To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
In the case of Tower Hamlets, the criminal theft of votes was proven in court.
Friend of mine used to live in Tower Hamlets, and was registered for a postal vote. One year it didn’t arrive, so she went to the Office to complain, and was told to go straight to the police. She did, and a large bundle of voting forms was subsequently found in the house of the Council official who was supposed to distribute them. That’s what she told me, anyway.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
In the case of Tower Hamlets, the criminal theft of votes was proven in court.
Friend of mine used to live in Tower Hamlets, and was registered for a postal vote. One year it didn’t arrive, so she went to the Office to complain, and was told to go straight to the police. She did, and a large bundle of voting forms was subsequently found in the house of the Council official who was supposed to distribute them. That’s what she told me, anyway.
My flatmate had his vote stolen - polling card sent to a different flat. That apparently had dozens of people living there. When he tried to report it to the police a curious saga ensued.
He was first told that it wasn’t a crime. Yes, really. He was told nothing would be done.
He insisted on making a statement. When asked to sign it, he read it. It bore no relation to what he had said, included an addition of a fictitious kicking on the door of the flat his vote had been registered to (he never went there) and was full of crude and racist language. He was a Lib Dem of the kind who would stop a conversation to correct someone for not using First Australians to refer to the original inhabitants - not exactly the chap to call people P**i….
When asked, they claimed that the statement was accurate, it would take too much time to change it and they would change it later. He said he would wait. In the end they managed to write down his recorded words accurately.
All in all it took him the better part of a day to record a crime.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
I will not support the conservatives with Farage as leader and to suggest such a thing is just your bitterness sadly
Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless
Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage
And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
The issue is, you have said you would not support the Conservatives after Partygate, after Truss, after the D-Day debacle, yet in the end you still find a reason to support them.
That is your absolute right of course but don't be surprised if no one believes you wouldn't support them under Farage.
I have said I will not support Farage and to suggest I would is just an exercise in trying to discredit my change 9f view which was 3xplained on here and indeed @Heathener and others supported that decision
I have been married to my dear wife for 60 years and I can affirm on that marriage I will not support Farage
BS
I give up - you are simply a nasty piece of work and no advert for the Lib Dems
On occasions when posters become personally abusive to others they leave, but I am not going to do that but hope others will see that your vindictiveness is unacceptable
If you say one thing over and over, and then do the opposite, some people might find it tricky to believe you next time you say something. Surely you must realise this?
I feel like sitting you down and giving you the Travolta speech from Get Shorty: I'm the guy who's telling you the way things are. Big G does not owe you a vote. He does not owe you honesty about his vote (though I am confident he is honest). He does not owe you consistency. He does not owe you anything, including a defence in your online Star Chamber.
And if you post your views on a public internet forum, over and over, no-one owes you a free ride, either.
Especially when said poster has so often attacked our HY for his blind tribalism, despite all the bad stuff.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
I will not support the conservatives with Farage as leader and to suggest such a thing is just your bitterness sadly
Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless
Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage
And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
The issue is, you have said you would not support the Conservatives after Partygate, after Truss, after the D-Day debacle, yet in the end you still find a reason to support them.
That is your absolute right of course but don't be surprised if no one believes you wouldn't support them under Farage.
I have said I will not support Farage and to suggest I would is just an exercise in trying to discredit my change 9f view which was 3xplained on here and indeed @Heathener and others supported that decision
I have been married to my dear wife for 60 years and I can affirm on that marriage I will not support Farage
BS
It has been interesting to see you and Casino both go off the deep end in this election. From reasonable posters you have both become rather loony in recent weeks. Hopefully normality will return once the election is over.
Leon demeans this forum with his poison and self-obsession, and G expects us to collude in his patent self delusion, which we’ve seen exposed during two successive elections.
Other than dealing with those, I have always been a solid pillar of reason.
Has it ever occurred to you that perhaps - just perhaps - and I mean no criticism here, this comes from a place of love and concern - that you are a bitter, friendless old c*nt who fucks dogs?
Would people please stop doing this? Irony meters are expensive.
I’m only joking. I’m not even going to St Malo I’m going to the island. Paying @IanB2 a surprise visit - I think we’ll get on fine in real life and I’ve brought a chewy meat treat from Pets R Us for his “wife” to break the ice
I have fond childhood memories of the Isle of Wight. I worry you'll find it horribly pedestrian, but it is rather lovely. Shanklin Chine is interesting historically and is charming - a gorge with history of building a pipeline under the channel to give fuel for the allied invasion of France. I like Ventnor too. I hope you'll appreciate it for what it is.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
Regarding Ukraine. In response to some of the more useful commentary today have been thinking what my position actually is, what should happen.
I think firstly, that the objective should be to de-escalate the conflict. This would be undertaken in full knowledge that it will restart when Russia thinks it has an advantage. So it would not be done naively and the first principle would be that Ukraine retains the ability to defend itself. Beyond this the goal should be to try and find a strategic solution to the issue of security in Europe, given the threat from Russia.
To change my mind about this I would need some evidence that Ukraine can actually win the war. What equipment do they need etc, what would be the strategy, have they got the people to do it. Or alternatively, that the Russian state is about to collapse. But it just appears highly resilient to me. Also, reassurance that the nuclear paradox can be overcome- a relevant factor in both scenarios. I am not going to give any weight to the 'moral argument' or being called a Putin appeaser.
Sadly, in Geopolitics moral arguments and allowing emotional considerations, fairness and pity to influence your key strategic decisions are a dangerous indulgence.
Geopolitics can be cold. But there's also an awful lot of 'coldly pragmatic' takes that are nothing of the sort, especially when pretending some kind of high minded neutrality.
How do you stop Russia, today, attacking Ukraine? Why should they? What is the compelling reason that you can give them?
Basically settle an armistice on defendable lines and ensure roUkraine have the means to defend it.
I'm not sure though that Russia will sign one now. They seem quite happy to feed peasants from the -stans to the front line until Ukraine run out of men. The nuclear blackmail stops the west sending troops a la US in 1917 which is the only way that Ukraine could actually win in terms of retaining their current internationally accepted borders.
Yes but - the rumours I hear are that Russia is getting chewed to pieces and they are forced to recruit new soldiers in the Sahel. That’s not a great sign
Russia’s manpower is not infinite. And my sense from my visit to Ukraine was of grim determination to continue the fight if needs be. I sensed no defeatism - more sadness, grief and anger
It will be interesting to see if Dura’s observations concur
Labour will say that before entering government to ensure they win, once the redwall seats are safely back in the Labour column they will certainly start to shift to rejoining a CU by the end of their first term. If re elected they will then look to rejoin the single market and if they get a third term they might even consider rejoining the full EU albeit that is less likely, especially if the Euro is required
Once again. It's nowt to do with RedWall seats. The biggest margins for Brexit were the two midlands regions.
And plenty of redwall seats there in areas like West Bromwich and Stoke and Mansfield
But that's not the Red Wall!!! That refers to the once unbroken chain of Labour seats from the Mersey to the Humber. If we can't agree on a definition a term loses all validity.
I thought this post was coming. And it's true. But I think HYUFD is also right that there is a 'type' of seat described by the term red wall. Certainly I am entirely untriggered by calling Stoke red wall, but get a bit upset by calling Bury North red wall - the latter being a moderately middle class swing seat.
I despise the term. It's London media speak for the urban North. And increasingly the urban Midlands too. Which is entirely homogeneous and speaks with one voice and attitude. Of course.
I don't like it when it's used to describe Bury North, for example. But I'm happy enough with urban/industrial/post industrial - always Labour until 2017/2019.
But I agree a term isn't particularly helpful if we don't all understand the same things by it, and I've heard your definition too.
For red wall spotters, there were 37 seats that the Conservatives won in 2019 that wouldn't have been won on a UNS from 2010. 6 in Wales and 1 in Scotland, 18 in the north of England and 12 in the midlands based on the statistical regions. None south of Birmingham except Bridgend. This definition excludes Bury North, but includes Bury South (which itself doesn't include Bury, lol). And finally, this group does not stretch from one coast to the other.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
I will not support the conservatives with Farage as leader and to suggest such a thing is just your bitterness sadly
Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless
Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage
And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
The issue is, you have said you would not support the Conservatives after Partygate, after Truss, after the D-Day debacle, yet in the end you still find a reason to support them.
That is your absolute right of course but don't be surprised if no one believes you wouldn't support them under Farage.
Exactly. Mr G’s vote is his own affair (or maybe his wife’s), but he could meanwhile do us a favour and stop posting such self-deluded rubbish here.
He can post what he likes. Some might find repetitive photos of dogs on mountainsides and outside restaurants to be a load of bollocks, at least Big G’s posts give us some insight into, you know, politics and therefore political betting.
I don’t understand why people are getting so bent out of shape. Just scroll past his posts if they trouble you so much, and mine if they annoy you.
Because Libdems are like supporters of a third division club that was top dog in 1910 and won the Championship and FA Cup with regular monotony, think a (deserved) return to the glory days is round every corner and get very tetchy everytime a potential convert slips away.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
That's the best reason I have heard for voting Con - but its stilll not a great one!
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
On topic - TSE has those click-bait headlines sorted now!
If the movement cited dictated the votes of all concerned that would work out as a 1% or 2% closure of the gap. Meanwhile the three gold standard polling companies (on past record) have the gap at 17-21%. Thoush they do all also have the Cons 5-9% clear of Ref UK
Yes, I decided to ditch my usual subtle style and go for the clickbait headlines.
I miss the Shakespeare.
Did you decide quoting Shakespeare was a custom more honoured in the breach than in the observance?
I do have a few more Shakespeare inspired headlines coming up.
It was sheer luck that so many Macbeth quotes seemed apt for the Humza Yousaf ditching the Greens/getting replaced threads.
Still, to important matters. That was two-thirds of a good finale and one-third dull ending. For the Nth time they could not stick the landing - Moffat syndrome, only with extra RTD. There was tea and hugging and smiling. We still don't know who Angie Watts is. Yes I know she's the [redacted] but let's pretend she isn't for a bit. Ncuti is good not great, but miles better than Jodes. All in all, not bad season.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
I will not support the conservatives with Farage as leader and to suggest such a thing is just your bitterness sadly
Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless
Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage
And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
Yes, you will. Really, you will. Because that’s word for word what you said about Johnson, before you voted for him.
Please stop posting your BS here; if you don’t know your own mind, go take a rest.
Seems to be some unnecessary attacks on @Big_G_NorthWales this evening.
Sounds to me like he is one of many tory voters who perhaps liked the Cameron years who are agonising on what is the right thing to do this election.
Ignore them at your betting peril.
FWIW: I now expect a very very late swing back to Tory party that polls will not pick up until day or two before if at all.
Actually, it appears that they have factored in the "swing back". Their derision looks to be based on the "You do this every election" theme.
The question is, how many nose-holders will endure the odour as they put their cross in the Conservative box to ensure that Nigel cannot win?
Not enough!
My twopence worth is that this time the "shy Tories" are in fact "shy Reform".
@Georgia_Edkins 💥EXCLUSIVE💥First Minister John Swinney has now also been dragged into the SNP election expenses stamp row
Explosive messages obtained by MoS show the FM's office manager was also involved in discussions about the use of stamps allegedly paid for by the public purse.
In one message sent to a group chat, they wrote: ‘The stamp fairy is very useful when it comes to campaigns!’
I expect the next Deltapoll will place Reform ahead of the Conservatives.
No Prime Minister has been more hated than Sunak, in my lifetime.
I am not a voting expert (I'm not an expert about anything really) but the inefficiency of the Reform vote (and the UKIP vote before it) is something that has only really fully become apparent to me this election. I really would have thought that it would be more efficient - a lot more focussed geographically in Brexity type left-behind towns. They are not anywhere in Scotland, that is surely a help. Not anywhere in London either. So I just can't fathom why that 16% is spreading out so thinly.
Some of this is because there’s been a big swing to Labour in those sorts of areas and therefore that will block Reform’s way to the seats.
However, if Reform do manage to get themselves into the high teens on polling day, the chances are that they’ll do a bit better on seat count than expected, I suspect.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
Elite school vote, pretty big on here.
Indeed. It doesn't hurt to remind ourselves occasionally that the regular poster community on PB is not wholly representative of the electorate at large.
On topic - TSE has those click-bait headlines sorted now!
If the movement cited dictated the votes of all concerned that would work out as a 1% or 2% closure of the gap. Meanwhile the three gold standard polling companies (on past record) have the gap at 17-21%. Thoush they do all also have the Cons 5-9% clear of Ref UK
Yes, I decided to ditch my usual subtle style and go for the clickbait headlines.
I miss the Shakespeare.
Did you decide quoting Shakespeare was a custom more honoured in the breach than in the observance?
I do have a few more Shakespeare inspired headlines coming up.
It was sheer luck that so many Macbeth quotes seemed apt for the Humza Yousaf ditching the Greens/getting replaced threads.
No luck about it: there is a tide in the affairs of men...
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
I will not support the conservatives with Farage as leader and to suggest such a thing is just your bitterness sadly
Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless
Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage
And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
The issue is, you have said you would not support the Conservatives after Partygate, after Truss, after the D-Day debacle, yet in the end you still find a reason to support them.
That is your absolute right of course but don't be surprised if no one believes you wouldn't support them under Farage.
I have said I will not support Farage and to suggest I would is just an exercise in trying to discredit my change 9f view which was 3xplained on here and indeed @Heathener and others supported that decision
I have been married to my dear wife for 60 years and I can affirm on that marriage I will not support Farage
BS
You are making a mistake here. For you, Johnson and Farage are more or less in the same category and you are failing to account for the fact that many other people see them as very different characters.
That’s missing the point.
Every PB’er can see that G, or G’s wife, or both of them, are tribal Tory voters who when it comes to it will always find whatever reason they can to justify voting Tory. There’s nothing wrong with that - it’s essentially the HY position (who incidentally G has spent many of his own posts criticising). What is so insulting to the rest of us is that everything he posts meantime is essentially dishonest, whether deliberately or otherwise.
Spare us all from this tedious feud you have with him.
What would PB be without tedious feuds? Not sure there’s a poster on here without one.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
Still, to important matters. That was two-thirds of a good finale and one-third dull ending. For the Nth time they could not stick the landing - Moffat syndrome, only with extra RTD. There was tea and hugging and smiling. We still don't know who Angie Watts is. Yes I know she's the [redacted] but let's pretend she isn't for a bit. Ncuti is good not great, but miles better than Jodes. All in all, not bad season.
She's The Rani and nobody can convince me otherwise.
But I enjoyed the finale.
I love Ncuti and have done since I first saw him in Sex Education.
I expect the next Deltapoll will place Reform ahead of the Conservatives.
No Prime Minister has been more hated than Sunak, in my lifetime.
I am not a voting expert (I'm not an expert about anything really) but the inefficiency of the Reform vote (and the UKIP vote before it) is something that has only really fully become apparent to me this election. I really would have thought that it would be more efficient - a lot more focussed geographically in Brexity type left-behind towns. They are not anywhere in Scotland, that is surely a help. Not anywhere in London either. So I just can't fathom why that 16% is spreading out so thinly.
Some of this is because there’s been a big swing to Labour in those sorts of areas and therefore that will block Reform’s way to the seats.
However, if Reform do manage to get themselves into the high teens on polling day, the chances are that they’ll do a bit better on seat count than expected, I suspect.
We don’t really know if Reform’s vote is inefficient or not.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
I will not support the conservatives with Farage as leader and to suggest such a thing is just your bitterness sadly
Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless
Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage
And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
The issue is, you have said you would not support the Conservatives after Partygate, after Truss, after the D-Day debacle, yet in the end you still find a reason to support them.
That is your absolute right of course but don't be surprised if no one believes you wouldn't support them under Farage.
I have said I will not support Farage and to suggest I would is just an exercise in trying to discredit my change 9f view which was 3xplained on here and indeed @Heathener and others supported that decision
I have been married to my dear wife for 60 years and I can affirm on that marriage I will not support Farage
BS
It has been interesting to see you and Casino both go off the deep end in this election. From reasonable posters you have both become rather loony in recent weeks. Hopefully normality will return once the election is over.
Leon demeans this forum with his poison and self-obsession, and G expects us to collude in his patent self delusion, which we’ve seen exposed during two successive elections.
Other than dealing with those, I have always been a solid pillar of reason.
Has it ever occurred to you that perhaps - just perhaps - and I mean no criticism here, this comes from a place of love and concern - that you are a bitter, friendless old c*nt who fucks dogs?
On topic - TSE has those click-bait headlines sorted now!
If the movement cited dictated the votes of all concerned that would work out as a 1% or 2% closure of the gap. Meanwhile the three gold standard polling companies (on past record) have the gap at 17-21%. Thoush they do all also have the Cons 5-9% clear of Ref UK
Yes, I decided to ditch my usual subtle style and go for the clickbait headlines.
I miss the Shakespeare.
Did you decide quoting Shakespeare was a custom more honoured in the breach than in the observance?
I do have a few more Shakespeare inspired headlines coming up.
It was sheer luck that so many Macbeth quotes seemed apt for the Humza Yousaf ditching the Greens/getting replaced threads.
No luck about it: there is a tide in the affairs of men...
TSE's headlines will stand Praising Humza's worth, despite his cruel hand.
I expect the next Deltapoll will place Reform ahead of the Conservatives.
No Prime Minister has been more hated than Sunak, in my lifetime.
Count me out squire. I really, really despised Johnson, and I suspect I am not alone. Rishi's OK by comparison.
I pity Sunak more than I dislike him. Because he’s just terrible at the job and clearly not possessed of the political skills to fulfil the role.
He's obviously bright. He's obviously analytical. But he has no political judgment whatsoever. That is not necessarily fatal but he absolutely needed a lot, and I mean a lot, of political nous around him. And the impression I get is that he has a lot to teach those around because he makes them look good. It's bordering on tragic. Worst campaign ever.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
I will not support the conservatives with Farage as leader and to suggest such a thing is just your bitterness sadly
Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless
Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage
And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
The issue is, you have said you would not support the Conservatives after Partygate, after Truss, after the D-Day debacle, yet in the end you still find a reason to support them.
That is your absolute right of course but don't be surprised if no one believes you wouldn't support them under Farage.
Exactly. Mr G’s vote is his own affair (or maybe his wife’s), but he could meanwhile do us a favour and stop posting such self-deluded rubbish here.
He can post what he likes. Some might find repetitive photos of dogs on mountainsides and outside restaurants to be a load of bollocks, at least Big G’s posts give us some insight into, you know, politics and therefore political betting.
I don’t understand why people are getting so bent out of shape. Just scroll past his posts if they trouble you so much, and mine if they annoy you.
Because Libdems are like supporters of a third division club that was top dog in 1910 and won the Championship and FA Cup with regular monotony, think a (deserved) return to the glory days is round every corner and get very tetchy everytime a potential convert slips away.
Tories in danger of becoming Preston North End, once The Invincibles, now 3rd rate also-rans.
Regarding Ukraine. In response to some of the more useful commentary today have been thinking what my position actually is, what should happen.
I think firstly, that the objective should be to de-escalate the conflict. This would be undertaken in full knowledge that it will restart when Russia thinks it has an advantage. So it would not be done naively and the first principle would be that Ukraine retains the ability to defend itself. Beyond this the goal should be to try and find a strategic solution to the issue of security in Europe, given the threat from Russia.
To change my mind about this I would need some evidence that Ukraine can actually win the war. What equipment do they need etc, what would be the strategy, have they got the people to do it. Or alternatively, that the Russian state is about to collapse. But it just appears highly resilient to me. Also, reassurance that the nuclear paradox can be overcome- a relevant factor in both scenarios. I am not going to give any weight to the 'moral argument' or being called a Putin appeaser.
Sadly, in Geopolitics moral arguments and allowing emotional considerations, fairness and pity to influence your key strategic decisions are a dangerous indulgence.
Geopolitics can be cold. But there's also an awful lot of 'coldly pragmatic' takes that are nothing of the sort, especially when pretending some kind of high minded neutrality.
How do you stop Russia, today, attacking Ukraine? Why should they? What is the compelling reason that you can give them?
Basically settle an armistice on defendable lines and ensure roUkraine have the means to defend it.
I'm not sure though that Russia will sign one now. They seem quite happy to feed peasants from the -stans to the front line until Ukraine run out of men. The nuclear blackmail stops the west sending troops a la US in 1917 which is the only way that Ukraine could actually win in terms of retaining their current internationally accepted borders.
Yes but - the rumours I hear are that Russia is getting chewed to pieces and they are forced to recruit new soldiers in the Sahel. That’s not a great sign
Russia’s manpower is not infinite. And my sense from my visit to Ukraine was of grim determination to continue the fight if needs be. I sensed no defeatism - more sadness, grief and anger
It will be interesting to see if Dura’s observations concur
It depends entirely on what Putin has to show for it at the end. Something substantive by way of a win, or that can be spun as such, and it becomes a second ‘great patriotic war’, a great national myth to justify the immense sacrifice, allied with some recognition and recompense for the families of the fallen.
If it turns out to be futile, your former hero Putin’s career expectancy shortens considerably.
@Georgia_Edkins 💥EXCLUSIVE💥First Minister John Swinney has now also been dragged into the SNP election expenses stamp row
Explosive messages obtained by MoS show the FM's office manager was also involved in discussions about the use of stamps allegedly paid for by the public purse.
In one message sent to a group chat, they wrote: ‘The stamp fairy is very useful when it comes to campaigns!’
Got an email alert saying Leon @'ed me and was worried I had taken a FAB up the ringpiece. I have not.
Dura Does Kharkov (A Last of the Summer Wine/Bourne Identity mashup)
Precedentary note for the Ultras: Don't bother reading this post. Instead print it out, burn it, grind the ashes to powder and then ram that still smouldering dust down the piss-holes of your palsied cocks with a bamboo skewer.
I got Wizz Air from Luton to Lublin and then picked up a fucked Mk.3 Golf TDI I had bought on the Internet from a liar. The front strut towers were completely rusted out and disguised with household emulsion. I replaced the fuel filter and cleaned out the EGR on the side of the street. It was down a glow plug, but I didn't have the tools for that and it still started fine so off I went.. That sound you can hear is foreshadowing.
I took the northern route into Ukraine skipping Lviv and got in with no problems. At a Nash Krazh (supermarket) car park near the border I bought a set of Ukrainian plates from a gopnik for 50 € and off we go to Kharkov.
In an alarming turn of events, it's now impossible to buy OOC amphetamines at Ukrainian truck stops because of the "war" or something so I had to rawdog it all the way to Kharkov on willpower. Plenty of lot lizards on the "Senior Tour" though.
I was going to Kharkov to recover educational and ID documents for our Ukrainians, if their flat still existed. I approached the flat armed only with a crowbar, a ready wit and an ability to run 3km in 10m 45s. The flat had been looted and picked clean, they even stole the front door (lol), but the documents were there and got them and myself the fuck out of there. I was in that adrenaline soaked hinterland where I was shitting myself but wanted something to happen, but it didn't.
"War is nine-tenths boredom, but that last hour... that last hour makes up for all..." -- Jack Aubrey
Then it was back to Kiev where I got pulled by the cops for the first and only time while I was walking down the street. I was given an on-the-spot fine of 100 € for the crime of being in possession of 100 €.
The Golf shat itself at the queue for the border so I abandoned it, crossed back into the EU on foot (26 Counties passport = no drama) and then RTB'ed via taxi/Wizz Air.
Next... Part #2 Observations
I’d give that a ‘like’ but I know you despise them.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
I will not support the conservatives with Farage as leader and to suggest such a thing is just your bitterness sadly
Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless
Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage
And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
Yes, you will. Really, you will. Because that’s word for word what you said about Johnson, before you voted for him.
Please stop posting your BS here; if you don’t know your own mind, go take a rest.
Seems to be some unnecessary attacks on @Big_G_NorthWales this evening.
Sounds to me like he is one of many tory voters who perhaps liked the Cameron years who are agonising on what is the right thing to do this election.
Ignore them at your betting peril.
FWIW: I now expect a very very late swing back to Tory party that polls will not pick up until day or two before if at all.
Actually, it appears that they have factored in the "swing back". Their derision looks to be based on the "You do this every election" theme.
The question is, how many nose-holders will endure the odour as they put their cross in the Conservative box to ensure that Nigel cannot win?
Not enough!
My twopence worth is that this time the "shy Tories" are in fact "shy Reform".
Most of the ones I have come across are not too shy about. Some of them I know quite well and I was actually quite shocked that they think a mouthpiece like Farage is going to save us all. They were fairly adamant about it...
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
Elite school vote, pretty big on here.
Indeed. It doesn't hurt to remind ourselves occasionally that the regular poster community on PB is not wholly representative of the electorate at large.
Indeed,'...this is not just a voter...this is a PB voter.....'
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
I will not support the conservatives with Farage as leader and to suggest such a thing is just your bitterness sadly
Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless
Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage
And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
The issue is, you have said you would not support the Conservatives after Partygate, after Truss, after the D-Day debacle, yet in the end you still find a reason to support them.
That is your absolute right of course but don't be surprised if no one believes you wouldn't support them under Farage.
Exactly. Mr G’s vote is his own affair (or maybe his wife’s), but he could meanwhile do us a favour and stop posting such self-deluded rubbish here.
He can post what he likes. Some might find repetitive photos of dogs on mountainsides and outside restaurants to be a load of bollocks, at least Big G’s posts give us some insight into, you know, politics and therefore political betting.
I don’t understand why people are getting so bent out of shape. Just scroll past his posts if they trouble you so much, and mine if they annoy you.
Because Libdems are like supporters of a third division club that was top dog in 1910 and won the Championship and FA Cup with regular monotony, think a (deserved) return to the glory days is round every corner and get very tetchy everytime a potential convert slips away.
On topic - TSE has those click-bait headlines sorted now!
If the movement cited dictated the votes of all concerned that would work out as a 1% or 2% closure of the gap. Meanwhile the three gold standard polling companies (on past record) have the gap at 17-21%. Thoush they do all also have the Cons 5-9% clear of Ref UK
Yes, I decided to ditch my usual subtle style and go for the clickbait headlines.
I miss the Shakespeare.
Did you decide quoting Shakespeare was a custom more honoured in the breach than in the observance?
I do have a few more Shakespeare inspired headlines coming up.
It was sheer luck that so many Macbeth quotes seemed apt for the Humza Yousaf ditching the Greens/getting replaced threads.
No luck about it: there is a tide in the affairs of men...
Books will be written about how Richi chased the ebbing tide all the way out, and then got swamped
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
Would this be the same foreign policy genius previously responsible for single-handedly destroying the central plank of four decades of British diplomacy, for the sake of trying to end the career of the soon-to-be MP for Clacton?
I expect the next Deltapoll will place Reform ahead of the Conservatives.
No Prime Minister has been more hated than Sunak, in my lifetime.
I am not a voting expert (I'm not an expert about anything really) but the inefficiency of the Reform vote (and the UKIP vote before it) is something that has only really fully become apparent to me this election. I really would have thought that it would be more efficient - a lot more focussed geographically in Brexity type left-behind towns. They are not anywhere in Scotland, that is surely a help. Not anywhere in London either. So I just can't fathom why that 16% is spreading out so thinly.
Some of this is because there’s been a big swing to Labour in those sorts of areas and therefore that will block Reform’s way to the seats.
However, if Reform do manage to get themselves into the high teens on polling day, the chances are that they’ll do a bit better on seat count than expected, I suspect.
We don’t really know if Reform’s vote is inefficient or not.
We can guess from other third parties that it is. Even after decades, the Lib Dem vote is inefficient, the Green vote is very inefficient, and the Plaid vote is somewhat less inefficient. Ukip did better in 2015 than almost any recent Lib Dem performance, and they won just one seat where their MP had defected. Reform's lack of a regional support gradient in the recent local elections also indicates that this inefficiency will continue.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
Regarding Ukraine. In response to some of the more useful commentary today have been thinking what my position actually is, what should happen.
I think firstly, that the objective should be to de-escalate the conflict. This would be undertaken in full knowledge that it will restart when Russia thinks it has an advantage. So it would not be done naively and the first principle would be that Ukraine retains the ability to defend itself. Beyond this the goal should be to try and find a strategic solution to the issue of security in Europe, given the threat from Russia.
To change my mind about this I would need some evidence that Ukraine can actually win the war. What equipment do they need etc, what would be the strategy, have they got the people to do it. Or alternatively, that the Russian state is about to collapse. But it just appears highly resilient to me. Also, reassurance that the nuclear paradox can be overcome- a relevant factor in both scenarios. I am not going to give any weight to the 'moral argument' or being called a Putin appeaser.
Sadly, in Geopolitics moral arguments and allowing emotional considerations, fairness and pity to influence your key strategic decisions are a dangerous indulgence.
Geopolitics can be cold. But there's also an awful lot of 'coldly pragmatic' takes that are nothing of the sort, especially when pretending some kind of high minded neutrality.
How do you stop Russia, today, attacking Ukraine? Why should they? What is the compelling reason that you can give them?
Basically settle an armistice on defendable lines and ensure roUkraine have the means to defend it.
I'm not sure though that Russia will sign one now. They seem quite happy to feed peasants from the -stans to the front line until Ukraine run out of men. The nuclear blackmail stops the west sending troops a la US in 1917 which is the only way that Ukraine could actually win in terms of retaining their current internationally accepted borders.
Yes but - the rumours I hear are that Russia is getting chewed to pieces and they are forced to recruit new soldiers in the Sahel. That’s not a great sign
Russia’s manpower is not infinite. And my sense from my visit to Ukraine was of grim determination to continue the fight if needs be. I sensed no defeatism - more sadness, grief and anger
It will be interesting to see if Dura’s observations concur
It depends entirely on what Putin has to show for it at the end. Something substantive by way of a win, or that can be spun as such, and it becomes a second ‘great patriotic war’, a great national myth to justify the immense sacrifice, allied with some recognition and recompense for the families of the fallen.
If it turns out to be futile, Putin’s career expectancy shortens considerably.
How short do you have in mind?
The old bastard is 71 years old. Even if he does a header out of the window tomorrow, how many years in the nursing home do you think he is dodging?
I've got to take issue with this comment, @dixiedean
Compared to their usual level of performance actually building a school and not having it fall down on top of somebody is actually quite good. Even if it was plagued by problems.
Building it in the wrong place so it's more useless than Acland-Hood is a detail.
Lab 504 LD 53 Con 43 SNP 21 PC 4 Ref 3 Green 2 Others 20
SKS fans please explain
Explain what that non MRP Polls are exaggerating the Lab lead?
If anyone wants to bet SKS will get over 500 seats I am happy to oppose that in a charity bet!
I reckon the 10pm Exit poll is going to be as big a shock to SKS fans as the 2017 one.
But we will see.
If you think that Labour is going to do worse in seats than it did when Corbyn humiliatingly lost the 2017 election to a dead duck like Theresa May I’m happy to offer real money. The party led by your boy failed to get as many votes as another party. That’s how politics fucking works. You still fail to grasp that even a good second place is the first loser don’t you?
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
I was planning on campaigning for a few Tory MPs at the election even if I wasn't voting Tory sadly they either stood down and I ended up with the emergency surgery that has left me hors de combat.
I love campaigning and knocking up the voters on election day.
I expect the next Deltapoll will place Reform ahead of the Conservatives.
No Prime Minister has been more hated than Sunak, in my lifetime.
I am not a voting expert (I'm not an expert about anything really) but the inefficiency of the Reform vote (and the UKIP vote before it) is something that has only really fully become apparent to me this election. I really would have thought that it would be more efficient - a lot more focussed geographically in Brexity type left-behind towns. They are not anywhere in Scotland, that is surely a help. Not anywhere in London either. So I just can't fathom why that 16% is spreading out so thinly.
The Reform vote is evenly spread because they have no "ground game".
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
His clever comeback to the insult that he didn't know how to make a lady moan was the best thing about him, even if it did lead to a Glasgow knickermaker shaking down the treasury for the odd billion. His adoption of (he is not bright enough to have thought it up) the Let's give it to the NHS argument in AVref debased public discourse and democracy to an extent Mussolini would blanch at. He was the architect of Brexit.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
He doesn't have a vote...
Right. Even Cameron's not voting for Cameron as Forry Seck.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
I will not support the conservatives with Farage as leader and to suggest such a thing is just your bitterness sadly
Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless
Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage
And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
The issue is, you have said you would not support the Conservatives after Partygate, after Truss, after the D-Day debacle, yet in the end you still find a reason to support them.
That is your absolute right of course but don't be surprised if no one believes you wouldn't support them under Farage.
I have said I will not support Farage and to suggest I would is just an exercise in trying to discredit my change 9f view which was 3xplained on here and indeed @Heathener and others supported that decision
I have been married to my dear wife for 60 years and I can affirm on that marriage I will not support Farage
BS
I give up - you are simply a nasty piece of work and no advert for the Lib Dems
On occasions when posters become personally abusive to others they leave, but I am not going to do that but hope others will see that your vindictiveness is unacceptable
If you say one thing over and over, and then do the opposite, some people might find it tricky to believe you next time you say something. Surely you must realise this?
I feel like sitting you down and giving you the Travolta speech from Get Shorty: I'm the guy who's telling you the way things are. Big G does not owe you a vote. He does not owe you honesty about his vote (though I am confident he is honest). He does not owe you consistency. He does not owe you anything, including a defence in your online Star Chamber.
No, he owes none of those things to me. But I'm allowed to point out the truth that he says one thing -- over and over again -- then does the opposite. Everyone seems perfectly comfortable with people commenting on each other here. Lord knows people tell me I'm wrong often enough. I'm not sure why Big_G's hypocrisy is off limits as a thing to mention.
But there are ways and means. You’re clearly a spiteful and embittered person - you’ve shown that often enough. I’m an alcoholic bipolar narcissist. We are none of us perfect
But @Big_G_NorthWales is in his mid eighties and he’s been posting on here for decades and he’s generally cordial to almost everyone and he’s in slightly perilous health - and you just don’t attack someone with venom in that context - you can rebuke him with wit or teasing and still make your point, but in a kinder way?
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
Elite school vote, pretty big on here.
Indeed. It doesn't hurt to remind ourselves occasionally that the regular poster community on PB is not wholly representative of the electorate at large.
Indeed,'...this is not just a voter...this is a PB voter.....'
Quite right, Hyufd. Regular PB contributors should have five votes each.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
David Cameron most certainly won't be voting for Rishi. Firstly he lives in the wrong constituency; second, and even more crucially, sitting members of the House of Lords may not vote in Parliamentary elections.
On topic - TSE has those click-bait headlines sorted now!
If the movement cited dictated the votes of all concerned that would work out as a 1% or 2% closure of the gap. Meanwhile the three gold standard polling companies (on past record) have the gap at 17-21%. Thoush they do all also have the Cons 5-9% clear of Ref UK
Yes, I decided to ditch my usual subtle style and go for the clickbait headlines.
I miss the Shakespeare.
Did you decide quoting Shakespeare was a custom more honoured in the breach than in the observance?
I do have a few more Shakespeare inspired headlines coming up.
It was sheer luck that so many Macbeth quotes seemed apt for the Humza Yousaf ditching the Greens/getting replaced threads.
No luck about it: there is a tide in the affairs of men...
Books will be written about how Richi chased the ebbing tide all the way out, and then got swamped
Not according to Laura Kuenssberg.
She, and she says Labour do not believe the polls.
Regarding Ukraine. In response to some of the more useful commentary today have been thinking what my position actually is, what should happen.
I think firstly, that the objective should be to de-escalate the conflict. This would be undertaken in full knowledge that it will restart when Russia thinks it has an advantage. So it would not be done naively and the first principle would be that Ukraine retains the ability to defend itself. Beyond this the goal should be to try and find a strategic solution to the issue of security in Europe, given the threat from Russia.
To change my mind about this I would need some evidence that Ukraine can actually win the war. What equipment do they need etc, what would be the strategy, have they got the people to do it. Or alternatively, that the Russian state is about to collapse. But it just appears highly resilient to me. Also, reassurance that the nuclear paradox can be overcome- a relevant factor in both scenarios. I am not going to give any weight to the 'moral argument' or being called a Putin appeaser.
Sadly, in Geopolitics moral arguments and allowing emotional considerations, fairness and pity to influence your key strategic decisions are a dangerous indulgence.
Geopolitics can be cold. But there's also an awful lot of 'coldly pragmatic' takes that are nothing of the sort, especially when pretending some kind of high minded neutrality.
How do you stop Russia, today, attacking Ukraine? Why should they? What is the compelling reason that you can give them?
Basically settle an armistice on defendable lines and ensure roUkraine have the means to defend it.
I'm not sure though that Russia will sign one now. They seem quite happy to feed peasants from the -stans to the front line until Ukraine run out of men. The nuclear blackmail stops the west sending troops a la US in 1917 which is the only way that Ukraine could actually win in terms of retaining their current internationally accepted borders.
Yes but - the rumours I hear are that Russia is getting chewed to pieces and they are forced to recruit new soldiers in the Sahel. That’s not a great sign
Russia’s manpower is not infinite. And my sense from my visit to Ukraine was of grim determination to continue the fight if needs be. I sensed no defeatism - more sadness, grief and anger
It will be interesting to see if Dura’s observations concur
It is probably true that Putin is trapped into this conflict. If it stops with other than an outright victory, he will look weak. And he has cost vast sums for the pyramid of thieves that make up his system.
He may not see any way out in which he personally survives. At this point he is almost certainly President *only* for life.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
Elite school vote, pretty big on here.
Indeed. It doesn't hurt to remind ourselves occasionally that the regular poster community on PB is not wholly representative of the electorate at large.
Indeed,'...this is not just a voter...this is a PB voter.....'
Quite right, Hyufd. Regular PB contributors should have five votes each.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
I will not support the conservatives with Farage as leader and to suggest such a thing is just your bitterness sadly
Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless
Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage
And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
The issue is, you have said you would not support the Conservatives after Partygate, after Truss, after the D-Day debacle, yet in the end you still find a reason to support them.
That is your absolute right of course but don't be surprised if no one believes you wouldn't support them under Farage.
I have said I will not support Farage and to suggest I would is just an exercise in trying to discredit my change 9f view which was 3xplained on here and indeed @Heathener and others supported that decision
I have been married to my dear wife for 60 years and I can affirm on that marriage I will not support Farage
BS
It has been interesting to see you and Casino both go off the deep end in this election. From reasonable posters you have both become rather loony in recent weeks. Hopefully normality will return once the election is over.
Leon demeans this forum with his poison and self-obsession, and G expects us to collude in his patent self delusion, which we’ve seen exposed during two successive elections.
Other than dealing with those, I have always been a solid pillar of reason.
Has it ever occurred to you that perhaps - just perhaps - and I mean no criticism here, this comes from a place of love and concern - that you are a bitter, friendless old c*nt who fucks dogs?
Would people please stop doing this? Irony meters are expensive.
I’m only joking. I’m not even going to St Malo I’m going to the island. Paying @IanB2 a surprise visit - I think we’ll get on fine in real life and I’ve brought a chewy meat treat from Pets R Us for his “wife” to break the ice
I have fond childhood memories of the Isle of Wight. I worry you'll find it horribly pedestrian, but it is rather lovely. Shanklin Chine is interesting historically and is charming - a gorge with history of building a pipeline under the channel to give fuel for the allied invasion of France. I like Ventnor too. I hope you'll appreciate it for what it is.
The food is garbage. It is like stepping back into the 1950s. Pretty island, shit pubs.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
Elite school vote, pretty big on here.
Indeed. It doesn't hurt to remind ourselves occasionally that the regular poster community on PB is not wholly representative of the electorate at large.
Indeed,'...this is not just a voter...this is a PB voter.....'
Quite right, Hyufd. Regular PB contributors should have five votes each.
I expect the next Deltapoll will place Reform ahead of the Conservatives.
No Prime Minister has been more hated than Sunak, in my lifetime.
I am not a voting expert (I'm not an expert about anything really) but the inefficiency of the Reform vote (and the UKIP vote before it) is something that has only really fully become apparent to me this election. I really would have thought that it would be more efficient - a lot more focussed geographically in Brexity type left-behind towns. They are not anywhere in Scotland, that is surely a help. Not anywhere in London either. So I just can't fathom why that 16% is spreading out so thinly.
On PB, we often talk about how much of the 'ground game' is pointless busywork - but this seems like a clear case of where it would be useful.
As you say, their target constituencies should be obvious. A well-tuned local campaign machine really ought to be able to help them win in as many seats as the Lib Dems.
The question really is how they go about building that machine for the future. My impression of the Lib Dems is that they built theirs more or less from scratch in the 1990s rather than inheriting one from their predecessor parties. Perhaps Refuk need to find themselves a Chris Rennard?
Still, to important matters. That was two-thirds of a good finale and one-third dull ending. For the Nth time they could not stick the landing - Moffat syndrome, only with extra RTD. There was tea and hugging and smiling. We still don't know who Angie Watts is. Yes I know she's the [redacted] but let's pretend she isn't for a bit. Ncuti is good not great, but miles better than Jodes. All in all, not bad season.
She's The Rani and nobody can convince me otherwise.
But I enjoyed the finale.
I love Ncuti and have done since I first saw him in Sex Education.
I read somewhere on t'internet that they can't get the permission of the Rani copyright holder, so possibly not.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
He doesn't have a vote...
In a general?
Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.
*Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.
**This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
Still, to important matters. That was two-thirds of a good finale and one-third dull ending. For the Nth time they could not stick the landing - Moffat syndrome, only with extra RTD. There was tea and hugging and smiling. We still don't know who Angie Watts is. Yes I know she's the [redacted] but let's pretend she isn't for a bit. Ncuti is good not great, but miles better than Jodes. All in all, not bad season.
She's The Rani and nobody can convince me otherwise.
But I enjoyed the finale.
I love Ncuti and have done since I first saw him in Sex Education.
I read somewhere on t'internet that they can't get the permission of the Rani copyright holder, so possibly not.
I wish he'd stop crying.
Ruby's mum makes no sense.
I wanted the old Sutekh mask, not a CGI dog.
The big magic reset button is back with RTD. Consequences with no consequences
On topic - TSE has those click-bait headlines sorted now!
If the movement cited dictated the votes of all concerned that would work out as a 1% or 2% closure of the gap. Meanwhile the three gold standard polling companies (on past record) have the gap at 17-21%. Thoush they do all also have the Cons 5-9% clear of Ref UK
Yes, I decided to ditch my usual subtle style and go for the clickbait headlines.
I miss the Shakespeare.
Did you decide quoting Shakespeare was a custom more honoured in the breach than in the observance?
I do have a few more Shakespeare inspired headlines coming up.
It was sheer luck that so many Macbeth quotes seemed apt for the Humza Yousaf ditching the Greens/getting replaced threads.
No luck about it: there is a tide in the affairs of men...
Books will be written about how Richi chased the ebbing tide all the way out, and then got swamped
Not according to Laura Kuenssberg.
She, and she says Labour do not believe the polls.
I expect the next Deltapoll will place Reform ahead of the Conservatives.
No Prime Minister has been more hated than Sunak, in my lifetime.
Count me out squire. I really, really despised Johnson, and I suspect I am not alone. Rishi's OK by comparison.
I pity Sunak more than I dislike him. Because he’s just terrible at the job and clearly not possessed of the political skills to fulfil the role.
He's obviously bright. He's obviously analytical. But he has no political judgment whatsoever. That is not necessarily fatal but he absolutely needed a lot, and I mean a lot, of political nous around him. And the impression I get is that he has a lot to teach those around because he makes them look good. It's bordering on tragic. Worst campaign ever.
I was planning on campaigning for a few Tory MPs at the election even if I wasn't voting Tory sadly they either stood down and I ended up with the emergency surgery that has left me hors de combat.
I love campaigning and knocking up the voters on election day.
I expect the next Deltapoll will place Reform ahead of the Conservatives.
No Prime Minister has been more hated than Sunak, in my lifetime.
Count me out squire. I really, really despised Johnson, and I suspect I am not alone. Rishi's OK by comparison.
I pity Sunak more than I dislike him. Because he’s just terrible at the job and clearly not possessed of the political skills to fulfil the role.
He's obviously bright. He's obviously analytical. But he has no political judgment whatsoever. That is not necessarily fatal but he absolutely needed a lot, and I mean a lot, of political nous around him. And the impression I get is that he has a lot to teach those around because he makes them look good. It's bordering on tragic. Worst campaign ever.
Indeed.
The hint was that line as an undergrad about having no working-class friends. A basic wall of self-promotion, and self-protection, is missing. We all recall that this was not a problem that particularly afflicted the last election winner.
I was planning on campaigning for a few Tory MPs at the election even if I wasn't voting Tory sadly they either stood down and I ended up with the emergency surgery that has left me hors de combat.
I love campaigning and knocking up the voters on election day.
Was this the problem in your first marriage?
His job as a milkman ended (with much of the industry) and he was forced to slum it as a lawyer.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
Elite school vote, pretty big on here.
Indeed. It doesn't hurt to remind ourselves occasionally that the regular poster community on PB is not wholly representative of the electorate at large.
Indeed,'...this is not just a voter...this is a PB voter.....'
Quite right, Hyufd. Regular PB contributors should have five votes each.
Ten each for you and me.
Sod that. I demand a peerage.
Now, now, Nadine. You know what happened last time...
Another MOE survey but one that feels good for Labour despite being statistically insignificant.
There’s not much happening, is there?
No,it's starting to look like 40/20/15/10....or near as dammit.
People have generally made up their minds by now so can't see much change coming in the remaining 12 days.
40/20/15/10 is sub-100 seat territory for the Tories.
With FPTP, Ben, that could easily be fifty seats out either way. We don't know how much impact tactical voting will have either, nor how Reform's contribution will play out.
I'm currently expecting about 125 Tory seats but I wouldn't bet on it. Too volatile.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
Elite school vote, pretty big on here.
Indeed. It doesn't hurt to remind ourselves occasionally that the regular poster community on PB is not wholly representative of the electorate at large.
Indeed,'...this is not just a voter...this is a PB voter.....'
Quite right, Hyufd. Regular PB contributors should have five votes each.
Writing in the Daily Telegraph, the Reform UK leader said he had never been an "apologist or supporter of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin" but that "if you poke the Russian bear with a stick, don’t be surprised if he responds".
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
He doesn't have a vote...
In a general?
Members of the House of Lords do not have the vote in general elections.
Still, to important matters. That was two-thirds of a good finale and one-third dull ending. For the Nth time they could not stick the landing - Moffat syndrome, only with extra RTD. There was tea and hugging and smiling. We still don't know who Angie Watts is. Yes I know she's the [redacted] but let's pretend she isn't for a bit. Ncuti is good not great, but miles better than Jodes. All in all, not bad season.
She's The Rani and nobody can convince me otherwise.
But I enjoyed the finale.
I love Ncuti and have done since I first saw him in Sex Education.
I read somewhere on t'internet that they can't get the permission of the Rani copyright holder, so possibly not.
I wish he'd stop crying.
Ruby's mum makes no sense.
I wanted the old Sutekh mask, not a CGI dog.
The big magic reset button is back with RTD. Consequences with no consequences
All fart no follow through. He needs a three-part finale like Utopia/The Sound Of Drums/Last of the Time Lords. Otherwise it's just cliffhanger/reset-button
On topic - TSE has those click-bait headlines sorted now!
If the movement cited dictated the votes of all concerned that would work out as a 1% or 2% closure of the gap. Meanwhile the three gold standard polling companies (on past record) have the gap at 17-21%. Thoush they do all also have the Cons 5-9% clear of Ref UK
Yes, I decided to ditch my usual subtle style and go for the clickbait headlines.
I miss the Shakespeare.
Did you decide quoting Shakespeare was a custom more honoured in the breach than in the observance?
I do have a few more Shakespeare inspired headlines coming up.
It was sheer luck that so many Macbeth quotes seemed apt for the Humza Yousaf ditching the Greens/getting replaced threads.
No luck about it: there is a tide in the affairs of men...
Books will be written about how Richi chased the ebbing tide all the way out, and then got swamped
Not according to Laura Kuenssberg.
She, and she says Labour do not believe the polls.
Neither do I. Shy Tories, Rishi's Labour tax bomb, don't knows, punish Nigel surge and don't let Labour get a landslide surgecould all happen.
I was going to post that. It actually shows the opposite of what you’re saying. You need to let go of 1992 mate. This isn’t 1992. Labour might not wipe out the Tories but if you’re correct in your prognostications you wouldn’t be wasting your time on here but instead researching financial advisers. You can get 100 on BF Tories most seats. It’s largely thanks to you I’ve thrown a tenner that way as pretty fucking massive emotional hedge. But I expect to lose it.
I was planning on campaigning for a few Tory MPs at the election even if I wasn't voting Tory sadly they either stood down and I ended up with the emergency surgery that has left me hors de combat.
I love campaigning and knocking up the voters on election day.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
In the case of Tower Hamlets, the criminal theft of votes was proven in court.
Friend of mine used to live in Tower Hamlets, and was registered for a postal vote. One year it didn’t arrive, so she went to the Office to complain, and was told to go straight to the police. She did, and a large bundle of voting forms was subsequently found in the house of the Council official who was supposed to distribute them. That’s what she told me, anyway.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
In the case of Tower Hamlets, the criminal theft of votes was proven in court.
Friend of mine used to live in Tower Hamlets, and was registered for a postal vote. One year it didn’t arrive, so she went to the Office to complain, and was told to go straight to the police. She did, and a large bundle of voting forms was subsequently found in the house of the Council official who was supposed to distribute them. That’s what she told me, anyway.
My flatmate had his vote stolen - polling card sent to a different flat. That apparently had dozens of people living there. When he tried to report it to the police a curious saga ensued.
He was first told that it wasn’t a crime. Yes, really. He was told nothing would be done.
He insisted on making a statement. When asked to sign it, he read it. It bore no relation to what he had said, included an addition of a fictitious kicking on the door of the flat his vote had been registered to (he never went there) and was full of crude and racist language. He was a Lib Dem of the kind who would stop a conversation to correct someone for not using First Australians to refer to the original inhabitants - not exactly the chap to call people P**i….
When asked, they claimed that the statement was accurate, it would take too much time to change it and they would change it later. He said he would wait. In the end they managed to write down his recorded words accurately.
All in all it took him the better part of a day to record a crime.
Oh, and no further action was taken.
That is a shocking anecdote. And yet I’m not full of doubt. Any organisation with that little trust must go.
Another MOE survey but one that feels good for Labour despite being statistically insignificant.
There’s not much happening, is there?
No,it's starting to look like 40/20/15/10....or near as dammit.
People have generally made up their minds by now so can't see much change coming in the remaining 12 days.
40/20/15/10 is sub-100 seat territory for the Tories.
With FPTP, Ben, that could easily be fifty seats out either way. We don't know how much impact tactical voting will have either, nor how Reform's contribution will play out.
I'm currently expecting about 125 Tory seats but I wouldn't bet on it. Too volatile.
Good point. I'm relying on Electoral Calculus, I suspect it becomes meaningless at these sort of numbers.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
I will not support the conservatives with Farage as leader and to suggest such a thing is just your bitterness sadly
Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless
Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage
And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
The issue is, you have said you would not support the Conservatives after Partygate, after Truss, after the D-Day debacle, yet in the end you still find a reason to support them.
That is your absolute right of course but don't be surprised if no one believes you wouldn't support them under Farage.
I have said I will not support Farage and to suggest I would is just an exercise in trying to discredit my change 9f view which was 3xplained on here and indeed @Heathener and others supported that decision
I have been married to my dear wife for 60 years and I can affirm on that marriage I will not support Farage
BS
You are making a mistake here. For you, Johnson and Farage are more or less in the same category and you are failing to account for the fact that many other people see them as very different characters.
That’s missing the point.
Every PB’er can see that G, or G’s wife, or both of them, are tribal Tory voters who when it comes to it will always find whatever reason they can to justify voting Tory. There’s nothing wrong with that - it’s essentially the HY position (who incidentally G has spent many of his own posts criticising). What is so insulting to the rest of us is that everything he posts meantime is essentially dishonest, whether deliberately or otherwise.
Spare us all from this tedious feud you have with him.
What would PB be without tedious feuds? Not sure there’s a poster on here without one.
@kle4 I don't recall anything between them and any other poster. I might start one just for fun
Bring it on.
I just pray others will not get get caught in the crossfire of this epic battle, they are the true innocents in all this.
Writing in the Daily Telegraph, the Reform UK leader said he had never been an "apologist or supporter of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin" but that "if you poke the Russian bear with a stick, don’t be surprised if he responds".
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
Elite school vote, pretty big on here.
Indeed. It doesn't hurt to remind ourselves occasionally that the regular poster community on PB is not wholly representative of the electorate at large.
Indeed,'...this is not just a voter...this is a PB voter.....'
Quite right, Hyufd. Regular PB contributors should have five votes each.
Ten each for you and me.
Sod that. I demand a peerage.
Now, now, Nadine. You know what happened last time...
I know we have/have had our fair share of pols on here, but I am pleased to confirm that I am an obscure middle-aged homosexual from Hertfordshire, and not the crazed BoJo cheerleader and author of terrible yet inexplicably successful works of fiction.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
He doesn't have a vote...
In a general?
Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.
*Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.
**This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
Serious question, do the Royal Family have the vote?
On topic - TSE has those click-bait headlines sorted now!
If the movement cited dictated the votes of all concerned that would work out as a 1% or 2% closure of the gap. Meanwhile the three gold standard polling companies (on past record) have the gap at 17-21%. Thoush they do all also have the Cons 5-9% clear of Ref UK
Yes, I decided to ditch my usual subtle style and go for the clickbait headlines.
I miss the Shakespeare.
Did you decide quoting Shakespeare was a custom more honoured in the breach than in the observance?
I do have a few more Shakespeare inspired headlines coming up.
It was sheer luck that so many Macbeth quotes seemed apt for the Humza Yousaf ditching the Greens/getting replaced threads.
No luck about it: there is a tide in the affairs of men...
Books will be written about how Richi chased the ebbing tide all the way out, and then got swamped
Not according to Laura Kuenssberg.
She, and she says Labour do not believe the polls.
Neither do I. Shy Tories, Rishi's Labour tax bomb, don't knows, punish Nigel surge and don't let Labour get a landslide surgecould all happen.
I was going to post that. It actually shows the opposite of what you’re saying. You need to let go of 1992 mate. This isn’t 1992. Labour might not wipe out the Tories but if you’re correct in your prognostications you wouldn’t be wasting your time on here but instead researching financial advisers. You can get 100 on BF Tories most seats. It’s largely thanks to you I’ve thrown a tenner that way as pretty fucking massive emotional hedge. But I expect to lose it.
There seems to be a lot of gut feeling that what we are seeing cannot be what is really happening.
I'm not one to criticise that as a general approach, I tend to go by gut myself.
But when you break down all the factors at play, the apocalyptic scenarios look pretty plausuble to me.
I’ve just noticed my ferry to St Malo - pedestrian - costs £400 - for ONE person
Of course I’m not paying but who the heck would pay that when a flight is less than half and takes an hour rather than 10 hours? Keeps out the riff raff I guess
This is also my first ever trip to Portsmouth. To my intense surprise I quite like it. Gritty and port-y but with a hint of the spectacular. The sun glints on grey metal
Been bombed to bits and not entirely recovered. My favourite bits are Old Pourtsmouth - the Point where this cartoon was drawn - and the view from the outside coffee tables at Priddy's Hard (the old ammunition depot oppposite). And Portchester Castle.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
I will not support the conservatives with Farage as leader and to suggest such a thing is just your bitterness sadly
Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless
Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage
And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
The issue is, you have said you would not support the Conservatives after Partygate, after Truss, after the D-Day debacle, yet in the end you still find a reason to support them.
That is your absolute right of course but don't be surprised if no one believes you wouldn't support them under Farage.
I have said I will not support Farage and to suggest I would is just an exercise in trying to discredit my change 9f view which was 3xplained on here and indeed @Heathener and others supported that decision
I have been married to my dear wife for 60 years and I can affirm on that marriage I will not support Farage
BS
You are making a mistake here. For you, Johnson and Farage are more or less in the same category and you are failing to account for the fact that many other people see them as very different characters.
That’s missing the point.
Every PB’er can see that G, or G’s wife, or both of them, are tribal Tory voters who when it comes to it will always find whatever reason they can to justify voting Tory. There’s nothing wrong with that - it’s essentially the HY position (who incidentally G has spent many of his own posts criticising). What is so insulting to the rest of us is that everything he posts meantime is essentially dishonest, whether deliberately or otherwise.
Spare us all from this tedious feud you have with him.
What would PB be without tedious feuds? Not sure there’s a poster on here without one.
@kle4 I don't recall anything between them and any other poster. I might start one just for fun
Bring it on.
I just pray others will not get get caught in the crossfire of this epic battle, they are the true innocents in all this.
Who am I kidding? You'd chew me up in three posts flat. Truce?
I'll sleep on it. Once roused, it is hard to switch it off.
Another MOE survey but one that feels good for Labour despite being statistically insignificant.
There’s not much happening, is there?
No,it's starting to look like 40/20/15/10....or near as dammit.
People have generally made up their minds by now so can't see much change coming in the remaining 12 days.
40/20/15/10 is sub-100 seat territory for the Tories.
With FPTP, Ben, that could easily be fifty seats out either way. We don't know how much impact tactical voting will have either, nor how Reform's contribution will play out.
I'm currently expecting about 125 Tory seats but I wouldn't bet on it. Too volatile.
Good point. I'm relying on Electoral Calculus, I suspect it becomes meaningless at these sort of numbers.
Fun though.
I'm quite a big fan of EC. As long as you don't take it too literally it provides a useful benchmark.
The main caveats concern Swingback and Tactical Voting. We're more or less past the point where the former is a factor, but we won't know about the latter until the fateful day.
I expect it won't actually make that much difference, nor will it necessarily be all the same way. On the whole though the Tories will be hoping it is a dog that doesn;t bark.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
He doesn't have a vote...
In a general?
Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.
*Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.
**This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
Serious question, do the Royal Family have the vote?
Technically, there is no law stating that the Queen or members of the royal family cannot vote.
However, Parliament guidelines state it is considered unconstitutional for the Monarch or their family to vote in an election.
The official royal guidelines say the Head of State "has to remain strictly neutral with respect to political matters" and is unable to vote or stand for election.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
I will not support the conservatives with Farage as leader and to suggest such a thing is just your bitterness sadly
Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless
Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage
And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
The issue is, you have said you would not support the Conservatives after Partygate, after Truss, after the D-Day debacle, yet in the end you still find a reason to support them.
That is your absolute right of course but don't be surprised if no one believes you wouldn't support them under Farage.
I have said I will not support Farage and to suggest I would is just an exercise in trying to discredit my change 9f view which was 3xplained on here and indeed @Heathener and others supported that decision
I have been married to my dear wife for 60 years and I can affirm on that marriage I will not support Farage
BS
You are making a mistake here. For you, Johnson and Farage are more or less in the same category and you are failing to account for the fact that many other people see them as very different characters.
That’s missing the point.
Every PB’er can see that G, or G’s wife, or both of them, are tribal Tory voters who when it comes to it will always find whatever reason they can to justify voting Tory. There’s nothing wrong with that - it’s essentially the HY position (who incidentally G has spent many of his own posts criticising). What is so insulting to the rest of us is that everything he posts meantime is essentially dishonest, whether deliberately or otherwise.
Just stop being a total arsehole - there is no "us" here.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
He doesn't have a vote...
In a general?
Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.
*Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.
**This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
Serious question, do the Royal Family have the vote?
If they are not sitting members of the House of Lords yes they do. Previously most of them were disenfranchised because their various titles gave them a seat in he upper house but that’s not been the case since 1999. Technically even the King can vote but the monarch does not do so in keeping with the no politics tradition.
Writing in the Daily Telegraph, the Reform UK leader said he had never been an "apologist or supporter of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin" but that "if you poke the Russian bear with a stick, don’t be surprised if he responds".
I'm not a believer in the axiom that you should 'ignore everything after the but'...but in this case I will make an exception.
He could have avoided even this minor furore if he was not a true believer, but clearly he is - he genuinely thinks democratic organisational expansion is justification for Russian invasions.
His protestations he is not an apologist are laughably insincere as he spews forth apologies over and over again.
On topic - TSE has those click-bait headlines sorted now!
If the movement cited dictated the votes of all concerned that would work out as a 1% or 2% closure of the gap. Meanwhile the three gold standard polling companies (on past record) have the gap at 17-21%. Thoush they do all also have the Cons 5-9% clear of Ref UK
Yes, I decided to ditch my usual subtle style and go for the clickbait headlines.
I miss the Shakespeare.
Did you decide quoting Shakespeare was a custom more honoured in the breach than in the observance?
I do have a few more Shakespeare inspired headlines coming up.
It was sheer luck that so many Macbeth quotes seemed apt for the Humza Yousaf ditching the Greens/getting replaced threads.
No luck about it: there is a tide in the affairs of men...
Books will be written about how Richi chased the ebbing tide all the way out, and then got swamped
Not according to Laura Kuenssberg.
She, and she says Labour do not believe the polls.
Neither do I. Shy Tories, Rishi's Labour tax bomb, don't knows, punish Nigel surge and don't let Labour get a landslide surgecould all happen.
I was going to post that. It actually shows the opposite of what you’re saying. You need to let go of 1992 mate. This isn’t 1992. Labour might not wipe out the Tories but if you’re correct in your prognostications you wouldn’t be wasting your time on here but instead researching financial advisers. You can get 100 on BF Tories most seats. It’s largely thanks to you I’ve thrown a tenner that way as pretty fucking massive emotional hedge. But I expect to lose it.
Hear hear. Every night I sway wildly from wondering whether Mexican is just a garden-variety troll and is trollcasting, or whether he is genuinely delusional. Either way, he clearly hasn’t explored the betting markets, which is odd given this is a betting site.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
He doesn't have a vote...
In a general?
Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.
*Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.
**This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
Serious question, do the Royal Family have the vote?
Proposed electoral reform to modernise the nation:
Adopt the Eurovision voting system with the Royal Family playing the role of the judges. The points awarded by the Royals would count for 50% of the total.
Declarations would be made by videolink to a live venue where candidates would sit together in the green room.
Comments
He was first told that it wasn’t a crime. Yes, really. He was told nothing would be done.
He insisted on making a statement. When asked to sign it, he read it. It bore no relation to what he had said, included an addition of a fictitious kicking on the door of the flat his vote had been registered to (he never went there) and was full of crude and racist language. He was a Lib Dem of the kind who would stop a conversation to correct someone for not using First Australians to refer to the original inhabitants - not exactly the chap to call people P**i….
When asked, they claimed that the statement was accurate, it would take too much time to change it and they would change it later. He said he would wait. In the end they managed to write down his recorded words accurately.
All in all it took him the better part of a day to record a crime.
Oh, and no further action was taken.
Anybody who is serious about helping them should go and spend some money there.
Especially when said poster has so often attacked our HY for his blind tribalism, despite all the bad stuff.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
Russia’s manpower is not infinite. And my sense from my visit to Ukraine was of grim determination to continue the fight if needs be. I sensed no defeatism - more sadness, grief and anger
It will be interesting to see if Dura’s observations concur
It was sheer luck that so many Macbeth quotes seemed apt for the Humza Yousaf ditching the Greens/getting replaced threads.
💥EXCLUSIVE💥First Minister John Swinney has now also been dragged into the SNP election expenses stamp row
Explosive messages obtained by MoS show the FM's office manager was also involved in discussions about the use of stamps allegedly paid for by the public purse.
In one message sent to a group chat, they wrote: ‘The stamp fairy is very useful when it comes to campaigns!’
https://x.com/Georgia_Edkins/status/1804576301300264999
However, if Reform do manage to get themselves into the high teens on polling day, the chances are that they’ll do a bit better on seat count than expected, I suspect.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
But I enjoyed the finale.
I love Ncuti and have done since I first saw him in Sex Education.
Praising Humza's worth, despite his cruel hand.
Youth voter strike on the cards. Won't help the super majority
If it turns out to be futile, your former hero Putin’s career expectancy shortens considerably.
The old bastard is 71 years old. Even if he does a header out of the window tomorrow, how many years in the nursing home do you think he is dodging?
Compared to their usual level of performance actually building a school and not having it fall down on top of somebody is actually quite good. Even if it was plagued by problems.
Building it in the wrong place so it's more useless than Acland-Hood is a detail.
I love campaigning and knocking up the voters on election day.
Shiny forehead, mind.
But @Big_G_NorthWales is in his mid eighties and he’s been posting on here for decades and he’s generally cordial to almost everyone and he’s in slightly perilous health - and you just don’t attack someone with venom in that context - you can rebuke him with wit or teasing and still make your point, but in a kinder way?
Ten each for you and me.
She, and she says Labour do not believe the polls.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c722eezx9n4o
Neither do I. Shy Tories, Rishi's Labour tax bomb, don't knows, punish Nigel surge and don't let Labour get a landslide surgecould all happen.
He may not see any way out in which he personally survives. At this point he is almost certainly President *only* for life.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.223276482
As you say, their target constituencies should be obvious. A well-tuned local campaign machine really ought to be able to help them win in as many seats as the Lib Dems.
The question really is how they go about building that machine for the future. My impression of the Lib Dems is that they built theirs more or less from scratch in the 1990s rather than inheriting one from their predecessor parties. Perhaps Refuk need to find themselves a Chris Rennard?
I wish he'd stop crying.
Ruby's mum makes no sense.
I wanted the old Sutekh mask, not a CGI dog.
*Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.
**This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
I'm currently expecting about 125 Tory seats but I wouldn't bet on it. Too volatile.
Writing in the Daily Telegraph, the Reform UK leader said he had never been an "apologist or supporter of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin" but that "if you poke the Russian bear with a stick, don’t be surprised if he responds".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c722pn07w99o
It is time to end the Met.
Fun though.
I just pray others will not get get caught in the crossfire of this epic battle, they are the true innocents in all this.
The Labour lead is now 20 points
•Labour 40% (n/c)
•Conservatives 20% (-3)
•Reform 16% (+2)
•Lib Dems 12% (n/c)
•Greens 9% (+2)
•SNP 3% (+1)
Fieldwork: 19 - 21 June. Changes from 12 - 14 June.
Getting battered
And I deserve an earldom, because I'm worth it.
I'm not one to criticise that as a general approach, I tend to go by gut myself.
But when you break down all the factors at play, the apocalyptic scenarios look pretty plausuble to me.
https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/788317
Not that brilliant for Labour either voteshare wise at least, only on Corbyn 2017 levels and 3% below Blair 1997 levels
The main caveats concern Swingback and Tactical Voting. We're more or less past the point where the former is a factor, but we won't know about the latter until the fateful day.
I expect it won't actually make that much difference, nor will it necessarily be all the same way. On the whole though the Tories will be hoping it is a dog that doesn;t bark.
Edit: Damn. Missed the Belgium goal posting that.
Laters.
However, Parliament guidelines state it is considered unconstitutional for the Monarch or their family to vote in an election.
The official royal guidelines say the Head of State "has to remain strictly neutral with respect to political matters" and is unable to vote or stand for election.
He could have avoided even this minor furore if he was not a true believer, but clearly he is - he genuinely thinks democratic organisational expansion is justification for Russian invasions.
His protestations he is not an apologist are laughably insincere as he spews forth apologies over and over again.
Adopt the Eurovision voting system with the Royal Family playing the role of the judges. The points awarded by the Royals would count for 50% of the total.
Declarations would be made by videolink to a live venue where candidates would sit together in the green room.