the Tories at all, I doubt it will do so by very much. The impression from the polls is that the growth in Reform support since Farage's putsch has drawn from both Labour and the Tories.
I can imagine a lot of potential Reform voters being put-off by the "fucking appeasement of Putin", and deciding to abstain instead
That alone could save a dozen Tory seats? And when you are as close to wipe out as the Tories are, then a dozen seats is quite something
But again, it needs the Tories to be aggressive and ruthless, traits of which we have zero sign, to date
Doesn't that depend on how many seats Reform have a chance of winning? Even the more optimistic takes are generally fingers-of-one-hand terrritory.
In Con/Lab seats (like Romford, say), getting Reform-curious voters to stay at home instead doesn't help a bit with the main battle.
The number of seats they have a chance of winning is a lot lower than the number of seats where they could cost the Tories victory. Sure, sitting at home does not directly save all the latter, but if a big chunk stay at home a smaller chunk may be willing to give the Tories another shot (acknowledging not all Reform voters are former Tories), and save some at least.
10 seats saved could be a major chunk of the post election parliamentary party as things stand.
The more I think about it, the more Farage's comments feel like a huge mistake the Tories should be exploiting. NOT because of his views on the origins of the war, but because it can be painted as proof that he is literally a paid Putinite puppet. He has appeared on Russia Today, he did so after Crimea
That will be deadly for a lot of his potential voters. That's not "deeply patriotic", is it?
I guess the Tories have to be wary of the libel laws, but they could surely chuck out some innuendo. A screenshot of him on Russia Today, his quotes about Ukraine, and just a question - "who is he working for"?
That could be brutally effective and drive down the Reform vote well under 15%, potentially saving the Tories from disaster. This is a gift. Are they going to take it?
But if he isn't a paid Putinite puppet (or if there's just no actual evidence that he is), that approach could be very dangerous. Farage is very good at getting apologies off people. CCHQ doesn't want to be in the position at having to apologise publicly to him during an election campaign.
The election will be over before anything is proven or disproven. He has dug himself a hole with his comments and will hopefully have him and his party's balls roasted.
Anyway here is a breadcrumb for you. Where is his pal Arron Banks these days? Hasnt been much prominent in recent times, doesnt want the attention for some reason.
Gloating over his victory from suing Carole Cadwallader?
Impossible, I remember reading in the papers that court decisions are like football matches, and having 2 appeal decisions not upheld and 1 upheld, or whatever, meant that morally she had won. Or some other ridiculousness.
Last weekend of campaigning in France before the first round. RN ahead , Front Pop not far behind Macron in the doldrums but nobody forecast to get a clear majority
The more I think about it, the more Farage's comments feel like a huge mistake the Tories should be exploiting. NOT because of his views on the origins of the war, but because it can be painted as proof that he is literally a paid Putinite puppet. He has appeared on Russia Today, he did so after Crimea
That will be deadly for a lot of his potential voters. That's not "deeply patriotic", is it?
I guess the Tories have to be wary of the libel laws, but they could surely chuck out some innuendo. A screenshot of him on Russia Today, his quotes about Ukraine, and just a question - "who is he working for"?
That could be brutally effective and drive down the Reform vote well under 15%, potentially saving the Tories from disaster. This is a gift. Are they going to take it?
But if he isn't a paid Putinite puppet (or if there's just no actual evidence that he is), that approach could be very dangerous. Putin is very good at getting apologies off people. CCHQ doesn't want to be in the position at having to apologise publicly to him during an election campaign.
Do you mean Putin is very good at getting apologies off people?
Enabling them to fall out of tenth storey windows is more his style, I thought.
President Putin managed to get an absolutely lovely, heartfelt apology from Prigozhin shortly before he sadly had an accident.
Did they ever get to the bottom of that mystery? I'd hate to think people were living in fear uncertain of what caused the accident.
In Farage I see someone who from a public platform has never uttered one word of kindness towards the fellow citizens he is not trying to recruit, never extended a conciliating hand to anyone who differs, never built a bridge or talked about compromise, and never indicated sympathy with (or even interest in) a contrary opinion, or any willingness to reconsider his own. The grin is broad but the vive is negativeL whom or what do we hate? Come hate with me.
I don't think it is quite the same thing as the extreme offensiveness and odiousness that Trump displays, where is just so vulgar and unpleasant all the time even if you agree with him on 90% of things, as Farage does have a kind of chummy, earnest kind of charismatic appeal. He can come across as pretty ordinary, despite being a professional politician for decades.
After the massive villification that Farage gets, and is still getting, especially from those invested in the European project, both still inside it, or longing to be back inside it, is it really down to him to be walking around offering olive branches to all and sundry? He's leading a (peaceful) political insurgency ffs.
The more I think about it, the more Farage's comments feel like a huge mistake the Tories should be exploiting. NOT because of his views on the origins of the war, but because it can be painted as proof that he is literally a paid Putinite puppet. He has appeared on Russia Today, he did so after Crimea
That will be deadly for a lot of his potential voters. That's not "deeply patriotic", is it?
I guess the Tories have to be wary of the libel laws, but they could surely chuck out some innuendo. A screenshot of him on Russia Today, his quotes about Ukraine, and just a question - "who is he working for"?
That could be brutally effective and drive down the Reform vote well under 15%, potentially saving the Tories from disaster. This is a gift. Are they going to take it?
The Tories are pretty screwed if Reform get anything above 10% (and pretty badly hurt even if it is below that), but they surely should be aiming to drive it down, and that requires both push and pull factors - appeal to what Reform voters want, the pull, but also highlight Farage and his party's unpalatable views on things, the push.
Nothing much so far seems to have made Reform minded people waver - sure, some people will still agree with Farage over it, but it's about the only thing he's offered up which might shake a few voters loose if the Tories go after it.
Quite so
This is - potentially - the first bit of real luck the Tories have had in the entire campaign. But gaining the benefit requires them to go on the offensive, against Farage. "He's in Putin's pocket, here is the proof"
And I loathe the Tories and want them destroyed, so this is not cheerleading; I can simply perceive a major opportunity. Same as I saw for the Lib Dems on the EU (which they have not taken, either)
If the Tories don't exploit this it means
1. They really have given up
or
2. Their entire campaign team really is infested with Labour/Reform traitors, trying to sabotage them from the inside
If this results in a loss of support by Reform, we are just back to the perennial question of where it will go.
If it reduces the Labour lead over the Tories at all, I doubt it will do so by very much. The impression from the polls is that the growth in Reform support since Farage's putsch has drawn from both Labour and the Tories.
I can imagine a lot of potential Reform voters being put-off by the "fucking appeasement of Putin", and deciding to abstain instead
That alone could save a dozen Tory seats? And when you are as close to wipe out as the Tories are, then a dozen seats is quite something
But again, it needs the Tories to be aggressive and ruthless, traits of which we have zero sign, to date
Doesn't that depend on how many seats Reform have a chance of winning? Even the more optimistic takes are generally fingers-of-one-hand terrritory.
In Con/Lab seats (like Romford, say), getting Reform-curious voters to stay at home instead doesn't help a bit with the main battle.
Yes, you're right, it does need some Reform voters to return to the Tories, as well as abstain, in most seats where Reform don't have a chance
But maybe not many? eg we were discussing North Herefordshire yesterday, and my theory that the heavy pollution of the Wye is pushing this usually highly Tory seat towards the Greens. Here is the data
North Herefordshire Constituency Voting Intention:
That Green vote looks frothy to me, are they really going tio get 39%??? Really? I can imagine that falling back as the vote nears. Then the 13% for Reform is crucial. If half of them go back to the Tories - yes I am REALLOCATING - then suddenly the Tories could retain the seat
Like I said I can see that happening in a dozen seats around trhe UK, if the Tories can damage the Reform brand
The more I think about it, the more Farage's comments feel like a huge mistake the Tories should be exploiting. NOT because of his views on the origins of the war, but because it can be painted as proof that he is literally a paid Putinite puppet. He has appeared on Russia Today, he did so after Crimea
That will be deadly for a lot of his potential voters. That's not "deeply patriotic", is it?
I guess the Tories have to be wary of the libel laws, but they could surely chuck out some innuendo. A screenshot of him on Russia Today, his quotes about Ukraine, and just a question - "who is he working for"?
That could be brutally effective and drive down the Reform vote well under 15%, potentially saving the Tories from disaster. This is a gift. Are they going to take it?
But if he isn't a paid Putinite puppet (or if there's just no actual evidence that he is), that approach could be very dangerous. Putin is very good at getting apologies off people. CCHQ doesn't want to be in the position at having to apologise publicly to him during an election campaign.
Do you mean Putin is very good at getting apologies off people?
Enabling them to fall out of tenth storey windows is more his style, I thought.
President Putin managed to get an absolutely lovely, heartfelt apology from Prigozhin shortly before he sadly had an accident.
Prigozhin chickening out of his coup attempt will be one of the great 'what if's of history.
In Farage I see someone who from a public platform has never uttered one word of kindness towards the fellow citizens he is not trying to recruit, never extended a conciliating hand to anyone who differs, never built a bridge or talked about compromise, and never indicated sympathy with (or even interest in) a contrary opinion, or any willingness to reconsider his own. The grin is broad but the vive is negativeL whom or what do we hate? Come hate with me.
I don't think it is quite the same thing as the extreme offensiveness and odiousness that Trump displays, where is just so vulgar and unpleasant all the time even if you agree with him on 90% of things, as Farage does have a kind of chummy, earnest kind of charismatic appeal. He can come across as pretty ordinary, despite being a professional politician for decades.
In a different time, Would you want Nigel Farage to marry your daughter? would be an excellent attack slogan. It gets to the heart of the matter.
Because you wouldn't, would you?
The grin is broad but the vive is negative. whom or what do we hate? Come hate with me.
In Farage I see someone who from a public platform has never uttered one word of kindness towards the fellow citizens he is not trying to recruit, never extended a conciliating hand to anyone who differs, never built a bridge or talked about compromise, and never indicated sympathy with (or even interest in) a contrary opinion, or any willingness to reconsider his own. The grin is broad but the vive is negativeL whom or what do we hate? Come hate with me.
I don't think it is quite the same thing as the extreme offensiveness and odiousness that Trump displays, where is just so vulgar and unpleasant all the time even if you agree with him on 90% of things, as Farage does have a kind of chummy, earnest kind of charismatic appeal. He can come across as pretty ordinary, despite being a professional politician for decades.
In a different time, Would you want Nigel Farage to marry your daughter? would be an excellent attack slogan. It gets to the heart of the matter.
Because you wouldn't, would you?
Always thought that would be a great line against Donald Trump.
The more I think about it, the more Farage's comments feel like a huge mistake the Tories should be exploiting. NOT because of his views on the origins of the war, but because it can be painted as proof that he is literally a paid Putinite puppet. He has appeared on Russia Today, he did so after Crimea
That will be deadly for a lot of his potential voters. That's not "deeply patriotic", is it?
I guess the Tories have to be wary of the libel laws, but they could surely chuck out some innuendo. A screenshot of him on Russia Today, his quotes about Ukraine, and just a question - "who is he working for"?
That could be brutally effective and drive down the Reform vote well under 15%, potentially saving the Tories from disaster. This is a gift. Are they going to take it?
But if he isn't a paid Putinite puppet (or if there's just no actual evidence that he is), that approach could be very dangerous. Putin is very good at getting apologies off people. CCHQ doesn't want to be in the position at having to apologise publicly to him during an election campaign.
Do you mean Putin is very good at getting apologies off people?
Enabling them to fall out of tenth storey windows is more his style, I thought.
President Putin managed to get an absolutely lovely, heartfelt apology from Prigozhin shortly before he sadly had an accident.
Prigozhin chickening out of his coup attempt will be one of the great 'what if's of history.
That was one of the weirdest days in recent years. I was on holiday with the missus, and we sat watching the TV all day hoping that the end result would be a Russian civil war.
The more I think about it, the more Farage's comments feel like a huge mistake the Tories should be exploiting. NOT because of his views on the origins of the war, but because it can be painted as proof that he is literally a paid Putinite puppet. He has appeared on Russia Today, he did so after Crimea
That will be deadly for a lot of his potential voters. That's not "deeply patriotic", is it?
I guess the Tories have to be wary of the libel laws, but they could surely chuck out some innuendo. A screenshot of him on Russia Today, his quotes about Ukraine, and just a question - "who is he working for"?
That could be brutally effective and drive down the Reform vote well under 15%, potentially saving the Tories from disaster. This is a gift. Are they going to take it?
But if he isn't a paid Putinite puppet (or if there's just no actual evidence that he is), that approach could be very dangerous. Putin is very good at getting apologies off people. CCHQ doesn't want to be in the position at having to apologise publicly to him during an election campaign.
Do you mean Putin is very good at getting apologies off people?
Enabling them to fall out of tenth storey windows is more his style, I thought.
President Putin managed to get an absolutely lovely, heartfelt apology from Prigozhin shortly before he sadly had an accident.
Prigozhin chickening out of his coup attempt will be one of the great 'what if's of history.
The Farage thing isn't really about Putin. It's about what moral responsibility Farage thinks Britain has to help people in other countries enjoy what should be universal democratic freedoms. And the answer, for him, is none whatsoever. There's not even a threshold. Zero. Zilch.
It's incredibly revealing. It's also a feature of the new far right, everywhere. Not even "our people first" but "our people only". It is absolutely appeasement and alien to Western diplomatic ethics since WW2. And don't imagine it would have been any different IN WW2, either.
Isn't the point more a simpler one of capability?
Entering WW1 we were the richest and most powerful country in the world. Entering WW2, whilst damaged by WW1 to the point of no longer being the world's leading economy, still very wealthy comparitively (with the Empire to liquidate), with an economy that had recovered well during the 1930s (under very strict non-socialist policies please note), and a leader in manufacturing and military technology.
Now, we're what we are now. Nobody is more patriotic than myself here - sometimes I think I'm one of the few here who believes in our potential as an independent nation - but we are simply not in a position to fight, or even contribute meaningfully, to world conflict. We just abolished virgin steel production. We have no large scale manufacturing base. We're massively indebted with a large structural deficit. Net zero, immigration, and welfare commitments are crippling us. It's not a case of nasty people like Nigel Farage undermining our resolve, and people not being willing to work as ARP wardens or build Anderson shelters because they've been listening to nasty Nigel, it's that their "our people only" approach is literally the ONLY feasible stance we have at this time.
But we're not talking about material aid. We're talking about moral support.
Unequivocally condemning Putin for invading a neighbour.
He can't do it.
Moral responsibility is not the same as moral support. I don't think anyone minds giving Zelensky some tea and sympathy, but that's not the same as writing a blank cheque.
"The Queensland effect, it was said, was what happened in 1995 when a moribund conservative opposition trailing in polls, in Queensland successfully appealed to the electorate to vote against the government because its grin was too smug and its majority was too large."
He's leading a (peaceful) political insurgency ffs.
Is that an accurate description of a Putinist 5th column?
Are you actually suggesting that Nigel Farage should love bomb you and those who agree with you? You want a cuddle with Nige? Being nice is a two way street. You want to dish him out endless vitriol and then have him give you humble supplication in return.
In Farage I see someone who from a public platform has never uttered one word of kindness towards the fellow citizens he is not trying to recruit, never extended a conciliating hand to anyone who differs, never built a bridge or talked about compromise, and never indicated sympathy with (or even interest in) a contrary opinion, or any willingness to reconsider his own. The grin is broad but the vive is negativeL whom or what do we hate? Come hate with me.
I don't think it is quite the same thing as the extreme offensiveness and odiousness that Trump displays, where is just so vulgar and unpleasant all the time even if you agree with him on 90% of things, as Farage does have a kind of chummy, earnest kind of charismatic appeal. He can come across as pretty ordinary, despite being a professional politician for decades.
In a different time, Would you want Nigel Farage to marry your daughter? would be an excellent attack slogan. It gets to the heart of the matter.
Because you wouldn't, would you?
Always thought that would be a great line against Donald Trump.
Why would Trump be interested in anyone else’s daughter when he’s got the horn for his own daughter?
The Farage thing isn't really about Putin. It's about what moral responsibility Farage thinks Britain has to help people in other countries enjoy what should be universal democratic freedoms. And the answer, for him, is none whatsoever. There's not even a threshold. Zero. Zilch.
It's incredibly revealing. It's also a feature of the new far right, everywhere. Not even "our people first" but "our people only". It is absolutely appeasement and alien to Western diplomatic ethics since WW2. And don't imagine it would have been any different IN WW2, either.
Isn't the point more a simpler one of capability?
Entering WW1 we were the richest and most powerful country in the world. Entering WW2, whilst damaged by WW1 to the point of no longer being the world's leading economy, still very wealthy comparitively (with the Empire to liquidate), with an economy that had recovered well during the 1930s (under very strict non-socialist policies please note), and a leader in manufacturing and military technology.
Now, we're what we are now. Nobody is more patriotic than myself here - sometimes I think I'm one of the few here who believes in our potential as an independent nation - but we are simply not in a position to fight, or even contribute meaningfully, to world conflict. We just abolished virgin steel production. We have no large scale manufacturing base. We're massively indebted with a large structural deficit. Net zero, immigration, and welfare commitments are crippling us. It's not a case of nasty people like Nigel Farage undermining our resolve, and people not being willing to work as ARP wardens or build Anderson shelters because they've been listening to nasty Nigel, it's that their "our people only" approach is literally the ONLY feasible stance we have at this time.
I agree almost completely with your diagnosis, except that I am possibly even more pessimistic about the UK and the west in general. Just walking around Camden half an hour ago - the dystopian sense of decay is horrifying. Tents all down Parkway. Obvious Fentanyl abuse. People simply accepting this. But this is the same malaise I have seen in Paris, Italy, America.....
There are only two possible escape routes. "Technology" or firm rightwing governments that take no shit
THIS is why it is so deeply irritating when Farage, who actually has political skill, and might push us in a rightwards directions, goes and fucks it all up - potentially - with silly, mis-timed remarks about Putin. Read the damn room, Nige
Just trying to formulate what the Tories would consider relative 'success' from the doldrums they've put themselves in? I'm guessing the minimum aim must be to be HM opposition with enough MPs to properly shadow the government and run a 1922 committee plus provide a deputy speaker, so, what, 110 MPs minimum? They're aiming no doubt to beat the 156 low total
The Farage thing isn't really about Putin. It's about what moral responsibility Farage thinks Britain has to help people in other countries enjoy what should be universal democratic freedoms. And the answer, for him, is none whatsoever. There's not even a threshold. Zero. Zilch.
It's incredibly revealing. It's also a feature of the new far right, everywhere. Not even "our people first" but "our people only". It is absolutely appeasement and alien to Western diplomatic ethics since WW2. And don't imagine it would have been any different IN WW2, either.
Isn't the point more a simpler one of capability?
Entering WW1 we were the richest and most powerful country in the world. Entering WW2, whilst damaged by WW1 to the point of no longer being the world's leading economy, still very wealthy comparitively (with the Empire to liquidate), with an economy that had recovered well during the 1930s (under very strict non-socialist policies please note), and a leader in manufacturing and military technology.
Now, we're what we are now. Nobody is more patriotic than myself here - sometimes I think I'm one of the few here who believes in our potential as an independent nation - but we are simply not in a position to fight, or even contribute meaningfully, to world conflict. We just abolished virgin steel production. We have no large scale manufacturing base. We're massively indebted with a large structural deficit. Net zero, immigration, and welfare commitments are crippling us. It's not a case of nasty people like Nigel Farage undermining our resolve, and people not being willing to work as ARP wardens or build Anderson shelters because they've been listening to nasty Nigel, it's that their "our people only" approach is literally the ONLY feasible stance we have at this time.
But we're not talking about material aid. We're talking about moral support.
Unequivocally condemning Putin for invading a neighbour.
He can't do it.
Moral responsibility is not the same as moral support. I don't think anyone minds giving Zelensky some tea and sympathy, but that's not the same as writing a blank cheque.
He doesn’t want tea and sympathy, he needs guns and ammo.
On the majority, I want Starmer to have a majority large enough to be bold to do reforms that are necessary, and which will be damaging and maybe expensive in the short term.
It's still a matter of trust that Mr Starmer will be reasonably moderate and reasonably sane.
I'd say we need a majority of 100-150, and at least 2 terms, with a good chance of a third term.
If we get to tread the dirt down on the political graves the current generation of Conservatives have dug for themselves, that's a bonus. I do not want political zombies like Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss reappearing in 15 years' time.
On Topic. There is a counter argument to your Header. Not questioning the polling you posted as wrong - though don’t know is winning in it, which power to the counter argument, but how many actually follow polls, believe them, and know what to do to prevent it, without risking the Labour majority priority they want.
"The Queensland effect, it was said, was what happened in 1995 when a moribund conservative opposition trailing in polls, in Queensland successfully appealed to the electorate to vote against the government because its grin was too smug and its majority was too large."
Didn't the Conservatives here try something similar in 2005? I half-remember a cinema ad set to Take That Look Off Your Face.
Easier to pull off when you're already in opposition. I suspect a lot of voters will think "yeah, giving Starmer a huge majority won't be ideal, but we really really really want to kick Sunak."
The more I think about it, the more Farage's comments feel like a huge mistake the Tories should be exploiting. NOT because of his views on the origins of the war, but because it can be painted as proof that he is literally a paid Putinite puppet. He has appeared on Russia Today, he did so after Crimea
That will be deadly for a lot of his potential voters. That's not "deeply patriotic", is it?
I guess the Tories have to be wary of the libel laws, but they could surely chuck out some innuendo. A screenshot of him on Russia Today, his quotes about Ukraine, and just a question - "who is he working for"?
That could be brutally effective and drive down the Reform vote well under 15%, potentially saving the Tories from disaster. This is a gift. Are they going to take it?
But if he isn't a paid Putinite puppet (or if there's just no actual evidence that he is), that approach could be very dangerous. Putin is very good at getting apologies off people. CCHQ doesn't want to be in the position at having to apologise publicly to him during an election campaign.
Do you mean Putin is very good at getting apologies off people?
Enabling them to fall out of tenth storey windows is more his style, I thought.
President Putin managed to get an absolutely lovely, heartfelt apology from Prigozhin shortly before he sadly had an accident.
Prigozhin chickening out of his coup attempt will be one of the great 'what if's of history.
Chickening out of his coop more like
On chickening out, this is a video of Jason Zadrozny and a chicken, accusing the Leeanderthal Man of chickening out of hustings. Chicken is useless - did not even peck the bugger for chickening out of his own criminal trial.
Have made my tiny (few pounds each) election bets:
LibDems to win in my local (LibDem-Tory marginal) seat: 1/10 LibDems under 56.5 seats: 1/1 Conservatives to get more votes than Reform: 1/3 Conservatives to get most seats (except Labour): 3/10 Conservatives 150-200 seats lost: 7/1
All with Ladbrokes. Just picked a few whose odds pleased me. Not one of PB's professional bettors.
Most confident about my local constituency one - close to a certainty. Also hopeful of the 7/1 conservative seats bet, especially if turnout is low.
The more I think about it, the more Farage's comments feel like a huge mistake the Tories should be exploiting. NOT because of his views on the origins of the war, but because it can be painted as proof that he is literally a paid Putinite puppet. He has appeared on Russia Today, he did so after Crimea
That will be deadly for a lot of his potential voters. That's not "deeply patriotic", is it?
I guess the Tories have to be wary of the libel laws, but they could surely chuck out some innuendo. A screenshot of him on Russia Today, his quotes about Ukraine, and just a question - "who is he working for"?
That could be brutally effective and drive down the Reform vote well under 15%, potentially saving the Tories from disaster. This is a gift. Are they going to take it?
The Tories are pretty screwed if Reform get anything above 10% (and pretty badly hurt even if it is below that), but they surely should be aiming to drive it down, and that requires both push and pull factors - appeal to what Reform voters want, the pull, but also highlight Farage and his party's unpalatable views on things, the push.
Nothing much so far seems to have made Reform minded people waver - sure, some people will still agree with Farage over it, but it's about the only thing he's offered up which might shake a few voters loose if the Tories go after it.
Quite so
This is - potentially - the first bit of real luck the Tories have had in the entire campaign. But gaining the benefit requires them to go on the offensive, against Farage. "He's in Putin's pocket, here is the proof"
And I loathe the Tories and want them destroyed, so this is not cheerleading; I can simply perceive a major opportunity. Same as I saw for the Lib Dems on the EU (which they have not taken, either)
If the Tories don't exploit this it means
1. They really have given up
or
2. Their entire campaign team really is infested with Labour/Reform traitors, trying to sabotage them from the inside
If this results in a loss of support by Reform, we are just back to the perennial question of where it will go.
If it reduces the Labour lead over the Tories at all, I doubt it will do so by very much. The impression from the polls is that the growth in Reform support since Farage's putsch has drawn from both Labour and the Tories.
Depends if it affects more the 2019 ConRef switchers who'd already gone over or the recent undecideds who have leapt aboard
No - the polls were suggesting much the same before Farage elected himself leader. Perhaps a small net gain for the Tories, but substantial percentages of Labour and NV.
The Farage thing isn't really about Putin. It's about what moral responsibility Farage thinks Britain has to help people in other countries enjoy what should be universal democratic freedoms. And the answer, for him, is none whatsoever. There's not even a threshold. Zero. Zilch.
It's incredibly revealing. It's also a feature of the new far right, everywhere. Not even "our people first" but "our people only". It is absolutely appeasement and alien to Western diplomatic ethics since WW2. And don't imagine it would have been any different IN WW2, either.
Isn't the point more a simpler one of capability?
Entering WW1 we were the richest and most powerful country in the world. Entering WW2, whilst damaged by WW1 to the point of no longer being the world's leading economy, still very wealthy comparitively (with the Empire to liquidate), with an economy that had recovered well during the 1930s (under very strict non-socialist policies please note), and a leader in manufacturing and military technology.
Now, we're what we are now. Nobody is more patriotic than myself here - sometimes I think I'm one of the few here who believes in our potential as an independent nation - but we are simply not in a position to fight, or even contribute meaningfully, to world conflict. We just abolished virgin steel production. We have no large scale manufacturing base. We're massively indebted with a large structural deficit. Net zero, immigration, and welfare commitments are crippling us. It's not a case of nasty people like Nigel Farage undermining our resolve, and people not being willing to work as ARP wardens or build Anderson shelters because they've been listening to nasty Nigel, it's that their "our people only" approach is literally the ONLY feasible stance we have at this time.
But we're not talking about material aid. We're talking about moral support.
Unequivocally condemning Putin for invading a neighbour.
He can't do it.
Moral responsibility is not the same as moral support. I don't think anyone minds giving Zelensky some tea and sympathy, but that's not the same as writing a blank cheque.
He doesn’t want tea and sympathy, he needs guns and ammo.
Exactly. The former we can easily give. Unlimited amounts of the other (or money to buy them with) we need to consider more carefully. I understand your perspective on this and it does you immense credit. But I do wonder whether making Ukraine the endless theatre of a smouldering war is right for anyone.
The Farage thing isn't really about Putin. It's about what moral responsibility Farage thinks Britain has to help people in other countries enjoy what should be universal democratic freedoms. And the answer, for him, is none whatsoever. There's not even a threshold. Zero. Zilch.
It's incredibly revealing. It's also a feature of the new far right, everywhere. Not even "our people first" but "our people only". It is absolutely appeasement and alien to Western diplomatic ethics since WW2. And don't imagine it would have been any different IN WW2, either.
Rifkind is missing the point. We don’t help Ukraine because we believe in universal freedoms. We help Ukraine because it is in our self interest to help them.
The Farage thing isn't really about Putin. It's about what moral responsibility Farage thinks Britain has to help people in other countries enjoy what should be universal democratic freedoms. And the answer, for him, is none whatsoever. There's not even a threshold. Zero. Zilch.
It's incredibly revealing. It's also a feature of the new far right, everywhere. Not even "our people first" but "our people only". It is absolutely appeasement and alien to Western diplomatic ethics since WW2. And don't imagine it would have been any different IN WW2, either.
Isn't the point more a simpler one of capability?
Entering WW1 we were the richest and most powerful country in the world. Entering WW2, whilst damaged by WW1 to the point of no longer being the world's leading economy, still very wealthy comparitively (with the Empire to liquidate), with an economy that had recovered well during the 1930s (under very strict non-socialist policies please note), and a leader in manufacturing and military technology.
Now, we're what we are now. Nobody is more patriotic than myself here - sometimes I think I'm one of the few here who believes in our potential as an independent nation - but we are simply not in a position to fight, or even contribute meaningfully, to world conflict. We just abolished virgin steel production. We have no large scale manufacturing base. We're massively indebted with a large structural deficit. Net zero, immigration, and welfare commitments are crippling us. It's not a case of nasty people like Nigel Farage undermining our resolve, and people not being willing to work as ARP wardens or build Anderson shelters because they've been listening to nasty Nigel, it's that their "our people only" approach is literally the ONLY feasible stance we have at this time.
I agree almost completely with your diagnosis, except that I am possibly even more pessimistic about the UK and the west in general. Just walking around Camden half an hour ago - the dystopian sense of decay is horrifying. Tents all down Parkway. Obvious Fentanyl abuse. People simply accepting this. But this is the same malaise I have seen in Paris, Italy, America.....
There are only two possible escape routes. "Technology" or firm rightwing governments that take no shit
THIS is why it is so deeply irritating when Farage, who actually has political skill, and might push us in a rightwards directions, goes and fucks it all up - potentially - with silly, mis-timed remarks about Putin. Read the damn room, Nige
The more I think about it, the more Farage's comments feel like a huge mistake the Tories should be exploiting. NOT because of his views on the origins of the war, but because it can be painted as proof that he is literally a paid Putinite puppet. He has appeared on Russia Today, he did so after Crimea
That will be deadly for a lot of his potential voters. That's not "deeply patriotic", is it?
I guess the Tories have to be wary of the libel laws, but they could surely chuck out some innuendo. A screenshot of him on Russia Today, his quotes about Ukraine, and just a question - "who is he working for"?
That could be brutally effective and drive down the Reform vote well under 15%, potentially saving the Tories from disaster. This is a gift. Are they going to take it?
The Tories are pretty screwed if Reform get anything above 10% (and pretty badly hurt even if it is below that), but they surely should be aiming to drive it down, and that requires both push and pull factors - appeal to what Reform voters want, the pull, but also highlight Farage and his party's unpalatable views on things, the push.
Nothing much so far seems to have made Reform minded people waver - sure, some people will still agree with Farage over it, but it's about the only thing he's offered up which might shake a few voters loose if the Tories go after it.
Quite so
This is - potentially - the first bit of real luck the Tories have had in the entire campaign. But gaining the benefit requires them to go on the offensive, against Farage. "He's in Putin's pocket, here is the proof"
And I loathe the Tories and want them destroyed, so this is not cheerleading; I can simply perceive a major opportunity. Same as I saw for the Lib Dems on the EU (which they have not taken, either)
If the Tories don't exploit this it means
1. They really have given up
or
2. Their entire campaign team really is infested with Labour/Reform traitors, trying to sabotage them from the inside
If this results in a loss of support by Reform, we are just back to the perennial question of where it will go.
If it reduces the Labour lead over the Tories at all, I doubt it will do so by very much. The impression from the polls is that the growth in Reform support since Farage's putsch has drawn from both Labour and the Tories.
I can imagine a lot of potential Reform voters being put-off by the "fucking appeasement of Putin", and deciding to abstain instead
That alone could save a dozen Tory seats? And when you are as close to wipe out as the Tories are, then a dozen seats is quite something
But again, it needs the Tories to be aggressive and ruthless, traits of which we have zero sign, to date
The only Tory seats that Reform abstentions could save would be seats Reform would have won otherwise.
I don't believe even at best that would be a dozen. Maybe Clacton and one or two others.
The Farage thing isn't really about Putin. It's about what moral responsibility Farage thinks Britain has to help people in other countries enjoy what should be universal democratic freedoms. And the answer, for him, is none whatsoever. There's not even a threshold. Zero. Zilch.
It's incredibly revealing. It's also a feature of the new far right, everywhere. Not even "our people first" but "our people only". It is absolutely appeasement and alien to Western diplomatic ethics since WW2. And don't imagine it would have been any different IN WW2, either.
Isn't the point more a simpler one of capability?
Entering WW1 we were the richest and most powerful country in the world. Entering WW2, whilst damaged by WW1 to the point of no longer being the world's leading economy, still very wealthy comparitively (with the Empire to liquidate), with an economy that had recovered well during the 1930s (under very strict non-socialist policies please note), and a leader in manufacturing and military technology.
Now, we're what we are now. Nobody is more patriotic than myself here - sometimes I think I'm one of the few here who believes in our potential as an independent nation - but we are simply not in a position to fight, or even contribute meaningfully, to world conflict. We just abolished virgin steel production. We have no large scale manufacturing base. We're massively indebted with a large structural deficit. Net zero, immigration, and welfare commitments are crippling us. It's not a case of nasty people like Nigel Farage undermining our resolve, and people not being willing to work as ARP wardens or build Anderson shelters because they've been listening to nasty Nigel, it's that their "our people only" approach is literally the ONLY feasible stance we have at this time.
But we're not talking about material aid. We're talking about moral support.
Unequivocally condemning Putin for invading a neighbour.
He can't do it.
Moral responsibility is not the same as moral support. I don't think anyone minds giving Zelensky some tea and sympathy, but that's not the same as writing a blank cheque.
He doesn’t want tea and sympathy, he needs guns and ammo.
Exactly. The former we can easily give. Unlimited amounts of the other (or money to buy them with) we need to consider more carefully. I understand your perspective on this and it does you immense credit. But I do wonder whether making Ukraine the endless theatre of a smouldering war is right for anyone.
No-one wants an endless war, what needs to happen is Putin’s orcs driven back to Russia by the most overwhelming military assault seen since WWII, and then a Korea-style DMZ set up between the two countries enforced by European militaries.
The more I think about it, the more Farage's comments feel like a huge mistake the Tories should be exploiting. NOT because of his views on the origins of the war, but because it can be painted as proof that he is literally a paid Putinite puppet. He has appeared on Russia Today, he did so after Crimea
That will be deadly for a lot of his potential voters. That's not "deeply patriotic", is it?
I guess the Tories have to be wary of the libel laws, but they could surely chuck out some innuendo. A screenshot of him on Russia Today, his quotes about Ukraine, and just a question - "who is he working for"?
That could be brutally effective and drive down the Reform vote well under 15%, potentially saving the Tories from disaster. This is a gift. Are they going to take it?
But if he isn't a paid Putinite puppet (or if there's just no actual evidence that he is), that approach could be very dangerous. Putin is very good at getting apologies off people. CCHQ doesn't want to be in the position at having to apologise publicly to him during an election campaign.
Do you mean Putin is very good at getting apologies off people?
Enabling them to fall out of tenth storey windows is more his style, I thought.
President Putin managed to get an absolutely lovely, heartfelt apology from Prigozhin shortly before he sadly had an accident.
Prigozhin chickening out of his coup attempt will be one of the great 'what if's of history.
Chickening out of his coop more like
On chickening out, this is a video of Jason Zadrozny and a chicken, accusing the Leeanderthal Man of chickening out of hustings. Chicken is useless - did not even peck the bugger for chickening out of his own criminal trial.
The Farage thing isn't really about Putin. It's about what moral responsibility Farage thinks Britain has to help people in other countries enjoy what should be universal democratic freedoms. And the answer, for him, is none whatsoever. There's not even a threshold. Zero. Zilch.
It's incredibly revealing. It's also a feature of the new far right, everywhere. Not even "our people first" but "our people only". It is absolutely appeasement and alien to Western diplomatic ethics since WW2. And don't imagine it would have been any different IN WW2, either.
Isn't the point more a simpler one of capability?
Entering WW1 we were the richest and most powerful country in the world. Entering WW2, whilst damaged by WW1 to the point of no longer being the world's leading economy, still very wealthy comparitively (with the Empire to liquidate), with an economy that had recovered well during the 1930s (under very strict non-socialist policies please note), and a leader in manufacturing and military technology.
Now, we're what we are now. Nobody is more patriotic than myself here - sometimes I think I'm one of the few here who believes in our potential as an independent nation - but we are simply not in a position to fight, or even contribute meaningfully, to world conflict. We just abolished virgin steel production. We have no large scale manufacturing base. We're massively indebted with a large structural deficit. Net zero, immigration, and welfare commitments are crippling us. It's not a case of nasty people like Nigel Farage undermining our resolve, and people not being willing to work as ARP wardens or build Anderson shelters because they've been listening to nasty Nigel, it's that their "our people only" approach is literally the ONLY feasible stance we have at this time.
But we're not talking about material aid. We're talking about moral support.
Unequivocally condemning Putin for invading a neighbour.
He can't do it.
Moral responsibility is not the same as moral support. I don't think anyone minds giving Zelensky some tea and sympathy, but that's not the same as writing a blank cheque.
He doesn’t want tea and sympathy, he needs guns and ammo.
Exactly. The former we can easily give. Unlimited amounts of the other (or money to buy them with) we need to consider more carefully. I understand your perspective on this and it does you immense credit. But I do wonder whether making Ukraine the endless theatre of a smouldering war is right for anyone.
No-one wants an endless war, what needs to happen is Putin’s orcs driven back to Russia by the most overwhelming military assault seen since WWII, and then a Korea-style DMZ set up between the two countries enforced by European militaries.
The more I think about it, the more Farage's comments feel like a huge mistake the Tories should be exploiting. NOT because of his views on the origins of the war, but because it can be painted as proof that he is literally a paid Putinite puppet. He has appeared on Russia Today, he did so after Crimea
That will be deadly for a lot of his potential voters. That's not "deeply patriotic", is it?
I guess the Tories have to be wary of the libel laws, but they could surely chuck out some innuendo. A screenshot of him on Russia Today, his quotes about Ukraine, and just a question - "who is he working for"?
That could be brutally effective and drive down the Reform vote well under 15%, potentially saving the Tories from disaster. This is a gift. Are they going to take it?
The Tories are pretty screwed if Reform get anything above 10% (and pretty badly hurt even if it is below that), but they surely should be aiming to drive it down, and that requires both push and pull factors - appeal to what Reform voters want, the pull, but also highlight Farage and his party's unpalatable views on things, the push.
Nothing much so far seems to have made Reform minded people waver - sure, some people will still agree with Farage over it, but it's about the only thing he's offered up which might shake a few voters loose if the Tories go after it.
Quite so
This is - potentially - the first bit of real luck the Tories have had in the entire campaign. But gaining the benefit requires them to go on the offensive, against Farage. "He's in Putin's pocket, here is the proof"
And I loathe the Tories and want them destroyed, so this is not cheerleading; I can simply perceive a major opportunity. Same as I saw for the Lib Dems on the EU (which they have not taken, either)
If the Tories don't exploit this it means
1. They really have given up
or
2. Their entire campaign team really is infested with Labour/Reform traitors, trying to sabotage them from the inside
If this results in a loss of support by Reform, we are just back to the perennial question of where it will go.
If it reduces the Labour lead over the Tories at all, I doubt it will do so by very much. The impression from the polls is that the growth in Reform support since Farage's putsch has drawn from both Labour and the Tories.
Depends if it affects more the 2019 ConRef switchers who'd already gone over or the recent undecideds who have leapt aboard
No - the polls were suggesting much the same before Farage elected himself leader. Perhaps a small net gain for the Tories, but substantial percentages of Labour and NV.
The polls had 10% or more Reform support prior to Farage. That support had come almost entirely from 2019 Con voters. I'm not saying they come back but if that was where any Putin reaction came from it would likely advantage the Tories more. If recent converts then a wash
"The Queensland effect, it was said, was what happened in 1995 when a moribund conservative opposition trailing in polls, in Queensland successfully appealed to the electorate to vote against the government because its grin was too smug and its majority was too large."
Didn't the Conservatives here try something similar in 2005? I half-remember a cinema ad set to Take That Look Off Your Face.
Easier to pull off when you're already in opposition. I suspect a lot of voters will think "yeah, giving Starmer a huge majority won't be ideal, but we really really really want to kick Sunak."
Yeah, the opposition thing is really fundamental to this strategy. The most basic dynamic of democracies is that governments exit office in elections. With a few exceptions, like South Africa and Liverpool City.
In Farage I see someone who from a public platform has never uttered one word of kindness towards the fellow citizens he is not trying to recruit, never extended a conciliating hand to anyone who differs, never built a bridge or talked about compromise, and never indicated sympathy with (or even interest in) a contrary opinion, or any willingness to reconsider his own. The grin is broad but the vive is negativeL whom or what do we hate? Come hate with me.
I don't think it is quite the same thing as the extreme offensiveness and odiousness that Trump displays, where is just so vulgar and unpleasant all the time even if you agree with him on 90% of things, as Farage does have a kind of chummy, earnest kind of charismatic appeal. He can come across as pretty ordinary, despite being a professional politician for decades.
Farage is a classic con man. He wants you to buy whatever snake oil he's peddling. As long as you are about to buy he will be your friend. But it's superficial. There's no sympathy, or kindness as Parris says. He's out to cheat you, so he despises you
Same with Boris Johnson. Trump is different. I'm not sure why that phenomenon works when he's not even trying to con you.
The Farage thing isn't really about Putin. It's about what moral responsibility Farage thinks Britain has to help people in other countries enjoy what should be universal democratic freedoms. And the answer, for him, is none whatsoever. There's not even a threshold. Zero. Zilch.
It's incredibly revealing. It's also a feature of the new far right, everywhere. Not even "our people first" but "our people only". It is absolutely appeasement and alien to Western diplomatic ethics since WW2. And don't imagine it would have been any different IN WW2, either
It is because of this sort of centrist utopian drivel (paid for if implemented by taxpayers - not those spouting the drivel) that Reform are getting more than 2% in this election.
They know who pays for such adventures, both in pounds and the lives of their children. One reason Sunaks conscription wheeze was such an own goal
Had other Reform voters being touring Ukraine the last weeks like Leon, then he might have a point, but I suspect he is the only potential Reform voter to have set foot in Ukraine, possibly ever.
Meanwhile Farage is at an outdoor barbecue in Jaywick, Mail and Telegraph comments on their story are overwhelmingly supportive and the Mail articles are now well down the "Top Stories" list on metaphorical page 94 with the usual ex officer warmonger telegraph columnists who think invading bad places is the solution to everything foaming about it.
Indeed. They've just uploaded still more maps - including more large scale OS maps of much of the UK - so far as copyright allows. And I really like the Lidar - peering under tree cover at old earthworks.
ANME update: Postal ballot has arrived and it didn't occur to me before looking at it that @RochdalePioneers name is alphabetically first on the list. Anybody know how much of a boost that's worth? It is a small boost, isn't it?
It’s a bigger boost in a multi-vote election, or a preferential election. In single member FPTP it probably isn’t worth that much.
Indeed. They've just uploaded still more maps - including more large scale OS maps of much of the UK - so far as copyright allows. And I really like the Lidar - peering under tree cover at old earthworks.
(And there is also an overlay option, of course.)
I want the Definitive Map and Statement for Nottinghamshire.
I don't think it makes a lot of difference one way or the other. A majority of more than 50 is secure and an elective dictatorship, that is the way our system works. A majority of 250 doesn't give more power than that.
And, after this election, it appears our scope for what is possible is about to be significantly expanded. If Labour can gain 250 seats in an election they can lose them again. We just have to accept that things are more volatile than they were.
Politics has been volatile for an age. Look at the 1997 Winchester result in the election - then in the by-election.
That’s not really volatility though - that was the voters making clear to the Tories that you don’t try to overturn elections
Indeed. They've just uploaded still more maps - including more large scale OS maps of much of the UK - so far as copyright allows. And I really like the Lidar - peering under tree cover at old earthworks.
(And there is also an overlay option, of course.)
I want the Definitive Map and Statement for Nottinghamshire.
Isn't that held by the county council, presumably? Not the OS.
Indeed. They've just uploaded still more maps - including more large scale OS maps of much of the UK - so far as copyright allows. And I really like the Lidar - peering under tree cover at old earthworks.
(And there is also an overlay option, of course.)
I want the Definitive Map and Statement for Nottinghamshire.
Isn't that held by the county council, presumably? Not the OS.
Yes, but not online in any useful form.
In Derbyshire it's just another layer of data on their mapping system.
For me to inspect something is a 50 mile round trip, so it's easier to put an FOI in.
If I did that with all the footpaths I need to know about, they would have a fugue.
The more I think about it, the more Farage's comments feel like a huge mistake the Tories should be exploiting. NOT because of his views on the origins of the war, but because it can be painted as proof that he is literally a paid Putinite puppet. He has appeared on Russia Today, he did so after Crimea
That will be deadly for a lot of his potential voters. That's not "deeply patriotic", is it?
I guess the Tories have to be wary of the libel laws, but they could surely chuck out some innuendo. A screenshot of him on Russia Today, his quotes about Ukraine, and just a question - "who is he working for"?
That could be brutally effective and drive down the Reform vote well under 15%, potentially saving the Tories from disaster. This is a gift. Are they going to take it?
The Tories are pretty screwed if Reform get anything above 10% (and pretty badly hurt even if it is below that), but they surely should be aiming to drive it down, and that requires both push and pull factors - appeal to what Reform voters want, the pull, but also highlight Farage and his party's unpalatable views on things, the push.
Nothing much so far seems to have made Reform minded people waver - sure, some people will still agree with Farage over it, but it's about the only thing he's offered up which might shake a few voters loose if the Tories go after it.
Reform and possible Reform voters are a mixed bag. So it's possible that a decline in Reform's fortunes could be neutral or adverse to the Tories. people are voting Reform not least because they don't like Tories. If you don't vote Reform, the next obvious home for you vote is Labour. A Reform vote reduces the Tory vote by one. A Labour vote reduces it by two.
The Tory on Any Questions accepting that we should at least “have a conversation” about electoral reform…a first straw in the wind?
The system that has worked to our advantage since 1945 now looks to be working against us. Boo hoo....
Sorry I want electoral reform but it's not a priority I can think of 20-30 other issues that are more pressing because the previous Government did nothing to solve any of those issues.
Labour would probably focus on quick, easy to achieve electoral changes rather than spend time and capital on it. Hence votes at 16 but surprisingly not changes to voter ID rules.
The Tory on Any Questions accepting that we should at least “have a conversation” about electoral reform…a first straw in the wind?
The system that has worked to our advantage since 1945 now looks to be working against us. Boo hoo....
Sorry I want electoral reform but it's not a priority I can think of 20-30 other issues that are more pressing because the previous Government did nothing to solve any of those issues.
Indeed.
I’d also insist on House of Lords reform as part of the change to the voting system.
Bonkers to have more unelected peers than actual MPs.
Labour have announced some fairly straightforward proposals to that effect, which could be an indication that the larger issue will be parked after some easy reductions - eg unelected peers out, age limits.
The only peers who are elected are hereditaries though!
If you meant just kick them out then you have a wholly appointed house, which would be a disaster
In Farage I see someone who from a public platform has never uttered one word of kindness towards the fellow citizens he is not trying to recruit, never extended a conciliating hand to anyone who differs, never built a bridge or talked about compromise, and never indicated sympathy with (or even interest in) a contrary opinion, or any willingness to reconsider his own. The grin is broad but the vive is negativeL whom or what do we hate? Come hate with me.
I don't think it is quite the same thing as the extreme offensiveness and odiousness that Trump displays, where is just so vulgar and unpleasant all the time even if you agree with him on 90% of things, as Farage does have a kind of chummy, earnest kind of charismatic appeal. He can come across as pretty ordinary, despite being a professional politician for decades.
After the massive villification that Farage gets, and is still getting, especially from those invested in the European project, both still inside it, or longing to be back inside it, is it really down to him to be walking around offering olive branches to all and sundry? He's leading a (peaceful) political insurgency ffs.
The point being made is not about Farage not reaching out to uber Remainers. It’s that he doesn’t reach out to anyone.
In Farage I see someone who from a public platform has never uttered one word of kindness towards the fellow citizens he is not trying to recruit, never extended a conciliating hand to anyone who differs, never built a bridge or talked about compromise, and never indicated sympathy with (or even interest in) a contrary opinion, or any willingness to reconsider his own. The grin is broad but the vive is negativeL whom or what do we hate? Come hate with me.
I don't think it is quite the same thing as the extreme offensiveness and odiousness that Trump displays, where is just so vulgar and unpleasant all the time even if you agree with him on 90% of things, as Farage does have a kind of chummy, earnest kind of charismatic appeal. He can come across as pretty ordinary, despite being a professional politician for decades.
After the massive villification that Farage gets, and is still getting, especially from those invested in the European project, both still inside it, or longing to be back inside it, is it really down to him to be walking around offering olive branches to all and sundry? He's leading a (peaceful) political insurgency ffs.
The point being made is not about Farage not reaching out to uber Remainers. It’s that he doesn’t reach out to anyone.
Farage: The people of the UK should be able to decide whether they want to be in the EU Also Farage: The people of Eastern Europe shouldn't be able to decide whether they want to be in the EU
In Farage I see someone who from a public platform has never uttered one word of kindness towards the fellow citizens he is not trying to recruit, never extended a conciliating hand to anyone who differs, never built a bridge or talked about compromise, and never indicated sympathy with (or even interest in) a contrary opinion, or any willingness to reconsider his own. The grin is broad but the vive is negativeL whom or what do we hate? Come hate with me.
I don't think it is quite the same thing as the extreme offensiveness and odiousness that Trump displays, where is just so vulgar and unpleasant all the time even if you agree with him on 90% of things, as Farage does have a kind of chummy, earnest kind of charismatic appeal. He can come across as pretty ordinary, despite being a professional politician for decades.
After the massive villification that Farage gets, and is still getting, especially from those invested in the European project, both still inside it, or longing to be back inside it, is it really down to him to be walking around offering olive branches to all and sundry? He's leading a (peaceful) political insurgency ffs.
The point being made is not about Farage not reaching out to uber Remainers. It’s that he doesn’t reach out to anyone.
Farage: The people of the UK should be able to decide whether they want to be in the EU Also Farage: The people of Eastern Europe shouldn't be able to decide whether they want to be in the EU
Well that implies that the other European countries don’t have a say in the matter of who joins.
Have made my tiny (few pounds each) election bets:
LibDems to win in my local (LibDem-Tory marginal) seat: 1/10 LibDems under 56.5 seats: 1/1 Conservatives to get more votes than Reform: 1/3 Conservatives to get most seats (except Labour): 3/10 Conservatives 150-200 seats lost: 7/1
All with Ladbrokes. Just picked a few whose odds pleased me. Not one of PB's professional bettors.
Most confident about my local constituency one - close to a certainty. Also hopeful of the 7/1 conservative seats bet, especially if turnout is low.
In Farage I see someone who from a public platform has never uttered one word of kindness towards the fellow citizens he is not trying to recruit, never extended a conciliating hand to anyone who differs, never built a bridge or talked about compromise, and never indicated sympathy with (or even interest in) a contrary opinion, or any willingness to reconsider his own. The grin is broad but the vive is negativeL whom or what do we hate? Come hate with me.
I don't think it is quite the same thing as the extreme offensiveness and odiousness that Trump displays, where is just so vulgar and unpleasant all the time even if you agree with him on 90% of things, as Farage does have a kind of chummy, earnest kind of charismatic appeal. He can come across as pretty ordinary, despite being a professional politician for decades.
After the massive villification that Farage gets, and is still getting, especially from those invested in the European project, both still inside it, or longing to be back inside it, is it really down to him to be walking around offering olive branches to all and sundry? He's leading a (peaceful) political insurgency ffs.
The point being made is not about Farage not reaching out to uber Remainers. It’s that he doesn’t reach out to anyone.
Farage: The people of the UK should be able to decide whether they want to be in the EU Also Farage: The people of Eastern Europe shouldn't be able to decide whether they want to be in the EU
Well that implies that the other European countries don’t have a say in the matter of who joins.
The decision to apply to join, that should be entirely up to the country concerned, and third parties shouldn’t start a war to impose a different view.
In Farage I see someone who from a public platform has never uttered one word of kindness towards the fellow citizens he is not trying to recruit, never extended a conciliating hand to anyone who differs, never built a bridge or talked about compromise, and never indicated sympathy with (or even interest in) a contrary opinion, or any willingness to reconsider his own. The grin is broad but the vive is negativeL whom or what do we hate? Come hate with me.
I don't think it is quite the same thing as the extreme offensiveness and odiousness that Trump displays, where is just so vulgar and unpleasant all the time even if you agree with him on 90% of things, as Farage does have a kind of chummy, earnest kind of charismatic appeal. He can come across as pretty ordinary, despite being a professional politician for decades.
After the massive villification that Farage gets, and is still getting, especially from those invested in the European project, both still inside it, or longing to be back inside it, is it really down to him to be walking around offering olive branches to all and sundry? He's leading a (peaceful) political insurgency ffs.
The point being made is not about Farage not reaching out to uber Remainers. It’s that he doesn’t reach out to anyone.
Farage: The people of the UK should be able to decide whether they want to be in the EU Also Farage: The people of Eastern Europe shouldn't be able to decide whether they want to be in the EU
All true. You could add that the Reform manifesto is committed to UK membership of NATO, while Farage suggests some of our allies shouldn't be.
Have made my tiny (few pounds each) election bets:
LibDems to win in my local (LibDem-Tory marginal) seat: 1/10 LibDems under 56.5 seats: 1/1 Conservatives to get more votes than Reform: 1/3 Conservatives to get most seats (except Labour): 3/10 Conservatives 150-200 seats lost: 7/1
All with Ladbrokes. Just picked a few whose odds pleased me. Not one of PB's professional bettors.
Most confident about my local constituency one - close to a certainty. Also hopeful of the 7/1 conservative seats bet, especially if turnout is low.
Just trying to formulate what the Tories would consider relative 'success' from the doldrums they've put themselves in? I'm guessing the minimum aim must be to be HM opposition with enough MPs to properly shadow the government and run a 1922 committee plus provide a deputy speaker, so, what, 110 MPs minimum? They're aiming no doubt to beat the 156 low total
110 would be uncomfortably tight, I think.
There'll inevitably be some MPs who aren't suitable for a formal role (allowing for illness, disaffection, being a bit too independently-minded, etc), so they'd really need to have closer to 125-130 in order to run a full Official Opposition in the traditional style.
Even at that level, they might be well advised to double up on some of the more junior shadow positions.
John Major's interim shadow cabinet in May 1997 might be a good model until the leadership election is finished, and possibly for the whole of the first session. And didn't either Hague or IDS make a virtue of having a slimmed-down shadow cabinet at some point?
In Farage I see someone who from a public platform has never uttered one word of kindness towards the fellow citizens he is not trying to recruit, never extended a conciliating hand to anyone who differs, never built a bridge or talked about compromise, and never indicated sympathy with (or even interest in) a contrary opinion, or any willingness to reconsider his own. The grin is broad but the vive is negativeL whom or what do we hate? Come hate with me.
I don't think it is quite the same thing as the extreme offensiveness and odiousness that Trump displays, where is just so vulgar and unpleasant all the time even if you agree with him on 90% of things, as Farage does have a kind of chummy, earnest kind of charismatic appeal. He can come across as pretty ordinary, despite being a professional politician for decades.
After the massive villification that Farage gets, and is still getting, especially from those invested in the European project, both still inside it, or longing to be back inside it, is it really down to him to be walking around offering olive branches to all and sundry? He's leading a (peaceful) political insurgency ffs.
The point being made is not about Farage not reaching out to uber Remainers. It’s that he doesn’t reach out to anyone.
Farage: The people of the UK should be able to decide whether they want to be in the EU Also Farage: The people of Eastern Europe shouldn't be able to decide whether they want to be in the EU
Well that implies that the other European countries don’t have a say in the matter of who joins.
The decision to apply to join, that should be entirely up to the country concerned, and third parties shouldn’t start a war to impose a different view.
That was true until around this time yesterday, when Farage showed his true colours in public. A lot of disaffected Tories might have been thinking about a protest vote, but will now either sit on their hands or revert back to their usual home.
Just trying to formulate what the Tories would consider relative 'success' from the doldrums they've put themselves in? I'm guessing the minimum aim must be to be HM opposition with enough MPs to properly shadow the government and run a 1922 committee plus provide a deputy speaker, so, what, 110 MPs minimum? They're aiming no doubt to beat the 156 low total
110 would be uncomfortably tight, I think.
There'll inevitably be some MPs who aren't suitable for a formal role (allowing for illness, disaffection, being a bit too independently-minded, etc), so they'd really need to have closer to 125-130 in order to run a full Official Opposition in the traditional style.
Even at that level, they might be well advised to double up on some of the more junior shadow positions.
John Major's interim shadow cabinet in May 1997 might be a good model until the leadership election is finished, and possibly for the whole of the first session. And didn't either Hague or IDS make a virtue of having a slimmed-down shadow cabinet at some point?
Pretty grim prospects for them and for proper opposition really
And preavhing to other centrists who can't stand the sight of Farage.
Not especially preachy I think. But he sets out a case as to how and why he is interpreting the instincts of that large group of moderate liberal, minded centrists who have made sure that Corbyn was never PM, and now intend to make sure neither the Tories nor Reform govern the country from 2024-2029.
To particularise them; the group of voters who possess these three attributes: They vote. Their votes go to Con, Lab or LD. Whoever they generally support, they all understand why other moderates would always or sometimes vote for another of the three parties. Approximate size: 20,000,000?
I remember my very first trip to Edinburgh. I was about 25. I wandered around the castle, the cathedral, the war memorials, the Georgian bits and the medieval bits. Everything. It was great fun and I had my first pint of 4 shillings of whatever they call it
But I recall it was that trip that made me realise: Scotland is very definitely a nation. With a sense of itself and a proud and distinct culture. Only various accidents of history/geography prevented it from being as independent as Denmark or Norway, say
I am still a firm unionist. Obvs. I believe all nations of the UK benefit from this ancient alliance, despite recent evidence otherwise. But I can also see why the Nats feel very differently
From this I derive several lessons. The most relevant is this: to understand something complex and political and historical you have to see it. With your own eyes. See it, smell it, taste it, hear it
No amount of book learning can make up for this. Eg I did not understand the concept of “transnistria” until I recently went there and saw what it looks like and how it relates to Moldova/russia/ukraine
Ditto Ukraine and the war. You can’t understand it until you see it, taste it, hear it. And you can’t understand why Ukraine is simultaneously an independent nation and yet also intrinsically Russian (in places) until you go to Kyiv and Odessa
I remember my very first trip to Edinburgh. I was about 25. I wandered around the castle, the cathedral, the war memorials, the Georgian bits and the medieval bits. Everything. It was great fun and I had my first pint of 4 shillings of whatever they call it
But I recall it was that trip that made me realise: Scotland is very definitely a nation. With a sense of itself and a proud and distinct culture. Only various accidents of history/geography prevented it from being as independent as Denmark or Norway, say
I am still a firm unionist. Obvs. I believe all nations of the UK benefit from this ancient alliance, despite recent evidence otherwise. But I can also see why the Nats feel very differently
From this I derive several lessons. The most relevant is this: to understand something complex and political and historical you have to see it. With your own eyes. See it, smell it, taste it, hear it
No amount of book learning can make up for this. Eg I did not understand the concept of “transnistria” until I recently went there and saw what it looks like and how it relates to Moldova/russia/ukraine
Ditto Ukraine and the war. You can’t understand it until you see it, taste it, hear it. And you can’t understand why Ukraine is simultaneously an independent nation and yet also intrinsically Russian (in places) until you go to Kyiv and Odessa
I remember my very first trip to Edinburgh. I was about 25. I wandered around the castle, the cathedral, the war memorials, the Georgian bits and the medieval bits. Everything. It was great fun and I had my first pint of 4 shillings of whatever they call it
But I recall it was that trip that made me realise: Scotland is very definitely a nation. With a sense of itself and a proud and distinct culture. Only various accidents of history/geography prevented it from being as independent as Denmark or Norway, say
I am still a firm unionist. Obvs. I believe all nations of the UK benefit from this ancient alliance, despite recent evidence otherwise. But I can also see why the Nats feel very differently
From this I derive several lessons. The most relevant is this: to understand something complex and political and historical you have to see it. With your own eyes. See it, smell it, taste it, hear it
No amount of book learning can make up for this. Eg I did not understand the concept of “transnistria” until I recently went there and saw what it looks like and how it relates to Moldova/russia/ukraine
Ditto Ukraine and the war. You can’t understand it until you see it, taste it, hear it. And you can’t understand why Ukraine is simultaneously an independent nation and yet also intrinsically Russian (in places) until you go to Kyiv and Odessa
70/- or 80/-, probably ...
Yes. One of them! In a subterranean bar underneath princes street
Can’t say I enjoyed the pint. But I loved Edinburgh: one of the worlds most handsome capitals
I don't think anyone minds giving Zelensky some tea and sympathy
Nigel Fucking Farage minds.
He did actually say Putin was in the wrong for invading Ukraine.
Perhaps people would do wise to read what he actually said rather than the headline
Nah, that’s too much of a stretch.
It's more subtle and pervasive that that. When Farage discusses, for example the EU or refugees, he takes a position and that's that. When dealing, for example, with Putin, Ukraine, NATO, Russia, Trump's behaviour there is always a 'but' and a qualification. It's a pattern, and either means his is the politics of the demagogue and/or that he owes some interesting political favours. Or both.
And he nods and winks carefully to QAnon style conspiracy people.
I remember my very first trip to Edinburgh. I was about 25. I wandered around the castle, the cathedral, the war memorials, the Georgian bits and the medieval bits. Everything. It was great fun and I had my first pint of 4 shillings of whatever they call it
But I recall it was that trip that made me realise: Scotland is very definitely a nation. With a sense of itself and a proud and distinct culture. Only various accidents of history/geography prevented it from being as independent as Denmark or Norway, say
I am still a firm unionist. Obvs. I believe all nations of the UK benefit from this ancient alliance, despite recent evidence otherwise. But I can also see why the Nats feel very differently
From this I derive several lessons. The most relevant is this: to understand something complex and political and historical you have to see it. With your own eyes. See it, smell it, taste it, hear it
No amount of book learning can make up for this. Eg I did not understand the concept of “transnistria” until I recently went there and saw what it looks like and how it relates to Moldova/russia/ukraine
Ditto Ukraine and the war. You can’t understand it until you see it, taste it, hear it. And you can’t understand why Ukraine is simultaneously an independent nation and yet also intrinsically Russian (in places) until you go to Kyiv and Odessa
I don't think anyone minds giving Zelensky some tea and sympathy
Nigel Fucking Farage minds.
He did actually say Putin was in the wrong for invading Ukraine.
Perhaps people would do wise to read what he actually said rather than the headline
Nah, that’s too much of a stretch.
It's more subtle and pervasive that that. When Farage discusses, for example the EU or refugees, he takes a position and that's that. When dealing, for example, with Putin, Ukraine, NATO, Russia, Trump's behaviour there is always a 'but' and a qualification. It's a pattern, and either means his is the politics of the demagogue and/or that he owes some interesting political favours. Or both.
And he nods and winks carefully to QAnon style conspiracy people.
On the other hand prime minster Farage would not have allowed in 2.4 million migrants in 3 years
I remember my very first trip to Edinburgh. I was about 25. I wandered around the castle, the cathedral, the war memorials, the Georgian bits and the medieval bits. Everything. It was great fun and I had my first pint of 4 shillings of whatever they call it
But I recall it was that trip that made me realise: Scotland is very definitely a nation. With a sense of itself and a proud and distinct culture. Only various accidents of history/geography prevented it from being as independent as Denmark or Norway, say
I am still a firm unionist. Obvs. I believe all nations of the UK benefit from this ancient alliance, despite recent evidence otherwise. But I can also see why the Nats feel very differently
From this I derive several lessons. The most relevant is this: to understand something complex and political and historical you have to see it. With your own eyes. See it, smell it, taste it, hear it
No amount of book learning can make up for this. Eg I did not understand the concept of “transnistria” until I recently went there and saw what it looks like and how it relates to Moldova/russia/ukraine
Ditto Ukraine and the war. You can’t understand it until you see it, taste it, hear it. And you can’t understand why Ukraine is simultaneously an independent nation and yet also intrinsically Russian (in places) until you go to Kyiv and Odessa
70/- or 80/-, probably ...
These days more like 120/- in Edinburgh.
More like 100/- actually (if one's not so ill-advised as to go in Arts Festival time). But the shilling prices were actually traditional names for strengths/types of beer, presumably you know that? From the price per barrel long before when even Leon was young.
I don't think anyone minds giving Zelensky some tea and sympathy
Nigel Fucking Farage minds.
He did actually say Putin was in the wrong for invading Ukraine.
Perhaps people would do wise to read what he actually said rather than the headline
Nah, that’s too much of a stretch.
It's more subtle and pervasive that that. When Farage discusses, for example the EU or refugees, he takes a position and that's that. When dealing, for example, with Putin, Ukraine, NATO, Russia, Trump's behaviour there is always a 'but' and a qualification. It's a pattern, and either means his is the politics of the demagogue and/or that he owes some interesting political favours. Or both.
And he nods and winks carefully to QAnon style conspiracy people.
On the other hand prime minster Farage would not have allowed in 2.4 million migrants in 3 years
The Economist only has Labour clearing the winning post by 55 seats, which doesn't seem that many, (although of course you double that figure to get the majority).
Just trying to formulate what the Tories would consider relative 'success' from the doldrums they've put themselves in? I'm guessing the minimum aim must be to be HM opposition with enough MPs to properly shadow the government and run a 1922 committee plus provide a deputy speaker, so, what, 110 MPs minimum? They're aiming no doubt to beat the 156 low total
110 would be uncomfortably tight, I think.
There'll inevitably be some MPs who aren't suitable for a formal role (allowing for illness, disaffection, being a bit too independently-minded, etc), so they'd really need to have closer to 125-130 in order to run a full Official Opposition in the traditional style.
Even at that level, they might be well advised to double up on some of the more junior shadow positions.
John Major's interim shadow cabinet in May 1997 might be a good model until the leadership election is finished, and possibly for the whole of the first session. And didn't either Hague or IDS make a virtue of having a slimmed-down shadow cabinet at some point?
Pretty grim prospects for them and for proper opposition really
Yes, I would say 125 or so seats would allow them to continue business as usual from the opposition benches.
Don't forget they have a lot of Councillors and the whole Party infrastructure which goes with being in Office for thirteen years (never mind the couple of hundred before that.) It wouldn't all vanish overnight.
They must at all costs avoid dropping behind the LDs. The loss of influence becomes dramatic then,and there's always the danger the public quite likes the look of the new Opposition.
If they do manage to retain that kind of number, my main concern about their future would resolve around what sort of Party the New Conservatives would be. If you cast your eye down the list of likely survivors, the prospects don't look great. You'd have to expect some vicious infighting.
The Economist only has Labour clearing the winning post by 55 seats, which doesn't seem that many, (although of course you double that figure to get the majority).
If they do manage to retain that kind of number, my main concern about their future would resolve around what sort of Party the New Conservatives would be. If you cast your eye down the list of likely survivors, the prospects don't look great. You'd have to expect some vicious infighting.
This has been mentioned elsewhere.
While you might expect there to be a fight, the history of the non-batshit wing is that they don't fight.
The Economist only has Labour clearing the winning post by 55 seats, which doesn't seem that many, (although of course you double that figure to get the majority).
Just trying to formulate what the Tories would consider relative 'success' from the doldrums they've put themselves in? I'm guessing the minimum aim must be to be HM opposition with enough MPs to properly shadow the government and run a 1922 committee plus provide a deputy speaker, so, what, 110 MPs minimum? They're aiming no doubt to beat the 156 low total
110 would be uncomfortably tight, I think.
There'll inevitably be some MPs who aren't suitable for a formal role (allowing for illness, disaffection, being a bit too independently-minded, etc), so they'd really need to have closer to 125-130 in order to run a full Official Opposition in the traditional style.
Even at that level, they might be well advised to double up on some of the more junior shadow positions.
John Major's interim shadow cabinet in May 1997 might be a good model until the leadership election is finished, and possibly for the whole of the first session. And didn't either Hague or IDS make a virtue of having a slimmed-down shadow cabinet at some point?
Pretty grim prospects for them and for proper opposition really
Even if they do end up at the top end of their expectations, going into opposition is going to be a huge wrench for them.
If IDS fails in his bid for re-election, they should get him into the lords asap and lean heavily on his, Hague's and Howard's experience. People like Michael Ancram too, and whoever else they can get who had a senior role in opposition.
I really hope they've got a team looking at past experiences of post-defeat leaders - not just Tories, but Milliband too.
In Farage I see someone who from a public platform has never uttered one word of kindness towards the fellow citizens he is not trying to recruit, never extended a conciliating hand to anyone who differs, never built a bridge or talked about compromise, and never indicated sympathy with (or even interest in) a contrary opinion, or any willingness to reconsider his own. The grin is broad but the vive is negativeL whom or what do we hate? Come hate with me.
I don't think it is quite the same thing as the extreme offensiveness and odiousness that Trump displays, where is just so vulgar and unpleasant all the time even if you agree with him on 90% of things, as Farage does have a kind of chummy, earnest kind of charismatic appeal. He can come across as pretty ordinary, despite being a professional politician for decades.
After the massive villification that Farage gets, and is still getting, especially from those invested in the European project, both still inside it, or longing to be back inside it, is it really down to him to be walking around offering olive branches to all and sundry? He's leading a (peaceful) political insurgency ffs.
The point being made is not about Farage not reaching out to uber Remainers. It’s that he doesn’t reach out to anyone.
Farage: The people of the UK should be able to decide whether they want to be in the EU Also Farage: The people of Eastern Europe shouldn't be able to decide whether they want to be in the EU
Well that implies that the other European countries don’t have a say in the matter of who joins.
No it doesn't. Do you really need someone to explain this to you?
A country in the EU can decide to leave without the consent of the rest of the EU. The same is not true for countries wishing to join the EU. So, Farage’s thesis is that the fault lies with the countries that enabled this expansion, and not with the people in Eastern Europe, which is not what was described in the previous post.
Not that I agree with it, as I have stated elsewhere
I'm tempted to take a nibble of Con 150 to 200 seats, on the basis that if 'the fear' works, the lower end of that is probably doable. I get the feeling they'll either hold a 97 position or collapse way below, not the in between
If they do manage to retain that kind of number, my main concern about their future would resolve around what sort of Party the New Conservatives would be. If you cast your eye down the list of likely survivors, the prospects don't look great. You'd have to expect some vicious infighting.
This has been mentioned elsewhere.
While you might expect there to be a fight, the history of the non-batshit wing is that they don't fight.
Which is largely why we are where we are now.
With the most left wing conservative government in history?
I think it will be bad for the country for Labour to have huge majority, but I think it would be even worse for the country to re-elect the current collection of spineless twits, incompetents and swivel-eyed loons.
ANME update: Postal ballot has arrived and it didn't occur to me before looking at it that @RochdalePioneers name is alphabetically first on the list. Anybody know how much of a boost that's worth? It is a small boost, isn't it?
It’s a bigger boost in a multi-vote election, or a preferential election. In single member FPTP it probably isn’t worth that much.
"Vote Aaron Aardvark for electoral reform".
Aaron A Aardvark was the first citizen to die when Judge Cal decided to execute the whole of Megacity 1.
Comments
They seem to have turned up to a gangland shootout with their boxing gloves and a copy of the Queensbury rules.
Found it (don’t worry, it wasn’t a giant effort).
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/21/james-forsyth-journalist-key-rishi-sunak-aide-profile
Unequivocally condemning Putin for invading a neighbour.
He can't do it.
Because you wouldn't, would you?
Lab +5%
Ref +12% (compared to Brexit Party)
Con -21%
PC nc
LD +1%
Grn +3%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Wales#Results
10 seats saved could be a major chunk of the post election parliamentary party as things stand.
Last weekend of campaigning in France before the first round. RN ahead , Front Pop not far behind Macron in the doldrums but nobody forecast to get a clear majority
https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/en-direct-legislatives-a-une-semaine-du-premier-tour-un-week-end-de-campagne-sous-haute-tension-20240622
Financially all of them on track to bankrupt France according to Forecast Institute.
@murphy_simon
Exc: An ex-Kremlin minister attended the cash-strapped Tories’ summer fundraising bash – just days after Rishi Sunak blasted Vladimir Putin.
https://x.com/murphy_simon/status/1804519523048927586
But maybe not many? eg we were discussing North Herefordshire yesterday, and my theory that the heavy pollution of the Wye is pushing this usually highly Tory seat towards the Greens. Here is the data
North Herefordshire Constituency Voting Intention:
GRN: 39% (+30)
CON: 28% (-35)
LAB: 15% (=)
RFM: 13% (New)
LDM: 4% (-9)
Other: 1% (+1)
Via
@wethinkpolling
, 6-14 Jun.
Changes w/ GE2019 Notional.
That Green vote looks frothy to me, are they really going tio get 39%??? Really? I can imagine that falling back as the vote nears. Then the 13% for Reform is crucial. If half of them go back to the Tories - yes I am REALLOCATING - then suddenly the Tories could retain the seat
Like I said I can see that happening in a dozen seats around trhe UK, if the Tories can damage the Reform brand
Brexit encapsulated
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jun/04/worlddispatch.election2001
https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/trumps-lewd-talk-about-daughter-ivanka-in-front-of-white-house-staff-recalled-in-new-book/
There are only two possible escape routes. "Technology" or firm rightwing governments that take no shit
THIS is why it is so deeply irritating when Farage, who actually has political skill, and might push us in a rightwards directions, goes and fucks it all up - potentially - with silly, mis-timed remarks about Putin. Read the damn room, Nige
It's still a matter of trust that Mr Starmer will be reasonably moderate and reasonably sane.
I'd say we need a majority of 100-150, and at least 2 terms, with a good chance of a third term.
If we get to tread the dirt down on the political graves the current generation of Conservatives have dug for themselves, that's a bonus. I do not want political zombies like Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss reappearing in 15 years' time.
Easier to pull off when you're already in opposition. I suspect a lot of voters will think "yeah, giving Starmer a huge majority won't be ideal, but we really really really want to kick Sunak."
https://x.com/jason_zadrozny/status/1804231337915666793
"Why has Lee Anderson chickened out? 🐥🐓
After five years as a Tory, neglecting Ashfield, Lee Anderson refuses to face public or press hustings. Is he too embarrassed by his record? 👎
Ashfield deserves an MP who’s not afraid to answer tough questions and who represents **you**. 🏆🙌
Vote independent for positive change on July 4th"
LibDems to win in my local (LibDem-Tory marginal) seat: 1/10
LibDems under 56.5 seats: 1/1
Conservatives to get more votes than Reform: 1/3
Conservatives to get most seats (except Labour): 3/10
Conservatives 150-200 seats lost: 7/1
All with Ladbrokes. Just picked a few whose odds pleased me. Not one of PB's professional bettors.
Most confident about my local constituency one - close to a certainty. Also hopeful of the 7/1 conservative seats bet, especially if turnout is low.
I don't believe even at best that would be a dozen. Maybe Clacton and one or two others.
Everyone going off REF??
1992???
Jason.
Next year when constituents write to me on the envelope it will say Lee Anderson MP. If they write to you it will say Jason Zadrozny HMP.
Good luck with your court case !
https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1804235871585239061
A useful service from the National Library of Scotland for comparing a wide selection of maps side by side.
This is a 1914 OS map vs a recent OS Map I am using to compare public footpath routes with what used to be there.
https://maps.nls.uk/geo/explore/side-by-side/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR1YIggaYyUPWkGzcyDOpM8dU4I69RCQ_ls2qXJNpY8cW_xwKHwvdPeXtR0_aem_LbCFQfhgXRiqif4iPHWA_A#zoom=17.2&lat=53.13245&lon=-1.30173&layers=168&right=OSLeisure
Same with Boris Johnson. Trump is different. I'm not sure why that phenomenon works when he's not even trying to con you.
@hugorifkind
The Farage thing isn't really about Putin. It's about what moral responsibility Farage thinks Britain has to help people in other countries enjoy what should be universal democratic freedoms. And the answer, for him, is none whatsoever. There's not even a threshold. Zero. Zilch.
It's incredibly revealing. It's also a feature of the new far right, everywhere. Not even "our people first" but "our people only". It is absolutely appeasement and alien to Western diplomatic ethics since WW2. And don't imagine it would have been any different IN WW2, either
It is because of this sort of centrist utopian drivel (paid for if implemented by taxpayers - not those spouting the drivel) that Reform are getting more than 2% in this election.
They know who pays for such adventures, both in pounds and the lives of their children. One reason Sunaks conscription wheeze was such an own goal
Had other Reform voters being touring Ukraine the last weeks like Leon, then he might have a point, but I suspect he is the only potential Reform voter to have set foot in Ukraine, possibly ever.
Meanwhile Farage is at an outdoor barbecue in Jaywick, Mail and Telegraph comments on their story are overwhelmingly supportive and the Mail articles are now well down the "Top Stories" list on metaphorical page 94 with the usual ex officer warmonger telegraph columnists who think invading bad places is the solution to everything foaming about it.
(And there is also an overlay option, of course.)
What’s the problem?
In Derbyshire it's just another layer of data on their mapping system.
For me to inspect something is a 50 mile round trip, so it's easier to put an FOI in.
If I did that with all the footpaths I need to know about, they would have a fugue.
If you meant just kick them out then you have a wholly appointed house, which would be a disaster
The Conservatives are about to become utterly irrelevant. My weekend article for
@Independent
https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1804533620272414929
Replying to @Nigel_Farage
Farage: The people of the UK should be able to decide whether they want to be in the EU
Also Farage: The people of Eastern Europe shouldn't be able to decide whether they want to be in the EU
Which constituency is it?
https://x.com/MattCartoonist/status/1804536630537072652
There'll inevitably be some MPs who aren't suitable for a formal role (allowing for illness, disaffection, being a bit too independently-minded, etc), so they'd really need to have closer to 125-130 in order to run a full Official Opposition in the traditional style.
Even at that level, they might be well advised to double up on some of the more junior shadow positions.
John Major's interim shadow cabinet in May 1997 might be a good model until the leadership election is finished, and possibly for the whole of the first session. And didn't either Hague or IDS make a virtue of having a slimmed-down shadow cabinet at some point?
Perhaps people would do wise to read what he actually said rather than the headline
Nah, that’s too much of a stretch.
To particularise them; the group of voters who possess these three attributes: They vote. Their votes go to Con, Lab or LD. Whoever they generally support, they all understand why other moderates would always or sometimes vote for another of the three parties. Approximate size: 20,000,000?
But I recall it was that trip that made me realise: Scotland is very definitely a nation. With a sense of itself and a proud and distinct culture. Only various accidents of history/geography prevented it from being as independent as Denmark or Norway, say
I am still a firm unionist. Obvs. I believe all nations of the UK benefit from this ancient alliance, despite recent evidence otherwise. But I can also see why the Nats feel very differently
From this I derive several lessons. The most relevant is this: to understand something complex and political and historical you have to see it. With your own eyes. See it, smell it, taste it, hear it
No amount of book learning can make up for this. Eg I did not understand the concept of “transnistria” until I recently went there and saw what it looks like and how it relates to Moldova/russia/ukraine
Ditto Ukraine and the war. You can’t understand it until you see it, taste it, hear it. And you can’t understand why Ukraine is simultaneously an independent nation and yet also intrinsically Russian (in places) until you go to Kyiv and Odessa
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9rr7z5gk62o
Can’t say I enjoyed the pint. But I loved Edinburgh: one of the worlds most handsome capitals
And he nods and winks carefully to QAnon style conspiracy people.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/forecast
Don't forget they have a lot of Councillors and the whole Party infrastructure which goes with being in Office for thirteen years (never mind the couple of hundred before that.) It wouldn't all vanish overnight.
They must at all costs avoid dropping behind the LDs. The loss of influence becomes dramatic then,and there's always the danger the public quite likes the look of the new Opposition.
If they do manage to retain that kind of number, my main concern about their future would resolve around what sort of Party the New Conservatives would be. If you cast your eye down the list of likely survivors, the prospects don't look great. You'd have to expect some vicious infighting.
Nothing new about that though.
He would blame the French
While you might expect there to be a fight, the history of the non-batshit wing is that they don't fight.
Which is largely why we are where we are now.
A lot of CON would be privately pleased with 175.
If IDS fails in his bid for re-election, they should get him into the lords asap and lean heavily on his, Hague's and Howard's experience. People like Michael Ancram too, and whoever else they can get who had a senior role in opposition.
I really hope they've got a team looking at past experiences of post-defeat leaders - not just Tories, but Milliband too.
Not that I agree with it, as I have stated elsewhere
Extreme Geek trivia fact.