To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
And this is how Sunak gets re-elected. Lots of households where the LD/RUK waverer goes back to their regular programming.
Great to have real time insight into the thought process, and very valuable betting wise because nobody is unique (except in the sense that everyone is). Big_G_NorthWaleses, sir, thousands of 'em. I have been on a similar journeys except no wife involved and I haven't been on the site long enough for previous inconsistent statements to be raised against me.
I'm tempted to take a nibble of Con 150 to 200 seats, on the basis that if 'the fear' works, the lower end of that is probably doable. I get the feeling they'll either hold a 97 position or collapse way below, not the in between
My current feeling is the Tories are going to fall just short of 150 seats. Maybe Con 147, Lab 395, Lib 67, Ref 2 or 3, Green 2 or 3. Overall Lab majority circa 140ish. But I still took 8/1 on Con 150-200 seats earlier this week when it was on offer, as I think it's good value.
Meanwhile the really tricky decision will be whether to defer any capital disposals for the next five years, or to bugger off somewhere else for five years, assuming CGT gets bolted onto income tax and done at 45%. Decisions decisions. Either way, the CGT raise will not raise a single penny from me...
You could always just, you know, pay your taxes at the rates current when they are due.
Regarding Ukraine. In response to some of the more useful commentary today have been thinking what my position actually is, what should happen.
I think firstly, that the objective should be to de-escalate the conflict. This would be undertaken in full knowledge that it will restart when Russia thinks it has an advantage. So it would not be done naively and the first principle would be that Ukraine retains the ability to defend itself. Beyond this the goal should be to try and find a strategic solution to the issue of security in Europe, given the threat from Russia.
To change my mind about this I would need some evidence that Ukraine can actually win the war. What equipment do they need etc, what would be the strategy, have they got the people to do it. Or alternatively, that the Russian state is about to collapse. But it just appears highly resilient to me. Also, reassurance that the nuclear paradox can be overcome- a relevant factor in both scenarios. I am not going to give any weight to the 'moral argument' or being called a Putin appeaser.
What about 'de-escalate', negotiate, temporise, pause, cease fire, discuss etc to the point where, without warning, it is announced by NATO and its members that Ukraine from this moment has its treaty protections. Russia may return to fighting but these are now the terms....
NATO has successfully either prevented Russia or bluffed Russia (USSR) since 1948. At some point we are bound to find out which it is.
It has the additional small merit that Farage would be against it.
I think that's where we have to get to. Accept the realities of the current stalemate, but put a line in the sand against further aggression by Russia.
I'd only add the caveat that this should only happen with the agreement and support of the majority of Ukrainians themselves, rather than being imposed upon them.
Regarding Ukraine. In response to some of the more useful commentary today have been thinking what my position actually is, what should happen.
I think firstly, that the objective should be to de-escalate the conflict. This would be undertaken in full knowledge that it will restart when Russia thinks it has an advantage. So it would not be done naively and the first principle would be that Ukraine retains the ability to defend itself. Beyond this the goal should be to try and find a strategic solution to the issue of security in Europe, given the threat from Russia.
To change my mind about this I would need some evidence that Ukraine can actually win the war. What equipment do they need etc, what would be the strategy, have they got the people to do it. Or alternatively, that the Russian state is about to collapse. But it just appears highly resilient to me. Also, reassurance that the nuclear paradox can be overcome- a relevant factor in both scenarios. I am not going to give any weight to the 'moral argument' or being called a Putin appeaser.
You are never going to get anything that constitutes evidence one way or another. Wars are day-to-day decisions and everything is changing everywhere. They aren't deterministic, they are Markov chains where each step depends on the one before. Each side will fight until one side can't fight any more. So what you seek cannot be found.
The only decision the UK can take each day is whether to help the Ukrainians or betray them. Everything else is in the lap of the gods.
Wars are not totally chaotic, I don't accept that. Also there are different types of 'help'. Refusing to do everything that is demanded of someone is not 'betrayal', this sounds to me like emotional blackmail.
Wars are totally chaotic. Ask Lloyd George what was the plan for victory, in November 1917, and he’d likely say “keep buggering on.”
On the other hand prime minster Farage would not have allowed in 2.4 million migrants in 3 years
Yeah, he would.
He would blame the French
If Farage had been the PM we'd have lost a short war against France, ceded a strip of the south coast to them and Yorkshire would have declared independence. England's population would have gone down from 55 million to 42 million, and therefore commentary from certain quarters would be calling it all a huge success.
What's not to like from a Scottish nationalist perspective?
I have always believed that I vote for my constituency MP to represent me to the best of their ability. In Edinburgh SW there is no way my party candidate will win (she is a good person who I know through my wife), I do not want Labour to have the largest ever super-majority, so - do I vote tactically for Joanna Cherry who is a competent MP and supports LGB & Women's rights in a way I support? I do not support the SNP but I support her. Quandary time.
I have to warn you that there is an outside possibility, more theoretical than actual, that Joanna Cherry KC MP might be in favour of Scottish independence. It's only a rumour but you might want to take that into account.
I have also heard rumours to this effect. Stay away.
The more I think about it, the more Farage's comments feel like a huge mistake the Tories should be exploiting. NOT because of his views on the origins of the war, but because it can be painted as proof that he is literally a paid Putinite puppet. He has appeared on Russia Today, he did so after Crimea
That will be deadly for a lot of his potential voters. That's not "deeply patriotic", is it?
I guess the Tories have to be wary of the libel laws, but they could surely chuck out some innuendo. A screenshot of him on Russia Today, his quotes about Ukraine, and just a question - "who is he working for"?
That could be brutally effective and drive down the Reform vote well under 15%, potentially saving the Tories from disaster. This is a gift. Are they going to take it?
But if he isn't a paid Putinite puppet (or if there's just no actual evidence that he is), that approach could be very dangerous. Putin is very good at getting apologies off people. CCHQ doesn't want to be in the position at having to apologise publicly to him during an election campaign.
Do you mean Putin is very good at getting apologies off people?
Enabling them to fall out of tenth storey windows is more his style, I thought.
President Putin managed to get an absolutely lovely, heartfelt apology from Prigozhin shortly before he sadly had an accident.
Prigozhin chickening out of his coup attempt will be one of the great 'what if's of history.
That was one of the weirdest days in recent years. I was on holiday with the missus, and we sat watching the TV all day hoping that the end result would be a Russian civil war.
It was indeed weird. How on earth did Prigozhin not realise he had absolutely nothing to lose? There was absolutely no chance Putin was going to let him live after that. He is a murderous barsteward. Prigozhin must have known that.
If you aim for the King you had better not miss.
Wasn't the plan apparently to seize Shoigu or the Head of the Army, which failed, and then Prigozhin did his convoy thing as a second option?
Pretty insane plan anyway, but having not succeeded in the first aim rolling armed men up the motorway and then just calling it off is on a whole other level.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
A while ago after one of his many flounces here you posted how you missed him and how you wanted him to come back.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
A while ago after one of his many flounces here you posted how you missed him and how you wanted him to come back.
On topic, file under mildly amusing that a plurality of undecided voters were undecided on the question asked. Would hate to go to a restaurant with them.
What I found rather odd about it is that 10% of undecided voters thought it would be a good thing for the country if Labour had a very large majority, but clearly this wasn't sufficient for them to say they'd vote Labour!
Easy. They want a government that can do stuff, without being blamed for any of it themselves.
On topic, file under mildly amusing that a plurality of undecided voters were undecided on the question asked. Would hate to go to a restaurant with them.
What I found rather odd about it is that 10% of undecided voters thought it would be a good thing for the country if Labour had a very large majority, but clearly this wasn't sufficient for them to say they'd vote Labour!
Easy. They want a government that can do stuff, without being blamed for any of it.
The good old public - also want tax rises but not mine
Regarding Ukraine. In response to some of the more useful commentary today have been thinking what my position actually is, what should happen.
I think firstly, that the objective should be to de-escalate the conflict. This would be undertaken in full knowledge that it will restart when Russia thinks it has an advantage. So it would not be done naively and the first principle would be that Ukraine retains the ability to defend itself. Beyond this the goal should be to try and find a strategic solution to the issue of security in Europe, given the threat from Russia.
To change my mind about this I would need some evidence that Ukraine can actually win the war. What equipment do they need etc, what would be the strategy, have they got the people to do it. Or alternatively, that the Russian state is about to collapse. But it just appears highly resilient to me. Also, reassurance that the nuclear paradox can be overcome- a relevant factor in both scenarios. I am not going to give any weight to the 'moral argument' or being called a Putin appeaser.
Sadly, in Geopolitics moral arguments and allowing emotional considerations, fairness and pity to influence your key strategic decisions are a dangerous indulgence.
Geopolitics can be cold. But there's also an awful lot of 'coldly pragmatic' takes that are nothing of the sort, especially when pretending some kind of high minded neutrality.
How do you stop Russia, today, attacking Ukraine? Why should they? What is the compelling reason that you can give them?
I'm sure it makes sense to someone. Reform candidate for Bmth West: “These endless takes from Jews are horrendous. Many of the powerful groups agitating for the mass import into England of Muslims from the Third World are Jewish.”
Disgusting and unpleasant. 1/2
Reform spokesman says they are pleased he “thinks and speaks like an ordinary person.”
It's sad how these nasty old anti-Semitic tropes seem to be like malignant Timelords, being reborn with a new face once they eventually die. Different words, same old tired anti-Semitism.
Regarding Ukraine. In response to some of the more useful commentary today have been thinking what my position actually is, what should happen.
I think firstly, that the objective should be to de-escalate the conflict. This would be undertaken in full knowledge that it will restart when Russia thinks it has an advantage. So it would not be done naively and the first principle would be that Ukraine retains the ability to defend itself. Beyond this the goal should be to try and find a strategic solution to the issue of security in Europe, given the threat from Russia.
To change my mind about this I would need some evidence that Ukraine can actually win the war. What equipment do they need etc, what would be the strategy, have they got the people to do it. Or alternatively, that the Russian state is about to collapse. But it just appears highly resilient to me. Also, reassurance that the nuclear paradox can be overcome- a relevant factor in both scenarios. I am not going to give any weight to the 'moral argument' or being called a Putin appeaser.
You are never going to get anything that constitutes evidence one way or another. Wars are day-to-day decisions and everything is changing everywhere. They aren't deterministic, they are Markov chains where each step depends on the one before. Each side will fight until one side can't fight any more. So what you seek cannot be found.
The only decision the UK can take each day is whether to help the Ukrainians or betray them. Everything else is in the lap of the gods.
Wars are not totally chaotic, I don't accept that. Also there are different types of 'help'. Refusing to do everything that is demanded of someone is not 'betrayal', this sounds to me like emotional blackmail.
(mutters under breath: "Markov chains aren't chaotic")
If using another phrase ("whether to help the Ukrainians or not help them"?) illustrates the point better, please accept my apologies and use the better phrase.
The EU told him last week that they will not reopen the treaty
There are two sides in any attempt to rejoin
It depends what a Labour Government was, in theory, prepared to advocate.
Does our accession to CPTPP preclude accession to the EEA? If the UK doesn't have to ask for bespoke terms then there is no particular reason to suppose that it will be refused.
I'm tempted to take a nibble of Con 150 to 200 seats, on the basis that if 'the fear' works, the lower end of that is probably doable. I get the feeling they'll either hold a 97 position or collapse way below, not the in between
My current feeling is the Tories are going to fall just short of 150 seats. Maybe Con 147, Lab 395, Lib 67, Ref 2 or 3, Green 2 or 3. Overall Lab majority circa 140ish. But I still took 8/1 on Con 150-200 seats earlier this week when it was on offer, as I think it's good value.
Meanwhile the really tricky decision will be whether to defer any capital disposals for the next five years, or to bugger off somewhere else for five years, assuming CGT gets bolted onto income tax and done at 45%. Decisions decisions. Either way, the CGT raise will not raise a single penny from me...
You could always just, you know, pay your taxes at the rates current when they are due.
I was going to write something like that but couldn't find a way to phrase it in a way that didn't sound sanctimonious, especially as I am personally unlikely to dispose of anything attracting CGT in the next five years...
I do think there's a sensible point to make in this, though. The UK really does need money. Working people really are paying quite a lot of tax at the moment. If you are comfortable enough to attract CGT it is worth at least considering whether you want to be a free rider on others' CGT contributions or whether you want to contribute (more) yourself. (I'm trying not to write that in a loaded way, it's not meant that way).
I have always believed that I vote for my constituency MP to represent me to the best of their ability. In Edinburgh SW there is no way my party candidate will win (she is a good person who I know through my wife), I do not want Labour to have the largest ever super-majority, so - do I vote tactically for Joanna Cherry who is a competent MP and supports LGB & Women's rights in a way I support? I do not support the SNP but I support her. Quandary time.
I have to warn you that there is an outside possibility, more theoretical than actual, that Joanna Cherry KC MP might be in favour of Scottish independence. It's only a rumour but you might want to take that into account.
I have also heard rumours to this effect. Stay away.
Anyhoo I havce returned from shopping and am about to watch the Dr Who season finale on iPlayer. Normal service will be resumed afterwards. Laters, alligators.
I'm tempted to take a nibble of Con 150 to 200 seats, on the basis that if 'the fear' works, the lower end of that is probably doable. I get the feeling they'll either hold a 97 position or collapse way below, not the in between
My current feeling is the Tories are going to fall just short of 150 seats. Maybe Con 147, Lab 395, Lib 67, Ref 2 or 3, Green 2 or 3. Overall Lab majority circa 140ish. But I still took 8/1 on Con 150-200 seats earlier this week when it was on offer, as I think it's good value.
Meanwhile the really tricky decision will be whether to defer any capital disposals for the next five years, or to bugger off somewhere else for five years, assuming CGT gets bolted onto income tax and done at 45%. Decisions decisions. Either way, the CGT raise will not raise a single penny from me...
You could always just, you know, pay your taxes at the rates current when they are due.
I'll pay 45% on my gains when boomers sitting on similar gains on their principal residence pay more than 0%.
I'm sure it makes sense to someone. Reform candidate for Bmth West: “These endless takes from Jews are horrendous. Many of the powerful groups agitating for the mass import into England of Muslims from the Third World are Jewish.”
Disgusting and unpleasant. 1/2
Reform spokesman says they are pleased he “thinks and speaks like an ordinary person.”
You'd be surprised at the number of far right loons who think the mass immigration of migrants and in particular Muslims into the west is a Jewish led conspiracy
The Economist only has Labour clearing the winning post by 55 seats, which doesn't seem that many, (although of course you double that figure to get the majority).
I keep pointing out that SKS needs the sort of swing Blair had in 1997 to get a majority of 1.
You may well do. Doesn't make it true though.
Sigh.
Had the 2019 election been fought on the current boundaries, the Tories would have had a majority of 136 despite, the SNP winning virtually every seat in Scotland, with Labour getting just 169 seats.
So Labour need to gain 157 seats to get a majority of one. (source Baxter)
That equates to a swing of 8.7%.
Labour actually gained 146 seats in 1997 and got a swing of 8.8%.
I'm sure it makes sense to someone. Reform candidate for Bmth West: “These endless takes from Jews are horrendous. Many of the powerful groups agitating for the mass import into England of Muslims from the Third World are Jewish.”
Disgusting and unpleasant. 1/2
Reform spokesman says they are pleased he “thinks and speaks like an ordinary person.”
As often, there is a kernel of truth in the conspiracy. Jews were at the forefront of campaigns to open up migration to the USA for instance. They had at least two reasons: one was to get as many Jews to safety from anti Semitic Europe - especially the pogrom-ridden tsarist empire.
A lot of Jews also felt they would be safer in a truly multiracial society than in a monocultural society where they were one conspicuous minority (and often a successful minority). Again highly understandable. So Jews often campaigned for liberal immigration policies in western countries in general
Where this becomes nonsense is making the enormous leap from that to “there is some secret Jewish cabal trying to replace all white people with migrants”
Conspiracy theories generally need a seed of truth on which to form, like a pearl around grit
And then you get the crazy ones which are just true. I remember my mad ex father in law telling me “there is a secret island in the Caribbean where American presidents and famous billionaires and bill **** and British royals are flown to have sex with underage girls”
I've said it before and I'll say it again - there is something blowing in the breeze which the polls aren't picking up. I have knocked today in two constituencies - my own (Aberdeenshire North & Moray East), and also in Gordon & Buchan.
I haven't yet found *anyone* who says the country is in a good state. Even the people wedded to voting Tory or SNP because they always do agreed that things are pretty bad.
What I am finding is that the Tory and SNP last time votes are really soft. They are listening to a change election message, and they agree that voting Con to stop Tory or vice versa is the wrong call because there is no change. I picked up a lot of votes from the doors I knocked today.
I'm still a 66/1 shot. With (Labour) 8/1. So I need to keep picking up the disaffected Con and SNP votes, and go after the few thousand Labour votes. Because with both Tory and SNP camps saying their doorknocks also find people saying the country is a mess, it remains all to play for.
I'm confident you will get more votes than the Labour candidate.
I have always believed that I vote for my constituency MP to represent me to the best of their ability. In Edinburgh SW there is no way my party candidate will win (she is a good person who I know through my wife), I do not want Labour to have the largest ever super-majority, so - do I vote tactically for Joanna Cherry who is a competent MP and supports LGB & Women's rights in a way I support? I do not support the SNP but I support her. Quandary time.
Cherry is a good egg, and deserves as much support as possible in the circumstances.
Alternatively, just say to hell with it, and vote for the candidate you actually support!
The Farage thing isn't really about Putin. It's about what moral responsibility Farage thinks Britain has to help people in other countries enjoy what should be universal democratic freedoms. And the answer, for him, is none whatsoever. There's not even a threshold. Zero. Zilch.
It's incredibly revealing. It's also a feature of the new far right, everywhere. Not even "our people first" but "our people only". It is absolutely appeasement and alien to Western diplomatic ethics since WW2. And don't imagine it would have been any different IN WW2, either.
Isn't the point more a simpler one of capability?
Entering WW1 we were the richest and most powerful country in the world. Entering WW2, whilst damaged by WW1 to the point of no longer being the world's leading economy, still very wealthy comparitively (with the Empire to liquidate), with an economy that had recovered well during the 1930s (under very strict non-socialist policies please note), and a leader in manufacturing and military technology.
Now, we're what we are now. Nobody is more patriotic than myself here - sometimes I think I'm one of the few here who believes in our potential as an independent nation - but we are simply not in a position to fight, or even contribute meaningfully, to world conflict. We just abolished virgin steel production. We have no large scale manufacturing base. We're massively indebted with a large structural deficit. Net zero, immigration, and welfare commitments are crippling us. It's not a case of nasty people like Nigel Farage undermining our resolve, and people not being willing to work as ARP wardens or build Anderson shelters because they've been listening to nasty Nigel, it's that their "our people only" approach is literally the ONLY feasible stance we have at this time.
I agree almost completely with your diagnosis, except that I am possibly even more pessimistic about the UK and the west in general. Just walking around Camden half an hour ago - the dystopian sense of decay is horrifying. Tents all down Parkway. Obvious Fentanyl abuse. People simply accepting this. But this is the same malaise I have seen in Paris, Italy, America.....
There are only two possible escape routes. "Technology" or firm rightwing governments that take no shit
THIS is why it is so deeply irritating when Farage, who actually has political skill, and might push us in a rightwards directions, goes and fucks it all up - potentially - with silly, mis-timed remarks about Putin. Read the damn room, Nige
Camden was always a dump though; you just became blind to it, living for so long just a few doors down from SeanT.
I have always believed that I vote for my constituency MP to represent me to the best of their ability. In Edinburgh SW there is no way my party candidate will win (she is a good person who I know through my wife), I do not want Labour to have the largest ever super-majority, so - do I vote tactically for Joanna Cherry who is a competent MP and supports LGB & Women's rights in a way I support? I do not support the SNP but I support her. Quandary time.
I have to warn you that there is an outside possibility, more theoretical than actual, that Joanna Cherry KC MP might be in favour of Scottish independence. It's only a rumour but you might want to take that into account.
I have also heard rumours to this effect. Stay away.
Vote for a useless loser instead
*checks Wiki* Except that there doesn't appear to be an Alba candidate standing in Edinburgh SW. For shame.
David Cameron would agree that Michael Gove is a James Hunt
Michael Gove: Election betting row is as damaging as partygate
Turning up at Silverstone earlier this month for the Conservative manifesto launch, Michael Gove was asked why he had now decided to leave frontline politics.
“In Formula One terms I am a bit of a James Hunt,” he replied, a nod to the British racing driver who in 1979 quit half-way through the season after losing enthusiasm for the sport and realising his team’s car was uncompetitive.....
....The divorced father-of two claims he has only ever made one political bet when he put money on Hillary Clinton to beat Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential race. “That was literally a world away,” he said. “But this is, as far as I can tell, an allegation about people using privileged inside information to secure an advantage that wasn’t available to others.”
Accusing those involved of “sucking the oxygen out of the campaign”, he said that, just as with partygate, “a few individuals end up creating an incredibly damaging atmosphere for the party”.
Regarding Ukraine. In response to some of the more useful commentary today have been thinking what my position actually is, what should happen.
I think firstly, that the objective should be to de-escalate the conflict. This would be undertaken in full knowledge that it will restart when Russia thinks it has an advantage. So it would not be done naively and the first principle would be that Ukraine retains the ability to defend itself. Beyond this the goal should be to try and find a strategic solution to the issue of security in Europe, given the threat from Russia.
To change my mind about this I would need some evidence that Ukraine can actually win the war. What equipment do they need etc, what would be the strategy, have they got the people to do it. Or alternatively, that the Russian state is about to collapse. But it just appears highly resilient to me. Also, reassurance that the nuclear paradox can be overcome- a relevant factor in both scenarios. I am not going to give any weight to the 'moral argument' or being called a Putin appeaser.
Sadly, in Geopolitics moral arguments and allowing emotional considerations, fairness and pity to influence your key strategic decisions are a dangerous indulgence.
Moral arguments are a dangerous indulgence?
We've heard that many times before, of course. All it means is that when the fight comes, and when you are threatened, your opponent is that much stronger, and you are that much weaker
History does not just suggest, it commands, that the earlier you confront an aggressor, the less dangerous it is.
The Farage thing isn't really about Putin. It's about what moral responsibility Farage thinks Britain has to help people in other countries enjoy what should be universal democratic freedoms. And the answer, for him, is none whatsoever. There's not even a threshold. Zero. Zilch.
It's incredibly revealing. It's also a feature of the new far right, everywhere. Not even "our people first" but "our people only". It is absolutely appeasement and alien to Western diplomatic ethics since WW2. And don't imagine it would have been any different IN WW2, either.
Isn't the point more a simpler one of capability?
Entering WW1 we were the richest and most powerful country in the world. Entering WW2, whilst damaged by WW1 to the point of no longer being the world's leading economy, still very wealthy comparitively (with the Empire to liquidate), with an economy that had recovered well during the 1930s (under very strict non-socialist policies please note), and a leader in manufacturing and military technology.
Now, we're what we are now. Nobody is more patriotic than myself here - sometimes I think I'm one of the few here who believes in our potential as an independent nation - but we are simply not in a position to fight, or even contribute meaningfully, to world conflict. We just abolished virgin steel production. We have no large scale manufacturing base. We're massively indebted with a large structural deficit. Net zero, immigration, and welfare commitments are crippling us. It's not a case of nasty people like Nigel Farage undermining our resolve, and people not being willing to work as ARP wardens or build Anderson shelters because they've been listening to nasty Nigel, it's that their "our people only" approach is literally the ONLY feasible stance we have at this time.
I agree almost completely with your diagnosis, except that I am possibly even more pessimistic about the UK and the west in general. Just walking around Camden half an hour ago - the dystopian sense of decay is horrifying. Tents all down Parkway. Obvious Fentanyl abuse. People simply accepting this. But this is the same malaise I have seen in Paris, Italy, America.....
There are only two possible escape routes. "Technology" or firm rightwing governments that take no shit
THIS is why it is so deeply irritating when Farage, who actually has political skill, and might push us in a rightwards directions, goes and fucks it all up - potentially - with silly, mis-timed remarks about Putin. Read the damn room, Nige
Camden was always a dump though; you just became blind to it, living for so long just a few doors down from SeanT.
Labour will say that before entering government to ensure they win, once the redwall seats are safely back in the Labour column they will certainly start to shift to rejoining a CU by the end of their first term. If re elected they will then look to rejoin the single market and if they get a third term they might even consider rejoining the full EU albeit that is less likely, especially if the Euro is required
The Economist only has Labour clearing the winning post by 55 seats, which doesn't seem that many, (although of course you double that figure to get the majority).
I keep pointing out that SKS needs the sort of swing Blair had in 1997 to get a majority of 1.
You may well do. Doesn't make it true though.
Sigh.
Had the 2019 election been fought on the current boundaries, the Tories would have had a majority of 136 despite, the SNP winning virtually every seat in Scotland, with Labour getting just 169 seats.
So Labour need to gain 157 seats to get a majority of one. (source Baxter)
That equates to a swing of 8.7%.
Labour actually gained 146 seats in 1997 and got a swing of 8.8%.
Wrong. The Labour vote went up 8.8% in 1997. The swing from the Tories was 10%. A 10 % swing on Baxter in the unlikely event of LD, Green and Reform staying the same is a 64 majority. However. All polling and anecdotal evidence points to the Labour vote becoming much more efficient. And Scottish polling blows UNS out of the water any ways. Your line of argument maintains that the Tories didn't win a majority in 2015. Cameron undershot the swing he "needed" to win by some margin. FPTP doesn't work like that.
Indeed. They've just uploaded still more maps - including more large scale OS maps of much of the UK - so far as copyright allows. And I really like the Lidar - peering under tree cover at old earthworks.
(And there is also an overlay option, of course.)
I want the Definitive Map and Statement for Nottinghamshire.
Isn't that held by the county council, presumably? Not the OS.
Yes, but not online in any useful form.
In Derbyshire it's just another layer of data on their mapping system.
For me to inspect something is a 50 mile round trip, so it's easier to put an FOI in.
If I did that with all the footpaths I need to know about, they would have a fugue.
The data is on rowmaps.com I think - depends how happy you are at playing around with GIS software!
I’m currently having to learn GIS software as part of the day job as an IT guy, it’s great fun!
The Economist only has Labour clearing the winning post by 55 seats, which doesn't seem that many, (although of course you double that figure to get the majority).
I keep pointing out that SKS needs the sort of swing Blair had in 1997 to get a majority of 1.
You may well do. Doesn't make it true though.
Sigh.
Had the 2019 election been fought on the current boundaries, the Tories would have had a majority of 136 despite, the SNP winning virtually every seat in Scotland, with Labour getting just 169 seats.
So Labour need to gain 157 seats to get a majority of one. (source Baxter)
That equates to a swing of 8.7%.
Labour actually gained 146 seats in 1997 and got a swing of 8.8%.
You're wrong, the Con to Lab swing in 1997 was 10%.
David Cameron would agree that Michael Gove is a James Hunt
Michael Gove: Election betting row is as damaging as partygate
Turning up at Silverstone earlier this month for the Conservative manifesto launch, Michael Gove was asked why he had now decided to leave frontline politics.
“In Formula One terms I am a bit of a James Hunt,” he replied, a nod to the British racing driver who in 1979 quit half-way through the season after losing enthusiasm for the sport and realising his team’s car was uncompetitive.....
....The divorced father-of two claims he has only ever made one political bet when he put money on Hillary Clinton to beat Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential race. “That was literally a world away,” he said. “But this is, as far as I can tell, an allegation about people using privileged inside information to secure an advantage that wasn’t available to others.”
Accusing those involved of “sucking the oxygen out of the campaign”, he said that, just as with partygate, “a few individuals end up creating an incredibly damaging atmosphere for the party”.
I'm convinced Gove did not stand because there is a serious possibility that there would have been a Portillo moment that would have changed the narrative to a Gove moment going forward. Hunt doesn't count because he is expecting to lose and if he doesn't the Tories will be looking not so bad. But if Gove had gone down it would be remembered for decades with pictures of his face at the losing moment shown on the TV for decades.
The Economist only has Labour clearing the winning post by 55 seats, which doesn't seem that many, (although of course you double that figure to get the majority).
I keep pointing out that SKS needs the sort of swing Blair had in 1997 to get a majority of 1.
You may well do. Doesn't make it true though.
Sigh.
Had the 2019 election been fought on the current boundaries, the Tories would have had a majority of 136 despite, the SNP winning virtually every seat in Scotland, with Labour getting just 169 seats.
So Labour need to gain 157 seats to get a majority of one. (source Baxter)
That equates to a swing of 8.7%.
Labour actually gained 146 seats in 1997 and got a swing of 8.8%.
Wrong. The Labour vote went up 8.8% in 1997. The swing from the Tories was 10%. A 10 % swing on Baxter in the unlikely event of LD, Green and Reform staying the same is a 64 majority. However. All polling and anecdotal evidence points to the Labour vote becoming much more efficient. And Scottish polling blows UNS out of the water any ways. Your line of argument maintains that the Tories didn't win a majority in 2015. Cameron undershot the swing he "needed" to win by some margin.
I'm sure it makes sense to someone. Reform candidate for Bmth West: “These endless takes from Jews are horrendous. Many of the powerful groups agitating for the mass import into England of Muslims from the Third World are Jewish.”
Disgusting and unpleasant. 1/2
Reform spokesman says they are pleased he “thinks and speaks like an ordinary person.”
You'd be surprised at the number of far right loons who think the mass immigration of migrants and in particular Muslims into the west is a Jewish led conspiracy
It is the inevitable result of the fact that they have lots of children and we (not me personally, I've got more than three time above average) don't. In turn this results from a strong faith that this life is a journey not an end in itself and the next, eternal, life is far more important than this one (compared with weak 'token' or no faith in the west)
About thirty years ago, in a time before Muslims were high profile and it was us Catholics who were smeared as hiding bombs in our bags given half a chance, a now long dead priest said to me that it is a mathematical inevitability that cultures that practice contraception and abortion will be replaced with cultures that don't.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
@Cookie Enjoy your time up north in the wonderful East Lancashire and North Yorkshire. Best part of the country.
I will not dignify the critique of Clitheroe with much of a response. A fine town that educated me for two years. Home to some cracking pubs/bars too. And the delightful Stansfields hot beef sandwich.
Clitheroe is indeed a fine town - I'm sure Dixiedean was only joshing. My delight in leaving it in a northerly direction is because only one train a week does this. And I was on it! Anyway, happy to report that the day went splendidly. I got off at Ribblehead and was too eager to get going to get on the train to Kirby Stephen: I set off for Hawes and Wensleydale on the route suggested by @El_Capitano yesterday. I love the high dales: there is so much space, so much quiet. The sky was full of swallows amd not much else; I was cycling eastwards at about 12mph in a westerly wind of about 12mph and the effect was of utter stillness; it was like being in a hot air balloon. It was also much, much easier than cycling usually is. In a whimsical fit of masochism I decided at Askrigg to turn left and go over the road to Muker; I can still feel this in my thighs six hours later. I didn't even get the benefit of a long descent as the downward road was so steep that I had to hold the brakes the whole way down. But it was the right decision: Swaledale is magical - my favourite of the Dales - and I had a splendid lunch in the Pumch Bowl near Healaugh. Progress after lunch was somewhat slower, but Swaledale is lovely all the way to Richmond. Brief mooch around Richmond, and then on to Brompton in Swale and back by the recommended route - which was surprisingly lovely in the late afternoon sun, the smell.of freshly cut hay wafting off the fields. Made it to Northallerton by 5.15 and now on the train back to Manchester. It feels inconceivably fast and busy. I will now use my one photo of the day to illustrate the above [it's on the previous thread if you care - Cookie stays within the limits!]
David Cameron would agree that Michael Gove is a James Hunt
Michael Gove: Election betting row is as damaging as partygate
Turning up at Silverstone earlier this month for the Conservative manifesto launch, Michael Gove was asked why he had now decided to leave frontline politics.
“In Formula One terms I am a bit of a James Hunt,” he replied, a nod to the British racing driver who in 1979 quit half-way through the season after losing enthusiasm for the sport and realising his team’s car was uncompetitive.....
....The divorced father-of two claims he has only ever made one political bet when he put money on Hillary Clinton to beat Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential race. “That was literally a world away,” he said. “But this is, as far as I can tell, an allegation about people using privileged inside information to secure an advantage that wasn’t available to others.”
Accusing those involved of “sucking the oxygen out of the campaign”, he said that, just as with partygate, “a few individuals end up creating an incredibly damaging atmosphere for the party”.
I'm convinced Gove did not stand because there is a serious possibility that there would have been a Portillo moment that would have changed the narrative to a Gove moment going forward. Hunt doesn't count because he is expecting to lose and if he doesn't the Tories will be looking not so bad. But if Gove had gone down it would be remembered for decades with pictures of his face at the losing moment shown on the TV for decades.
He alludes to the real reasons why he's quitting.
Politics has cost him a lot personally, it is responsible for his divorce and his friendship with the Camerons (remember Gove was godfather to Ivan Cameron.)
Indeed. They've just uploaded still more maps - including more large scale OS maps of much of the UK - so far as copyright allows. And I really like the Lidar - peering under tree cover at old earthworks.
(And there is also an overlay option, of course.)
I want the Definitive Map and Statement for Nottinghamshire.
Isn't that held by the county council, presumably? Not the OS.
Yes, but not online in any useful form.
In Derbyshire it's just another layer of data on their mapping system.
For me to inspect something is a 50 mile round trip, so it's easier to put an FOI in.
If I did that with all the footpaths I need to know about, they would have a fugue.
The data is on rowmaps.com I think - depends how happy you are at playing around with GIS software!
I’m currently having to learn GIS software as part of the day job as an IT guy, it’s great fun!
Labour will say that before entering government to ensure they win, once the redwall seats are safely back in the Labour column they will certainly start to shift to rejoining a CU by the end of their first term. If re elected they will then look to rejoin the single market and if they get a third term they might even consider rejoining the full EU albeit that is less likely, especially if the Euro is required
Once again. It's nowt to do with RedWall seats. The biggest margins for Brexit were the two midlands regions.
I'm sure it makes sense to someone. Reform candidate for Bmth West: “These endless takes from Jews are horrendous. Many of the powerful groups agitating for the mass import into England of Muslims from the Third World are Jewish.”
Disgusting and unpleasant. 1/2
Reform spokesman says they are pleased he “thinks and speaks like an ordinary person.”
It's sad how these nasty old anti-Semitic tropes seem to be like malignant Timelords, being reborn with a new face once they eventually die. Different words, same old tired anti-Semitism.
Our minds seem to be hardwired to find anti-semitism plausible. It is protean, emerging in different forms, across time and place.
@Cookie Enjoy your time up north in the wonderful East Lancashire and North Yorkshire. Best part of the country.
I will not dignify the critique of Clitheroe with much of a response. A fine town that educated me for two years. Home to some cracking pubs/bars too. And the delightful Stansfields hot beef sandwich.
Clitheroe is indeed a fine town - I'm sure Dixiedean was only joshing. My delight in leaving it in a northerly direction is because only one train a week does this. And I was on it! Anyway, happy to report that the day went splendidly. I got off at Ribblehead and was too eager to get going to get on the train to Kirby Stephen: I set off for Hawes and Wensleydale on the route suggested by @El_Capitano yesterday. I love the high dales: there is so much space, so much quiet. The sky was full of swallows amd not much else; I was cycling eastwards at about 12mph in a westerly wind of about 12mph and the effect was of utter stillness; it was like being in a hot air balloon. It was also much, much easier than cycling usually is. In a whimsical fit of masochism I decided at Askrigg to turn left and go over the road to Muker; I can still feel this in my thighs six hours later. I didn't even get the benefit of a long descent as the downward road was so steep that I had to hold the brakes the whole way down. But it was the right decision: Swaledale is magical - my favourite of the Dales - and I had a splendid lunch in the Pumch Bowl near Healaugh. Progress after lunch was somewhat slower, but Swaledale is lovely all the way to Richmond. Brief mooch around Richmond, and then on to Brompton in Swale and back by the recommended route - which was surprisingly lovely in the late afternoon sun, the smell.of freshly cut hay wafting off the fields. Made it to Northallerton by 5.15 and now on the train back to Manchester. It feels inconceivably fast and busy. I will now use my one photo of the day to illustrrate the above waffle:
And as this is a politics site, I can report the following: most of my ride was in the Richmond seat of Rishi Sunak. The only flags I saw were two Lib Dem flags in Richmond itself, and one Labour one in deepest Swaledale. We don't really do flags much any more, and in retrospect it seems a bit odd that we ever did - almost a bit rude; an unprovoked and slightly aggressive conversation on a subject we normally tacitly agree to step discreetly around. Four elderly cyclists whose tops identified them as locals were discussing with some glee the possibililty of Rishi losing his seat, but it wasn't clear they favoured anyone else - though it was made very clear none of them liked Farage and that they liked Galloway even less. Politics almost seemed an intrusion on the day though, and obviously never came up in any conversations I had (I feel like I've been talking to people all day, at least whenever I've been stationary - northerners are a chatty bunch once you get north of the big cities.)
I'm sure it makes sense to someone. Reform candidate for Bmth West: “These endless takes from Jews are horrendous. Many of the powerful groups agitating for the mass import into England of Muslims from the Third World are Jewish.”
Disgusting and unpleasant. 1/2
Reform spokesman says they are pleased he “thinks and speaks like an ordinary person.”
You'd be surprised at the number of far right loons who think the mass immigration of migrants and in particular Muslims into the west is a Jewish led conspiracy
It is the inevitable result of the fact that they have lots of children and we (not me personally, I've got more than three time above average) don't. In turn this results from a strong faith that this life is a journey not an end in itself and the next, eternal, life is far more important than this one (compared with weak 'token' or no faith in the west)
About thirty years ago, in a time before Muslims were high profile and it was us Catholics who were smeared as hiding bombs in our bags given half a chance, a now long dead priest said to me that it is a mathematical inevitability that cultures that practice contraception and abortion will be replaced with cultures that don't.
It would also be the stupidest conspiracy in history as by importing Islam Jews would, in general, be importing quite a lot of anti Semitism. If Jews are meant to be that clever and devious how come they did such a dumb thing?
I'm sure it makes sense to someone. Reform candidate for Bmth West: “These endless takes from Jews are horrendous. Many of the powerful groups agitating for the mass import into England of Muslims from the Third World are Jewish.”
Disgusting and unpleasant. 1/2
Reform spokesman says they are pleased he “thinks and speaks like an ordinary person.”
It's sad how these nasty old anti-Semitic tropes seem to be like malignant Timelords, being reborn with a new face once they eventually die. Different words, same old tired anti-Semitism.
Our minds seem to be hardwired to find anti-semitism plausible. It is protean, emerging in different forms, across time and place.
My friend's father is a Jewish historian (who himself is Jewish), he says Western antisemitism comes down to the simple fact is that the Jews killed Christ.
@Cookie Enjoy your time up north in the wonderful East Lancashire and North Yorkshire. Best part of the country.
I will not dignify the critique of Clitheroe with much of a response. A fine town that educated me for two years. Home to some cracking pubs/bars too. And the delightful Stansfields hot beef sandwich.
Clitheroe is indeed a fine town - I'm sure Dixiedean was only joshing. My delight in leaving it in a northerly direction is because only one train a week does this. And I was on it! Anyway, happy to report that the day went splendidly. I got off at Ribblehead and was too eager to get going to get on the train to Kirby Stephen: I set off for Hawes and Wensleydale on the route suggested by @El_Capitano yesterday. I love the high dales: there is so much space, so much quiet. The sky was full of swallows amd not much else; I was cycling eastwards at about 12mph in a westerly wind of about 12mph and the effect was of utter stillness; it was like being in a hot air balloon. It was also much, much easier than cycling usually is. In a whimsical fit of masochism I decided at Askrigg to turn left and go over the road to Muker; I can still feel this in my thighs six hours later. I didn't even get the benefit of a long descent as the downward road was so steep that I had to hold the brakes the whole way down. But it was the right decision: Swaledale is magical - my favourite of the Dales - and I had a splendid lunch in the Pumch Bowl near Healaugh. Progress after lunch was somewhat slower, but Swaledale is lovely all the way to Richmond. Brief mooch around Richmond, and then on to Brompton in Swale and back by the recommended route - which was surprisingly lovely in the late afternoon sun, the smell.of freshly cut hay wafting off the fields. Made it to Northallerton by 5.15 and now on the train back to Manchester. It feels inconceivably fast and busy. I will now use my one photo of the day to illustrate the above [it's on the previous thread if you care - Cookie stays within the limits!]
Also, having cycled in a west to east arc which has almost perfectly managed to keep the sun exactly 90 degrees to my right all day, I have a quite sunburnt right arm.
I'm sure it makes sense to someone. Reform candidate for Bmth West: “These endless takes from Jews are horrendous. Many of the powerful groups agitating for the mass import into England of Muslims from the Third World are Jewish.”
Disgusting and unpleasant. 1/2
Reform spokesman says they are pleased he “thinks and speaks like an ordinary person.”
It's sad how these nasty old anti-Semitic tropes seem to be like malignant Timelords, being reborn with a new face once they eventually die. Different words, same old tired anti-Semitism.
Our minds seem to be hardwired to find anti-semitism plausible. It is protean, emerging in different forms, across time and place.
My friend's father is a Jewish historian (who himself is Jewish), he says Western antisemitism comes down to the simple fact is that the Jews killed Christ.
Nope, the Romans killed Christ. Crucifixion was a Roman punishment. If the Jews had their way, they would have stoned him.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
I'm sure it makes sense to someone. Reform candidate for Bmth West: “These endless takes from Jews are horrendous. Many of the powerful groups agitating for the mass import into England of Muslims from the Third World are Jewish.”
Disgusting and unpleasant. 1/2
Reform spokesman says they are pleased he “thinks and speaks like an ordinary person.”
It's sad how these nasty old anti-Semitic tropes seem to be like malignant Timelords, being reborn with a new face once they eventually die. Different words, same old tired anti-Semitism.
Our minds seem to be hardwired to find anti-semitism plausible. It is protean, emerging in different forms, across time and place.
My friend's father is a Jewish historian (who himself is Jewish), he says Western antisemitism comes down to the simple fact is that the Jews killed Christ.
Which also makes no logical sense. As Christ was a Jew. Not a Christian.
I'm sure it makes sense to someone. Reform candidate for Bmth West: “These endless takes from Jews are horrendous. Many of the powerful groups agitating for the mass import into England of Muslims from the Third World are Jewish.”
Disgusting and unpleasant. 1/2
Reform spokesman says they are pleased he “thinks and speaks like an ordinary person.”
You'd be surprised at the number of far right loons who think the mass immigration of migrants and in particular Muslims into the west is a Jewish led conspiracy
It is the inevitable result of the fact that they have lots of children and we (not me personally, I've got more than three time above average) don't. In turn this results from a strong faith that this life is a journey not an end in itself and the next, eternal, life is far more important than this one (compared with weak 'token' or no faith in the west)
About thirty years ago, in a time before Muslims were high profile and it was us Catholics who were smeared as hiding bombs in our bags given half a chance, a now long dead priest said to me that it is a mathematical inevitability that cultures that practice contraception and abortion will be replaced with cultures that don't.
Phew, good thing there was no rampant cover up of child abuse by the Catholic Church, eh?
I have always believed that I vote for my constituency MP to represent me to the best of their ability. In Edinburgh SW there is no way my party candidate will win (she is a good person who I know through my wife), I do not want Labour to have the largest ever super-majority, so - do I vote tactically for Joanna Cherry who is a competent MP and supports LGB & Women's rights in a way I support? I do not support the SNP but I support her. Quandary time.
I have to warn you that there is an outside possibility, more theoretical than actual, that Joanna Cherry KC MP might be in favour of Scottish independence. It's only a rumour but you might want to take that into account.
I have also heard rumours to this effect. Stay away.
Vote for a useless loser instead
Absolutely Malcom, you are getting the idea.
David , no vote for us this time, no real Independence candidate in our seat so it will be torn up ballots.
I've said it before and I'll say it again - there is something blowing in the breeze which the polls aren't picking up. I have knocked today in two constituencies - my own (Aberdeenshire North & Moray East), and also in Gordon & Buchan.
I haven't yet found *anyone* who says the country is in a good state. Even the people wedded to voting Tory or SNP because they always do agreed that things are pretty bad.
What I am finding is that the Tory and SNP last time votes are really soft. They are listening to a change election message, and they agree that voting Con to stop Tory or vice versa is the wrong call because there is no change. I picked up a lot of votes from the doors I knocked today.
I'm still a 66/1 shot. With (Labour) 8/1. So I need to keep picking up the disaffected Con and SNP votes, and go after the few thousand Labour votes. Because with both Tory and SNP camps saying their doorknocks also find people saying the country is a mess, it remains all to play for.
I'm confident you will get more votes than the Labour candidate.
Everyone everywhere agrees, "things are pretty bad". Nobody anywhere agrees what the problem is, so nobody anywhere knows what the solution is. All it takes is a political genius to weld this inchoate dissatisfaction into a programme for radical change. Fortunately no such person exists.
The Economist only has Labour clearing the winning post by 55 seats, which doesn't seem that many, (although of course you double that figure to get the majority).
I keep pointing out that SKS needs the sort of swing Blair had in 1997 to get a majority of 1.
You may well do. Doesn't make it true though.
Sigh.
Had the 2019 election been fought on the current boundaries, the Tories would have had a majority of 136 despite, the SNP winning virtually every seat in Scotland, with Labour getting just 169 seats.
So Labour need to gain 157 seats to get a majority of one. (source Baxter)
That equates to a swing of 8.7%.
Labour actually gained 146 seats in 1997 and got a swing of 8.8%.
You're wrong, the Con to Lab swing in 1997 was 10%.
Labour's vote share went up by 8.8%.
Edit - Beaten to it by DixieDean.
8.7% to get a majority of one is still almost as much as blairs swing of 10% in 1997.
So error acknowledged but my main point is still valid.
SKS has a huge challenge to win enough seats to get a majority. Sure it looks like he will right now, but enough Big Gs returning to the tories and Scottish Big Gs returning to the nats, and they quite easily might not.
For no apparent reason and certainly not seriously evidenced by the latest polls, PB.com appears to be in an extraordinarily bullish frame of mind this afternoon towards the Tories with several posters suggesting that they could win close on 200 seats in 12 days time.
All the evidence suggests that they will emerge with little more than half that number at best.
The spread-betting markets are seldom wrong, at least not to any major extent and Spreadex/Sporting's mid spreads for the three major parties are currently:
Labour 425 seats Tories 114 seats LibDems 58 seats
On this basis Labout would achieve an overall majority of 200 seats.
I did quite well on buying a conservative majority in 2019. I think I bought at around 20 seats and so was very happy when the exit poll came in (I remember it well, I was at a long booked in advance concert and ducked out at 10ish to disapprobrium).
I think I am going to get my arse handed to me on a plate this time around. I was expecting a narrowing as the election approached, but this has failed to materialise. I still find sub 200 bizarre and sub 150 literally inconceivable, and this is affecting my betting for the worse.
Labour will say that before entering government to ensure they win, once the redwall seats are safely back in the Labour column they will certainly start to shift to rejoining a CU by the end of their first term. If re elected they will then look to rejoin the single market and if they get a third term they might even consider rejoining the full EU albeit that is less likely, especially if the Euro is required
Once again. It's nowt to do with RedWall seats. The biggest margins for Brexit were the two midlands regions.
And plenty of redwall seats there in areas like West Bromwich and Stoke and Mansfield
I'm sure it makes sense to someone. Reform candidate for Bmth West: “These endless takes from Jews are horrendous. Many of the powerful groups agitating for the mass import into England of Muslims from the Third World are Jewish.”
Disgusting and unpleasant. 1/2
Reform spokesman says they are pleased he “thinks and speaks like an ordinary person.”
It's sad how these nasty old anti-Semitic tropes seem to be like malignant Timelords, being reborn with a new face once they eventually die. Different words, same old tired anti-Semitism.
Our minds seem to be hardwired to find anti-semitism plausible. It is protean, emerging in different forms, across time and place.
Tory campaign now seems to be just making up taxes with fearful names and then saying Labour haven't ruled this out so panic.
Mainly that, interspersed with the supermajority stuff alluded to above. But they might as well try it. Positive messages about their own policies and supposed achievements in office aren't going to be taken seriously.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
I'm sure it makes sense to someone. Reform candidate for Bmth West: “These endless takes from Jews are horrendous. Many of the powerful groups agitating for the mass import into England of Muslims from the Third World are Jewish.”
Disgusting and unpleasant. 1/2
Reform spokesman says they are pleased he “thinks and speaks like an ordinary person.”
You'd be surprised at the number of far right loons who think the mass immigration of migrants and in particular Muslims into the west is a Jewish led conspiracy
It is the inevitable result of the fact that they have lots of children and we (not me personally, I've got more than three time above average) don't. In turn this results from a strong faith that this life is a journey not an end in itself and the next, eternal, life is far more important than this one (compared with weak 'token' or no faith in the west)
About thirty years ago, in a time before Muslims were high profile and it was us Catholics who were smeared as hiding bombs in our bags given half a chance, a now long dead priest said to me that it is a mathematical inevitability that cultures that practice contraception and abortion will be replaced with cultures that don't.
You don't need contraception and abortion to kill a culture. Just nursery costs of £1600pcm per child, and the cost of each additional bedroom being another 100-250k on the purchase price of a house. If you can afford a house at all that is. Fix that and the birthrate might go up.
I'm sure it makes sense to someone. Reform candidate for Bmth West: “These endless takes from Jews are horrendous. Many of the powerful groups agitating for the mass import into England of Muslims from the Third World are Jewish.”
Disgusting and unpleasant. 1/2
Reform spokesman says they are pleased he “thinks and speaks like an ordinary person.”
It's sad how these nasty old anti-Semitic tropes seem to be like malignant Timelords, being reborn with a new face once they eventually die. Different words, same old tired anti-Semitism.
Our minds seem to be hardwired to find anti-semitism plausible. It is protean, emerging in different forms, across time and place.
My friend's father is a Jewish historian (who himself is Jewish), he says Western antisemitism comes down to the simple fact is that the Jews killed Christ.
Which also makes no logical sense. As Christ was a Jew. Not a Christian.
Bigotry often has no logic.
I like the one in America.
The MAGA lot: Immigrants are drug dealers and rapists coming over here to steal our jobs.
Which begs the question just what jobs do the MAGA actually have.
Some relief though I suspect in CCHQ that the Tories are still 3% ahead of Reform with Savanta and that poll was taken mostly before the Farage comments on Putin aired
Reading all these posts while wondering what to vote. I’m never going to vote Con and anyway the candidate is Priti Patel. I want to vote Left-ish. So that’s Lab, LibDem or Green. Not keen on the latter, but I do really want to see us back in Europe, and in general I think SKS is over-cautious. But, if I vote LibDem will I let in Patel? Plus, so far, the Lab candidate is the only one who’s been putting in any practical effort. There’s an Indie who’s done a bit, but I really can’t see her getting anywhere. So it’s with regret that I shall vote Lab, and hope she squeezes over the line.
Mrs C has no such concerns; she’s had enough of the Cons and has never shared my admiration of the LibDems.
"Reform candidates' offensive remarks seen by BBC"
The following is pretty weak sauce to lead the article though:
"Among the candidates whose comments the BBC has uncovered is Simon Moorehead, standing in Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West, who wrote on X: "[Jo] Cox was a dreadful woman, with bad ideas". He then added: "No-one wanted her dead though"."
Notice how the journalist splits the post up into single sentences to imply the second was an afterthought.
Labour will say that before entering government to ensure they win, once the redwall seats are safely back in the Labour column they will certainly start to shift to rejoining a CU by the end of their first term. If re elected they will then look to rejoin the single market and if they get a third term they might even consider rejoining the full EU albeit that is less likely, especially if the Euro is required
Once again. It's nowt to do with RedWall seats. The biggest margins for Brexit were the two midlands regions.
And plenty of redwall seats there in areas like West Bromwich and Stoke and Mansfield
But that's not the Red Wall!!! That refers to the once unbroken chain of Labour seats from the Mersey to the Humber. If we can't agree on a definition a term loses all validity.
The Economist only has Labour clearing the winning post by 55 seats, which doesn't seem that many, (although of course you double that figure to get the majority).
I keep pointing out that SKS needs the sort of swing Blair had in 1997 to get a majority of 1.
You may well do. Doesn't make it true though.
Sigh.
Had the 2019 election been fought on the current boundaries, the Tories would have had a majority of 136 despite, the SNP winning virtually every seat in Scotland, with Labour getting just 169 seats.
So Labour need to gain 157 seats to get a majority of one. (source Baxter)
That equates to a swing of 8.7%.
Labour actually gained 146 seats in 1997 and got a swing of 8.8%.
You're wrong, the Con to Lab swing in 1997 was 10%.
Labour's vote share went up by 8.8%.
Edit - Beaten to it by DixieDean.
8.7% to get a majority of one is still almost as much as blairs swing of 10% in 1997.
So error acknowledged but my main point is still valid.
SKS has a huge challenge to win enough seats to get a majority. Sure it looks like he will right now, but enough Big Gs returning to the tories and Scottish Big Gs returning to the nats, and they quite easily might not.
If we all do as BigG suggested to punish Farage we get a Tory landslide. National Service here we come!
Reading all these posts while wondering what to vote. I’m never going to vote Con and anyway the candidate is Priti Patel. I want to vote Left-ish. So that’s Lab, LibDem or Green. Not keen on the latter, but I do really want to see us back in Europe, and in general I think SKS is over-cautious. But, if I vote LibDem will I let in Patel? Plus, so far, the Lab candidate is the only one who’s been putting in any practical effort. There’s an Indie who’s done a bit, but I really can’t see her getting anywhere. So it’s with regret that I shall vote Lab, and hope she squeezes over the line.
Mrs C has no such concerns; she’s had enough of the Cons and has never shared my admiration of the LibDems.
Witham was Labour in 1997 and 2001 of course when it was part of Braintree constituency
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
I will not support the conservatives with Farage as leader and to suggest such a thing is just your bitterness sadly
Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless
Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage
And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
Reading all these posts while wondering what to vote. I’m never going to vote Con and anyway the candidate is Priti Patel. I want to vote Left-ish. So that’s Lab, LibDem or Green. Not keen on the latter, but I do really want to see us back in Europe, and in general I think SKS is over-cautious. But, if I vote LibDem will I let in Patel? Plus, so far, the Lab candidate is the only one who’s been putting in any practical effort. There’s an Indie who’s done a bit, but I really can’t see her getting anywhere. So it’s with regret that I shall vote Lab, and hope she squeezes over the line.
Mrs C has no such concerns; she’s had enough of the Cons and has never shared my admiration of the LibDems.
My thoughts are this: your vote has very little chance of being decisive, but mighy encourage others next time around. So vote for who you most favour. Sounds daft that the last sentence might in any way be seen as an insight, but that's the effect of the system we have.
I've just had my first ever swimming lesson as an adult
It was with an Ironman triathlete who has achieved a sub-9 hour time. I don't think he was impressed with my self-taught swimming style. But at least the lake was warm.
(Perhaps I should have got swimming lessons earlier...)
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
I will not support the conservatives with Farage as leader and to suggest such a thing is just your bitterness sadly
Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless
Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage
And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
Yes, you will. Really, you will. Because that’s word for word what you said about Johnson, before you voted for him.
Please stop posting your BS here; if you don’t know your own mind, go take a rest.
"Reform candidates' offensive remarks seen by BBC"
The following is pretty weak sauce to lead the article though:
"Among the candidates whose comments the BBC has uncovered is Simon Moorehead, standing in Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West, who wrote on X: "[Jo] Cox was a dreadful woman, with bad ideas". He then added: "No-one wanted her dead though"."
Notice how the journalist splits the post up into single sentences to imply the second was an afterthought.
The Economist only has Labour clearing the winning post by 55 seats, which doesn't seem that many, (although of course you double that figure to get the majority).
I keep pointing out that SKS needs the sort of swing Blair had in 1997 to get a majority of 1.
You may well do. Doesn't make it true though.
Sigh.
Had the 2019 election been fought on the current boundaries, the Tories would have had a majority of 136 despite, the SNP winning virtually every seat in Scotland, with Labour getting just 169 seats.
So Labour need to gain 157 seats to get a majority of one. (source Baxter)
That equates to a swing of 8.7%.
Labour actually gained 146 seats in 1997 and got a swing of 8.8%.
You're wrong, the Con to Lab swing in 1997 was 10%.
Labour's vote share went up by 8.8%.
Edit - Beaten to it by DixieDean.
8.7% to get a majority of one is still almost as much as blairs swing of 10% in 1997.
So error acknowledged but my main point is still valid.
SKS has a huge challenge to win enough seats to get a majority. Sure it looks like he will right now, but enough Big Gs returning to the tories and Scottish Big Gs returning to the nats, and they quite easily might not.
At this stage of the game there'll either have to be a spectacular swingback in the closing days of the campaign, or a truly heroic polling failure, or both to deprive Labour of any kind of majority.
There's still nothing yet to suggest in the polling that the expected march of the wealthy olds back into the Tory camp has commenced, nor any particular reason to suppose that there is a huge shy Tory vote that the models have failed to take into account.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
I will not support the conservatives with Farage as leader and to suggest such a thing is just your bitterness sadly
Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless
Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage
And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
Yes, you will. Really, you will. Because that’s word for word what you said about Johnson, before you voted for him.
Please stop posting your BS here; if you don’t know your own mind, go take a rest.
Comments
I'd only add the caveat that this should only happen with the agreement and support of the majority of Ukrainians themselves, rather than being imposed upon them.
Pretty insane plan anyway, but having not succeeded in the first aim rolling armed men up the motorway and then just calling it off is on a whole other level.
https://www.clpd.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Keir-Starmers-10-Pledges.pdf
How’s that worked out ?
There are two sides in any attempt to rejoin
Easy. They want a government that can do stuff, without being blamed for any of it themselves.
If using another phrase ("whether to help the Ukrainians or not help them"?) illustrates the point better, please accept my apologies and use the better phrase.
Does our accession to CPTPP preclude accession to the EEA? If the UK doesn't have to ask for bespoke terms then there is no particular reason to suppose that it will be refused.
I do think there's a sensible point to make in this, though. The UK really does need money. Working people really are paying quite a lot of tax at the moment. If you are comfortable enough to attract CGT it is worth at least considering whether you want to be a free rider on others' CGT contributions or whether you want to contribute (more) yourself. (I'm trying not to write that in a loaded way, it's not meant that way).
that's a high bar that I can't see a government meeting in the next 20 years.
Also, when it came to it, there would need to be some serious reforms in the EU (CAP, CFP etc) before there'd be a vote to join.
In other words - it's not gonna happen.
Quality candidates
Had the 2019 election been fought on the current boundaries, the Tories would have had a majority of 136 despite, the SNP winning virtually every seat in Scotland, with Labour getting just 169 seats.
So Labour need to gain 157 seats to get a majority of one. (source Baxter)
That equates to a swing of 8.7%.
Labour actually gained 146 seats in 1997 and got a swing of 8.8%.
A lot of Jews also felt they would be safer in a truly multiracial society than in a monocultural society where they were one conspicuous minority (and often a successful minority). Again highly understandable. So Jews often campaigned for liberal immigration policies in western countries in general
Where this becomes nonsense is making the enormous leap from that to “there is some secret Jewish cabal trying to replace all white people with migrants”
Conspiracy theories generally need a seed of truth on which to form, like a pearl around grit
And then you get the crazy ones which are just true. I remember my mad ex father in law telling me “there is a secret island in the Caribbean where American presidents and famous billionaires and bill **** and British royals are flown to have sex with underage girls”
My, how I laughed
Also we have no way to tell what other trading deals are done outside the EU which will make things more complex
I know many are very nostalgic for our days as members but those days are in the past and will not return in their previous form
Not sure that's a massively compelling slogan
Michael Gove: Election betting row is as damaging as partygate
Turning up at Silverstone earlier this month for the Conservative manifesto launch, Michael Gove was asked why he had now decided to leave frontline politics.
“In Formula One terms I am a bit of a James Hunt,” he replied, a nod to the British racing driver who in 1979 quit half-way through the season after losing enthusiasm for the sport and realising his team’s car was uncompetitive.....
....The divorced father-of two claims he has only ever made one political bet when he put money on Hillary Clinton to beat Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential race. “That was literally a world away,” he said. “But this is, as far as I can tell, an allegation about people using privileged inside information to secure an advantage that wasn’t available to others.”
Accusing those involved of “sucking the oxygen out of the campaign”, he said that, just as with partygate, “a few individuals end up creating an incredibly damaging atmosphere for the party”.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/michael-gove-tories-general-election-interview-5j7q36n5d
We've heard that many times before, of course. All it means is that when the fight comes, and when you are threatened, your opponent is that much stronger, and you are that much weaker
History does not just suggest, it commands, that the earlier you confront an aggressor, the less dangerous it is.
The swing from the Tories was 10%.
A 10 % swing on Baxter in the unlikely event of LD, Green and Reform staying the same is a 64 majority.
However. All polling and anecdotal evidence points to the Labour vote becoming much more efficient.
And Scottish polling blows UNS out of the water any ways.
Your line of argument maintains that the Tories didn't win a majority in 2015.
Cameron undershot the swing he "needed" to win by some margin.
FPTP doesn't work like that.
Labour's vote share went up by 8.8%.
Edit - Beaten to it by DixieDean.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/04/06/labours-vote-is-becoming-rather-efficient/
About thirty years ago, in a time before Muslims were high profile and it was us Catholics who were smeared as hiding bombs in our bags given half a chance, a now long dead priest said to me that it is a mathematical inevitability that cultures that practice contraception and abortion will be replaced with cultures that don't.
And I wouldn't.
Politics has cost him a lot personally, it is responsible for his divorce and his friendship with the Camerons (remember Gove was godfather to Ivan Cameron.)
Does it sound a lot like jizz?
The biggest margins for Brexit were the two midlands regions.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/article/2024/jun/22/flagship-free-school-that-cost-35m-closes-due-to-lack-of-pupils
Crucifixion was a Roman punishment.
If the Jews had their way, they would have stoned him.
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
As Christ was a Jew. Not a Christian.
So error acknowledged but my main point is still valid.
SKS has a huge challenge to win enough seats to get a majority. Sure it looks like he will right now, but enough Big Gs returning to the tories and Scottish Big Gs returning to the nats, and they quite easily might not.
I think I am going to get my arse handed to me on a plate this time around. I was expecting a narrowing as the election approached, but this has failed to materialise. I still find sub 200 bizarre and sub 150 literally inconceivable, and this is affecting my betting for the worse.
🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday @Telegraph
📉Lowest ever Conservative vote share under Sunak, again
🌹Lab 42 (+2)
🌳Con 19 (-2)
➡️Reform 16 (+2)
🔶LD 9 (-2)
🌍Green 5 (+1)
🎗️SNP 3 (=)
⬜️Other 6 (+1)
2,103 UK adults
19-21 June (chg from 14-16 June)
I like the one in America.
The MAGA lot: Immigrants are drug dealers and rapists coming over here to steal our jobs.
Which begs the question just what jobs do the MAGA actually have.
But, if I vote LibDem will I let in Patel? Plus, so far, the Lab candidate is the only one who’s been putting in any practical effort. There’s an Indie who’s done a bit, but I really can’t see her getting anywhere.
So it’s with regret that I shall vote Lab, and hope she squeezes over the line.
Mrs C has no such concerns; she’s had enough of the Cons and has never shared my admiration of the LibDems.
"Reform candidates' offensive remarks seen by BBC"
The following is pretty weak sauce to lead the article though:
"Among the candidates whose comments the BBC has uncovered is Simon Moorehead, standing in Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West, who wrote on X: "[Jo] Cox was a dreadful woman, with bad ideas".
He then added: "No-one wanted her dead though"."
Notice how the journalist splits the post up into single sentences to imply the second was an afterthought.
That refers to the once unbroken chain of Labour seats from the Mersey to the Humber.
If we can't agree on a definition a term loses all validity.
Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless
Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage
And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
Will rich countries welcome them the way they did Chinese students?"
https://www.economist.com/international/2024/06/20/brainy-indians-are-piling-into-western-universities
Sounds daft that the last sentence might in any way be seen as an insight, but that's the effect of the system we have.
Lab 504
LD 53
Con 43
SNP 21
PC 4
Ref 3
Green 2
Others 20
It was with an Ironman triathlete who has achieved a sub-9 hour time. I don't think he was impressed with my self-taught swimming style. But at least the lake was warm.
(Perhaps I should have got swimming lessons earlier...)
Please stop posting your BS here; if you don’t know your own mind, go take a rest.
There's still nothing yet to suggest in the polling that the expected march of the wealthy olds back into the Tory camp has commenced, nor any particular reason to suppose that there is a huge shy Tory vote that the models have failed to take into account.